Good morning, Good morning, Good morning. Welcome back to I Guess the early version of The Mad Core Show today is what? Thursday September 21st I Guess we'll call it the day after. the day after and apparently the bloody Stock Market Carnage that we all experienced yesterday. Well, I guess it's continuing today.

Hi scared I'm Dad oh Stone said I'm scared Mom I'm scared. Yeah, you you and me both. You're probably not scared if you yellowed your entire portfolio into one day Puts. Not that I'm suggesting that by any means, but if you did that, you're probably crushing it.

You're probably feeling like real, real good right now. Robert Yeah, Puts Puts Puts. Is that what you had? Robert you swinging some Puts right now? you swing in some puts into the day. Did you do something you knew was statistically not safe, but you crushed it anyway.

Uh, jeez. Geez. Louise things are not looking good and I kind of wanted to talk about it. yeah.

I Wanted to start a little bit earlier today just because obviously I figured there would be some questions, comments, concerns. generally just some good discussion related to the bearishness we're currently seeing in the market. But I also found two other interesting stories that I thought would take a little bit of time. So I just wanted to get through with everyone before that stock market Bell goes dingy ding ding dong today.

Good morning, Good morning, good morning, Yes, good morning Matt Robert dude, what were you Robert share with the class, which strike and what expiration are you looking at Michael Berry must be very, very happy with all his puts. um, he might be I'm wondering if the movement to the downside is enough yet to overcome like his. Theta Decay I'd have to look into the specifics of the position. buying calls it open Gap field and down down we go.

Yes, there's an upside capital on both the cues and the spy at least when I just checked uh charts. but we'll see what happens when the market actually opens. Uh, putting everything into perspective. What else do we have to lose? I I mean I Suppose that's just a question of life in general.

Isn't it of just what else is there to be lost? It doesn't matter. 361 expires tomorrow. Oh so you must be playing it on the queues, not on the Spy imagine you had puts. Yeah, so I personally don't have puts right now.

uh I've been like just so focused on passing that TOP Step training combine which hey, successfully did it and actually yesterday after I didn't really do I did I guess one trade on my normal account but on the prop account I waited till Jerome Powell was basically done speaking. took a couple short positions into close and obviously that paid out pretty nicely. So I think that account the first day of the fully funded prop account up 1400. I was looking in the ways to get out the money though and I guess one of the rules is you have to have either 30 profitable trading days or five profitable training days above 200.

Uh, so I don't think I can access that money until I have four more profitable trading days really. And I'm just saying that because generally when I trade, it's like definitely with more size than plus or minus two hundred dollars. But I don't know. we'll see, we'll see.

it's a journey for me and I count and just want to share the whole thing with you of how tough it is, how tough it isn't Um, at first I started with Apex now I'm On Top step just because people reach out to me. literally just fans of the show. We're like Hey try TOP Step We like the website, it's a harder challenge. Maybe you could let us know your process with it.

So we kind of tried out both and in all reality, uh, I'm with Top Step right now. It's mainly just because that's where my funded account is, but they're pretty similar to me. like in my mind now that I've gone through Apex last month and then TOP Step this month. Uh, they're they're pretty similar.

but I don't know. Maybe I'm missing something? Maybe someone in here feel free to feel feel free to share your thoughts and opinions. Uh, because like I said, I'm pretty new to this but we'll see question for you guys. Uh, has nothing to really do with the markets I suppose it might have something to do with like the political situation currently going on, but whatever happened with Aiden Ross the kickstreamer and Kim Jong-un did he end up like? What was that? Because wasn't the whole thing supposed to go down yesterday? Does anyone know where that did go? where that didn't go? I I'm just now I mean it was intriguing enough for me to ask about it.

It was fake. He he was fake to so like what was it an AI thing? Oh, it was an impersonator. uh hey, how come you didn't wear your tie with that shirt with this shirt? My D-gen shirt DJ a fake Kim Jong-un I Feel like that's the kind of thing that if you do it you kind of get on to like the actual Kim Jong-un's like death wish list so maybe not the smartest move. it was the person with an Aussie accent Tate was on it too.

Jesus Jesus I mean funny, it got enough people talking about it in terms of marketing. I mean here we are talking about it and we have real, like no real connection to Aiden Ross or any of that stuff. So who knows he lost the most amount of viewers during a short period of time? Aiden Ross Did I mean he might have lost in terms of magnitude, but isn't he still like a top 10 streamer in the world? I'm not saying his contents particularly for me, but at least as a streamer I Respect him because his numbers like Dwarf Mine um obviously he's going after a different audience I believe I Would assume his audience is like much younger than my audience and obviously we're here to talk about the market, the economy. like degenerate trading.

Um, but hey, just in pure magnitude, he he? Dwarfs Mine We bullish today, man. I'm not I'm not going into this day bullish. I'm going into this day waiting for my Zyrtec to kick into my system I Don't know why, but my like my big brain idea of getting up early, taking the Zyrtec going to the gym to do the stair stepper to put the antihistamine through my system. uh I I Guess that wasn't that that's not working for me today.

Hey, for anyone else who has allergies, is there really any difference between all of the allergy medicine like your Zyrtec your xyzal your Claritin is is like one, particularly better than the other one or I don't know but that that's where I'm at today. I'm more of waiting for the allergy medicine. Definitely not bullish, but also I'll be going over this like I'll do a chart review. We'll get into it.

Uh, But Not Only was yesterday a clear bearish development in terms of what Jerome Powell said. And really the tldr on it is relative to the previous expectations. and really, it's more than the SCP This summary of economic projections: um, the average Fed member believes that rates are going to remain higher for longer and the Market's Like Whoa We don't like that. And when Jerome Powell the chairman of the Fed was first speaking people like oh okay, like maybe he'll get it to bounce back and then there was a couple questions like halfway through that the Market's like oh oh no, he's like actually hawkish and we just kept selling, selling selling so not on an intraday basis.

Obviously it was bearish, but then if you look at the daily time frame, it was a clear technical breakdown. Uh, this might be the start of a little bit of a bearish trend we have going here. I usually call my doctor uh Zyrtec is the only reason I can live in Austin Texas Definitely just take them all and still feel like that's what I Do you know what's weird? use Flonase A couple people have told me to use Flonase this Flonase is where it's at. Are you guys chilling me like are you guys big pharmaceutical Representatives or something in here everyone's like dude, you gotta get on the Flonase train just everyone's dude.

