's going on moon gang. I hope that you're wearing some clothes that i i suppose are a little bit more appropriate for a funeral because the overall market'm talking about the dow the nazik the s p. The russell all just got some really bad news today aka. Very bearish news.

So this video is my best attempt at making a little bit of a warning to all of you watching this right now. I'll be getting into what in the world's going on with inflation. The yield curves. I'll be talking about what the fed.

Members said today and those comments were absolutely ridiculous. But just to be fair there is some silver lining if you're paying attention to jimmy aka gamestop that had a phenomenal day. So we'll be talking about that breakout. And i also want to get into the recent saga with twitter.

Which is in a little bit of a lawsuit right now. But hey also had a very good day in the market. So i kind of want to break down all the good the bad and the ugly. But before we get into that if you enjoy this type of content.

Don't forget to drop a like leave a comment and join up with the moon gang by hitting the subscribe button and now with all that out of the way. Let's get rocking. I'm not quite sure how to start unpacking. All the craziness that was the trading day of wednesday july 13th.

So i. Figure let's just jump right into the. Fire at. 8 30.

Am. Today an. Hour before the market opened inflation. Rose 91.

Percent. In june. Even more than expected as consumer pressures. Intensify and as you might have just seen.

This popped up dow slides 200 points stocks dip as inflation hits its highest level since 1981. This is literally just breaking as i'm filming this right now. We are at a four decade high level of inflation. You've probably heard me.

Say that before you've probably heard that from a lot of people paying attention to markets. The issue is it keeps getting worse and worse and worse. So here's really how things played out today. We all got up we got a.

Nice iced espresso and then we were waiting for the 8. 30 am. Cpi report. The consumer price.

Index basically how expensive are things getting to buy well the line in the sand was 88. And if you have missed what was going on it came even higher this estimation was already sky high and the fact that we exceeded it showed how bad inflation truly is now before we unpack that i just want you to know on thursday. July 14th. The producer price index final demand that's coming out.

At 8 30. And then on friday. We're getting retail sales that's what we have on the docket for the remainder of this week. But now back to what we got today the cpi report.

What does it mean well here are the actual numbers year. Over year it came in. At. 91 percent we.

Expected 88 and month. Over month it was. 13 when we expected 11. This jump.

This monthly jump is the worst jump. We've seen since 2005 and then when you're talking about core cpi. As in you're not talking about energy and food that's what core is like you're taking that out of. The equation we came in year over year at 59 expectation.

Was 57 and month. Over month obviously up 07 versus 05. And then this is the biggest jump. We've seen i believe since the early 1980s so we're breaking the kind of records that you don't want to be breaking moving on when you see the breakdown of the cpi report.

This is the warning. This is how much it sucks to be the average retail trader investor or just person trying to be in our economy in our world. Really basically a person trying to pay bills look at the price increases year over year. Fuel oil has almost doubled gasoline up 60 percent gas utilities.

It just goes higher and higher and higher. It's not some crazy thing going on in your brain. That you're like i just feel like i'm not being able to stretch my dollar as much as i have in the past you were 100 right and we have the numbers to prove it the overall economy. Right now not looking the best especially relative to is pay going up yes.

Unfortunately. It's not going up as much as the prices of everything else so the net difference is still a noteworthy loss now just so you know at the end of the month. There's a lot of things going on in fact. There's a lot of things going on from right now all the way until the end of the month.

But one of the major things at the end of july is we're going to get the next. The preliminary data for our gdp numbers for q2 and we're going to see how things are looking last. Quarter it was officially an economic. Downturn we dropped by 16.

Percent. The next one if the economy is not strong if we keep shrinking that'll be two quarters back to back that the gdp did not grow it shrunk. That's the definition of recession. And as i just pointed out inflation sky high inflation.

Plus. A economic downturn that's known as stagflation. What i don't get about this. And i don't get a lot of things in this world.

But this is one that really sticks out to me and yesterday. I pointed out how jim cramer was telling us hey. Everything's fine. This is probably the bottom.

We're close to it i vehemently disagree looking at reading all the tea leaves. Seeing the writing on the wall. Things are not good right now. Now do i think we're going to all of a sudden go to a 2008 issue great depression issue those types of sell offs no but to say that we're at a bottom.

