Foreign, foreign foreign foreign I hope you had an absolutely fantastic Monday This is Monday December 5th Welcome back to the Matt core show. A little bit of a different show, but I think you're gonna enjoy it I think we're gonna test a little a new thing out that I think you're gonna enjoy. So kind of a quiet day in terms of medium, just relative to all the insanity that's played over over the past couple weeks. past couple months like it, things have been ridiculous and I'm not saying there was no news today, but just relative to what we've been I don't know I guess psychologically like tricked into expecting by mainstream media.

kind of a slow news day. so I want to take advantage of that of going over what I think is the important news of course I want to share that with all of you but then I want to get into the meat of this video of why I personally believe especially for all my degenerate Traders out there that it will pay to be bullish over the next two days and I have the stats I have the facts I have the numbers to back up my thesis. Obviously time will tell if I'm right or wrong, but if you're watching in this in real time Monday evening September 5th I believe we are looking at a solid two-day Opportunity by making some Buco bucks betting to the upside, so that's going to be the meat of the video. That's really what I want to focus on And like I said, I have the facts I have the figures I have the numbers to back up my entire thesis of the situation if you agree.

Awesome if you disagree. Also awesome I would love to hear your thoughts on the whole thing, so that's pretty much the plan for today. It's going to be a little bit shorter and the reasoning for that is because we might have to do an impromptu special stream in about 90 minutes around 6 30. PM ET As of now, obviously, check on this whenever you're watching me say these exact words.

But at 6 30 PM ET East Coast time in the U.S that's when there's allegedly I I say that like quoting my fingers of a new like Twitter space call round two Twitter File drop So if that actually happens, it was supposed to be 2 30 yesterday, then it got moved to 3 15. then it got moved to 3 15 today, then it got moved to five, then it got moved to six, and now it's officially at 6 30. So if it holds, we're definitely going to be streaming it because it's gonna get it's spicy. It's a spicy old meatball, but it also might end up getting pushed again because it seems like that's the way we are currently trending.

So I have no clue. So we're definitely doing this stream obviously while we're talking right now, but in terms of the next one, it's kind of up to I guess Elon The reporters, the people at the Twitter space call it seems like it's a complete mess so uh, that's gonna be like kind of an audible that we can pull in potentially an hour and a half. But for now I want to talk about the major news of the day, but really be getting into why I Personally believe you should be bullish in the market over the next two days I think we are being um I don't know given a pretty interesting money making opportunity. But before we get into all of that, a quick shout out to today's stream sponsor: I'm talking about Enviro Cleanse.

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Holiday sale is fast free shipping. You can give the gift of healthy holiday to your entire family. Visit Ekpure.com and use the code Rumble R-u-m-b-l-e that is Ekpure.com Use the code Rumble R-u-m-b-ld All the information pinned to the top chat in the description of the video and obviously if you have any questions, you can also directly ask me if you're curious at all. Now with all that out of the way, let's talk a little bit about the market.

The Dow sheds nearly 50 points. Stocks finish lower on worries of further Fed rate hikes. so we're gonna find this all out in a little over a week. So mark your calendars for December 14th, 2 P.m ET Stock Market time.

That's when we get the results of the next Fomc meeting. the Federal Open Market Committee meeting where they tell us what they're going to do with the next rate hike. It comes out at 2 p.m and then Jerome Powell the chairman of the FED will be speaking at 2 30 and of course that's next Wednesday December 14th which is two days before quadruple witching day. so there's going to be a lot of volatility there.

Basically the way I see things is this is a little bit more of the quiet week with a big emphasis on kind of quiet and what the new definition of quiet even means in our current world. But anyway, this week relative to next week, if I really had to guess I think next week's going to be quite a bit more volatile. But anyway, right now Market not so good. They're talking about the Fed and what they're What is the aggression going to be in the rate hike? And this is some of the recent commentary following the speech last week by Fed Chairman: Jerome Powell Markets largely expect the Central Bank will approve a 0.5 percentage Point increase rate Uh, rate increase? excuse me.

