So, on thursday we got the consumer price index report also known as cpi, and this is basically just as a consumer. How much has the cost is your typical goods gone up? So previously we were expecting an increase of by 0.4, but it came in hot. The inflation was higher than expected. It came in at 0.6 and now year over year, as you can see, we are up 7.5.

This is a four decade. High level of inflation, cpi uh is one very important inflationary gauge that the fed uses to decide its monetary policies, and we have another upcoming one and i'll touch on this in just a bit. But tomorrow, tuesday, the day after valentine's day, we get the producer price index, so basically the inflation of materials. So these are both very, very important gauges and reports that the fed does use to decide what its policy should be.

Basically, in this scenario, because we are at a four decade - high level of inflation and the uk is at a three decade, high level of inflation and many other global powers are seeing an absurd level of inflation. Well, you got to pay attention to it. It's obviously incredibly important because if it keeps going that way, that's leading to all these central banks being more hawkish, the more hawkish you are. You fight inflation, but it's less accommodative for the overall stock market.

It's like kind of a side effect. Their goal is to fight inflation and a side effect of that is basically stonks going down. So anyway, this report, the cpi report, came out on thursday and pretty much right after that, it was announced that the fed will be having an emergency meeting. So today, at 11 30 it starts.

This is a closed board meeting where basically, the topic will be interest rates. Now this is kind of one of these emergencies. That's not really an emergency. It's like a non-emergency emergency, that's also an emergency, but if you consider it an emergency you're fear-mongering, so it's not exactly a non-emergency, but it's an emergency non-emergency, that's a non-emergency emergency! Yes, that is actually all accurate and the convoluted nature of it is exactly what they want.

Do emergency meetings happen yeah, do they happen every single month? Well, no, but it's not one of these things. It's like we've never heard of it before it's not like the word voldemort. Yes, they do occur and in this particular scenario, could they come out with a surprise interest rate that is theoretically possible? Do i think it's at all likely? No because we do have previous statements from jerome powell, the chairman of the fed, that said, we will not do interest rates until tapering has concluded and we actually have an update from friday that the tapering's not done yet. I know this sounds absurd, but yes, even with a four decade high level of inflation, they are still injecting more money into the overall system, the federal reserve's rate debate and ukraine.

Tensions could jolt markets the week ahead and that's exactly what we're doing there's so many things in this particular boiling over pot between the federal reserve. What's going on with stock markets, what is going on with ukraine and russia, or yeah, uk and russia, and we actually have an update on all that? We have breaking news as of this morning, but before we get to the stuff that's coming out today, you have to know on friday. This is what i'm talking about right here. Look at this between february 14th and march 11th, the desk plans to purchase approximately 20 billion more more, they are still buying.

This is so insane. That's what i'm saying of the title of this video neither are as crazy as the fed folks. They are still putting money into the system and, what's crazy is like a couple minutes ago, we're actually getting breaking news from bullard, a member of the fed from st louis who's, like he's almost dissenting with this it, this is so so wild they're still putting money Into the system, even though our inflation is high - and i just this is beyond me - this is so so crazy and then um, okay, so consumer price index we're gon na. Hopefully this situation that was announced on friday, the fed's meeting today tomorrow right here, you have um from feb10 all right, so you can see right here, they're ending this purchasing on march 11th right here, we'll check this out the day before march 10th.

That's actually the next cpi report. So on thursday we got a cpi report. Tomorrow we get a ppi report and then on friday it was announced that they're still purchasing 20 billion. So if you fast forward, that's ending right around the next cpi report, which is right before the next official fed meeting, where we are expecting a rate hike um.

Just so, you know the based on the futures market, the odds of basically seeing a higher and higher interest rate hike. They continue to increase and a lot of people are looking at the point now, probably by june or july, we'll be at one percent and right now we're at zero right. Nada, we're at zilch we're at nothing um, so most likely they're gon na give us a rate hike like the odds of a march rate hike just assume it's gon na happen happen, but the speed that we're going to see at after that is they're going to Try to end tapering most likely this 20 bill purchase that we're seeing right here. Uh will be the last one if they go beyond that like this is already insane if they continue past that, like we're seeing the craziest inflation, if they choose to inflate it more, that's just asking for so much trouble, but anyway, like it, looks like that around March 10th march 11th: we're going to be getting some interesting information because ideally they should stop the purchasing we're going to get the next cpi report and then right after that, we have the next official fed meeting where we're going to get a rate hike announcement and The question is just how severe is it going to be and then to make it all much more complicated, don't forget about russia and ukraine.

