Oh um, hello, hello, hello, happy, happy, happy happy! What day is it the sixth wednesday april 6th, i hope, you're having a kick-ass morning evening afternoon night, whatever time it is for you, i hope, you're having a good one, we're here to talk about the old stonk market from yesterday, all the way into the pre-market Session things are looking pretty brutal they're, looking pretty bearish they're, looking pretty red they're, looking pretty not fun unless you were playing it. That way, then you're probably pretty happy, because you definitely destroyed that trade uh. I myself not having the best time with these uh. Obviously my equities portfolio and not doing the best in my futures, i got stomped out of spy for a manageable loss and i'm just seeing what's going to go on with that today, so we're going to be getting into the nitty-gritty of what's going on in the Overall market this morning before that bell goes ding any ding, ding ding.

I think it's going to be important for us to discuss like what's actually prompting this. Why are we selling seeing a sell-off in pretty much everything? Actually, in fact, i could show you that right now look at the spy just getting hammered ever since 10 a.m. Yesterday, all the way to right now in real time, the nasdaq you have the dow in the bottom right here same thing - 10 a.m, all the way. Until now you have the small cap sector.

Everything is just getting really really beat up now. This is very much related to the fed and monetary policy, and i know that when we start talking about this stuff, i could feel it your eyes are glossing over you like dude. I just like don't care about this. I don't care about our newest stance.

On monetary policy and treasury yields flattening inverting and what's going on, i get that it's boring and i'll try to make it as enjoyable as i possibly can but understand. It is very important for you to be aware of this because, especially if you're trading, because it has a massive influence on the market, so even though, maybe like, ah, it seems like a little bit too like high level, maybe not directly, impacting your individual investments. It 100 is it's important to be tracking, what's going on in this so right here, the dow, the s p and the nasdaq all down in pre-market trading down point seven point or one percent, and one point six respectively, oil's up to 103 and yields the 10-year Yields are going up to 2.6 you're, seeing a big spike in 30-year uh yields as well like they're. These yields are going up because the expectation is that the fed is about to be as hawkish as they possibly can.

Folks, i'm not just talking normal hawkish. Maybe you read about this in your econ class. Maybe you saw a good youtube video of their like some guy with like a button-down shirt and glasses came in and he's like. Well, sometimes, we raise the fed interest rate and it's basically the amount of interest that is paid for big banks to loan money to other big banks, and this can sometimes have an adversary effect on the stock market and other times if they bring it down.

That's referred to being dovish, but then, when they put it up, it's also known as hawkish and here's what it does on unemployment. Folks is all that stuff most likely right. It is, but also it's not what we're seeing right now. What we're seeing right now is that jerome powell and brainerd and bullard and daley all these people who are members of the fed they called up spirit, halloween and they're like hello uh.

This is mr jerome powell. Am i speaking to spirit hi, mr powell uh. We thought you were the like busy with your job. Aren't you the fed president yeah? We are and we um we're gon na have an exciting meeting coming up here pretty soon and we're gon na need you to open early.

But, mr powell, it's it's only april. Like this, we're a halloween store, we're gon na open in october, like we normally do nope, that's not acceptable. We very much need you to open right now, all right, uh i'll, see what we can do. What are you looking for? That's a great question me and my buddies: we're looking for hawk outfits now that recording right there.

I took some creative liberties to it, but it's pretty much spot on with. What's going on, they called up spirit halloween and they got full avian full bird full hawk. Costumes and my prediction is coming into this next fed meeting they're going to descend from the skies above i don't know if it's going to be an open air meeting, i don't know if it's going to be more of a closed, dome and they'll be coming from The rafters - i don't know i don't have those details, but they are coming in in a full bird costume, full hawk, and what this means is. They are going to battle inflation.

Now a lot of people have been accusing them of policy error of doing too much during the pandemic and not doing enough recently to battle what they've been doing and remember when i say what they're doing they put almost nine trillion dollars into the economy. From may of 20, 2020 to may of 2021, 40 of the money in existence came into existence in that one year period like that's how crazy it is, they put nine trillion dollars. They're, like we don't care we're gon na type it on our computer, we're going to make up money we'll like copy control, v control paste pay space, pay cool by that by that by that mortgage-backed securities bonds, they were helping the repo market. They literally just made money up and they're like let's just keep the party going and most likely - and this is once again alleged and it's really just alleged in my own mind.

I have no proof of this, but just buying those yolo call options on their robinhood account. If i i mean, why would they not with that like type of crazy practice, and i guess action so this is that what we saw is referred to as quantitative easing. It's it's very, very good, for what they're trying to do is keep unemployment low, they're, trying to keep the party going and a side effect that is pushing the stock market higher and higher and higher. Well, now we're getting some readings that were pretty much done with coven.

The economy is looking very strong and when i say the economy, i'm really referring to some of the major gauges that they use, which is unemployment which just came in at 3.6, which is basically a record low. Looking really really good. So now they have no more reason to be that dovish they actually have to fight the inflation that they've produced by being so dovish, i.e being hawkish. Now, when they do this, obviously, ideally it brings inflation down to manageable levels, but a side effect of that is the opposite of being dovish.

