I Feel good I feel I won't stop till we got something you going see when the Jing he w yeah yeah yeah I Feel good, feel good, feel good? Yeah yeah yeah oh brother oh brother oh brother hello hello hello And welcome back to another episode of the Matt Kors show. Where your Matt Kors and the show today and I'm just a dude who's here for the ride I suppose Uh, we have a lot going down today and that's exactly why we're starting early because in a mere 9ish 8ish minutes, we are going to be getting the PPI report the Producer Price Index report another measure of inflation. So yes, expect some volatility in the market today. And on top of that, there's other reasons to expect volatility.

Namely, this is day five of the war in Israel So we're going to be covering the most recent news related to that entire debacle. We have some political volatility here in the US with the speaker of the house. We have some other random commentary from Biden which I thought was a little bit toned deaf that has nothing to do with Israel the US lives lost the US hostages, the fact that we're facing Ww Trace in the face right now. Uh, and he's talking about random Juny.

So I guess we'll get into it cuz he thought it was important enough to talk about. but I don't know if you asked me I thought it was a little bit toned deaf. Um, we have some earnings to talk about. We have other macroeconomic events coming out tomorrow.

it is the start of earning season. It's really picking up. It's officially starting tomorrow. I would say I mean Pepsi already reported so people sometimes say that's the start.

but I like to think of as Delta and the banks that get rocking tomorrow and Friday we're going to go over some seasonality I have some stories for you I mean no one has asked me yet but I'm already 11 days into sober October and it seems like none of you care what. In fact, if anything, the commentary that I'm getting from all of you folks is the opposite. It's like, why do you look so tired and we've been over this I'm not tired I'm just ugly. There's a big big difference between not getting an appropriate amount of sleep and just being an ugly Human Being Sorry Genetically I was born with bags under my eyes I've had them my entire life and none of you are going out of your way to suggest under eye cream to help me with my bag.

So if anything, it's more of your fault than it is my fault. So that's the major commentary I've been getting, but no one's asked me 11 days in. What is it like to be completely sober? Well, I after watching all these videos and reading all these blogs, was under the impression that you would develop some sort of powers. Maybe reading? Minds Maybe the ability to fly? Maybe the ability ility to walk through walls I was under the impression that your life gets me better in many, many different aspects and all I can tell you is on the weekends it's just boring now Friday and Saturday night I Think oh I'm going to go do all this fun stuff and and then I just get bored so that that's I I suppose it's just a little bit more boring so there's not really anything too special to report there I suppose Um, so that's the update on that I wish there was something that like oh man I have two P Honestly, I was about to make a joke about how like oh, I have all these Phds I've read books, I've composed songs, blah blah blah um but it's already 8:24 in the morning today alone I've already done my cardio I've already done my laundry and I've already played with Piper and it's only 8:24 in the morning and I even prep for the the show.

So I got the show done, my cardio, done my laundry done, and I got to hang out with Piper obviously the head of macroanalysis here at this hedge fund. Um, so pretty crazy I would I I don't know how many you guys are probably getting up right now. you're probably just like rolling out of bed throwing me on, thinking all right time to go to school, time to go to work. Uh, and I'm just crushing it and the haircut.

Thank you for noticing the haircut was yesterday though. I Can't say I did the haircut today, but anyway, that's where we're at. That is where we're at. So in a mere four to five minutes, hopefully we're going to be hearing from our boy.

Rick Sintelli of CNBC giving us that Producer Price index report So I First, just because that's coming up first I Feel like we should kind of do a bit of prep work for that? Then we're going to be doing an update on some of the other most recent things and the debacle of the conflict in Israel It is horrific. It is beyond horrific. I Don't think there's really words in any language that captures the disgusting, atrocious nature of currently what is being done by Hamas They are the absolute scum of the Earth people. Um, so we're going to be covering that.

It's a very, very sad thing, but it's a very, very real thing that I think all of us should be a little bit more informed about. Uh, because like the whole out of sight out of mind thing, it might be working for your degenerate call options. Your degenerate put options, but it doesn't work when there's literal crimes against humanity. Um, so we're going to be getting into that I have some other things to go over.

Uh, I am getting right now. that just so you guys know, apparently President Biden is doing another speech today right after market close 4:15 p.m. ET So 15 minutes after the market closes, I'm getting a notification right now that Biden will be giving another speech. So maybe something that you guys want to be paying attention to.

Now on that note, let me switch it over very, very quickly: Stock futures rise after treasury yield slide Exxon makes a deal so big big deal between Exxon and Pioneer. We're going to be covering that, but we'll do that after uh, the report. So just the headline of it exim mble agrees to buy Pioneer Natural Resource for nearly $60 billion in an all stock merger so that if you're in Exxon if you're in Pioneer That was some big update in the world of Black Gold AKA crude oil. and really, this is a lot of strength now in I guess Shale I Would actually argue.

but anyway, we're going to be coming back to that. What I really want you to know about is at 8:30 um, a couple minutes from now, couple minutes from now, we are going to getting the producer price index the month over Monon expectation is. 3% if it comes in higher. I Would personally expect the market to view that as a hawkish development, forcing the FED potentially to be a bit more aggressive.

maybe pushing the stock market down if it comes in a little bit cooler, a little bit low. I Personally would expect the market to view that to be a doish development, pushing the market higher, so lower. In this scenario, the way I view it to be in the current state of monetary policy, a lower number I would view to be bullish and a higher number I would view to be bearish. But anyway, we're going to find that out very very soon.

And then at 2 P.m ET Today we are going to get the Fomc meeting minutes. So this is not an Fomc meeting. this is just the minutes the basically the notes from from the last Fomc meeting. So no Fomc meeting today.

but at 2 P.m. we're going to get more of an update of what went down last time. a lot of the time. Basically up until the start of I guess 2022, no one paid attention to the Fomc meeting minutes.

But then at the start of 2022 Piper what are you doing? they started to sneak in some pretty important stuff in there. so people now do pay attention to it. and an hour before the Market opens tomorrow, we are also going to be getting the CPI report. So with all that being said, let's get ready.

