I don't know foreign brother Good morning, good morning, good morning. Welcome back to the Matt core show. Today is Thursday June 15th I Want to say maybe maybe yes, no I don't know if you believe in the Gregory encounter and whatnot now I already see it going off in chat. You guys are thinking why is he starting early today Well, unbeknownst to me until I checked the economic calendar, there is another report today at 8 30 in a mere nine, eight minutes and Counting we get the retail sales report.

So this week's been a little bit wild. we went CPI we went PPI we went Fomc decision we went Jerome pal speech and now we're going retail sales and then tomorrow we have consumer sentiment and two fed speakers speaking so uh, absolutely wild week if you're waking up from under your rock and not paying attention to the market I Hope you went to sleep under your said rock with a bunch of call options because you're really green right now. But I'm here to tell you that I think the tides are officially shifting I think the high we saw in the market yesterday will be the high water mark for some time to come because of what happened with the Fomc decision and also what Jerome Powell said. For those of you who miss it, just just give you a little bit of a synopsis.

a little bit of a tldr, a little bit of a flu veto. You need to know that they did not change the FED fund rate. It went Flat flat flat flat rat. we were at five percent.

we're at five percent. They didn't change it. But what's interesting is they kind of telegraphed the fact that they're going to do most likely two more rate hikes. Another 50 bips is now what's expected, which was a quote unquote hawkish surprise.

and for the purpose of this conversation and the current state of monetary policy can be construed as bearish. Now the market sold yesterday and then into the close we bounce a little bit and I call that move as BS I do see it on Reddit I see it on Twitter I see it on Finn twitted in general sense that it was still bullish. There's literally I was listening to multiple Twitter space calls I looked at every X8 now Hawking their Discord Community saying hey man I know it's good, we're still good. Look how much money I make I'm gonna be increasing my prices but folks I I very very much believe the high we saw yesterday is going to be the high for some period of time and this has nothing to do with the short term.

I'm not talking about what's happening in the next five minutes, 15 minutes, hours, or even in the short term of a couple days, but I'm telling you over the next couple weeks next couple months I Really believe the region that we're in right now, especially the high from yesterday. It's going to prove to be at least in that medium term prediction, a high because the FED we have the reason don't fight the FED for a reason and it's because historically it proves to be very true. Whichever way the FED wants the market to go, it ends up going that way. So once again, this isn't a short-term prediction.

but by the time we kind of hear what's going on in July which now the odds are spiking for 25 bips, right? Like I I Just don't see the Bulls they they've been winning Yes, uh, like over this really this whole year. Well Really. From October until now, they've been crushing it from the start of the year. until now, it's been crushing it.

and over the past four, five, six weeks, they've been really crushing it. But I Think the Bulls are about to run out of steam? Think about it this way. obviously we've ripped to a certain High. The question for you is what's going to keep pushing it higher I Don't think we're really seeing any more bullish catalysts.

In fact, I Think we're starting to see some bearish. Catalyst Yes, in terms of seasonality, the end of June is a little bit weak. I Guess you could fairly argue that July is pretty strong just from a seasonal standpoint. But looking at what's going on with monetary policy, the FED is continually reminding us they did this all of last year.

They're doing it again this year that they are still aggressively fighting inflation. To aggressively fight inflation, you have to push downward on the economy, which obviously has the secondary effect of causing stocks to also go down. Many people were in the market for this concept of oh, the Fed's going to cut rates. Actually, in fact, the markets were pricing in in 2023 that we'd be cutting rates.

There are professionals paid professionals who thought we were gaining rate Cuts in 2022 and yet we could sit here in the internet land and know that that's not going to happen. And on top of that, you have a little bit of Fomo. Yes, we had key technical breakouts. so I think people got trapped into it and as we if we come back over which I don't know I'm not Clairvoyant I don't have a crystal ball I don't have any of that information.

but if the market starts to fall back over, especially in some of these major names, the Spy the cues Tesla Nvidia Netflix Apple meta all of them. if it starts to come back over I think you have a lot of people who recently bought who are going to get trapped and they're going to get scared and when we start to break down, it's gonna really increase the velocity of the capitulation. That's my prediction. That's when I see what's going on and that's how I'm positioned in the market right now I have one active trade and that's spy puts spy byputs for the end of June and most likely after today.

I'm going to end up getting some Tesla puts as well. but obviously I'm going to explain all that when the time comes. I need to. well wait for the Bell to go.

Dingy ding ding ding. So anyway, that's the TL DR of this situation. Mark it's been rippity skippity doo-dah but I believe there are various signs showing it's really close to peaking. It might not have been yesterday, it might not be today.

I don't know, but I'm feeling confident we're close in that time zone and obviously I'm going to put my money where my mouth is because I've done the DD on this situation and I feel confident. Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong. Um, but I all I know is the risk reward of this situation is something I'm willing to expect. Obviously that's the beauty of the market.

We all have our own thoughts and opinions and if you're confident enough, you could put your money where your mouth is. I by no means want anyone just following me I Expect you to do your own research, have confidence in your own play. I Really just do this to share my own thoughts and opinions with you and learn from you because I know there's a lot a very intelligent like expert traders in chat that I could probably learn a thing or two off of. So when I say these types of things, they're my own thoughts and opinions.

By no means should you just blindly be following someone. not just me, but everyone on the internet. You gotta do these things yourself. You have to take a little bit of responsibility for your own decisions, especially when you're in a highly volatile market.

So a little bit of a reminder there. So here's the dealio for today. At 8 30, we're getting retail sales so hopefully our boy Rick Centelli comes on because whenever we get to listen to Rick we know it's a good day and I fully expect you guys to be blowing up Rick's in chat. Please please please I mean Rick deserves The guy is an expert.

The guys the guy is basically a market. Titan So we're gonna be listening to Rick and then we'll see what they have. Then I have just the breakdown of what really happened with the FED decision. Then we're going to be getting into the SCP uh, the summary of economic projections.

Then I have a little bit of an update for some individual stocks. We'll talk about seasonality and maybe we'll come up with some game plans for today. So that's pretty much the deal. Uh I Hope you guys are cool with it and I think you are because you're in here.