The side effect is not good for the stock market and that's exactly what happened yesterday. Key people from the fed just spooked the markets, here's what they said fed governor lail, brainard and san francisco fed president daley spoke tuesday, emphasizing the central bank's commitment to fighting inflation through higher interest rates. So last month we saw our first interest rate increase of 0.25 before that we hadn't had one since late december of 2018.. So it's been about three years now we did it and we went from zero.

We were at the baseline of nothing. Then we went up to 0.25 and a lot of people were like you should have done five. Actually, one of the fed members bullard the whole time he's like we should be doing point five. We should be doing point five like we got ta fight this.

This is serious and now it seems like slowly but surely i don't know if he's actually doing it, but it kind of comes off this way of he's slowly but surely changing the mind of individual people within the fed to kind of get enough votes to do This so that's the first thing is one of the tools that they have available to them is increasing interest rates, that'll help fight inflation, but it also makes like it makes money less cheap um, with interest rates going higher it's harder to get money, especially on, like The big institutional level makes it like a little bit harder, which still relates to billions of dollars, most likely leaving the market and obviously, as people are selling the market goes down. So we're looking at the potential play out of a 0.5 interest rate increase, but on top of that, there's been rhetoric about fixing the balance sheet, as in balance sheet normalization, a balance sheet runoff whatever you want to call it, but you could also look up quantitative Tightening before we had quantitative easing qe now we have quantitative tightening q t or it looks like we're about to get it. I should say it hasn't really played out yet, but this is very hawkish you might have in my. I guess prep for this.

You might have been picturing just like a normal guy coming down in a hawk outfit quantitative tightening is so incredibly hawkish, especially when they're like hey, we might actually be doing it at a rapid pace. I don't want you to picture jerome powell coming down in a hawk outfit. You need a picture dwayne. The rock johnson like we are dealing with a serious hawk.

This isn't just like a run of the mill that you're driving on the highway and you're, like oh cool, hawk and then like your kids in the backseat, are like wait. What'd, you say and you're like nothing and they're like your music sucks and then you're like okay, but that was a hawk and then your wife's like. Why are you always arguing with them about birds? Anyway? That's not the point here: you're really getting distracted. This is a big bird.

This is dwayne the rock johnson. This is pretty much it's not as hawkish as they could get, but it's pretty hawkish is the point. I'm really trying to illustrate here so just picture the rock in a hawk outfit it'll really help us. It is a paramount importance to get inflation down.

Raising rates is what is necessary to ensure that again, you go to bed at night, you're, not worrying about whether prices will be higher considerably higher tomorrow. Well, okay, why didn't you fix this? Earlier i mean literally within the past month, they were still purchasing bonds, which is absolutely insane. So it's funny that they're now taking the stance of like okay. No, we got to fight it.

This is serious. It's like bro, like you're gaslighting, us again, you were gaslighting. This, when you told us that inflation was transitory and now you're taking it on as like you're, some sort of valiant like economic warrior, when a couple months ago, you made the policy that was making the situation still worse. That was three weeks ago.

This is crazy. It's the fed, they're professional gaslighters. This is absolutely insane how it's playing out and for you, uh, not beyond the fact that most likely, everything in your life is currently more expensive. Your rent, your gas prices, your food prices, like everything, supply chain issues on top of inflation.

Everything in your life is more expensive and our wage is going up yes, but they are not even close to outpacing the increase in the cost of just being a human and that's what this is kind of leading to right here is when this was discussed yesterday, We were at basically 4 55. We sold off we're getting a little bit of a gap down nothing too crazy. There is some support. We could see that, but what i want to remind you of and why i think there could be more vil volatility today, particularly 2 p.m.

2 p.m. Eastern. We get the fed notes and basically it's like an extra little write-up of the most recent meeting, and what i want to remind you about this is people are a little bit more antsy about the fed notes, because a lot like two times ago, we got it On january 5th - and this is when they first started talking about a balance sheet normalization and that led to a sell-off which led to more of an eventual larger sell-off, uh the most recent one, nothing too crazy, but this time at 2 p.m. People are very much going to be trying to know.

What's in those notes, they are released at two, it's publicly available, so you could check it. I could check it. We could discuss it later on, but depending on their aggression in it, how hawkish are they going to be? How dovish are they going to be if there's something that wasn't really discussed in their public interviews and that we're going to get information today so expect at 2 pm until market close, an abnormal amount of volatility, u.s futures fall after stock sell-off as traders eye fed Minutes and new russia sanctions u.s futures slip wednesday after sell-off the day before, as traders eyed minutes from the fed meeting once again coming out at 2pm today, et focus was also on possible new eu sanctions on russia. Following reports of war crimes in ukraine.

Yesterday, the eu banned coal imports from russia and now they're talking about, like other particular sanctions, really focusing on like hitting their energy business. Also a quick update about russia and we have some more uh. They did attempt to pay their bond payment in rubles. Just so you know, markets expect the fed to raise interest rates aggressively this year with a 50 basis.

Point hike in may remember the last one around was a 25 bips point now they're looking to double that up to 50., and this all has a big impact on yields. Yields are all ripping the the two, the five the 10, the 20 the 30. All of them are just ripping ripping ripping, which leads to this 30 year fixed mortgage crosses 5. So a lot of interest just continuing up and up and up surging interest rates, push mortgage demand down more than 40 from a year ago on the bigger picture.

