Foreign. We gotta move Foreign. Thank you oh brother oh brother oh brother. What a fun week to be a streamer talking about all the trending news, talking about the markets, talking about just all the craziness that we now call life.

Apparently apparently Trump's going to be indicted today. uh, what are your thoughts on that I myself happen to be in Manhattan and I thought it might be cool to talk my cameraman into after this stream if you happen to be watching it live, going on to the streets of Manhattan and checking out what's going on. So if you see me around today and if you want to say hi if you want to do an interview or something, uh let me know. but I will be in the the Big Apple just seeing what's going on.

kind of like uh um, a man on the street type of a thing. Just to see how this has all gone, he's getting arrested for what So once again I Want to be very clear with this. Apparently he's going to be indicted today. kind of like officially charged and it is.

I'll show you all the details, but it relates to kind of the payment to the adult actress Stormy Daniels like kind of the hush money payment type of a thing that involves his lawyer Michael Cohen and all that good jazz. But the payment to the best of my research, to the best of my knowledge, around 130 000 and that payment that was kind of brokered through his lawyer uh, I guess is coming back to bite him in the ass. To know this story, you need to know the three players former president Trump You need to know the lawyer Michael Cohen and then you need to know the adult actress Stormy Daniels Um, it was all just to make some of their relations not public information. but obviously the fact that we're here and we're talking about it tells us that the hush money did not do the best job of hushing.

Now this is all ledged right now and we're going to be getting into the details of it. uh, among many other things, it looks like banks are popping back and I think we might have just got like lucky with the inverse Kramer here so that's going to be pretty cool I Want to talk about thanks I Want to talk about the overall Market Things are looking pretty green this morning now I Wouldn't be betting the farm on like okay, great like we're good to go because don't forget tomorrow's the big day in the markets. Tomorrow we get the results of the Fomc meeting at 2PM and then Jerome Powell will be speaking at 2 30. Yes, obviously I will be streaming the whole thing.

So we do some specialty streams tomorrow and actually we're going to be doing specialty streams on Thursday as well because the some important big wig at Tick Tock will be doing testimony in front of Congress about like security and all that stuff. So it'll be interesting to see if Tick Tock's officially going down. so just want to let you guys kind of know. Uh, today is going to be nuts because it's the day before the night before.

Basically Christmas Eve Volatility will be there just because of what's happening with banks, but also what's happening with Trump Tomorrow we're going to find out about interest rate hikes, which we'll have a massive impact on not only the economy, but obviously also the world of stonks. And then Thursday we have the Tick Tock testimony. and obviously at any point between now and the end of the week, you never know when just other crazy news is going to be breaking. Uh, so like I said, a fun week to be a goonie.

If you're watching this right now and you're like what in tarnation is this how hi howdy nice to meet you partner. my name is Matt We're The Goonies and we just kind of talk about what's going on in the world. We like to keep it a little bit more focused on trending news the economy Finance degenerate trading so if that sounds like your cup of tea or your shot of whiskey, well welcome to the party. Speaking of that, I need a little bit of espresso? Forgot to take my zinc today.

Foreign not a U.S citizen, but Trump for the win. Interesting: I should run that poll I should very much run that poll of for I Wonder what if you're outside of the U.S What your opinions of Trump are? That would be an interesting one because obviously you guys hear the news and you hear the craziness. I'm not blind to that fact. but I wonder like what news breaks through on an international level of like what are the headlines that permeate our borders here in the US and you guys hear about it? That'd be kind of interesting.

How was your interview yesterday? It was great. It's live. You can catch it on Yahoo's YouTube you can catch it on Yahoo's Twitter and you could also catch it on Myrumble slash YouTube um but the the thumbnail for it if you're looking for it is the Bulgarian boy crying. It's the Vlad 10 of one crying.

but that's the interview from Yahoo yesterday I said it went really well. Actually, if I was looking at the most recent Yahoo interviews, this is actually my like favorite one in a hot minute. Um, it's just nice to get some new styles of questions opposed to things related to meme socks all the time. So it was nice to kind of talk about like a larger economic like issue.

Uh, so I thought it was really fun I really enjoyed it I hope you guys enjoyed it as well, but it's up there you can find it on Rumble you can find it on YouTube if you want to check out the interview with Yahoo Finance yesterday. A lot about what's going on with the FED What's going on with regional banking? What's going on with a lot of Brokers Finally caving and letting people exercise their puts. even though they were up a lot of money, they weren't allowing people to exercise because the underlying wasn't training. so it was just a huge mess and it very much seemed like once again that Brokers were working at the behest of their clients the market makers opposed to their clients the Traders as in retail Traders We've seen this especially happen, but it's happened many times, but I would say it was greatly highlighted by games that GameStop ticker symbol Jimmy back in 2021 where they just stopped people from buying.

It seems like they stop people from getting blown up because they stopped it from being squeezed which a little bit later today we're going to be talking about the new squeeze that's being discussed on Wall Street bets and it relates to a precious metal AKA silver. so I want to give you all the details of that as of now I Own no silver but I just want to let you know what's going on there. Like I said, we're going to be talking about inverse Kramer crushing it. We're going to be talking about some recent crazy commentary from Yellen Uh, we're gonna if there's any like live updates I have the things set here, but as anything is coming to us related to the potential indictment of former president Trump I mean obviously we're going to be covering it live if you guys find any of the information.

if you see breaking news before, I do uh, make it well known in chat like, yell at me. Get it to one of the mods, get it to the producer like do something. but if you're seeing breaking news, that's what we're doing here. This morning, we're checking it out and after the morning stream I'm gonna go out on the streets of Manhattan around me just to see what's going on because you never ever know what type of content you're gonna find and what type of craziness might be in soon.

now before we get rocking with everything I Did start a little bit early today just because I wanted to go a little bit over the algorithmic training because I've been a little bit more vocal about it. Yes, if you want to do algorithmic trading, the easiest thing for you to do is to get into Streepy, but I want to show you some of my own strategies and how they've been doing with like my own actual money. Um, not as good as I'd like. but I want to go over all that.

hence why I started a little bit early today, but before we get into it I Know it's annoying to remind you, but if you haven't already unless you're like driving your kids to school or something I don't want you like obviously I know you're listening right now, but you shouldn't be looking at your phone. but if you're not in that category, hit that like button. But most importantly, don't forget to subscribe and pin to the top of chat. In the description of the video is the link to the free newsletter.