There's two types of people in this world. people who take Flonase and people who don't take Flonase Uh, Bourbon, Honey and lemon juice works every works for everyone I just usually stick at bourbon in the morning. That's what I use for uh, like my hydration when I'm on the stair stepper I just usually do about like half a fifth of bourbon every single morning gets me going, slows me downs, and speeds me up at the same time. You guys know what I mean.

You know what I mean Flonase is nice. dude. Do you think Flonase would sponsor the channel? Imagine how much the AMC community on Twitter would lose their mind if I took a pharmaceutical sponsorship In a weird way I almost want to do it just to piss him off even more. I just feel like it's sponsored by big Pharma dude like I think Rumble the entirety of Rumble not even the AMC Community I think Rumble In general, every participant on Rumble would be like how dare you, how dare you take money from Big Pharma Statistically speaking, 10 out of the last 11 days in September are red.

Yeah, so I was looking at the seasonality and we could go over that profit. You're definitely calling out some quality stuff there. Uh, the latter part of September So seasonally, it's bearish. This just going into the start of October we have a bearish macroeconomic development and then also in terms of price action.

We had a clear breakdown, so there's a lot of things adding up to the fact that the Bears are in control right now. now. Is that a guarantee? Absolutely not. Obviously, I'm leading bears, but I'm still looking for that opportunity where I can get into a bearish position with less risk I Think that's the way to do it.

That's the way to do it. Hopefully Bior will sponsor you. dude. that stock uh Texas Roadhouse is under 100 I have an alert set at 90.

If it goes to below 90, there's a very good chance I'm picking some up. Same thing with I have some low level alerts on ROM I'm currently in terms of like a long-term investment I'm currently stocking lower levels on Jepq, Rum and then also txrh Those are the three that I have alerts where if it gets low enough I just want to throw in some money as a long-term investment Texas Roadhouse Rumble and then Jepq which is an ETF host of Ijp Morgan that has a what 10, 11 dividend. Uh, so those are the three that if they get to the levels those sweet, sweet, low levels I I wouldn't mind adding a bit to my account, so wanted to share that as well. I guess before we get into it, we don't really talk about LMNOP honestly I just add that one regardless of its price, if it's high, if it's low, if it's going backwards, if it's going forwards as if it's going inside out I'm always adding a little LMNOP uh to my account because like, you're just not going to go wrong with that one in the long term in my humble opinion.

But hey, I'm not a financial advisor. What do I know? Also, fair question: what does a financial advisor no I just want to throw that one out there. But anyway, uh oh Matt does have a Colombian head cold? Is that like a cocaine reference? a Colombian head cold Charles what does that mean It sounds like cocaine I've never done that stuff in my life and it's not because I uh am a person like I could never do that. It's like I have a super addictive personality and from all my friends who have ever touched it, they're like it's awesome I'm like, uh, it sounds a little too awesome.

so I definitely know, uh, enough about myself that it would end poorly if I ever if I ever touch it. so I just refuse to. um, just a little bit about me. super addictive personality and it sounds like a great time so that is probably it's awesome Dash friends lipser knows what's up.

hey I can hear you guys now I could hear you guys now uh oh all right, where's Piper she's oh she was being bad this morning she she was all jacked up I got up early I got up at five to go to the gym and when I got up she was already. She had the vibe this morning of being like hey man, what's going on I've already been up for hours I'm decorating uh I got up and I was like groggy and sleepy and she was already just zipping around the apartment just bouncing off the walls. There's some like acrobatic moves. she does that I think can only be pulled off if she's literally warping the gravity around her.

like sometimes when she's running on a wall. It's almost as if gravity instead of going like up and down is going sideways and it pushes her into the wall and she just sprints on the wall. and then she turns gravity back the norm Lane comes back to the ground. It's strange.

It's strange sometimes I see stuff and I almost am hesitant to tell my fiance or to tell you guys because it doesn't seem real like I feel like I see something that is almost distorting my reality in her acrobatic moves. I'm like yeah, I can't just tell anyone that because I'll sound like a crazy person. Um, what's my input on AMC Like right now? why did something happen with AMC the last I checked it was just going down a lot. Um, but that's what happens when fundamentally your company is in a poor situation.

But yeah, I mean it's at eight bucks. Which counting the split, that means it's at 81 cents. 82 cents. Like, without the split, this thing would be in danger of being dislisted.

delisted. Um, I Understand it if you read Reddit if you pay attention to Twitter if you go on Twitter Space calls. There's a certain cohort of people who could misconstrue this situation and contort the situation to make it seem as if this is an amazing fundamental opportunity. but in the current moment, AMC is much closer to bankruptcy than it is to fundamental success now.

obviously. I want it to be successful I want it to go up I'm invested in it. but if we're just being realistic of like which one it's closer to, it's much closer to bankruptcy than it is like just just like as as Adam Aaron would say uh, causing to the shorts to choke on that. it it's sad.

it's sad I'm in it I want it to go up. but I Also, I'm not just going to sit here and be like Oh Everything's great. Everything's great. when everything's obviously not great, look at the stock.

If it was that great, what's kind of funny about it is, uh, there's this like big argument. Uh, specifically on Twitter Space calls that like it's so fundamentally great and it's just getting knocked down, knocked down, knocked down. Think about it this way. Wall Street I Think we could all agree is a grouping of some of the greediest people on this planet I Think they would put greed above everything else in their book as in they want to make money.

So if it was really that great, if it was so underpresented, if everything was going the right way, when we're trading at eight dollars and it could go up to whatever like, there's more money to the upside than there is to the downside: So if Wall Street like was really that like greedy and like they're not I don't think that they hate retail Traders More than they are greedy, you know what I mean as in they they care about making money before anything So if this was really that great and just like we're all missing out on it, you think Wall Street would be in this right now saying hey dude I want to buy it because it's like all they want is money and they want more of money. So if it was really that great, like why don't we see bigger Wall Street Players getting involved To the upside Because remember, there's more money to be made to the upside than there is to the downside, especially at these, uh, very very low levels. And then the same could be said about the AMC leadership team. They're also greedy suits.

