H Merry Christmas everybody Merry Christmas W W W W W w he a Oh brother oh brother oh brother Hey folks. uh let me actually switch this over very very quickly to the market so we can see the reaction from the ADP nonfarm roll report little bit of a pop to the upside. let's see if our boy Rick Selli is talking about it. That has been a major addition to employ over the last several months.

It's the first decline that I can see for quite aiv. Payroll increased by 13,000 in November below expectations. Remember negative news: the economy bullish for the market showing signs of a tighter lab they have it's the was 130,000 the line in the S was 13,000 pman at 103 Less jobs than expected. a worse economic sign showing dampening demand.

Poti for necessarily cring 100,000 is right in line with what you might expect given the uh growth of the population. Becky All right Steve Stay with us. We've got a lot more to talk about. We want to bring in Nila Richardson she's Chief Economist at ADP and Nila how would you describe the declines? That that or the lower than anticipated gains I should say Bitcoin 44k the end of an era if you look at that indry breakdown that Steve just walked us through to see Leisure and Hospitality it's negative.

7,000 in the month of November signifies that the labor market has changed. Uh, L This sector Leisure and Hospitality was the dominant sector for the past two years. It took the hit of the pandemic. It was only 11% of the jobs Market Going into the pandemic took 40% of the losses.

It's the reason why we we saw outsize page gains. It was the only sector that showed double digigit wage gains by ADP Payal data and it did so for 16 consecutive months. To see that drop in Leisure and Hospitality signifies a few things. One, we're not going to see outside page growth.

Two other sectors of the economy will have to do their part, including those this whole year and three small October Num down. No going. October was down in terms of the rision and then was also lower than expectation. We economic sign: tight labor market sign.

How does this match up? I mean the point Stock market reaction. Look, the market has been calling for a weaker economy, but not one that necessarily goes into a deep recession of any sort. Um, how would you characterize the overall jobs Market Historically in terms of how it aligns with the economy. Right now.

Right now, it's solid. We're Treading Water Uh, in terms of trend, we right at yesterday's high 4759. But there's still some weakness in the labor market. Crazy I Don't like to see manufacturing slump strikes are over.

We didn't see that big boost come back into the November. So there's some weakness in the labor market that I think is concerning. But overall, big picture. Yeah, we might be bouncing right out this.

Cloud Push all the way up sideways. slow consolidation technically haven't broken out yet. Interesting point you made that that this is what Wall Street has been wanting. yesterday.

they got that with the Jolts report too that the job turnovers was the lowest in two and a half years. but yesterday the& and the Dow both closed down anyway. Not not that you're I'm asking you to make Market proog prognostications, but it's a little weird to see Wall Street getting what it's want what it wants and to not see big gains on any of that. Maybe that's because we had such a strong month of November because we've already ripped 11% you knows Becky on Becky The way I look at things is you never quite know when the market smelled something out and I felt like the market had a pretty good run if I'm not mistaken.

Leading up to that data, it could have been a sell the news thing with the question being for y'all to debate. as far as I'm concerned, which is what's the next driver here? Okay, let's dial in a soft Landing Let's dial in the idea that the FED is cutting rates. now. Tell me where profits are going to come from.

Tell me what's going to grow stocks, what's going to get people interested in in in in the stock market? Um, I am very interested and I'm sure Nila is too in what's going to happen at 8:30 we're going to get the productivity numbers. We're also going to see declining unit labor costs I ran some numbers this morning that showed that unit labor costs lead wages by about 2 months. Um, and that has been a big positive for the economy and the question becoming is it a big positive for companies? Are they finding ways to turn greater productivity and to turn that productivity into profits? That's a question where once you get done with the adjustments that Nil was talking about, it gets down into the nuts and bolts of making money or not making money or not. Well, when you look at the payroll data and you know making money or not is the key question here.

Um, when you look at the payroll data, what you see is the premium from switching jobs has never been as small as it is right now. Uh, the market has loosened up in terms of Labor Supply So in that sense I Guess that's another sign of how tight labor market earnings. We're going to see less of a drag going forward. Uh, but it does beg the question.

what is going to be that dominant sector? That's the question I have because right now we're seeing Services still carry the water good morning CRA Mansus Yard Patriots 17. Uh, these customer facing client facing Industries are not known to be productivity boosters that comes from manufacturing that comes from Tech That comes from information. If we're not seeing the job gains match those standards for productivity. it does call into question who's going to be making money next year.

All right. real quickly. looking at what the expectation for the jobs report jobs report this: Friday unemployment report this Friday ,000 uh which is still pretty darn strong I Think it's interesting that would be a number that would not be in line with this softer Landing idea that would still be accelerating I will say ADP has a kind of spotty record of hitting the Uh number of the BLS private sector. but one thing it did do was it did signal the downshift in hiring uh, much, uh, several months earlier.

So we'll see if the downshift in the BLS follows the downshift in ADP. That will be interesting to me I Don't look to ABP for the precise number I Look for it more for the trend and the trend in ABP has been back towards normal. That's enough of that. Thank you n you called.

There's going to be a couple uh, additional numbers coming out at Uh 8:30 the production numbers. It's not on this because I just have this filtered on investing to uh be a three star reports, but the production numbers are considered to be a two star report. For whatever reason, a couple of these like I don't necessarily agree with investing. like for example, the Michigan inflation numbers.

Investing.com has them as a two star, but they're definitely influential. So anyway, couple more reports coming out at 8:30 now. I'm not saying they're like the most impactful reports, but I figure. Since we're here anyway, we'll be able to see in real time the reaction.

But if you're tuning in right now, the reason we're starting a bit early today is because of the ADP non-farm roll. uh, employment change. So two things went down: The November numbers just came in. They were expecting 130,000 jobs.

It was 103 less than expected. So bad economic sign. Good for the stock market just because of the current phase of monetary policy. And then on top of that, we also got the revision from October uh in October it was reported at 113 and that was revised down to 106.

So once again, another weak economic sign. Another sign suggesting the strength of the labor market, the tightness of it really, and obviously. Uh, the Market's initial reaction slightly to the upside at 8:15 Uh, coming right down. I Mean, if you look at it like I know this is the 1 minute chart.

So like maybe not too much movement there. But overall, this Market is strong. Yesterday's high was 45759. We're sitting at 45755.