So good morning, good morning, good morning! This is now the third day in the row that you guys have joined me early. so I truly appreciate that you guys are waking up at the crack of dawn just to hang out here in this chaotic internet-based zoo. and that's really nice. I Think that's very, very kind of all of you.

Uh, so before this gets going, I do want to let you know that there's a a little bit of breaking news and it is right here. European Central Bank The ECB equivalent to our Federal Reserve equivalent to our Fed uh raises rates by 25 basis points after fed Ops to pause. So remember the ECB they're kind of lagging behind us. We started our rate hike Journey a couple months before they did, so it makes sense that now that we're even in this pause period that they're still going a little bit behind us.

So that's some breaking news that just came out I guess four minutes ago. So I want to let you know that Ecb's decision and I also want you to know that right now stock future slip after Fed signals, it will restart the rate hike. So if you want to know what's going on with the market before retail sales basically this was from the decision yesterday. very bearish.

We popped in to close this movement right here from I don't know basically the time of Jerome Powell speaking to the end of the market I'm calling Baloney Balagna Balagna Balogna I Don't believe it at all and that's exactly what I Like to see a fade into the pre-market post-market into pre-market session. I Believe that will be continuing today, but more on that in just one second. Let's see what in the world is going on with retail sales. Yes, there will be a market impact from this.

Get Ready Get Ready Get Ready Get Ready Get Ready Get Ready. Uh, for right now, the Futures Market is at four thousand, four hundred and one. That's where we're at right before this announcement. So let's see what really happens.

4401 Let's see how it impacts the market. Give us the squad box right here on: CNBC We are just a few seconds away from several pieces of data. We've got initial jobless claims may retail sales import prices much more Rick Santelli is standing by. Take it away before we have the list.

That's about that long indeed. Okay, let's start out with import prices down six tenths of one percent. Nearly as expected. We're expecting down half for one percent.

If you strip out petroleum down two tens, that's a tenth more than expected, and the year over year import prices down 5.9 That's a big drop. Following down 4.8 let's shift to export prices, shall we? On a month over month basis down 1.9 percent, we're expecting only down one 110. That follows up to 10 sets a big reversal. and finally, export prices year over year down 10.1 percent.

We're expecting a little over eight. and the rear view mirror was minus 5.9 Initial jobless claims: 262 000. That's 1 000 more than the last look. Actually, it equals the last look.

We just had a revision last week's 261 000 becomes 262 000. so it is unchanged. However, the last time we had a number as high as 262 thousand. You have to go back to the last week in October of 2021.

and if we look at continuing claims: one million, Seven Hundred and Seventy Five thousand, very close to expectations. Once again, that's below 1.8 million. Psychological level: We haven't been above 1.8 million since the last week in April. All right, let's do retail sales up three tenths of one percent.

That's a pretty nice number. Follow going up four tens. of course. This is the advanced read, so it will be subject to change in about a week and a half.

Two weeks. strip out Autos Number still stays positive up. one tenth exactly is expectanced about Autism gas. It jumps.

It jumps up to four tenths. One percent Double the expectations. Double expectations. So X autos and X gas.

That's a powerful number up four tens. When was the last time we had a number that strong? Well in the rear view mirror? Six tenths becomes five tenths. The control group moves up two tenths exactly as expected. Do you think we're done? But we're not because we still have Empire manufacturing and Empire is up six point six percent.

And that's pretty nice because we've had a run of some pretty large negative numbers. And if you look in the rear view mirror, minus 10.4 Uh, isn't so bad. Prior to that, of course we have minus 24.6 So this is indeed a good number Philly Fed minus 13.7 The bad news there is that is now the 10th, the 10th consecutive negative month that we've had on Philly business at minus 13.7 it's one of the smaller ones. as a matter of fact, it's the second smallest negative outside of January when we're down 8.9 If we summarize based on what the Market's doing, well, we're at 380 a little bit now.

Coming back. Where are we now? around 380.8 So let's call it 381. to your note, yields 476 before the number 474. Now all these yields are higher than yesterday.

You want to pay very close attention. A good tenure resistance in the mid 380s. Wow, that's a lot of numbers Becky Back to you Rick and Marvel at that that was pretty unbelievable to Wrangle all of those numbers Nobody Does It everyone Marvel Thank you Rick Um, joins us right now with more on this and Steve I Have such data fatigue after this week with the CPI the PPI everything from the FED but these are some pretty important numbers too. I Guess retail sales jump out since they were stronger than expected.

You've got the jobless claims taking a little higher. and as Rick pointed out the highest level we've seen since October 2021 Market coming down a little bit if I had to point out something else. maybe the Philly fed some continuing bad news there. I'm going to Echo The words of Philly I'm gonna Echo the words of our cameraman uh Brian I came on and goes Steve Finish strong so uh, no fatigue, no fatigue Becky You just, you know, sit up straight, have another coffee here and we're going to get through these numbers here.

I'll start where you ended up there, which is those claims numbers. Maybe we have now shifted to a higher rate of claims, but I will say and Rick tell me if I'm wrong here. We don't really have much in terms of the continuing claims. That's the area you would look to see if people again it's a week behind, but we're still below that 1 8 number that seems to be the number that is a top or a ceiling here.

So we're going to watch that because it is possible that in a still strong job market people lose their jobs and get uh hired back right away. Or maybe they don't file for claims right away? We don't know, but that's the number. I would watch to see if there's real deterioration in the job market uh, at face value. Take that day, we're up now I Have to ask Rick because I've been looking for this number up I think I just got it here Rick am I right that the control group was zero two are you there buddy? um yes, control group was two tenths of one percent I feel like Rick is the little weak because last month we originally were at seven tenths which dropped down to six ten.

So yeah, but this is popped to life a little bit recently this control area and I was gonna make that point about all of this stuff retailers captures uh you know, down one down one percent it was up four and a half the non-store retailers that captures the internet down three tenths, it was up six and a half percent. The idea is we had, uh, we we reached a decent level in um uh uh, the mar the the April numbers. that's the beginning of the quarter. We've maintained that level which is what you want to do so at least in these numbers.

and and Becky nobody does a better job than you when it comes to picking apart with the retailers is just compliment everyone one of these National numbers it seems like the consumer keeps on keeping on you had a good uh uh, give back or a good bonus or a tax cut if you want to call it. In terms of uh, gas prices coming down, that probably will continue again so that money was put to use, the consumer didn't really hold back and I think another thing to point out is these will be real gains, right? Four tenths was the um, uh, upside on retail sales. One tenth was the Re was the CPI number. so it's a real gain of three tenths rather than some of the other numbers we've seen before that we've deflated away those or inflated away those gains.