Yes, it is free. If you want the premium version where I do extra stuff, you can get that for free by putting in the code goonie, G-o-n-i-e but other than that it was so both it's free, it is free and then the premium version is also free. You get it, it's free. Check it out, you're smart.

you'll figure it out. but pinned his app a chat in the description of the video. Okay, do you have a vest mat? a vest like a bulletproof? You guys think it's going to be that dangerous? Really wins. Pal speaking 2 30 tomorrow Powell is not speaking today.

he's speaking Wednesday March 22nd tomorrow. Uh, he will be speaking at 2 30 p.m ET The results of the FED meeting come out at 2 p.m Uh, but back to this vest thing. You think it's like actually going to be I Just assumed it's going to be for the safety of the streets. Oh okay, you're saying so the streets are protected against me? That makes more sense.

That definitely makes more sense. Um, Dippy that that's very caring of you. Very very caring of you. All right? So let's check a couple of things out.

I Don't want to marry the lead on you here. So here let's see how this is all done. Market Looking really good. In the top left of your screen you see the S P 500 Ripping Ripping ripping.

You see him video ripping. You see Banks Ripping You see Tesla Ripping You just see markets are looking very good including Crypto. Crypto is grinding higher. It's above 28 000.

Looks like it wants to take out 29 and then potentially 30 000. Bitcoin Looking good: Ethereum looking good. Stonk's looking good. You're seeing a lot of bullishness you're seeing for whatever reason.

whether right or wrong. you're seeing people's fear and apprehensions related to the market kind of dissipating right now and some enthusiasm. Some bullish optimism is coming back in. Stock futures rise as Wall Street tries to build on Monday's rally Regional Banks Jump well I Don't know why they just literally have the exact same news there.

What is this? Dao Futures Rise 300 points as First Republic Regional Banks Rebound Well finally I'm in FRC I Bought this one I know some of you did I know some of you thought it was stupid and it's a super degenerate play. This is an extremely high risk High Reward play I Myself bought FRC my long-term account uh, it's currently trading at like 15 or something like that I Got in at 42. So as of now I'm very much underwater. but it's a degenerate play.

Super high risk, super high reward. It is clearly a play that is not for the faint of heart, so a lot of you were. Maybe it's not, particularly in your wheelhouse display. very high risk, very high reward.

And I kind of look at it as a binary event. Either the bank will fail and you're basically going to get Pennies on the dollar or it's going to do like, be saved and then go back to its former might and get back above a hundred dollars. I Don't really see anything in the middle. This is these are going to zero or it's going to bounce right back.

It is a massively massively degenerate play I'm in it I Did it I Want to be transparent with you but this isn't something that you should be like. like yoloing your entire account on unless you want to just be a super degenerate I Don't know I'm not your mom I'm not your dad I Don't like it's your money. You should do what you want with your money. I'll give you my opinions if I think it's smart or not.

but what does my opinion matter I mean everyone has a opinion I Just want to let you know where I'm at with all of it. So as of now, the Dow the S P and the NASDAQ are all green green. Finally, oil is bouncing back a little bit. I'm very surprised oil is under 70 a barrel just because of how much Biden has depleted the Strategic petroleum.

Reserve But looks like we're bouncing back. It might be bouncing back with the administration buying, but they don't seem to have like have mentioned anything about them buying. so I don't think that they are I Think oils draw down is much more related to just fears of the economy. Obviously, if the economic Outlook is a poor one, you're not going to be using as much oil, which is obviously going to be important for many forms of manufacturing Transportation, production, etc etc etc.

So we're bouncing back now. So if anything, it seems to be a little bit more tied to the fact that maybe some optimism is coming back into the overall global economic. Outlook And then we have yields going up ever so slightly on the 10 year. Now let's drill in a little bit to today.

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every evening. get an idea of the upcoming macro economic events. For example, today, 10 a.m existing Home sales. You're also going to know that today from a seasonal perspective.

It's pretty weird. Pretty neutral, a little bit bullish, a little bit bearish, pretty much neutral every single day. You're gonna get that you'll see what's going on with my account. my closed positions new positions: I Do some graphics in here so you can understand more of these complex option positions right here through an iron.

Condor on uh, all the current ones. My price targets the profit or the odds of me making profit on it. and then my thoughts. Like kind of a wrap up.

But anyway, you get this for free. And in terms of like day trading for you folks, it's kind of nice to check what the seasonal bias is or isn't for an individual day. So for example, for today Tuesday March 21st we know that the Bulls have won forty percent of the time. the profit factor is under one.

Which means the Bears have pulled ahead, but it's only recent. It's only it's over the past like two to three years that we saw this trip. Before that, it was very, very, very troppy. So if this is something of interest to you and you don't want me to make a scene at your house tonight, uh, this is where you want to be.

So a big thing of the week is Wednesday in terms of macroeconomic events. Of course there's so many things going on, but I'm saying at 2 p.m ET Wednesday We get the Fed's decision 230 Chairman of the FED here in the U.S Powell will be speaking. There's a couple other things going on later on this week, but Wednesday in terms of macroeconomic economic excuse me events, this is the Big Thing 2 P.m 2 30 tomorrow I will be streaming it. Um, as of now, there is an 86 chance that we are going to get a 25 Bips rate hike.

So as of now, we are at 4.5 In real time, our Fed fund rate is at 4.5 percent. As of tomorrow, it looks like it might the decision might come in to jack it up another 25 Bips point two five percent which would bring us cumulatively to 4.75 percent. Not that I am in any way ass. and I don't think anyone really cares about my opinion on this I actually think it's the right decision I Really really do.

So you can't go 50 bips? Uh, because that would probably break more things than our economy. But I don't think you could go with zero either because if it goes zero I Think from a psychological standpoint, you might be stoking too much fear in everyone paying attention to it because if they go zero when the FED has been parading around like it's the Macy's day Extravaganza Telling us we're raising, we're raising, we're raising. inflation is bad. Bad bad.

