Hey, what's going on moon gang, welcome back to another episode of dumb money, so the fourth trading week of june is now officially in the books. So that means it's time for a recap of what's been going on with amc and then i'll be doing a breakdown of what i'm personally looking for as we move forward in this video, of course, we'll be looking at ortex some of the data trends. I also have one important thing: i want to clarify getting a lot of questions about it, we'll be doing a chart breakdown and really i want to focus on some interesting activity. I saw in the options market right before the market closed on friday.

So with all that being said, let's hop right into it. Amc closed out on friday at 54.06 and then after hours. It was up ever so slightly quick reminder that we do have july 4th coming up. So just so, you know the market will be closed on monday july 5th, just as a nice public service announcement in terms of its chart.

This is amc's daily chart right here. The the technical structure is a wedge we shot up and now we see lower highs higher lows. This is classic signs of consolidation. Over the past week, amc did drop 8.77 percent, but in the past month it's up 176 percent and from the start of 2021.

Until this very moment, we're up 2 450 percent overall, the name of the gain is to wait for this consolidation to finally end and we're looking for the next really leg of expansion: the stock market. This is very, very common. It ebbs and it flows, consolidation, expansion, consolidation expansion, so we saw consolidation expansion, we're now consolidating we're waiting for that next leg of expansion. So i know many: we have the apes who have been in this community.

A lot of us joined this community at very different times, so the really the longer you've been in this community. The longer you've been in ape you're, probably sitting very, very well right now, like a huge percentage gain and - and i get this so overall - i just want to - i guess - offer a little bit of comfort of please understand that for many of the older apes we've Been in this for quite a while, and whether you got an 8 9 10 11, 12, 13 14, there were times that looked rough uh, we've all been there where your p l was not looking the best. So if you're a newer ape and you got in potentially above 5406, this is kind of the name of the game. Where really we've been consolidating and at times, maybe it wasn't the most ideal, p l, but with enough patience and discipline, it ended up thus far.

Turning out very very well and personally, i think, that's a realistic scenario moving forward. So that's what i'm gon na continue to look for. I mean really come on. Let's put a little bit of perspective on this ever since may 21st, which is when the most recent move started, we're up 350.

So to me, in my own opinion, when people are saying: oh we're not winning amc is dead. It's a dead cat, don't bother with that at all. How look at the scoreboard folk look at all this performance? Amc has been doing exceedingly well and, as i'm about to explain moving forward, i mean i just think the people betting against it are in a in a serious amount of trouble in more of a detailed view. Here's a look at amc's two-hour chart.

This just kind of shows you we're looking for this wedge breakout and we like i've, said this at nauseum. This is the resistance between 60 and 62.. We've gotten above it a few times and then we're rejected somewhere, 63 64 65, and it comes right back into this so this week, coming up once again, that's what we're looking for we're. Looking for the support between 50 and 52 to hold, we also have support around 45 and this bottom wedge.

But really we want this wedge breakout above 60 and 62 once again, but we want this time to be different where we finally hold and eventually go up and test the current all-time high of 72.62, and we see how the stock reacts to that. So that's more of like an intraday basis of what i'll be looking for in terms of the data. So, on friday there was a net borrow against amc of half a million, the current short interest, probably just below 19 utilization, pretty high 91 million and the shares on loan probably pushing 97.98 million. So this is the question i'm getting a lot of.

Why is the average age of shares on loan really really dropping? So there's two mathematical explanations from this, because we have gone from about 57 58 days, all the way down to 31.. So just think about how average is computed, there's two things that could be going on and i think one is more likely than the other option one is you had a a lot of these older people who have been in the position as in betting, against amc Shares on loan they've been renting them out. Finally, covering. I don't really think the price action recently suggests that maybe it does to a little bit of a degree, but the other way you could lo lower in average, is buy new shorts.

And let me point this out to you right here. As soon as the average duration of shares on loans started, dropping look at what started. Picking up, we went from 78 million on loan all the way up to 97, as in there's new new people. Right here shares on loan.

The number has been going up up and up so, if they're new, that means it has to be dropping the average so we're seeing the loan go up and also right here. I could even show you this. On top of that, the number of loans per day has been going up, so to me mathematically. I think this is much more fair explanation of why we're seeing the average age of loans drop.

It's just there's new loans, there's new shorts to me, that's exactly! What's going on and we're even seeing a jump right now in the short interest so from i i think this is. Can it 100 explain what's going on? Is it most likely a combination of the two? Yes, but i think the stronger the the bigger proportion and amount of the combination is the fact that there's just new shorts and we're seeing it in the fact that on loan is going up, we're seeing a higher short interest all that stuff. That exactly explains why. This is going down so overall.

I i'm not going to get too worried about this, because the real numbers, in my mind, like they all, tell you little different parts of the overall picture, but when you have the short interest, the shares on loan, the utilization. Those are the main three things that i look at and these other ones kind of tell you the story of how we got there. I think that's the the best and most realistic way to look at it, but overall, even if it's the old shorts cycling out of their position and then getting a new one that in no way helps their p, l at all they're still at a loss, and It doesn't help the short interest. All it does is drive this particular number down so like i don't think they would be intentionally doing that, because we can see right here that we can catch them.

We can see the short interest that isn't changing and we know that their p l isn't changing if they're cycling the positions. So i'm in no way worried about this and i strongly believe it's just new shorts entering the game. So that's kind of your quick update on ortex. The thing i really want to talk about is right before the market closed on friday.

I think this is pretty interesting and i think it's pretty telling look at this in the last. What 13 minutes of the day there were some considerable bullish bets being made on amc for three different expiration dates so, first july, 2nd july, 2nd right here we had um at 56 and 55. So, with three minutes to go and with four minutes to go in the day in total, that was 280, 000 being bet on a 73 strike and a 54, the 54 had 250 000 and the 73 strike had 30 000. And then, if we go back a little bit more um about five seconds before that, one we had one for july 9th and that one was a 57 bet, that's 200, 000 and then for the july monthlies we had 128 000 bet.

So literally, in the last 15 minutes of the day, really the last 12 minutes of the day, someone or a group of people bet 600 000 on amc going up and right here, 280 000 of it was going up very very quickly and then, from july 9th July 16th - that was another 320 000. So in total we have over a half million dollars on amc going up and going up very very soon. Now it's not a perfect metric to always follow the big money. I'm not saying that! That's like a perfect way to trade, but a lot of the times, especially in the stock market.

Big money can know what's going on, especially before us, the retail traders, the dumb money, know what's happening. So i think it's interesting right before the market closed. Someone was sneaking in 600, 000 in favor of amc, going up very, very interested in to see how this plays out. So overall, that's what i have for you in this amc weekend update it to me.

It's just. I love this picture. We shoot up we're consolidating. We just need to be patient and disciplined and wait for that.

Next move upward. Of course, i'm not a financial advisor. I cannot guarantee anything, but if i'm just looking at the data trends on or ortex what we're seeing on the charts and the fact that there's some big money still betting on amc man, that makes me pretty confident in amc going higher. But, of course i cannot guarantee squat.

I would love to get your thoughts on amc in a comment below if you enjoyed this video, and you want to help me out with the youtube algorithm. You know, like comment subscribe all that good stuff and until i catch you next time for me and chair best of luck in the markets, you.