Market Hang on let me turn on all the sound and everything producer price for because we are trying to watch every single read on inflation figure out if inflation is actually coming under control and what the Federal Reserve will or won't do next. We've been watching the Futures this morning and you see right now Dow futures are indicated up by about 90 points, The S&P futures are indicated up by 11, the NASDAQ indicated up by 65. This comes after several days in a row of gains I Think it's now been three sessions in a row of gains. not just for the S&P 500, not just for the Dow, not just for the NASDAQ.

Also the DOW Industrials and keeping track of all of this this morning, they've been higher because of what we've been seeing in the treasury market. If you check out things there, the 10e note has come down considerably now talking about the 10 year 4.89% 30 years back practicing Spanish she only speaks Spanish found out recently she does not understand English what this is after being above 5% recently. So AC the we've seen treas, bullish or bearish, what's your bets Part of that might be security get retically. but it's also idea that the Federal Reserve and several officials there have acknowledged that the market has been doing its work by running ahead of where they've even been pushing rights.

Rick Santelli is standing by at the CM Chicago and Rick Uh, take it away Rick Yes, our September read on the wholesale side of prices in the form of the producer price index September Read on: Headline Month over month expected up 310 of a percent is up a half of 1% up half of 1% that yet unrevised up seven times which was the highest going all the way back in terms of month or month change to June of 22. Strip out the all important food and energy component. we're up 3/10 a little hotter than the two 310 versus last month up 2/10 but the previous month July was up 4/10 of 1% Strip out food trade and energy up 2/10 as expected. Following up 310.

now the year-over-year numbers on Final demand which is basically the year-over-year headline up 2.2% Last look was up 1.6 is what we expected. again up 2.2 is the highest since April when we up 2.3% The sad part here is in a Uh June of this year, we're only up one tenth of a percent. That was the lowest year-over-year since a 2020. so we've definitely accelerated there a bit.

strip out food energy year-over-year up 2.7% that's also the hot of since May when it was up 2.8 and finally subtract food, energy and trade up 2.8% That is the only one that's cooler than its last look which was 3% 2.8 equals what we were in June To find a lower one than 2.8 boy, you have to go way back in the way back machine to Uh February 2021 Ini reaction is for Re. Makes sense to me this notion that inflation I understand that there is a lot of Truth H as as that aren't looking as though they're going to get down to 2% awfully sticky in the process. see that the pre-opening equity's dropped a bit, they've come back to near where they were and very quickly, you know, flight to Safety in my day when I was in the pits was mostly relegated to short maturities. But consider this: the twoes to 10 spread on Friday was minus 28.

It's now minus 39 right now. so the long end drops and yield have been much larger than the short maturities. Now having said that, short Jes have been awfully stable outside of recent volatility. Yesterday was the first close under 5% in a 2-year note in a month.

Becky Back to you Rick I I've been thinking about that trying to figure out you know all of this job owning about how the market is doing the Fed's work for it. That we've been hearing from Fed officials, we've seen yields coming back down. So at what point do they say uhoh, it's not doing our work for us anymore, you know? I I Don't agree with that premise. I Think whose work it's doing well? it's doing the work of the US government and all the relationships in both houses.

Because it certainly seems to me that what's going on Long treas A lot to do with the fact that we can't seem to get our spending, our budget deficit, or the defit miror under control. I Think this com down a little bit. was talking about the other day. He's really been dispensed inre prior to this flight.

not sure that many bu that argument. So you think it's about demand and how much you're going to have to pay people to actually hold on to these to these treasuries? Absolutely. And I think that's a big Dynamic But having said all that, I'm actually very surprised that the amount of flight to safety going into this equation and it's going to be a real wake up. See how all of that behaves when we see less geopolitical headlines coming out of the Middle East Okay, Rick Stay with us.

Let's open this up to the broader panel. Want to bring in Joe Leia Who is SMBC Nio Securities Americ Brst Betsy Stevenson a professor of Economics at the University of Michigan and our very own senior economics reporter Steve Leeman Steve Why don't we start with you other things you want to pull out This we just got: senior Economics Reporter: I guess I start just disagreeing a bit with Rick I mean I Think if you look at how the market has reacted to upside economic surprises, there is definitely a piece of this surge. y dat it pretty sharply through the months of July and SE and August as we were marking up GDP but also as the government was issuing and surprising the market with issuing debt. So there's three parts to the rise and yields.

and I think all of them have a place uh in the discussion uh Stronger economic growth? uh, greater issuance by the treasury? uh as well as more hawkish Fed talk. Um, when I look at this number today uh, Becky I see a big piece of energy in there and a big piece of Trade Services So I'm not quite sure I'm going to get too excited about upside on the services side or the PPI side of inflation here. and when I look at how the FED funds Market has reacted, which is almost not all. In fact, through this whole process of stronger economic growth and higher yields, what we've seen is there is not higher inflation component to it.

As every Fed speaker and almost every Wall Street analyst has noted, these are rises in real yields. These are not rises in inflation expectations. All right. Joe You get to decide who's right.

Uh, I'm going have to go with Steve No, I'm going to have to go with Steve. Although I would add one of the factors that's pushed yields higher we've modeled, this is actually Asian related selling. So if you look at what we think is coming out of China and Japan both investor based and official authorities, we think there's a lot of selling so as to prevent those currencies from weakening further. Which means that if the Boj eventually sort of comes off this yield curve control and they come off of negative rates, actually, that could be beneficial for treasuries as it stabilizes the dollar and stabilizes their selling.

But but uh, Steve is correct. It's really been about real yields or what the FED cost term premium that will hurt the economy. look at mortgage spreads to treasury. Mortgage basis is very wide.

Mortgage rates are s and a half 8% that will weaken housing manufacturing is in recession. So I as I've said many times, had overdone it. The question is, when does the economy roll over and what do you think The answer is to that if you look at the yield curve Becky It says that we could go as late as Q1 of next year in terms of like the longest time we've had to wait for something to happen. It would have happened back in the spring the added 4 sheet in the bank term funding program.

the economy I would argue again, the under structure, the foundation of the economy is soft and the fact even that's still high and the fact that bill rates are at 550 or thereabouts means your Equity risk premium is deeply negative and the equity Market has not made a new. There's an upside Gill on the Spy Talk about how the economy looks to you because you know you've got inflation because consumers continue to spend. We had Bank of America on earlier this morning talking about how they saw a card spending up by 0.7% for the last month. Um, it doesn't look like a lot of weakness to date, but do you worry about what's to come? Do you think the Fed's done too much? Consumers are weakening, But credit card spending.