We have to do something to fight it. and then all of a sudden if we know they've been telling us that and they've been communicating that very, very clearly, if they decide to stop doing it I Have a fear that it might Stoke panic in the market because all of a sudden people might be like whoa if they went to zero, they might know something that we don't and maybe the situation is even worse than anyone is letting on. So I think the FED is in a very precarious situation where they can't go too much, but they can't go too little. so it's very much like a Goldilocks type of a situation.

That's my opinion on it. I am not some tenured Economist This is like some breakdown. Uh, maybe you agree with me. Maybe you don't.

If you don't agree with me, you're probably the right one in the scenario I Just kind of wanted to give you my thoughts on the overall situation. Treasury Secretary Yellin says the government could backs up more deposits if necessary to stop contagion now. I want you to keep that in mind, but I also want you to listen to what's being reported. Uh, coming from the Treasury Secretary because I think some of you are going to have a couple hot takes Janet Yellen Set to give her Association Now she joins us right now with a preview Kayla Good morning, Good Morning Becky Secretary Yellen's remarks today will defend the government's intervention in the financial system.

Three years after the coveted pandemic began, and 15 years after the Global Financial Crisis Secretary Yellen is expected to reaffirm that the rescue last week was meant to shore up the entire system. saying quote, the steps we took were not focused on aiding specific Banks or classes of banks. Our intervention was necessary to protect the broader U.S banking system and importantly, similar actions could be warranted if smaller institutions suffer deposit runs that pose the risk of contagion. Treasury is suggesting that deposits at other Banks could also be fully insured above 250 000 if there's an exception.

Granted, because that bank poses a systemic risk, Washington is currently weighing whether to permanently raise the threshold on how much is insured in a given account, but a White House official tells me a decision is not imminent there. In the meantime, the Treasury Secretary will describe the situation as stabilizing with deposit outflows slowing in Spain speed and volume despite the uncertainty surrounding Regional Banks Western Alliance Bancorp and Pac West up in pre-market trading After another day of red yesterday, all LED today by First Republic which is up sharply with reports that Banks led by J.P Morgan Chase are undergoing new efforts to strengthen the bank. I'm told by sources familiar with the matter Becky that the talks led by JP Morgan are focused more on longer term contingency planning separate from the sale process that is happening in the meantime. Becky Becky So I wanted to bring that up a couple reasons: Numero Uno Why are we chatting about that? Well, I think a lot of like the banks that they're going to consider backstopping if they need be and this is just my own assumption is going to be the fact that some of them were paying Hefty Hefty fees to speaking such as Gen, the now Treasury Secretary Jenny Yellen who right before she took this gig was getting paid over seven million dollars in total from all of our speaking fees.

This stuff. it's so dumb. it is so absurdly dumb. Like this revolving door we see from the private sector to the public sector and then somehow on an individual basis, people are just using it to line their pockets, line their pockets, line their pockets.

There's no way you could possibly convince me that someone has been paid seven million dollars in total for speaking two Banks Who's now the Treasury Secretary won't remember that when she's like okay I want to save that bank I Don't want to save that bank I Want to save that bank Oh, they did pay me okay I guess I Have to save that bank Oh, they paid me a lot. So I'm going to give them a sweetheart deal. There's no way you're going to convince me. no way you are going to convince me the otherwise.

I Mean at the end of it, we're all just greedy little shitty humans. and I don't think Yellen's any different. But with that being said, I Want to push this back to all of you beautiful folks to kind of get your thoughts on the backstopping and ensuring depositors. Okay, let's talk about what's actually going on.

So are banks themselves? The banks being bailed out? They're not. The banks are going under I Mean we see that they're being sold off. We see that the stock is falling to zero. Uh, we see that the debt is not being saved at all.

But whether you want to call it a bailout, a backstop, or the morally right thing to do the morally wrong thing to do, we are securing depositors. Typically, when you're at a bank, your FDI insurance only goes up to 250 000. So basically let's say your account's a million, your first 250 000 is secured, and if the bank goes under blows up, the government's going to give you your 250k. But the less left over 750 000.

Uh, you are not insured for we are backstopping As of now. Seemingly all depositors. is that a bailout? I mean I It depends on who you are. Um, the way we've used the term in the past, it's not really a bailout.

but I think from just like kind of the populist, um ideology or from headlines. I Understand how people are looking at as a bailout because it comes through as like oh, rich people as in you have more than 250 000 are being protected. but understand that it's not the equity holders. In fact, if the FDI takes over the bank as they did with whatever signature with Svb, the management all got fired.

Management all got fired. the stockholders. It doesn't matter if your retail and institution an Insider they're not protected whatsoever and all the debt holders, they're not protected whatsoever. So none of those people got protections.

it was just people who had deposits at the bank to me. I Don't know if it's really like my Lane to speak about the moral aspect of it or the philosophical, but from the banking or like from a financial perspective, it did help a lot with keeping the contagion either contained or causing it to spread less. if they just said nope, you're all. There's a very very good chance that even if you weren't personally involved at one of those banks, that there would have been other very negative side effects.

like even in your life. So in terms of like from just from a financial business number standpoint, it was good to keep things calm because we could have seen the market get like way way worse. We could have seen interest rates do crazy things with the FED like the this like the day after effect, the domino effect the Snowball Effect would ever effect you want to call it it could have been way way way worse now. I know it's up to you of like okay, is it moral or not and like we all have our own thoughts.

Um, but just understand there's a good argument. A good business argument to be made that even if you're like no, screw them, let them all like get there's a good chance that then you who maybe potentially had nothing to do with it would have also suffered negative consequences even if you didn't use those Banks just from like the market taking a like a massive hit or maybe other adverse business or Market or financial investing implications like it could have got really really bad and even right now things are bouncing back today. But remember sometimes like you get one day erratic movements to the upside or the downside and it could be the opposite of the actual Trend things do seem to be stabilizing in my humble opinion, doesn't really matter much right now. It all really matters tomorrow in terms of the overall economy because we need to know what's going on with the Fed.