We're basically sitting at the high from yesterday. If this gets going, I'm looking at a test of 459 and some change and then pass that we have 462. Now on the flip side, if the Spy, the ETF tracking the S&P H were to fail below 45334. Yeah, okay, that might be setting up a additional downside to somewhere between 448 and 450.

So maybe in this region to the downside if we were to break that way. But right now the momentum, the enthusiasm very much appears to be to the upside. so just want to give you a quick breakdown of that and I guess on that note, we're kind of doing the show inside out. We're starting in the middle and then I'm kind of jumping back a little bit closer to the intro and simultaneously a little bit closer to the outro.

So it's going to be a unique Inside Out type of a show today. But hey folks I appreciate you joining me early. I Do I do I do thank you thank you thank you Um I Think we're going to have a good Wednesday We had a good Monday made some money, we had a good Tuesday made some money and now it's Wednesday It's hump day. so hopefully it's a a moneymaking hump day.

I know, sometimes some of us I don't know. just kind of wander through any random humping day and don't make money. so maybe we can turn this one around. Maybe we can make this a paid humping day now.

I'm not necessarily suggesting that anyone sells their body, but hey, whatever makes Mak money with makes money YouTube Overlords If you're listening to that, that's called a joke I'm not telling people to traffic themselves. it's a joke j o a joke. We're making jokes about it. People don't don't do anything I wouldn't do, don't don't do anything I wouldn't do unless I've had about like Three Margaritas that that might, there might be a line there.

there might be a Line in the Sand of like. even if I would do it post Three Margaritas and Cancun Pro probably just don't do it Matt looks tired. Thanks guys. Super super appreciate that.

Let's just comment on my looks after. You guys make fun of my alleged weaked immune system. I Can't believe you guys are still attacking me for my immune system when like, literally half the world has this cough right now. So you're like pointing at me as if like I'm some sort of uh, like anomaly case.

but I'm not I'm not Matt help I Accident accidentally invested money in Bitcoin in November and it's ripping. What do I do I don't know I don't Honestly, uh, a lot of the time I'm full of words, very verbose, and more than willing to make up an answer on the spot. But I've literally never had to deal with gains I Don't know. dealing does anyone else dealing with gains? Wait wait.

So you're telling me you got in at a certain value and now it's trading at a high value as in like I What's the word? Um, net net Something? net net profit? Are you? Are you in a net profit? I've read about this before. maybe I heard about it I Honestly, I might be confusing it with something else, but I'm pretty sure you're in a net profit. um and I don't know how to handle it I I don't know I know how to handle a little jungle cat who knocks over my C coffee I know how to handle a like fiance who pops her Tire on the side of the highway when I'm doing my show um, but that that's one? do I call a priest I would call a priest a rabbi a shaman. um I would maybe get a psychic involved I don't I I mean we could try to crowd Source this for you.

Maybe someone else in here has like maybe it's like a friend of a friend situation. Maybe they have a friend who had a friend who heard of a guy who's handled this before. Um, but no, this. This is definitely a rarity for our show being in a profit.

I don't know I I don't know I bought 70k calls for January 26 today I'm hoping I can sell them between 50 and 60k for nice gains. wait are you talking for Bitcoin Bob sheep If so, I'm kind of curious where what platform are you using to trade crypto options? Is it? uh, I was doing some research on that this morning. It durab bit is that where you're doing it like I'm trying to figure out the most popular place I know of a couple but I just don't know what the most popular place people are training crypto options are. So Bob please please share your please share your insights.

Uh I'm very very very curious on that one. H Bob Bob don't hold this one from us. Oh also folks, just so you know, pin to the top of chat is the obviously we're going to at 9:30 when the Market opens. I'm going to need to make some sort of degenerate trade so that's going to be the poll for it.

So the market open trade minute number one from 9:30 to 9:31 a.m. ET Do you think the Market's going up? Do you think the Market's going down? Please cat your vote. Right now, the Bulls are very very dominant. Uh I have a buddy that uses Bing x what does Bob use Bob's a really Roberto he his username is Bob but all his buddies myself included.

uh we call him Roberto I'm on okx as I'm 90% bot Trader it's best in that fees bit higher but good volume, coins and balance sheet. Mexi is the bomb right now. Okay so wait what are you guys using? Okay so you have okx is what Bob uses. that's what Roberto uses Parker is trying to tell us about Mexi and then who had a friend Kevin has a friend an old high school elementary buddy who he used to play tag with at recess who uses Bing X This morning I was reading about Durab Bit.

All right. I will do a bit of research into these and figure out what's going on because I've been crushing the premium selling in the world of the S&P 500. I Wonder if I could get into the world of selling crypto options as well is what I'm particularly looking into. But yeah, my crypto account.

It was at one point decently into the realm of six figures. like in if it were to be converted all the way back to USD and then with the Crypto winter, it was like a little bit of a very super serious nose dive. down and down and down. And then Voyager blew up which caused My overall Crypt net value to go even more down.

And then the FTX thing happened and it was even more down. and at one point I had a crypto account that was pushing the value the peak value of probably a quar mlie and then at one point I checked it because I lost many, many. uh, I guess like buckaroos if you will on Voyager more buckaroos on FTX got completely destroyed by hex. um for a bit there I was getting destroyed by Dow Needless to say, I was able to speedrun an account My Overall crypto portfolio of over a quarter mil.

Uh, at one point it was below either 20 or 25k. So within like the span of I don't know 8 to 12 months, I was able to speedrun a net loss of about 90% So what's exciting is the fact that we're starting to come back up and the current account. I I think it just I'll look into it I'll look into it right now. coin let me get I just need to get the spot prices and do some quick math.

Um yeah, officially back over 100k. So it was just like and then out of the ashes a baby Phoenix is being born a little a little baby chick Phoenix So will this Phoenix become the dominant burn of the animal kingdom? I Don't know I All I know is that it's coming back. It's it's seemingly coming back. What will be the heights of this particular run? I Have no clue.

Uh, but I'm excited. It makes me feel like maybe I'll be able to pay for my upcoming wedding. Who knows Time will tell, time will tell. Um, and I actually have a pretty big Bitcoin update story that also relates to Ethereum, so we'll be going over that in a second If you enjoy joining in right now.

