What up fellow! Deens Welcome back to another episode of the Market Minute with me! Matt And man oh man, do we have a lot to talk about. First of all, we finally snaap the losing streak. So a little bit of Applause for that, and of course we'll be diving into the price, action, the technicals, and all the things I'm personally looking to for the remainder of this week, but that's where we're going to have to get into a little bit of the political sphere because if you haven't been paying attention, the USA government is once again looking at another shutdown. So I want to talk about that? and I have some stories here on the ridiculous nature of the fact that another elected official was caught doing something with money and that type of thing that they probably shouldn't have been doing.

So obviously I want to dive into that as well Before we get into all that if you enjoy this type of content, If you enjoy this type of daily update related to the market, the economy and politics obviously, let me know in a comment below. But most importantly, smash the like button and don't forget to subscribe. And now that I got that annoying stuff out of the way, let's rock the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Clos higher on Monday snapping a 4day losing streak. Well, that's pretty good.

Here's how things actually looked at first. it was a little rocky right after market open. We kind of came down a little bit, but around 11 it was clear that the Bulls were in control at least on the day and the Spy continued to push higher and higher a little bit higher than I wanted it to go I'll touch on that at the end of the video, but the Qes continue to push and that one ended up pretty solid. So overall, the Spy closed out the day today Monday September 25th up 42% while the NASDAQ more of the tech heavy sector was up 47% So all around pretty good now.

I want to take a step back really quickly just cuz we are in the final week of September and I want to let you know that the seasonality of this time period pretty much favors the Bears as in not necessarily the best time to be a bull the final week of September Is Right Here Right Where My cursors and it's pretty much a selloff into the conclusion of the month. Now obviously this is by no means a guarantee I just want to let you know where we are in the grand scheme of things. But hey, good news is once we get about a third of the way through October pretty much Rip City from a seasonal basis till the end of the year. So something positive to look forward to.

Now in the short term, what might make this seasonality play out as in what might make the market continue to go? To the downside? well look no further than the US government. The US Federal government is headed into a shutdown. What does it mean? who's hit and what's next? The Federal government is heading toward a shutdown that will disrupt many services squeeze workers and Royal Politics as Republicans in the house, fueled by hard right demands for deep Cuts force a confrontation over federal spending. The real Crux of the issue here is basically the number Tag of how much is currently earmark to go to Ukraine Obviously, we have some quote unquote Republican hardliners that don't want to continue to give money to the best of my understanding.

that's what the main argument's over. When no funding legislation is enacted, federal agencies have to stop all non-essential work and will not send paychecks as long as the shutdown last that the ticking clock on this situation is the end of September So we get into October and this is not passed. the US government will go into a shutdown and obviously if that happens, things will not look so good. Pressure mounts on McCarthy ahead of shutdown deadline as Democratic Republican Boil blames in fighting house Speaker Kevin McCarthy needs to unite his caucus to pass a spending bill before the government hits Saturday's shutdown deadline.

obviously. mark your calendars cuz this would not be so good for the market for a variety of reasons, the first of which is related to a ratings agency and a potential downgrade and obviously we're going to be getting into that representative. Brandon Bole said inter Republican funding would be partly to blame if there is a shutdown. The house reconvenes tomorrow Tuesday to continue budget negotiations.

Obviously, fingers crosses something will happen with it, but I'm personally curious with the timing cuz we're about to go into the second GOP Primary debate. So maybe this is all a showand tell type of a thing, but obviously we're going to have to wait to figure that out. So right here, this is why it would be particularly negative, particularly bearish if we go to a shutdown. Us shutdown would be negative for credit rating.

