Welcome back to uh, another episode of the Mat Cor show. But I guess today it's more of the Matt Kors and Piper show where I'm Matt and this little this little bear right here. she's Piper and together we're going to talk about some stuff. We're going to talk about what's going on in the market.

We're going to talk about what's going on in the government. We're going to talk about what's going on in fantasy football. Um, also that intro that I pulled. uh, scratch that whole thousand giveaway thing that was from really long ago.

I used the wrong intro. uh and I really just wanted the bear that was on fire. That made sense, but that was from a while ago. so uh, awkwardness.

But anyway, scratch that. Scratch that. But hey, if you still want to hit the like button for just like Good Karma Good Vibes like totally an option to you what's up, what's up? Do you not like these people? Come on, you said you were going to be better behave this time. she just got up from her nap.

she's being a a little yeah. Richard you're right. she looks a little dismissive. Yeah, she's not.

Oh There She Goes time to go. That's going to fall all right. Well can't find any good help these days. even when she's the head of my my hedge fun here.

Uh, she just kind of does her own thing. so if she wants to return to the show, she could return to the show. but I don't know I have no control over her I have absolutely zero control over her Dude, she's just going nuts. She's not happy with how things are playing out in the market.

Alas I do want to talk all about that. but first, oh stop. that's my pen. Um, let's see how my teams are going to do this week.

Dude, my biggest mess up was this whole Joe Burrow draft Joe Burrow is my quarterback I'm both my fantasy teams and he's just not been performing. But arguably what's worse than my Joe burough pick is the fact that my running backs every single week thus far have under produced. So I I really just need like am. My receivers have been trying to keep it together and they're doing well, but just not well enough to undo the damage being done by the running back.

So oh, she might be coming back. In you coming back to the show, You coming back. You want to talk about it. Now she's mad at me cuz I kicked her out of the bedroom last night.

She was being like she was wide awake at like 2: in the morning just going crazy, just going absolutely crazy. You? Okay, now you want to talk about it. You want to share the research that you found on October with every oh nope she is not necessarily feeling that this time around. So we're going to do it with the cat on the table here.

We'll see how this do you want to play with the pen over here? Do you want to play with the pen? Do you want to play with the pen? p Yeah, that's what she was after. Hang on one second. All right. We'll give her that.

a bed to lay in, a bed and a pen. What else do you need to make a kitten happy Anyway, folks. Uh, pinned to the top of Chat in the description of the video is this bad boy. A newsletter that is completely free F Re E Four magical letters adding up to one awesome word.

but this is where you can get the newsletter. It's free Mac. Locals.com It's pinned to the top of chat. Is it pinned to the top of chat.

Did I not pin it? Oops here. I am already lying to for the second time in this stream. Uh, how do I do this? How do I do this goon newsletter here? We go here, we go here, we go there, we go. Oh there we go.

All right there it is. and there's a couple things I Want to go over in this of just like here. Here's the breakdown I Give you a review of what happened last week. What? I'm looking forward to the upcoming week, the major Market events, the major earnings that I think you'll care about, the seasonality for every individual day of the upcoming week, and then also a breakdown of the Zer DT option signal from the previous week.

This one's a little weird because a hedge was involved. Charts of Interest That's majorly what I'm going to be going over on this particular oh, she's back. Um, so we'll go over some chart stuff. uh I let you know how many times I cried in the shower Obviously very important things related to the world of the market, the economy, our trading accounts.

Um, so check that all out. I do see this question of did I see dumb money? uh I didn't because I actually want to finish the book first I started the book the early this morning I'm about halfway done and I plan on finishing the book today and then I'm probably going to see the movie Dum money this upcoming week, but uh I'm friends with Ben I think he's a cool guy. so I I don't know I just felt like I should read the book first. So my goal after this is not only to watch football and probably witness my fantasy team's Los losing, but most likely it's going to involve me also.

uh, reading that book and finishing that up. but I'm excited to see it I'll I'll be seeing it soon for sure. Uh, so welcome to Hell the start of October It's a brutal start, so just so you guys, maybe a little bit more of your bearing September Not the best month the overall: Market down 5% if you played it in the bearish direction. Congratulations! There was A plethora of opportunity to make some serious money off of shorting or buying puts if you were on the bullish side.

well that there that sucks. I don't know if there's anything I could really say that'll like make you necessarily feel much better. Uh, but ever since we had this Jerome pal fomc induced breakdown of the treend line, it died. Uh, obviously it bounced right off.

This downside Gap Fi the very first trading day of June we had a high of 42292 and look at that comes down punctures, it bounces right off. So uh, that was a nice profit. Target If you're playing to the downside and then obviously a nice place to go along if you wanted to play that reversion. Now, all these levels once again are in the newsletter.

You could get it here here. Let's check out what's going on on the Spy Actually, Um, I just broke down the levels I'll be paying attention to and I do. Okay, so this is kind of confusing because we have two pieces of information that are arguably contradictory on one side. From a statistical standpoint, the start of October the very first week, the very first week, and a little bit of change is actually historically very, very bearish.

