Folks folks, folks, it's not a joke anymore when you call me thick cores I mean let's let's take a look. Can you guys see this? Can you see these these ham? these ham Hawks these thighs. You see these. Uhoh that's some.

that's some girth to it folks. these are some serious ham Hawks of thighs. That's the left view right there. these are.

These are not skinny jeans. A lot of people accuse me of trying to be in my girlfriend's like jeans I don't these are normal I don't know. like Lucky Brand or something I just have big thighs I'm thick I'm just trying to spread a little bit of awareness of like thick thigh. Fashion matters too.

Okay I I See a lot of the fashion industry. it's going for all these skinny thighs and people who have what is it like called thigh gaps and all that. Hey I think we need to produce our own anti skinny thigh fashion movement? That's just my thoughts on everything. So I'm just trying to speak to the 80% of you who come here for my fashion.

Invite: what's up Nerds: Hola mimig Go kumu esta I Actually don't know what I'm saying at the moment in time, but I am starting to believe that Piper only actually understand Spanish rather than English So I'm trying to brush up on my du lingo so I can properly communicate with my cat but hey, hope everyone's having a good one. Literally seconds before this I was watching the what Was it The ending of the Jets Patriots game came down like I kind of want I don't want to ruin it for anyone who's maybe watching it on a slight delay, but it comes down to a last second. Hail Mary and I guess I Really don't care about ruining it anymore because you should be an adult and watch sports when they happen in real time. Uh, they didn't get it but they could have cob like it was right there.

It was a deflection and he could have just like if his like foot didn't kick out on the astro turf the Jets could have won that game. That would have been absolutely crazy. Um, but alas, Another Sunday is here where the Eagles are looking good. they're playing tomorrow Penn State One But my fantasy teams are just getting absolutely destroyed.

my I I just I can't do anything with my running backs. My running backs are just refusing to get me a a single point. In a literal sense, they're getting me more than a a point, but in a figurative sense they're They're clearly not getting me more than a point. So I don't know I Just like I'm looking at my numbers right now here.

I'll show them to you guys before we really get into all the crazy stuff. I'm in two different leagues. my projection in this one. um I'm going against another loser.

We're both 0 and two so it'll be interesting 104 projec him versus 103 so it's going to. Currently playing two. Yet to play three both like so we're getting somewhere. It's just right now what the Dolphins are doing to the Broncos and which is oddly enough, like the two quarterbacks like of course I have the Broncos while he has the Dolphins uh, it shouldn't be legal I I mean I think there's going to get like there's going to be some charges pressed for how much the Dolphins are currently manhandling the Broncos but this is what I'm talking about my running backs I I just cannot get points I need Josh Jacobs to absolutely destroy tonight.

um uh, we have I guess the Patriots like they're not playing well tank my wide receivers I mean Devonte Adams usually produces tank Dell I have no idea who he is but I'm liking how many points he's getting me. um and we just start with the kickers. it's just I'm getting this one I think I'm going to win pretty handedly. Yeah, 147 versus 128 yeah.

Kurk cousins did all right I just switch out Bur I had Burrows but he's on the injury reserve. Uh what do we have going on my tight and not really looking the best? but Tyreek Hill is a monster. an absolute monster I guess before I really get into it is there from you guys? Uh I I've been having a little bit of luck lately with some of my sports gambling so I want to turn it over to you guys really really quickly. Any any hot Sports gambling tips for me that I need to place before like the next round of games I Understand that time could be of the essence.

so is someone in here feeling real froggy, real frisky, feeling like they know what's going on in the World of Sports gambling right now because if you do hook your boy up I'm I'm feeling lucky I'm feeling lucky I'm feeling lucky I'm feeling lucky about it. so uh, I'm going to I'm going to wait for the first person to tell me. always bet on Messi Well, that's a different form of football but I Also, don't disagree with that one. Hawks got stomped.

Yeah, they did Fuzzy Penn State Crushed them, crushed them, crushed them, crushed them Drew Aller somehow putting it together I Don't really get why. Like if you ever listen to the announcers of a Penn State game they commonly refer to how like we're good at producing quarterbacks. but I don't think anyone at Penn State actually agrees with that. Like whenever you think of Penn State football you don't think of quarterbacks like pretty much ever like yeah, we have some okay quarterbacks, but like I just the announcers.

They like they get into it and they're like, oh, just look at the series of quarterbacks they've had. We we just we're just not a quarterback school. We just don't attract top tier quarterback Talent Like obviously we've had some great linemen. we've obviously had some phenomenal running backs such as Saquon.

Barkley Uh, we've had some good defensive players I mean the Cowboys right now are lighting it up with some penate players and I I just this concept of like we somehow like create and produce amazing quarterbacks I just I mean I'm a pen Al love and I support pen football but gez I like even that I feel like it's a little bit of a reach, but whatever. whatever, whatever, whatever. So another week is here where I just I just can't put it together I Just want one week where I win my fantasy leagues Penn State wins and the Eagle win I need to go four for four and thus far this year it's the teams are playing well. It's just my fantasy teams I Just dude, my running backs are just screwing me man.