We definitely are seeing robust or resilient consumer spending. And and we've I mean the FED has been working in an environment where consumers keep spending now for the last two years. But there is concern or maybe you would say hope depending on how you look at it, that consumer spending is going to start to soften. I Think it's going to start to soften because of the kinds of headwinds that consumers are facing.

They've run down a lot of, uh, you know, the savings that for a long time they had excess Savings in their balance sheets. Uh, they've run that down. We've got student loan repayments that are restarting. Um, you have? You know, this increase in in housing prices that really hurts, uh, budgets.

And then we've got the expiration of the funding for child care, which is going to either push child care costs up for some families and lead other families to decide they can get by on one income. Either way, that's going to lead families to cut back on spending so we just have a lot of things all pushing in the direction of consumer spending less you know, over the next six months. So I Do think we're going to start to see that softening and consumer spending? Steve I don't know saw interview. One of the things that that Liz ever Chrisberg had to say from Bank of America is that they are seeing people trade down.

Maybe the number of people who were going to restaurants to sit down dining restaurants is down and that you have seen an uptick. or they have seen an uptick in their numbers and people who are eating out of fast food places. That's something that's a little indicative of people picking and choosing where they're spending their money and choosing to cut back on that discretionary area you know. Becky I I I did see the interview I think it was very interesting I I Have been collecting one guacamole for every time a person has said the consumer is going to slow.

I have a large bowl full of gu guacamole now collected over the guac. Must be nasty guacamole? They they don't I know everything Betsy says is 100% right about the concern about the consumer. My concern is this: I think that economists have under overplayed the importance of government assistance and underplayed the importance of wages. A lot of people are employed and some of the raises they've gotten.

Some of them have not always kept pace with inflation, but they are still getting decent size raises relative to history and people seem to be spending that money. The government just drastically revised up, by the way, the amount of savings that people had or they estimated that they had in their pockets. So um, everything Betsy says is right. There are challenges to the consumer I Feel like people want to jump on that story of the consumer is slowing down.

the consumer is going to give it up and it has been wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong. And I know it's wrong because every darn time I have to revise up my GDP forecast because my 13 contributors to the CNBC rapid update had it wrong to begin with. they gave us a 03 percentage Point forecast for the third quarter going into it in June and now they're up to 3.7. So I kind of rest My all right.

So for those of you who are joining the PPI report just dropped at 8:30 a.m. ET We dropped, we popped, we dropped, and so we're slight. No, it's still going down so it's a drop, but not a huge one. We were basically at 43590.

we're at 43526, so like 65 cents. So honestly less of a reaction than I Thought we would have month over month. The PPI rating was 0.5% .5% they were expecting. 3 so it came in a bit hot.

Uh, inflation in the producer price index was higher than expected. If you look at the month-over-month core taking out food and energy, it was3 the expectation was 0.2 and then if you take out food, energy and trade it was 0.2 and the expectation was 0.2 Once again, this was for the PPI month over month reading. If you want to look at the year-over-year uh, it came in at 2.2% My my apologies last time around it was 1.6 If you take out food in energy it was 2.7 and if you, uh, look at trade, it was 2.8 Those were the year-over-year readings. So the numbers came in hot higher than expected.

I Fully believe that's exactly why the first reaction was negative. But what I want to bring to your attention is the last time we've had these types of reports even though something comes in hot or cold. oddly enough, it's been heavily reverted throughout the day. so the initial reaction makes sense to me.

But where are we going from here? Well, this is now already baked into the market, so looking forward, you have to look at what's else is going to be happening within the Us alone. We have Biden making remarks right after the market closes, so the market might be trying to predict what he's going to be talking about. Also, within the US government, we might be getting an election of the Speaker of the House today that could have an influence. Uh, you might have people getting prepped for tomorrow where we get the CPI report an hour before the Market opens.

Obviously the current situation, the war in Israel that could cause the market to go up or to go down. Um, so this number. it's already baked in the world knows it. The algorithms have reacted to it, The computers have done what they need to do, so it's a game of future looking of what's the next thing on Deck.

So we have various things going on in the US. It's the start of earning season, inflation, reports, political scene, and that's all in the US and then obviously globally. we still have some velopments of things going on in the Middle East We have developments of what's going on in Russia and Ukraine We have developments of what's going on in China so this is already baked in I'm not and I actually don't think it's smart to try to be making predictions of where's the market going Now on this report when we already have the information, the market: I Don't think it's uh, perfectly efficient, but I think it's very close to it. So this report already baked in, so in my opinion, you have to ask yourself what is going on next.

Now on that note, just because we're talking about it, here's a look at the daily chart for the Spy the ETF tracking the S&P 500. obviously the past three days. higher highs, higher lows very nicely green. Saving itself from a breakdown that we almost start at the saw saw at the start of October, we do have this upside: Gap fill to 43843 This is the low from Wednesday September 20th I'm very very very much watching that in the short time.

My apologies this cat and my allergies. My histamines didn't kick in. My apologies. this is why I'm never invited on with Kelly Rippa I mean the amount of times that they're like, hey, we would love you to come on the show but we're just like super super worried you're going to sneeze during an important joke.

An important bit, we can't take the risk. and I a massive massive fan of Kelly Rippa uh I understand I I wouldn't want to do anything to jeopardize the show, her career, her livelihood. so I I can't even blame her I really can't even blame her I completely understand why I am where I am and why she is where she is because she she doesn't sneeze during her show and that is a certain skill set that obviously I do not possess. But I also have deeply rooted fears that I don't think I'm ever going to Pro possess.

so uh, I just want to put that out there. Uh, how dare you blame Piper I'm not really blaming her I'm blaming my body's biological overreaction to her dander. So she happens to have well, really, what you're allergic to is the saliva that dries on their like coats and I for whatever reason, my body whenever that enters my system, my body internally is like what is this, What in the world is this? We need to protect everything at all costs by making his nose sniffly and potentially making his eyes watery and itchy. That's what my body for whatever reason believes to be the appropriate response.

now. I Don't agree with my body's response I'm like, hey body, it's okay. it, it's absolutely okay. It's just pet dander that it's not going to be taking us out, but my body's like no way man, no way.