The rest of October is actually so bullish that I know a lot of the worst events that have ever happened in the market occur in October so that gets a lot of people to believe that October is generically a bearish month. It's not. So yes, it is simultaneously true to say on in average in aggregate, it pays to be a bull in October, But it is also accurate to say the worst: Market sell-offs have also been been in the month of October so it's strange. But basically what you need to know is from a seasonality standpoint.

Generally, it pays to be a bow in October. Also, from a seasonality standpoint, it does not pay to be a bull in the very start of October. In fact, it's arguably it's like a top one, top two, top three, worst trading week out of the entire year. So what I'm saying is contradictory about it is the fact that we also just saved oursel off of this trend line.

We bounced right off the downside Gap fill. So there's various things are saying. Oh well. actually we have a little bit of a sorry that the cat's right here.

You can't see her cuz she's under the camera but she's currently on the keyboard. My apologies, we'll go back up. Uh, come on Piper what are you doing? So right here we bounc off a trend line from October of 22 to March of 23. That's this trend line right here and also got the downside Gap fill.

So if we do get a continuation above 432 433 I'd be looking to the upside Gap F at 43843. So obviously if you're watching this right now and you're thinking about it, you're like, okay, well, what could be the Catalyst that the market likes that actually pushes it up to that level? Well, just recently we got some good news: Congress averts US Government shutdown hours before deadline. So this is the big news as of yesterday and it is prompting honestly a lot more drama than I thought it would Market stress Rises over wild week ahead even without a shutdown. So right now, uh, if you go to weekend Wall Street it gives you the predicted move of Market open.

Remember the Futures Market doesn't open until 6 p.m. ET So right now, no aspect of the equities Market is open, but there are certain ways you could judge of where it would be opening up. And right now it's opening up allegedly half a percent. And once again, this is for the Dow.

So obviously the fact that we are not going to shut down when a lot of people thought they that we were, um, the market is interpreting that to be pretty bullish. Now before we talk more about that, I do want to remind you that right here: this selloff, the start of October uh, one of the most bearish periods of the entire year. Now, by the time you get about a third of the way through October just on a seasonal basis, the rest of October really until the remainder of the year is actually notably bullish, so we just need to get through this first portion of October. Generally, then the Bulls are favored.

obviously around Thanksgiving, there's some profit taking, maybe some tax hting, but really most of the trend when you get a bit of the way through o October till the end of the year, really, even running it until about halfway through January. Generally, the Bulls are a favored, so just want to give you the statistical breakdown generically of where we are now. Obviously, once again, if you want the individual days they are all here in the newsletter basically go through: Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday. So for Monday I do want to let you know that the Bulls are favored when the Market opens October 2nd.

Uh, a lot of the times you're going to see this phenomena of the start of the month favoring the Bulls and the reasoning behind it. The best explanation that I've ever heard is if you think about the common twoe period pay cycle, a lot of time people get paid at the start of the month, as in money flows into the market because a lot lot of people choose to put a portion of their paycheck into the stock market. It it's some reasoning I'm not saying it's the best, but on this day, historically the Bulls have won 61% of the time. The profit factor is 1.78 So obviously the buys of Monday is bullish, but just a quick snapshot of the remainder of the week.

Uh, obviously leaning bearish on Tuesday Very bullish on Wednesday. Then it goes neutral. Then it goes bearish. So that kind of actually aligns with what we were seeing in this of how there's a quick little jut up like right at the very very beginning of October and then from there it gets crushed.

And then after that period is when we start to see a little bit more enthusiasm this time around. Do I necessarily believe we're going to like get crushed? I Mean we could, but it's a really tough call out in terms of prediction right now because I would argue it's very, very very related to what does or doesn't happen in the world of Congress and budgets and all that. So let's focus a little bit more There big update as of yesterday causing way more drama than I thought it would Biden Signs 45-day funding bill to keep government open. This was very, very very close to the deadline.

and then this is the drama that it's now prompting McCarthy to face farri right attempt to OU him as house speaker. So what's going on here is what this article is referring to as far Right. Basically, within the GOP obviously McCarthy is a speaker of the house re representing Republicans. Well, there's some people that are very specifically angry that he was playing nice at all with the Democrats and that's the only way this got P passed without a government shutdown.

Was that a smart move? A not smart move. It depends on how you look at it. but there's a very, very good chance that the US government did shutdown that would have prompted the third ratings agency Fitch already did it S&P already did it. The last man standing was Moody's If we did shut down, there's a very good chance that the Moody's rating agency would have also followed suit with the other two and downgraded the US creditworthiness from AAA to AA plus not a good situation.

So it depends what your time frame is. and I guess how much into politics you are good or bad. Most of the time we live in that gray area that awkward in between of the truth is to like really the beholder of it. Kevin McCarthy's Embrace of a bipartisan deal to avert a US Government shutdown triggered a mutiny by farri Republicans to depose him as house speaker and the main name I want to highlight is right here Matt Gates So representative Matt Gates says he intends to out house Speaker Kevin McCarthy this week.