I Don't know what to say about it, but alas, we're here. We're here. we're here. And it's not just my fantasy teams that are currently getting destroyed.

If you haven't looked at the market, it is clearly getting destroyed. We had what is referred to as a bullish pennant I Get it I Get it I Get it. I Get it. If you're there watching me right now, you're like who comes up with these names? The names that we have right now are stupid.

Like we could come up with like way cooler names. like instead of calling this a bullish pennant, it could be called like an iron rapor or like something cool like the iron. Raptor 3000 Like we had the opportunity. Like the same way when you're naming a pet, the world is your oyster.

You can name it whatever you want to. and then all of a sudden we're just like pen it. It's just like a really nerdy way to say a sideways triangle. sick brother call Laura Crof Tomb Raiders We going after the new pennant in the market like it's it's just boring.

So anyway, this technical structure. it's building up, building up, building up obviously in a bullish? Direction Then you have lower highs, higher lows forming a triangle. That's where it gets. Bullish pennant.

That's why it gets its name. In terms of technical patterns, this is is actually one of the least reliable ones. Bullish pendants. Bearish pendants.

They do work more than 50% of the time, but not much more than 50% of the time. I Made a whole video doing the statistical likelihood of all the major technical patterns and this is actually the least reliable one. And right now on the daily chart of the S&P 500, we're seeing how it did not continue in the bullish. Direction which most people bet that it does.

and obviously this time around they got screwed. Little bit of a warning shot was fired on Tuesday September 19th We came down below. but then as you can see from the giant Wick here it fought its way back up. We opened up even higher on Wednesday and remember this is the Fomc day.

Results came out at 2 p.m. they decided to not change the interest rate. On top of that, we got the Sep report, the summary of economic projections, and that's why you're probably hearing a lot of hubbub about higher for longer and that's they're talking about the FED fund rate. So anyway, that wasn't so good.

Uh, obviously higher than expected as in the FED fund rate and then also Jerome pal the chairman of the FED daddy pal. basically the guy who during The Rona period was like just money. printer goes bur. He's like let's just make money out of everywhere.

Print Print print print Print Print Print Print print print print print print and he caused the market to go really really high. Well over the past year year and a half two years he's been changing his tune ever so much because he's like wow, inflation is like super duper bad Brethren and we should probably fix that. So anyway, the Market's like oh wow, that was a lot more hawkish. It was a lot more uh, I guess restrictive in terms of monetary policy than the markets thought that we would actually have.

So we opened up. We sold pretty freaking hard. We broke below the previous low. Then things got even worse.

This led to a gap down. This sold off. We couldn't even hold the support of the Friday August 18th low and then we kept selling. Finally caught oursel at the low on Monday June 26th and then the close out the week we were looking good on Friday About 3/4 of the way through the day we were looking good here.

Let me bring up more of like this 10 15 minute chart. uh we were looking good about until 100 p.m. and then it got crushed and everyone's like oh it's just a fake out, it's a Friday There's a lot of Gamma exposure. There's a lot of Delta exposure so anyway they're just shaking people out, starts to bounce back up, people are like ah, look it like just kind of a reverse vomi if you follow.

um sad at all. But anyway, it started, then vomiting again and I think this caught a lot of people by surprise. So obviously quite a bit of selling going on in the market. And I'm going to explain this in more detail in a second.

but just because I have it up and I don't want to be the person who's like burying the lead if we don't quickly recover from here. my next Target is just below 426. but obviously that's if we just don't recover above like 430. Basically, seeing how hard of a sell-off this is, it's not the most unreasonable thing to expect that there's some sort of what's referred to as mean reversion of just just like, kind of like a rubber band like you go way way too far in.

One Direction It's reasonable to think okay, like let's just come back more of equilibrium to really find out where price action wants to go. But once again, if we go below 430, hold below 430. I'm looking for 426 If we get above 434, especially if we close above 434, well then I'm looking at this upside: Gap fill of 43843. So I'm just going to mark that out so we have it so you guys can kind of see the levels that I'm looking at.

But anyway, I'm going to get into this in more detail: I'm obviously going to go over some of the charts and we can I'm more than happy to break down whatever you guys are interested in, but there are some interesting things that I want to share with you. Uh, before we get into all that stock flash recession. Warning: As trouble spreads to Industrials some investors dismiss the declines as noise in year of gains, earnings growth could matter more than interest rates. So first of all, this little tidbit right here: some investors dismissed the declines as noise in year of gains.

If you are dismissing it, you're a dumb Dum you are the top graduate of Sil Go. University Just before this, I was reading an interesting breakdown of what's really keeping the market up. the Super Seven. You know how at one point this year everyone was talking about Apple Nvidia Microsoft Meta blah blah blah like the top seven tech stocks that are just rippity, skippity dudah.