Obviously, they're greedy suits so they want to make money too. So if they want to make money and they really believed in AMC why wouldn't they be buying more AMC The only people the only group of people left that I see absurdly bullish on AMC are the people in Twitter Space calls and the people on Reddit I Don't see the AMC leadership team I Don't see anyone on Wall Street And it's weird because the AMC leadership team are the people who are actively in the know and they're dealing with the company and the numbers day in and day out. So I find a suspect that they're not buying it. if they do anything, they're ending up selling stock and then Wall Street who arguably has better data sets, are more informed about the market.

Uh, it just has better connections because like that's their job, this is the world they run in. There's more money to make be made to the upside than there is to the downside. So it has to strike you as a question of, well, why aren't they loading up on it If all these other people on Twitter Space calls and Reddit are right with their thesis that this is severely fundamentally undervalued, just doesn't it doesn't add up. Uh, I bet AAA Set in a meeting one time.

Oh yeah. retail? Uh, let's just maybe. maybe maybe, maybe, um, but whatever. I know a lot of you are so sick and tired of it and you have better things to talk about so we don't have to waste our time like getting into that anymore.

But I just wanted to answer the question that was asked. Uh, so on that particular note, let's get rocking a little bit. Let's get rocking. Five things to know this morning.

Well, we'll come back to that. Dow Futures dropped more than 200 points as interest rates climb to multi-year highs. So here's a look at the market right now not looking the best. so obviously I called out in the newsletter.

Folks, If you're not signed up for the newsletter, sign up. Sign up. Sign up. Actually I'll give you the link right now it is Free I'm in no way asking you for money on this if you want the premium.

where I like do some of these other like trade concepts for zero Dtes, you could do that. I mean I'm giving you the code right now for a free month. it's goonie and I honestly think that like one of these trades per month will. it's only 10 bucks.

But anyway in the newsletter I was explaining and I also did the Sunday video breakdown of how hey I'm looking either for the breakout and hold above this trend line or the breakdown and hold below this trend line. So on Tuesday September 19th we push below it. but then it fought all the way back up. Wanted to stay in this consolidation region and then all of a sudden okay, we were dancing around yesterday.

The Fomc result comes out. the SCP comes out the summary of economic projections and then on top of that, we just started to get crushed after Jerome Powell So clearly we broke below and we closed below. And look at this, we ended up closing at 438.64. we're now trading at 434.89 almost four dollars below as soon as it got below.

like even on the close here right at the end of the day. maybe potentially the started today I Mean clearly the Bears are in control. The next stop in my mind may be short-term Target Well, we're actually kind of at it. We're opening up at this low.

but really? and I've discussed this before, it's 4 33. that's what I'm watching below 4433 which it totally could go there. It could get real, real, questionable, Real suspect, Real. Curious So this is what I'm looking at in the overall: Market How does it react to where we're going to open up? Obviously, there is the upside Gap fill to 438.43 the low from yesterday.

So yes, there is an upside Gap So the target will it get filled today? The odds are relatively high, but also that's not a guarantee because if anything, it looks like there's a bit more panic in the markup this morning because of how bad yesterday truly was. In terms of the cues on a relative basis to the S P 500, this was already weaker because we've actually we opened up below this. bottom side trend line here. let me shape this up a bit.

Uh, so on Monday we opened it below, fought above and then on Tuesday it tried to get hit. They push it up but could not recapture the trend line. They opened it up right here Wednesday and then just got absolutely smashed. So my level on the queues would be three, five, eight, Fifty eight.

That's the low from Friday August 25th and then past that 35471 below this. that's where the doors to Valhalla like really, really open up. So this is where we're looking in the overall market. And the NASDAQ I Bring up the NASDAQ just because I Know a lot of you, including myself, are very, very interested in it.

but clearly the Bears are in control at least on this time frame. So if they're in control in the daily time frame, does that mean every single minute, five minute, ten minute, 15 minute bar of the day is going to be read: no, we all we know there's upside Gap bills for example. I pointed out this biops like Apple we know on the accusers and upside gaffold to 364. What is this? uh, four, six.

So we're trading at 360. so that's four and a half dollars. To the upside, yeah, it might choose to clean up that untested area before there's an additional capitulation. There might not be an additional capitulation at all.

We're just playing the game of odds right now and I'm particularly just trying to play the high odds play. So right now, the stock futures fall for third day as fed signals that will keep rates higher for longer. You bet your bottom dollar. But before we get into this, I Just saw an interesting update.

Uh, I Don't know how many of you have been tracking what's going on with India and Canada which two countries that basically never like are seemingly making the news together. but India suspends visas services in Canada as diplomatic crisis escalates. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Said his country is investigating credible allegations, the Indian government orchestrated the extrajudicial slang of a Sikh separatists in Canada New Delhi rejected these allegations as baseless and absurd and accused Ottawa of being sympathetic of anti-indian causes. BLS International A third party service provider acting on behalf of the Indian government said Visa Services have been suspended in its Canadian offices with immediate effect.

Just thought it was strange, a story that came out of nowhere I mean a lot of the times when we're hearing about these potentially politically motivated slayings and has a lot to do with like North Korea with China With Russia With the Middle East you're never really hearing India necessarily being accused of it, especially when it's going down in Canada So I just thought it was a little strange, jumped out to me and wanted to share with you. Maybe you guys are a little bit more informed on the situation than I am. Uh, but I don't know I just thought it was a little bit of a wild story so just wanted to share that fed declines to hike, but points to rates staying higher for longer. So this was the big update from yesterday.

The results came out at 2 p.m no rate increase, no rate decrease. We're keeping it consistent at 5.25 but it does look as if in the November meeting, we are going to go up another 25 bips. I Say that a little bit hesitantly, because between now and then we're going to get more CPI reports more Pce reports, more retail sales reports, more unemployment reports, and more just degenerate trading in a general sense. So I think that there's a lot that can happen between now and then that could influence what's going on in bonds and yields and basically the statistical chance of another rate hike.