This is dangerous. We need to make you sniffly. We got to protect you at all cost. brother.

Your eyes are going to be itching, itching for at least an hour and sometimes I Uh, take the antihistamine and it makes my body calm down a little bit more of the hippie phase of like Hey brother, this might be cool. this might be fine, um, but that's where we're at. Really, this all adds up to I completely understand why Kelly Ripa Never invites me on, but it is what it is. takes some benad drro makes you feel funny and weird too.

I Always feel funny and weird. uh, but that also makes you super super tired. So I don't think it would be the smartest thing for me to take that. But anyway, very quickly coming back to the market and I have more things to say about the market.

Upside: Gap Fill 43843 if you're looking at the cues: Similar situation higher highs higher lows After a fake out breakdown, a little bit of a liquidity sweep right here below 35471 We've been pushing higher breakout above this trend line. Nice hold above this trend line running right into a bit of a a region where like previously, the markets had a bit of a Tango support resistance running into that. Yesterday 37128 was the high and that aligns literally perfectly with here. Uh, if it keeps going, my next watch would be in the region of about 375 376 if it keeps going.

But I really have no special prediction. Watch the price action, Watch the trend trade with the trend. Yes, there's two major ideologies when trading Trend following and mean reversion. So it depends what time frame you're on and also just what I guess is reasonable to you.

But if you think the trend's going to continue, ride it if you think it's overextended and it's due to come back to some sort of average average I.E mean then you could maybe throw on a mean reversion play. Uh, but in either scenario, it really doesn't change the name of the game of what's your risk, what's your reward and obviously stick to your risk I wouldn't be in the game of prediction I would be in the game of reacting react to the price action I wouldn't just be willy-nilly be like oh I Think this is going to happen because hey folks, think about where we are. Think about your tool set. We do not have the same reaction.

We don't have the same information, We don't have the same I guess like resources at our disposal as like the big money on Wall Street does. they're in the game. Probably doing quite a bit of predicting well depending on the fund and the outfit. Uh, but for us, we, we just don't have that information.

So you have to do your best with what is available to you. And as a retail Trader A retail investor I would wholeheartedly argue the best thing you could do is be reactive to the market, not predictive of the market. Especially when you're actively trading investing. That's a different situation.

Uh, the longer your time frame, there's less Randomness So if you want to predict the growth of a company such as like, do you think Apple's going to be bigger a decade from now, that's a prediction for a long-term investment and I'm all on board with that I agree with that type of stuff. Uh, but to try to predict of where's the market going today? No, just be reactive to breakouts, to breakdowns, to liquidity sweeps, to what's going on in the options Market Uh, there's things that you could do that are I I would say going to make you want to pull your hair out less and probably make you, uh, overall, a bit more successful in your Market Endeavors So anyway, Market did what is this live? Updates: Gaza's only Power Plant runs out of fuel Gaza's only Power Plant runs out of fuel Israeli Encourage incursion expected soon. Former US official says: whoa whoa whoa whoa Latest: Israel latest hasbullah uh Israel trade fire on Lebanon border. Remember the Lebanon on Border just for a bit of context is to the north Israel Just to I don't know.

Inform people a bit more. So here's what we have. Quick recap: Here's Israel It's to the northeast of Africa. It's right to the southeast of the Mediterranean Sea.

What's important about this region is to understand that here's Israel Israel Uh, right here: the West Bank Which oddly enough, it's on the east side of Israel. But it's the West Bank because it's the West Bank of this body of water. the Dead Sea And then you have the Gaza Strip So West Bank Gaza Strip in control of Palestine Now this group of Palestine is more of a militant group referred to as Hamas while this group in the West Bank is more of the Palestinian Authority. Both groups want the downfall of Israel.

But the West Bank Palestinians they're more so trying to make that happen through a political legal Un route. They're lobbying, they're getting lawyers. All that good stuff. The Hamas group, the militant group of Palestine.

They're in the Gaza Strip and they are I Mean, you might agree, you might disagree, but I wholeheartedly believe they are terrorists I I Don't actually even understand the argument that they're not terrorists. Um, in my mind my definition of what's going on this group right here. it's a Palestinian group it's run by Hamas Hamas is a militant group and they are literally um, just murder in innocent people men, women, children. Um, so just a little bit of what's going on.

So to the North right here, over here. Northeast you have Syria directly to the North you have Lebanon Um and that's what this is talking about here. Give us a better understanding of what these assistance packages involve I you So the US has pledged a lot of Um support Um over over the last 24 hours um or so. And that speech from President Joe Biden last night really reaffirmed that the US will give whatever assistance um uh, Israel needs and some of that will come in the form of military assistance.

We're not talking about boots on the ground, but we've already seen the US move um, an aircraft carrier group to the Eastern Mediterranean Uh, not far off the coast of Um Israel There are reports that it may send another carrier group there and it's also going to Um provide Uh Personnel in the form of intelligence specialist to to help Um Israel over over the coming uh days and weeks as it as it continues to um to to respond to Saturday's uh, devastating attack in in in southern Israel by Hamas Now Turkey and the United States are both part of NATO and yesterday you had Tur President meeting with the Austrian Chancellor and he made made some very critical comments of that kind of us Support: Let's take a quick listen: What is the US aircraft carrier doing off Israel What is it coming to do? What will they do with the Bocra carrier surrounded with they will take down Gaza by striking the surrounding areas and start committing serious massacres. Is this once again a Turkish state that is moving away from the West and closer? Spy bouncing a little bit, bouncing a little bit just so you know. I Think it's difficult to tell for now, but I think what it really does underscore is the weariness um that we're seeing in in parts of the Middle East uh and Beyond Turkey uh. In the in the Arab world about what may come next, we are expecting or it's widely expected that the Um, the IDF, the Israeli military will go into Gaza with a ground Invasion that's going to be extremely, uh, tricky and in all likelihood the death toll from that will be very, very high on the Palestinian side.