These stick as real gains that will go into GDP and I'll have to see over the weekend or over Friday whether or not people are going to up their GDP forecast of that second quarter. That's been the surprise q1 Q2 have come in and on the Uh fed I Just want to know if Rick if you don't mind for a second Rick Your conviction yesterday was um that the FED is not going to do it and I was thinking if I had to you know, come back as a different person I would certainly like to come back with your conviction about the future on that one Give us new inputs right? We try to Monitor and and decide where things are going but based on everything I See now What? I Think we're going to see uh in the next CPI report on I believe it's July 12. Market Breaking down a little bit, the FED most likely had its last rating spaghetti. I Do think that the pause or skip or whatever anyone wants to call it may have more lasting capabilities.

I've got one Rick that's my. that's my. that's what I think they do look optionality optionality I think July is open and I think everybody says the same thing. It's going to depend on the data we get between here and and then right? Yes and Greg Yip Was on the show yesterday.

He did a great job. He wrote a nice article and a postmortem on the FED meeting. But yes, the markets. the FED uh.

there's a lot of interaction going on between them. It's going to be really important to see which side of the mid 380s 10-year note yields close on tomorrow to close out a very wild week. Good job gentlemen. This has been a heck of a week.

You guys have covered it like total crows that you are. It is strong. There's no data tomorrow. Is there please? I'm I'm off.

You don't care. Rick Is there is there data tomorrow? Yes, there's light data. Nothing heavy, just light data tomorrow morning. Yes.

Okay, something to look forward to. Steve Good luck fishing. You've earned the trip. Rick I'll see you back here tomorrow.

Thank you guys! Nationwide Labor issues and the Fed's decision to pause interest rate hikes with former United Airlines CEO Oscar Munoz Plus yeah inside the market Airlines Stay tuned. You're watching squat box in this CNBC No, you're watching the Matt core show. That's what you're watching. Okay, uh, enough of the complimenting.

Let's get into it. So yes, uh, before we just got the retail sales numbers which were an increase of 0.1 or a tenth and the expectation was unchanged. Uh, if you look at jobless claims, came in about 20 000 higher than expected. But anyway.

ECB Right before that, 10 minutes before that raised their Central their rate by 25 bips. So that was some news from this morning. Uh, let's see how we update this. The stock features should still be slipping.

Yeah, there we go. We're going down down. Uh yeah, we're coming into a interesting zone right here. Interesting.

Zone if we snap if your futures Market Trader If we snap like, let's just call it 82 Plus or minus. Like three points right where my cursor is. Uh, basically, if we get below this low that we saw yesterday I Think we officially have that high water mark? Just my opinion. do what you think is appropriate.

Treasury yields rise as investors that just fed fund rate. No. Sherlock Obviously, treasure yields are gonna rise. I Mean we're They're signaling that we're getting two more rate hikes.

Pal indicates at least two more rate hikes ahead. After pause, this was the surprise of yesterday. The fact that they didn't change the Fed rate was no surprise. In fact, going into it, we knew that that was going to happen with about a 94 95 certainty.

That wasn't the surprise. The surprise was this: I I Know that reveal wasn't that you're probably like, oh, wow, you like We're really setting it up as like a massive reveal. What's the next thing you're gonna show Matt if that is your name and then I just showed you a white piece of paper with blue dots and you're probably like wow, that wasn't as, uh, jaw-dropping as I thought it was going to be. Well, first of all, this left column I want you to know that that's the prediction for 2023.

I Don't know if you've checked your calendar lately, but we're in 2023. In fact, we have about six months left to go in 2023.. This was the surprise that they are thinking right here. If you look at where we're at, we're currently here.

We're between 5 and 5.25 Like this: Where my cursor is. That's where the current Fed fund rate is. You can see that most Fed members think that we're not only going to get up one tranche, but up two tranches. And that was the surprise.

So I get it. White piece of paper, blue dots? You're You're not like, uh, you're not thinking it. this. Will it happen? Won't it happen? Eh? Like it's tough to say because remember, the FED is all about like we're taking data in.

We're going to see how it goes. If they do this. this is going to be pretty extreme, but it doesn't matter if it does or it doesn't, What matters is what's going to happen in the market. Now, in anticipation of the fact that most of our Fed members, most of our Fed members think we're going up two tranches.

That's what has the impact on the market. Remember, the market is a forward-looking mechanism. It a lot of the times doesn't matter really. what does or doesn't happen.

The movement that we can make money off of that we can trade on that we can invest off of is the perception going forward. So this reminds me a lot. A Lot. A lot.

A lot of what happened all the way back here. I Don't want to go down memory lane too much, but let's go back. I Want to show you what happened in mid-july till mid-august in 2022.. this rippity skippity doo-dah right here that we saw in 2022.

the the Market's like hey, the Fed's probably done. We're going to be cutting interest rates, no issue whatsoever. Like why are we all complaining like Market's great it's time to be a bull bull. bye bye bye bye bye bye bye bye and then this day happen if you look at Friday the 26th.

this was the Jackson Hole Summit meeting whatever you want to call it. Basically where the Illuma Illuminati has like whatever their secret meetings at night. But this day was another example of when Powell had a public facing speech and he reminded the world we're the Federal Reserve Monetary policy is gonna be aggressive. It's gonna be hawkish because we have inflation and this concept of us cutting rates.

It's stupid. Stop talking about it. And the Market's like oh yeah, yeah, yeah, for we forgot about it. So we got crushed and it led to a further sell-off.

So obviously that happened there. Uh, it'll also happened once again. I Believe in the right here October November Same thing going into the end of the year. Everyone's like hey man, uh, we're gonna do rate cuts and like, no, seriously, we're not and then we get hit again.

This is a pattern that we've been seeing over the past year and a half now in the market. Time and time again, it's remember in the market, it's much more of what people think is going to happen. Remember, it's one argument to have. Okay, are things fundamentally valued properly or not? Yeah, Okay, that's great.