What does all this lead to you're going to hear some people talking about yields and like okay? This is a sign of in like the yield inversion is the side of him. Like i guess recession we already have bad inflation. There's various things to consider, and i can understand that a lot of you paying attention to the overall market, it might feel like you are getting bombarded with this type of stuff day over day. The first thing i want to remind everyone is: have the yields inverted? Yes, historically, when that happens, it is a good signal, like an accurate, i shouldn't say good.

I should say an accurate signal that a recession is looming but understand historically, when this has happened. The average duration that needs to pass until we actually see the recession is 17 months. So this is not one of those things that the yields invert and the next day, it's like armageddon not like that at all, but even with what's going on between inflation, still the ukraine debacle, what's going on with our yields, what's going on with our fed, like The whole just picture right now supply chain issues. We do have our first bank that has officially stepped up and said we're calling for it.

Deutsche bank is the first big bank to forecast a u.s recession and right after that, we have more people as well. Billionaire investor leon cooperman says the u.s could enter recession in 2023, thanks to surging oil prices or aggressive, fed tightening leon. Cooperman thinks soaring oil prices or regressive. Fed policy could push the us into a recession.

In 2023, the billionaire investor doesn't see a downturn in 2022 and said he's still invested in the market. I think the fed has totally missed it and i think we have a lot of wood to chop so obviously, a very strong supporter of lumber men and lumber women as well now bringing it back to the whole russia thing and just obviously it's all connected with Russia and oil and the world economy and interest rates and the yields. This is all different pieces of like pieces to the overall puzzle. European council chief says russia, oil and gas sanctions needed sooner or later us eu to impose new penalties.

Remember yesterday they hit them with a coal man and now they're, looking to amp those up a little bit more kremlin denies wanting to kill zielinski despite reports that it tasks elite units with hunting down in kiev. So basically, yes, this is still going on. It has fallen quite a bit out of mainstream media's attention, but overall, what you really really need to know is basically whatever's being reported out of russia. You can kind of just assume it's most likely.

The exact opposite russians on forbes billionaires left have lost an average of 27 of their wealth over the past year. Uh that's brutal, but hey. That's really. The world we're in speaking of upset people trump is furious about the slow botched length of its truth, social platform.

According to reports, trump is frustrated by the slow launch of his truth. Social app, true social, was meant to be operational by late march, but many are unable to access it. An insider reported who did access the app said it was like a ghost town with no compelling post uh. I actually was able to get approved on it and i have to admit there is like currently a lack of users, but to me that's something that could be turned around and it kind of makes sense that he's also pissed off about it because uh his name Is strongly strongly associated with it so very quickly just to see dwack, because it's not really getting the users, it's not getting like the publicity or any of that we're seeing a pretty hardcore sell-off.

So anyone who caught this downside trip - i mean it - dropped 50 from march over the past month, we're down 50, so that was a pretty good bear side, trade now speaking of bear side just so you know for the overall market, i am watching the support at 446 then, we have some at 444 in terms of the tech sector, i'm watching well. Actually, all of these are a gap down the spy. The qs and the russell are all gap, downs, which means you have the ability to do. A quick gap-fill play to the top side, and the one thing that i was thinking about this morning is it seems like whenever i see everyone on social media like all of a sudden everyone's bullish, it seems like the market sells off everyone's bearish.

All of a sudden, the market pops. So i know this looks bad, but something about the voice in the back of my head is telling me like hang on. This might be one of those classics like you trap some people and then all of a sudden you rip it because really this is all related to the fed. So yesterday i feel like we priced in this concept of the fed's going to be more hawkish.

People are like okay, they might be doing a balance sheet normalization or aka runoff, and now the market is digesting a 50 bips interest rate increase. Well, that's kind of it like i feel like within one, and that was all day yesterday. Maybe today we get that all priced in and then from there. We take that particular shackle off of us, so just want to share my thoughts on that in terms of amc, the next support is at 1966.

It's down once again in pre-market did not have a good day yesterday same with gme same with the overall market, would love to see it recapture this trend line and then also just below 24. in terms of gme. We are pretty much at the support of 149. The next support i have is a little bit of a gap bill at 125.80.

I'm still in my one gme call it's not looking the best right now. The strike price is 170, but it does expire next friday. So i have a bit of time in terms of amc short interest: 21 percent cost to borrow is still low in terms of gme. The short interest is just above 21 costs to borrow a little bit more.

What you would expect at 8.7 for the overall market. 17 for the tech sector 13 and for the small cap sector 34.5 all right very quickly, just to look at crypto. We have a little bit of a sell-off and today is also the first day of that big bitcoin conference down there in miami. So if anyone's watching from there definitely a special shout out, but overall crypto had a very, very nice push and right now, it's you know it really from a technical perspective.

I would say this is just kind of like reasonable consolidation, honestly um, so not too worried there. In fact, hang on, we have a couple minutes. Let me switch this over. How is amc and jamie doing right now, a little bit of a pop? Let me drop this to the one minute.