So right now I think most people no that I can't even say that I Personally believe we're going to get another rate hike, but there are a lot of voices out there who say we are completely done I don't necessarily buy it, but also I'm not feeling like the most confident in that like I I Don't think this is like a high confidence call out I'm just saying there's like a pretty like I would say it's argument 50 50 right now if we're getting one more rate hike, especially after the SCP results, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady while also indicating it still expects one more hike before the end of the year and fewer Cuts than previously indicated next year. Along with the rate projections, the FED also sharply revised its economic growth expectation for the year with grossomatic process excuse me, gross domestic product GDP now expected to rise 2.1 percent. In addition to holding rates at relatively high levels, the FED is continuing to reduce its Bond Holdings a process that has the central bank balance sheet by some 815 billion since June of 2022, This is known as quantitative tightening, so we have quantitative easing. That's what caused the market to rip.

Sky High When we were all locked inside and no one was doing anything. and now that the world's reopening, the Market's going down. which seems a little bit strange, but it's basically the whole concept of don't fight the Fed fed signals higher for longer rates with hikes almost finished with soft Landing to something different. Would you call the soft Landing now a Baseline expectation? No, No.

I would not do that. I I would just say what would I say about that um I've always thought that the soft Landing was was a plausible outcome that there was a path really to to a soft Landing I Thought that and I've said that since we left it off. It's also possible that the path is narrowed and it's widened apparently. Uh, ultimately.

um, today. But I do think it's I Do think it's possible. Uh, and you know I Also think um, you know this is why we're in a position to to move carefully again. Uh, that we we will restore price stability.

We We know that we have to do that and we know the public depends on us doing that. And we know that we have to do it so that we can achieve the kind of labor market that we all want to achieve. which is a an extended period, sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. We know that the fact that we've come this far, uh, lets us really, uh, proceed carefully is as I keep saying so I think um, you know that's that's the end we're trying to achieve.

um I Wouldn't want to handicap the likelihood of it though, it's not up to me. So classic Jerome Powell Who arguably over the years has gotten better at handling these questions and speaking. but being better means he's less transparent like he now has the whole political talk like pretty much nailed down and the whole thing of like Hey we're gonna move carefully. we're gonna be data dependent and as new data comes in, we'll make the decisions of the best of our ability.

But um, pal at various points yesterday was basically saying after calls after puts I'm screwing over everyone but then the people who did generally held onto puts it really paid off for them Boe Rate hike on knife edge after inflation fall. So the Bank of England that's the way we have our fed our Central Bank that's what theirs is called the Bank of England the Boe Traders anticipate one more rate hike but doubt a move. Thursday recent data suggests outlook for the Uak economy is dimming rapidly. All of us brother, this is the world right now I Think things are still going to get worse before they get better I Know there's a lot of uh, optimistic call outs out there I Know there's also a lot of pessimistic uh I'm of the case of the next.

Whatever let's say here: I'm looking for things to be negative, but not horrifically negative. So I just want to share that I'm not looking for some sort of like massive depression or something like that I think there's a good shot. Economically, we go into a recession I Hope it's a shallow recession that doesn't really impact most people, but we are definitely not in the age of just everything going. Rip City All of the time is this going to play.

Do they have the caveat that they need to pause? Or would it be a mistake? Once again, this is from the Bank. Well, you know, the Bank of England is a very uh, academic institution and it has problems. Very, very public and very, very significant internal disagreements. and I think that's what we're going to get tomorrow.

We're going to get a very, very split decision. and I think it is now very, very finely poised as to whether they vote for hopefully one last hike uh, or whether they, uh, decide to stand past it's It's not just the inflation data, it's a lot of the detail. UK Inflation actually overstates what's happening with inflation in the UK food price inflation is actually lower than is being reported because supermarkets have this very weird dual pricing strategy. Um, there's There's lots and lots of complicated factors here.

Um, so overall I if I was allowed a vote on the on the NPC I would probably vote for for no rate hike I Suspect bank is probably just going to tip over into a rate hike at the decision tomorrow. but as I said, it's a very, very finely poised decision and the bank loves to have internal disagreement. So a little bit of an update there that came out obviously while we were all fast asleep I would assume uh, but just want to know in terms of other macroeconomic developments. we do have some things going down.

So right when we started this initial Jobless Games came in a little bit less than expected, expecting 225, came in at 201. Now this is interesting: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index came in way short of expectations. They were expecting a drop of 0.7 coming in at a drop of 13.5 and then I need you to know that in about an hour 10 a.m we're going to get an existing home sales and then tomorrow Friday September 22nd 15 minutes into the training day, we are going to get the PMI numbers. Very quick update for you.

not necessarily I would say this is a good economic update but more so impacting the automaker industry. GM And Stalantis just laid off more than 2 000 additional workers because of the UAW strike. This strike is good in a while. GM Said it idled an assembly plant in Kansas because of a shortage of Parts due to the strike, about two a thousand of its workers were laid off.

Wednesday Silentis also laid off about 370 workers at three part factories that Supply its Jeep plant in Toledo where the UAW went on strike last week. GM said because of the strike the workers laid off on Wednesday will not be eligible for supplemental unemployment benefits. It normally pays so the strike getting heated to say the least. UAW Negotiators says new Stalantis offer doesn't look good so it doesn't sound like they're close.

Like obviously when we're tracking what's going on with these Union Disputes these strikes, these walkouts. sometimes we get an idea of like okay, are they close to figuring it out, are they not close and the whole automaker thing with UAW does not seem like they're close. But on a positive note, excuse me. Hollywood Studio Writers near agreement to end strike hope to finalize the deal today Thursday Writers and producers are near an agreement to end the writer's Guild of America strike After meeting face to face on Wednesday the two sides met and hoped to finalize the deal today.

Thursday While optimistic, the people noted, however, that if the deal is not reached, that strike could last through the end of the year. On Wednesday evening, the Wga and the alliance of Motion Pictures and television producers released a joint statement that the two groups met for bargaining and would meet again today. Thursday So good news there. But don't forget this is only half of the whole movie show thing because there's also an actor strike going on.

So there's a writer strike actor strike. The writer story started first and it looks like it will maybe end first and then I'm just hoping fingers crossed that this means that the acting strike is also going to be coming to an end. hopefully soon. So a little bit of some positive news there, obviously.