But right now here's a perfect example of things that are fundamentally overvalued. Tesla Out of nowhere, ripped from 150 up to 260. you have Nvidia ripping from really 300 from 110 in October But even recently, at the earnings, it was at 304 305. we're now trading at 423.

So if you're looking at things being fairly valued, that's not the market. I Don't want to be the bearer of bad news I Don't want to be the person poking your bubble and popping it here. The market is not efficiently priced. This concept of everything being perfectly priced all the time, it is clearly wrong.

Things are continually overpriced, underpriced. and that's why. If, especially if you're an active Trader a day trader swing Trader you're following price action. The name of the game isn't really for you.

Like, maybe in the back of your mind, you should know if things are currently overvalued undervalued. Maybe that gives you a better framework, but just because something's overvalued such as in video, There is no fundamental analyst right now saying Nvidia is fairly valuable because it's It's not fairly valued, it is clearly overvalued, and it's been overvalued even before its earnings. And yet it's still from that moment ripped another 41. So if you're basing everything on Fair fundamental value, you're gonna get blown out one time or another.

Like it. This is just not how our Market works. So coming back to the overall market right here talking about all this stuff, Will it happen? Will it happen? I Don't know, your guess is as good as mine. But right now the most recent information we have is the Fed after the market trip has been reminding us hey man, inflation's too high.

It's at four percent. we should be at two percent. And a lot of the FED members people who have a lot of control over the economy, the market, and our financial lives are saying we are being aggressive. This was a hawkish surprise, and it is because of that that I truly truly believe yesterday's high, at least for this medium time period will be a high water mark because this is clear representation from the people in power that they are fighting inflation, which means pushing downward on the economy, which has a secondary effect of driving the market down Am I right? I Have no idea Am I Wrong Once again, I Have no idea but judging off of this and also the recent Market Rip I don't see how this Market Rip is going to be sustained in the short to medium term it might be, but it would take some sort of Miracle to keep pushing it Forward at least in my opinion.

So that's the big news of yesterday. No. Fed Rate change. The odds are increasing for a 25 Bips rate hike in July And based on this, based on the summary of economic projections, we're looking at potentially another rate hike before the year concludes.

Which is hilarious because a couple weeks ago, the Market you know the people with the fancy pedigrees on the wall. they went to all the fancy colleges. They know more than us. They're so much better.

They're like just it plugged into Wall Street They get money. They get economies. A couple weeks ago, all those people were calling for rate cuts by the end of this year Rick cuts by the end of this year and now the FED said basically like go your calls and actually we're going to do two more rate hikes. Absolutely insane.

But also that just kind of shows that even people with like, allegedly knowledge in this 50 of the time, maybe even more, they're gonna be wrong. Early this morning, we got retail sales. We got initial jobless claims. We got a slew actually right here.

a slew of reports this morning. So initial jobless claims coming in higher than expected, retail sales coming in higher than expected. Uh, import prices dropping more than expected. And then we also have Philadelphia once again coming in lower than expected For the 10th month in a row.

Uh, 15 minutes before the Market opens, we get an industrial production capacity utilization. I Don't think anyone is going to be doing too much with that and business inventories at 10 A.M So yeah, it might have a little bit of an impact on the market, but I don't think these three are really that weighty. Um, tomorrow we have two Fed members speaking and then we also have consumer sentiment at 10. AM FYI The market is closed on Monday Monday June 19th The market is closed in observation of Juneteenth markets are closed this upcoming Monday So enjoy your three day weekend going a little bit.

International here. New Zealand Enters technical recession after economy shrank 0.1 percent in the first quarter. so this was announced last night. at least if you're on the East Coast Uh, New Zealand Officially in a recession I Really? don't think many countries are far behind that I think in the second half of this year, we're entering into a shallow recession.

That is my base case and I'm not just making this up if you look at what's going on with earnings and earnings predictions. I I Just don't see how things are going to be sustained I Think we got really, really lucky in the first quarter the second quarter potentially with this AI boom. but if we didn't have that, where would we be? There was a freak cultural event with Chachi BT that really kept this Market going and what kept the market going was basically a handful of stocks. Look at your Apple, your Tesla your meta, your Nvidia your Salesforce your Netflix and I think there's one or two more in there.

There's a small group of stocks that are pretty much the Lion's Share of why the market is up right now. If you look at everything else, it's barely up up like one percent if you look at everything else in the S P 500. So it's this AI boom that kept things alive and even then it has to keep booming to keep things higher. and I just don't see how that's going to happen, especially with these like guidance predictions.

But hey, we're gonna see. My base case is I don't think that you have to feel the pressure to buy this rip I Want to express that one more time? especially because I've been saying it all week. this rip in the market. Please please consider the fact that maybe you're fomoing into it for me I'm looking at the end of this year to kind of reload my long-term investment account I'm looking September October November That time frame is where I think all this chaos, the volatility, the whips all up down, the recession fears the inflation, fears the FED fears all that stuff.

the fear of the boogeyman that lives under your bed and is probably the reason why you don't get enough sleep. All of those fears I think are going to start to wane at the end of this year and well, no, not Wayne In fact, I guess the best way to say is I think that's when they're going to Peak which I think is going to be actually the bottom in the market I Want to be investing in the market when everyone's telling me I shouldn't be investing in the market where there's red, when there's blood, where there's Carnage But right now where everything's like skippity rippity doo dah To the upside, that's not the time to invest. That's not the time to blindly be going long. You want to do the opposite of the sentiment that everyone feels right now.

We're seeing extreme greet. we're ripping like no other I Want to be buying when everyone's like dude, why would we possibly be buying now I Want to shop on discount? That's how I really manage my long-term account so just wanted to share that with all of you. Crypto took a really strange hit overnight. I Don't know how many of you are actively following crypto, but out of nowhere vomited below 25 000 you have East vomiting below 1700.

In fact, almost touching 1600. Out of nowhere, Crypto took a big hit. Might be some liquidity issues. two crypto platforms halt withdrawals and an echo of the sector's 2022 woes dealio and Haru Invest I've never heard of either of those have suspended investor withdrawals I'm going to use my platform, especially personally learning from the Voyager incident that from there on out, do not keep your crypto on Exchange Why would you do that? Not your keys, not your coin.