Good morning, good morning, good morning. don't forget to crush your coffee. Um the As Lindsay Lan would say in what was it? Me and girls, there is no limit. There is no limit that that's the answer.

That's how much coffee you should have per day. It just keeps going and going and going. Um so uh, did you DCA into your crypto or was that just your OG account I DCA a bit but see, that's the problem was I was dcing into an account that I then lost between Voyager and FTX So like I was like yes but also no Did I DCA yeah a bit there like it wasn't on the most uh frequent Cadence it wasn't like weekly or anything but I was I was like oh seems low, buy a little bit, buy a little bit, buy a little bit like that type of a deal. uh and then I lost it all.

anyway. so did I DCA yes, Did I get the benefit from dcing no does. Does that does that make sense? So like same same but different but still the S same so it's like the same as not doing it. but I I did do it.

Imagine ding into something to the point that it cost you money. but then you don't get the benefit from it at all. Uh folks I have multiple Bitcoin that I will never ever see again because of it being lost on Voyager multiple Bitcoin that are just gone, gone gone gone like ether dust. It's just somewhere Thanos snapped into the universe that that's where it is.

Um so you're still going to benefit you whole BTC and eth all you need to do is wait, no, but you don't understand I'm not going to be getting that back. So basically I was DCA just for lawyers to fight about it in court and I'll never be seeing it I think I got like 20 or 30% of it back from Voyager. So no, I I won't be benefiting because it's it's now not mine. the the the Long Reach of the law took it from me and it's now being discussed.

I guess in bankruptcy court or some crap like that and I'm just assuming I'm not going to get it at all. Um, but hey, you know, just just another thing to cry about in the shower at least four times a day. Doesn't doesn't upset me at all? Um, does. doesn't doesn't upset me at not angry, not super super super, not angry.

Um Uncle Sam and Biden will give you a break on your loss dude. they already give me a break on my loss for my normal stock trading. Like at a certain point, they're going to send a squad of people to just stop me. like I've there is I think the IRS has a certain wall and this is how I imagine it.

I think the IRS has a wall of people who just have an extraordinarily extraordinarily High capital gains loss registered with them and I think I'm on like the peak of that wall like I think it's the wall of stupidity and they're like, look, how dumb this kid is. The amount of already losses that I officially have registered with Uncle Sam I I Don't think they even care about my crypto ones. They're like this kid is already ruining his life with options and now he's continuing to make his life even worse with crypto. like I think I Imagine the IRS Like after they have a long day of auditing people and rooting people's life because no one likes the IRS they just go to the water cooler and they just look at my recent filings and they just laugh I Think like whenever an IRS agent is having a bad day I Think to make themselves feel better, they bring up my information and they're like dude, at least it could be way worse.

That's what I imagine goes on. so that's where we're at. that's where we're at. but who knows, maybe Bitcoin and Eth will keep going.

That's like what I'm mainly in. About 95 to 98% of my portfolio right now is split between Bitcoin and E. So as long as that pairing keeps going up and and up and up and and up and up. I think I should be all right.

You know? So you can't do tax loss harvesting. If you lost figures, you won't pay taxes till you gain it back. Uh, that's not what tax loss harvesting is. So tax loss harvesting is like at the end of the year looking at your portfolio.

let's say you have X amount of gains. You can also sell your losses to bring your gains down and then you're only paying capital gains on that net profit. That's what tax loss harvesting is. It's you locked in gains.

You're locking in losses to bring your realiz profits lower so you pay less in taxes. um I'm no lawyer I'm I'm no CPA I'm no tax attorney or anything. But to my understanding, uh, you can write off $3,000 worth of net losses if you're a net negative. Trader You can write off $3,000 of net losses per year.

So let's say one year you have $115,000 in net losses. You could be writing off that 3K for the next 5 years the first year. 3K then you basically have 12K So you write off three more then you have 9k. So at this point I think my great great grandchildren are going to be writing off like me their grandpappy's 3K losses per year I Don't know if it's passed down like that I think it'd be a really cool system of like would your great-grandfather give you I'm just picturing my futuristic like Alien Children to be like grandp course pass down capital gains losses and that that's what I want my legacy to be I want my legacy to be my great great grandchildren.

Like my big donation to them is that they'll be able to rate off $3,000 against their income forever. be like dude, he was such a bad degenerate Trader that like Grand Papy Kors gave us 3K off our net income per year. So that's my Legacy. That's where we're going to be at.

I Don't know I don't know I don't make the rules I Really don't even know the game I'm just here I Just showed up and I've really kind of handled most of my Life by just purely winging it I I Don't really show up and ask questions and try to figure out what's going on I show up. Act overconfident. Try to figure it out. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

We'll see how it plays out this this time. I Don't know I don't know. Um, on that note. Oh wait, we did get the report.

Sorry. uh. ooh the production report came in folks. I got way too into the story of how much money I'm down on everything in my life and right here.

the production report came out at 8:30 pop. Little bit of a breather. We're seeing how it's going Bitcoin looking good 44k TLT Bonds looking Boa know me Amigo uh my bond position. dude.

maybe it's bonds. Is it really fixed income? that's going to fix my life? Uh, right here we have bonds ripping. We've been talking about it I Let you guys know my official entry was right here around 8889. Um, maybe it was on this day.

Maybe I Got in on the 15th I think my average is around 89 I should look into it. Regardless, it is moving. um I'm going to be watching how it reacts to 97 and in all reality I may just be holding on to this Bond position till it breaks out of this resistance since at 109 and you know I might get kooky enough I might get crazy enough that I try to hold my bonds all the way back up to 170. you know I don't know I don't know.

All I know is I have an average around 89 I'm already looking good. It's bonds. It seems as if we've already hit the terminal rate. so I don't see a reason for bonds to keep going down I think yields will fall I think bonds will go up I put it in my long-term account because it's not an active trade I'm more than all right to mentally hold this position for a handful of years if need be and I think that's how things are going to go I think with enough patience TLT the 20-year Bond ETF I think reverts to 140, 150, 160 170.