Let me drop this to the one minute: the market. We have some support at 446. Also, this trend line would love to see the spy pot like bounce off of it, but that would relate to the market pricing in a more aggressive fed in terms of battling inflation. What was that other one that went crazy yesterday, ssl s-l nope, that wasn't it? What was that slo sso someone needs to help me uh.

What do we have? What was that ssl? I know atr had a pretty interesting day up. 6.7 percent lost that in pre-market trading sst. Thank you how's that one doing this was a low float that went crazy, crazy in the morning then came down um i mean it was still up on the day, but this is. This is a picture-perfect example of a low-flow insanity.

It pumps and i'm not calling it a pump and dump i'm just saying literally it has an insane pump and then the like steam kind of runs out, and then it's done. This is exactly why you want a trailing stop. This is exactly why you don't want to chase, but also, if you crush it, i mean there was a lot of people who made a lot of money on this one. Yesterday, i had no like part in it, but congratulations to you and i hope it was uh another.

I guess live example of some like good training like knowledge strategy and it's this concept that you shouldn't just like, go in and expect it to just continually rip and rip and rip, especially when you see the market um under a bit of pressure, the overall market. I'm referring to all right, that's what i have for you this morning. My prediction for the day is a little bit wonky. Yes, i see that people are calling for a short-term bearish move, but my thought is is like all of a sudden.

It seems like over the past month or two. It seems as if it's a good idea to fade like normal sentiment. So right now, i'm seeing a lot of people like panic like doom and gloom call outs and i'm like okay. Well, maybe we're at support.

Maybe we're gon na bounce and just kind of do the opposite of what everyone thinks it's going to do. That's kind of my vibe going into the day, and also in the very very short term, you always have the gap-fill plays to the upside till ray. Actually, yes, tilray had earnings, that's up right now it had uh. It did surprisingly well like it outperformed right now we're up 11 in pre-market.

We can definitely have this one up. Throughout the day i mean till ray is looking very nice um in tilray. I would love to see a break and a hold above eight dollars and then from there i'd be watching 8 30.. So that's my first watch until right, but uh and actually, i believe, had like a surprising profit.

So its revenue was down, but yeah look at it. Uh had a surprising profit on the corner when they were expecting a loss. So that's what's going on with tilray and i haven't seen them this morning, but i would expect uh like a sympathy play yes. Sndl is up, 1.4 cgc is up 3.25, which means the overall sector is up 1.5, so we'll leave till ray up for market open uh, but fundamentally they just had a good report.

What else do we have dm pick sent a gif? I made you lose okay, uh hang on. Let me write that down, so i don't forget to check just where's where'd. You guys put my pen not funny team, not funny in the slightest all right who's, the joker who hid my pen, that was my favorite pen. Oh there, it is sorry i didn't mean to accuse you guys that quickly, all right, so i need sweet, sweet, sweet uh, get their attention.

Let's get banned payment for order flow ban, pfof trending. I always like when that one's trending uh. What else do we have? Someone became a bot fighter, shout out, reddit haters keep making me buy mac cappuccinos. I can't believe they're hating on trey's new video buy a round of beers on me.

Bullish on ipa's thoughts go for it very bullish, high quality, brews right there, um reddit haters. I i don't. I go on wall street bets right now, because that's where i just get a source of enjoyment and laughter - and it makes me just like crack up so i'll - always have a special place for wall street bets in my heart uh. Just i've been on it for years now, and i just i think the community is absolutely hilarious in terms of other parts of reddit.

I know a lot of you are on it because you like reddit um, i'm not really much on those other ones anymore. Just because, like i don't think it's good for people's mental health to do that kind of a thing i know there's a lot of people on there who support me. I know there's a lot of people on there who don't support me, but it comes down to this other people's opinions of me, not really my business and what's the third thing you said, i can't believe people hating on trey's new video. Now this is one.

Unfortunately, i haven't seen that video um, but it did, i guess, even in my world, cause quite a bit of a ruckus, because i got a lot of dms. I got some dms that were very, very angry and just folks just so you know i don't control what trey makes so like people were like almost angry at me. That trey made a video, but i haven't even seen the video, so i don't really know how to respond to it, and even i i don't know what it was about. I don't know what he said that caused people to get so pissed off, and then there was other people who just reached out with like a little bit of, like, i guess, confusion and like i guess they needed clarity.

But unfortunately, if you're in that ladder boat uh, i i can't help, because i haven't seen the video so like. I can't really offer clarity on something i haven't like seen. Uh matt is getting sympathy um, dang that you need uh playing both sides of options. I'm trying to put it together of what trey's video made a lot of sense.

His video is right so playing both sides. So is he telling people to go long and short, or is he telling people to do calls and puts, or like all four like, like? I i haven't seen it right or wrong. It needs to look at. I agree with what trace is.

I have been doing the whole time. I got 4 000 shares playing, puts on amc hedging. My shares calls and puts oh i mean i guess i look at it. This way he's like i guess.

To put it bluntly, i don't give a what anyone does it's your money. People can have their own opinions like just because i don't think people should eat honeydew, i'm not gon na go out and like make my opinion on honeydew everyone else's opinion on honeydew, like yeah dude. What it's! I guess. The reason i haven't spoken about.