according to Moody's don't forget, Moody's is one of the three major ratings agencies you have Moody's you have fit and you have S&P and recent L, it hasn't been so good In terms of the US credit worthiness and what these analysts are really saying about it, not the best case we want to be a US Government shutdown would reflect negatively on America's credit rating according to Moody's investor service. the only remaining major credit greater to assign the Us a top rating as in Fitch has already downgraded and S&P has already downgraded us. While government Debt Service payments would not be impacted and a shortlived shutdown would be unlikely to disrupt the economy, it would underscore the weakness of Us institutional government strength relative to other AAA AAA rated sovereigns that we have highlighted in recent years. A government shutdown would demonstrate the significant constraints that are intensifying political polarization continue to put us fiscal policymaking during a period of decline.

fiscal strength driven by persistent fiscal deficit and deteriorating debt affordability. What does all those fancy schmancy, nerdy financial terms mean? It means basically there's no adults in the room. It means the US government as a whole, does it really deserve to be the top? Tier Credit worthiness when we can't keep our house in our own basic order. Obviously, it truly is an embarrassment.

and I Actually don't blame the rating agencies at all because when this stuff happens again and again, and when there's political gridlock. and when there's so much political polarization to the point that every single time it comes around, it's like, oh, are we going to shut down if that's a legitimate thing that the rest of the world has to act. I I don't think think is that crazy of a question, Be like, okay, maybe it shouldn't be top here now. Obviously, when it comes to politics and the government, yes, there's always the he saided the she said the left, the right, the middle, the grayer I Get all that.

But for people who aren't so much following the day-to-day manua of politics, generally, you just blame the person who's ultimately in control. whether good or bad. We end up blaming the President just because not everyone is taking in every piece of news, knowing who to quote unquote appropriately, blame So right now. Biden Even though on this particular issue, he's not really the one stopping the vote, he's taking a lot of the blame to the point that even mainstream media is starting to point out how the average voter and I'm not really commenting on how informed they are or aren't is starting to not be so happy with the situation.

It's a simple question of job approval. Barely 40% approve of Joe Biden's performance and we have to know 56% that's the highest disapproval rating for president. B Took office. That's significant.

Yeah, so let's take a look at what's driving that too here in one big area. No surprise, it is the economy. Look at this contrast, this is April Of 21 months after Biden took office, nearly half the country was satisfied with where the economy was. Then Now barely one in four Americans satisfied with the economy.

There's also this: we found an enthusiasm gap between the two parties. We ask folks on a scale of 1 to 10 how enthusiastic are you about the President election and you can see Republican to Democrat there is a gap right there. Where's the lag for Democrats Found a couple places non voters you could see significantly less enthusiastic than white voters. and then how about this age? Gap The youngest group of Voters who Democrats trying to get excited and motivated.

Nearly 50 point gap there. So really an uphill battle to try to make sure voters don't stay home if you're Democrats Yeah, that's it. and the problem for Democrats too the lack of enthusiasm about the election. There's clearly a of enthusi about the president because we as primary voters on the Democratic side.

do you want options next year besides Biden 59% said yes they do. This is not a normal number for an incumbent. we as the same question year before Donald Trump sought reelection of Republicans only 37% wanted more choices. Then that's a very high number like the inverse of each other.

These two numbers exactly. And so yeah it raises the question to what else concerns. Democrats and I Think this get sort of the elephant in the room here. Bid's age Fitness I Mean look at this contrast we have talked so much about: Donald Trump The indictments, the legal Wes They are clearly a major or moderate concern to the majority of Americans, but Biden's age and fitness for office almost three out of four in our poll.

this is Democrats Republicans Independence majorate concern for them. How about Trump He's only a few years younger than Biden A full 27 point gap right there. This is looming as a major problem for the president too. It's notable because his strategy is to try to laugh off concerns about his age.

We'll have to see if they revisit that strategy. All right, Fascinating. Of course not, cuz it's a legitimate issue that we should be paying attention to. Um, but the fact that this is even getting to Meet the Press The fact that they're bringing this up tells me how bad of an issue it currently is.

but that's not the only thing plaguing what's going on with politicians and the general populace is disdain for elected officials. Senator Bob Menendez suggests cash found in bribery raid came from personal savings. Now if you don't know about this story, I've been covering it, but basically he had about over $400,000 worth of gold, a car, mortgage payments all coming from places that it shouldn't have been coming through and obviously now this is all alleged. I Want to throw that out there I don't need Bobby boy Su me here, but the Federal prosecutors seem like they have a pretty strong case here.

Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey suggested that the cash seized by federal investigators from his home came from his personal savings account. Investigators found more than 480,000 in cash hiding in clothing closets and his safe. Truly crazy Menendez vows to fight corruption charges and stay in the Senate uh which I think is actually a slap in the face. this will be the here yet.

But as I have stated throughout this whole process I firmly believe that when all the facts are presented, not only will I be exonerated, but I still will be the New Jersey senior senator doubt 30 years I have thousands let in comment Do you think Bobby boy going to make it back savings account which I have kept for emergencies and because of the history of my family facing confiscation in Cuba Now this may seem oldfashioned, but these were monies drawn from my old fashion old fashioned that I have lawfully derived over those 30 years. I Want to speak directly to the people of New Jersey As I started these remarks, you're the reason why I have dedicated the entirety of my adult life to improving the lives of hardworking New Jerseyans and all. Americans Some of the people calling for my resignation for political reason to say I have lost the trust of the people of New Jersey and you did that. Couldn't be more wrong.

No. I I would say that that's pretty spot on. Funny development from the story fman plans to return donation tied to Menendez in envelop stuff with $100 bills according to his spokesperson. So the fact that betterman is in one way or not associated with this of course because this is how all of our politicians are.

Uh, side note: with all this, we read this morning that Bob Mendez the lawyer he hired is the exact same lawyer that Hunter Biden had to previously use. So obviously it's all incestuous. Speaking of our government and politics and the craziness. One last thing here is who the IRS will go after $600 Vos Etsy stores Taylor Swift Fans Who the IRS will not go after politicians and billionaires.

And obviously everyone's poking fun at this now because the IRS is going to know if you sold Taylor Swift Ays Tickets It's in a big shift. Anyone who took more than $600 a year from reselling tickets could be in for a tax surprise. So yeah, we all know where our government is putting their efforts, their resources. Obviously it's always to come after the little guy.

never really seemingly going for that high level worth of Justice which I'm no frustrates you. It obviously frustrates me. and I guess we probably shouldn't be holding our breath on this getting fixed anytime soon. Now let's switch it back up and talk about the market.

So obviously, as you know, today was a green day, we snapped a 4-day losing streak. but with the government turmoil and also some of the other things going on in the background I Do think there's more downside in our future? I'm not calling for anything extreme. I'm not saying that there's going to be a cataclysmic depression recession massive yeat off a cliff. but if we're just looking at the basic price, action, and technicals, yes, I Do believe there is more downside, especially when we consider seasonality.

But before we talk all about that, I Do want to let you know the upcoming major macroeconomic event for Tuesday September 26th. Uh, before the Market opens an hour and a half, we get building permits, but then a half hour into the trading day, we're going to get the consumer confidence number and new home sales. So yes, there could be a bit of a jolt of I would say volatility because of that Wednesday The normal crude oil stuff Thursday should be exciting because we get the Q2 quarter over quarter GDP numbers. so that's going to be interesting.

And I also want to note that Fed chair pal the chairman of the FED will be speaking at Market close so that one could clearly have an impact and then then close out the week we are getting the Euro Zone CPI numbers and in the US we're going to get the Pce numbers. All very, very important, so make sure you're paying attention to all of that. I Also want to point out how hey, first of all, if you haven't signed up for this, what you're looking at right now is a free newsletter. It comes out every single weekend within the newsletter.