And really, the important thing isn't going to be the rate hike I mean 25 bips if you do it. If you don't do it as of now, it's seemingly a drop in the bucket. What's going to be important is the communication. It's gonna be What does Pal say, what doesn't Pal say and the way in which he delivers it.

Everyone is going to be hanging on to every single world word Pal says tomorrow 2 30 p.m ET And of course we're going to be streaming it. but that's what is right now everyone's like really paying attention to. Of course there could be crazy developments like for example, if all the banks, if they're like, nope, we're good. If they show proof of their deposits, no longer, just completely like getting yeeded off a cliff, that could be good or it could go the opposite way.

We're actually like no, like let's say FRC or something like no, we actually have to like sell ourselves. That's really bad. So there could be unscheduled announcements like just kind of like random announcements that relate to these banks that could have a huge, huge, huge impact. But barring any of those developments right now, what we're waiting for is the Fomc meeting and then I would say today particularly people are going to be watching the market.

but I think a lot of people are going to be really paying attention to the drama surrounding, uh, the potential indictment of President Trump Before we get into that, I Do want to point this out. You can't make this up. This was yesterday, right when the market closed Jimbo Kramer The FRC First Republic Bank torture will continue at its regularly scheduled 9 30 a.m hour. referring to today the market closed yesterday right here March 20th and he's telling you that FRC is gonna get like kind of messed up in the morning.

You can't make this up. This is now the article from this morning. First Republic jumps more than 20 leads comeback rally in Regional Banks today Tuesday You cannot make this up I He's almost too good at being the exact opposite. You would assume if you're making generic Market call outs that you're going to be right 50 of the time wrong.

Fifty percent of the time, pretty much you're flipping a quarter. This guy. How how how how how is he always perfectly wrong? I I Just he is defined mathematics. There are statisticians out there who are going more bald than you would expect them to be because he is breaking math before our eyes.

I Get that it's just like the joke all the time of inverse Kramer Inverse Kramer But when you see the cold, hard evidence of when he's telling you that Svb is a great buy like a month ago and then it dies and then he's saying that the pain for FRC will continue today last night and then right here this is one of the major articles it: I I Just don't get it. I Like does he know it? Now at this point is he purposely saying the opposite to like leaning to it because it's maybe better for marketing? Maybe he's getting a lot more I Mean as Everyone likes tweets and comments, it's making his brand bigger and bigger and bigger. I mean we could all name many, many examples of almost being like the quote-unquote villain. Um, so with him, it really does maybe lead to more marketing or I don't know what it is, but at a certain point, how is someone so perfectly wrong? I I just don't understand it I don't understand it at all.

The 17 billion Wipeout of Credit Suisse bondholders has not gone down well in Europe. So for those of you who maybe missed yesterday's show, well first of all, the Merit you're not allowed to skip class. but what you need to know is Credit Suisse it was already going down down they the death of a Thousand Cuts I mean legal issues, the Archangos blow up, mismanagement, uh weird markets like there are many things that added up to credit so he's being in a carious situation over the weekend. they got sold to their biggest competitor UBS and the deal came with like a lot of contingencies and basically it was a great deal for UBS The Swiss National Bank is very much mitigating any of the potential downside for this deal.

from for UBS or basically saying hey, please buy it they settled on 3.2 billion dollars U.S and then the Swiss National Bank is gonna like basically be backstopping UBS losses to the tune of 10 billion and then they're also helping directly with the credit Suite situation by putting up like another 100 Bill to try to keep it all going. So it's pretty crazy, but similar to what we were talking about with like signature Svb where the equity holders not really being bailed out bondholders Definitely not being bailed out. That's what we're seeing here. I mean the bondholders cut absolutely screwed.

If maybe this is like one of your first times bondholders, it's a fancy way to people. The people who own debt, the people who were gave the money gave the loan looking for it to get repaid. Um, that's bondholders. It's just a fancy schmancy business way to say that the Swiss regulator Finma announced Sunday that the so-called additional Tier 1 bonds which are widely regarded as relatively risky investments will be written to zero as part of the deal.

Very risky and it went to zero. Uh, the move has angered Credit Suisse At1 bondholders as their investment have seemingly been lost. Credits we just take over deal were 3.2 billion by Rivals Swiss Bank UBS was agreed Sunday with the help of Swiss Authority So part of the deal which they actually this is kind of crazy, we didn't talk about it yesterday. How crazy is this is that? To make this deal go through the nation of Switzerland change their laws like over the weekend to make this law go through, they changed their laws that they did not have to go for a shareholder vote this.

UBS sale acquisition. uh, shotgun marriage as everyone was calling it yesterday. Usually that's something that the shareholders vote on because it's going to greatly impact the credit. Suite Shareholders for every 22.48 shares of Credit Suisse ahead, they now only have one share of UBS.

It's something that yeah, the shareholders should care about. So there they were bidding, burning the midnight oil on Saturday and Sunday and the nation's like, you know what? We'll just make a new law that you actually don't have to ask your shareholders anymore And that's how they were able to push this deal through. Um, absolutely crazy Hedge fund manager. Nelson Peltz says the government should ensure all Bank deposits for a price now some Pelt So CNBC that he talked to elected officials about expanding the deposit insurance program that is currently capped at 250 000.

The change would involve paying insurance premiums to the Federal Reserve Uh, you would have money flowing in here and all over the world. People would feel safe I Think that's a pretty valid point. We can listen to it a bit more. I Was thinking of maybe potentially an alternative of what if it was 250 000 but what if it was somehow distinguished as like a payroll account? So that's the big thing is I Understand the populist mindset of no like, if you're rich and you got screwed, well, that's whatever.

like you're rich, you'll get over it type of a thing. But my argument is some of these accounts that are over 250 000 are literally payroll accounts. If that's how normal employees get paid and I don't want those people to get screwed. So then I was thinking, well, hang on.