This is the range I'm looking at. Obviously, 170 would be nice, but I I think if you have the patience, TLT will get back above 150 and when you're in at 89, that's a nice return. That's a real nice return. Um, so I'm really, really happy with that.

and then I'm also in TLT W which is an ETF that holds TLT And then on top of that, say they sell covered calls against it. it's a lot less Wicked liquid. excuse me the 20-year treasury bond. Uh, Bond buy right strategy.

so they own TLT sell cover calls against it. The one major downfall of TLT W is if it goes too quickly, that means that the bonds get the calls get hit so that could be a little problematic. So really, if you're in Ttw, what you're saying is I want TLT to go up but not to go up like way too volatile. Um, so just one thing to consider, but the benefit of it.

Obviously, with everything, there's a tradeoff. If there's a downside, there's most likely an upside vice versa. The upside here is has a nice nice apy of about 18% right now. so as long as it doesn't I guess get so volatile that enough of the calls get blown out that It suffers 18% Um, it's kind of a nice monthly income thing just because that's how often the dividends paid out.

So Ttw is basically TLT with dividends and there's some nuances that I highly recommend everyone else like look into if you care about this. but I'm in TLT I'm in Ttw and thus far those are looking really, really good. and I mean as much as I joke about it, this one's also looking amazing for me. I got into Texas Roadhouse at 102 103 right here where it pushed up came down and it was on this breakout that I got in at 103.

So my Texas Roadhouse I don't even know why I'm surprised about it. Obviously when you invest in the best company ever made ever known to man, of course it's going to make you money. So I don't know why I'm sitting here at all surprised that Texas Roadhouse is up for me because it's the best company ever known not I'm not sitting here saying it's the best restaurant ever known I'm sitting here saying it's the best company ever known I want to be very very specific about that? like I don't want you guys to take away the message here like oh Matt really likes Texas Roadhouse it's his face favorite restaurant Equity No it is my favorite invention by man ever including slice spread I I Don't know how to be more clear about that. More clear about that.

18% apy super sus. It's exactly like FTX uh no, you could just look into it's fixed income it. It's not like some sort of crypto thing. it's literally selling calls.

Um, all you have to do is read the perspectives so like to I would not at all put those mentally in my one's crypto. A new new industry that obviously illegal illicit things were going on in the background. Ttw is a registered ETF with the SEC where you can see exactly what they're doing. You can see how much CLT they own.

you can see what cover calls they're selling like it. No, um, not at all. they're just that's a nature of the options. Market Uh, but anyway Texas Roadhouse that one's working out the more.

The only recent medium-term one that I got into that just isn't really working thus far far as Rum I Really thought on this push right here we'd get going just because coming into the election year and whatnot. I Thought Rum was going to kind of have the enthusiasm to get above this 48 EMA and switch its EMA Cloud over back to being bullish and I thought we'd get going there. uh, but not yet. not yet.

So this one a little bit of a slow burner pound tier looking good. Uh, recently got smacked so watching it at its 48 EMA uh had a rough day on Monday A very rough day. maybe show shoulder head, shoulder which could lead to a bit of a downfall I Know if you're in Paler, you don't want to hear that you don't want to see it. But for me, a person who missed out on the paler rocket I would love to get some paler sub16.

so I don't necessarily hate it cuz I don't want to actively trade paler. It does have good range, it does have good volatility, but um I've been learning quite a bit about the company, the leadership, the direction of the company. um, and really, the organization, the business. Uh, from Tom Nash Um, you guys should check him out.

but anyway. uh, downside. Gapville and I I just want to get in at a cheaper price. so I I know you don't want to hear it if you're already in it.

but I really wouldn't mind paler dropping so I could get some on the cheap. So looking at Paler right now, it's at a decision Point 480 Man, all that good stuff. But if you guys want, we could do more chart review and all that stuff in a bit. There are a couple things I want to discuss with everyone this morning: stock futures rise today Wednesday After the S&P 500 Dow slip for a second day.

So if you were to look at the the daily chart of the Spy tracking the S&P 500, we popped a lot. we're consolidating. That's natural for the Market expansion. Consolidation Expansion.

Consolidation. Expansion. Consolidation. The golden question is the next phase of expansion.

Which direction will it be in? I Have no idea. No one on this planet does. Everyone acts as if in the short term You can predict what's going to go on. It is the shorter your time frame, the more Randomness involved.

That is just it's the law of gravity within the stock market. Market The shorter your time frame, the more Randomness involved. So right here. Huge expansion to the upside.

Now we're consolidate consolidating. Goaling question is: do we break above 45950 and rip? or do we break below 453 and then fall down and get this Gap fill at 441 your guess is as good as mine and the fact that we have about a 50% accuracy of being able to predict this predict properly accurately? why not just wait till one of them happens and play that direction I Don't really see if there's necessarily a quote unquote edge of playing it right now when we simply don't know if you look at this right now I could be persuaded. either way, you could argue one side. Wow, look at all this bullish momentum.

don't forget about the Santa Claus rally. Don't forget about the fact that maybe we already hit the terminal rate with in terms of monetary policy and there's a lot of enthusiasm coming in I Get that like it does seem as if the S&P 500 is classically a trend following really? I Guess ass? So yeah. I I get that argument. On the flip side: I Also understand: wow.

in about 5 to 6 weeks, the overall Market moved up more than 11% more than 10% What about some mean reversion? Aren't the engines a bit too hot? Don't we need to take a bit of a breather? I get that too. And the fact that I understand where both the bull and the bear Cam's coming from and also I understand that most people's prediction is literally the same accuracy as flipping a coin. why don't we just wait until something literally happens. You either break above or before you break below and we can play that direction.

So for me, yeah, I I kind I I Truly do understand both arguments. so because of that and I also just think People's Natural gut of Trading is a very poor barometer of what's going on in the market. I'm just going to wait if we keep pushing. Great.

Would love to see it if we start to fall. also. Okay I don't care about being bullish or bearish I just want the price action to be very obvious of what I should be doing. So early this morning we did did get the ADP job non-farm job payroll and then we also got the production numbers.

Obviously if you dive into the minute chart you're going to see a slight Spike at 8:15 when the ADP jobs came out and then the production numbers came out and right now the Spy is obviously looking strong. The overall: Equity Market's looking strong. The crypto Market's looking strong. Things are looking strong.

Us consumers will soon wake up to outof control interest on their credit cards. According to an economist, consumer spending is being financed by credit cards where interest is quote unquote, over the top out of control. Off the hook right now. Weinberg sees a retr Retrenchment Is that a word retrenchment is retrenchment.

a real word as CNBC is screwing with us. A retrenchment in spending in the New Year as debt burdens rise through. Probably not enough to push the US economy into a recession. So credit card debt is now over a trillion dollars in the US.