Well, if we didn't have those right now in the market, the S&P 500 would only be up 4% So when we're talking about oh yeah, like we're we're still up. The gains are still there. Understand the gains in the market are very much because of a small group of companies that basically benefited from an AI boom, an AI hype cycle. Some you could kind of refer to it as like a bubble esque scenario.

We would only be up 4% We would basically just be net net on the year without the whole AI crate. So I just want to um, I guess comment on this when I read I was like come on Bloomberg come on. Bloomberg Like be a little bit more like honest, be a little bit more straightforward about this kind of a thing. any whoel us.

small cap industrial stocks are dropping typically signals of a recession. But in the year where Equity equities have already beaten expectations, some investors are dismissing the moves as little more than noise. For now, yeah, they shouldn't be dismissing it. The S&P 500 Industrials index peaked on August 1st and is down about 8% since then, teetering on a correction after several major US carriers cut their profit outlooks for the third quarter on a sudden jump in oil prices.

Now, before you guys freak out in chat, you're like Matt What gives you the right to talk about the market? Peing: You don't have a fancy smashy degree. All you have is a camera that you yell into professionally for your job. You're not some sort of Wall Street guy. You're not some sort of person with all the certificates.

Pass This test. That test. In fact I've seen your streams. You're not even that good of a Trader Hey, you're not wrong.

but I do believe I can talk about peing cuz I peaked I peaked in high school. So just as a person who's been through this process before I look at my own life and I notice that I peaked and I'm just kind of applying that same rhetoric to what's going on in the market. and I can I'm be like, well, the way I Peak I could see that the market peaked. so it's not really from a financial standpoint.

it's more from just a peing standpoint. I Hope that makes sense. but anyway, that's where we're at. the small cap Russell 2000 Index has lost more than 11% from its July 31st closing High Roughly twice the decline in the S&p500 index over the same time.

steep drops in small cap and Industrial stocks typically occur when the economy is in recession. no sure lock. Well anyway, what I found interesting was this breakdown that I think actually feel free to screenshot this, feel free to use it 6 months before recession starts. Guess what? Like jumps up energy Consumer Staples Materials Healthcare But obviously the biggest gainer is energy and real estate is the biggest loser and this is right before recession starts.

Well I Don't want to bust anyone's bubble here. Uh, but have you guys seen what's going on in crude? Uh, definitely a giant jump as of recent really getting going in late June of this particular year. So obviously there 6 months after recession starts. So okay, maybe we know we're in a recession.

If we see energy taking a bit of a hit, it drops 5% if Healthcare starts to spike, that could be an interesting sign that we're actually maybe in a rocky situation. So between these two, the six months before recession starts and the six months after recession starts Healthcare positive in both scenarios. Now, if you want to check what's going track what's going on in the healthcare industry, you'd be looking at XLV So obviously for roughly that June time period just looking at the start of June right here. Uh, it is up.

Granted, not by much We, but we are in the green. I'm just kind of going through the data wanting to share that with you. And then obviously we have these two columns that we could look at 6 months before the recession ends and then 6 months after the recession ends. So basically if we're just looking at energy well before we see energy Spike but then it get dropping into the recession and then right before it ends also continuing to drop and then maybe maybe signs that were out of it when energy spiking again.

So just looking at this energy category, um, if we were going back to healthcare, well, green green Green 6 months after the recession ends actually then going red. So this could give you kind of a little bit of an idea of a Playbook of the industries to be paying attention to depending on where you personally believe we are in the cycle. or you could see what's going up and down and then just kind of match it up to the best of your ability. Be like okay, maybe this is the stage that we're actually at.

But also another one to point out is really until we're out of the recession the Big R W That's the only time that real estate actually goes positive. So uh I'm not the biggest real estate person out there. but if you're paying attention to various reats negative, negative, Negative: If you start to see that turning back around, that could be an optimistic sign so just wanted to give this to you once again, feel free to screenshot it. I Thought it was interesting so just wanted to call it out.

Now obviously when we're talking about the big scary RW A common thing To think about is gold. G L D Chinese Gold buying is driving a paradigm shift in the Boolean. So the question is, if things are getting Rocky Should we be reverting to a safe haven asset? One of the most common ones is gold. Historically, if you look at what goes on in terms of financial advice and financial Theory When things are rocky, people typically go over to Gold The question is, will that happen again? Is it still, uh, a reasonable, accurate mindset to do that or has the time passed? What determines the price of gold for much of the past decade? The answer was easy: The price of money.

the lower rates fell, the higher gold climbed, and vice versa. Obviously an inverse relationship. Gold is the quintessential anti-d dollar, kind of like the anti-hero but more nerdy. and in the world of finance, a place to turn for those who distrust fiat currency.

So it seemed natural that prices would rise. In a world of low interest rates and cheap dollarss. Or when rates went up, gold which pays no yield naturally became less attractive, sending prices tumbling. So basically rates up well, we know if rates are going up, gold a little less popular.