So also known as 50 Bips a point Five percent increase 50 bips? Um, uh, this would Mark a step down from a series of four straight 75 percentage Point rate hike so 0.75 75 Pips At the same time, Powell Also said that the terminal rate or the point where the FED stops raising likely will need to be somewhat higher than indicated after. September Meaning this could mean Fed funds rate ends up in excess of five percent from its current target range of 3.7524 So basically a lot of people were looking at the 2023 number and they're like, all right, what's the term, one rake and a B and it was like at first it was five and now it looks like it might be a little bit higher. All the voting fed members they kind of give their own projections and we get the average, the median of it and right now it seems like things are calming down. Of course, it's the golden question of how long will it last? Is what they're doing actually optimal? Will they be able to pull off the soft Landing But with all this last week, there was quite a bit of optimism, especially on Wednesday the 30th.

This is when Jerome Powell was speaking at the Brooking Institute and he basically said, yeah, no, there's no need to be as absurdly hawkish as we've been lately. Now he didn't say we're gonna do rate Cuts He didn't say anything like that. He's like maybe we're just gonna slow down our aggression in hawkishness and that's exactly why we exploded. The upside: we hit a key level of 410 and since then we're taking a little bit of a breather.

As you can tell, we've just been trending up and up and up. I Don't think a breather of a day is like the end of the world, especially when you see what's been going on from more of a technical perspective. Obviously, you have this bottom trend line that we bounce off of today. But more important is the trend line that we bounce off of on Thursday of last week to kick off.

December This is the major trend line. the top trend line that we've seen all year. This is from the all-time high on I Guess whatever. this was the fourth or the fifth connected to the next eye connected to the next eye and that's exactly where we just touched it again.

But now we have this wedge formation and it's a question of well, the Bulls and the bears in the market. What are they going to respect more? Are they going to respect this bottom line and push it up through the top? Or are we going to bounce and get rejected here again? I Don't know. Obviously if the market so chooses, there's a theoretical scenario where it could just build out in this basically all the way up until the FED meeting right here on Wednesday the 14th. There's a good chance that the market just does that.

It's all a possibility. But right here. what I'm really trying to say is that this absurd looking bearishness I mean this is the heat map of the S P 500 I Think it's kind of overstating and it's a little bit more of like that looks intense but in reality if you look at the rip we've been on this one little red day, if you just kind of take a breather and zoom out I think in reality we are A-Okay I Really, really do and that's in fact why I Personally went long in the S P 500 futures market today and I fully plan on riding this active trade for about two more days and once again, I'll be getting in all that in a second. But first: I want to talk about crypto? So just for a little bit more framework around this conversation to talk about crypto, it's been doing well I mean today, it sold off.

but overall solid bounce in Bitcoin 16 000 up to 17 trading just below 17. now Ethereum ripped from 1150 all the way up to 1300. taking a breather to 11 1260 right now. So that's what I'm seeing today is recently last week, especially.

There was quite a bit of optimism and bullishness in the market. This pullback is in my mind, exactly that. A little bit of a pullback, if anything for the next. For the middle part of the week, I'm favoring the Bulls this end of this week, the start of next week.

Little bit of a different story, but let's take this all one step at a time and kind of get our heads around of wait, what's going on in the short term? Basically, I'm focusing on like today to Wednesday where might it pay to position yourself in the market before we get into all that I Want to calm things down and we're just gonna maybe three things you missed on the internet today. Uh, before we get into the heavy duty math and stories and all that in 1919 Walt Disney Was fired by a local newspaper in Kansas for not being creative enough according to his editor. Walt lacked imagination and had no good ideas. Now this just kind of shows that people in media are commonly wrong.