So hey, we're officially kicking off October The Fall season with lots of lots of drama Republican Rep Matt Gat said he intends to file a motion to vacate house Speaker Kevin McCarthy This week by week's end, will either not be a speaker or he'll be a speaker serving at the pleasure of. Democrats McCarthy Worked with Democrats to pass a short-term spending Bill narrowly averting a government shutdown in the final hours before last night's deadline. Democratic Representative AOC of New York said she would absolutely vote in favor of a motion to ask M. Marthy I found a couple more quotes on this that I wanted to share with you I do intend to file a motion to vacate against speaker McCarthy this week I Think we need to rip off the Band-Aid I Think we need to move on with new leadership that can be trustworthy.

Also, this is from Matt Gates This isn't personal. this is about spending. This is about the deal Kevin McCarthy made. So when you say it's about spending, it's I don't know I I Always just want to laugh whenever any government official talks about spending because first of all, I Think we can all agree that they are grossly overpaid and they're also particularly low quality at their job, folks.

The US government just passed 33 trillion in debt. We pay billions a day in a singular T We pay billions of dollars of just the interest burden and it's adding up adding up before. really, the new debt ceiling crisis was handled. they expected us to hit 50 trillion in debt by 2030.

Now the veloc of that is speeding up like they. This is the analogy I always use but it's perfect. They are drunken sellers when it comes to us spending money. It's the left, It's the right, It's the middle.

Our government is in a weird situation where they don't think about it like a business They think about is how do I get elected in the next cycle and a lot of the times you can use P taxpayer dollars or funny money from the FED to just do something that I really would summarize as buying votes. They don't think about the long-term trajectory of the government as a business because that's onto their mind. They think about the long-term trajectory of how do they line their own pockets and keep their own power so they're more than happy to spend someone else's money and then obviously McCarthy responded, bring it on, let's go over with it and let's start governing. If he's upset because he tried to push us into a shutdown and I made sure the government didn't shut down, Let's have a fight.

And then this is from other Representatives Byron Donalds He thinks McCarthy is quote unquote in trouble I'm going to be totally bum. There's a lot of trust issues in my chamber right right now, so obviously you have some people that are maybe happy the fact that the government's not shutting down cuz that's a bad look. You have other people upset that McCarthy the Speaker of the House representing the GOP did any dealings with the Democrats at all. There's going to be a lot of drama and I guess on that note I'm not really into the world of making any political predictions, but I would love to get your thoughts on it.

Do you think that McCarthy made the right decision? or do you think he made the wrong decision? I'm not saying by any means it was an easy decision and in my personal opinion I Just don't know how we get here to begin with. It's not like the fact that we're running out of money in terms of like budget budget approval that selling none of it's a surprise. We know many, many weeks, months, sometimes quarters in advance and yet it literally is always coming down to the final hours. I Just don't get it cuz like in any other job, if we had this level of underperformance, you'd get fired.

That's how jobs work. If you suck this bad at your job, you get fired and once again, I'm not talking about a specific person I'm talking about just like our political system as a whole, but in this particular issue I Kind of want to get your thoughts on it cuz I at this point I'm seeing it both ways but I know it's definitely going to be leading to a bit more drama, so feel free to share your thoughts. Other things to pay attention to this upcoming week is the fact that pal, the Chairman of the Fed, the guy who is really at the helm of Faking making fake money. he's going to be speaking at 11:00 a.m.

ET tomorrow Monday October Second, so obviously I'll be streaming it a little bit of a longer stream on Tuesday We're going to get the Jolts job report very important, important for the upcoming Fomc decision, which will be made in early. November on Wednesday we're going to get crude oil inventories and some PMI stuff and then also the non-farmer uh ADP report. Uh, come on Piper dude. hang on.

Sorry, All right, where were we at? Where were? Hey sh, hey, we're doing a show. You got to act professional. Uh. Thursday We're going to get the initial jobless claims and then on Friday we are going to get it's the first Friday of a new month, so that's when you get the unemploy employment rate.

So these are all the major macroeconomic events to pay attention to for the upcoming week in terms of earnings. We're not in earning season, but maybe you want to pay attention to McCormick Maybe you want to pay attention to Tillay just because there is some positive news in terms of the government and those of you who support Jazz cabbage. and then on. Thursday We're also going to be hearing from Levi so those are some major playouts.

obviously. all this stuff, the seasonality, the earnings, the economic events, all that. My breakdown. You could get this all for free I Put it into one place.

so so you don't have to jump around, jump around all that good stuff. The only other thing in here that I haven't really touched on yet is some of the charts of Interest. So we're going to do that. We're going to look at spy Q's Tesla Rivan and AMD and if there's any questions on this particular um, data point, we more than happy to dive into it.

but very quickly on the Spy we kind of went over it. You saw it before that if you connect this the bottom of October well instead of talking about it, why don't I just do it. Oops right here. You can see how even though it broke this trend line and sold off pretty hard, it got this Gap fill bounce off to this trend line.

