Oh oh brother, brother, brother, hello hello hello. Welcome to another episode of the Matt Cor show where um I'm Matt and we'll say the C back there that you probably can't see at this moment in time is we'll call her cores and then you could be the show. So that's how it's going to work out today. and I think we're going to have a good one Market's looking a little suspect this morning.

Little bit red so I want to talk about that? I want to lay out some of the seasonality? recap some of those degenerate zero DTE trades. Yesterday we went three for three, so make sure you sign up for all of that. Um, we're going to talk about some other options Market related things, some just the major macroeconomic events to pay attention to today. so that's going to be the economy and the market stuff.

Then from there I Want to get into some of the most recent updates in the world of political drama and Gates has done it. Matt Gates has uh, officially moved forward with the potential outing of the Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy So we're going to talk about that, what it means, what it doesn't mean, and the potential Market impacts. But before we get all into it, folks, I need to chat with you. We need to have a quick chitchat as people are still coming into today's stream and I want to simultaneously share a story with you and through the story.

I'm going to give you a lot of uh, relationship advice. So first of of all to properly explain all the energy going on in this show. Oh dude, my camera's a little bit off. Hang on let me see if I can fix this.

Let me see if I can fix this. Why is my camera dude? What's that cat doing? Hey oh shoot Hang on we're having. Get that. Come here.

Hey come here. We talked about this. sorry dud. Usually she's a little bit more.

Come here. Piper dude, what's the over under on her knocking over the astronaut? Stop. Anyway, no, come on, please don't knock it over. You can't break that on me.

Stop Dude. All right where was I Oh, it's been an interesting morning. It's obviously been a very interesting morning because I've been up since the crack of dawn I've already had cups of coffee I'm in the middle of crushing this drink drink that they don't sponsor me so I'm not going to tell you the name. but the point is is, there's enough caffeine in my system to probably kill a horse right now and it's because of that that I just figured did she come down Oh she did go to your bed I have a bed right by me.

she's been I don't know she's been in some sort of way this morning. But anyway, so I was sitting here I've been amped up I've been D I'm I'm seeing sounds at this point in the day and I was waiting for this particular show to start and you know what? I figured I'd have uh, a little bit of fun and simultaneously as I uh alluded to before, give you a bit of relationship advice maybe something to spice up your relationship. So there I was sitting and I decided to text my completely real fiance and I was like what would be funny? what would be a little bit of drama? a little bit of Comedy that I could add to my own life just to make this Tuesday a little bit more spicy looking for a hot tamale type of a Tuesday So you know what? I decided to do I bring up my completely real fiance's number and I go to our text message box and I just text her I don't think she knows about us and oh man, this is cooking, this is cooking I was waiting waiting for what the response could possibly be to that text. I don't think she knows about us and and then she walks in and she's like what? what is this text I was like and like I try to play it off a little bit awkwardly of just like oh no no like I I'm playing into it like oh no, it's for a stream thing, it's a joke.

don't worry about it hahaa got you and she's like that's so dumb why would you do that and then I waited and I let that cook a little bit more and I just waited, waited waited and I text her again and I said said she totally bought it. Nothing to worry about and then she came back in and she's like what are you doing and I was like no no no seriously, just like for the stream, it's going to be a stream story. Don't worry about it at all. So I don't know I just wanted to share that with you.

uh and I think I think everyone should give that a try today and please we we'll call that a piece of your homework. Come back tomorrow and let me know how it plays out. But whoever it is, you're significant another, your boyfriend, your girlfriend, your fiance, your husband, your wife, whatever you're talking to these days, whoever whoever you're talking to these days, just hit them with that. Be like I don't think they know about us and just see where the conversation goes.

just see where this is possibly going to play out. And I'm very very excited to hear your stories for tomorrow. So uh, give that a try today. maybe over lunch, maybe late tonight.

I I mean I'm sure in your own life you're going to know the perfect timing and um I think should give that a whirl. Give that a whirl and I'm very very excited to hear about the results tomorrow, so just want to throw that out there I know generally I Save the relationship advice segment of the show for a little bit later on, but I figured today, let's let's switch it up and let's try it a little bit earlier and I'm very excited to hear the responses for tomorrow. Who gets the cat? We're going to find out. we're going to find out.

Uh, all right. Other than that, I guess we should talk about some Market stuff cuz why not? So early this morning things were looking a little bit. Saucy A little bit of a liquidity. grab a little bit of a liquidity sweep from yesterday's low I Have this.

Uh, yesterday at 12:45 we had a low. obviously as we're speaking right now, we bounced below it, but now we're bouncing right back up. Classic liquidity sweep. That's a no for me I Want to live my girl Latina? Give it.

Jose I Think it might play out a little bit better than you expect I mean what's the fun? you know have a little bit of fun are Jose My question to you is do you really want to live Decades of a boring life or do you want to live for one more week but go out and like just flames of Glory You know some of the brightest stars. they're just that bright because they're about to explode and you got to ask yourself, do you want to be that exciting flash in the pan or do you just want to have the slow simmer? You know, no one really talks about slow simmers, but we do talk about exploding Stars So just something to consider. Something to consider. Speaking of exploding, Stars We should talk about the overall market and how things got, uh, looking a little.

Saucy This morning, as of 6:30 things have just been getting a little bit merked. But this 425 region we're currently trading at 425 just north of 425 is actually a very, very important level. It's a key technical level. It's a key psychological level and it's very, very rapidly become.

well, it's been it's over the past week or two. Uh, very, very important options level. There is a lot, a lot, a lot, a lot of Gamma and Delta exposure right at this level in the options market. So it's going to be a big old battle.

The options market makers in no way want this below 425 by the end of this week. In no, no, no, no way. and in fact, you could argue that the options market makers would prefer just based on the Gamma and Delta levels for this to be above 430 by the end of this week. I'm not saying today I'm saying by the end of this week.

So so I want to get into that? Obviously the cues held up a little bit better yesterday. I mean utilities. It got merked I Mean most of the time people don't talk about Xlu. this is the utility sector within the S&P 500.