I Just want it to be kind of a win for everyone involved. Obviously, these companies that I know a lot of you are invested in, we want it to be when they're but arguably I would say more important on the human level is maybe just the writers and actors being treated with like some semblance of reasonable business. I Mean, looking into it is it is kind of crazy to see that. Uh, and to my understanding, a lot of this comes down to the royalties paid from streaming versus what it was on.

Like syndicated like television, they're very, very different and obviously the world is going in the way of streaming. And then on top of that, a lot to do with like what you can do with likeness when it comes to AI obviously now and absolutely booming technology industry. So uh, I think it's just time I think a lot of the deals and agreements were made in just a different technological age. So to me, for everyone involved, it makes sense for these things to get updated.

I Would definitely say that don't forget this is the newsletter Mattress.locals.com On top of this, I do Post other things, some active trade ideas. so if you're interested in that, use the code Goonie, G-o-n-i-e you'll get a free month. Um, very shortly here. I'm hoping next week maybe the week after we will be releasing the beta version of the Discord.

So I'm going to ask a couple of you to come in and test it out. Obviously you'll get in at a cheaper price because it's going to be the beta version and then ideally in. October we will be opening up the Discord to anyone who wants. Obviously, it's going to be the quote unquote normal Discord where whatever you guys can hang out in there all day I'll come in.

obviously. After the show, we can chat, we can share ideas we can learn off of each other. But really what I want to do on top of all of that is integrate some actual training robots and signals that ping a certain channel to let you know. overbought, oversold.

Major. Crossings Just things like that, because I think the real way to succeed in the market is to have an actual statistical Edge So that's what I want to do with some of of my trading Quant buddies. But anyway, Uh, for free, you can get the newsletter and you can get this right now. It comes out every week.

I give a breakdown of the previous week What? I'm looking towards the next week. all the major macroeconomic events, all the earnings I think you'll care about and the seasonality. Speaking of which, the seasonality for today is bearish. The Bulls have only won this day over the past 25 years.

38 of the time the profit factor is 0.4 as in every dollar spent in the Bullish, Direction has only returned up 40 cents. Obviously the Bears are crushing today. This is the equity curve of buying it open, selling it closed in the S P 500 futures Market on this individual day, clearly favoring the Bears and then, uh, tomorrow is also bearish. So today tomorrow, clearly clearly clearly favoring the Bears.

Last week, the option strategy went six out of eight this week. it's already three out of three. And then the charts of interest. uh, this was posted on Sunday.

So I was like just kind of commentating of the breakout and rip or the breakdown and sell-off. I was noticing how the queues were a bit weaker. I was noticing how Microsoft was weak I was saying how Nvidia is coming close to a breakdown level and I was looking for the breakout and hold of Carvana around the 56 level. All right, what do we have here? What do we have here? Five things to know before that: stock market bill goes dingy ding ding ding today Thursday at least according to mainstream Financial media Market Movers things are getting crushed Fred's projections rates higher for longer trading.

What is this one? Trading apps Apple Wants to capitalize on the buzz when consumers were flocking to trading apps like Robinhood In 2020, it was working with Goldman Sachs on an investing feature that would lick consumers, buy and sell stocks plan to launch in 2022. They abandoned the effort when the markets turned downward as interest rates. Rose People familiar with the discussion said Apple was worried is that it would face backlash if people lost money in the stock market while using an Apple product and put the project on pause. Interesting, just like the association with it IP does so we know arm came out, we know, instacart came out instacart not holding its gains.

and then this next one's Clavio which I heard a little bit about, but it was definitely a muted kind of boring. IPO So that was the third one, but obviously the IPO the public debut of new companies hitting the public markets. definitely. uh, starting to heat up to say the least.

the next one. I think is Birkenstock And in sight we talked about the strike. the writing strike potentially coming to an end which I I would I would love for that to actually go the way we need it to go. Uh, what do we have here? Uh, you guys want to pull on the day? Well here I'll bring up the charts so you can see what's going on.

Let me zoom out to show you how much things are getting demolished I do want to bring to your attention Actually, since we talked about those Nvidia clearly breaking down, evidently breaking down, setting up potential tests of 400 366 and maybe even deeper how the capital of 306 so that's on Nvidia The other one was Microsoft Both of these call outs, the technical breakdowns have been crushing it thus far. so if you took them, congratulations to you personally I didn't take them I Haven't been trading options lately just because I've been so hell-bent on trying to pass that TOP Step prop account. But now that I did I think I might be getting a little bit back into the world of some degenerate options trading who knows? we'll see could be a fun thing to do in the month of October Could you please check sup support resistance for crude oil? Uh, oil's been ripping holding 90. they try to knock it back down but now already bouncing back up I Already have the next test level we've been talking about the mid 93s.

Um, obviously, if you're looking for support, you could always just be marking out whatever the recent lows are. So for example, evidence support at 77. You could argue you have support in the mid 80s You Could argue that maybe even this low if it holds today. If we continue to put tomorrow, you could argue that 88 is the support.

But really, I've been on bullet. I've been a bullish on oil ever since last summer. Like almost a year and some change now. But I'm basically looking for the breakout and hold above 93.

I'm not playing crude oil directly personally. I'm invested in Oxy which my investment is around 67, so I'm actually still technically a little bit underwater on it. But I'm hoping that with all the noise around Warren Buffett and his large Oxy investment on top of crude oil continuing to go up, I'm hoping that Oxy can one of these days return all the way up to 76 78. Somewhere in here is where I'm looking for Oxy.

But yeah, Crude Oil Very, very bullish. just from a price action standpoint. at least in the way. I look at Price action.

Maybe maybe you look at it completely differently. That's fair, but it's just how I see it is bitboy trending again. uh, looks like it there. This is where scammers shine.

Ask for donations. This is not a good way to redeem yourself when you hold more than 650 000 with us. Our team confirmed that his account is still active under his total control. Wait, what does anyone? Is this true? Does he actually have 650k so he's been raising? I think in the realm of a hundred thousand dollars, this bit boy is a fraud.

Is this true? Holy to if you really 650k Did I Just want to make sure it actually happened I Don't want to be spreading any false information. Oh hey, a little baby elephant. oh little guy. I Just feel like baby elephants like they just seem like cool things you know? Whoa.