You are not protected if you don't have control of your own crypto. Now is crypto a good thing? A bad thing. That's a discussion for another time. I am invested in Bitcoin I am invested in Ethereum.

It's a long-term prediction, but no way would I ever be creeping my crypto on any exchange. Why would you take on that additional risk of a random platform blocking you off? I I Touched the hot oven with the Voyager deal and from then I've learned keep it myself. keep it on your own wallets, preferably a cold Wallet Not even connected to the rest of the world, but I will even accept a hot wallet Better than clipping on someone else's exchange or platform. If you haven't already, why take? Why? Take on the risk that apy that you might be getting, You're like, hey, but I'm getting an extra four or five percent of the Year Simply not worth losing 50, 75, or potentially a hundred percent of your crypto.

The risk is not worth that reward If you want that four, five, six percent payment. Go get treasury bonds, notes, bills. Go do that. Far far better than taking on some sort of platform risk.

I'm begging you I'm begging of you I'm begging of you. Take your crypto off these exchanges off these platforms. Store it yourself. Please please please please please please please please if from here on out.

if you are somehow caught up in this yeah, I'm in a feel for you. but you can't say you weren't warned. Honestly, it's not just me, it's many other people using their platforms within the finance crypto space to tell you. not your keys, not your coin you've been hearing.

These Warnings for months, Months and months now. Please please protect yourself. Five things to know before that: Bell goes dingy ding ding ding today Thursday June 15th Hey I Think that's what I said before. That's awesome.

That's that. That's awesome. We got the date right. Uh, even coinbase.

Yes, even coinbase. There's There's no caveats to this. No caveat whatsoever. No caveats whatsoever.

No caveats. Take it off, exchange, take it off platforms. Store it yourself. Uh, the pause is here.

We talked about the FED They paused. The concerning thing is the SCP the summary of economic projections looking as if we're going to get another 50 bips by the end of this year. Will it happen? Well, reality is a little bit of a different thing than prediction. But in terms of what we could do now: I Think that we just created a high water mark and then sending the market down an IPO on the menu.

Kava ipoing looking at 19 to 20. I Think they're actually looking at yet 22 a share. Um, protected. When does it start trading? it'll trade under Kava.

I Like Kava, it's kind of a Mediterranean Chipotle I'm a fan of it. China's economic model. Economic signs coming out of China aren't great. So it's kind of weird because we're seeing people like Ray Dalio and Ken Griffin telling us that China is a great investment right now and yet we're not seeing the best numbers from them.

So maybe it's just a differential in like the time frame. Uh, but the most recent numbers out of China not the best uh in the rough this is PGA live I Think now the urging the Justice Department so taking my senators are trying to like look into this and it's just becoming a really strange deal. Putin's mercenary problem I Have no idea what this is Russians President Vladimir Putin finds himself at odds with the country's Infamous Wagner group of mercenaries. Until recently, Wagner's leader, some crazy name uh primarily had issues with Russia's defense Ministry over strategy in the Ukraine Invasion Now though Putin has endorsed Ministries called to have groups like Wagner sign contracts with the military uh which I guess the leaders opposed to I don't know much about it and I don't think is going to have much of an impact on what we are really doing.

But wait, there's more. I Want you to know about the seasonality of today The S P 500 seasonal bias for today Thursday June 15th is actually favoring the bulls. The bulls have won this day 68 of the time over the past two and a half decades. The Profit Factor is 3.41 as in every dollar spent has returned 3.41 Obviously, the bias is bullish and this is what the equity curve looks like over the past two and a half decades.

bottom left to top right type of stuff. Is this a guarantee? No. I'm just telling you what has historically played out over the past 25 years. Uh, recently.

this seasonality hasn't been too favorable to us over the past week, but two weeks ago, it was crushing it for us pretty much every single day. So yeah, I just want you to know about the basic headwinds and Tailwinds But yes, today does technically favor the Bulls Will it go that way? Personally, that's not my prediction I Do believe today will be a red day. Uh, judging off of what happened over the past two days, that's my thoughts, my opinions. but bottom left, top right, it does favor the Bulls This is all posted in the Locals Community If you're not yet a member of the Locals Community Uh, you should join up Macross.locos.com It's pinned to the top of chat.

it's in the description of the video. There's a free version, a premium version in the premium version. The main difference is I post my trades. In the future it will be connected to a Discord It's ten dollars a month.

Hundred dollars a year. Honestly, a lot of these trades it would pay for multiple Decades of you being in it if you want to think about it that way. But really, what I think is useful is the fact that it's a community of people posting their own thoughts and opinions. So you're just kind of getting insights from people who really care about this type of stuff.

And when I say about this type of stuff I'm talking about degenerately ripping YOLO calls puts buying shorting all that good stuff. so it's more of just I I Like that aspect of it the best. but once again, Matt Cores.locals.com Pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video, there is a free version if you just want the seasonality just so you know. All right and with that out of the way, let's take a look you see at the market right here.

Apparently we're bouncing a little bit finding a little bit right here. so it did breach four thousand, four thousand, four hundred key technical level kind of popped above it and now we're just waiting. Honestly I think this pop right here that we just saw might be a little bit of a upside liquidity gram. Um I think you have, um, some buy side like it popped right above it I Think this is going to end up getting crushed.

Come down and fill some of these levels out. but that is simply my prediction on the day and actually your prediction on the day is what here. Let me get this all ready. Uh, we're going to do a bit of chart review, but 62 percent of you think it's going to be a bearish day endpoll.

62 percent of you are saying the Bears are gonna finally have their opportunity. Interesting, interesting, interesting, Interesting. Well, we'll we'll see I Mean enough of you voted. My gut says bear I Mean we're definitely going to find out soon enough.

Okay, so we have about a half hour to go. so well actually I did want to go over a couple things here I did want to go over a couple things. First of all is Squawk Box doing anything interesting I want to do some chart review? but I just want to make sure that we are all. no one cares about that.

Uh, kava I mean I don't know if you guys I didn't really have any plans to trade Cava but we could listen to it. So behind the scene, the CEO was Mark Ed as the the next Chipotle and it's clear that had investors craving the stock Chipotle is up ten thousand percent since its IPO 17 years ago for recent gains in Chipotle and other fast casual comparables like Sweet Green, for example, voted well for Cava's IPO evaluation. The 12 year old self-described Chef casual Mediterranean chain price shares that's two dollars above the range of boosted earlier in the week. I'm told it was approaching 30 times over subscribed meaning there was nearly 30 times as much non-binding interest as there was stock available at the 22 dollar price.