I break down what happens in the previous week and I break down what I'm looking forward to in the upcoming week. I Let you know all the major macroeconomic events: I Go through all the earnings that I think you're going to be interested in On top of that I give you the seasonality for every single individual trading day. So for example, Monday was pretty bearish, but obviously today ended up being bullish. for Tuesday, it's more of a neutral day on Wednesday it's a bit bullish.

on Thursday pretty neutral and then on Friday we conclude the week on a bearish note. I do a recap of the option strategies and I'll let you know how that went for today and then I call out interest charts of interest that I think are going to maybe be breaking out breaking down some consolidation but feel free to check it out. It's free Macros, Locals.com it is in the description of the video. but speaking of that option strategy starting off the week, not on the best Note went one for two so this was a call Credit spread with the Spy needed it below 432.

Well we concluded the day at 43223 so not the best luck there there. but on the Q's this one hit needed it below 360 and obviously if you look at where the Q's Clos out today we were at 35961. so thus far on the week 1 for two last week went 6 for S and the week before that went 6 for8. So there is some improvements that can obviously be made, but as of right now I think I'm on the path to something pretty interesting.

Now to talk about the technicals in the price action that I do think is really really important recently the overall market and I'm using the Spy ETF we were trading to the upside. Then we made this triangle also known as a pendant with lower highs, higher lows. This is known as a bullish pendant. Obviously we broke to the downside on Tuesday the 19th, it Wicked down, closed back up thinking okay, maybe we revert here.

but then we we had the Fomc meeting the results and share pal speaking and the SCP the summary of economic projections. Unfortunately, there was a breakdown. this led to a gap down and a selloff which led to another selloff. This time we are catching ourselves just around 430.

Obviously we dip below 430, but we're right back up on top. Not the most surprising because if you're paying attention to the options Market you know there is a lot of Premium set to expire on the put side at 430. So yeah, no surprise there that they want all that money. The gamma exposure to expire.

ideally worthless. wanting it below or really, they would want it below 430 if you're long on the put premium. But really, the people selling it the dealers, they want it above 430 so it expires worthless. So very much watching that pivot level of 430 in the Spy.

Now obviously if it goes below 429 I would argue that sets up an opportunity for the next low just below 426. But if there's a recovery above, we'll call it 434. I would then be watching 436 And on top of that, there is an upside Gap fill to 43843 the low from Wednesday September 20th. so make sure you're watching that.

In terms of the cues. Very similar situation. there is support between 354 four really just below 355 and 356. So this dollar region a bit of support.

but once again, if it can get above and hold above about 362 then I'd be looking for the upside Gap field to 36446. Overall, we are seeing lower highs. in the Q's we're not seeing a lower low, but in the Spy we are seeing a lower low. Which leads me to believe, especially with seasonality that the Bears are currently in control I would want to see a new Fresh high or the breaking of the pattern of new fresh lows for the Bulls to have a chance at.

Maybe they regain control. But as of now, when I look at the daily chart, when I look at the weekly chart and when I consider seasonality and just the craziness of our current political sit I Would very much think that the Bears have a little bit of a favor now. Obviously nothing when it comes to the markets ever guaranteed. It's more of looking for the opportunities when the deck is stacked into your favor for obviously an opportunity to potentially profit.

So whatever you doing, even if you're the most bullish, the most bearish, you have to have your control and risk. That's the only thing thing that really is going to make you survive the marathon of active trading. One trade if it's profitable isn't going to make you but One trade if you, blow out could definitely break you. so I Just want to leave you with those little words of wisdom before we conclude this.

Obviously, if you enjoy this type of content, don't forget to like subscribe comment. All that good Jazz helps me out with the algorithm Lords above. I Want to give you a quick reminder that if you're watching this on Monday September 25th I will not be able to do my normal stream schedule for the remainder of this week Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Going to be a little bit iffy cuz I'll be doing my show from the GOP debate. so obviously make sure you're watching all this on.

Rumble Make sure you have your notifications on I'll be putting out content I Just don't know the content schedule quite yet so obviously pay attention to Twitter and all that. I'll try to keep you updated to the best of my ability I Appreciate you hanging out I Appreciate you spending a second of your day with me. Thank you thank you thank you I'll catch you in the next one. Have a good one.

Peace.