So I think maybe someone out there could take this to be a little bit of a sign of enthusiasm and follow what your passion is because I mean you hear things like this about Walt Disney You hear it about? um uh I Well you hear about Oprah You hear about so many I think even Morgan Freeman started acting when he was like 35 and everyone told him he would be bad at it. like there's so many stories of time and time again where people are telling you that exact person that they're trash and then they end up being amazing like I'm pretty sure there's some story of like Michael Jordan not even making his High School varsity team and now we all think of him as like one of the goats. So hey, a little bit of optimism out there for all of you new. Liz Cheney Ron DeSantis and Elon Musk are among the finalists for Time Person of the year um I Understand why Elon Musk is in the running I even understand why Ron DeSantis is in the running I mean that's pretty impactful to kind of cause a giant fracture in the GOP but Liz Cheney lives like I don't think I've heard her name in months, maybe even years Like what is Liz Cheney been doing that? She's in the running for the finalists and Time person of the year.

How is he the person of the year when? I don't think any of us have heard from her about her or anything hyper confused about Liz Cheney I understand that DeSantis and musk are making like big ripples in the world. but Cheney Cheney I I don't get it I don't get it. But anyway, speaking about musk, uh, obviously he's ruffling quite a few feathers with not only his Twitter Antics in general, but specifically him giving out some of the internal information of the company that he now owns Which All the politicians are upset about it and Elizabeth Warren Uh, in a very flabbergasted State needed to share her thoughts on the whole situation. Give it a quick listen Republicans Say that Democrats are picking on Elon Musk Elon Musk is doing just fine.

Do you think that users have a right to freedom of speech? even if what they're saying is wrong or offensive I Think that one human being should not decide how millions of people communicate with each other. One human being should not be able to go into a dark room by himself and decide, oh, that person gets hurt from that person doesn't That's not how it should work Republicans I Don't think she as in she I mean Elizabeth Warren appreciates like the hypocrisy in her own statements here, because that's how it was done before. That's how it was literally done on Twitter That's how it's done on YouTube of people in a room deciding who performs well and who doesn't, who gets exposure and who doesn't and now she. well, oh, that's like part of her brand.

like obviously she has to be against every billionaire so she's never going to say anything positive about him. But in reality the question was pretty simple: don't you think people deserve freedom of speech Like that's a constitutional right that we have here in America And then all of a sudden she can't say yes. There's no way that she could be like oh yeah, no, everyone deserves freedom of speech. She's like I don't think some person should be in a room by themselves deciding if anything more voices are now being heard on Twitter than previously before I Don't know I Just thought that the hypocrisy of it was definitely jaw dropping.

Uh, to say the least. Would love to know your thoughts now just keeping it with the tone of government and some of the big stories of the day obviously. FTX and all of that, um, a little thing I Want to add on here though for everyone is in the world of AMC You might have been hearing some of this recent stuff about like the tokenized Securities and we're AMC tokenized Securities Being used to like somehow hurt the stock I did more of a like an in-depth breakdown of that article and my reasoning for it on the morning stream. so feel free to check that out or I kind of covered more of the details on my Twitter if you don't want to watch the video of the stream this morning, uh, feel free just to check out my Twitter I want to put that out there and I want to act like I'm avoiding that.

We just already covered it in detail So recently Maxine Waters who happens to be the committee chair for the U.S Committee on Financial Services Uh tweeted out Maxine Waters did this um FTX Sam Bakeman free. We appreciate that you've been candid in your discussions about what happened at FDX Your willingness to talk to the public will help the company's customers, investors, and others. To that end, we would welcome your participation in our hearing on December 13th and then Sam Bakeman freed respond to that uh representative Waters and the House Committee on Financial Services Once I have finished learning and reviewing what happened I would feel like it was my duty to be appear before the committee and explain I'm not sure that will happen by the 13th, but when it does, I will testify. So a little awkward like right away be like hey, um I'm in no rush I'm gonna figure it out when I figure it out and I'll let you know when I do and then right away experts say Sam Bakemanfried May falsely be claiming ignorance to avoid criminal charges.