Cava raises a 318 million dollars 2.5 billion market cap JP Morgan Leading the deal here along with Jeffries profitability still front and center for IPO investors Cava actually earned more an adjusted ebitda during the first three and a half months of the year than it did all of 2022.. big stock available and the overall new issue Market is also at play. Three mutual funds have indicated they'll purchase 100 million dollars worth of the offering at the IPO price and then I'm told some pre-ipo crossover investors are bulking up as well. Cava will list on the NYSC under the symbol C-a-v-a and start trading later today so we'll see if some of that demand that took place uh, during the road show this week crosses over into the aftermarket guys.

Leslie I Generally avoid IPOs because it's just crazy volatility. but hey, I like Cabo I'm a fan I'm a fan I'm a fan more on cava side of Silicon Valley and Steve You guys have been in Cabo for a very long time. Yeah, nearly a decade. We believe that there was going to be a transition in the food industry.

Really? Transformations That fast food would give away to fast casual healthier options would make sense. More customizations, more convenience using technology like speaking of riding the health Trend Especially getting out of the pandemic. I'm seeing an explosion in like mocktails I Think alcohol itself is kind of taking a hit. um, at first like whatever traditional alcohol.

Then we saw pivot to kind of more of the seltzers and now at least in New York I'm seeing a huge huge pivot to mocktails of people trying to like I Don't know. like Get Away Of the unhealthy habits that we had, we kind of probably all developed during the Ronin period. Uh, I Don't know if you guys are seeing it in other areas, but the the mocktail market seems to be exploding to enable all this. and that's really what Cab has done so well over the past.

Uh yeah, really decade and I'm really proud of the the team there led by Brett Tolman also our team at Revolution Ted Leonsis and Todd a great example of the kind of company we love to back at the At Revolution including the fact that it happened to be headquartered in Washington DC which is not known as a startup Hub or a culinary Hub Uh, but it would birth the Cop and also birthed Sweet Green which we also invested in nearly a decade ago. How'd you find it or who found it? We found it because partly because of the area, partly because you know Ted Leounces uh as part of the Greek Mafia if you will and with watching what's happening within the Mediterranean segment knew some of the founders of the original restaurant and then Brett Schulman who had a terrific career in in banking decided to take the lead in turning it into a more of a fast casual concept. So we were in the early early days really believed in the vision and now they've been merged really as though here in the Mediterranean category all around the country, but still half the states they haven't yet entered, so there's a lot of runways. Very excited by what's happened the last decade for the team today and I hope I'm really looking forward to the necktie and actually was just texting with Brett the CEO a few minutes ago and he was talking about the fact that they've done a good job of the first decade.

but now the next decade is when things really start to accelerate. I Was gonna say you guys must have made a huge return to this point, but it doesn't sound like you're going to take the money and run anytime soon. We're definitely big Believers in in common big Believers in these Mega Trends And when we're backing companies, whether it's focused on on place things like Rise of the Rest or increasingly focused on policy because we think some of the most Innovative companies in this next decade will have a policy regulatory aspect of some of the big Industries up for grabs are regulated also because what's happened in Congress last year with the Chips and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act, bipartisan infrastructure Bill Three trillion dollars are going in the economy. That's going to create a lot of momentum for for Innovative companies.

So place and policy of the two areas really focused on. but when we back companies, we're really taking a long-term views and we're in for the long run. Speaking of mocktails as of tomorrow: I Haven't drank a drop of alcohol in two weeks. Not sure if I have ever done that in the last 23 years.

Congratulations Adam Seriously, that's no easy task, especially if it was just part of your daily routine. It's hard to break old habits and create new ones. I'm curious. uh, in two weeks When you now that two weeks with no alcohol? uh, are you like physically noticing anything? Are you like, uh, mentally emotionally noticing anything? two weeks? You haven't done that in 23 years? That's a big shift I'm just curious or is it more of just are you feeling I guess uh, almost victorious in the fact that you were able to do that and not maybe really other like physical effects.

Yet are you just feeling good that like hey yeah, you like pulled something off that like wasn't that easy? um but that's cool. Seriously man. uh I truly give you my gratitude or my Applause I should say he's probably bored. Yeah, the major thing I noticed is how freaking bored I am now.

uh I can believe it I could believe it. Oh, that's too long. Obviously we know. Talk-ish blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.

All right, let's see what's Kramer saying Graham our boy Kramer's talking. We're going to talk with the CEO later this hour. Oh that's fantastic. Yeah good.

uh Thursday Morning everybody Welcome to squawk in the street I'm David Faber with Jim Cramer we're live from post nine at the New York Stock Exchange Carl has the morning off. Let's give you a look at Futures as we get ready 30 minutes from now to begin tomorrow morning Saturday and Sunday uh and of course a lot of that may be a result of what we heard yesterday from Fed chair Powell and that is where our road map starts with the FED standing Pat for now on interest rates, though it did signal the tightening could soon resume from the FED to the consumer. New data showing retail sales grows in May and that was something of a surprise. And as we mentioned: Caba go in public today.

it uh, you know Jim and I have different views of how test it is for the IPO Market but we'll certainly discuss that French woman's the CEO Of course it's somewhat further by the end of the year, but at this meeting, considering how far and how fast we've moved, we judged it prudent to hold the target range steady to allow the committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. All right, what do you think? Well, I think a lot of people were trying to figure out whether we're going to have a soft Landing or hard Landing but yesterday we discovered there's a third choice, which is that the plane is still landing at all. It doesn't have any intention. So how do you have a soft or hard landing and the reason is is because of house? Uh and how shelter has been sticky I Think you could go? You want to know the key to this? Go to the Home Depot conference.

Call the full day Daniels day and you'll hear why they have to do it. Home Depot Saying looks is an incredibly inflationary time. There's inflation everywhere. Uh, housing.

By the way, 13 trillion dollars in value has been created. Home prices are up 40 since 2019. everything trickles down from housing and housing we're going to hear from Lenore Same thing it is where the epicenter of inflation is and it's Rippling Throughout the economy, you've been saying that for quite some time. That said, there's not that much action in advance.