I just don't see how if you look at the inputs to the cpi you can say that this is the last hot number that will be the theme for today. Now it might be and there's a little bit of truth to this because commodity prices over the past two ish months have been coming down. And that's usually a strong leading indicator and a couple months later when the commodity prices come down. It takes a little bit to permeate throughout the.

Economy so i hope for everyone that the reading today of 91. Is the spike. I i hope that's the max level and i hope things calm down because i know there's a lot of average joes like you and me who are feeling this pain. I have to bring this up kramer said it usually the inverse cramer is pretty spot on and i did want to cover this one a little bit later he tweeted out last bad number.

I don't know we have a lot of things going on we have a lot of things going on there might be one more month. I would say depending on how quickly the depreciation and commodity prices hits the economy that'll be bringing inflation down. We're gonna have retail sales this friday. We'll see how aggressive retail buyers are there's a couple things.

But just to tweet out that this is the last bad number. I don't know man. I am about to go through a couple things where things could get very very hairy for example. The yield curve inversion between the 10 year and the two year rates reached biggest point since 2000 now i got a couple questions about this so i think i can make it a little bit better to explain how this all goes of what this yield curve.

Thing is so basically you have a normal graph on the bottom axis here. You have the maturity. So all the way from like a one month bond. All the way up to like a 30 year and it just gets bigger and bigger and bigger as you go out in maturity and then on the top here.

You have the yield of that bond of like basically your kickback for being in the bond. Um. And it it's pretty low all the way up to i don't know roughly let's call it like 35. Typically it looks like this this is healthy.

The longer your money is tied up the more of a yield. You're gonna get let's say roughly that the two year is there and let's say. The ten year is here the people like to watch the two and a ten the shorter your maturity that's going to be more so controlled by the fed so when the fed sees there's inflation and they're like hey. One of our tools is to raid.

The fed fund rate well that's going to push this up well. When the economy is not looking the best people take their money out of equities and futures and options and crypto and they go into bonds because it's a safer place to put money and you might as well take a yield well. When people buy bonds it pushes the bond price up because there's more demand. But it brings the yield down.

So you're in this weird scenario. Where the fed is spiking things up so that puts the short term maturity. Higher and then all of a sudden people are scared about the over economy. Which brings the longer maturation ones down and all of a sudden that's the yield curve flattening.

And it's actually gotten so bad that people have been running into the 10 year. The fed's going absolutely crazy so now we're in this scenario. Where it's actually inverting and the difference between it it's the biggest since we've seen since 2000 and just for those of you keeping square. At home the two.

Year yield is. 3136 and the 10 year's 2915. That should be the exact opposite. And what it tells us is people are worried about the current state of the market.

They're like hey i don't even want to take the risk. I'd rather just go to a quote unquote safe haven because it's better than the craziness that is the market will this most likely be the extreme of it like do we believe kramer in saying. That this is the last bad number well as soon as the cpi report came out today. We saw a dramatic switch in what i'm showing you here.

Yesterday's update video the chance of a 75 bips rate increase in the next fomc meeting that's a federal open market community meeting that's where the fed decides how much they want to either increase or decrease or remain. Unchanged. The interest rates well yesterday. There was a 90 chance of a 75 bips after the cpi rate.

Today that dropped down to 24. And now. There's a 76 chance of a hundred bips aka one percent as in hey. The numbers.

We're seeing this is most likely going to be forcing the fed to be extremely hawkish. They can raise interest rates they can be more aggressive with quantitative tightening. This is all in an effort to battle inflation. But it has a side effect of putting downward pressure on pretty much all markets equities and futures and crypto well the fed didn't want to be left out of the party today and they're like let's throw some gasoline onto the fire fed's bossing everything is in play when asked about the possibility of a hundred bips july rate hike.

He said. This around 2 pm and it was crazy to see the reaction right around two was here that statement was this bar pretty crazy uh before i get too far off just. So you know the spy today down point five percent. The q is down point two and iwm pretty much break.

Even you might be thinking hey. I see that it's red. But everything you're saying is pretty negative. I'm right there with you i find today's action to be ridiculous.

And it reminds me of the saying in the market. It can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent to me. I think. It's a matter of time before the overall market gets the rug pulled on it and my first real target.