It is because it's a very complex process and like it's one thing to say: oh i'm hedging my position, but that requires a little bit of an in-depth math but like if people feel comfortable with hedging and, like you understand how to do it properly, have at It like that's a better way to engage in the market um it just. I haven't spoken about it because there's a lot of people in this community who are new to the market - and i just didn't want to like add on another sense of like confusion, and that actually explains some of the confusion that i got. And now i'm like. Making sense for some of the dms of like they're, like oh okay, like it's interesting and like just confusion on like how to properly hedge it.

In terms of like, how do you compute how much to do for your core size and that type of a thing um, if you learn it, it's a skill set and it's a skill set that can like make you extra money and, more importantly, it helps with Drawdowns it helps decrease the size of your drawdowns um, it's just something: it's another part of the market that can be learned, but also, i guess, on more of an important level and like what i've told you guys. This whole time is, at the end of the day, you're in charge of you. You got to do what's right for you, if you think it's the most appropriate thing to buy stock and hotel have at it. Do your dd do your research? If you want to get stock and get calls if you want to get stock and then hedge appropriately with puts, if you want to do it and not even do it appropriately because you're like hey, i love this digital casino and i do want to do what I want it is all you, i think, one of the biggest things that, like maybe isn't spoken about enough in this community.

That, like is really really important to me, is this concept of i hate, maybe like the ego or the narcissism of these people who work on wall street and they just think that they know better, and they think that they can tell you what to do with Your money, my mindset, is it's your money. You work for your money. You should be able to do whatever you want with it. If you want to buy stock, if you want to buy options, if you want to go, invest in pokemon cards, i do not care, and why should i care? Because it's your money, i was raised to not look at other people's pockets.

It is your money. You should be worried about your own financial situation. You should be worried about your family's financial situation because i can guarantee this a random on the internet is not going to end up paying your bills unless you are one of the luckiest people who runs into mr beast, but for the rest of us, it's you. It's you who's going to protect you.

It's you who's, going to make your life better. It's not! Some like dumbass account on the internet. That tells you like you got to do this. You got to do that.

It's your money! Do what you want with your money? How dare you you live in his brain and his cats? Uh i mean once again. I can't really speak too in-depth about it, because i haven't watched it but uh. It's i heard about it. I think i saw like some clips, like some people clipped it on twitter, so i saw some pieces about it, but i think it's a longer video, so i i would have to watch the whole thing in its entirety to fairly like have an opinion on it.

Why can't we all constantly buy emcee eat pizza rules and sleep in our cars? Some of us has families to take care of. What's going on, rachel call jg wentworth. What's your best strategy for money and running into mr beast, i think he's in one of the carolinas right or maybe you just apply to work for him or something matt. Have you drank water today? No, i like to drink coffee bean water.

Instead straight up water. Not for me, you got ta watch riley's new video. She explains it all. Oh man, any gaps on tesla to the ups or the down uh.

It's been super frustrating breaking ones whoa. I blew my own ears out ding ding, ding, ding ding. The casino is open, any gaps on tesla to ups or down. It's been super frustrating breaking 1100 running, then breaking down repeat, not strong resistance either uh tesla does have a gap to the downside at whatever this high is 1021.80 uh.

Do don't think mr beast wants any part of the stock market? I 100 agree. I think he like he's in his own lane, he's one of the most successful, youtubers and entertainers of literally all time i think he's figured it out. I don't think he needs to like now take on the stock market. He basically explains how market makers are using options to move amc's price and how we notoriously play one side.

One side shares and calls. We are definitely playing one side shares and calls other people are hedging with puts, and i don't see an issue with it. My hesitation is just i want people to do it properly, because it's another thing that you could end up. It could end up even a worse situation if you don't execute it properly.

Now to the question of do market makers control the price of an equity through options, i think it can be influenced but to say to control the stock through options like to control it. I'm like this is where we're going by this date. To remember. Options are a derivative product options are based on what an equity does.

It's not like, equities are based on what an option does like the option is the derivative um? Is there influence there yeah because you can have um gammas in either direction to the upside or the downside? Is there influence 100? I like agree with that um and i i don't think you're using that word literally of like oh, like control it like every second we're doing this, we're doing that um, because at a certain point also remember this for a market maker to sell all that premium. Someone has to be willing to buy that premium. It's not like they're, going out in citadel in like the streets of chicago in new york and saying like going up to a random person and just like shaking a guy and they're like buy my puts buy my calls like they're offering the premium, and there has To be an appetite from the market to go, buy it off of them. They can write as much as they want, but it doesn't really matter it.

Doesn't it's not like officially written until someone actually buys that premium off of them, um, there's not like in infinite. I guess demand for options is the best way to think of it. So that's why i think canopy influence yeah. Does it completely control the price? No.

Do i think that there's some mathematical reasoning to max pain theory. I do. I don't think it's the end-all be-all that it's like really talked up to be, but i i think yeah like i think market makers want to burn as much premium as they can on both the call and the put side call trey get it from the horse's Mouth i mean i'd rather talk to someone who's like actually worked um as like a premium seller for a hedge fund. Maybe i could find a person like that um that, like has been in the industry and that's what their career is based on uh, just to get more confidently like talking from the horse's mouth like, i would love to speak with um.