so a little bit of a community note there. but hey, publicly in the past I have spoken my opinion about Maxine Waters and it was not a positive one I will own that and I still honestly don't like her overall. but in this particular case I really do like what she's doing. It seems like she's attempting to bring it down hard on Sam Bakeman freed so I think that's how things should go I don't think we should all like in all dis like one person for like in a general blanket cause like you should be like I like this I like this I don't like that I don't like that.

it's just one of those things. So there's things she's done in the past that I don't agree with. But then there's things such as this: I'm like oh no cool and I I honestly think that's a little bit better for civil discourse to fully agree or fully disagree with someone. I I Just don't really buy that based on your role as CEO in your media interviews over the past few weeks, it's clear to us that the information you have thus far is sufficient for Testimony as in don't play this game of like oh, we'll push it off As you know, the collapse of FTX has harmed over 1 million people.

your testimony would not only be meaningful to members of Congress but is also critical to the American people. It is imperative that you intend your hearing on the 13th and we are willing to schedule continued hearings if there is more information to be shared later. like I said I'd Like how she's coming down on I Really, really do. So we'll see how it goes.

I See someone asking about inviting I Mean you think that there could just be some sort of extradition made or something like that? I Have no idea. There's a lot of murmurs going on right now recently Caroline Ellison who was like I believe Sam Bakeman Freed's ex-lover and also was running Alameda even though he owned Alameda Um, a lot of people are saying that what he's doing is gearing up to throw her under the bus and then other people are saying she was just bonding to Manhattan and also she hired the services of an old Clinton lawyer and people are like no, she's gonna throw him under the bus and then other people are saying that Dan Friedberg the another guy the legal counsel at FTX they say he's gonna throw those two under the bus. So basically everyone's getting thrown under the bus. Those are the rumors and I don't want to dive too too much into it just because none of it is solidified.

But right now it seems like the rats are running as quickly for the exits as they possibly can because some of them are going to get trapped. And if I just had to throw out a guess here, it seems like it's going to be a very, very serious trap and we're gonna see how the dust settles. We're gonna see who kind of calls out who and who makes the other person look worse. but I would wholeheartedly argue with all of you that none of us should accept the current I guess like almost a media portrayal or personal portrayal of Sam Bakeman Freed and Carolina just like oh, like nerdy people who didn't know what was going on and we should feel bad for them.

If anything, the people in the company that work with them prior to November of this year said it's it's the exact opposite. In many internal people's opinion, this is all a calculated act and it is complete. BS and all these times of the Ohms and the US and I don't remember I'm not quite sure I wasn't really connected with it. Everyone who had some insight beforehand were like this is a completely different person because all of these people are are truly extremely intelligent and damn for like without a doubt they knew what was going on.

that is I mean obviously I never worked internal to the company I never spoke to any of these people um, myself especially like Sam or Caroline like I never had any dealings with them but I'm just like over the weekend I was reading so many things of like ex-employees either to Alameda or FTX and um, granted, a lot of it is anonymous so you're gonna have to take it all with a grain of salt. but just even other companies that did like some sort of freelance work they would all argue like this guy was on top of the ball. He knew everything that was going on and now everything we hear in Twitter space, calls and interviews is like I just don't know I I Kind of forget the details are a little fuzzy. it's just wildly wildly different.

Um, so I Just want to make sure we were all kind of on the same page of that one. Sam Bakeman Freed could face years in prison over Ftx's 32 billion meltdown. If the US ever gets around to arresting him, well, you can't really arrest him when he's in another country. So that's the whole thing of: will he be there in person on December 13th.

Will he be there virtually on December 13th? Will he be there at all on December 13th Are we going to talk with the Bohemian government and be like hey, you got to play ball with us and kick this person back. Is he just gonna run away? It's I Don't think we're really that close to the conclusion of this story, but overall, remember, it's serious series money. we're talking about 32 Billy Exclusive Sam Bakeman Free knew plenty about his Alameda research hedge fund and sent details to Forbes just months ago. so this came out on December 2nd shout out to Chase Peterson Withhorn Whitorn whatever your name happens to be a very interesting read: I Highly recommend anyone on Forbes check this out but it goes back to kind of backing up of like well we have this 32 billion dollar problem and now the guy who seems to be at the root of this problem is playing dumb and it's exactly that.