I Mean if you have a good mortgage, for example, you are less likely to want to leave and have to assume a new mortgage at a much higher rate. Aren't you? Well, okay, so fit. They're literally 50 of people don't even have a mortgage. Okay, of the other people who have mortgages.

uh, let me guess. four, forty percent of owner occupied homes have no mortgage. Yeah, eighty percent of those with mortgages are locked in at five percent or lower. So if you look at that, you do the algebra calculation obviously then there's almost no one to sell, right? Why? I Don't want to move? because I can afford my monthly homes and that's kind of environment, especially homes out of it.

Anything too useful for my old Jimbo today. Nothing too useful from old Jimbo All right, all right ECB Hikes again and signals rates will rise more before. Peak We know that sister. this offers months of free fast charging to move inventory cars.

However, it became chat to PG's brain and joined the one trillion Club two crypto platforms. Boeing We know that hot withdrawals. Uh, New York City's rent surge defied by new grads pursuing a tick tock lifestyle. What's a tick tock lifestyle? Whatever it is, it sounds provocative.

Count Me In Count Me In Uh. breaking Bitcoin Hardware Wallet by Jack Dorsey's Block to integrate with coinbase and cash app for seamless BTC buys and auto transfer to self-custody Not a bad idea. Uh, the ECB President very likely to raise rates in July All right. Well, the world is still being inflated.

We are obviously well aware of that. Well aware of that. What else do we have going on? What else? What else? What else? What else? What else. Okay.

I Think we're pretty much up to date with where we need to wait. What is this one? Jerome Powell Claimed yesterday that the FED won't be financing US Government debt as it skyrockets to 52 trillion in the next 10 years by 2033. They are wrong. It will be way sooner than 2023.

The FED will have no choice but to buy debt. The CBO projects the federal deficit to be 2.8 trillion. Uh, in 10 years. The CBO also says that federal debt will be 52 trillion by 2033..

At what point do you talk more firmly with lawmakers about fiscal responsibility? because I'm assuming monetary policy cannot handle a loan, the inflation or keep that inflation in check with the higher level spending. I Don't do that. That's really not my job I Will say in many of my predecessors have said, sure, you don't get buddy, you're on a non-sustainable path and that needs to be addressed over time. But I think trying to get into uh, interesting literally calling it out saying it's an unsustainable path.

our government spending we are on an unsustainable fiscal path and wow, that needs to be addressed over time. But I think trying to get into uh into that with with lawmakers would be would be kind of, uh, inappropriate given our independence and our need to stick to our knitting. I can't play that music um I'm going to get Dmca then YouTube will murk me Kind of saying I mean it is I understand wanting to make money on Mullen no you don't Why lock your money owning the word Oh okay no. I agree with that.

You're worthless stock. you could play, puts calls and make money on the price act Mullen Blows dude. Uh, here's an interesting question and yeah, what is this one? Tether or get into some sketchy Waters if you will, where's the market at right now? Getting a little bit of a bounce but I don't see it lasting for the longest time. Uh, definitely leaning a bit bearish, but we'll see how it all plays out.

You gotta wait for the price action to come to us. Um, yes, we're about to do some chart review. Uh, so everyone can call out whatever their favorite ticker is and we'll kind of do like a daily chart breakdown. Maybe we'll see some interesting opportunity I Must admit the interesting opportunity I See today is in Tesla I'll explain that in a second, but before we do that, uh, this is something that maybe we haven't really talked about.

What's your least favorite stock I Feel like that's a question that I've really never bounced off of? Chat with all of you guys here. Uh, what are you just like? Dude I Hate this stock. It's absolute trash. The fact that anyone buys it pisses me off.

What is your least favorite stock? so it says: AFC Why is this not loading? Why is the rumble chat here? Do we need to try it again? Uh I guess that's not loading today. Favorite Stock Has my chat turned into an AMC hike hate Club hymc Savage you guys uh, ape and Hood oh you guys are funny. Have you ever seen a company withdraw their offering Mvis? Not many times I've seen it, but it's kind of a rarity. Neo What is hoof you guys really have turned into AMC haters Wow, is it AMC you hate or Adam Aaron that you hate.

Is it like specific to the stock? or do you hate the leadership? Because I guess it has the soft spot in my heart of like teaching so many retail people about the markets in general. Uh Market structure like I think it kind of opened a Pandora's box of knowledge. so I I appreciate that. um the leadership team I think is absolutely horrible and like all these like douchebags on Twitter about it I don't like that I don't know some of the some of the story related to AMC like I will always appreciate because I think it's a good thing for more people to learn about the markets to learn what's going on.

So I appreciate it for that. Um I dislike both. All right. Well now that we asked that question.

uh, the one thing first I want to see in the market right now pre-market the Spy is training at 436.10 Uh, as the the green line is yesterday's high, the red line is yesterday's low. It's kind of as easy as this. I like I think we could break it down of if we go below four, three, Four sixty three two days ago the low from two days ago. um I'm gonna be looking at that as like kind of a warning signal.

It's like oh, Bears might be loaded up and then if we snap below 433.59 especially if we close below it I think that's going to be the start of a bearish trend. Um, so I'm watching that at the gate 434 63 433.59 Obviously it's an if then statement. If it breaks down, then I'm feeling pretty confidently bearish. Uh, but it might not.

In fact, we might get above 437.33 which is two days ago High also kind of where we closed yesterday and then from there I'm watching 439 which is yesterday's high and if we get above that, obviously the Bulls are still ripping the faces off of bears. So kind of an if then statement. There's my warning shot for the bull side and then officially, if we get above it and then why is this there and then obviously opposite. 43463, the 433.59 That's what I'm watching on the Spy today.

my buys of the day. it is bearish. I Want to be very clear? even though the seasonality is saying for today, historically, he plays out in the Bull's favor. That's not how I feel about today's scenario.

just my opinion might be right. Might be wrong. Obviously it's fighting the trend. Look at the Mas, the 10 and the 20.