But as you can see yesterday, this was an absolute vomit. This is what it looks like when I go upside down and backwards on a roller coaster cuz it was puking all freaking day. It doesn't matter if you're trying to act cool on the eighth grade field trip whatsoever to impress Megan who never texted you back even even though you were supposed to sit by each other on the bus and instead she was sitting by Mikey cuz Mikey's so much cooler cuz he's on the basketball team. but no.

Anyway, you guys, we've all been there. we've all been there. we've all puked the exact same way the utility sector is, so pay attention to that. Pay attention to what's going on here.

Also, even though it didn't get as much attention, the financial sector was not that good yesterday either. So really, the only thing that kept the cues alive was purely the tech sector which actually put in a green day. So all these Xl's you can get different sectors. Xlk is technology, Xlu is utilities XLF is financials.

Xli is Industrials XLV is Healthcare So if you want to look for specific sectors, there's even more than that. I was just going through the main ones. I Mainly pay attention to Xlk E and F those are the main ones. But now we kind of have to pay attention to utilities because it kind of had a catastrophic day yesterday.

Stock Features are little changes Traders way Rising Treasury yields So the Us10y right here. the 10year yield is ripping faces off. whoever's been long bonds which is arguably the right play has been getting destroyed. the this is it's just wild at some point I Don't know if it's this year, next year, the year after it's probably next year, there's going to be I My theory is that within the next G sub five years, but probably within three years, being long bonds is going to be the play of the year because there's It's just untenable how much bonds have been destroyed and obviously aversely yield going up.

So another way to say that is I think within the next one, two, three years, the play of the entire year is going to be short yields long bonds. and right now, honestly, I I'm happy I didn't take it yet because I very much thought that I already missed the boat on it I'm like, okay, no, like no time to do it now like I'm already late. but yet it keeps getting worse. Bonds are getting pummeled, yields are ripping.

It's just just it's ridiculous I Don't understand how it can keep getting this bad and yet we haven't heard murmurs of other Banks blowing up. I mean it feels like just the Grim Reaper is coming down the hallway and it's just looking for that next. Regional Size Regional Like medium Smalls Siiz Bank cuz like there's no these Banks We already know the banks yoed into bonds way long ago. They have to be so deeply underwater and all of them are basically trying to just not be the next one who is to sell stock to raise.

Capital Because then that could just be them pulling the fire alarm. And yes, banks are a little bit better at understanding what the fire alarm is relative to our politicians which is by far my favorite story from yesterday. But maybe they're not. I Mean, even if we looked at Svb Signature, all those guys, they were doing a capital raise and they didn't think that it was going to cause a catastrophe.

So maybe just people at the highest level of Politics the highest levels of Wall Street the highest levels of banking. Maybe just none of them understand what pulling a fire alarm is. Maybe they never paid attention to that one particular day in first grade when they're like, hey, don't pull that that it Maybe that's my going Theory But right now, this isn't a short-term call it at all. I Just want to point out how yes, yields are ripping bonds are getting destroyed and I think maybe there's like a certain generation that's going to be created created pretty soon.

that's going to absolutely love bonds because I think very soon here. bonds are going to make a lot of people a lot of money if you get the timing right. Hong Kong shares Dro 3% dragged down by real estate and energy so we've been talking about China how not only they're Shadow banking but what's going on with real estate? So if you look at Evergr bankruptcy, there's the other one that just paid its Bond payment. So the economy in China suspect to say the least.

uh I haven't been following much of the energy like I guess situation but obviously uh, just with the time zones and everything their Market's pretty much wrapped up already I mean they were trading while we were most likely all sleeping so just want to give you an update there that definitely in no way is helping with uh, our current situation. This is a look at the S&P 500 futures Market that ever since 6:30 this morning has been doing nothing but vomiting. So yes I want to talk a lot of the economic stuff, the market stuff the option Stu But first to understand what's going on in the economy uh which thus has an impact on the market. we have to go to policy politics like that's the intersection between politics and the market is the economy and this is why we have to really connect all three.

The biggest piece of I guess political drama right now is Gates versus McCarthy Gates a representative from Florida McCarthy Speaker of the House. They are not the best of buddies anymore. They are not holding hands singing Kumbaya uh at all. In fact, I would argue that in this particular situation, Gates is actually in a much more agreement with AOC than even McCarthy Right now, representative Matt Gates triggers vote to OU Kevin McCarthy from speaker's office.

So for those of you who maybe you weren't paying attention over the weekend, maybe you missed the show yesterday. First of all, Dem Merit You're not allowed to miss any show if you're in here watching now. You better be here tomorrow. And if you miss tomorrow's show, this will be reflected in your end of semester grade.

So don't be surprised if you're getting a letter grade or two less than what you expected to based on your quizzes and tests. Because attend matters. This is real life and attendance. It matters for you to show up, so just want to get that out there.

But in case you missed it, we almost shut down as the government and then at the last second Biden signed into law a 45-day basically stop situation just to extend it. basically kicking the can down the road and the fact that McCarthy came to some sort of compromise with his Democratic counterparties. well, some of the more I guess hard hardliners as media is calling them such as Mat Gates Not so happy with it. Didn't think that they should have been a compromise.

So they're saying hey, uh, you're basically the Speaker of the house even though you say you're Republican, you're acting like you work for the Democrats I don't like that I want to oust you house Democrats could decide Kevin McCarthy's face longtime critic Matt Gates has forced vote to oust the speaker House minority leader Hakeem Jeff and his fellow Democrats will soon face a difficult decision. Are they better off keeping representative Kevin McCarthy from California house Speaker or taking their chances with someone else. At this point, it probably makes more logical sense for them to keep McCarthy talking about the Democrats Um, but I'm also saying that as a person who's not really a political pant by any means. so maybe they think about it differently.

but the fact that McCarthy was already willing to work with them would make you I guess at least me logically think that they could continue to work with them House Republicans have largely rallied around McCarthy with public support for Gates's motion coming only from a handful of longtime McCarthy critics, but because of the House's narrow 221 to 212 Republican majority Gates would be able to ask McCarthy triggering a new election if he could get at least four other Republicans to join him and get all Democrats on board. Alternatively, a handful of democratic votes uh, could have saved McCarthy from Aler by helping him table or set aside the motion. Uh, let me see if I could actually get this to play. Wall Street Journal Was having some technical issues earlier today.