What if we did some sort of different insurance for payroll accounts like if when you were signing up at a bank and if it was a business account if it was somehow distinguished as exclusively for payroll and what if we protected those more? Um, just thinking out loud just wanted to like share the idea. Would love your thoughts on it, but we can listen to this a bit later. I Also want you to know just because people were asking me about Amazon Amazon Job Cuts Rise to 27 000 I Believe 400 will directly be impacting tests or excuse me, What am I thinking of Twitch? So if you're a streamer content creator over there looks like things are continuing to go downhill for Twitch. Honestly, if you're a streamer on Twitch and then you're not somehow replicating your content elsewhere, what are you doing? If you are exclusively betting on Twitch remaining like in the ecosystem that people care about, you need to look at the writing on the wall.

Twitch is going down like the Hindenburg And if you aren't realizing it, you gotta open your eyes and somehow protect yourself. Obviously, I'm very much biased towards Rumble because I think Rumble's amazing, so you might as well at least start multi-streaming over there and putting some of your extra content over there to protect yourself. That's our just my thoughts on the matter. Now before we get into the Trump thing.

five things to know before that stock Market Bell goes Dingity ding ding ding Today Tuesday March 21st Oh man, relief rally. Well, as of right now, the Market's still going up and up and up. FRC getting a nice bounce FRC It is up 27 in pre-market trading right now. We have Tesla going from the bottom left to the top right.

We have Nvidia going from the bottom left to the top right. As of now, it looks like the Bulls are dominating today. first. Republic's Last Resort So I want you guys to know that? Uh, and I've stated this so many times, but maybe there's someone that just clicked in and you're like I haven't heard Matt say that yet First Republic is a super degenerate trade and or investment.

This is binary. Either the bank's going to go under and it's going to be sold off for parts and you're going to get Pennies on the dollar or it's going to make it through this purgatory and return to its former glory. I Don't really see an in-between scenario I wish I could give you the odds of the situation I can't I don't have a accurate model that I would feel comfortable with sharing I Just need to know it's super degenerate if you're buying FRC or any of these. Regional Banks It's not for the faint of heart.

If you're putting money on the table, these are the one of the bets where you're like, okay, like I Understand that there's a decent chance that this money's not coming back. I'm not your mom I'm not your dad I'm not your financial advisor. but I'm gonna tell you bet responsibly. If you're putting any money on the table ever, you got to be mentally prepared for if it does not come back to you.

This isn't one of those things where the odds are Sky High that it recovers. No, no, no, no, no At best it's 50 50 and I don't even know if it's that good. and even speaking to the people who were potentially shorting it it, we're just in a crazy time. You're taking a bet.

This is a wild bet. There's crazy volatility and you just have to be responsible for the type of money that you're throwing down on the table. It's been getting absolutely hammered lately. I'm still in it.

My average cost is 42 and I Put it in my long-term account for a reason because I fully plan on like I don't want a day traded I'm not going to be here like I'm waiting to see if the bank either fails or if it's safe. That's what I'm waiting for. That's why I intentionally put it in my long-term account just to see how all this craziness actually plays out. Pressure on Jassy.

So this is all just about Amazon But kind of like what Almost we've been seeing with Meta is. seemingly some people like when they're doing layoffs because the market is viewing it as you're getting rid of the fat from the company. People you're paying that you should have been paying anyway. Virgin Orbits Existential Crisis I've only looked into this a little bit and it's on the verge of bankruptcy and I don't think it'll be able to survive.

That's my own opinion. Yes, I might be fully 100 wrong, but I just don't see how this company makes it I Really really don't. And uh. president Xi Jinping and Putin strengthened their bond.

Um, they were there for a photo op. So you have China's president Xi Jinping flying to Moscow meaning the Russian President Vladimir Putin obviously doing nothing but making the tensions between the US and China and the U.S and I guess Putin and Russia Uh, not helping that situation whatsoever. All right, let's talk about the drama of the day. So I See a lot of you voted.

Let me see what's going on with the poll right here. Let me end the poll. So I asked everyone, hang on, where is it, Where is it? Where is it I Put: Should Trump be arrested? Two-thirds of you said no. One-third of you said yes.

Now I guess I would love to know your thoughts. Um, hang on. What is this? Uh, dang it. Matt Retail Need your voice at Bbig? Bbig is an absolutely shitty company that sold off its only interesting asset uh low.

Motif is never going to take off they had Kryptonite Krypton was interesting, but now it trades as its own ticker. Uh, Bbig was another pump and dump so there's no way I mean it's volatile and you might get some good movements, but like there's that's not like a a company that has been like attacked by. Wall Street it's a shitty company. There's a reason it was being shorted.

there was 100 reason it was being shorted. But anywho, back to this. Back to this. Back to this: Trump Grand Jury Live Updates: Expected Indictment in payoff to adult actress Stormy Daniels So I want to give you the highlights of what this is, just so you could be a little bit more informed here.

But here's what you need to know is it's all a ledge right now. It's maybe it happens today. maybe it doesn't As I alluded to before, after dating stream: I'm gonna grab my camera that I'm filming with right here, throw a battery in it, get some memory cards on it, and I'm going out on the streets of Manhattan just to see what happens I don't know if anything's gonna happen at all I Really really don't? Um, but I Just want everyone to be a little bit more informed about the situation the eyes of the US political and legal world are focused on. New York City Where Grand Jury is resuming proceedings in a criminal investigation of the former U.S President Donald J Trump Trump over the weekend said he expects to be indicted as soon as today Tuesday the 21st by the Grand Jury over hush money payment made to the adult actress storming Daniel shortly before election day in the 2016 presidential campaign.

Cohen has admitted to giving Daniel's 130 000 buckaroos to keep her quiet about her claims of having adult interactions with Trump. On one occasion years before the election, the investigation by the Manhattan District Attorney's office is eyeing how Trump's company the Trump organization and classified the payment and reimbursement to Cohen as a legal expense. So it seems more of not really that he paid it. it's more of like was it technically a legal expense, that type of a thing.

I don't know. I'm not a lawyer, but that's how I'm like kind of interpreting the situation. I'm like the thing that is potentially um, maybe snagging him or ensnaring him in this current legal web of the classification of that payment and kind of like its business implications. Um, I don't think anyone really cares that like he did it, he basically slept with someone and then tried to give her money to not talk about it because he knew it would be damaging.

but that's not illegal. You can do that if you want. There's no law saying you like that's that is fully legal. It's more of right here.