It really was a nice profit taking opportunity if you were betting against the market and a pretty evident bounce. Uh, so this one worked out. Will it have the steam to continue once again? I Know the seasonality of October at least at the start is Sus. but I think what's really going to be pushing this to the upside or to the downside is going to be more so dependent on our government.

and this week around we also have the DP nonfarm payrolls. We have the unemployment report we have ISM So I think this as always is a much better time to be reactive and wait for the breakouts. The breakdowns, The fake out breakouts, the fake out breakdowns I think the game of prediction in this particular scenario and most of the time is a loser game. But anyway, obviously if it comes below and closes below 425, I'll be watching 423 and after that we have 416.

but if it gets above 433 I'll then be watching 436 followed by the upside Gap below 438 843 In terms of the cues, we had a fake out breakdown, so obviously it pushed just below this low in mid August of 35471 came down, they push it below, popped right back up, didn't get its upside Gap fill but I do believe that's close. I'll be looking for this this upcoming week of 36446 if it doesn't get there obviously on a reversion of 357 I'm back to watching 355 now. let's switch it up and talk a little bit about. EV Tesla Speaking of this, just Tesla Elon uh I forgot got to put it in the show but I do want to bring it up.

There's some murmurs, some some rumors, some chitchat in the world of Wall Street That bill Amman The Silver Hair Fox of Persan Square might be interested in bringing Twitter Elon's other business back to the public market. so well it's not Twitter now now it's X but I just want to bring that to your attention that it might be trading once again. But anyway, back to Elon's other business: Tesla Lower highs, higher lows Right now this is clearly just classic consolidation. What I'd be looking for on this is a little bit more of this situation.

Um, it. It's kind of mid-range right now. There is an upside: Gap Fill to 26246 There's a downside: Gap fill to 21758 right now I don't think there's we got the bounce the way the Spy the Qes did so holding above 235. Yeah, okay, that increases the shots of 262 if it cracks and goes below 235 240.

Well that's opening up the door to 27. so that one once again have to be a little bit more patient. one that might be more of a Here and Now play is Rivan. the other EV play that for a bit there everyone was talking about and now we're back to the situation.

where it went was really popular, not popular at all. Now people are once again talking about it. But anyway I just want to let you to this very very evident breakout right here. Clear trend line breaking above it.

Obviously if it can get above and hold above. oh come on, help me out. Uh, 2462 a break in hold above that in my opinion is going to be setting up a test of the start of this all the way up here at 28. Now there's a couple P ways you could play this if you like this.

if you like the EV sector. if you like that, like just talking about risk here. So if you like the fact that it got above and closed above this, Yeah, all right. maybe you want to be a bit more patient and wait for the break and hold above 2462 to play it.

Hey, that's all up to you. Another way you could do it is get in right away and make your risk literally just this low. If you want to be like hey, I'm only going to give it a little bit of wiggle room. To the downside, you could risk 2339.

If you want to be a bit more conservative, you could risk 20 if you're like okay, I'll just risk the recent low so it it's really up to you and what you're comfortable with what your time frame is. if you want to be buying sock here, if you want to buy leap call options, if you want to buy weekly call options that's obviously going to change the whole mathematical scenario of what's reasonable risk and what's reasonable reward More so I just want to call out that there is a breakout on pretty popular name so I just wanted to obviously show that to you another one that it's about to break out but it also get could get clearly rejected is what I'm seeing is right here is AMD so it's right at the trend line got smacked so I don't know if it's actually going to break out but whatever it does end up doing well. I Think we could be pretty confident that at least we're going to get movement either it's a fake out breakout and it gets smacked and you can play it to the downside or it does break out and then you could play to 112. You could play to 120 or all the way up to 132 more.

So I just wanted to put this in the chart cuz I think a movement is coming soon I don't know if it's to the upside or the downside, but it's basically decision time on AMD obviously wanted to bring that to your attention just cuz we're talking about all these arm had its IPO U pop but not doing the best ever since then Nvidia making a comeback of its own trend line, fake outbreak down, trending back up looking for the reaction around 445. If it gets back above that I'm watching 46. If it gets smacked, then I'm back to watching 420 on Nvidia I'm just trying to think of the most popular ones. paler.

We were kind of stocking the shoulder head shoulder, but that pattern was broken basically on the final day of trading when it got above and didn't close above. But it definitely got above the mid6 so the shoulder head shoulder not playing out and it never broke the neckline so there was never really a signal to get into it. Uh, Carana was one. I was looking to get above 56.

It just never did. It got right up to it and smack We never never got to push and close above it. So the entry signal never fired. So a failed cup and handle a failed well no you can't even say a failed inverse Head and Shoulders cuz it never broke the neckline but still kind of watching it.

I mean if it stays above 3750? uh, there might be a reversion back up here, but if it goes below 37, maybe another interesting opportunity. So those are some major charts. um I guess while we're here I did find some other things that I wanted to share with you and then after that if there's questions, comments, concerns, anything like that, more than happy to get into it. Shakira has been charged with tax evasion for the second time.