Uh, how have people been handling inflation? They've been putting it on their credit card, which is particularly nefarious when you realize that the average the median payment on credit cards right now is also at a record high. So not only do we have a record high debt on credit cards, but the payment on that debt also a record high. And now we're seeing an uptick in like delinquent payments. So not a good situation.

Um, for quite a few months now, all these fancy schmy analysts and economists have been calling for retail spending consumer spending to to slow down and they've continually been wrong. Because people, for whatever reason I'm not saying it's the financially smart thing to do, have just been putting it on their credit card, credit card credit card and we even saw it with the recent Black Friday You know just the start of this holiday spending spending was in. it was in the black we created records I mean I What was the stat from Amazon They sold a thousand products every single second a th000 products were sold by Amazon every single second for black Friday That's crazy I Don't know if I fully agree with this, just because the current trend is no spending is still very, very high. and the cushion of disposable income that was created because of the stimulus checks in 2021.

Um, it's still there. Obviously, it's going down and down and down as people are still continuing to pay the high prices due to inflation, the reinstitution of student loan repayments like all that stuff, So the cushions there, it's obviously dwindling away very, very rapidly. Now, Will there be a retrenchment retrenchment? That's a madeup word? Maybe. I Don't know.

Like at a certain point there's going to be a straw that breaks the camels back. But as of right now, people are spending spending spending and they don't necessarily have the like. Obviously, we know the ratio of paychecks to what's going on in the cost of the world is not really there. So that's why we're seeing a spike in credit cards.

Not necessarily a good thing by any means, but I Think it might have a a little bit more longevity to it than people are really appreciating with the Hawks for a long time. I've thought for a long time that their fears about inflation are misplaced, that the underlying theory that they are reflecting is that the one-time burst of monetary creation and fiscal stimulus that we saw in the United States and around the world during the pandemic, that that one-time shock could lead to a Perman permanent. Um, a permanent, persistent Uh price increases to ongoing inflation and I Don't see that Karen We've had a one-time increase in the money supply that generated onetime increases in prices and now it's over. Prices are flattening out right now around the world and as they flatten out the year-over-year changes in prices that are inflation, they're going to drop toward zero or at least toward Target if not to zero.

and in the case of Europe or the UK below zero if we get a credit crunch and a um uh, uh and a deep recession that follows that. So I think the Hawks right now are have a hard case to prove. You know the assertion that the last few ten of a percent of inflation are going to be the most difficult that has no basis in fact or experience or Theory And the observation is that prices are stabilizing now across the board and that to my mind sets a course for monetary policy in the new Year that's probably going to involve involve uh, not a good bit, but a sub not insignificant amount of interest rate reduction car I Want to just tap into your view on how the US consumer is holding automatically. Sounds so much more smart if you have a European ACC Americans are still spending but a lot of it is taking place.

Can't hear I'm Max it out. this is just behavior is just slowly turning around thanks to you do any Forex Trading We're don't see a point in it. yeah Karen You hit the word, you hit the words the the story right on the head There slowly turning around. All right.

Consumers are just waking up to the fact that they financing they're spending by running up their credit cards and that the interest on those credit cards are over the top. out of control. Off the hook right now and that's going to lead to I Think a retrenchment in consumer spending as we get into the New Year now. Is that enough to cause a recession? I Don't know, right? we've never seen anything quite like this before.

I I Can guess it'll certainly cause a Slowdown but is it enough to throw the economy into recession right now? Our hypothesis at high frequency economics is that it won't cause a recession, but it will lead to a Slowdown and that's our forecast for the new year. But the risk is, and I agree. it's a non-trivial risk that consumers get into trouble. We've seen figures out of the New York Fed that show that delinquencies on credit cards are up, burdens are up, and uh, real incomes have just started coming back again and not by nearly enough to cover some of the increases in the debt burdens that we're seeing.

So credit to the household sector consumer credit credit cards. That's where the downside risk is. That's where the risk to this Goldilocks forecast is. and I'm watching it.

But until we have a change in facts, I'm not prepared to predict that it's all going to come, that the wheels are going to come off the bus. Honestly, a little bit more based than I thought it would be. but just want to let you know just since we were talking about credit cards and spending in the holiday season. Uh, here's how the stocks typically perform in a presidential election year.

So just talking a little bit about seasonality. Yes, we know that there is a Santa Claus rally basically a third of the way through October all the way until about halfway through January On a seasonal basis, the market tends to favor the Bulls Does that mean it fav them every single year? No, that's not how seasonality works. it's just more of looking like historically. If you sum it all up, who's the general winner? Um, so it doesn't tell you something about the specific year you're in, but it tells you all about the deck and whose favor is it stacked in historically.

So right now obviously we know that there's a Santa Claus rally and it thus far appears as if yes, this year it'll be playing out. But I thought about. Well, okay, we're coming up to somewhat of a special year here in the US We have an election year and I thought it'd be interesting to dive into some of the numbers of obviously in the fouryear cycle of how the market generically performs I've did a bit more of a deeper dive on this, especially when I was doing some specialty streams on Rumble and what I need you to know is regardless of being Republican or Democrat, the market goes up. That is the general trend of the overall market, so you shouldn't be sitting there thinking okay, like the market does better all the time under Democrats and it's awful under Republicans or vice versa.

Always amazing with Republicans horrible with Democrats Overall, you're going to be getting um on average a return in the realm of 10% in the long term if you just hold and wait and wait and wait in something like the S&P 500. But anyway, specifically, post elction year average gain 3.3% midterm year 4% pre-election year which is in what we're in right now 10.4% and then the election year itself 6% I did do a little bit of a deeper dive and I must have been using a different data set because this is from stock Traders Almanac and the data I saw was actually saying that election years themselves out of the four is actually the weakest year. so I just want to let you know about that. Um I don't know how far back and the only thing I could think about the discrepancy in this data is maybe the stock Traders Almanac didn't go back as far as the data I saw the data I Saw went back a 100 years and was looking at the market.

Maybe maybe the trend has slightly changed if they're using the P say like 30 years. So that's the only thing that I want to bring up is yes. I Saw that pre-election years were very, very good. but the fact that they're here saying that the election year is like the second best when I've seen data set suggesting that it's actually the worst out of the four.