I will be looking at 370. 250 but i'm really looking at the gap full of 36940 i'm seeing the macd's getting weaker weaker weaker we're red on the day we gapped down we ended up doing the upside gap fill like i said. I'm of the opinion that for the overall market. We still have not hit 20 22's low.

I think there's more pain to be seen inflation sky high. The fed's about to be more hawkish everything costs more money we're going to see what's going on with retail. But wages are not keeping up there's various things that are indicators maybe i'm wrong maybe i'm right obviously this is my opinion. I would love to get your opinion.

But these are the technical levels that i'm paying attention to and i think today's action even though it was red. I'm surprised we didn't see more of a capitulation and that's leading me to think that today was just a little illogical and i think it was a bit of a fluke and i think it's a matter of time before the rug actually gets pulled well things got even crazier with the fed so this guy around two bostik was saying okay. 100. And remember that's more hawkish.

Which puts more pressure well then barking says. There is near term recession. Risk. I swear what is the fed smoking.

They must be on that devil's lettuce because they have these ideas. We're like what's the craziest thing that we could say and the only thing that i thought was more crazy is that all this happened and then the market was showing some intraday strength. We're in the upside down. It's all crazy and just to really illustrate this point.

We're talking about the r word probably not the first one that you're thinking about they're talking about recession. Look at the amount of times. The r. Word is being used in publications.

Especially related to finance. The last time we saw this was when we were literally in a recession. Because of the rona period. We are once again spiking now this to get a little bit more specific a lot of these are going to be relating to earnings especially.

Now that were underway with earnings season. Today delta reported they beat on revenue. But they miss on earnings per share. Obviously oil is higher and their margins are less so that's why delta was down today what's about to get interesting is thursday and friday this week.

We have a lot of banks jp morgan morgan stanley city wells fargo blackrock pnc y melon it's always going to be interesting to see what these financial plays are going to be talking about last time around they were obviously optimistic about raising the rate because as the fed jacks up the rate. They actually make more money. But last time around the ones. Who were doing well were actually ones with trading desks and the banks that didn't have trading desks actually ended up missing.

So i want to listen to that and pay attention to that but more so i want to see what they say about consumers are there average deposits going up is there magnitude in their accounts. How is that looking there's some information. We can glean from certain banks of what's going on and we're also going to get that pretty much bolstered by the retail sales number on friday. Just to see how strong is the average consumer right now so those are the types of things that you should definitely be paying attention to talking about individual companies.

The one that i was just jaw droppingly impressive today was gme. It was up three percent in all of this craziness. But on top of that we're pretty much breaking out. Now i do want to point out a couple of things it was at 14128.

When it closed. Which was a nice gain of three percent. The breakout levels one more closer to 142 145. And now we also have this down trend line that's closer to 152 and that psychological level of 150.

So we're pretty much in this land. I would say this region not really no man's land. But a region of obvious supplies somewhere between 145 152. We got some technical breakout.

But now the next level of resistance is super close so i'll be watching that we got the macd crossover. So there's clearly some bullish momentum going on with gme and it's coming off the news of the fact that their nft marketplace is rocking. So maybe people are liking that maybe there's just some shorts who are finally throwing in the towel. There's various things that could be going on.

But it all boils down to bullish price action for those of you who are curious. Here's the most recent short interest numbers for gme uh estimated shortages of the free float. 23 cost to borrow 36. Now gme wasn't the only stock individual equity that had some news today gotta talk about twitter had a good day it was up eight percent after recently getting demolished also getting its own gap fill right here.

Here are twitter's biggest accusations against musk in the lawsuit. Twitter's going up because apparently the investors and people who are willing to invest more or invest for the first time are liking that they're trying to take elon to court in delaware. Over this whole acquisition debacle twitter on tuesday filed suit against elon musk to seek to hold the billionaire to his 44 billion deal to buy the company. Which would price twitter.

At 54 20. Musk. Claimed twitter violated the deal agreement by failing to provide the information. He requested to verify the number of spam accounts on its platform and failed to proceed with the ordinary course of business by conducting layoffs so their main complaints musk's own words have helped push the share price down.