Spain charges pop singer Shakira with tax evasion for a second time and demands more than $7 million Spanish Prosecutors have charged Pop star Shakira with failing to pay 7.1 million in tax under 2018 income Shakira is allegedly Shakira is alleged have used an offshore company based in a tax Haven to avoid paying the tax Shakira is already due to be tried in Barcelona on November 20th in a separate case that hinges on where she lived between 2012 2014. In that case, prosecutors alleged she failed to pay $15.4 million in tax. So Shakira um fighting I Guess the Spanish equivalent of the IRS and I guess whenever it comes to this stuff I Just I Maybe not appropriate, but I'm just kind of siding on the fact that I think a lot of these governments love to overreach. so I don't know.

just wanted to share that. another crazy big money story. Bar stools Dave Poroy buys an Anet home for a record $42 million. You need to see pictures of this place because it is absolutely stunning.

BARC Barcel Sports Founder Dave Poroi has paid a record 42 million for a waterfront and Tucket compound with an underground tunnel. The off-market sale is a record for the affluent Island and for Massachusetts property record show the prior record is 38.1 million was set in June If you don't know about Dave Port of Barol or what's going on, he various times sold the company which made him rich and he recently bought back Barol for singular dollar. obviously bloating his wealth even more. That's how he's swinging.

this type of a thing located in the Monomoy is that how you pronounce it? Located in the Monomoy area, the property spans about 1.2 Acres with the direct Frontage of the Nantucket Harbor The transaction included an additional $2 million worth of furniture and other items. And look at this picture. Imagine waking up to that day in day out. I Mean you couldn't care about anything in the world that's just absolutely beautiful.

Let's see some other pictures here obviously inside referring to the 2 million worth of furniture. beautiful kitchen. Dude. I Guess it makes sense that the most expensive property ever sold in Nantucket or for that fact Massachusetts would be this be like of course you're going to have something absolutely beautiful so just wanted to share that because hey, it is a football.

Sunday and I know a lot of people know what's going on with Barol so just wanted to share that with all of you. now. any questions, comments, concerns: how much did he lose in AMC I think 700k. So when you're worth hundreds of millions of dollars, Yeah, 700k is brutal.

but I don't think he's necessarily like crying himself to sleep. He didn't lose the billions of dollars that Gabe Plotkin lost L he eats Pizza he does eat pizza is Tesla combining Ai and Quantum CPU is that Dojo Quantum AI uh I don't quite know Quantum AI I mean they're definitely using Ai and very Advanced CPUs Uh, but I don't know necessarily what Quantum CPU is new gold thesis. All right, let's bring up: Gold. Gold Gold Gold Gold Gold.

Whoa. So I talked a little bit about this. Um, well. this chart was a call out before and obviously as soon as it got below and closed Below on Tuesday the 26th, you could have taken a short-term uh, short position.

It seems like the next major level of support is going to be closer to Uh 1,00 we're at 1864 1810 is what I'd be watching. So this is a weird okay, let me talk about how crazy everything is. That's right now. So right now we we have stocks acting like we're in a recession.

If you haven't seen the stock market, this is the look of it. Stocks are getting hit, acting like we're in a recession. but on the flip side, oil is saying no. Obviously, we're not in a recession it.

So that's like one piece of information that doesn't really add up there. And then another thing that doesn't add up is if you see what's going on with yields or bonds. Basically, obviously yields and bonds are going to move inversely, they're acting like inflation is consistently sitting at 10% I Mean if you look at the US 10 y right here, this is the 10year yield. The 10year yield is ripping like we are like facing horrific, horrific inflation.

But then also within the market you have gold that's acting like inflation. There's no such thing as inflation like Gold's just getting absolutely pummeled and then I don't have the best chart to bring it up. but if you look at the world of real estate and what's going on, we literally just covered a story of the most expensive home ever being sold. Individual real estate personal real estate is ripping like rates are good under control.

But then if you look at corporate real estate that's absolutely imploding. So basically in those three different sections, there massive Cont: Contradiction. Massive contradiction. Massive contradiction.

So that's where we're at, folks. we're in the world of just. none of it adds up. Are we in a recession? Are we not in a recession? What's going on with inflation? What's not going on with inflation? What's going on with real estate? What is not going on with real estate? No matter the major major sectors you look in, the story adds up to this whole situation is Fubar If you don't know what Fubar means, you got to watch Saving Private Ry But it means up beyond all repair.

Uh, can you look at QQQ uh I Already did a more in-depth breakdown of it a little bit ago. but yeah, we had a fake out breakdown that led to a bounce. There's an upside Gap fill to 3 36446 I'd be looking for that to get hit this week, especially with the fact that the is not getting shut down. Uh, but how much more goes beyond that, like your guess, is as good as mine I'd be watching this trend line for a rejection, Maybe comes back here or the breakout leading it up to 370.

Um, what else do we have? What else do we have relationship advice for? Matt Get on the airl so the cat will know you are live and will behave accordingly. Ah That's a good suggestion I Do appreciate that. That's smart. That's smart.