Classified the payment and reimbursement to Cohen as a legal expense. That's the issue. No one cares, No one cares that he slept with someone. That's old news.

It was big news for a day just because it's like dirt on someone and they're throwing mud against the wall. Um, but it, No one does anyone care. Do do any of you care that he slept with someone and then paid her money to not talk about it? Um, I I Just out of the things that you could arguably like, look at him for. this isn't one of them.

This isn't one of them at all. Uh, technically it was a quote-unquote legal expense. Uh, I wanted to make those jokes too. Did he break the law? If he broke the law, it would be from right here.

The investigation by the DA's office is eyeing how the how Trump's company the Trump organization classified the payment and reimbursement to Cohen as a legal as legal expenses. So it's the classification of the payment from the business. That's the thing that might be like, um, technically illegal. but once again, I'm not a lawyer.

I don't speak legalese, but it has nothing to do with him having relations with this adult actress whatsoever. It has nothing to do with the actual payment. You're allowed to pay people and be like, hey, don't say something and I'll give you money to not say something that's above board. And is it immoral if he was I don't know.

committing adultery. Yeah, you could argue that was immoral, but there's a big difference between being immoral and being illegal And what this is going to do is like I Understand for all, um, whatever presidential hopefuls, there's always going to be people with clickbaity headlines and kind of like whatever developments and then what this is going to do and it's actually already happened Is they just use this as a fundraising opportunity? Um, like Trump's campaign I mean from a psychological or sociological standpoint, they understand their base very very well. This came out: they fired off emails to their entire email list and said hey, like, how help us fight this and then there was a link right there to donate money. They used it very astutely and shrewdly as a money or campaign money raising effort and the people who seem to be against him.

and I'm trying to remain in the middle here because I think I don't know I I Think if you can't put out the good and the bad of anyone out there, I feel like you're just not really paying attention. That's my own opinion if you like. Trump Okay, great hats off to you, but if you can't list some bad things that you don't agree with that he did well, you're not paying attention. Same thing with Biden Whether you like him or hate him, you should be able to name pros and cons about the whole situation.

There's no no way that someone who is an elected official you fully agree with I don't think they fully agree with themselves so there's no way you could fully agree with them. Uh I get that people like to bandwagon and I get that people are like Matt that's a little too based and everyone wants to like, just get like some hardcore rhetoric in One Direction or the other. But if we're being realistic about this like this, what's going on of why he might get in trouble? no one's gonna give a like all all that it's gonna do for this very specific thing and that's what in my opinion we should do is be taking in, um, all this information based on the actual event, not as like a holistic thing. for this one specific thing, this will not get the negative traction that Trump's opposition thinks it will.

If like just the the voting class here does not give a about this. they really really don't I mean even look in chat No one here like honestly I would love, um could could someone who is like a hardcore Biden supporter call in um, chaos? Can you put it in the call-in line and we'll start playing some of these folks, we're gonna post the line you can call in I would love to get your thoughts on the whole Trump indictment thing and I would specifically love for someone who is a Biden supporter to call in and tell us if you care about this at at all. My assumption is that you don't care because who cares about this particular thing. Now granted, you still might dislike Trump like I get that.

I'm not saying that at all I'm saying for this particular thing I just don't think anyone cares and then whoever's doing this effort and pushing it and making it a media circus show I Don't think that they understand that no one cares. Um, but please call in the numbers being posted on both Rumble and also over there on live chat so you guys can get the number and I don't know I'll give it like five or ten minutes. Yeah, who said that? Jimmy it's it's not important. Yeah, it's not important I just don't think anyone gives this.

Um, maybe if there was something that actually had some bite to it, had some teeth on it, it couldn't be important, but no. like if it's how it was classified as a payment, who gives a if anything, this is going to, um, be a net benefit if I had to like predict how this is going to play out I Think this will end up being a net benefit for Trump because he's going to be able to raise more money for his campaign off of it and be like look, they're coming at me for like stupid asinine things we gotta fight back against this I think it's just like honestly, poor marketing uh for the people who don't like Trump if you do like Trump I Think this is going to end up benefiting you. Inflation is important. Yeah, very much.

But don't forget we live in a world where we have a 24-hour uh, news cycle so they always just need to be saying incessantly 24 7. Um, and things like this just because it's like the hot new shiny novel piece of news. Uh, you're gonna have a lot of people focusing on that opposed to like. things that impact like truly have an impact not only on our economy, but on the global economy such as the banking crisis.

Inflation, Uh people. I Don't know. That's just it has to do with like, our seemingly like short-term memory issues as a human. Why is he getting arrested? Um, so I covered it in a bit more detail, but it has to do with the a payment from the Trump organization to Michael Cohen's law outfit and how they classified a payment to Stormy Daniels Basically, is it illegal that it was classified as a legal expense? That's what it's all about.

Good morning, good morning, good morning. Hey, if you haven't already, hit the like button very much helps out with the battle leaderboard over there on Rumble and it helps out the algorithm on YouTube. If you enjoy talking about trending news stocks, crypto options, degeneracy at its finest, this is the place for you to be. Welcome to the goonie.

Clan You are now officially a goonie. All you have to do is hit that subscribe button. Obviously it is free. Um, using campaign money.

Uh I don't actually even know if it was technically campaign money. That's not how I'm reading it. The investigation by the D.A is eyeing how Trump's company Trump organization classified the payment and reimbursement to Cohen as the legal expenses. No, no, no, it doesn't even look like it was campaign money.

Um, they would. Definitely That even actually arguably seems a little bit more sus the money came from Trump organization and it's all about how the payment was classified I know that it's not I don't know everyone's favorite thing. but in this case, the nuances matter like the the semantics matter here. it doesn't even look look like he's being accused of using campaign money.