Bacon, it's working Uh formally moved ahead with the vote to Al Kevin McCarthy late Monday So it's the game of dude I don't know what's going on The historic vote will test Republican support from McCarthy the GOP Control Chamber I Think that what you'll see when we cast this first vote will be my floor, not my ceiling. and I think that as we have more votes later, Uh numbers will likely grow because every day members wake up, they continue to see more broken promises from speaker. McCarthy So that's why I think my movement will be ascended. Mcarthy posted Bring It On on social media while Gates wrote in response just did like I said the drama is passing getting into the word of Twitter SLX Gates Filed the motion after McCarthy opted to pass a bipartisan deal to avoid a government shutdown.

The short-term deal keeps the government funded through mid November but is opposed by Hardline conservatives. Some GOP members had threatened to as McCarthy if he brought up legislation that required Democratic support to pass. So that's what's going on. Uh.

side note here at the first GOP debate when I was there doing my show with Rumble uh, I had the opportunity to actually I was just arbitrarily standing by Matt Gates like this is actually kind of funny. Um, so it was right before the event so obviously there's the giant stage. It was in the Bucks basketball arena so it was a very very large venue and we were standing there and there's a lot of standing. just everyone.

like awkwardly waiting for it to get started because like you have to be in there like an hour a half beforehand before it actually starts and you have to be seated an hour before it starts. So there's a lot of people just kind of like waiting for things to get going. But in my section there was Mar Taylor green and also Matt Gates and they also had their like Entourage or whatever I think Matt Gates was with his wife and someone like introduced us and they're like hey have you guys met and I said hi, shook his hand I said nice to meet you I like your name CU For those of you who don't know if you haven't seen the name of the show, this is the Matt cor show. So Matt Gates Matt Kors there's an overlap of the Matt part just to explain what's going on here and then he said oh your name's Matt too and I said yeah and that was it that that was.

That was my whole interaction with the guy hey good name oh your name's Matt too. Yeah yeah. so you can say that my my, uh, political career really got off to a solid solid start. It was.

It was. It was quite the start to my political career. Anyway, back to what's going on: Republican Matt Gates moves to formally remove Kevin McCarthy as Speaker Republican Matt Gates ially moved to topple House Speaker Kev McCarthy on Monday evening teing up a high stakes vote likely to dramatically shift the balance of power in Washington. Whatever the outcome, at least one other Republican dissident explicitly said he would join Gates and others indicated that they were strongly considering doing so as few as five Ultra conservatives could overthrow McCarthy if all Democrats support them I Don't think all Democrats will though, and I think that's the kind of wrench in the situation of the math here.

Gates of Florida Republicans cited McCarthy's Embrace on Saturday of a bipartisan deal to avert a US Government shutdown as provocation for the Mutiny Bring It On says McCarthy and then obviously he responded with the now somewhat viral just did We are hearing that the Florida Republican Matt Gates Uh has moved to formally remove house Speaker Kevin Mcarthy as Speaker Of course he had said already on the weekend that he would file a motion to vacate the chair this week. Uh, he would be seizing on a parliamentary process that has not necessarily resulted in a speaker removal vote since 1910 at least, but this, of course coming after the US narrowly averted a government shutdown with speaker McCarthy calling the bluff of Hardline Republicans and pushing that last minute compromise uh, temporary spending bill which of course will keep the government running till November 17th. Whoa. What? Just oh it just a a hard cut like that.

that was interesting. Okey doie. On to the next thing house. Speaker McCarthy defends leadership says Gates has personal issues This was breaking news as of this morning so I just wanted to talk about it m Gat says plan to do this from the very beginning uh McCarthy said on CNBC Squawkbox we'll track that down but there's other things I want to get to before the Market opens so we are going to come back to Squawkbox.

Uh, just so you know, Gates introduced a motion to vacate motion on table. No motion on table. so this is just like I guess the process of how it like it has to go on the table. then it needs to pass or fail vote to motion to vacate fails pass.

so this is how it all plays out. I Just thought it was an interesting diagram. if you guys want to get into more of the political side of things, but there you go there you have it. This was posted by The Washington Post of what the flow would be also talking about I Guess politics and alting and some drama Trump New York Fraud trial ends first day with tax accountant testimony.

The two $250 million civil fraud child that could see Donald Trump permanently banned from doing business in New York ended its first day I Looked a little bit more into this and I don't really get what the Attorney General's doing because this is much more high stakes and I think the average person kind of just knows the results and the highlevel argument of like oh yeah, like there's something going on with New York Not really like the nitty-gritty detail and my point in bringing this up is if you go against someone like Trump and you end up losing such as like various indictments already have, it really just emboldens the the base. the supporter base. sorry about that. This is why I'm never going to be on good morning uh America or Regis and Kelly well that's cuz Regis isn't there.

What's it now Michael and Kelly Kelly and Michael whatever it is. Um, anyway if you come after him, he can't lose like you have to have a very, very strong case because if you do go after them and you end up losing, the supporter base is really going to dig their heels in. And this one by many, many legal accounts, it just does not have much. Merit and I'm not saying hey, like I completely support Trump I'm not in any way saying I'm against him I'm just we're just trying to go through facts, we're just trying to cover the news and in an attempt to be as neutral as we possibly can.

Sometimes it's fun just to get like some people in here spun up cuz I know they're going to have different opinions. but I'm saying on the legal merits of this case, when you have an AG who's paying the judge, the jury, the Executioner and even just the small things of like completely devaluing like to a clear degree the real estate, it's going to make their the Attorney General's case really tough as in good chance that they end up losing and if they do lose well, all of a sudden like their goal of discrediting Trump, it's going to have the opposite effect I Feel like they just don't have a good reading on the situation in the current state. the psychological state of America cuz like these supporters are going to take this and run with it. So um, we're going to see how it plays out.

But anyway, the AG is accusing Trump and two of his children and the Trump organization and its top officials of engaging in a yearslong pattern of financial fraud James alleges the defendants mated the values of real estate properties by billions of dollars and business records to obtain better loans and insurance terms and tax benefits I'm not a lawyer I don't speak legally so basically they're coming after Trump for fraud. but generally in fraud you have someone who is defrauded. and in this particular case, the alleged fraud was used to obtain better loans and insurance terms. but all these loans were successfully paid off or being paid like it wasn't like the it wasn't like the numbers were used to lie, they got a better loan and then the loan was defaulted on.