Where did she go? She pieced out she went somewhere else. Um, uh, the start of stag flation. Well, that's tough. That's a tough call because there's not like the most data points and like usually a lot of mine are all like very very quantitative and like histories of hyperinflation stagflation.

Like yeah, there are stories about about that historically es especially within the past 100 150 years, but not an overwhelming amount of data points like it could be. It definitely could be. But I don't like I'm hesitant to like. Fully agree with it, just because of the amount of contradictions that we're seeing across the board.

Um, I Do not buy the concept of our Market is like rippity skippity doodah into the remainder of this year. I Think we are going to have some pretty choppy waters for roughly a year out. like I'm looking for things to finally settle down in 2024. U And obviously these are pred predictions.

Predictions are like honestly, kind of, just like in the world of the stock market. Really, what pays in the stock market is being reactive, being in control of your risk. Um, CU That's that's what has to happen. I Mean when you dive into the statistics surrounding hedge funds and the reason I'm bringing this up is because those are the people who do this stuff day in and day out.

There's teams of them, they have fancy schmancy degrees, they have the best quants. They have the best researchers. 50% of hedge funds underperform the S&P 500 as in half of them. One in two cannot beat the overall market and this is what they do day in and day out.

Another statistic is whenever you have, uh, a hedge fund that really crushes it, the chance of them also crushing it the very next year is pretty much all. So what does that tell you? It tells you the hedge funds that perform the best in an individual year. It's because they're in a certain theme. It's a thematic investing thing and then that theme takes off for one year, but generally does not continue the next year.

I Mean recently there's stories of people who for the longest time were long bonds or short bonds or whatever. and nothing ever happened until recently. Like there's there's hedge funds that have been short bonds for like ever. and they were losing money, losing money, losing money, losing money year after year after year after year.

But finally, bonds are getting crush and now they're making back all their losses for years of being wrong. Um, so when it comes to being predictive of what's happening and what's not happening even the start of this year, the reason the Market's up is pretty much because. well, you could argue this, but it's somewhere between six and eight different equities. Without those like those big big gainers, the market would be up somewhere between 1 and 2% on the year.

Right now, it's still green on the year, but it's very much because of a sub sector of equities. And then those equities are up because of the AI hype bubble that we got at the start of this year. So that type of stuff to predict it? It's kind in my mind. it's a Fool's game to attempt to do that.

I Think a much better thing to do is be if and this is once again your time frame. If you have a long-term investing. Horizon buy the market set and forget. There's been no period in the history of US markets where you could pick one day.

You could pick any day at random and fast forward 15 years. There's no one day example that you would be down money. and yeah, whatever, that might happen in the future. I Don't know.

but to this point as I'm talking to you right now, you cannot pick a singular day in the market and then compare that day to exactly 15 years ahead and the market would be lower. Really, if you ask me about like Financial advising and all that stuff I think it's in terms of market. now. if you have a financial adviser who is setting up trusts and your kids college funds and getting you the right business, this that the other thing.

Okay, I agree with that, but going to a financial adviser to have them pick you stocks. To me it is the biggest scam ever. If I were a financial adviser, all I would do is say okay and then just go buy them the Spy I would Advance it a little bit by selling call Premium against the Spy But to me, when you have a financial adviser picking stock for you, the the odds tell us that they're as shitty as the next guy and to pay any form of a fee when they're basically putting you in the overall Market when you could literally do that on your phone on your computer within seconds I don't understand that aspect of the service whatsoever. Um, so just wanted to I Guess let you guys.

I I Don't know what started me on that particular rant. Uh, but that's where we're at. Renaissance does well every year. Well Renaissance is not a financial adviser people like you and I cannot put our money in Renaissance.

Renaissance has absurdly good returns, but it's also one of the most secretive organizations in all of Wall Street And and it's not like the big fund within Renaissance that people talk about is The Medallion fund that's been closed for years now, but that's highly highly. Advanced Quantitative trading. Uh, that no one else on Wall Street has been able to reproduce. But also, if you look at the company I think they have three or 400 employees and something like almost half of them have Phds.

It is a very stem specific PhD specific Corporation Um and once again, they're not really making predictions the way we would think of it of like oh, like this company's Gr, blah blah blah. they're just doing hardcore like Data Mining and really number crunching and they're basically looking at it as like a game of blackjack of you bet more and you bet I guess more aggressively when the deck is stacked in your favor and then you extrapolate that out over a long period of time. Uh, how much of an influence do you think the Chips Act or the inflation Reduction Act are helping boost the economy? Um I mean there's been actually various studies done on it and the one I know off the top of my head more so relates to the inflation reduction act. But Wharton A highly like I guess touted respected business school.

the inflation reduction act they think has zero impact on inflation. Um, and if it doesn't have zero, they actually think it might slightly increase inflation. So like even that. That's just like another political sham.

It's for them to be like oh, we're going to call it the inflation reduction act when it has actually nothing to do with inflation and depending on how you look at it, it actually might increase inflation. Is that a buffalo shirt? Yeah dude, it's a buffalo shirt from like the 80s. Just I don't know. It's kind of like a Gone With the Wind type of a Vibe I think I might start only wearing vintage clothes from the 70s or the 80s.

