In this video, I discuss the outlook on Netflix's stock and break down the weekly and daily chart. Enjoy!
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RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Performance results are hypothetical and all trades are simulated. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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Hey what's going on everyone, i hope you're having a great day, i'm matt, and in this video i will be breaking down netflix's stock on both a fundamental and technical level. I know we all have different, investing and trading time horizons, so i will be looking at both the long and short time frame if you're interested in this type of content subscribe to the channel and don't forget to turn on your notifications. So you don't miss any of the new videos. It would mean a lot to me if you could hit the like button and leave a comment.
All the engagement really helps with getting this video in front of other people. For those of you who don't know, netflix is a gigantic 200 billion dollar plus streaming service beyond offering a wildly popular product. Netflix's stock is a favorite among traders and investors because it offers volatile swings which could potentially amount to massive returns in terms of the bigger picture. Over the past three years, netflix's revenue has grown by 83 percent on top of that, their earnings, growth and cash flow growth has greatly outpaced the industry.
Since the start of 2018, the stock has rallied 168 percent. Much of these gains can be attributed to a continual growth in subscriptions and revenue. The bull camp argues that these numbers will continue to grow as netflix expands globally. The bear camp has a different opinion.
They argue that this growth isn't sustainable, especially when you consider the increased competition. They argue that the market could become saturated because now there's other big players such as amazon, prime disney plus hulu hbo, just to name a few. Even comcast is coming out with a new service called peacock. I do think this is a fair criticism, but i personally side with the bulls.
My reasoning is that this isn't a zero-sum game. When disney launched their streaming service, they quickly gained 55 million subscriptions netflix continued to grow, which proves consumers are willing to pay for multiple streaming services. Additionally, i think the sector as a whole has a lot of potential and netflix is well positioned to take advantage of that. There are analysts who think that, as netflix continues its global campaign, it could go from 182 million subscriptions to 600 million.
This is why i personally think that the sector isn't saturated and the company will continue to grow over the long term in terms of investing you'll want to get in at points of support and sell at points of resistance, since the stock recently hit a new high From a charting perspective, the resistance would be at 5.75, it's difficult to pick out resistance points above this recent high, because the chart hasn't developed in this area. With that in mind, goldman sachs does have a price target of 630 dollars from the most recent close. These resistance points would be a gain of 9 and 20. These are good targets if you already have a long position, but if you don't you'll want to get in at support from a weekly perspective, the first support would be the region between 450 and 459 dollars. This region served as resistance in april and may of 2020.. It's very common for previous resistance to turn into future support, not far below that there's another support at 423, which was a previous high and also an area of consolidation. If the bears really pushed this market down, i would be excited to buy at the support of 386 dollars. This region has served as resistance on four separate occasions and also served as support in april of this year.
There is no guarantee that the stock will return to these levels, but to get there, the first region would be a decline of 13.5. The second one would be 19 and the third one would be 26 percent. You would want to buy and sell as close to these levels as you can, so you can optimize your risk to reward to get a better idea of. What's going on on a shorter time frame, here's a look at the daily chart in the year 2020 alone.
The stock has rallied 61 percent at its low with all the global craziness. The stock was only down 11. Since then the stock has gained a ridiculous 81. These impressive numbers might make you wonder, what's going on, because so many companies are suffering while netflix is seemingly going to the moon.
I mean come on. In july alone, the company has gained over 15 percent. The reason for this is that we now have a stay-at-home economy. Many people are spending much more time at home, which has led to them buying services such as netflix.
In the first quarter of this year, netflix solar record knew 15.8 million subscribers, which represented a 23 year-over-year growth. This recent run is simply explained by more subscribers, which leads to higher revenue. So the question now is: will the stock continue to run, or is the party over the answer to that in the short term, largely relies on the results of the earnings report on july 16th, netflix previously put out guidance that they're expecting 7 million new subscribers? Some analysts at ubs think the number will be closer to 7.5 million and have a price target of 535.. More bullish.
Analysts at goldman think the number will be closer to 12 million and have a price target of 670. I don't have much of an opinion on this, because it's a binary event it will either be over or under. However, i can point out the support and resistance levels. I will be watching.
The main resistance will be the previous high of 575 dollars from the most recent close. That would be a gain of 9 in terms of support. The first one i would be watching is 474. below.
That would be this region where netflix did a lot of consolidating. This range found support where there was previous resistance in the high 390s and finally, even though i don't think it'll happen, there is support at 290. from the most recent close. The first support would be at a decline of 10, the top of the range would be 13 and the bottom of the range would be 25. I want to quickly bring to your attention the rsi, even though it doesn't have to when stocks get to these extreme overbought levels. It is common for them to decline and consolidate. However, binary events, such as earnings reports, do have the potential to pump the rsi levels up even higher. You could always use the nasdaq 100 as a barometer which is tracked by qqq, there's a good chance.
If the queues continue, their journey upward netflix will continue to run. On the other hand, if the cues break down from this bear flag, which is statistically common, it could drag netflix with it keep in mind. None of this is a must, which is why you should be trading from level to level, so you can optimize your risk to reward. What are your thoughts on netflix? Let me know if you're, bullish or bearish in a comment below if you enjoyed the video.
Let me know by hitting the like button, if you enjoyed this type of content subscribe to the channel and don't forget to turn on your notifications thanks for watching and as always best of luck in the markets.
netflix options will go crazy
New title… Will NFLX go back up to 500? lol
nice channel bro im new to investing nd in depth videos like this help
Dude fuck Netflix rn I bought it at the wrong time
Wow, excellent presentation, great editing, and lovely charting. Subbed
I think Quibi is going to take over Netflix
Well explained
Your videos are great
hahaha NFLX To The Moon
I'm excited for the Earnings Report
Bullish as well in the long run. Netflix also has their own production side with their series, which have historically been well received, especially with no one really utilizing movie theatres.
I’m bullish. Netflix is the base service for streaming. Competitors like Disney+ and Hulu are Subscriptions that are purchased in addition to having a Netflix as opposed to in favor/replacement of Netflix. Expect Netflix to be estimates in the long run
Netflix and invest?