It seems to be a farce. it seems to be an act. I Think as the general populace that is interested in markets, stocks, cryptos Futures options. what's going on? What's not going on? Who's corrupt? Who's not corrupt I Think this is one of those things that as a public we just shouldn't let him like score him away because right now it all seems to be a pretty insane act and some people who are in The Gnome and have solid solid interviewing abilities are putting that to the test.

and a lot of people are like kind of bringing the Flames to Sam Bateman Free. So this was a recent one. This was a like a two-hour podcast on the Block you could check it out at the Scoop pod I Believe it's hosted by the block. Uh, very very interesting.

but here's just kind of one of the the main segments that I thought you'd be interested in. So what money did you use to purchase those shares in Robin Hood So the first thing I'll say is like dollar bills are generally fungible Which is to say that um what I can give you the answer to is how I was thinking about where that money was coming from and um the uh and the answer there is basically um uh that I basically from you know, trading profits. So what money did you use? Super super awkward to bring and be like remember, dollars are fungible. Just because that 100 Bill comes in doesn't mean we have to use that 100 bill I Think we all know that and this is not commentary from a person who's a whiz kid and knows about crypto and markets and exchanges and it's going to save the world from everything.

What a weird response. Um like basically you just either say how much money do you have from Trading profits that's what the number is and is that number big enough to buy what you bought? Yes or no. uh but the continued and constant beating around the bush if I had to guess and I'm no lawyer I'm not clairvoline I can't tell you anything about the future I Think this is going to seriously come back to bite him in the ass because all of a sudden the lawyers right now who are chomping at the bit to get a piece of this guy, they're starting to learn all the things that he's intentionally being invasive of and they're just gonna hammer it home. especially when it's in a court of law and not a recording where like, we're not really held to certain legal obligations.

Crazy open FTX Crash shows cryptocurrency Market Needs Bank Like regulation. This might be true. This might not be true I Mean it kind of depends what the regulation is I mean I Still think it's an important pillar of crypto to have decentralization. but I also understand that maybe if especially if you're in the U.S Like proof of reserves, proof of liabilities is everything backed one to one is the actual money there I Think there's probably some like happy medium that we could all find between decentralization and the government not having a hand in it, but also protection to avoid complete rampant fraud like we've recently been seeing.

But my biggest point in bringing this up to you is okay. yeah, this might be true, this might not be true, but you know what is really true. We in our markets all markets. clearly it's being highlighted by crypto right now.

But equities Futures options and clearly crypto. We need an adult in the room we need Gary Gensler to do his job Gary Gensler the guy whose literal job is to make sure that this doesn't happen met with: Sam Bakeman freed multiple times, worked with Caroline Ellison's father at MIT connected the Ellisons to Sam Bateman Freed at MIT The dude who was meant to protect all of us because we are engaging in the markets in the US of a was not there. He says he was there, but the guy isn't at all the amount of evidence that pours onto this dude's desk and it makes you wonder: is he that corrupt on a personal level or is it the political Arena That maybe that guy is fighting as hard as he can, but at every single step he takes, maybe he's getting shut down by some sort of competitor I Don't know I don't know necessarily the political nature surrounding the SEC I Just thought if you were the chairman of the SEC you had like a bit more sway to do what you thought was right and maybe that's wrong. Maybe there's other Congress people or other powerful influential people who are blocking them.

That's possible. But regardless it comes down to the fact of there is not the appropriate adult in the room running things the way they should be run. I Just feel as if something's running in the U.S You kind of trust in the U.S Regulators for making it appropriate. So Ftxus was running in the U.S Why in the world was there not more of an Insight from a regulatory body of what was going on between FTX us? FTX International Alameda You would think that that part of it, that minuscule part of it was within U.S Regulators Jurisdiction and you think they would look into it? Blows my mind.