I don't think market makers would be willing to speak with me at all, but i think we could probably get a hedge fund person who maybe has been in the world of like premium selling. I think that would be a cool piece of content. Uh didn't mean control meant influence, also how they use max payne to pin the price, i think, there's once again. I don't think it's the end-all be-all, but i do think there is some validity to this concept of max payne, because it just makes the most sense that they want to keep the most premium.

They can possibly keep uh because, when they're writing contracts, when you're writing calls when you're writing puts you want the most to be out of the money possible, because it's the most benefit to them. It's the most profitable scenario is if most options calls and puts get burned useless, but also - and like i mean i've, been discussing this for like a year now, i'm telling you if, if you're, having a tough time with options like if you're like, i want to Be an options trader. I like options, blah blah blah or even if you're, having a tough time in the market and like some of your market training, is options depending on the month, and this is all stuff that can be publicly found. If you guys want it.

I could do like a whole breakdown video and give you all the sources, but about 90 to 95 of all premium, all premium expires worthless, 90 to 95 of calls and puts put together. I'm talking all premium. All prop option premium expires worthless, which means that if you want to be the house you're not going to get these crazy gains of 10 000. 15 000.

That type of stuff, because the most you're gon na get, is the option going to zero. And then you collect all that money, but if you're looking for something that is like consistently profitable, you want to be a premium seller now the reason it doesn't get that much excitement from retail is because it's it's kind of boring, like you're just sitting there and You're, like okay, did it expire above this. Did it expire below that okay cool? I got my premium. It's like a very methodical, like wash rinse, repeat thing: there's not really much emotion to it.

There's not much excitement to it, but if you're looking to stack the odds like for you, you want to be a premium seller like if, if you break down any rudimentary to expert level data analysis of the options market will tell you that it's more beneficial to Be a premium seller than a premium buyer selling premium is sexy and all the cool kids do it. Maybe that's what we should do on this channel. Maybe we should change the rhetoric around premium selling and just be like the cool kids. Do it? It's like the kids who, like cut class smoke grass, they sell premium, that's what we need to do.

We need to change that rhetoric and it's slow and it's boring, but over enough trades and over enough time that's really one. It's like a very, very mathematically, solid way to engage in the market when a lower risk, with a reasonable war reward, submit scenario, we're cutting class, we're smoking grass and we're selling premium. I think, with this message: we need to start young we're going to target middle schoolers and we're going to work our way up, i'm to all the parents out there. This is a joke.

Well, it that the sentiment's - not a joke, but we're not going to tell your middle school kids to smoke grass that that part was a joke or was it uh chaos, panic fear your worst nightmare is here: oh boy, i'm here to get drunk, learn some stocks And disrupt the chat, i'm all out of beer and by the way i bet you don't even moisturize great hair, though oh hi mark robbie, robbie robbie, robbie chaos, panic inferior, worst nightmare is here: it's elba boy, i'm here to get drunk, learn about some socks and Disrupt the chat i'm all out of beer and by the way i bet you don't even moisturize watch the trade video. I did not watch it. I only saw some parts. I saw some clips as like people were blowing up my dms.

I thought i did something. I really did it was a weird morning i got up and i'm like, why do i have an inordinate amount of dms like usually my dms are from like a couple models and a couple like global leaders like president of various like medium-sized countries and a couple Fed members here and there, depending on what's going on um once in a while i'll, get some movie stars but yeah. It's usually movie stars, fed members, political leaders from medium-sized countries and a couple models like a couple hundred models that are always like jumping into my dms. So that's like my normal, that's my baseline and then all of a sudden.

I saw like double triple that and, like some people clipped certain parts here and there i was like dude, i don't i don't know what this video is. I don't know what's going on. I don't know it's one of those days get their attention. Let's ban.

Let's get hashtag bam, pfof going oh reddit haters! Well that sucks jj gorilla get him on the show matt. I don't know who that is well i'll, write it down and look into him. Jj gorilla, you guys. We already have two things on my to-do list today.

Jj gorilla gorilla in manila. I have lots of models, they are. Trains is kinky kong here, yet i don't know kinky kong are you here? Are you in chat you having a good time today? What up? What up everyone on rumble? Dallas jackman travis 404 where's craig, is craig here this morning, where's one leg craig just so you guys all know. I asked one leg craig if in fact he only has one leg and he did confirm that he only has one leg all right.

Well, here's a little bit of our support. 446.. Apparently i was off by 12 cents, but let's see if we're actually going to get a bounce and come back above this trend line um when we're only 10 minutes into the day. So i want to give it a bit more time then we'll see what's going on with the whales, and we can do some generic chart review.

We can see with the whatever the news is of the day, but we saw a pop in amc. It got smacked and now we're seeing come back up. We'd love to see 21 is a nice goal, but i really want it above 22. That's actually like a key level.

I care about gme. I i just need this higher uh 150 is kind of important and then it's somewhere in the 160s all right. What else do we have going on? Oh, what's the reddit drama? What's the reddit drama that somehow involves me. Oh, this is the same stuff from yesterday.