The 10 is the yellow line and the 20s the red line. Obviously we're pointing upward. look at higher highs, higher lows. Yes, I am making a counter Trend play a counter Trend prediction.

but I'm just going off of what happened with the FED yesterday, what happened with the Fomc meeting I'm favoring the Bulls as of now and my risk in this is 439 above 439. I'll throw in the town be like okay, hey, I was wrong on this trade, but whatever I have measured risk and reward. The measure of risk is 439 about three dollars away and my reward is 423 which is about 13 away. So obviously the reward outweighing the risk and I just hope it comes to fruition this time around.

But regardless of how confident you are or aren't you have to have risk management without risk management, it's just an x amount of time until you blow up your account. So anyway, I'm watching that in terms of the overall market and I think what's even more over extended is Tesla Tesla from Thursday April 27th trading at 152 ripped all the way up to 261 in some change yesterday. um, looks like we're going to be opening up below yesterday's low. yesterday's lowest 250 50.

we're at 250 39 right now. Actually, we might be opening up just at the low. but anyway, if we use this as our high if it is used as the high like this is how I use it when I say we is just like kind of how I'm seeing this situation. do whatever you want, it's your money.

Don't follow me ever I think that's silly. but anyway, yesterday's high is 261. if you're okay risking about 11, well your first Target is actually this Gap fill 235. That's what I'd be looking for I currently have no Tesla position, but if I'm about to make one, I'll let you know if it happens.

it might even be happening like during stream today. Uh, but if it even snaps that and keeps coming down I mean this. this could really really come down. even something as simple as this.

Even if you're looking for some sort of measured move, 50 gets us all the way to 207, which might be a fine. Target And if you get some whatever a Sure Position puts, or if you want to sell calls against it, whatever, that could be some nice money, so just wanted to talk about that. That's probably one of my main watches on the day. I've been watching Nvidia forever, but it just almost seems untradable because the Bulls don't care.

They seem seemingly have unlimited money and they're drunk and they just keep throwing it down on the table time and time and time again. I'm tired of fighting the trend on this so I would need to wait for a legitimate breakdown. and I already got out of my call position on the 25th and the 26th. so like, uh, I'm no longer bullish on it because I already made money in that direction I tried to fade it I got really excited when it started to break down here, but seemingly it just did not matter.

So yeah, I'm watching it, but it just made an all-time high. It's coming off of it a little bit, but Nvidia is representing serious, serious, serious strength. Netflix I took my profits on a little too early I bought it at that the 390 breakout in here I got out of it around 4 30. it's continuing.

it's already 15 higher. I was calling out this level of closer to 460. might be getting there. so once again I want to let you know that I took my profits on it but if you're in it, maybe just for me I I got I was trading well for a bit and then the Nvidia put play kind of Knocked me off my game and then so did the spy and the queue put play.

So I was like okay I just kind of need to like clean this light come back and I wish I held on to this one obviously. but um to me I locked in profits but if I I wish I were still riding it just to like follow it like the trends still intact, why not keep going, keep going, keep going that type of a deal. uh rum. Almost had a beautiful breakout and they got smacked hard.

We're currently back just in this chop region so look for it to either break down from the top region or to keep going out of it Shopify looks beautiful. Trending Down Down broke out retested Off to the Races Ever since then in a similar situation you have Luv uh trending down down down beautiful breakout. The entry was just above 30. risking 28 you're already up more than whatever.

10 15, 20 uh I would ride that one as well once again, this is not one that I have positioned on personally. Apple within spitting distance of its all-time high of 184.95 Uh, at yesterday's close, it was once again three trillion dollars. We're flirting with that three trillion dollar market cap. Do I think this is overvalued? Without a doubt, look at this rip that is not sustainable.

When this comes down, it's going to come down hard and I think Apple just being the biggest player in the S P 500. It's going to drag the cues and the spy with it, but right now you can't fight it. Eventually this comes down. It's just the golden question is when and it doesn't seem like it's happening anytime soon.

but definitely on my watch list. AI Made some impressive recovery shot up um, didn't have the best earnings, came down aggressively and then ever since this trend line breakout broke held, uh, you're looking for the snap of 44 and then maybe an upside rip the 48. I'm trying to think of anything else that's been major that we've been talking about. What is your questions? uh I need to know about Apple Apple I Don't think it's really tradable right now.

If I was already long, I would continue to hold because the trend's in my favor. but I'm not going to go long at an all-time high and it's not really showing signs of weakness. so I'm not going to bet against it. So the only thing I would personally do with Apple if it were me is just continue to hold if I already held a position.

but remember, it always comes back to your risk reward. Don't be following Randos into Longs shorts calls Puts this that the other thing like obviously people can share their opinions. but for me I I just don't see an option of anything to do with Apple unless I was already long. then I would just continue to ride the trend.

That's how I would personally play it. but obviously it's up to you. your own research, your own risk tolerance, your own account. like.

at the end of the day, we're still all trading our own account. so you have to do what's best for you. Uh AMC I don't really give a about it. Uh, what your thoughts on Western Alliance and Pacques.

So I think with the recent uh decision from the FED I think we're about to start round two of regional Banks being under some pressure I Really do I Don't know if I'm personally gonna trade it, but I mean we're seeing some trend line breakdowns and it's just the aggression of the FED. What's going on with the FED right now might cause more of these Banks Potentially Bank Panic Bank runs um I think Regional Banks would have bounced quite a bit if the fed's like you know what we're done but they basically said no, we're doing two more rate hikes, which is going to put more downward pressure on these, especially if there's a panic in it. So um, I would be really I'm probably not playing it at all I have no banking position at the moment in time, but I would not be surprised if we see a little bit of bearishness developing in here. Um, uh, what else do we have? What else? What else? What else? What else? Uh, jit.

you can shut up. Now we already talked about it. jit stop commenting or you're gonna all right. we're gonna time you out I'll time you out.

Uh uh yeah. Like what's the point of spamming something that I already like discussed? Uh, Carvana, how's that one doing? Did it break down yet? No Still repping some strengths I Truly believe eventually Carvana comes down because that's what it's done every single time. But you have to wait. Once again, you don't just arbitrarily bet against something.

What's your risk in it? Um, so with Carvana, typically when you see a rip and then your red day like this, that's kind of your first warning shot. And then most of the time when you get that first close below the low, the swing low. which in this case would be 1760. that's kind of like the next major warning shot that it might be done so, but for right now, it's not doing that.

It popped, came back down, popped halfway through the region. Now you just have to watch it once again. I'm not goin