This is basically how big Piper is on her current growth rate. This is how she's gonna be in like two weeks. foreign September I Just want to know Did CZ actually CZ Finance Did he actually tweet this out? Did he did he? uh I mean it's just so easy to edit CSS and say that people said stuff without them like actually saying anything. Uh, let's try to do a little bit of a fact check here.

I am not net I Don't see it from CZ at all. Um, so maybe he did say it. but I'm not I'm not seeing it. So the class.

It could just be another classic example of the internet being the internet and kind of latching on to something that's not necessary. Also, it sounds super illegal for the CEO of a company to tweet out the information related to an individual account that sounds like just on the yeah. On this surface level, that sounds incredibly illegal. You can't tweet out the size of someone's account when you're running that.

Imagine if brokerages did that. Imagine if Robin Hood was like tweeting out the size of like roaring kitties like Gme position. uh I It sounds a little suspect to me. Why is Bbbyq First of all, just so you guys know if Q is in it, that is gonna probably mean that it's in bankruptcy.

Like so Bed Bath and Beyond when it went into bankruptcy, they had to add the queue. Uh, generally not a good time to be screwing around with stocks because they already declared bankruptcy like we've seen it before. It just it doesn't end well. so please be careful with it if you're messing around with bankrupt stocks.

Uh, hang on where we I want to see Squawk Box anything there? Oh, a shutdown. I'm increasingly concerned that the odds are high in getting higher. I'm increasingly concerned that they're high in getting higher. Uh, here in the Senate we've been doing, that's not good.

The Appropriations Committee on which I serve has passed all of our bills with big bipartisan margins, and we're ready to move forward with passing them and sitting down with the house to begin hammering out the spending bills for this coming year. But the house hasn't produced anything, and frankly, the house Republican majority has tried everything but working with Democrats in the house. I'm concerned that Speaker McCarthy's challenges with the more extreme end of his caucus are only getting sharper as the time is getting shorter. and Becky a government shutdown doesn't just hurt millions of Americans who rely on different government services, it hurts our reputation around the world.

It reinforces XI Jinping's argument that the American political system is incapable of meeting. This Moment On The World Stage too. What's the solution I Mean if if the idea that the short-term plan that the Gop's put forth at this point, um, if that's kind of Dead on Arrival in the Senate What? What is the answer? The answer is for Speaker McCarthy To keep his word, to be blunt, months ago, the leaders in the house and the Senate and the police about spending levels for the next two years. this was the debt ceiling deal and then Speaker McCarthy promptly walked away from it and the house appropriators have been marking their bills to 20 or 30 percent below the levels that we agreed on.

I Understand that he has a very difficult caucus I Understand that he has folks gunning to take him out of the Speaker's chair. But frankly, Speaker Pelosi when she was speaker, also had a very narrow margin and yet managed to Corral a very wide caucus that had a lot of internal disagreements. This is a challenge of leadership and I think Speaker McCarthy needs to come forward with a proposal that actually has some chance of being resolved with what we're doing here in the Senate This is a moment for leadership between the heads of all four carcasses. The consequences for the average: American In terms of the impact on our economy, our daily lives and our strength on the world stage are too great.

And I think there are too many who are cheering on the idea of a shutdown. In talking with a Republican friend of mine, a long-serving Conservative Republican Senator here, he said part of the problem Chris is that all the folks who paid the political price for the last shutdown have left retired, moved on to other things. And so this small group that's holding Speaker McCarthy hostage doesn't have that experience to guide them. well.

Leave it to our government to be incredibly inept. I Don't think any of you are necessarily surprised. Um. I Don't think any of us are surprised in the slightest.

Ooh, that reminds me. That reminds me. That reminds me. How do I want to put this? How? What is the best way for you guys to really digest what I'm about to get into? Let me make sure I'm on the right thing.

I Want to set this up because this is part of the reason why I Started early was to share this story. Um, look, if you've listened to me at all, there's a really, really good chance that you know I'm particularly not a fan of politicians whether they're actively in office or really even out of office. Trading It is crazy to me my own personal opinion that this can happen because they may have access to non-public information. It's gotten to the point that it's it's a meme of just how good politicians are at trading.

And I know sometimes it can get frustrating to think about what they're doing while a lot of the average people like you and me are feeling a bit of the pinch. and it's on that exact point that I finally have what I think many of us would consider to be a positive update just in former: U.S Congerman Stephen Beyer Sentenced to 1.8 years in prison for insider trading. Finally, finally, finally, finally something has happened that probably should have been happening a while ago now. obviously I'm no lawyer I don't speak legalese I'm not sitting here saying every single politician is a political Insider Trader but clearly some of them are and that's the name of one right here.

Stephen Buyer Former: Congressman Sentenced to nearly two years in prison for insider trading Stephen Beyer A republican who represented in India District Stephen Byer Republican who represented an Indiana District was convicted in March of insider trading related to his Consulting work. A former Republican lawmaker who served in Congress for nearly two decades was sentenced Tuesday to almost two years in prison over insider trading charges. Former representative Stephen Beer was sentenced to 22 months in prison stemming from four counts of Securities fraud related to a pair of insiders trading schemes into 2018 and 2019. Buyer who is 64 was elected to Congress in 1993.

He left in 2011 to work as a consultant to private companies. We've discussed this before, but the revolving door of like federal government work to the private sector back and forth seemingly happening all the time. U.S Attorney Damian Williams said that buyer abused positions of trust for illicit personal gain and today he faced Justice For Those acts Buyer misappropriated material non-public information that he learned as a consultant and use that information to quote unquote Place timely, profitable security trades and brokerage accounts in his own name and in the names of others. Prosecutors said that buyer bought shares of Sprint stock ahead of a 26.5 billion dollar merger announcement with T-Mobile in 2018.

in a separate scheme in 2019, they alleged that he also traded shares of Navigant Consulting before it was acquired by Guide House, a Consulting and advisory firm. Buyer made more than 126 000 from buying and later selling Sprint stock and made more than 223 000 from the Navigant trades. You know it's not often that we get to do it, but I think we should give a little bit of a round of applause to our regulators and our Watchdogs that finally something was done here. Now with that being said, would I argue that this is a progressive step in the right direction 100 percent.