Coors is not an ape and does not believe in the moas. I heard the same thing you know to all the people who defend me on reddit you're, the real freaking heroes. I know it's easier to focus on the negative things because that's like the comedic thing, but um to all the people seriously you're like yeah. No, he didn't say that and you're just like straight up lying.

I appreciate that. I appreciate you and that's why this is why i love you guys. This is why i do this day in and day out, because of all the cool people i get to meet all the cool people. Do you know how they got so cool i'll? Give you guys one answer each of how these people got so cool like what did they do in their life to acquire this level of coolness? Stop eating cow chips, good for your digestive tract cow chips? What's a cow chip, a cow chip! Is that, like the most creative way to say hamburger ever frank, if you were trying to describe hamburger and use cow chip, i love you, diego.

Has it because they cut grass and smoked in class, they cut grass and they smoked in class. It means cow poop. Oh well, mine was more funny. Um everyone keep typing jj girl, i mean, i just don't know who it is jj i'll.

Look it up. Jj gorilla this. This jj, probably gon na get demonetized. Now is this the guy you want me to interview baby gorilla.

Jj is on the move. I mean i'll, try to get an interview, but i don't know if i'll be able to afford his appearance fees. Whoa very acrobatic, you can tell you, can tell jj parties just snacking snacking on some celery. He has a cool vibe.

Okay. I mean i'll, oh sleepy, jj passed out long day i'll do what i can. I will try to put that interview together. I'm just not sure just not sure if i could pull it off all right, the spy.

It is time that buyers step in where's all the buyers. Let's see what's going on with the flow. Oh, some tlt puts a spy put for one milli uh. That expires in 16 days.

Uh spy put for 1.6 milli, interesting cues, 3.55 8 days. Whoa. Someone is loading up against the market 20 mil holy uh folks. This is some of the biggest bets we've seen against the overall market like period ever since we've started using this options, flow uh spy, put spy put like right here.

We have 32 million uh and 12 million is expiring in two days. That's an insane bet. They said we're going down holy 12, mil 12 million dollars and then 20 million for 23 days out uh the options i mean, but they bet one mil on apple for 44 days, a mill against the small cap sector, it's safe to say that the flow this Morning is pretty bullish, i don't mean that i mean bearish, i shouldn't joke, but yeah. No, someone was hammering hammering the puts today, oh brother, oh brother, brother, brother or brother.

What are we doing? The market, the market, the market, the market? What are we doing today? At least till ray's, picking up a little bit of green there if you're in pill ray trying to look for some positivity well, if you want to see something green, you could probably just look at vol volatility. Just like look at uv explaining hey at least something's green. What website lets you see those? So that's the paid version on unusual whales, but if you want to get free options flow, you can just download attendees it's in the description. It's an app for your phone um, but if you just want it for free, i mean there's some services that sell options flow and that's part of their business model.

Then there's other ones who just give it out and attendees is one that i found that gives it out for free. It's always easier for me to pitch things to all you, folks that it's free, especially when it's free and you get money for signing up such as public. What website is that matt and did i miss an eggplant mat? You did miss an eggplant matt and right. There chaos threw it in the description on youtube if you guys are over there on rumble just like, or he put it in a chat but uh it is it's the second link.

It's the second link that you need to check out. The market needs a gofundme page. Can you set one up? That was hilarious. Sorry i just got in.

Have you given your opinion on train options? No theory - i i just i'm, put piecing it together from all of the chat and like the couple clips that i was sent uh, i haven't watched it in its entirety. I've just seen clips and some people are like hey that makes sense, and then other people were like. Oh yeah, you, like kind of like greta thunberg, like how dare you um, so lots of mixed reactions, which hey drama cells, taking a page out of the old kardashian playbook, i'm just gon na start drama with people who are way way, bigger than me way way. Bigger than me, i'm gon na, maybe mr beast is a good one.

I'm just gon na start making videos that, like hey, i heard mr beast: he he shorted amc and jimmy. That's that's the rumor that is the rumor or who's another one like i'm just gon na start calling out like big big, i heard all the kardashians. I heard they hate going to the movie theater. That's what i heard.

I don't know if it's true or not. It's on the rumor mill and, as you guys know, i get dm by a lot of important people, but i heard i straight up heard the kardashians hate movies and they hate video games. That's just what i heard just what i heard. Mr beast: punched.

A baby ape oh ain't, seeing jimmy coming back gon na jamie is green. On the day. Are we turning around? Are the meme stocks gon na lead the market recovery? Uh? Mr beast punch, jj! That's what i heard i. I heard that as well now can't confirm nor deny, but that's that's the rumor from some credible sources and my credible source is my youtube chat and my rumble chat.

Not my twitch chat. We all know over there on twitch there they even self-identify as not credible sources. Kodiak he's like no. I just wake things up unverified sources.

Yeah twit twitch is my unverified sources uh. What else do we have? Maybe i could explain this, though. What did trey mean in the vid when he said if coors was a chick, and i was straight ooh game over that's robbie's, asking the real questions. Robbie's gon na make us completely forget about rico like robbie's, creating his own brand right now robbie.