That didn't happen so generally I guess once again, not aure don't speak legal e but in a fraud case generally there's a victim of someone who's defrauded and in this case it seems like it's going to be tough to prove who was harmed by the event. Speaking of Trials and clear-cut examples of who was harmed today is the official start of the S Bakman Freed FTX trial from 26 billion to buzz San Bakman Freed's Aston Ing rise and fall. You know who? Well, it's far less important important, but the rise and fall I think Michael Lewis might have just torpedoed his career I Don't know he's an author he wrote Flash Boys He wrote a lot of books that I've read I enjoyed his books and his recent commentary on 60 Minutes About this he's still acting like Sam Bakman fre is a good guy I I I don't like I don't know I'm actually um, a little dismay by it because like I really like some of his books I thought he was an intellect I thought he was a good writer I thought he covered important stories but if you watch the 60 minutes I guess breakdown of this: Michael Lewis The guy who like was writing a book on S Bakman freed and now it's pivoting to the downfall of S. Bakman freed Uh, he see is seemingly on his side and you don't have to take my word for it.

Go watch the 60 Minutes interview I played some of it and then they uh gave me a DMC yesterday. so I can't replay it today. but check it out and he's basically saying positive things about him. it it it really is blowing my mind.

The 8 billion Sam Bakman Freed's criminal trial starts today. Here's what's at stake and how we got here: Sam Bakman freed AKA SPF Criminal trial kicks off with jury selection in New York Today Tuesday I wish I was on I really do I wish I got like asked to be part of the jury. The X CEO of FTX faces seven criminal counts including: Wii fraud Securities fraud and money laundering. A conviction on all counts could land him more than 100 years in prison.

That's quite a bit. I'm going to come back to this video. but I want you to know Macar Locals.com Uh my it's a newsletter you're going to get a Weekly Newsletter comes out every weekend. Uh, breakdown of the previous week.

What? I'm looking forward to the upcoming week gives you all the major macroeconomic events. For example, today at 10: A.m. we're going to get the Jolts Job Openings report for August that once again comes out at 10:00 A.m. a half hour into the trade day.

we also have ADP tomorrow. We also have crude oil inventories normal Thursday stuff unemployment report comes out on Friday all the earnings. We're not really an earning season, but I think a lot of you will be paying attention to till Ray comes out before the Market opens tomorrow. The seasonality for today, it's leaning slightly bearish, but bearish kind of neutral.

It's in the middle, not a strong seasonal presence today. tomorrow is very bullish. Thursday is neutral Friday is bearish. An update of the option strategy.

Speaking of which, uh I gave three call outs yesterday Uno Uh do Trace one on the spy and two on the Q's uh I Want to give you a quick breakdown: I have the number somewhere here to take all three of these trades. All three of these trades at a one unit size, it would have taken you $258 So if you had $258 in your account, you could have taken one of each of these and all three of them will count that as a unit. Obviously, you could scale it up however you want. so anyway, it would have cost $258 It return $42 if you took all three per unit, which was a return of 16% with 100% capture rate.

So right here if you like this. hey, we did three yesterday starting off the week strong, going three for three 16% return. 258 was minimum to take all three, but obviously you could scale it up however many multiples you want anyway. Uh, if there's any questions on these cuz they were all put credit spreads.

Uh, but if you have questions on put credit spreads, call Credit spreads. Any of that stuff obviously feel free to ask. uh, more than happy to die into it with all of you. And with that being said, the market should be open Now It is open Now It is Open now.

Ding it Ding Ding ding. The casino is open Play responsibly. If not, have boatloads of fun and may the degenerate Gods above support your YOLO thesis. All right, while we're waiting for the market to open, we're going to wait those first 10 15, 20 minutes.

That type of a deal? Uh, we don't need to go over this cuz you already know all the things you should know for the market today. Uh, in terms of the spy, let's just quickly look at the daily chart. We're right at the potential serious breakdown level. We have this trend line.

We have support around two 424, we have support. At 423. we are in a big region of support. If it breaks down, that gets really, really bad.

But if we bounce off of it, the trend line the support level. If we recapture 428 429, that's up sub 432 as of right now. I I Believe there's actually a very decent chance that the Spy goes above 430 by the end of this week. It's by no means a guarantee.

By no means a guarantee. it's just what I'm seeing in the world of options and where a lot of big players have been positioning themselves. So uh, let me reload this. This is the NASDAQ.

Let me reload this. This is the S&P 500, but just a general sense of like where a lot of people are positioned. Actually, where can I'm indices and and then if we look at SPX So right here next expiration I Want all the expirations right here. the expiration concentration right here.

When we get to the end of this month, uh, or I guess the main expiration, you're seeing a lot a lot of the notional value. the Delta notional value on the put side, which I Think there's reason to believe that a lot of these market makers might want these people to be burned, so that's a little bit later. That's um, right now. I'm highlighting 1020 so October 20th.

But before then, um, and I don't want to do it right now. But if you look at the current exploration basically where we're at and you look at where all the Gamma Delta value is, it feels like there's actually a pretty nice wall of support on the spy at 425 right where we're at. uh, right here. put wall.

large volatility, trigger something else. Um, all right. Well, we have to let some data come in, but we know there's a lot of jocking for position at 425, so I would in, no way be surprised if 425 acts as support. So I'm looking for 425 to act as support and a pop up to 430.

I'm looking for us to probably get to the end of the week above 430 and obviously this isn't a guarantee. this is just a thesis of what I'm seeing where the money's going in the options Market But obviously time will tell so just wanted to bring that to your attention of what I'm seeing there. Oh I was using this quite a bit yesterday. You guys saw like some of the trading and stuff I was doing uh spot Gamma.

It's honestly one of the best platforms I have ever found. For a breakdown of what's really going on in the world of option trading, it's pinned at the top of chat it's in the description of the video. um what I was showing you yesterday was a bunch of this uh hero h o not H E R O u But anyway, what I really like to do is get this set up all right. That's good and we're just going to use this for some intraday stuff.