Some men employees claim they are not getting promised Severance I Have no idea about that story. Now the next thing I want to get into is why: I Personally believe you should be bullish I should be bullish over the next about two-ish days I'm going to show you the math I'm going to show you my reasoning I'm going to show you all the figures but I believe the Bulls are going to win out over the next two days. I might be right I might be wrong and I could even give you the odds of me being right and me being wrong. Like what's the percentage chance of this all going down? But before we get into my reasoning, shout out to Brick House Nutrition If you want to be built like a brick house, boy oh boy do I have a product for you.

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But check all this out pinned to the top of the chat in the description of the video. Use the code matte when you're checking out to get a discount and once again this is all from Brick House Nutrition All right, cool. Let me so shout out to them, check them out, show them a little bit of love and now what I want to show all of you is exactly why I Believe we are going to see a bullish bias. Maybe another way for me to say this is why I think there is a bullish Edge in the overall stock market over the next two days and I can explain it perfectly and to really get the ball rolling.

Obviously the next two days we start with 10 Tuesday then we go to Wednesday. So let me give my dual reasoning for Tuesday and then my specific reasoning for Wednesday. So why am I bullish on Tuesday? Well, the simple answer to that is that the market was pretty down today. So here we are the day before Tuesday.

Most of the time that's a Monday in terms of trading, but sometimes the training day before Tuesday is actually a Friday if there's a holiday or something. But there is a strong strong pattern in the world of trading if the trading day before Tuesday which is most likely a Monday. So I'll just say Monday. But just so you know, it could be a Friday if the trading day before Tuesday drops more than one percent the odds of Tuesday being green or extraordinarily High the more Monday drops, the better the odds are of Tuesday being green.

This is called Turn Around Tuesday And you might be thinking to yourself, okay, you're telling me that it's a good strategy. You're telling me that this is the thing that I like really, just need to know about and I'll show it to you all right now, I'm going to show you those exact odds. Let me bring up my own code. So here's my code and let me switch it over so we can all read it.

The code's not really the point of it, but what? I'm Oops here we go. Here's the point of it, um I wish I could make this a little bit bigger, but what you need to know is basically I said If the previous close is below the current close as in I want Friday to be read I Also want it to be greater than one percent. That's what I did. Uh, the code isn't really a part of it I just wanted to let you know that I code it up, turn around Tuesday and then I applied it to this account.

So for example, let's just like spot check me right here was a pretty one of the most recent trades right here. Uh, this strategy went long. It ended up being a loss on August 23rd. So basically we see on August 22nd that it fell pretty far.

It opened at 4237. This is the S P 500 futures market and it ended up closing at 4158 which is clearly a drop of more than one percent. And the only other fact check that we have to do there is to ensure that that was in fact the day before a holiday. And if I look at this right here.

Yes, uh, August 22nd was a Monday which is exactly why it went long on Tuesday. Now in this particular example, it was in fact a loss. But let me show you how this is actually performed over like a serious amount of time. So I ran this back.

um, just over 25 years If you look at the S P 500 futures Market over the past 25 years and apply this concept. if the day before, a Tuesday is a drop more than one percent. what happens if you go long on Tuesday when the Market opens? What happens if you are actively engaging in the market as a bull on a Tuesday after a very bad drop the day before? Well, the odds are right here. Out of 180 times that this has happened, 101 were winning trades, 76 were losing trades, three were even trades.

which means your accuracy is 56 percent. A little bit better than flipping a quarter, but if you take a look at the profit, Factor Basically, for every single dollar you lose, how many dollars do you make? Well, for every single dollar you lose, you make two dollars. so it's pretty solid. This strategy has lost 64 000 has made 128 000.

Which means it is net ahead by 63.5 000.. if you're looking at the average winning trade, you have 1.2 K The average losing trade is 850.. Now I Don't want us to get too bogged down in the magnitude of these numbers because you could choose to do it however you want. If you want to trade one.