Um, what is your least favorite ice ice cream? My least favorite ice cream. If you gave me a vanilla ice cream that had like caramel in it I'd be pretty upset. uh I wouldn't be. It's still good though.

like in the world like I like all ice cream but in the world of ice cream that would be like a left leaning one cuz there are examples of where it would be good. like if you put that on like hot apple pie that would be amazing. but if I just had a bowl of ice cream if you gave me like some bland ass vanilla and if you put caramel in it cuz I feel like a lot of the times the caramel they put in ice cream is super low quality caramel. uh not necessarily a fan of that.

not necessarily the biggest fan of that. it's just I I find like the It doesn't like mix well there something's off with it unless you are Citadel Well Citadel crushes it. But really what crushes it is their Market making operation which is not not a hedge fund. But yeah, they're the stats of high- Performing market makers.

That's pretty consistent year-over year because they effectively I can't they don't like from a legal definition, have a monopoly, but they have a lot of control within a sector and a lot of lobbying and rules and regulations are made in their favor because they were the first one there majorly doing it. So then they had the money to continue to promote their own business in certain legal regulatory ways is that ensure that they stay at the top. We're saving for a car to buy for a year from now I am definitely not the uh, expert on cars. I Do know that used cars are coming down quite a bit, but when I look at just everything right now like rent, mortgages, cars, generic Goods eggs, all that type of thing I Mean we still have inflation.

We're at least progressing in our battle against inflation. But even like just read the tea leaves, folks, all these companies laying off, people, firing people, uh, reductions, lowering their guidance I Think we're heading in for a rough period And I Don't say that as like a doomsday, blah blah blah like oh, we're all screwed No, no, no, no, no, But the market does naturally EB and flow and you could argue that I Guess synthetically the government really? the FED pushed the market to an all-time high when we were locked inside adding to our debt printing funny money like no other. our GDP was at like a local Minima that that type of stuff doesn't come without repercussions. and I think we're going to see some of those repercussions within the coming year.

Um, we know that the FED is actively trying to get unemployment up an entire percentage point. We know mortgages are now above 7 8% We know that rent College goods are all outpacing wage increases. There's a lot of little things that suggest to me cracks in the structure. and with that being said I don't think that this means it's going to come down.

I'm not calling for like an' 0809 scenario I'm not calling for a depression I'm not calling for the tech bubble blow up. But I do think that like this is what happens when you go so long not realizing that you need to take your medicine. and uh, I know this is by none of your decisions or my decisions unless like Yellen and pal are listening to the stream. And if you are listening to the stream, you need to know that I think you're a piece of who's actively lying to the people who you're allegedly supposed to help as in like people within the US Um, but I'm assuming that they're not watching right now.

Uh, we're just. this is I guess in my book, a travesty because we're never properly taught about Finance in school which allows on many different levels crazy financial decisions to be made for us that we're just unaware of. and this could be the highest level of the President and Biomics And what all that means, it could be the next level down at the Treasury Secretary and Pal and the Federal Reserve Or it could be even lower level of Wall Street and market makers and proper investing and the way they Wall Street illicitly in my opinion, pulls things off. We're just never taught on any level of that.

So when you have a populace that's uninformed, that's how you get these rampant cases. and I don't I'm not saying this from a legal perspective, more of just like I Know a human perspective. That's how you get this. like evil corrupt that happens is because people are uninformed that it's happening and they don't know the signs on the wall that are telling you something is happening.

And that's how it goes. On and on and on and on and on and on. And really, these people in power and also specifically the government, They're betting on the populace remaining uninformed because that's how they can continue to get away with their. The biggest benefit for them would be people people remaining uninformed even like this.

The previous thing of calling it the inflation reduction act. Well, that sounds good. It sounds really good and the average person doesn't even know the name of it. But the next level of person, they know the name and they're like oh okay, that sounds like they're like really fighting inflation and then it takes like that little small nerdy group of people or just people like myself who really like to argue.

They're like it has nothing to do with inflation reduction. It's just a stupid naming thing. and the fact that our government thinks it's appropriate to name things in that manner to basically demonize the other side who doesn't vote for it. It shows you that it's all smok and mirrors.

It's a game of theatrics. It's not a game of actual I Guess governing. It's not a game of really trying to represent your constituents and bring your locality, whether it's the entire Us or as small as just your little Township to the next level. What we have are the people for whatever reason, and we could argue about this until we're blue in the face.

But the people who attain the high highest level of power or really any power at all. But to get to that highest level, good people seem to not go there on a moral perspective. It does not seem as if we're in this situation where the people with the most power are people any of us would consider to be moral. On the left, the right, the middle.