So uh this is is the S&P 500 spy right there. This is the NASDAQ uh the white line is the price line obviously from Market open till now, the purple line is all options expiration and we're seeing kind of the net difference and then the teal line. This green line right here is for the next expiration. but when you're looking at things like the Spy or the NASDAQ the next expiration happens to be that day And it's interesting just to see how sometimes this can serve as a leading indicator.

But once again, this is spot Gamma. They are the sponsor of today's Stream So if you wanted. check it out uh, pinned to the top of chat and if you use that link if you use the code course KRS you could get a two-e trial to see if you like their platform personally. I really like it I'm getting used to it I'm by no means saying I'm an expert with it uh, but every day spending a couple hours diving into their resources and how they use it and thus far I have to say I've been pretty impressed with it.

but anyway, uh, this is spot GMA Pinn to the top of chat in the description of the video and on that note, we're getting some form of a bounce back right now. Um, so this spy we kind of looked at the levels wanting it to recapture this like I think this is support right here I Really, really do. Obviously that thesis goes bus if we're below 423, but time will tell on the Q's uh, behaving a little bit more strongly than the Spy just because it they don't have the utilities included in here. Uh, it's just not part of the NASDAQ How's Apple looking Apple kind of weak, but mid-range today Microsoft Little Bit Stronger strong bounce off of like the low 300s Tesla mid-range waiting for it to get above 255 or below 243.

They had their production and delivery numbers yesterday below Wall Street estimates, but not by much and the stock actually ended up having a pretty nice recovery yesterday. Nvidia Is the stock that just I Don't know if it's just jacked up on Viagra what's going on, but this stock just does not quit right when you think it's officially going to break down and be done. Boom. Recaptured the trend line from The Gap up after its earnings back in May of this year.

Uh, if it holds here, if it can hold this trend line, this fake out breakdown is inherently bullish. I would then be watching 460 Netflix looking pretty weak cannot recapture 384 Meta actually looking strong. Maybe a cup and handle, maybe an inverse shoulder head shoulder showing a little bit of optimism there? Amazon Um, got knocked ever since the FTC investigation was announced. Uh, but then from there it swept these lows at Uh 126 and recovered from that.

So maybe coming back up to test 132 136 might really just be going in line with whatever the direction of the NASDAQ is. so. uh, oil, uh, pushed all the way up to 94 I was looking right. Here was my target 93 64 ever since there.

Maybe a triple bottom watching to see how it reacts to the high 80s. Uh, so watching that right now and that's kind of it. Um, other than that, we know in about 20 minutes 22 minutes we're going to get the jolts report. So just an important jobs update that's going to be coming out.

hopefully Rick is reporting on it I'd be stoked if he were and that's kind of all she wrote for right now. for right now. for right now, let me actually: I never logged into my own trading platform this morning I should probably do that sometimes I forget my password, your kids cut you off. don't know what that means? don't even know if it was necessarily meant for me.

Uh, but yeah, sure, my kids cut me off I don't know? Isn't Rachel mat on somewhere I Feel like there's a big conversation going on that I just was not part of and now I'm coming in at the end of the conversation with no context clues whatsoever. just I I Suppose I'm generically lost. but hey, it happens. It happens, It happens, It happens.

Uh, can I make this smaller? Will my training platform even let me in today? The Cu's may be going a little bit to the upside: The Q's the Cu's the Cu's uh order submitted. Why can I not do that order filled Target fill I It scalped it, but it was way too small of a scalp I was attempting to go a little bit faster locked in like a baby amount uh I was I wasn't quick enough at moving up my profit Target so that's a bit of a BM armor uh, so small C Small scalp already locked in on the day? uh but all these trading platforms are still loading and they're taking forever. Um shoot I had up the wrong screen but you heard it so already locked in 120 gross realized total Pnl 120 120 uh little scalp over here. you can see the entry and the exit.

Uh I was attempting to go a bit higher but couldn't move it in time. but actually honestly I got lucky cuz it looks like it got cracked from there so already you locked in a quick 120 on that push in the Qes. But really the way I felt comfortable or the reason I felt comfortable for doing that is obviously things are trending upward. it's I don't know I like trading with Trend But also just like my thesis of what I'm seeing in the options Market is I Think that the Spy really might be putting in this base here at 425.

Obviously, time will tell. Nothing's ever guaranteed I Mean your guesses are as good as mine? Uh, speaking of which, I didn't ask you today. Are you guys feeling bullish or bearish? What are your thoughts on? Sofi I haven't looked at Sofi well as I'm bringing up Sofi Tell me if you're bullish or bearish on the Sofi is not looking good right now Shoulder head shoulder. Uh, broke this trend line.

It looked like a little bit of a liquidity sweep. Try to pop back up, put in a lower, uh, high. this is not looking good for right now. Um, it got all jacked up when people heard that uh, the student loan repayments are going to start so people got really excited about that and I don't know.

It seems like it should keep going up, but very obviously from a price action standpoint, this is not looking the best right now. Look high, lower lows. Support breakdown: I'm not saying I'm against Sofi but I'm just saying like, look at the price. action does not look so so hot right now does not look so hot at the moment in time.

Uh, be interesting. how do I set an alert on this? ADD Alert ADD Alert ADD alert this one I don't know if I did it right and I don't know if these alerts do. they update properly like per bar. So I want to know if it's going to cross this slow EMA line which I think is like the 34 and the only reason I'm curious about that today is because I was doing some back testing on it.

um for will this update I don't know. we'll come back and see if it works that way. Oh uh. someone Was asking about this I Forgot to say so the beta version of the Discord that obviously we could chat in, especially when I'm not streaming.

If you guys don't want to listen to me, you guys can chat in it. Um, it. it's going. uh.

the point is, it's going to be like a quote unquote normal trading Discord But on top of that, there's going to be certain rooms where just robotic signals are sent in there of like overbought, oversold Crossing interesting, long, interesting, short, that type of a thing. But um I think in the world of trading and maybe you guys have noticed this, maybe you haven't I Think there's too many people who are just like oh I have a gut feeling oh I think Tesla's going up oh I think Microsoft's going down. That's not how you win in trading. Let's be honest.

all these people who are like oh like I just feel good about this. This they don't have any math to back it up. I Think there are very very few trading gurus trading furus out there who when you ask them about their trading system can actually tell you their Edge what is the percentage chance of them winning? What's their average win size? What's their average loss size? And to me, the game of the markets is math I Think you need to think about markets the way you would poker, the way you would Blackjack of knowing The odds of the situation, the chance of you winning versus losing. how much you should bet, proper betting that type of a thing.