It makes me think that the data in the data set maybe is just slightly different, but this data coming from the stock Traders Almanac I Don't know how far back it particularly went, but the data I saw previously. um, it was really accounting. a hundred years worth of data. but just want to let you know I know a lot of people and obviously things are very, very political these days.

Everything I Don't know, Everything's super polarized and hey, whatever. as long as you have an informed opinion I think you have the right to your opinion. I Do think it's very, very silly when people have staunch opinions and it's based on any like just whatever fugazi. But what I want to let you know is great.

You have your opinion, don't let it get in the way of you making money and don't let it cause you to like do something stupid cause you even worse lose money. In the past two elections, both times as a new president was elected most previously Biden and before that Trump everyone was talking about how if you supported them, you're like d the economy going to rip and then if you were opposing them, everyone was calling out how the, uh, the stock market the economy was going to completely crash. Now, obviously in terms of a money-making thing, we care a lot more about the stock market. But the naysayers on both sides were clearly wrong because the stock market has still generically continued to the upside.

So I Get it. I Get that things are tense I Get that things are polarized. But when it comes to the market I Very, very much believe. Leave your emotions at the door.

Leave your maybe preconceived notions at the door. Pay attention to what's going on. Look at the fundamentals, Look at the technicals, Look at the price action. Don't just come in generically cuz you're all like fired up about whatever your ideological ideas are.

Don't let it get in the way of you missing out on money. and more importantly, don't make it force you to lose money. Leave your emotions at the door. be as analytical, cold, and robotic as it as you can possibly be when it comes to your trades and your Investments so just want to share that with everyone.

Um, there's not really net negative. generically when we're talking about investing. uh of who like I mean and you could slice this data up however you want like you really really can. and it just shows.

If you're a long-term investor, getting into the overall Market sitting and hodling is like you're going to outperform most hedge funds on this planet in the long term. Most hedge funds in a longer time frame do not beat the S&P 500. So if you want to be better than most hedge funds in existence, it's as simple as buying the S&P 500 and basically forgetting about it. Uh, I Think it was my interview with Scaramucci that he brought up the interesting fact Fidelity did research on all of their accounts.

all their client accounts the best performing account at Fidelity The Brokerage Obviously the massive money manager um, was people who pass away. people who obviously couldn't touch their account because they were deceased were the best performing accounts. So what does that tell you? It tells you that most of the time if you're an active Trader the odds are stacked against you. There are some active traders who like they're just complete outliers, but most active Traders would actually be better off buying the S&P 500 and forgetting about it and like moving on with their life.

So it's like, uh, an interesting split where you have a large chunk of people who would be better off never actively trading. and then you have a small chunk of people who are active Traders and make like just eye watering returns. So just wanted to share a little bit of that from a higher view but more specific to not only this week, but specifically today. So we started a little bit early today because of the ADP non-farm employment change they were expecting 130,000 came in at 103.

bad economic sign. good for the stock market because of the current phase of monetary policy. On top of that, they revise October's numbers down from 113 to 106. So similar thing at 8:30 we got the production numbers.

Obviously that continued to push the market to the upside: I Do want to let you know around 10 a.m. we're going to get the Bank of Canada interest rate decision. This is equivalent to our Fomc where they announce what are we doing with the FED fund rate. This is the equivalent to that to our neighbors up north, our M Syrup 11 friends to the north.

So Bank of Canada interest rate decision expectation is they keep it at 5% and then for all my energy Traders out there crude oil inventories. Classic Wednesday Coming in at 10:30 there's been a little bit more volatility there, so maybe worthwhile to pay attention to that today tomorrow. Thursday December 7th the normal initial jobless claims and then this: Friday uh, we are going to get the Uh unemployment change unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls, average hourly earnings all coming out an hour before the market Market opens this Friday so pay attention to that. couple more things today.

Kind of a quiet Thursday and then Friday a little bit more exciting and then next week Gang Busters CPI Report: PPI Report: Fomc decision: Uh, most likely I'm getting a haircut, so there's a lot of major things going down next week. Um, so make sure you have every single day on your calendar marked off in red because it's going to get a little bit crazy. Not so crazy though. in the world of earnings.

Uh, today after the market closes GameStop A lot of people excited for that. um, just you see in the price action popped up. Uh, is their Fomo well founded? I Don't know we're going to find out in the earnings comes out after the market closes today. Uh, to me, it's going to be like a Fe or famine situation either.

They report good earnings, have special things to announce, and the market keeps going and it gets crazy. Or right now there's already Fomo built in and if it doesn't meet those expectations, there's going to be a brutal fall off. So to me it's a big feast or famine situation. I Don't really see it being like a quiet reaction by any means.

Um, so obviously GM after the market closes today. If you're interested in the world of AI C3 AI reporting after the market closes In the world of EV charge point, they're reporting. but overall that we're just not in earning season, earning season is effectively over. so there might be some of these names that you're interested in, but just overall it's we have a couple weeks of a l time and then we're going to get back into the next earning season which we'll be wrapping up the like obviously the calendar year of 2023.

So um, on the individual Equity front. Kind of quiet in terms of earnings and those fundamental reports, but obviously we could always see some exciting movement in terms of price action, and we could get into that in one second. For those of you who haven't already, Mc. Locals.com this is where you could sign up to get the free Weekly Newsletter It's also the connection to the Gooni Discord server if you want to trade with me, other people.

Bunch of fun stuff going on in there. But anyway, in Back to the newsletter that is free Mac. Locals.com I break down the previous week I set you up for the next week I give you all the major macroeconomic events I talk about all the earnings coming up and I kind of highlight the ones that I think you're going to be interested in. and then most importantly I give you the seasonality for every individual day of the upcoming week for today Wednesday December 6th Leaning Bullish Over the past 25 years worth of data, the Bulls have won this day 52% of the time, so just better than flipping a coin.

But what's more interesting is the profit factor of 1.49 If you haven't heard this term before, profit factor in the world of trading, think of it this way: 1.49 That means for every dollar spent, A149 has been returned, so net ahead by .49 so 1.0 would be neutral. Every dollar spent has returned a dollar so perfectly neutral. So anything above one for a profit factor is good. Anything below one for profit Factor Not so good.