H It could well last for weeks because going into the Gaza Strip even for military as powerful as as Israel's is extremely difficult. So I think what? Uh, President Erdan uh said kind of underscores, um some of the sort of um concern uh that we've seen uh um in in parts of Um, the Uh, the Middle East and don't know there's no guarantee. Gaza Gaza Strip with but as I that is expected and that is something that could uh could really raise tension yday um across across a large s of the Middle East I mean President Erdogan was speaking to Russia's President Vladimir Putin uh yesterday evening and as he was liasing with regional leaders as well to try and sort of find an offer ramp. uh can you get us up to speed with the updates on the ground in terms of the movement of military assets and more importantly the casualties.

So when we talking of casualties, the the death toll uh is now up to over 2,000 Israel is saying 1,200 people um died on on Saturday and in in the subsequent days from Hamas's attack in in the south of the country. the number of Pal Ians killed from Israeli retaliatory strikes on the Gaza Strip is is up to um about a thousand. So we're we're talking over 2,000 deaths so far Israel has called up 300,000 reservists that's a mass and Rapid mobilization of uh of troops the biggest in its history. Um, it is.

It is. Uh, a lot of them are being um, a a lot of them are sort of all right. decent. Update: I Suppose kind of highle stuff from from yesterday Bloomberg It was super super awkward because yesterday a lot of uh, different media sources were reporting that I believe 40 infants who were taken from Israel by Hamas were beheaded and then the news reports came out that oh actually it wasn't all 40, but there was some number of, well, the 40 kids were taken but not all 40 were beheaded and then Bloomberg had to do this super awkward walk back of like well okay, we get that that it was wrong, but like they were like dude, it doesn't matter if the number's in excess of zero, it's beyond messed up.

So super awkward of Bloomberg trying to say like hey, like well we're trying to report but we also want to make sure that the information is all like accurate and like Then they were trying to like. imagine imagine that being like a human with your brain screwed on right to be like yeah, well it actually wasn't 40 though like if that, that's the argument. Like wild, absolutely wild Hamas got around Israel surveillance prowess by going dark. Um, so this is one of the biggest questions is how did it happen? Because arguably Israel is in possession of one of the strongest intelligence agencies in the entire world if not the most powerful and they're like, well, how did this happen? Because this wasn't like a minimal Thing by any means.

this was like a very, very serious thing. uh, land, sea air. The attack came from all directions. Obviously it was Advanced To the point of like cyber security, it was Advanced to the point of just like how it was all executed and apparently the way they did it is by going dark.

militant group went low. Tech in its attack against Israel group may have exploited Idf's overconfidence according to an analyst. So this itself is getting a little bit. uh, suspect because apparently a couple weeks or sometime before the attack happened e Egypt reached out to Israel and be like yo, we're getting some information.

something's a little suspect. So the government of Egypt reached out to Israel like we're getting some information and a lot of people are looking at like the Prime Minister BB and saying what? what? Why did you have this and do nothing about it So there's there's still a bit of opaqueness, murkiness of how this even possibly unfolded. and I guess in a weird way, maybe that's something you consider way on from now. Like the question of it.

it kind of doesn't matter cuz it's already here. it's already happening. So maybe that's something you ask when it's all concluded and once again I Hope that this concludes today. If I could wave a magic wand and have this just be done it I would um I I Pray for everyone in this entire region, especially all the innocent men, women, and children who want nothing to do with this whatsoever whatsoever.

So we have some other updates. but uh, I'll come back to this. Uh White House announces new efforts to crack down on tens of billions in junk fees I Don't know why, but apparently the White House believes that this is the perfect time to I Guess be publicly stating that they're still focusing on other things I Mean, talk about not being able to read the room. The Biden Administration will continue its efforts to ban junk fees with new federal proposals.

The FTC and Cfbp will announce steps toward Banning Junk fees in the business and banking sectors. Junk fees cost Americans Tens of billions of each year according to the White House I'm not even necessarily against this I Just think that maybe maybe maybe maybe they need to, um, read the room a bit. Maybe save this announcement for later I'm not against them doing it I Think it's actually a positive thing to do. It's very rare that I tip my hat to Biden thinking that the administration is doing something appropriate and this is one of them I Just once again, think, read the room.

Absolutely. Maybe just read the room of what what's going on right now. House Republicans Try to pick speaker with 2% chance of a quick Choice Republican Lawmakers lawmakers meet today Wednesday to choose a speaker nominee a McCarthy inflamed tensions in divided part in divided party excuse me so Matt Gates A representative a Republican representative from Florida outed Kevin McCarthy Ever since, he basically played nice with the other side of the aisle to get to stop the Govern shut down from happening. and remember even that is only uh, kicking the can down the road as the point we get to Mid November there's another chance of another government shut down.

But anyway, right now you have Jordan and scales who are currently the Front Runners and also with the new tensions and the war and the conflict and everything going on in Israel They very much want a speaker of the house because to my understanding and I'm by no means a political expert here. Um, but they need not an interm speaker of the house, but a legitimate Speaker of the House to most likely get some of the things pass that they're going to have to get passed to get us through this ordeal. So anyway, they're saying a 2% chance, but early this morning I saw this and I just want to share it with you US House Majority Leader Scalise Confident house will have a speaker by the end of day, so we actually might have one. It's it's going to be either Scalise or Jordan Uh, but early report I mean 8:00 a.m.

this morning that we could have one by the end of today, so just wanted to bring that to your attention. Another thing to consider that will clearly have an impact on the economy on the market and really just the global craziness right now. Obviously, we got the inflation report this morning. The PPI report came out at 8:30 if you're joining in right now.

We started early because the Producer Price index came out at 8:30 A.M ET and it came in hotter than expected. not incredibly hotter than expected, but definitely hotter than expected. And that's exactly why the initial reaction at 8:30 was a negative one. rallied back, got smacked, rallying a little bit.

currently getting smacked, but uh, the Bulls are finding some reason to continue to show strength. So anyway, just to best explain why this initial reaction why this 830 bar was a negative one, it's because the Producer Price index was reported, the inflation report came out and it was higher than expected, and obviously the initial reaction the markets were like uhoh, this might Force the FED to continue on. Its very, very hawkish stance, especially as we're going into that next Fomc meeting which is Wednesday November 1st we get the results. So um, they're trying to predict what's going to be going on with the FED interest rate the way things are settling out right now, especially if you consider the very, very, very very very very high level of yields.