Well, not anymore. As inflation adjusted rate soared this year to the high since the financial crisis, bullion has barely blinked. real yields. Now this is actually pretty interesting, measured by the 10-year treasury inflation, protected securities or tips jumped again on Thursday to the highest since 2009 while spot Gold nudged down a near .5% the same day.

The last time real rates were this High gold was about half the price, so remember inverse relationship, but that relationship might kind of be on its way out. The unraveling of the relationship between gold and real interest rates could be a paradigm shift for the precious metal, leaving investors struggling to calculate its fair value quote unquote. In a world where the old equations don't seem to apply, it's also raising questions about if and when the old Dynamic might reassert itself or whether it already has just for a new base. So what's holding the prices up? We've talked about this a lot and I think we went into a lot more detail when Russia had first invaded Ukraine and right there we were looking at some of the financial changes on a global scale of what was going down over the past decade and there was this: maybe you guys remember it, maybe you don't.

But for a bit there, the hot topic to talk about in the world of Finance on the global scale was the dollarization of the world. And basically we saw some interesting money movements between really Russia China and somewhat India as well, where they were all offloading US Treasury bonds and loading up on their own supplies of the precious metal gold. So my point in bringing all that up is that really never stopped. We're seeing these other countries unload us treasuries, continuing to load up gold, and this has been going on.

It's not a recent phenomena like a decade, a decade and a half. And let's point to a combination of voracious Central Bank buying led by China and investors that are still betting a US economic slowdown will be good for gold, even when the regular Playbook says it's time to sell. Now obviously folks, I don't have a crystal ball I don't even know what I'm doing for dinner tonight and you're going to come to me and be like, well, where is gold going to go I don't know, 5050 up or down, whatever one you pick, flip a coin really to make money in the markets? Understand that? Yeah, you might have some thort of sort of thesis for medium long-term play out of course. but it all comes down to your risk management.

The better you are at managing risk, you're always going to be in that realm of being about 50% right? I wouldn't Focus your energies on saying okay, how can I go from 50 to 55 to 60 to 65 Because obviously every percentage point you go up it it's not linear it, it's actually exponentially more difficult to be that much more ripe. But what you could do and on a relative basis it's easier is just get better at controlling your risk. And really, that's what's going to make you profitable. Uh, your accuracy like I don't know I I've gone off on tie raids on this on my normal Monday to Friday streams, but don't be focusing that much on like okay H How do I go from 80 to 90 to 95? and I get it? I get it.

It's because every single Furu influencer out there is selling systems that have 80 90 95% accuracy 99% of the time I'm always right and it's basically just like a non-comedic version of The Anchor Man and it's BS You can be right 99% of the time and still lose money if that 1% of the time you lose. If it's catastrophic, well, all your money from the 99% winning goes away. I've shared this in more detail, but the most recent hedge fund that I thought was interesting that I like shared was this hedge fund in I believe South America maybe it was South Africa South something definitely below where I live and they were right about 25% of the time. But the reason they were profitable is that quarter of the time they were right.

Their returns were 10x their actual losses, so they were actually greatly profitable. If someone tells you the accuracy of their methodology, their system just how they view the markets understand that's only half the battle. The other half of the battle is knowing your average wind side size when you do win, and then also knowing your average loose loss size when you do lose. So when someone just telling you accuracy understand that like I'm not saying it's wrong to know that I'm just saying that's literally only half the battle if someone's telling you the accuracy of their methodology but they have no idea of whether on like a ratio of wins to losses of like the size like of what they're risking or they can't tell you the dollar amount.

Understand that it it's some sort of like charlatan. I Would very very much argue. but anyway, gold worthwhile to pay attention to. Just to give you a bit more context, GC is the gold Futures and it's been kind of moving nowhere I mean recently from November of 22 up until June of 23 higher highs higher lows.

Obviously the trend line broke down came down, try to make it fight back up, fake out breakout here in Late July Actually oddly enough, where the market had its own topping point and then sold and right now obviously it it is consolidating, it is strongly consolidating. We are seeing lower highs, higher lows and is just getting ready for Mov. so I just wanted to put it on everyone's radar because markets naturally expand, contract, expand, contract and this has been a huge contraction making me believe that there's going to be a large expansion coming soon now. Obviously I would be betting a bit more on the upside, but I'm not going to sit here and die on that hill and be like I guarantee gold going up because you can't guarantee squat when it comes to the world of the markets.

Now in more of a shorter term, a thing that might cause people to freak out is the US government itself and the fact that they act like petulant children and cannot get anything together and it looks like we are heading towards another USFA government shutdown Congress remains divided on budget negotiations as Government shutdown looms. our financial ship is sinking Congress is still in a stalemate on the federal budget as GOP hardliners refuse to budge on further spending cuts. I Don't know what to think according to the Senate Majority Whip Dick Durban Interesting Name Dick Durban Dick Deran Dick Der Howdy. Nice to meet you I'm Dick Deran I'm the majority whip Dick Deran Dick Deran Dick Duran Dick Dick and Deran Dick Dick Dick Dick Dick and Deran Dick Deran Dick Duck Deran Dick Dick Deran I Don't know I Feel like the name? It just has, um, has a good ring to it.