It doesn't matter and the reasoning for that is maybe they have better things to do with their life. They realize that it's a job and like I don't want to deal with it. Maybe they do like it, but then the only way to ascend to those levels of power. They end up either changing as a human to fight the battle or they don't want to change and they end up losing the battle cuz everyone else in the system is absolutely messed up.

but this like it's a clown show. it's an absolute clown show. Who was it? Uh, the CEO of Blackstone is that Larry whoever the CEO of I think his name is Larry Frink um Blackstone Anyway, recently had commentary of what's going on with the just really the bond situation but the overall economy and they asked him if he thought he would ever run for Congress or president and he said no, he's too young. the dude's 70 years old, he's 70 years old and he was arguing that he's too young to run for president of the United States dude, if you're 70 years old I mean I don't know necessarily where the cap should be because I'm not a biologist I don't know about the deterioration of brain and where the real fall off is, but I could bet my left nut that if I got to make the age cap, it would definitely be below 70 now obviously to come up with my exact answer I would go do research and like understand like brain I Guess functioning the percentage fallof the like efficacy of whatever percentage usage of your brain.

yeah, I would do some research but I guarantee you you're not uh, as much of a spring chicken as you are at 70 as you were at 50. It's crazy. Uh Black Stone Black Rock black water. Yeah, there's two black.

Wait did I Well, black I know, no actually I don't know the difference. Well I know I don't know which one's which but I know one is like a murder mercenary group and the other ones are on. Wall Street Um, but there's something in there. Something in there problem is that humans are living longer than ever.

We used to live till like 50 years old. Yeah, that's actually causing a lot of problems such as Social Security when they made that the average age when you got Social Security it was like 62 63 and the average person was getting it for like two or three years. Uh, now when your average AG is um, depending on where you look upper 70s, lower 80s like yeah, like just there are certain advancements that are causing strain elsewhere. I'm still wrestling with Jeff Schneider's explanations that have to do with dollar denomination debt created offshore internationally outside of the Fed's control.

Uh, I would have to look into that myself. I Can't it? I like I just don't know off about the top of my head. So I don't want to, necessarily, um, speak erroneously on that. but I guess in terms of overarching things, uh, understand that all inflation is man-made whether it's here in the US or in Argentina or wherever inflation is made when you are pumping up your supply as in making more money.

Inflation doesn't have to quote Unquote naturally occur, especially when we have a completely Um controlled uh, dollar. completely controlled by the centralized bank. They get to decide if we have more or left. So the FED is deciding if we have more or less inflation.

Like, without a doubt, um, in ter. I'm trying to Dollar dominated debt created offshore. If it's created offshore, Inherently, that's not our debt. Um, they other countries or whatever businesses might be doing their business dealings in like the dollar.

But if they're creating debt more or less, that still doesn't change the debt of the Us as a country. But I'll look into it like I said. I I Haven't heard that explanation. Uh, so I'll I'll give it a read or listen or whatever it is.

Why do you have toilet paper in the background I Don't That thing that's a candle this is smells like compound interest. It's a candle that smells like money. Money Money Money money. Um, does inflation happen when we use credit cards? Uh, nope.

Once again, inflation happens by the government. Um, that's just spending with credit cards. Uh, when inflation is very much when our Central Bank is putting more money into the total system. Uh, credit cards.

That's just jacking up credit card debt. Speaking of which, we, uh, credit card debt is officially above $1 trillion with the interest payments now at a Skyhigh 25% Uh, that's another little ticking time bomb in my opinion. Basically Jeff Ner describes that since International Banks are more in control of dollar money supply over the Fed for me, it's a big time shift in overall macro. Outlook Um, but I would argue that they aren't I don't agree with the banks are more control of dollar money supply over the FED I don't agree with that that part of it would be and like one.

I know it's tough because you're limited on like how much you could say in a singular message and everything. but I I mean if you look at our money supply, it it is the fed that's the what. the FED is controlling why the headphones uh I thought I was going to to play some clips but I decided against that. So here we are and also with this it feeds my voice back into me.

So I can tell if like my mic's too low or not like if I have if I don't have it I'm talking. sometimes people are like the mic's too loud, it's too low, blah blah blah uh. been a sub since 33k. Thank you for all you do.

Hey I appreciate that very very very kind of you. Well folks, that's pretty much what I have for you for right now. uh I Do want to let you know that there was an interview posted yesterday with the CEO of public and he talked about what it was like running a brokerage during the craziness of GameStop Gme. Um, it's called dumb money whatever that's the thumbnail it's up on YouTube it's up on Rumble so feel free to check that out.

It was about like 25 30 minutes I I Think you're really really going to enjoy to just hear some of the crazy stories of like I said, operating a brokerage during honestly the craziest retail trading like development of all all time. Uh, we have some cool interviews coming out this week, but the major thing is if you want that newsletter that I was referring to, it's free. It's pinned to the top of chat it's in the description of the video. Um, but check it out, it's free F You get my breakdown of the previous week.

What? I'm looking towards the upcoming week in terms of earnings, macroeconomic events um, all the seasonality and some like trading review type of stuff. but I think you're can to enjoy it anyway. That's what I have for you now. I'll catch you tomorrow morning 9:00 a.m.

bright and early I Hope you have a good one Whatever Football team you're rooting for Hey I hope that they win too I Appreciate all the Good Vibes I appreciate your time. Thank you thank you thank you. Catch you later Peace out.