Well, it looks like the chances are that we might, we might. and I'm saying that with a giant ashri, don't hold me to this, but we might be done with the interest rate hikes. Higher rates may be needed to curb inflation. Feds Bowman says so she's bucking the trend a little bit because a lot of the recent ones uh, the most recent was the uh, vice president or the vice whatever.

uh Jefferson uh, he was saying hey I agree with a lot of these other ones echoing the same commentary of like we might be good but Bowman uh coming in a little bit more hawkish, a little bit more bearish in the market Fed Governor says spending still strong, labor market tight Bowman warns higher rates may pose Financial Stability risks Federal Reserve Michelle Bowman Said interest rates may need to rise further and stay higher for longer than previously expected to get inflation down to the central bank's goal. Once again, kind of going against the grain. Based on the recent Fomc member commentary, the recent Fomc member commentary was actually kind of doish of saying hey, we think we might be done. maybe just maybe we don't want to overdo it.

we don't want more Banks to blow up. We're seeing that Consumers, even though the labor market is still relatively pretty Tght, even though unemployment is still relatively low, we're seeing that they're really eating into the earnings. or excuse me, their savings earnings. That' be funny if as like a human, every single quarter like you individually reported your own earnings.

You're like this is how I've done in the last fiscal quarter I Don't know, maybe it's an idea, but anyway, um, there is still savings. That cushion is being depleted. Student loan repayments are starting, and we're also seeing credit card debt hit record highs. Um, so there are certain things that it would be relatively dangerous to overdo it.

So I think they're trying to be cautious of that, but overall, more important than any of that. Banks Blowing up people having hard financial issues. Uh, the FED very much wants to get inflation back to 2% That's literally one of their mandates, so just something to consider. We're going to be talking more and more and more about this as we get to the end of the month because that's the next Fomc meeting.

Speaking of the Fomc meeting today at 2: P.m. 2 hours before the market closes, the Fomc meeting minutes will be coming out, which are basically just the very, very thorough notes from the last Fomc meeting. So it has nothing to do with like something currently going on. It's just the last Fomc meeting and it just kind of gives a little bit more insight to what was said.

Who said what? the overall Vibe of the situation? Uh, don't forget, it's also the start of earning season. so before the Market opens tomorrow, we're going to hear from Delta I specific Al Bring that one to your attention because there's not much deviation between all the major airlines. When I'm talking about major airlines, I'm basically talking about the big four Delta United Southwest and American Those are the major four and they rarely, rarely, rarely deviate from each other. Another way to say that is if a Delta does well, most likely the other three as we get, their earnings are going to do well.

If Delta does poorly, pretty good chance that the other ones will do poorly. The businesses are just absur AB L similar so there there's not much of a deviation there there can be, but that's with a low statistical chance. So anyway, that comes out before the Market opens tomorrow. Personally, I'm not playing it I'm not a fan of playing earnings, but it would probably make me a bit more confident in the future of predicting what will go down with Southwest United and American.

Anyway, on Friday This is where the party really starts. I Mean this beforehand. We already got Pepsi Pepsi beat uh Delta We'll see how that goes. but Friday the party gets going with all these major Banks JP Morgan City Black Rock Wells Fargo PNC And then on top of that, we get the biggest health insurance play uh, United Health Group also reporting.

So the real party of earnings gets started this Friday and it's going to be continuing for the next three to four weeks roughly just so everyone knows. So that's going to be going down. Uh, speaking of earnings and movements, it was announced this morning: Exon Mobile Ticker Sing XOM agrees to buy Pioneer Natural Resources for nearly 60 billion in all stock merger as part of the agreement Pioneer stockholders will receive 2.32 shares of Exxon for every Pioneer share they own. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2024.

The company said in a release Exxon said its production volume and the Peran Basin would be more than double to 1.3 million barrels per day once the transaction closes. So if you're playing oil energy especially XOM you're going to have this. Generally this is kind of interesting. Um, once again, there's nothing that is like the end All Beall gospel.

When it comes to the market, you can always find kind F counter examples. But a lot of the times when you hear about mergers, the bigger company that the smaller companies being merged into typically on the announcement that does kind of poorly while the one being absorbed does really really well. Uh, is it even going to show Pioneer or is it already taken off? uh I don't know Pioneer right here. Uh p XD Uh, so this one's already up while Exxon is actually down.

So that is the common reaction. Once again, it's not the end, All be all. but that's what you're going to see that's the common pattern more specific to today. Don't forget to sign up for the newsletter Mc.

Locals.com It is free and ideally as early as next week. If everything aligns the way it needs to, this will also be your way to access the Discord. Everything's kind of humming along in the back end. We just have to do some checks and get certain robots and stuff set up, but we're about 80 to 85 to 90% of where we need to be with the Discord and the connection of locals to Discord just so everyone knows.

Um, but anyway. uh, on the newsletter itself which is free I give a breakdown of the most recent week and what? I'm looking forward to the upcoming week, all the market events, all of the earnings. The seasonality today is Wednesday Wednesday October 11th. Historically, this is a neutral day, leaning slightly bearish, but pretty much a neutral day for the remainder of the week.

Week Thursday and Friday are both bullish. Thursday and Friday are bullish today. a bit neutral. uh I give you updates of the zero DTE strategy thus far in the week I think it's two out of four 50% but I'll update that later and then all my charts of interest of what I'm personally watching obviously meta breaking out AMD breaking out looking for the cues to overtake this trend line it did.

Looking for the Spy to hold this trend line? it did. What else did I have in here? Oh in Nvidia seeing it, how it would react to 460, would it keep going or would it get smacked and then other just ran and for my life. But anyway, Mcor Locals.com Five things to know before that stock market Bell goes dingy ding ding ding today Wednesday October 11th I Need you guys to be quiet because I just realized that Piper is sleeping right over there. Is there a way I can show you guys with the camera? This cat that just passed out? Hang on one second.

hang on one. Just everyone. Quiet. Don't be rude.

Don't be rude about this. How? what's the best way for me to show you what's going on? Uhoh you guys woke her up. She heard she heard us talking about her, everyone, Everyone just quiet. everyone.

just shut up. shut your shut your mouth. she'll go back to sleep. Let's just let's just let's just.

you can't want it too much. That's the trick with really having a cat is you can't show that you care too much. That's like the Kryptonite when you own a cat. Uh, yielding a little just talking about yields popping, but they are.

