Thank you Foreign thank you Laughs Foreign. Good morning, Good morning, Good morning. It is Friday January 6th and you know what that means. That means it is unemployment Report day and we're going to be getting that report in just about seven minutes and I am fully fully fully expecting a crazy amount of volatility in the market.

So that's why we're streaming early today. Uh oh wait, my astronaut's not on. Oh all right, that could have been dangerous. That could have been beyond dangerous if we didn't turn on our astronaut.

That could have been really really bad. So good thing we avoided that. Um you know what we didn't avoid Joe is me entering into the traitor hospital yesterday? Absolutely brutal. I Wasn't until I was on tilts till like people within tilt were like oh what's wrong with that guy um it wasn't a pretty situation.

it wasn't a pretty situation in the slightest. but hey um, you know something about horses and getting back on them and even though I hate riding horses, you're told to just I don't know, do some something with I don't know I I guess horses fix it or some crap like that. but hey we're back here and I kind of prep talked myself the entire night last night there. I was soaking in a bathtub and I'm just yelling at myself I didn't have like my bathroom mirror there just because like the bathtub's lower.

so I like I brought in just like a personal mirror and I was just screaming at myself for uh the better part of an hour I don't think it was a full hour, but probably in the realm of 50 minutes. I was just screaming at myself in that bathtub and there was like little duckies floating around. but I think I did exactly what I needed to to get my mindset straight so we're gonna see how it plays out today. Um, to give you guys a little bit of an idea of what I'm doing and you could yell at me if I don't keep myself accountable is part of my problem yesterday was poor entries, too much leverage, and just being an emotional dumbass.

So we're going to attempt to fix that all today. So to help with the entries, well, I'm just gonna have to enter when this system truly gives me, uh, a signal to enter and exit. I Missed some exits yesterday when I was reviewing all my trades. Not so good to help with leverage.

What I'm going to be doing is playing at most two contracts at most two contracts yesterday I went from two to three to four to five to six and I blew all those up. So I went back down to five to four to three to two by the end of the day. So today, no more than two contracts per trade. Doesn't matter how juicy of a situation we're in I need to keep myself accountable.

So I'm waiting for the proper entries and exits. I'm only playing at Max two contracts and what I'm going to be doing to help de-risk the situation. That second contract I won't be holding it as long as I do the first. Basically, that one's going to be a little bit more of a bunt situation where I'm going to enter it and I'm quickly only gonna go for two points Profit just to help buffer the situation.

I'm in an attempt to help hold myself accountable to this system the entire day and also just a little ad on top of that, my first trade will is not allowed to happen before 9 45 So it's almost 8 30 now, so for the next hour and 15 minutes hey, you should feel free to trade I Hope you're crushing it. but I'm here just going to be attempting to hold myself accountable because I am very much in the trader hospital right now. Not the best way to start off the year. The day one I made 140, day two I made 1.8 000 and then yesterday I lost like 12.

So right now my net on the year is down 10 and I alluded to this a little bit yesterday. but if you ever find yourself in a situation like this where you're down big for your account size I Don't try to make it back in one trade, Don't try to make it back in one day if you type, try with that type of training Revenge mentality Most times I would vehemently argue you're going to end up in a worse situation than you already did. and if you need proof of that, watch the stream from yesterday. you're going to see my mentality just fully go off any I don't know the Cliff of reality and solid training and I it got worse like I saw the loss I wanted to chase it and get out of it really quickly.

so I played bigger then I lost more and then I try to get out of that. So I played more and it was just an absolute fucking debacle. So today we're going to be as emotionless as a freaking robot. I Know Two days ago I was sitting here saying that we entered into our villain phase and we're just going to short everything that wasn't sarcasm.

But you know, what's not sarcasm is the fact that maybe it's not a villain phase. we're all machines save. Save all of your emotions for fighting in your relationship or screaming at yourself in your mirror because this, we're cold. we are cold as we have the emotions of a but folks.

With all that being said, we are about to watch the unemployment report drop so let me switch it over here. Let me get this: we'll get the one minute because things are about to go a little bit. Haywire Just so you know, the expectation is 200 000 for non-farm pay from the sand and we might as well just get alive. Uh, right here.

We don't need this anymore. Let's see what CNBC has to say about it because it should be happening any second. Anything of the jobs Market is one of tightness. Wait, give it a quick refresh if you're lagging robust job gains and so let me double the number that we're seeing today.

What's my Internet I think we'll be around 200. should be good, just give it a quick refresh. I think we today's data uh will not necessarily surprise us one way or I think we should be good, but it should hopefully start showing some moderation in the trend of non-farm payrolls. The thing that is continuing to push this number up is the fact that Services jobs give it a quick refresh.

It should be fixed. Now we've seen in Goods producing companies as we get through the year. I think Goods producing companies continue to lose jobs and some of that Services jobs number will come off of these hot levels. however.

Uh, as everybody else has said, we're still seeing stubbornly tight numbers in other parts of the labor market. so I wouldn't expect a huge surprise today. Get Ready Get Ready Get Ready We are 13 seconds away to Rick in just a second. Anything you can say in 10-15 seconds I agree on the strong I'm going to get ready how high that came in.