So last week on friday, i believe it was initially reported by pbs that tensions were boiling over and it looked like something was going to happen and then pot, biden and putin spoke on saturday and the rumor mill is saying it didn't go that well, so we Got reports like this sullivan says russia could launch ukraine invasion essentially at any time. Basically, russia has 130 000 soldiers on the border, and things are looking crazy, but as of this morning, it got really interesting, and this is actually why we saw a little bit of bullishness a little bit of a pop in pre-market. Russia's lawmakers agreed to seek putin's opinion on proposed resolution calling for recognition of two breakaway regions in eastern ukraine as independent states. You might be like okay.

What does that mean? Well, this is where it actually starts to get interesting right here. Russia's foreign minister lavrov tells putin responses from eu and nato to russian security proposals have not been satisfactory. Uh, russia's lavrov says we can see a way to move forward with talks, so this one was actually pretty bullish, as in hang on we're still open to a discussion. We might not lead to like an actual conflict right here.

Russia's lavrov says indefinite talks are not possible, but there's always a chance for an agreement. Putin said all right in response to lavrov's proposal. So right there it sounds like hang on. There might be more of like a diplomatic way to take care of it, and this stuff all came out about an hour ago and, as you can see in the market, if i pull up the 15 minute, this is exactly when we started to get a little Bit of a pop, and on top of it that's actually when you started to see oil come down in price because, like the tensions were not as high so people like that and then, as you can see in this chart, not only did we get a pop.

Well then, all of a sudden we started to see some red and you might be like well hang on wait, that's good news. It sounds like we're not going to have conflict. Well, i guess people are looking for a very red valentine's day, because bullard a fed member, the one from st louis, was on tv this morning and he started saying some comments that were pretty crazy. Big picture is inflation is much higher than expected.

Inflation higher is going to produce like prompt the fed to be more hawkish, so that's going to produce a sell-off in the stonk market, so a little bit crazy there and i was like okay. He just said that one statement just to get it out there, but it it didn't, stop bullard feedback is supply chain issues may last into 2023, and then he started going on about this other stuff he's like we should have been more hawkish from the start. In retrospect, we bought too many assets. It was absurdly absurdly hawkish bullard says the fed needs to front low tightening, because inflation is accelerating, and then he went on to say the first phase of quantitative tightening won't be that painful, and i just like had to tweet out liar liar pants on fire, because, As soon as we get into this hawkish decision of going from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening, it's gon na be painful when they go this hawkish there's not gon na be, in my opinion, in my non-financial advice, non-legal opinion how in the world could this be good For the market, because recently, we've only been going sky high, because the federal reserve was backing everything, and this still comes down to like my main issue with how this has been, i guess relayed to the entire retail public sector.

They're, like it's transitory, don't worry about it. What at first, we're told not to worry about inflation, then we're told that it's transitory then we're saying i think you guys are overreacting to this word and they're like gaslighting us and changing the definition of transitory in real time and then they're just saying uh. Maybe we shouldn't use that word: let's retire it and now they're, just apparently saying whatever they want on tv. It is crazy.

So that's the situation from the federal reserve also a quick update of what's going on in geopolitical land, and i just want to give you more of, like the mathematical update of we actually from a seasonal perspective over the past. What two three decades of information on the s? P 500 - we're kind of in this mid-feb push, so i just want to like the seasonality, have to play out. Absolutely not i'm just doing my best to convey everything from the fed to geopolitical stuff to the statistics of seasonality, but we're kind of right here in a nice mid-feb push, that is the seasonality. So definitely something worthwhile to consider now more specific.

For this particular week, we're getting to the end of earnings season, but there's still some important ones. Um. For example, we do have a whole host of hotels, including marriott, i believe, hilton's on the list. Uh, we also have some tech plays.

We have shopify, we have nvidia palantir, roku, walmart's gon na be important one draftkings, i'm sure they're gon na have some impressive numbers from the super bowl of the amount of people that did officially place a bet. So overall uh there are some important ones. I just wanted to call out like specifics. I know we're talking about macroeconomics and obviously they will have an influence on individual companies uh.

It's never a bad idea to pay attention to crocs some of the comfy issues that we possibly have out there airbnb. So if you want to take a quick screenshot of this, they are obviously things that can influence these individual stocks beyond the prevailing, headwinds and tailwinds of the overall market. So just wanted to quickly share that, but to really sum all this up this upcoming week because of the things going on from a macroeconomic perspective, expect extreme volatility. Please protect your downside.

This is a phase of capital preservation, like any of these things, depending on how they break could prompt like huge jolts. You got to pay attention to the bigger picture this particular week because man, oh man, are there a lot of things going on and obviously stick to your training plan protect your downside, but if you're on the right side with high volatility, does potentially come some very Nice money making opportunities. So with that, i hope that you absolutely crush it. You.