I Think you succeed in the world with actually understanding the math of markets. not stupid gut feelings of like Oh I just I'm just going to Y like it's fun to do it, but that's not how you have longevity in this game. So what I'm attempting to do and why the the technical process has been a bit more difficult is piping all of those signals into a Discord and a readable format. Um, so it's working.

We are actually really, really close to getting done. Uh, so I'm hoping like I don't know. We've kind of been doing the Alpha Testing with like the coder and me and some other Traders Uh, so we're going to be rolling out the beta version either at the end of this week, but most likely next week and then we're going to do that for the remainder of October And then after we get all those whatever, the bugs and everything figured out. uh, we're going to be rolling it out to everyone so just wanted to share that of how it's all going.

Girl math for the win. Yeah, lot of lot of girl math. It's trust me bro all the way down. Exactly like if you can't tell the odds of a situation.

So those zero DTE strategies, the math of it is perfectly known. It's perfectly known. looking at the strikes, looking at the market. it's based on historical data.

It's based on what the Delta values, the Gamma values are on the options market and I can sit there telling you depending on what you're trading has roughly an 80 to 85% accuracy. That's how it works I know the average wins I know the average losses if you don't have a system it It blows my mind that people are out there like just selling I Guess what? their opinion on the market and if their opinion on the market was that good, where's their hedge fund? That's always a question I have is if if they're that good at it um, why are they doing that and like I Admit my gut feelings on the market 50% of the time write 100% of the time like and that's honestly true for some of the hedge funds. we know for analysts we know a lot of people are only write half the time because these markets are very, very binary. So the question is is if you if we all kind of just accept that like no one's gut feeling is really better than the next person's gut feeling to the point that like even hedge funds are commonly losing on this, that and the other thing.

well okay, if if that's not necessarily the skill set that continually makes you money, what is and I would argue I would contest that the way to consistently make money in the market is finding a system that has positive, expected return and taking that system trade over and over and over and over again and basically having the discipline to never deviate from it. That's my opinion. Maybe you agree, Maybe you disagree. Uh, but there are a lot of people out there who I mean I look at it and a lot of them for whatever reason were born from like the AMC Community which tells me that they started Trading like a month before AMC ever happened.

They've been trading since 2021 and none of them are publicly posting their trades they don't have. like, where's their accounts? show us all the information Um, I'm not necessarily saying you have to sign up for my locals Community find the person who resonates for you I I Fully believe in that. but I'm telling you this as a person who spent thousands and thousands and thousands of dollars on trading gurus and trading furus. If that person who you're about to give money isn't being 100% % transparent of their account their trades when they got in, when they got out their entry value, their exit value.

if they are not opening their books to you, do Not listen to them. I'm telling you right away, that should be the biggest red flag possible. That is the biggest red flag possible. You don't have to sign up for mine, but I'm saying whoever you Cho to choose to do it with, make sure they are Beyond transparent with every single thing they do Ads good or bad coming Nick How would anyone know? um How would how would anyone know Right on? Show us your passwords too.

Yeah, your passwords your Social Security your lock combination, your Netflix signin. If they're not giving you all that are, they really are. They really meant to be a teacher. You're routing in account numbers for all your banking information, your internet search history.

That's the type of things. you guys, your mom's maiden name, your first pet's name, the city you were born in. if they're not giving you that is that really is that really the person you want to be dealing with? Have you been watching the precious metals Market Gold is looking like a buy to Copper Going to start losing theand will dang everything down. So gold is really confusing to me right now.

Really like based on what we're seeing in yields based on what we're seeing in the market, based on what we're seeing in Gold I Think we're seeing a lot of contradictory pieces of information. Classic investing advice would be like oh wow. bonds look like crap. The world's a little bit scared.

Yields are spiking. We have inflation. You would expect gold to be not just going up, but to be dramatically going up. And if anything, Gold's been going the other way.

So stocks are acting like we're in a recession and then Gold's acting like we're clearly done with the recession. And we talked about this in more detail yesterday, but lots of contradictory. lots of contradictory information. Um, so with it I mean it.

It depends on time frame. I know like when you're talking to a large group of people like this like I know we're all on different time frames. So if you want my opinion on what happens with gold today I Have no idea. looks pretty bearish.

Maybe it keeps going. That's a dramatic breakdown and a continuation in the selloff. This is gold on the feutures market. by the way, Will it bounce back? maybe? I don't know I See ma Major support here.

Like, but once again I am not an analyst I'm not a person who's running a hedge fund and I have like a um, like an Outlook of where gold going to perform in the next month. that's not my for time I effectively do two things in the market: I have a long-term account that has things like Microsoft Nvidia Tesla the overall Market as in the Spy the NASDAQ things like that and I'm like, okay, cool. I'm going to hold those for years or decades so I don't need a call out for the next month, the next 12 months, the next two years, it doesn't matter I put money in there and then it sits. And it sits.

and it sits. The other form of thing I Do is not investing. It's just trading and that's much more of sometimes I day trade, sometimes I swing trade. But like these, call like my forte and my skill set is by no means where will gold be in a year.

Some people are very good at that. That's just not what I'm good at. and I don't do it cuz I that's just not the waters that I'm splashing around it. That's just not my skill set.

So whatever your skill set is, stick to it. You're going to get paid to be an expert in something, not to have a breath of knowledge and everything. Maybe you love degenerately trading options? Maybe you're really good at it. Okay, cool.

stick to it. Stick to it on the time frame that you are good at. If you're good at investing, stick to that. If you're good at selling premium, get very, very very like, absurdly good at a specific thing.

That is what the market pays you for. in any any Market It doesn't matter if it's crypto options. Futures uh, equities. you get paid for having an expertise you do not get paid for.