That's a name that's a name you can trust in. Honestly, Dick Durban Dick Duran Dick Durban The Ball Carrier Dick Duran Just tossed a hell there Dick Duran Manager of a Texas Roadhouse Dick Durman. It just works. It just H It honestly.

Works Lawmakers over the weekend Express Few signs of movement on a budget resolution that would keep the US government funded for the remainder of the fiscal year and the clock is ticking. Current spending laws are due to expire on September 30th. That means if Congress does not reach an agreement before 12:01 a.m. on October 1st, the government will shut down House Republicans on Thursday Sent the chamber into recess, delaying further development in the negotiations.

So I'm not feeling good about it because if you believe in the Gregorian calendar and the linear nature of time, don't get me started on that. but let's just assume that's the base case. Uh, it's already the 24th, so there's not a lot of time to get this all figured out. So I wouldn't be surprised if we are very much heading towards another government shutdown.

And just to give you a little bit of idea of what they're fighting over and the craziness of money and our debt and our deficit. and just the fact that there's no fiscal responsibility at all when it comes to the US government. I Thought this was an interesting audio clip. It's as if no one has noticed that we have no extra money to send to.

Ukraine Our deficit this year will exceed $1.5 trillion. Borrowing money from China to send it to Ukraine makes no sense. It's not as if we have some sort of rainy day fund sitting around trillions of dollars at a pot of money. We're just going to send that to Ukraine We're going to borrow it when we borrow it and create new money to pay for that borrowing.

We create the inflation that is plaguing our economy. Since the beginning of Russia's war on Ukraine, the American taxpayers provided Ukraine with $113 billion. There's a lot of things that we need to fix in our country before we borrow money to try to perpetuate a war in another country. It's as if no one has noticed that we have no extra money to send to you.

All right, You get the point there. Uh, here, let me fix this. The one thing I want to add there is okay. If you were to say do do we borrow money from China Yes, But understand percentage wise, China's not what holds the majority of US debt.

In fact, most of the US debt is held by people within the US itself. So I'm not going to sit here and say oh no like China doesn't like lend us any money Yeah, but we also lend China money. But once again, percentage wise, if you look at all of our debt the last time I checked I think China owned about 10 to 11% of our debt. So it's not like some crazy majority number.

In fact, the crazy majority numbers that the US debt is held by people within the US So just wanted to add a little bit of context there. Um, but overall, it's still crazy. like I'm not saying it takes away from the situation I mean the most wild thing that I heard last week was at this point. depending on the metrics you look at, we've given roughly 100 to 150 billion to Ukraine with 100 being like the clear bottom line.

but it depends on like once again cuz sometimes it wasn't purely Financial sometimes it was in whatever resources it was in military aid, blah blah blah blah blah. but it's it's in the realm of 150 billion with a B total medical debt in the US is 88 billion as in in the same financial support we've given to Ukraine We could have almost paid off all of the medical debt in the US twice when you hear that, and when you I suppose internalize that. that's just so messed up of a situation that there are people. And honestly, if we were to talk about the morality of the situation I would much rather the US government pay off medical debt before college debt because with medical debt, you didn't choose it.

Obviously, if you go to college at some point, it was like a sentient decision of yours to go to college like no one forces you to go to college. a lot of the times with medical debt, you're not signing up and saying oh yeah I would love a super expensive procedure. like generally it's not something whether it was a horrible action, accident, or just unlucky Randomness whatever it is a lot of times with medical debt, it just sucks and you're stuck under it and that's awful. Um, but even with that being said, I'm not a fan of the government paying back student loans at all.

That student loan forgiveness. Uh, we could argue about this later, but even with that, I would much rather still even see that paid off before. What's going on with the amount of money that we're still giving to? Ukraine Um I believe maybe one of you guys in here could correct me on this one? Um I believe Poland Just announced that they're going to stop their military support for Ukraine at this point which is interesting. Think about it.

geographically of where it is like Po literally is like there bordering it. Um so I don't know crazy stuff, crazy stuff Matt You don't know it but I've been watching you since you quit your job, made it through the pandemic and it was part to you and some good money in the market. I Appreciate you brother that's so kind. I'm happy you're crushing it.

Shout out man. Uh I hope you continue to crush it I appreciate the support. Um, maybe this might make you more angry at me just to let you guys understand. like the whole situation.

But anyway, if you're worried about the economy, if you're worried about what's going on, don't you worry because Janet Yellen is right here and obviously we know she's a straight shooter. There's no reason that Janet Yellen wouldn't tell us the truth that we all need to know. Um, so I think you could take full full Yeah? I I Can't even say this straight without like cracking obviously. Jenny Yellen is a little smeagle s character that in no way do I trust.