Is he now raising more campaign money off of this? because he's all over the news? Oh, you betcha. But for this particular thing, it looks like it's the Trump organization paid Cohen his lawyer and that law outfit and it's more of how the payment was classified which maybe has like I don't know like tax implications perhaps or like something like that, but it looks like it's the classification of the payment I Do not believe he's being accused of using campaign money to do it or any of that. um if I'm getting it wrong, please please let me know like show like maybe I'm I don't want to be uh, spreading any false information on it. um but that's just how I interpret him.

Oh also I want to call out to you that there is a downside Gap film. So for my day Traders out there, there's now a downside gaffle on the Spy to 394.17. we had like you can see the Gap right here. The Gap is between today's low and yesterday's high.

This is an untested area. We don't know about the supplier demand in this area because nothing has traded. That was yesterday's high. Today we opened obviously in the overnight action, people were pretty excited.

So when the bell went dingy ding ding ding today, we were training considerably higher. We went as low as 397.22 which means there's a three dollar Gap region. If you're new to this and you're like, well, why are we talking about it? Especially when it comes to the overall market indices such as the S P 500, the NASDAQ, the Russell things like the Spy, the queues and Iwm, The odds of that Gap being filmed are extraordinarily High not 100 because there's no such thing as 100 in the market. but that is a very favorable trade If you take that train time and time and time and time again.

it's a profitable system. Will it fill today? I Mean the odds are high for it I Can't guarantee it because no one can guarantee anything in the market. but the odds of spy touching 390 417 today are very high. Does it mean it's going to happen? No.

I mean if there's General optimism this specific day in the market, it could keep going. Or who knows, maybe there could be optimism right now and then. Maybe people will start unloading the positions in the second half of the day because of there's just the apprehension and the uncertainty related to the Fomc meeting tomorrow and then we might solve in the second half that they could be I am of the opinion that it's always better to wait those first 10 15 20 minutes at Market open to just get the general Vibe of the day I Very much don't like creating new positions at Market open I have no qualms with closing out a position. maybe you got a good gap or and you're up a lot and you just want to take your money I'm completely cool with that, but creating a new position, there's just so much volatility.

There's so much uh churn at Market open that I just don't find it really to be that particularly advantageous to be placing trades right now. There are some strategies that like I've heard of I've worked with a little bit of like ones at Market Open. um I just don't really employ anyone's right now. Uh, the 406 Gap There's actually a couple gaps on the Spy so we now have here I'll make this red just so you we can make it clear that it is the downside.

Gap film. So you have the downside: Gap filled to 394-17 you have an upside Gap fill too right there. Uh, 408 14. So this is actually an upside Gap fell and then I believe there's one more actually.

Yeah, right here. Uh, one more upside gaffle that is to 421-22 So this is the gap from Friday August 19th to Monday August 22nd. So you have two upside Gap fills. Someone called out a 406 Gap fill I Don't know if there's one at 406.

I Know there's some weird issues with this. Um, people who are using Weeble as their charting seems to be like a little bit of a data inconsistency. But what you're going to want to look for is the low on Thursday February 16th. that's the Gap film.

The Upside Gap fill would go to the low and obviously of whatever that day is before the Gap and then the opposite would be true. for downside: Gap those we're going to the high of where the Gap was actually created. so we have one at 394 17. we have one at 408 14 and then there's another one all the way up here at 421.22.

hey there stud muffin. what do you think about Wal? So another Regional Bank um I think this is going to be in the same boat as FRC as what's that other than paw like I think all regional banks are in this together. um I think we're gonna see more pressure, more going to continue to fail or all this something. All of a sudden everything's gonna stabilize and the ones that like weren't taking over are going to start to track back upwards.

Um yeah, maybe there's a couple that are closer to failure. Unfortunately for me and maybe some of you, if there is another one that goes on tilt, there's a very good chance that it is. FRC Uh, unfortunately and I'm just letting you know how it is. and I'm saying that as a person who currently owns FRC right now, um I still like it I mean looking into it.

the reason I bought FRC is because before before all this debacle happened FRC was a legitimately good bank like its numbers were good, its management seemed to be good. Uh, the clients of FRC I don't use it personally but the client said like it was great to work with them. It seemed like a very very good bank that is now just potentially catching the contagion that went from Silvergate to Svb to Signature to Credit Suisse Um, so it's a question, can it survive it? I Bought it because before it all happened, it was legitimately good. So I wanted to buy one when that was good.

Unfortunately, as of now in terms of all the regional banks that are still standing, it seems to be very very much until will it be able to recover I don't know. This is a binary bet I wanted to I'm long on it I'm in FRC at 42 I've lost over 50 percent of the position Yes I wanted to come back I think it's possible coming back, but to put a likelihood to it like oh like I think there's X percentage chance of it being fine I I just I'm I'm not knowledgeable of a model that would tell me like the chances of it. In all reality, Frc's movement today particularly doesn't really matter to me. So first of all, I put in my long-term account because I know at minimum just looking at like how beat up JP Morgan Wells Fargo City Bank of America all got in 2008, you could have bought them very, very cheaply, but it still took many, many months for them to recover.

This isn't going to be a quick thing of like. all of a sudden the next day it opens up at 100. That's why I put in my long-term account because I didn't want to get into that cycle of checking it every single day of like am I up, am I down and as of now, how much am I down? Uh, to me, this is binary. Either it's going to eventually recover and get back to above 100 or it's going to zero.

That's what this bet is, at least in my mind. Maybe you look at it differently and That's cool. Like it takes all types to make the market work I'm just letting you know my opinion on the situation, folks. you know I'm not a financial advisor I'm just a who has a camera and shares my opinion I am not in any way telling you I am an expert and I'm definitely not a person.

you should just be arbitrarily following that would be insane. Uh, that would be really, really insane. Uh, hey, are you expecting new lows on the S P 500? It depends when like and also relative to what lows do. I Expect the S P 500 to make a new all-time low as an essentially go to zero.

No, um, it depends what lows you're talking about and also what time frame are you saying for today? I mean today, there's a really good shot. We get that gaffle back down to 394 and a little bit of change that's totally possible today. Like 3 600 this year? Um, honestly. I think we can get a better idea of that based on the commentary from Powell Tomorrow, right? We're in no man's land right now.