Overall, they've been popping, taking a bit of a breather recently, which means bonds have been absolutely plummeting, but recently popping a little bit, preparing to invade. Uh, lot of commentary overnight early this morning is that Israel is getting prep to do a fullon basically incursion into the Gaza Strip region B Beren Stock Uh Birkin Um, Birken stock right here. Uh BK should be making its debut. Uh, today they are looking.

Uh around $46 Bell on Tuesday after the 46 Bell on T Oh wait. Tuesday did it already go? I Thought it was today B K No, it didn't. Okay, so I'm right. So anyway should be making its public debut today.

Xap Mobile agrees to buy Pioneer We talked about that a time for choosing. We might be having a new Speaker of the House the GOP Speaker of the house by today. That's what we're kind of hearing from. Jordan Uh, Jordan and Scalise are the Front Runners in the whole situation, but we're going to see how that all ends up panning out.

I Do have an update on some of the FTX San Bakman Freed stuff going on. So if you're following the world of Crypto right now, Bitcoin's looking pretty good, but overall, the movement's been muted. A lot of sideways movement in the world of crypto. Uh, but that's just a price action because the news in the world of Crypto while everyone's paying attention to what's going on with the Sam Bakman Freed FTX trial and yesterday his on again off again girlfriend and also the CEO of Alam which was the hedge fund where all the customer funds were being transferred from FTX to Alamida that was a hedge fund that was trading that was basically trying to trade itself out of some massive massive losses.

Obviously they didn't pull it off, but anyway, Caroline Ellison was the CEO of Alam the on again, off again girlfriend of Sam Bakman freed Caroline Allison Took almost 30 seconds to recognize ex-boyfriend Sam Bakman freed as testimony begins Caroline Allison The former head of Spf's crypto hedge fund took the stand Tuesday as the prosecution star witness against the FTX founder Elson who is Spf's girlfriend pleaded guilty in December to fraud and from the stand Elson Had to look around the courtroom for nearly 30 seconds before identifying Bankman Freed. Uhoh, where's the volume? Very tangled web hi Kate hi Tyler So Caroline Ellison is on the witness stand as we speak The prosecution Coming Out Swinging today asking her, did you commit Financial crimes when you were running Sam Bman Freed's H fund Alam Ellison Saying without hesitation yes Then she said quote Sam directed me to commit these crimes She arrived today this morning in a baseball cap. She came in through a side door of the courthouse. When she did go into the courtroom, there was no eye contact.

She walked right by Sam Bankman freed. They both stared Straight Ahead Today, prosecutors had her look around. Bankman freed. It actually took her 30 seconds.

She stood up, kind of peaked around. Then she said there he is Took a little bit of time there, but Ellison said she met Sam Bank Bankman freed when she was an intern at Jane Street then dated him for a couple of years. She was calm today. Very matter of factoring all of this, she spoke pretty slowly and deliberately.

Allison was one of the highest ranking Executives in Bankman Freed's inner circle. with him in the Bahamas among the Things She Said Benman Freed knew about and approved first a $65 billion line of credit and the ability for Alam to have billions of dollars worth of customer funds from FTX sent into its bank account. She also said s SPF was the one to direct employees to set up some of the systems that allowed all of this. She also said that SPF as he's also known, directed her to use customer funds to repay loans in the ballpark of10 billion and told her to adjust Alam's balance sheet when sending it over to lenders in a way that made it look less risky.

Bankman Freed has pleaded not guilty to seven counts of Fraud and conspiracy Ellison has pleaded guilty to similar charges. We did hear a similar testimony this morning from Gary Wong he's the co-founder of FTX He said that Sam Bankman Freed knew about customer money being taken and spent illegally as well. Back to you guys. All right, yeah, that guy, he's screwed.

He is absolutely K Now to take. Thank you so much for being here. a little bit more on that. Bakman Freed knew of Alam Meer risks ex-girlfriend testifies Caroline Ellison was CEO of FTX sister trading firm Alam I don't think we have the money for this Ellison warned him Uh, once again they are continually doing this girl dirty with all the photos that they keep using of her.

um, jurors in the fraud trial of FTX co-founder Sam Bigman freed her his ex-girlfriend Caroline Ellison explained how he allegedly arranged for billions of dollars in customer funds to back risky Investments that led to the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange um I Thought that Alam's financial position was risky and if the market went down, we could lose a lot of money I Was concerned about conveying that information to lenders and worrying about Alam media's Financial Health and recalling their loans. Um, so just it's all. this is what happens. People sent their money into FTX and without the knowledge of anyone.

Unless you were just like this small group of people, the money was being siphoned over to Alam where they were making bets to try to dig themselves out of bad trading holes. And it got worse. To the point that I mean the hole in the balance sheet was 10, 11, 12 billion. The guy most likely going to get absolutely nailed by the jury if I had to guess.

The only one that is seemingly standing up for him is the author Michael Lewis and I don't get why he's talking about how great the company is, how great San Bankman Freed is. how there's a San Bankman Freed size hole in the markets and we need someone like that. Also, it's coming out in the testimony that apparently Sam Bakman freed had aspirations to be president one day. um which? I hey I Guess if you have to be a crook to be a president, maybe he's still in the running, but he said his chance of being president was about 5% as in he thought he had a one in 20 shot of running the entire Us.

Truly crazy. Truly truly crazy. Uh, but that's kind of an update of everything going on in that situation. Let me bring it back to the Spy how are we doing this morning? Uh, so we do dipped at 8:30 on the hot PPI report we popped.

we dropped. we popped again. Uh, so we're just below where we were before the Pp report came out. so really, not much of a movement.

a little bit of com like a little bit of volatility, but honestly, even. uh, less than I expected. Who knows. Maybe they're just waiting for the quote unquote normal trading day for things to get started.

Um, good morning Piper hi Matt hey good morning, good morning, good morning. Uh yesterday I found myself in a little bit of a hilarious Twitter situation where someone asked me my opinion on Mullen and I was like oh, it's trash because it is trash I Mean there's no one in here who actually knows about trading and investing that thinks Mullen's a good idea because Mullen you know just this little thing year to date. Check this out. 99% drop.