Futures Contract Great Trade one. If you want to trade ten, multiply everything by ten if you want to do it through the Spy Great! How many shares did this buy? So don't get focused on the magnitude, get focused on the percentages. what's the profit? Factor what's the accuracy and then you could kind of scale it to your heart's desire. But overall The Profit Factor the percentage, profitability And really you could look at some of the like sharp ratios and stuff.

But as you can see from 2002 to now, this is a beautiful looking Equity curve A beautiful looking Equity curve. In fact it made a new all-time high in December of 2021. Since then it sold off, popped a little, sold off a little bit more. so.

the strategy is taking a little bit of a drawdown. but overall if you're looking at the system, this from 2002 until now, this has been a very profitable, solid trading strategy. So that's part of my reason for tomorrow. Part of my reasoning of why Tuesday tomorrow could be green turnaround Tuesday Another thing I want to bring up to you is the seasonality of tomorrow.

So tomorrow is the fifth trading day in December this particular year. So I wrote my strategy to say okay I'm looking at trading day Four is today the fourth trading day of the year. Great if it is, go long on the next open. what are the odds of that scenario? So this is a little bit more Broad in the sense that I'm pretty particularly targeting this month and this trading day.

So if you look at this trading day of the month which happens to be Tdom 5 trading Day of the Month five if we look at that for every single December from 1997 until now, how has this particular day done? and the day I'm referring to is for tomorrow? So I hope you're I hope you're watching this in real time. Well The Profit Factor is three point. Oh, hang on I Want to make sure we are on the right? Nope I need to dial it back by one day. so this is for Wednesday Hang on.

Let me just so, tomorrow is going to be Td04 so you have to run it the day before. Regardless, like that's just a part of like me using this tool. What you need to know is for Tuesday right here: Profit factor of 1.5 going long. Um, the win percentage is 52 and the P L to draw down is 1.14 I Mean we've seen better numbers, but overall this is a little bit messy.

You Could argue that from Hang On Oops, Uh, you could argue. From 2002 until 2018 it was fine. Then it took two years of pretty big hits and then since then it's been trying to recover. So tomorrow when I see a neutral leaning bullish seasonal pattern on top of a turnaround Tuesday I Would say those two things align in.

one's pretty bullish. see the other one's like a little bullish, so there's no nothing really contradicting. They both are lying to be bullish. so this is for tomorrow.

Tuesday Now what I kind of accidentally initially showed you is the seasonality for Wednesday So let's just move this ahead by one day and this is where it gets nuts. So we already have Tuesday turn around Tuesday We also know the seasonal ideas um, performance of this particular Tuesday. But when you look at Wednesday the profit Factor jumps up to three, the win percentage goes up to 56 and the pay L to draw down ratio is almost at 2.8 And a look at this Equity curve you can tell right here. Way way different.

So ever since 2008 this thing has been rocking just ripping to the High Heavens Once again, this is for Wednesday of the week, so on Tuesday we have turnaround. Tuesday We have a slight bullish linging in terms of seasonality and then rolling into Wednesday we have a massive bullish lien and with all those three things together, that's exactly when I saw the market selling off today I Thought to myself, hey, probably a pretty good reason to buy this dip because not only are we buying it off of a trend line, but we're heading into a two-day period. What? I would argue over various systems Tell us it pays to be a bull Now Is any of this guaranteed? No, it's not. It's the same way if you're playing whatever poker in your doubt pocket aces or if you're playing Blackjack and you are dealt two tens.

That doesn't mean you're gonna win, but it's the point of what is. is your Edge Because you have to look at these types of scenarios of not an individual trade, you never want to go all in on a particular trade. You're looking at scenarios where the odds favor you and you play those scenarios time and time and time again. So my entire argument here is the odds are favoring the Bulls over the next two days.

Is that in any means a guarantee that the next two days have to be green? Absolutely not. My entire point is is when we see situations like this. If you take all these situations when the odds are favoring you over many data points, many trades, that is a net profitable methodology. So this all wrapped up turn around Tuesday Neutral to bullish bias on Tuesday and then a strong bullish bias on Wednesday.