But anyway, I don't see any sign that the economy is in risk of a downturn according to Yellen obviously just going in the face of all economic quantitative and qualitative data points. Well, um, it is cooling. But it's the cooling does not involve significant layoffs. Partly it's people joining the labor market so the supply of labor is increased.

as she really does look like labor force participation has moved up. Also, the strength of demand has cooled. You see that in a decline in the number of openings, the number of openings relative to the number of people looking for work is still quite High That's a very um, healthy labor market but not quite as hot as it was. and um, the she know about being hot obviously yell one of the major Lookers of our political system into the um just how hot the labor market is that was ex about being hot again.

it's also moved down but moved down to the kinds of levels we saw pre pandemic. So we have a good healthy labor market but not quite as hot as it was. and that's important because um, obviously our objective is to bring inflation back down to 2% and you've really? You' You have been a big believer in the soft Landing Story We We've seen it play out so far, but aren't we just starting to see the impact of the lagged effects of Fed tightening 525 basis points. How do you think about the timeline there? Well, there are lags in the impact of monetary policy on the economy, and we would expect to see some impacts I Think we've certainly seen it in the housing market, but look, we still have a good, healthy labor market.

Consumer spending remains quite robust. We've seen strong industrial production. Um I Don't see any signs that, uh, the economy is, um, at risk of a downturn? No, and this is the best of all worlds to see. Continue, You heard it right there.

That was the magic Point She hasn't seen any I Mean for you to not see signs of maybe our economy until you have to be so blind, you have to be at what's it? Ray Charles Like, that's the vision. You have to have to not see what's going on. We literally had two of the top three. Biggest Blank blowups of all time recently happened this year.

We're at a record level of national debt. We have a deficit in the tune of the trillions. We have record amounts of credit card debt. Also, just to throw in a little sprinkle on top there.

Don't forget that the interest payments on those credit card debts is also at a record high. Uh, look at the amount of mortgage defaults. Not good, Not a record level, but also not good. Like it's just we can go on and on and on.

But like apparently the smeagle versus like I guess cross with Helen Kelly Here, she doesn't see anything going on. Nothing, nothing in her book whatsoever. Uh, but to the rest of us who can understand literal basic numbers related to the macroeconomic situation, for her to have the balls, the audacity, the hutzpah to literally just call out that she doesn't see any signs of an economic down What are you talking about? Europe's on tilt Germany and the Netherlands are already in a recession. China's on tilt.

We're on tilt like and then this person's like no, I don't see I just I I just don't see it and like I Get it? We can't have the Treasury Secretary. We can't have the chairman of the FED going up and like, ah, things are bad cuz obviously become a self fulfilling prophecy. But on the flip side, that doesn't mean you just go lie to the public. It means like you come up with a better PR spin of like Hey We're trending where we need to be trending I Think we could pull this off? You don't just go up and lie to people what? That's not a good second alternative.

That's insane. Well, anyway, that's the rant stuff that I wanted to go over. Now let's get into the nerdy math stuff. so obviously break out your glasses so we can go into full nerd mode.

so glasses need to be on, uh, to watch the rest of the stream. I'll give everyone about 10 seconds because if you don't have your glasses on, if you don't have uh, a pen securely in your pocket protected sweater, you're not going to get the rest of this. So hey, go Nerd mode. It's how you make some money.

Um, reminder in terms of seasonality: the final sector of September Not a bullish one. In fact. obviously it is seasonally pretty freaking bearish. so I just wanted to bring your attention to that.

Also, pin to the top of chat in the description of the video is the newsletter M. Locals.com It is free. Four letters F re four letters. That means you don't have to pay for it and you get all this information for free free.

Uh, I came up basically. let me let me take you on this artistic. Journey Not only are you going to get a strong statistical math-based understanding of what's currently going on in the market, but you get art. Do you know how many prompts I had to put into mid Journey just to get this picture to come up with something? because I thought of this title I was like oh, sailing off the edge I was like oh AI you got to help me out.

You got to help me come up with the perfect picture to represent the title of this article of this Weekly Newsletter and and then all of a sudden I got like a space pirate hitchhiker with the ship going off the edge in some sort of dystopian futuristic World Bada bing bada Boom! You could sign just for that alone. even if you don't give a about what I have to say for the art alone, it's worth the price tag of free. But anyway I give you a breakdown of what happened in the week most recently and what I'm looking forward to in the upcoming week. all the major Market events of the upcoming week um, there's nothing on Monday but on Tuesday building permits uh, consumer confidence, new home sales Wednesday Thursday Friday you get the idea.

Uh, a look at all the earnings and then I write down the ones that I think you're most likely going to be interested in and then I give you the individual seasonality for the upcoming week. so obviously you can see: Monday is bearish Tuesday is neutral Wednesday is actually bullish Thursday is neutral and Friday is also bearish I give you a recap of the zero DTE option strategy for the previous week. This last week went six out of seven 86% accuracy hit, hit, hit hit hit and actually it was looking like it was going to go seven out of seven until the end of the day where this guy right here did not work and then I basically just go through the charts of interest and that's really what I want to get into right now. Obviously the spy and the Qes are just Major Market indexes that we should all be paying attention to.