I don't know what you have or haven't been doing, but you need to make your twitter the real robbie and then just tweet out absurd things all day. I can guarantee you you're gon na get like i mean right here. How many people do we have watching? We have like six thousand on everything dude you're gon na convert like 50 they'd, be like. I just need to know what the real robbie's saying and then we're gon na all keep tweeting at elon and twitter until we get you verified.

So everyone knows you're the real robbie your watch list is messed up. Man shows wrong values. Um remember when you're streaming there's a little bit of a delay but stuff 24 7 5k cronies. I saw uh bee stuff.

I saw that you were fascinated with that comment. They're, like matt and his little 5k cronies folks, we have like 15 x than the 300 spartans in the battle of thermopylae. There is a good chance that if our viewership right now fought the spartans, i'm not saying we're gon na win but we'd put up a good fight. We'd have a shot.

It would be an interesting bet. That's my question to chat today. If everyone who is a member of the moon gang watching right now, if we all fought the spartans in the battle of thermopylae, who do you think, would win us or the spartans? And i need reasoning, you can't just be like. Well, we have more or like we don't know how to fight.

I don't know there might be good fighters in this group. We just throw money at them. I know you know preston and steve. You need to bring on robbie and complete the morning.

Show key keyword. Minigun we would get destroyed. You guys do not have much faith in your own fighting abilities right now. Uh we sit on computers, they fight spartans, but they also like me, i'm 66 225 solid.

That's funny i'm 5'6 and 225 soft, so i feel like we're. The same guy puts on spartans all right. I feel like the chat, you're you're switching a little bit, you're like we might have a shot. I, like that, all right back to the market, the spy right now trying to find support at 445.50 amc.

Looking green and went green right here, a little green green uso is green. Amc is green. Gme is green, till ray's green. The only one who's late to the party is the overall market and like.

Why should we even care about the overall market? That would be crazy. Real warriors versus keyboard warriors it's a no-brainer yeah, but they also have like if they caught like the common cold. They would just be done they. They have no understanding of what it's like to deal with like internet hate, so we would just introduce them to reddit or twitter and we would just post them the entire time uh.

So as long as we survive like day one of battle, we could psychologically destroy them in the overnight session. They probably don't know about memes. Has anyone ever thought about that, but there's a very good statistical chance that the spartans don't even know what a meme is. So i think our way of winning not necessarily through physical, combat but psychological, combat in the overnight session, like we just give them a bunch of iphones.

We're like hey like check out what you want to check out and, of course, it's only going to have twitter and reddit they'll, open, twitter and reddit, and then just all night we're just posting them posting, like i heard they have spray on abs like we'll just Come up with the craziest, i think it's gon na. I think it's a good idea. Mental wounds never heal. We fight them with memes, no way that ends this ends poorly dakota.

I need a little bit more optimism, a little bit more optimism out of you this morning. They'll discover riley, forget the fight uh. This is all gon na be funny games until i get a cease and desist from riley uh. What else do we have hey? I'm showing up i'm just not happy about it.

I like it uh. What do we have here interesting interest? Are they still hammering the options market? A shop put well where's the big money we've seen so much money coming in today. I want the big bets, a tlt put an iwm put coming in at 2.3 mil, so they are hammering bonds and market indices. That's where i'm seeing the big money and it's almost all exclusively on the bearish side, bonds and market spy, cues iwm, especially the spy and especially the qs, and then also tlt and hyg, which are bonds.

So i'm seeing bearish bets against the two. We have stair steppers uh; they don't want to want that bullish reversal, i mean if it starts to go. Like i mean i just showed you all the numbers. There could be a lot of people who get completely burned kryptos getting hit most, certainly absolutely we're.

Seeing a little bit i mean doge got hit by 15. sam got hit by like we're still seeing a bloodbath team. This is still uh a bloodbath scenario. Amc was green for a minute there, uh down by 20 cents now but jimmy's in the green one of our few green plays oil is chilling at 101 um.

Is there bearish flow on twitter? I mean there's options flow and then you can just see if it's bullish or bearish uh iwm is struggling to stay above 200. Oh, it definitely is that looks heavy. That looks heavy. I just um.

I don't know. I feel like the theme of the year is, is when everyone is panicking, they rip the market and then, when everyone's stoked, that it's ripping they pull. The rug like i i just feel like the name of the game over the first fiscal quarter of 2022, has been really just rug. Whoever the biggest group is, if everyone's bullish, let's rug, the bulls, if everyone's bearish, let's rug the bears.

I just feel like the market's been rug, rug, rug, rug, rug and they just keep doing basically the opposite uh. What's your sst opinion it, i think it's kind of over yesterday. Isn't it is it picking back up? I mean if it pushes 22.50, it might have another crazy move. So i'd watch that 22.50 um, but ever since this like it was kind of done at 10, 30, at least for yesterday, so maybe it'll restart.

But i would watch obviously 21.50 and i think things get exciting over 22.50, but let's put up our wacky tobaccy play tilray having a good day up 15, so financially, and also from like a dopamine perspective. It looks like devil's lettuce is a play of the day. Why is the market red great question and the answer is the fed, the fed, the fed, the fed and monetary policy and the fact that they need to do something to battle inflation and the tools that they have available to them to battle?.