Those are my three reasons on why over the next two days. On top of the technicals is the fact that we're at a trend line I Think we should lean bullish I'm personally doing it. maybe you agree, maybe you disagree, but I kind of showed you the facts and the figures. It's just the same way of like you can know the odds of pocket aces or tens in blackjack.

That doesn't mean you win it every single one. and that's why you should never go all in on one. particular play. But you're always looking for the odds to favor you and when you find those situations, you keep taking advantage of them.

Now, with all of that out of the way, hang on. Let me just quickly check when this Twitter drop's supposed to happen. Um, it is still saying 6 30. I reloaded my page it was 2 30 yesterday and then I got pushed to 350 and then 3 15 today, then five today, then six.

Now now it's at 6 30. Um, we'll see how it goes. if it does stream I'm gonna stream it live just so everyone knows. Um, that's if you're watching this live with me, that's in just under half an hour.

Um, so I want to throw that out there that if the Twitter files round to live coverage happens, we're going to be listening to it. Uh, we'll listen to it as long as it's a good thing to listen to. Uh, but I just wanted to put that out there to everyone. If there's any questions, comments, concerns, this is the perfect time to ask them.

In the meantime, if I could kindly ask you guys to all hit the like button and also don't forget to subscribe if you enjoyed this type of content. If you guys like more of like the math and quantitative stuff, please let me know I guess I'm always just trying to make the content that I think you guys will enjoy the most. Um, so if you're like no, no, like we really like this. We want to know the pockets of bullishness.

We want to know the pockets of bearishness so we can potentially trade off of that if this is content that you find to be a little bit more usable in your own life and something that you find of more interest. Um, please please let me know. when's my birthday again? my birthday is every day. You need to adjust your model to bear and bull market.

You can do that. But if you find something that performs properly in Bull and Bear markets, that's a good thing. Um, so you want to find systems that are ideally robust enough to perform well in many Market environments, you can do further tuning with Bull and Bear markets like. That's a very fair thing that I've done many, many times.

But overall, like what I just showed you on turn Around Tuesday That was me just generically running it over the past 25 years. So you're talking about 2008. You're talking about the.com Bubble You're talking about many things of good and bad times and yet it's still performed. Uh if Green tomorrow, where do you see spy going? uh, probably pretty much the top of that trend line.

like not too too crazy. um but I'll be watching like those low 400s who are you taking in football tonight? um I nothing I mean things have just been so crazy. Oh I should probably shout out to all of you that I'm actually going to like a big conference on Wednesday like in on Manhattan Um, it's gonna be a big crypto conference so uh, probably no. Definitely no morning stream but I'm gonna try to stream from the event I Just want to give a heads up that Wednesday is going to be a weird day just so everyone knows I'm gonna try to do what I can live but it might end up all being recorded interviews that I end up posting later.

So I just want to give you guys a heads up that Wednesday of this week in terms of like the streams and the content and everything, uh, it's going to be a little bit funky and I'm gonna do what I can. All right? All right. All right. All right.

Well I think that's it. Any questions, any questions? any questions? any questions? I'm not saying anything. well I appreciate all the Good Vibes Um, if you guys want to hang out and listen to the Twitter files. Round two: Live coverage on later on this evening.

Allegedly it's still happening yesterday it was canceled I Hope it follows through today so we're gonna find out. but I hope to catch you there if the event actually starts to happen. Um, but that's in a mere 45 minutes. If you have any questions about systematic like basic systematic training, we'd love to discuss it with you, but the tldr of this is Sam Bakeman Freed is most likely a massive fraud that's lying to all of us and I think it'll pay to be bullish over the next two days.

That's pretty much the synopsis of what in the world is going on on your way out. Don't forget to hit the like button. Don't forget to hit the Subscribe button and show a little bit of love to today's stream sponsors: I'm talking about Brick House Nutrition and Enviro Cleanse all pinned to the top of Chat in the description of the video. Shout out to them and shout out to All of You B-e-a Beautiful People I'll catch you later.