Looks like more blood is coming a blood bass scenario Tesla officially breaking down paler potential head, shoulder, head uh, head, shoulder, shoulder doing the Macarena but could be dancing to the bottom of the dance floor pretty soon. and Nvidia also with a breakdown and then I give you a bonus one Amazon Looking like it's officially having a breakdown so just to give you a little bit of a better Insight on that, let me load the right chart. um I think I call this one art because I'm too lazy to write out the word article but that's what I saved it under because I do that kind of stuff. um I think about how much time I Sav Myself by not writing what the remaining four letters I could write art I could write articles but anyway, this is where we're at with the spy.

uh, obviously breaking down. Not only have we broken down from this bullish pendant, but we broke the support. I was alluding to this at the start of the stream, but broke. this support broke the next support and closed below it.

So if we don't quickly recapture 434, my next Target is 426 and if that doesn't hold, there is a downside. Gap fill to 423 so pay attention to that. And why didn't anyone let me know that my hair wasn't perfect right there? Um I put in not much product basically cuz I've been having a rough day and I had to drive back from PA the cat was just crying in the car the entire time I went to the gym wasn't feeling the best. your boy was a bit hung over so I try to sweat it out of my system by doing 45 minutes on the stair stepper.

that just proved to be really difficult. could barely stand in the shower and when I got out I was like I got to stream and then when I was streaming I was like dude, how much hair product do I put in so everything was all it was all. It was a crazy day, it was actually a crazy day. But anyway, the Spy more importantly, it's not looking good, not looking good in the slightest in the Q's similar situation holding a little bit better.

but I want to see this next test at 355 just below 355 Upside Gap F to 364 waiting for it to get above 362, waiting for it to break down below 357 and obviously and whatever the breakout or breakdown is, those are my next Target levels. And if the quees get really bad this upcoming week, I'd be looking at 347 this region of support right here from basically late May early June uh, what were the other ones we were talking talking about Tesla officially having a trend line breakdown closing below it: 1 2 3 days at support right now the next level I'd be watching is 230. Then we have a downside Gap fill at 21758 watching that on Tesla Obviously this is all short-term stuff. Uh, just because I think something that's going to be bearish or bullish in the short term doesn't necessarily represent how I think about it in the long term Tesla longterm I Love it.

shortterm things are looking a little bit Frosty just cuz the overall Market's not looking the best Nvidia has been running all year and I'm starting to think that the party might be over. Uh, we're getting more of, uh, technically, still higher highs and higher lows, but it's getting close to what's referred to as a megaphone pattern as in higher highs and lower lows. like as in the price actions getting more V volatile and it's just swinging larger if it goes below 403. Obviously 400 is a key technical level, a key support level.

if it gets and closes below that, we officially have a microphone and also that would be a C. A pretty clear breakdown. Uh, after that, I'd be watching 3755 followed by the low after the surprise earnings Gap up to 366 watching that on Nvidia in the shortterm Amazon similar to Tesla similar to Nvidia another classic Tech name closing below a trend line. obviously clear breakdown next, support 126 and Google similar situation.

Uh, not as bearish. Yeah, Granted, there is an upside Gill but two closes below the trend line I'm watching 126 and below that, there's a downside gaple to 123 and then the other one we talked about is Palante tier so looks different but shoulder, head, shoulder. Um, this is actually one of the most accurate technical patterns I Don't want to speak ill of paler I Know a lot of you guys are fans of it and in the long term I Do think it's going to be successful, but I mean it's hard to really miss what's going on here if it gets below and closes below 1350. I think that's setting up a move to about the mid 11s, then from there you have nine and then from there you have this downside gaple to 786.

So uh, I don't know how far any of this will go. Obviously all they could choose to revert. The patterns don't have to play themselves out fully, but those are the things I'm paying attention to. If you want to read my thoughts on it or any of this once again, you could get it for free Mac.

Local.com It's pinned at the top of chat. It's in the description of the video. It's free. It will remain free.

It's free. It's free. Sign up M. Locals.com pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video.

Uh, very quickly. This has nothing to do with the market, but I Want to do see how my fantasy teams are doing? Um, this game I am still projected to win this one. Not so much. Whoa! Who popped off for him? The Patriots defense I guess Jason Uh, the kicker on Seattle is getting more points than expected.

Also, my Kicker is clearly underperforming at the moment. dude. my the Pat's tight end tank. Dude Tyler Whoever this Atlanta running back.

Screw this guy. He screwed me over I Need Devonte Adams to really pop off Dude: I Have not had a quarterback in this league beat their projection once. This is the third week in a row that I've not had my quarterback beat the projections. That's ridiculous.