Anyway, here's a look at the equity curve of buying at the S&P 500 technically the Futures Contract at open selling at Clos on this individual day over the past two and a half decades pretty Rocky You had a little bit of a bullish push a pretty rough year about 5 years ago and ever since then, a pretty decent recovery. So to me not necessarily a crazy bullish day. but I would definitely argue. Leaning Bullish.

Uh, and then on top of that, I kind of update you on the options. uh, trading strategy. the D Gen Zer DTE Um, in the month of Uh November I think it actually I think this is technically wrong I think it went 33 for 36 because I think I might have accidentally counted December's numbers in there. So I think it went 33 for 36.

So pretty good 33 out of 36 trades. I'm going to take that and then I do some chart breakdown but overall things are looking bullish. I Mean we're seeing the Spy climb Right now we're seeing bcoin climb. We're seeing Bonds climb.

We're seeing Yields fall. We're seeing the dollar fall right now. On the very short time frame of how things are looking in pre-market it looks as if the Bulls are in control. but obviously does that mean it's going to hold all day? No, not necessarily.

We should wait for Market open and we might want to pay attention to the Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Five things to know before that stock market Bell goes Ding ding ding ding today Wednesday December 6 December Chill stocks were on a rocket last month I would argue they're still on a rocket now. Um, and also shout out to whatever the CNBC intern was like Drinking or smoking. That's kind of funny December chill soft Landing in in sight you know I'll be the first one to admit that like I Did not think that our government def fed any people within positions of power would ever be able to pull off the soft Landing but it looks like the odds are increasing of it so my hats off to them for sure.

Bitcoin builds Yes! Bitcoin is ripping ripping ripping. I'm going to be covering an interesting Bitcoin story probably right after market opens, so we're going to come to that in a second. Uh, Broadband Warning that I don't think it's really going to impact many of us I mean feel free to check this out if you want, but not really in our particular for tape wall Street's new not Trump uh Nikki Haly getting a lot of funding Um, so we're seeing DeSantis and Ramaswami in terms of polling, go down, down, down, we're seeing Nikki Haley pick up up up and she's also getting that with funding. so her popularity is going up obviously still considerably far away from Trump in terms of the poll numbers that are reported.

but she is getting more funding and it seems like for whatever reason Wall Street is starting to support her. Um, so just I I'm not saying I do or don't support her, just basically reporting on the news. It's kind of interesting that news networks can report on the news and it's understand that it's a neutral like Viewpoint and you're just like reporting on the news, but when like, uh, a content creator, the world's largest Pico influencer reports on it like their assumption is that I do or don't agree I'm I'm literally just reporting on the news I'm not telling you you should or shouldn't like Nikki haey I think you're an adult I Think you could come up with your own opinions literally just telling you that yeah, in terms of polling, she's now the second I Don't know if she's officially yet, she's on her way to becoming the second most popular GOP Presidential candidate right below Trump I Don't think she's officially un like dethrown to Santis from more of like that like I Guess what salutatorian type of a thing? Um, but she's up there and Ramas Swami Actually, surprisingly taking quite a bit of a dive I Thought it was interesting, but anyway, early early this morning, if you're tuning in right now, things are looking good. We got some production numbers.

we got some payroll coming in weaker than expected weak economic sign, potentially showing that the economy is slowing down pumping the breakes, which is what we want to mean that we're fighting inflation. so uh, bad economic news coming out this morning, which is good for the stock market. and that's why we are seeing things up and up and up now. Obviously when the market gets open, we'll look into the options.

Uh, we'll do some chart breakdowns, but the major thing I Could tell you right now is things are looking pretty bullish. So at Market open at 9:30 we'll do our Dgen trades. I Think you guys are you guys on number 16 right now? If you guys hit today, Are you on your 16th win in a row? I Mean we've been doing some Dgen stuff in this performance account um in the world of Futures and blew my mind away. So you guys basically started at 50k, ran it up to 53, then we had to restart it because you passed the test, then from 50 you're rent it up to 55 I took out 2K so I can buy even more accounts and I actually I'll show you that right now.

when I say I bought more accounts so we could do more trading. look how many I got to pass recently? Um so this PA account and I know it's a little small if anyone knows how to change the settings to make this font bigger. Anyway, this is the account you're trading. uh I took out 2K so I could buy other accounts and then 1, 2, 3, four, five, five of them I got above that 3K limit.

So then we could pay to get these to get moved over. So basically not officially, but basically effectively pass the test on five additional accounts. which I just think means we could be even more degenerate in here so we could have a YouTube chat versus a rumble chat versus AI versus my cat versus me. We can make it a multi-way competition to see who the best account Traders are in here.

So um, these are all above the 3K limit I just need more time to pass. so I basically just need to trade I think six more days in a row and then we should be all good. all good, all good, all good. So uh, but obviously you guys are still running this PA account up here which has been.

you guys have been dominant. So I just want to make sure I have it right. Oops this was the wrong order this would have. this would have been bad.

this would have been bad. All right. cool. I think I have it set up.

Nope, this is also the wrong order. Good thing I Looked at this this morning, this could have been cataclysmic. Um, all right. So everything I believe is now set up properly for that market.

open trade. I'm excited I think you guys are going to crush it as you normally do. Uh, so we're going to do that at Market open. I do have an interesting Bitcoin crypto story for you just because Bitcoin crypto eth and like a lot of the altcoins are absolutely ripping.

um so that's going to be super fun. Bonds are looking so good I'm happy that Tesla had a push yesterday cuz one of my swing positions has been a Tesla put credit spread so I needed above 235 as of Market close on Friday So I'm hoping with today's push that I don't know I'm hoping that I can capture most of my maximal profit Prof and just take it and just not carry the risk for the next two days. Speaking of that, I do want to remind you that I'm not going to be streaming on Friday Um I need to be supporting my fiance who's running her first ever. Marathon So we are going to be flying out to go to the marathon Thursday evening and then she has her Marathon obviously uh Friday and then I think there's like some Afterparty stuff on Saturday So I just want to let you know what's going on this particular Friday won't be here um I But yesterday I realized that allegedly where we're staying has good Wi-Fi So I still might be able to do a morning stream on Friday because of the unemployment report I don't necessarily want to leave you high and dry.

so I'm going to figure it out I'm going to figure it out I think there is a way that I'll be able to stream the unemployment report to all of you on Friday Um so I'm going to figure it out. My plan is to bring some of my gear with me to make it possible just so we can chat about it and whatnot. Um, so I'm doing I'm doing my my best. Um, very, very quickly though it is Wednesday and even though you guys have been absolutely horrible at it I feel at this point we're so deep into the season that I I I just need to keep with it.