Let's see if this is December good I See it. Okay, not a problem. Joe I've got 220 23 000. we continue to see these numbers: 223.

numbers. And if we look at manufacturing payrolls, manufacturing payrolls increased about 8 000. Darn close to expectations. Three point five percent on the unemployment rate 3.5 That equals the best levels we've seen post covet.

historically unbelievably good. And of course if you're looking at the FED due to the FED raising rates trying last month's up six tens which do low water mark going all the way back to Old three. and if we look these I don't think this is gonna hold labor force participation. It feels like this is YouTube specific since the high Point connection.

My speed is ripping. Dream House is 3.5 News symbol is perfectly good just so everyone knows. which is telling me that this is a YouTube issue. but YouTube isn't even telling me it's in excellent condition.

So I think YouTube is having some stream issues right now so we're exactly equal now. Wages, folks just go over to Rumble. Here's the if you're having an issue. a disappointment, especially on the year over year number.

at 4.6 it's still light years light years above where we just click on that link. It keeps talking about tech. This is 100 a YouTube issue. We've had some interesting numbers today.

Tech represents two percent labor force roughly. Let's talk about people working 154 million. That comes out to a little over 3 million in Tech in Leisure Hospitality Restaurants about 15 and a half million government workers about 21.5 million just to put a face on it. Joe And the panel Back to you All right? uh Jason Let me just ask Tyler for some comments unless we haven't talked to Tyler yet this morning.

What do you think Tyler Well you know I wish we'd had time beforehand I think my my pre-estimate was 215. Oh shit and I was gonna say that I'm going to be looking at any sign and looking for any signs of easing both on the supply and the demand side. and the demand side is going to be looking for what's happening to our average hourly earnings and what's happening to average hours and on the supply side, what's happening to the composition of flows into employment. How many of these new workers are we playing? I Don't think this whole employment because it's a good report.

the labor force on all three of those indicators. two on the demand side, one on the supply side. I I Think it's something. unemployment is lower than expected labor market? Yeah.

I Think the key here. This is a good report. I'm actually really surprised that the market isn't cratering on this news. it had been last year or last week with the reasoning being if you're looking at average hourly earnings up that tells the fact that the FED can Crush continue to push pedal a little metal on this.

how is this up right now Jason Yep. Jason This surprises me. So it's not just large downward revisions to October and November last month, there were unusually large upward revisions. Now are unusually large downward revisions.

When I was looking at the data a month ago, it looked like the pace of wage growth was like five and a half percent. Now over the last three months, it's an annualized rate of 4.1 percent that would be consistent with about a three percent inflation rate, which is what we're seeing in the price data. All of these data are starting to line up a little bit better, but these big revisions, the upward last month to wages the downward this month means as Steve Lisman said before, I just don't trust these data as much as I wish I could. That's going to put a lot of pressure on the ECI that we get basically as the FED is meeting for their next meeting.

that's going to tell us an awful lot about what's going on in the label price pressures. So comments criticisms get in the sense that we see or not. it breaks down to to a point later in the year. So let's say conference board survey where they ask are jobs plentiful or are jobs hard to get Some of those indicators would say that back in March the jobs plentiful peaked which usually leads a peak in the labor market by about 8 to 12 months, so we could still be on the cusp of something getting weaker.

But today, this is a pretty good report. I Think the market cheers it Upset It's a really good report. Yeah, I think it's a strong report. uh, going into the New Year, but but wait I want to focus on that for a minute? If you look at that number that is well below inflation.

and so for a worker single of their dollar, it's not a good situation if you're worried about the overall economy. And I think that is the real rub of this labor market. Even though there may be some celebration on the moderation of wages, it's not at the household level. They still know need those wages to be robust to keep up with inflation.

So bringing the FED into that picture, how do they navigate the real drop? And we're seeing this in ADP Data and and wage growth? The timing of that. With the timing of lower inflation, you'd like inflation to drop faster than wage growth and not the other way around. Policeman: It started with you. Let me, let me get back and I know you've been looking through these things, you know.

Joe I Still see this as a relatively tight, tight report here. Um, and I'll tell you why. Uh, you know it was explained to me many, many years ago by A very wise person who said you can look at all these numbers, you can, uh uh, you know, unpack them and dig down deep. But at the end of the day the thing that tells you what you need to know about the Uh Job market is the unemployment rate and that's down to three and a half percent.

We did have some people come back in. I'll also add that that we the job the household survey is doing a little catch up with the payroll survey. Uh, which is good to happen because you don't have this big difference as much anymore. But one thing I'm looking at Joe is I'm looking at the number of people who are long-term unemployed and and that's come down.

It's come down from two million at the beginning of the year down to 1.1 million And what I'm trying to do is provide some context with which people can read the headlines that are out there about these job layoffs, the extent to which people are losing their jobs and remaining unemployed. That does not seem to be the case. And like I said, I got a bunch of anecdotes and just real quick. Joe The Um job growth was in the two areas.

We still are playing catch-up with the pandemic here: Leisure and Hospitality up a very strong I want to double check that number 67 000. um accommodation in Food Services uh up up again and then also Education Health Services another area that was up pretty strongly. So those are the two areas I'm looking at I Still see the job areas tight I Don't see a reason for the FED to back off and just real quick. Bullard Yesterday in a conference call with reporters said hey, we have a strong job market.

It's a good time to be fighting inflation. Steve One of the things we've heard over and over is that there are job openings. Obviously, lots of job openings that are greater than the actual jobs that are needed for them or or the people that are needed for them. But there's a view.

Or there has been a view that's been espoused that all these job openings are not real job openings, meaning that the companies aren't planning to actually ever.