Just like generically, knowing a little bit about everything. It's good to know a little bit about everything, but then you need to spec. pick a specific thing where you double, triple, quadruple down. Maybe you love trading Commodities on the Futures Market on like a a swing basis.

Great. Get super good at that. Understand the mechanics of what moves it in that time frame. What move? something in the long term is different from the medium term is different from the short term.

and you can make money doing all these things on all different time frames. I'm not here to preach that, only there's only one appropriate way to make money. No, there's many, many ways to make money and you need to do what's appropriate for your lifestyle. How much time can you dedicate to looking at the markets? You need to do what's appropriate for your account size and also appropriate for your personality.

What works for me might not work for you. Maybe we have some overlap. Maybe we're completely different. Or maybe we're the exact same.

But a lot of people try to pitch like their one thing as like the ultimate way to be and it's just not. It's just not right. That's just not who like. That's not how markets work I'm not such a good dad I Don't like my kids until they move out and pay their own way.

All right, that's one way to start it off. What trading platform do you recommend for? TOP Step I Just use ninja Trader but that's I don't know I just I Haven't heard a I I have nothing bad to say about the other one. Was it like Quant Tower or something? I just never used it before and I had used ninja before so I just felt a little bit more comfortable with it. What's your favorite strategy? Uh, that's tough I guess it's more of a I feel like Jordan Peterson but like what do you mean by favorite? Honestly, the thing that makes me the if there was a ratio of Returns versus effort obviously you want the highest returns with the most minimal amount of effort.

If that's what we defined as favorite, it would be my long-term investing cuz it's so easy and over the long term you can make dramatic returns I mean like even look at Microsoft I I looked at it the other day I think my average value on it is $190 Microsoft is trading at 320. I mean that's what a 75% return something in that Realm and all I had to do was hit buy and then I just collect the dividends and I don't think about it I don't do like there are days and weeks and months that go by that I don't think about my Microsoft in investment now with the show and daily updates. I'll think about what it's doing in the short term but there are times that I forget that I'm invested in Microsoft So if we were to think about like I said if we Define Favorite as your best returns but almost considering how much like stress it took the the emotional Capital to get that return, it damn near took zero emotional capital I hit Byy back in like 2018, 2019 or something like that. I'm the last time I bought Microsoft and since then I just sat and I sat and I sat and I sat and I sat and I didn't do anything and I'm just seeing my account slowly but surely go up pretty much the same thing with Tesla it's a little bit more volatile.

um I don't think I have Invidia anymore I think I got out in the 300s which obviously I'm kicking myself now, but it it depends how you look at it. So for me, I'm definitely a high functioning like gambling addict. so I still really like doing the zero DTE stuff I mean when the market closed yesterday and I saw that all three of the zero DT trades hit I was stoked I was like it. There's something very, very rewarding of putting in the effort to back test the system and then getting the balls to be like okay I think I like the numbers.

Let's see if it plays out in practice and then all of a sudden you start seeing it play out in practice and and it's mimicking or it's reflecting what you expected it to do. There's something very I guess like intellect intellectually satisfying about that. So I like it. um I Also like coming in here and being able to like talk to you guys about be like look, it's crushing.

it's doing exactly what I thought it would do. so I like that, but it's from person to person, it's tough and I don't want to really make any generalized uh like statements because I'm sure there's people in here who maybe do something exactly opposite of what I'm saying and make a lot of money. but I want to let you know this in a general sense: the longer your time frame, the higher your chance of being successful as in if you are a day trader. Just the odds tell us that if you become a swing Trader you're probably going to do better.

If you're a swing Trader and you become an investor, The odds tell us once again, not for everyone that you will probably be better instead of going long on premium buying calls, buying puts the odds, tell us that you would be better off selling premium selling calls. selling puts um, once again, this is not true for everyone. but if I'm talking to an audience of a couple thousand people, the average person will be better off by lengthening their time frame. And if you're in the world of options, selling, premium, not being long, premium, um, that's probably those two statements are probably generic Aly true.

Also, in the world of Futures Market I don't know much about uh, options right now. just like in terms of statistics, Uh, just because it hasn't been I haven't done it deep dive. It hasn't been around that long. Obviously, if you got in, what a decade ago, you're still looking pretty good in the world of crypto.

Obviously these, uh, like random coins are kind of equivalent to I guess like penny stocks and they kind of Creator but if we're talking just about like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Obviously the play was to get in early and just sit and sit and sit. Kind of like the overall Market Um so I guess if you have specific questions for your thing uh, obviously feel free to reach out to me when the Discord is like up and running and officially going like hey, if you guys want to have like week weekend calls where we all kind of chat about ideas and potential I guess strategies and things like that I'm more than willing to do it if you have questions right now DM me I Try to get reach out or respond to as many of you as I can. Unfortunately, there's only 24 hours in the day.

um, but it's It's really, really tough to give generalized statements and examples when we're all in completely different situations. A sleepover? Yeah, you guys can all come to my like one and a half bedroom apartment in New York and just like I'll put a hundred you of you up. We'll kind of like make it look like a boat where there's like a multi-layer uh I guess bunk bed and I'm just obviously not going to tell my fiance about it and we'll just fill all the walls with it. Yeah, no, these are all phenomenal ideas that I'm for Piper's for my fiance.

she might not be for it. but I think it's worth it I think it's worth it. All right. Uh, so I did one little scalp trade run out of Texas Roadhouse Well that's where we're getting eat every day.

like this is coming together. So much more room for activities. See You get it, You get it, You get it, You get it. Uh, let's see how the options Market is looking right now.

Once again, uh, if you want this, it's pinned to the top of chat. You could get a two-e trial see if it's appropriate for you, but spin to the top of chat. it's in the description of the video It's called spot Gamma. By far it is the most quality options information I've seen like of actual breaking down what's going on I know there's some competitors.

Um, but in terms of the internal options data I don't know of one that's better. Uh I didn't want to actually switch this over to the Spy though. let's go to the spy spy. let's go to the cues.