Um I'm talking about the Pickham League. Uh, you guys allegedly know about sports and allegedly know about odds and allegedly know about who's going to win. but uh, I want to let you guys know that your picks have been horrible and I'm in seventh place And the actually the person who's winning the league is my fiance. So I'm never going to hear the end of that.

So out of a 12p person League we're in the bottom half and I am 10 points behind my fiance who is winning the league. So I'd like to be the first person to thank you guys for ruining my life. All you guys had to do was pick the winner of the game. You didn't even have to pick the spread or anything like that.

You guys couldn't even pick the winner of the game. So once again, thank you for ruining my life. So anyway, on that note, let's see who's going to win this week. Um, uh.

First one: Pats versus the Steelers I Feel like that's obviously the Steelers right? Pats versus the Steelers Pats versus the Steelers Anyone anyone, anyone, anyone? Pats versus the Steelers Uh, the Steelers are favored by six and it's in Pittsburgh I Mean it has to be the Steelers right? Really? Nevada Maverick are going with the it has to be the pat um Panthers and the Saints I'm going with the Saints uh, Lions and the Bears I'll go with the Lions Texans and the Jets Who do you guys think? Texans and the Jets The Texans are favored by 5.5 but it's in New Jersey Texans versus Jets. That could be an interesting one. Texans V Jets Texans is my first one. Texans Texans Okay, I'll go with the Texans Colts versus the Bengals.

Uh, that's supposed to be a close one. The Colts are favored by one and it's in Ohio. It's in Ohio Colts are favored by one. So Colts versus Bangals Who do you have? Who do you have? Who do you have? Colts versus Bengals Bengals Colts Bengals Colts You guys are kind of 5050 on this one.

Bengals Bangals All right I see Bengals B I See more votes coming in for Bengals Jags and Browns Uh, the Browns are favored by three and it's in Ohio Uh, Jags versus Browns Browns are favored by three. It's in Ohio and apparently it's going to be rainy. Jags versus Browns Jags for sure Jags QB hurt uhoh Browns All right. I'll go with Browns Uh, we have the Rams and the Ravens I'm going with the Ravens, the Bucks and the Falcons who do you guys have bucks and Falcons Falcons are favored by by 2.5 It's in Atlanta Falcons favored by 2.5 it's in Atlanta Also going to be rainning for them Uh Bucks versus Falcons Bucks versus Falcons bucks Falcons bucks Falcons Oh, you guys are 50/50 on this one.

You got Falcons Falcons blah blah blah football blah Hey, you're a football. Birds bucks bucks. FAL Dude, you guys are really 50/50 on this one I Guess that's because it's going to be a close game. Someone needs to make a compelling argument for this one.

someone. they make they play indoors. haha. Yeah, but it's still kind of sad.

Still kind of sad. All right. Uh Vikings Raiders and the Vikings are favored by three, but it's in Nevada Nevada Nevada Nevada It's in Nevada Vikings versus Raiders Vikings All Day Raiders Vikings Fox Show Vikings Vik More Vikings Uh, Broncos versus Chargers. The Chargers are favored by 2.5 and it's in California.

So we have Denver versus LAN Los Angeles. Who do you guys have bronos? sadly? Broncos Broncos All right, we're going with Broncos and the other ones are obvious I mean Eagles versus the Cowboys. There's no way the Cowboys win. They suck.

uh Packers versus the Giants Packers obviously. and then the Dolphins versus the Titans. That's pretty obviously the Dolphins so I'm going to lock those in I Do appreciate the help. um.

I Say that a little bit tongue and- cheek because you guys have arguably Ruined My Life by not only having a poor performance for my account, but specifically allowing my fiance to win this entire pick them. League I will never hear the end of it. So not only am I mad at you I'm also disappointed I'm mad I'm disappointed. Dare I say it metaphysically disgusted.

So your performance for this particular NFL season has been horrendous. It's been horrible. It's been dismal. I Implore all of you to get better at it.

So by the time we are here next year, I don't have to live with this lifelong embarrassment. Yes, we are at some serious lows right now, but a little silver lining here is if we end up winning next year, well, we'll be on the tippity top of the mountain. So I'm going to be honest with you right now, it's been bad. It's been worse than bad.

It's been something that I hope the history books don't pick up on I Have a feeling that my fiance is currently Contracting a history book writer to ensure that it is documented in the history of time, but I'm hoping that the next chapter you guys will not take this as a barrage of insult. but if anything, inspiration to literally just be better. Ju ju, just pick better. Just be right.

How about that? How about that? So I don't know, there's not many weeks left. I Don't think there's going to be there is still something to fight for. obviously I want to be in the top half. Obviously, that's something worthwhile to fight for.

but I I think the championship is far far out of our grasp. Camille Holy baby! Jesus Happy 32 months! It's been a really fun ride. Could you please take a look at Iwm and Emx potential? invest? uh, inverse Head and Shoulders forming on The Daily and latter. Uh, thank you.

All right Iwm Envx I WM Nvx All right I Got that all documented. but before we get to that, obviously wheel of Destiny Time wheel of Destiny black clearly means the market going into black AKA Green AKA Bullish the other. Ooh, my hair is not perfect. We should probably fix that before we.

and then red is red. That's bearish. So this wheel has never been wrong. It's obviously imbued with a lot of extra luck.

It's the wheel of Destiny for a reason and for those of you who are saying hey, you just bought that off of Amazon for $60 you're wrong and you're being silly I Got this from a magical magical magician man in the I don't know the the in Mordor I don't know where I got it he just gave it to me. He's like hey, this will predict the market forever So let's do it. Green says Green Market Confirmed bullish. Um, this isn't financial advice.

this is life advice Market Guaranteed to be amazingly green today. Um, it's not my decision, it is is the decision of the magic Market Gods above. But it's green for sure it's locked in. Um, this isn't my opinion of the market.

This is like what has already been decided for the market. I Want to be very, very clear about this? Not my opinion of the market, but literally what