Musk allegedly failed to make some meetings with twitter about spam. Musk's exit strategy is a model of hypocrisy and bad faith musk allegedly agreed to seller friendly terms twitter claims. It wasn't required to hand over information unrelated to completing the merger muscular just doesn't want to weather. A market downturn.

Really the best way. I could sum this all up is it all came down to the bots twitter. In their sec. Filings.

Has said. There's about five percent of all accounts are bots. I think we all know that's a lie elon was saying. It's closer to 20 and they said okay.

We'll give you the data for it they gave him some data. And he said. This is useless and then he pulled out of the deal and now it's a legitimate lawsuit you could see it but i want to direct your attention to page 32. This is so freaking funny so part 78 whatever this is it's talking about the monthly active users.

The bots that type of a thing and perahag who is the current ceo of twitter. I do question how long he's going to be there has this very legal friendly pr friendly like appropriate. I should say not really friendly response to what this is all about and this is now in a court filing. This is the world's richest man.

Responding to this ceo whose pr and legal firm. Look this all over musk responded with another disparaging. Tweet poop emoji. That is absolutely hilarious in fact.

If you made it to this point in the video. I just want to know can you comment. This below. This is so freaking funny that this is a huge 44 billion dollar company allegedly the world's racist man and now their court case includes a poop emoji.

If this is a televised court case. I think it's going to completely shadow endorph. The excitement that society had with the whole johnny depp amber. Heard thing i mean this this could be taking it to the next level.

I absolutely love it so make sure you are commenting that below now last. But not least. I do want to let you know what's going on in the world of crypto or at least an interesting interview. Where it just shows how full of some people are pay attention to the questions that sorkin.

Asks and then the fact that the ceo of blackfy. Didn't respond to it at all. It's honestly a little awkward. Zach you have tried to differentiate block fi.

Frankly i think i went on twitter from celsius and also basically from lehman brothers. But without ftx's help at this point would you be filing for bankruptcy uh look andrew. We had a lot of options. And what we're optimizing for you know our board and myself as the ceo is always that the capital trent the capital markets transaction that achieves the best outcome for all of our stakeholders.

Our clients the team uh and our shareholders um and we are so different from some of the folks that you just mentioned uh in terms of their names. We've operated 100 of the time over the last few months. Our customers have earned over 575 million dollars in interest in our in our accounts. Where they earn yields.

Including 10 million over the last month. So it's night and day like you can't compare goldman to lehman brothers uh in terms of how they've continued to operate and so i think there's an analogy like that that with with the you know uh passing of time folks will realize. He's starting to stumble as he realizes he's come nowhere close to answering the question how different platforms like block fire are from some of those that may very well be but just just to the point. I raised without this rescue package was this an insolvent business.

All right first swing was a swing and a miss what about swing number two without ftx stepping in to save blockfy would it have been insolvent the the point is that what we saw looking at our platform. And what we anticipate may happen over the next six months. It was clear that we wanted to bring additional capital into the business with that as the overlay. We went out to the market and we got the best transaction.

We possibly could and now the company is in a stronger financial position than it was a month or two ago especially in terms of the security that we provide for our clients let me ask you maybe in a different way uh equity equity value equity investors uh folks who had stakes in this company venture capital firms at stakes in this company are they getting wiped out as a result of this absolutely not getting wiped out so look you have to think about the valuation of block fi and what preferred shareholders are marking their books at in the context of we don't really need to continue it because he turns a question or the answer should have been yes or no into a two and a half minute clip. And i think it's just kind of interesting that this is what it's come to of people who may be trusted in block fi. When you're looking for direct answers. You can't look to wall street to get it it's just the sad day we live in it's always like your lawyers and your pr team has to look over everything and i honestly think that's a little bit.

What is exciting about the elon case or why people enjoy seeing what's going on because elon takes that whole legalese and pr stuff right out of the equation. By tweeting stuff that elon likes to tweet such as the poop emoji that's what i have for you this is your market wrap up for wednesday july 13th. Overall. It's a crazy day the warning for the overall market is things are bad i personally think.

There is still more downside. But there is silver lining situations such as gme which definitely performed today getting some nice bullish momentum. I would love to hear your thoughts and a comment below other than that have a beautiful day catch you in the next video.