Okay, so let's start with the spy. Let's see what's going on right now. Uh, the Spy a key Gamma strike and a put wall at 425 to me I Would interpret that to say that hey hey brother, good chance we're not below 425. by the end of the day it could happen.

but I think the odds of that are not close to 50/50 and look at that. the Spy is going up. Now in terms of what we're actually seeing in the world of options right now, pretty flat. I Think everyone might just be waiting for this 10: A.m.

result: We're not really seeing a spike in favor of the bulls or a drop in favor of the Bears if we look at the cues a little bit of a drop, they got a flow alert right here. Uh, but to me if I see alerts before 10 a.m. I Kind of just chalk it up to not really mean that much even though the cues are going up. I'm seeing the nasak options sell off, so that's feeling a little bit more bearish.

But once again, let's just wait for the 10:00 a.m. like numbers to come out. I see someone asking about Tesla more than happily look it up Tesla Uh, it did pop with the options Market but that's going flat right now. there's a hedge wall at 24750 as in, probably a good shot that if it gets down there today, maybe bounces off of it.

None of this is ever a guarantee. But also, don't be surprised about a a tight range cuz there's a key gammer strike at 250 key technical level, key psychological level. Now it's a key options level. and then there's a hedge wall at 24750.

So I wouldn't be the most surprised if it's a tighter range on Tesla today. Um, we have that. What's another one you guys like? Nvidia Nvidia Hedge Wallet 445 Call Wallet 450 Once again, wouldn't be surprised if it's more of a a tighter range like not just making the most movement but these expire Friday They don't have daily ones the way the spy and the Q's do. That's why I like these a little bit better just because it tells you like potentially what you could look at for that individual day.

On that note, uh I believe this is starting soon. We should be getting the Jolts data, let's see what the expectation is and then from there maybe we can make some more degenerate plays. Jolts Job openings. Uh, 8.8 million is the forecast 8.8 million.

Remember, we live in an upside down world where a good report can actually be bad for the market because it has an influence on how hawkish doish the central bank will be at the next Fomc meeting which is the first Wednesday of November I believe it's November 1st or something like that, is that right? Yeah, Wednesday November 1st. So uh, waiting for this information to come out, but the Market's probably already racting just got stood. Ohc ouch. Almost says if the options Market knew something.

the cues have been selling off ever since 955 the street Sarah in with Mike Santoli today and David Faber As always from9 of the New York Stock Exchange Carl Is On Assignment Taking a look at stocks this hour, selling off again down half a percent on the S&P 500 NASDAQ down today, two down 610 It's still positive on the week because it got a rally yesterday, but those gains are slipping. The only sector right now that's higher in the S&P materials Industrials and Staples were up there too SP back to 425 key support level see if it bounces utility. the the rates is sweeping more sectors into the red and the tenure yield is above 4.7% bouncing off of 425. Going back to 2007 30 minutes here into the trading session here, three big movers.

we're watching HP Birkshire Haway revealing that they have paired the stake in the company down to 10% but Bank of America says the stock has bottomed here, making a rare double upgrade of the name from sell to buy this morning, it's up 3% Eli Lily Signing a deal to buy cancer therapy maker Us Sh opening AUST Uh yeah, it came in higher than expected. 9.6 million versus 8.8 million. The estimate was 8. we live in that upside down world.

the BG Lagard right now. Good reports. bad for the market 2% volume suggestive of the current state of inflation. The thing that's UPS High inflation.

No. so these good reports better performance, which is not a great reason to upgrade. Guidance and some of the weakness in in China Asia in particular, held back organic growth. Good to know because Jim and I were discussing that in the last hour as well.

It wasn't a terrible quarter, still going down, something to pick up there. Spy right at 425 right now. that's watch. Let get to new data on job openings out just moments ago.

Rick Santel's in the house and he has that for us. Rick Yes, absolutely a surprise. Strong number for job openings and labor turnover. affectionately known as Jolts Number 9 million 610,000 That best estimates and it is the best level going back to May when it was slightly higher at 9,611 2016, a revision also putting a little extra horsepower.

Uh, last month's 8, 827,000 now stands at 8, 920,000 and of course rates moving up towards the high Zone Remember, the roller coaster ride can be wild, but I always like when it stops. it's the close that matters most. The technicians and if any close above 470. many that have been trying to pick a temporary top will of course uh, concede and you might see some late session selling pushing yields even more aggressively to the upside.

David Sarah Back to you All right? Yeah, reaction is Swift and big in the in the Bond market, look at the intraday of the 10year yield on the back of that hotter report on job openings moving back above the 9 million remark: Remember fewer than 9 million last month for the first time since 2021 the Fed the market wants to see this number come down. Why? Because it speaks to to the tightness of the labor market at the cycle high it was two openings for every job, we got back down to one and a half. We're Rising again and look at the reaction yield higher. This is not helpful for the higher yield trade 4.74% This is going to increase the chances that the FED has to go again in November Actually, the two-year yield also pretty dramatic reaction on that number from 508 to 514.

So that's more of the the FED side of things as opposed to the Cong by treasury. P. You know yesterday's stronger than expected ISM number as well. Not really the key driver to what's happening in the Bond market, but everything seems to be pushing in the same direction right now.

which okay, maybe the Econom is going to be I'm posting some of these the Z D trades, all the signals are popping off like in addition to all the supply and demand impact that we've been seeing in the market. And to me, just looking at the stock market and the way it tries to metabolize what's happening in the bond market, anything that seems like forced or price incens postive selling off the rails Once the bonds have already started to look like they're stretched to the downside, the yield stretch to the upside. it just unnerves you. and D are now UPC With all that said, the stock market somehow at this point holding above last week's lows, trying to put on a in front of it hard.

but it's be we at the low from yesterday, new high 475 on the 10 if this keeps going. Dude, the market not like this Spike up. Look this, it's not helpful. The FED if it doesn't quickly recapture 2450 like very quickly, the next stop is 423 I would argue thees they're coming to their low from yesterday.

If this doesn't hold at 358, we'll call it then I'm watching 357 the low from Friday of last week. I Think that you know it is likely that we'll need to rate U keep rates up um, for some time in order to be effective. uh, in bringing inflation down to 2% I'm confident that we'll get there and then Meer Who doesn't have a vote this time, but she's as a Cleveland Fed President, but often kind of comes down around the center I Think that she sounds a little like Powell Here's here's what she's saying about where rates need to go: I Suspect we may well need to raise the FED funds rate once more this year and then hold it there for some