And because of that I want to call out a couple of things that maybe we should be paying attention to in this short term. Number one: Justin U.S Senator: Bob Menendez Accepted bribes in gold bars worth up to 400 000 in exchange for help with a Criminal Case according to Federal prosecutors. So this is their claim. What will come of it I Don't know but a story.

I'm definitely paying attention to 400k in gold bars. Absolutely ridiculous. and that's not the only one that is currently. We'll say peaking my own interest this is Dan Sullivan Mr Sullivan is a U.S senator for Alaska So that probably means that not many of us really know him unless you're from Alaska and then this is your guy.

The reason I'm bringing up Mr Sullivan is because of his most recently reported traits periodic transaction report and this was posted on September 18th and it's basically a lot of Trades that he ended up making in late August of 2023. I'll post this in a link below if you want to see it. but as you can see, Selling Selling Selling Selling Selling More Selling More Selling More Selling More Selling More Selling More Selling More selling. If you add this all up, it almost adds up to a million dollars of selling.

Now if you take a deep dive into his recent activity, this is abnormal. This is clearly act normal for him to hit the rip cord on everything. and I think it's fair for you to then ask, why is he possibly doing it I I Think it's a very fair question now. obviously all these transaction dates this is when it actually happened.

In the future, we'll be able to know if this was a pretty timely shrew trade or maybe it was like I don't know what it is, but it definitely at a minimum is curious to me Now Obviously this is frustrating for a lot of us. This is beyond frustrating for most of us to know that our elected officials who might have access to non-public information can freely trade in the market. I Know there's a lot of people like you and me who think that this shouldn't be able to happen. And yes, I will campaign for this end because to me in my eyes, it's an absolutely ridiculous process.

Now, if you want to track what our politicians are buying and selling, there's many websites that do that, but my particular favorite one is Street. So Street Feet is a robo advisor and it has various AI trading co-pilots for those of you who are curious. Yes, you can buy and sell stock and they don't accept payment for order flow. But what I want to bring your attention to is specifically one of their co-pilots and the name of it is U.S Congress Eyes Now obviously they have other ones they have.

generative. AI Congress Buys House buys top government contracts Bond Letter Growth bonds. There's various ones that they have, but my personal favorite is right here: U.S Congress Buys This portfolio tracks the performance of stocks that have been purchased by members of U.S Congress or their family. This portfolio is weighted based on reported size of the purchases with daily rebalancing.

So what does that mean? It basically means whatever in aggregate our politicians are buying, you could be buying and whatever they're selling, you could be selling. So it's kind of I guess of the Mantra of the moment, if you can't beat them, join them. And while we're all patiently waiting around for regulations to get to a level that I would truly believe most of us would be happy with, to the point that they can't actively be trading in the market while they hold a position while we're waiting for that to happen at least maybe in a general sense, the general populace can be some Watchdogs tracking what our elected officials are doing. Because if you have, ask me.

as I've said many, many times before and I will continue to shout from the rooftops, it is truly ridiculous. So if you want to check it out, and if you want to trade alongside our elected officials, you could buy what they're buying. You could sell what they're selling. Make sure you check out Street Beep Dan Sullivan Here let's go over this actually: I Want to go over this? We didn't really do it.

The ones that I wanted to point out right is my head blocking this? Check this out. Google Potentially selling up to 50 000 Worth 50 000 that was on 822 Getting rid of that. The other big one right here was Apple Huge one. So between Google and Apple alone we're talking about 100K Another one on the bottom is Accenture this is the Consulting.

so Accenture Google Apple potentially up to 150 000. All these other ones the potential max value is 15. this one Microsoft the low end was 50. potentially up to 100K.

So really, just between Microsoft Google and Apple, we're talking potentially 200k of just ripping. Um TJX I think that's TJ Maxx 50K So those are the big ones and then I mean I'm I'm not saying these 15K ones are small at all, but like these are well known. like he's getting out of Microsoft getting out of lamb research, getting out of JP Morgan getting out of Johnson and Johnson he's getting out of a lot of major names now. Maybe maybe maybe maybe maybe maybe Mr Sullivan Maybe there's something going on.

There could be maybe in his life he's like yo I need money I'm doing this. Maybe he's starting a business I Don't know what he's doing, but it is a little bit we'll say I don't want to say it's suspect just in case. Mr Sullivan's listening right now and he wants to sue me. The Kingdom come but so we'll use the word curious.

Why? Why? Why? Why in late August when we're heading into some we'll say rocky, um some choppy Waters ahead. Why is he pulling the rip cord on all of this? Why is Menendez allegedly Federal Prosecutors are claiming taking a four hundred thousand dollar bribe in the form of gold and obviously we talked about Stephen Beyer who was a politician for two decades apparently was using the time to hone his craft and then he went into consulting which what if you do the quick math made him about 350k. He was trading in his own account, trading in other people's accounts. It it blows my mind that this is just continually going going on and on and on.

And I think the thing that I find to be the most frustrating about it is the way it gets resolved is from politicians. they need to not only write and craft, but actually Place into law better rules and regulations for elected officials to trade. So we're in this like kind of upside down world where the people that we want to stop doing something, they need to make the rules for themselves. We're basically just asking them to self-regulate and I don't know if you guys have ever cracked open a history book.

but I Don't think it really has the best track record of showing how politicians are moral people. I Don't think it really represents that. So then we're We're literally asking the people who are benefiting from a certain practice to create rules from themselves to no longer do that practice. Like does no one see that? That's just crazy and like maybe that shouldn't be happening I I don't know I I just I don't get it I don't get it I don't get it I don't get it, Uh, whatsoever.

And then I feel like it is the easy political win for people to present bills to ideally become a law to stop this trading. But once again, I don't even. It's one of two things. Either they're not that informed about the stock market or they're literally just doing it to like, win votes and be like look, I'm fighting for the average guy um, by saying hey, they can't trade stocks.

But we also know from various reports at the end of the year that politicians are now training hundreds of millions of dollars in total of options. So I feel like they're creating a situation where they're like, look it I presented a bill for them to not trade stock anymore. You should vote for me because I'm a great guy and I did this for all of you. And in reality, if that were to pass, there's a a loophole the size of the Grand Canyon They're like, okay, cool.