That's how much Mullen is down year to date as in anyone who invested a mere 10 months ago, every $100 is down 99 and they're like dude, this one's so good. The company's so amazing it's about to go up when in reality you want to know actually what's happening here. Let's see if I can find this little. This is their CEO Oops Uh oh, Mullen's founder chairman and CEO David Missery LED Five One Two Three four five failed penny stock companies prior to Mullen Two had their Securities registrations revoked by the SEC two terminated their Securities registration and the last one merged with a speculative gold mining company M merged one of his prior entities as part of a three-way deal with an individual who was later charged with criminal Securities fraud and sentenced to 30 years in prison.

Prosecutors alleg at the merger deal involving Missies prior company was part of the scheme. The guy is an alleged criminal and more than being alleged with proof, he is a horrible, horrible, horrible business operator and even if you don't want to believe what H he did in his past, look what he's doing in his present, it's down 99.36% This is beyond trash. The only thing I wish that happened with Mullen is I wish I shorted it back here. That would have been a beautiful short.

The see all these reverse splits. the 1 for 25 reverse split the 1 for n reverse split. They're doing this to stop it from getting delisted and right now it was actually about to get delisted in midt. That's when the NASDAQ was like wow, you're trading too low and right now they're just trying to peel it so they don't get delisted.

This thing is about to get kicked off the NASDAQ It's going to end up trading on the OTC market for most likely whatever amount of time before it goes poof disappears Thanos snapped Into The Ether If you're investing in this, I Don't want you to lose money if you're in it I Hope the Hail Marry Miracle play somehow is caught in the touchdown Zone and you get your money back I Hope you make some money. but if you're looking at this right now and you're like I don't have anything to do with it should I be buying it because you're hearing random dipshit accounts on Twitter and Reddit telling you that it's good, Please do your research on it because it is beyond trash. Let's look up. let's look up it.

I Want to show you something that I found on it Mullen Uh, look at this. Look at this right Financials. Let's look at this. Stop bringing this up.

All right. Here's its income statement. Uh, and we'll do it per quarter. Uh, you can get this stuff on Seeking Alpha This is pretty much the only thing I use for Seeking Alpha Uh, so operating income? Uh, basically burning through 54 mil when it has parentheses on the side.

That's a net loss. So you can see this is the general: Trend Every single quarter losing 18 mil, losing 34 mil losing 73 mil losing 68 mil losing 54 mil. So you get the idea of its operating income. Its gross profit is not positive whatsoever.

Uh, and net income I Mean it's net income. Look at this. This is every every single quarter losing 4.8 mil, 611 mil, 376 mil, 114 mil, 308 mil. It it's just burning.

It's just burning cash. Absolutely burning cash. Um, so you could see that all on the income I If you look at its balance sheet, so keep in mind the last quarter it burned $300 million. It's balance sheet was actually better than I Thought it would be.

The total current assets was 255 mil and that's the current ones. And then total assets was 560 mil. So the way I see it, it's most likely going to get Dlisted first, but it has about two quarters of Runway Unless something happens. but within two quarters it's done, it's going to be deeply deeply in the negative.

It's going to run through all of its assets I Mean it's burning a the last quarter burned 300 million? Um, not even counting its current liabilities. Like, let's not even deduct that, which that's 200. No total liabilities 208 Total total assets: 56 So that's about. We'll call it 350 actually.

So if you do that math, that means it has one quarter. If we don't even consider its current liabilities. if we just look at it assets, that means it has about two quarters of Runway Uh I Like I Don't see what I Don't understand what people are looking at in this uh, net income right here. Just burning 308 million? That's in one quarter.

This isn't even yearly. This is per quarter. Uh, 38 309 Million Last quarter, the quarter before that, 115. The quarter before that 376.

It's just a fire pit. Like it. Literally it feels like they're just taking cash and throwing it into a giant giant furnace. And people last night were trying to tell me how this is like the next best thing.

So I See a situation where the math doesn't add up. If you look at its assets, look at its liabilities, look at its cash. Burn that math does not drive I look at the CEO I Think Okay, it's a bad situation. Do they have a leadership team in place that can turn the ship around? He's run five failed companies, one of which was associated with a dude who's getting 30 years in prison.

Misery The CEO of Mullen himself is an alleged criminal. This is not the leadership team that's going to pull it around. Uh I Don't want anyone to lose money I don't My reason for covering this this is not to laugh in anyone's face. If you're in Mullen you, that's a bad beat.

Well, it's just a beat I Can't say it's a bad beat because if you did Research into it, you'd realize that your odds were pretty low. Um I want it to turn around for you I Don't want you to lose money. but this idea of ignore all the negative only talk about the positive and trying to get other people to buy just because you're underwater and you want the stock to get pumped up. That's very very dangerous.

When the there's nothing quality about Mullon, it's down 99.4% year to dat and that's after a recent pop. This thing's on its way to just being Thanos snapped out of existence. It really really is. Um, it.

It's sad to say, but that's what the odds are saying. Obviously I'm not going to guarantee anything, but let's just look at the writing on the wall. It's not a good situation. it's it's not a good situation whatsoever.

So I don't know I would I Was very much laughing because some of the reasoning for it Like it. It's just a group of people who are incredibly uninformed about the market. They don't know about trading, They don't know about investing. They have absolutely no track record of any form of success in the market.

None of them are going to show you their accounts because they don't have positive Pnls. They're bag holders who are hoping that other people who are not yet involved are going to buy because they want you to pick up their bags for them Like that's the situation. Like that's what it is. So sell AMC and buy Mullen Hey do whatever you want.

Rum is down 60% on the Year How's that any better? What do you mean Joshua Is that a serious question? Do you mean a company that has no debt actually has $300 million in the bank has record-breaking profits. The last quarter is obviously somewhat associated in the world of politics. We're going into a political election year. Um, is that a serious question they have Revenue They have positive Revenue The that positive revenue is growing.

They have money in the bank, they don't have net debt, they're net ahead, and the numbers are improving quarter over quarter over quarter. Um, what? Like what? What are you? What are you talking about like I It's the kind of comparing apples to oranges. a wildly different situation. I mean I just showed you the numbers on melon on Seeking Alpha of how it was a dire situation and the numbers don't add up and Rumble because the numbers can always be better I think last time around it was either 21 or 25 mil in Revenue Um, like I said, about 300 mil in cash it seems if I like remember the numbers they're breaki