I Want to be very, very clear about this: Today is going to be a technical chop weird kind of a day. Today is kind of a made-up day. It doesn't really matter because if it is Green Day or a red day, it doesn't really matter. It could be completely reverted or even magnified by what Pal does tomorrow and what he says I think it's going to be 25 bips I Don't think it really matters what the rate hike is at this point.

Um, if it's 50, I I think it's just going to be 25. yeah, if it's 50 or zero, that could definitely send some Shock waves. But I think it all comes down to what is Pal gonna say at 2 30. um so I could make an arbitrary guess right now.

but I I just don't think it would be of like any utility because I think we very much need to see hit what he says about the stress on the banking sector. If he is very very like, almost like supportive and like people believe him and he's like no, like we're good, we check the deposits like it's the run's over. there's a good chance that leads to a massive pop, but if he comes up there and he's like folks like this is bad, well obviously that would like just probably intensify and almost in a weird way being uh, end up being a self-fulfilling prophecy for those of you who don't know what's going on with Tesla right now Tesla's up quite a bit. Um, the delivery numbers in China were reported and they were pretty good.

Has Trump said he's running for president? Yeah, that was a while ago. that wasn't new news. Uh macors ETF in the works? Um, it would be a boring one in all reality. the um, if you guys are reading the newsletter the Premium Trading Strategy where I'm just selling a bunch of Premium Um, we kind of started that basically at the start of March uh, that's been green so that one's up obviously I'm getting screwed up on FRC and then to show you what is going on, these are my robots right now.

my robots are trading on the Futures Market Uh, Nope, Wrong one. Uh, looks like I'm currently long on both the NASDAQ and the S P 500. Uh, this is just code that I personally made like these are my own strategies. Um, and then it does.

all the buying, all the selling I Just let it do its thing. Um, so without counting today, you guys can't see it because like down here. um, it's up 230 dollars today so not counting today. let's see how the strategy is doing.

Can you guys see this I Know it's a little small. Let's go for the month of March So today's numbers aren't going to be in, so whatever they are, we would make it 230 dollars better generate. Um, so this one is up 1.3 000. Uh, so basically it's up 1.5 000 in the month.

Not bad for a three or four K account. This is what the equity curve looks like. So um, it did very very well at first this month, then it kind of came down, then it popped. then it came down and ever since I don't know March 16th It's been doing nothing.

little up, little down, little up, little down. uh appears to be popping right now so we would add another. where is this 13? So we would go up to like 15 something like this I don't know. the the new one for today would be roughly where my cursors are so slightly coming back right now.

Would love for it to once again cross the 2K Mark but once again, uh, the magnitude itself doesn't matter. This is a 4K account that is now up 1.5 K So percentage-wise almost up 50. At first it was actually up more than 50. It was almost up 75 like when I first started this it was crushing I was like dude, this is nothing but make money and then it started to suck.

Now it's going sideways and I hope that this is the comeback but uh, this is a no. this isn't me like discretionary training or anything, this is just the robots. I have the code written and it does all the trading for me. I Had some pretty good trades this morning.

Uh, when I was sleeping so it went into a position at whatever 20 30 would be was that late last night. What's 20 30. uh, 8 30 last night and then it got out for me at 7 30 this morning. So it went long all last night on both the NASDAQ and the S P 500 When this? So this one went long.

Oh, right. at Market closed yesterday. When did it get out on the NASDAQ? It got out at 8am and then they chose to go along again. So one good long trade on both of these.

and then it chose to go along again. And as of now, it is looking for a 123 dollar gain on the S P 500. And apparently it doesn't know what it's looking for on the NASDAQ. But as of now, both are up so we'll see how it goes.

Obviously, if the market turns, I'll be screwed here. But we'll see. Fun stuff. Fun stuff.

Fun stuff. Fun stuff. Uh, and I say that as the market takes a little bit of a hit. Uh, look at coin.

Oh, Coinbase has been ripping. Uh, but that's because cryptos like coin is going to be directly related to Bitcoin. Bitcoin's ripping. So coins ripping the same thing with Mara The same thing with Riot.

The same thing with all of those. Um, coin is directly correlated to Bitcoin. Um, so Coin Eight: the ticker symbol for Coinbase in exchange for crypto. Like, as it goes up, there's people are getting into Fomo.

The transaction fees are higher. It just does better as crypto goes up. So really, um, I don't play kickers related to crypto because if I am bullish on crypto I would just buy crypto directly. Um, to me in my mind, why would I take um, the inter business competition as an additional risk? Like there's already enough risk in predicting the right movement of Bitcoin or Ethereum.

Why take on the additional risk of maybe like Mara or Riot like either doing well or not doing well in business in competition with each other. Um I don't need to take on that risk. Damn you up early. Matt What do you what? The Market's been open for 19 minutes.

Man, that's not up early I think Nancy Pelosi should be arrested for Insider training I Don't necessarily disagree. So there is this guy who was, um, some important position for Tesla and he just got two years in prison for Insider training and his Insider training made him 28 000 dollars. Do you know how disgusting that is? Dude at Tesla some engineer or something I don't know I think he's Australian insider trading did something he shouldn't do made 28 grand two years in prison. That's a sentence.

and then we look at our politicians who seemingly are Insider training every single day and just no one gives a like it blows my mind. blows my mind. Uh, because you can do options on coinbase, You can do options on crypto. You can do Futures on crypto.

If your argument is leveraged, you can already get that. You can straight up just get leveraged trading on. Not only could you get options on crypto, you can get leverage trading on Crypto. You could also get futures on crypto.

Uh, um, wait. what was this? As noted above, what was noted above: JG Stocks Paul Pelosi Pick stocks better than Warren Buffett Yeah. I Mean it in itself has become like a bit of a meme and just like a cultural phenomena. Um, but it it's hilarious.

Matt Look at gold. Uh, gold. Recently doing really well. Silver doing really well.

Bitcoin Doing really well. Uh, we have. um Bonds doing really well. So gold got smacked at 2000 a key technical level.

a key, uh, psychological level I Think we have a big old cup and handle. So here's your cup. Here's your handle. inverse Head and Shoulders shoulder head, shoulder.

um I Think it's very like nat