All right listen up moon gang. Like i said, if you woke up this morning, you saw the market rip. Maybe you took a nap, maybe you hit your head and if you're tuning back in for this, you might be asking yourself what in the world is possibly going on. This doesn't make sense.

Everything was ripping for the first hour, maybe all the way up till noon. Why am i seeing so much red? Why was it red, then? Why did it go greed? Why is it red again, you might have got caught up trying to like fomo in maybe you saw it ripping and you were chasing, and this is exactly why we say not to do that. That's why you have a training plan. You don't want to be the person chasing, so here's what happened today february, the 10th - it's a beautiful thursday, at least where i am this morning.

At 8 30 we got the consumer price index, basically a gauge of how much how costly it is. How, like the devaluation, basically of your dollar as a consumer, we also have this thing: a producer price index we'll be also getting that pretty soon anyway. This gauge is a very common gauge used by the federal reserve to make their monetary policy decisions. Well, it came out this morning.

Let me go back at 8, 30 and boom we got hit and we got hit really really hard because inflation came in hot and then when the market opened, we popped. We came back up to that level and ever since then, we've been selling off well, let's dive a little bit into even with all this. Why didn't i buy? Why did i hold my credit spread on the spy? Why did i feel comfortable in the fact that this seemed a little sus? Why did i warn all of you about of hey? Keep your wrist tight, maybe a good idea. If you foam owed into some calls just to lock in those tendes.

Why did we know about that? Why, before the market opened, did we even put this on the locals page? The cpi, as discussed inflation, came in hot fed, needs to be more hawkish to battle. This is less accommodative for the overall market. Stonks down this, as you can see seven hours ago, i posted this before the market was open. Why did i feel that way? What was going on? Why did i not get - i guess kind of tricked by it seemingly this overall market rug, pull that we currently have going on in front of us? Well, let's dive into some of these specifics: inflation surges 7.5 on an annual basis, even more than expected in the high since 1982..

Basically, over the past month, the expectation was for an increase month over month of 0.4 percent, but it came in at 0.6 so month over month it was hot and year over year is 7.5 and the expectation was closer to 7.27.3 so year, over year and month Above a month, the inflation was high, okay. Well, it is the fed's job to battle inflation, and the question is to battle it. You can be hawkish, which is less accommodative to the overall market or you could be dovish which can prompt inflation, but it's more accommodative to the unemployment situation. Well, when people saw this number when it came in hot when it came in super hot people, panicked and that's right at 8, 30 an hour before the market opened and don't forget it's because of this right here, payrolls show surprisingly powerful gain of 467 000.

In january, despite unicorn surge the estimation this came out on february 4th the estimation was 150, it came in at 467., they were off by over 200, so we're in this scenario, where the economy is actually stronger than expectations and we have higher inflation than expectations. This is literally the perfect recipe for the fed becoming way more hawkish. There were some concerns of like okay. Maybe inflation truly is transitory, which is that thing they've been trying to feed all of us, but we all know deep down in our hearts that it's complete bs.

They were trying to tell us it's transitory, let's retire, the word transitory. Maybe we just don't know what we're doing, but overall, it's just not a good scenario: inflation's going higher and higher and higher things are being absurdly devalued. That's what happens when you have inflation from the 1950s. Until now, the usd has gone down by over 93 and it's honestly speeding up over the past year and a half because powell and his buddies at the fed reserve are just printing, they're, printing, they're, printing they're printing.

Well, now we're in that situation, where inflation's coming in way too hot. There is clear signs that the economy is actually stronger than expectations. So that's the final solution. That's why i was able to come up with that reasoning of no.

This is going to prompt them. If inflation comes in hot to be hawkish, so when we saw this morning move across the entire market, to me i mean this is just i guess, conjecture to me, this is whales, pumping everything up for them to get out before we actually go down. They did it a little bit. They were either able to lock in some games.

They were able to get out with less of a loss, and then the party was over. This move made absolutely no sense and that's why exactly i posted in locals. That's why i said it on the stream be careful. None of this seemed to make sense.

The only bullish thing going on right now is what we're seeing seasonally roughly in mid-february. There is a bullish push, but it doesn't matter because the macroeconomic developments are so much more impactful to the equities market and the crypto market, as you are clearly seeing. You know with this. It's important to understand and i like i've, been trying to prep everyone for like what all this means.

Two days ago yesterday, i was saying you guys got to pay attention to the overall markets, because it's going to be these major indices that are going to lead all the equities. Yes, of course, there's some earnings and those individual catalysts could like outweigh what happens in the overall market, i'm not saying for every individual equity, but barring any, like large update for a particular company. The macroeconomic situation is clearly going to lead the day and right now i just don't see it. I don't see in the short term, what's going on, that's really that bullish.

In fact, what i see what's going on in the short term is bearish, because the fed has an untenable situation that they're going to do their best to adhere to to pay attention to to try to fix and all those potential solutions. This side effect of that is not an accommodative nature: it's not an accommodative environment for the overall equities market. Obviously, this stuff does change day in and day out, but to give you a better idea of what's going on in march, we know, there's a rate hike at first, the s expectation was 0.25 and then they started pricing and okay. There might be like a 30-ish percent chance of a 0.5 increase well this morning, even before the market opened that got jacked up to a 50 chance and now a lot of people are saying by july.

We're actually going to be up to one percent and then other bets in the futures market are saying that we might have six individual rate hikes this calendar year. The fed only meets eight times, and we already had one of those meetings in january. So there's only seven left and now they're saying six rate hikes folks, you got ta pay attention to the overall situation of what's going on, because this is so incredibly important not only for your individual holdings, your individual life, but if you're really paying attention, it's massive Money making opportunities, so people were asking me - am i still holding my spy bear call spread 100 because i i just didn't see it going up and i'm just gon na keep all of that money. There's other ways you can play it.

That's a conservative way. You could look at uv xy calls. You can look at cover, calls there's various things you could do and do whatever you feel is appropriate. But overall you got to pay attention to what's going on and i just want to leave you with some of these metrics right here.

So uh, the st louis fed bullard he's saying he's favoring a one percent rate hike by july. He's saying that he's favoring a 0.5 rate hike uh by march, so these are some of the like local updates overall 60 chance. Oh the last time i checked it. It was a 50 chance of the 50 basis points in march.

Now it's up to 60 uh. This one says 50., so, as you can see, everything is pointing in the direction of jerome powell and his federal reserve buddies being more hawkish. They are being more hawkish and in that environment, less accommodative for the market, and when you have a less accommodative environment for the market, that means you go from risk on to risk off what that means is people are switching their money up from higher growth, higher Risk such as crypto such as high growth, high tech, like nasdaq, 100 type, plays, and also that includes what mainstream media would refer to as meme socks. There's a pivot of money from these large institutional buyers - yes, retail is most likely.

We can actually see that in some of the stats kind of doing some opposite stuff, but i'm saying these big guys: the big whales, the institutions, the banks, the hedge funds, what they're seeing from the fed it's prompting them go into more of, like quote unquote. Fundamentally, sound plays and right now, you're, actually seeing an inflow into some of these financial places. Think of the big bangs goldman sachs, jp, uh wells fargo, citibank because of the amount of rate hikes that we're expecting to see. That's obviously going to be a net benefit to those types of businesses.

You.