Truly, truly ridiculous. Well folks, that's what I have for you. That's your weekly update of the Mattc show of some of the craziness of last week. Uh, and also what? I'm particularly looking forward to this upcoming week.

I Hope you enjoyed it and if you didn't enjoy it I Would love to sit here and tell you that like, hey, just give me a chance I'm going to be better I'm working on things I'm working on my presentation, my speaking ability, my transitions, my not popping off on chat when they say things that I find particularly irksome. Um, but we all know that that's like if if you don't like it at this point I don't think that there's much like arm twisting I can do to get you to like it so you're either in the camp or you're not in the camp. At this point, it is what it is. Um, but even if you don't like it, you could still be a cool person and hit the like button and subscribe on both.

Rumble YouTube and sign up for the newsletter. Um, hey, just something to consider I guess before we drop, that's pretty much everything I have planned for you. we can deactivate nerd mode. So here, let me drop that and take out the pen so we could go back to like the cool person mode right now.

Um, but before anything, uh, before I go? Is there anything on your mind? Um, any questions that you're just like popping off to ask anything like that? Futures Market Opens in about 45 minutes I Just want to do a little bit of uh Q&A John uh I'm new here and I think you're great. Well, I'm not new here, but I still think you're great John uh I know Matt is a I know Matt is a movement price action Trader long longterm investing is my thing and his indicators are close to my buy lines. Uh I mean I still do long-term investing. It's just in terms of content.

there's a lot less interest in it and long-term investing. I Think it's actually way way easier and some could argue more profitable, but you just pick top tier companies in the industries that you think are going to continue to go. So for example, I think AI is going to be amazingly important to society, technology, culture in the coming one to two to three decades. So I look at the top tier companies within that.

Microsoft Nvidia Tesla I think those are all going to just continue to slowly but surely grind to the upside. uh, given enough time, but that's a multi-year if not multi-decade Horizon While a lot of times with content, people want to know like what can I like YOLO trade right now? did you see my score? in our league? I'm trying to score 200. would you do just copy paste like Tyreek Hill over and over and over again. Uh Matt what's your favorite psychology book? Uh, probably oo that's a good one.

Psychology Book: I've read a decent amount of psychology books um, my favorite one is not even actually related to training. I'm going to go with the 12 rules for life by Jordan Peterson Uh has nothing to do with trading, but it is a good I guess like life psychology book uh and then I don't know I've read a lot like but that one's a really good one. so even if you don't care at all about trading, um, that is a good book to read anything else, anything else, anything else H oh I haven't heard of this one man search for meeting by Victor Frankl I haven't heard of that wildly Cal all um um you guys might know, but I'm this upcoming week's going to be weird with the schedule because I was uh I guess I was once again invited by Rumble to the second GOP debate that's going to be out in La So I have to fly out early Tuesday and I come back early on Thursday So basically I'm going to have a lot of time in this sky. so I'm going to need books to read movies to watch.

so I'll put that on my list man search for meeting uh another one that I heard about that was pretty good was the the like the Zen what's it called like the Zen of owning a a motorcycle or the art of owning a motorcycle. something like that. something about owning a motorcycle I heard a couple people suggested that was a good one has have any of you read that is that a good one? the I think it's the art of owning a motorcycle. the artistic Zen of owning something about motorcycles and it makes sense because I also just want to own a motorcycle.

so I think it'll work. um what do you usually trade in? What time frames like long-term swings? Uh, I'll do all of them but on stream. The show is much more of day trading and swing trading. Um, but I do have accounts for all of those and I also have accounts for crypto and Futures and options and my investments.

So I kind of do it all because I'm a degenerate Trader I'm basically a high functioning gambling adct. Um, so I'm not going to pick I'm not going to stop I mean I do Sports gam I I do all I Just like gambling. gambling is fun as the Zen of working on a motorcycle. Um, it should be this: Zen of working on these thick thighs.

that'd be the title of a book that I'd really want to. What was your most impactful book? Probably the Foot Book by Dr Seuss Right Foot Right Foot left foot left. Um when I was growing up uh, everyone thought I was a bit of a so they didn't know if they had to like hold me back or keep me in special class is that kind of a thing? So like to prove that like I didn't have like some sort of I guess wasn't mentally stymied I had to like read a book And I memorized that book so I outsmarted the system and said I couldn't read and it like actually took me quite a while to like be proficient at reading. Um, so that book I would argue is the most impactful because I just memorized it instead and then I couldn't read it.

but I just regurgitated the entire book cuz I memorized the book Um, so I think arguably the foot book by Dr Sus has a lot to do with like why I'm here right now, so that's a solid question. Super solid question any whoel. That's what I have for you I appreciate all the Good Vibes I Hope you guys enjoyed it and if not, maybe, but probably not I'll be better next time I'll catch you uh, tomorrow morning 9:00 a.m. right? You better be there or you're going to be a big fat.

Square Uh, sign up for the newsletter Mac. Locals.com It is free peace out.