We'll just go trade Futures options and crypto instead if we're not allowed to trade equities. I mean what was it the one? My favorite political traitor? um I I Don't know if I could necessarily say Insider that might be crossing the line. My favorite borderline suspicious political Trader is coach Tommy Tuberville. The dude's on the Agriculture committee and he actively trades corn futures like I didn't read the full title.

it says honorable. Yeah, it's my bad. Uh, it's just just honorable. He's The Honorable one that.

that's how this all goes. It's just so ridiculous. All right. Anyway, Anyway, the market is about to open.

The market is about to open. What are you guys feeling on the day? Are you guys feeling bullish? Are you feeling embarrassed? How are you feeling? How are you feeling? Boom Brother! I'm gonna go for a quick pop. To the upside: let's start off the day. well actually if I'm in at 15.

No. I wanted Closer Closer Nope. I didn't want that. Uh oh well.

now the trades. I'm getting a lot of alerts popping off and whatnot. Um I don't know if this trade updated I think sometimes when I place trades right when the Market's gonna get going I think the system can get like crazy slow I Don't know if I'm gonna get my fill or not. How do I know? why did the order just disappear? I've been streaming this the whole time you guys saw I had an order I moved it down for a closer Target and then it was like, well now it pops up.

seriously. whatever I Just want a nice little win out of the gate. Just something to feel good about. Come on, just give me my money.

There we go. We're starting off the day nice and slow. A nice little 50 win. Just something to you know, we're getting our toes wet just getting our toes a little bit wet to see what kind of day it's gonna be.

The only reason I picked bullish was because I saw one person say that they're bullish and I was like Hey that seems like a trustworthy fella. It seemed like if someone's coming into my chat saying that they're feeling bullish I know they're not bamboozling me I know they're coming in and they really mean that like deep in their loins. So if they're feeling that confident, if any of you come in and you're arbitrarily saying bullish or bearish I know you've done hours and hours and hours of research on said topic. So I mean uh, who am I to get in the way and say that all of your many hours, days, potentially weeks of research? Well, they've already sold 127 000 shares of rum left.

Really? no wishes to try to sync it? Well, where's rum at? It's at 5 40. Um, obviously there's some serious selling going on. I'm personally just waiting for that to end and then I'm hoping for the reversion back. So I'm and it's tough I Mean it's definitely tough because like you never are like a hundred percent Sure, it's always easier with hindsight bias, but uh, I'm I'm waiting for some signs that just maybe, just just maybe that the selling is concluded.

Oh, by the way, the casino is open. Best of luck to all. Play responsibly. If not, have fun.

Now please if you're coming in right now. First of all, you are very late to class. This will be reflected in your end of semester demerit count, but there is an upside gaffle on the Spy to 438.43 the low from yesterday currently trading at 435.73 and on the Qs there is an upside Gap fill to 464.46 currently trading at 461.23 21. the seasonality of today clearly does favor the Bears Um, but does that is that a guarantee that today's going to be bearish? No, there's no such thing as a guarantee.

Like we're all just trying to be reactive here to try to be predictive about any of this stuff. Um, it's It's a tough call. It's a tough call I think the best thing you can do is like hey, I think this is an interesting setup and I'm going to take a stab at it and then all you have to do is really keep your risk in control and hope you're more right than you're not. at least in terms of the magnitude of your place.

All right, where are we at? Let's try it again. Uh, where we going here. Order filled Target filled. well that was quick.

That was a quick 120. uh I didn't really mean to do it like that I Didn't move my target so made a quick. This is the prop account when you're seeing my ninja. Trader that's the prop account when you're seeing my uh trade station.

that's my actual account. So up 54 on my own account, up 120 on the prop account order submitted. wait I didn't want that. Hang on just doing some open volatility trades here.

People actually getting scared or is it going to bounce back? Are they actually getting scared people in scaredy cat mode? The Spy broke its low, but the tech sector trying to hold on. What do we have going on with the dollar right now? The Dollar's strong. Ooh are the queues gonna come right back up? Feels like, um, feels like there might be some blood in the water here. feels like there might be some blood in the water.

Patience. Patience. Two little scallops out of the gate just to see. Just just have some fun.

PMI 945 is that today? I Think that's tomorrow? Miguel I think PMI is uh tomorrow. Oh the cues are popping. so is the Spy gonna pop right here? The queues are making a fight back right here. not so much the Spy So this particular Sector Xlk doing a little bit better than the overall.

Market how is XLE coming out of the gate? not the best XLF Also not the best. so financials are suffering. Um okay, is it gonna get smacked right here? Order filled. Come on, just need that quick push.

Oh Target there we go. All right. 240 on the day, so 240 on this account and then uh, 50 on that account. So I'm up 300 out of the gate for some quick little scalps I feel like I could just wait? Now you know I feel like bada bing bada boom type of a situation.

Like why? why prep like easy easy lemon squeezies? Um you know what I could do actually is on this account on this account. Let's see. just trying to make some big brain moves here. Ah, we didn't really.

Oh I got lucky on that one. That was a clear over extension to the upside. I Kind of want to take a little bit more of a swing trade so obviously those have all been scalps but I'll see if I could catch a nice trend for the day. So maybe what I need to do there? uh uh maybe what I need to do there is wait.

what time is it 9 37 Okay Let's uh, are we coming back down? Did I just take a stab at it? Do I Do It Do I Do It Do I Do It Do I Do It Do It All right? So this one not really scalp? Um I'm just gonna risk this recent High Actually, I should probably at this point. What is it? It's 9 37. Okay, throwing my risk at the So: I just went short. basically half of a mini I went short five micros.

So instead of every movement being uh, every Point movement being fifty dollars for me, it's half. So right now it'll be twenty five dollars. So I'm risking the intraday high and basically this isn't really my price. my target I Want to see if I could ride it out throughout the day? Um, we'll see.

we'll see. it might be a little bit too early. I might be a little bit early here. Um, but between locking in fifty dollars on this and already locking in 240 on that, my current risk is below what I've already made on the day.

So I'm kind of playing with The house's money. Um, so we'll see, We'll see, we'll see my thesis. Basically I'm just seeing this huge downtrend. I see that the market tried to pop up and it got perfectly rejected at whatever EMA this is and I'm really now looking for the breakdown of this recent