Will The Real Bulls Please Stand Up
The Matt Kohrs Show
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RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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The Matt Kohrs Show
Trading Education
⇒ Top 10 Trading Patterns: https://youtu.be/t8WAZYW1KvM
Check This Out
⇒ Top Charting Software: https://bit.ly/GoonieCharts
Sponsors
⇒ Goonie Trading Group (FREE Month w/ Code GOONIE): https://bit.ly/LocalsMG
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#Trading #Stocks #Options
Please be sure to LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and turn on them NOTIFICATIONS.
Let me know in the comments if there is anything I can improve on moving forward.
Thanks for Watching!
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
Foreign. How much you've got us foreign this time, brother Hello Hello! Welcome back to the Mad Core show for today Thursday July 27th or should I better call it the day that the Bulls slept in I Guess they were up partying all night making the pre-market session look oh so green just to do nothing all day today. as you can see from the title, will the real Bulls Please stand up. What in the world happened today now I Want to talk about exactly how I viewed today I did Place one trade? It didn't turn out well, but I want to talk about how really following the rules like at least offered a little bit of protection.
So I definitely want to be getting into that with all of you I want to get into really what happened in terms of market economic reports, that type of stuff, what's going on with earnings? What's going on with technicals and some other interesting stories that I found throughout the day? So yes, we have a jam-packed show for you. We have a lot, a lot, a lot to go over and my headphones are not on, right? So as I'm figuring those out, make sure you smash the like button. Don't forget to subscribe. And with that being said, what is this one Boj news? Matt That's what happened Boj I Don't know what Boj stands for.
Um, I Know that there's some banking updates, some banking overhaul I Have no idea what you're talking about with Boj but to subscribe a huge market sell-off across every single sector I Don't know if it's going to be one particular thing. If anything, uh oh Bank of Japan sorry um I thought you're talking about the U.S banks There's a lot of overhauls I got announced I think for uh, like Capital requirements maybe below a hundred million. something like that. um what was it? Uh yeah, something with capital requirements.
Hundred hundreds million. So anyway, as you can tell, a lot to go over, a lot to go over, a lot to go over. So let's let's chat about. let's kind of get right into it.
and I want to show you that the bloodbath that is today, the bloodbath that is today. look at this: the Spy opening as high as 459. vomiting down to 453 vomiting six dollars. You have the cues opening up at 384.43 coming all the way down to 376..
Brutal Brutal. Brutal. Brutal. Huge gap UPS Not only do we get the downside Gap Fields but we got that and some now.
obviously I did not catch a piece of this just because I was in the bullish mindset. I mean based on where we were opening, we recently had higher highs, higher lows I didn't really see reason to be bearish at open today so I missed the Bears trade. but even though I was going for the bullish trade I was trying to trade with Trend Um, at least this is why you have stops. and because sometimes you have crazy things like this.
Boj to discuss yield curve control tweak to allow rates over 0.5 percent. Uh, that's what the Nike it's gonna have an impact. Uh, it's definitely gonna have an impact if you look at something like the dollar. but with this there's a lot more going on for this. this is gonna I mean think about the market. There's always just many, many things happening borderline. infinite amount of variables because different people are looking at different things at different time frames with different risk tolerances. and with this huge gap up I mean of course you're going to have some profit taking.
Then when things start to break down you're gonna have like okay, you're gonna have some people who are scared and they pull the rip cord. then you have some Chaser pushing it down I believe it's on spot Gamma that pointed out how many puts started to get bought. Let me right here. Uh put buyers came in this afternoon unlocking after the SPX touch fresh Highs at the 4600 call wall as in the afternoon with zero DT Um, one would assume that they try and bring some mean reversion before the close.
Maybe maybe maybe maybe maybe So even this pointing out just a giant spike in put buying Lots going on Lots going on and obviously I just I'm so amaz. even this internals flashed a little bit red between 11, 30 and 12 but then really you could see it here. yeah at 1 30. the internals want red and they have not looked back, just absolutely vomiting down with the EMA you can see here on the Spy once again little red flash but going red really at 130? uh right on this break kind of in here when we made it new fresh low.
Also basically when we were getting that Gap Bill and it just did not look back. Brutal, brutal, Brutal. absolutely insane. Obviously these days can happen.
they're a bit of a rarity. this is a very large range day on all the E major index. ETFs Obviously they do happen but they don't happen that commonly. Dow loses more than 100 points on Pace to stop historic shriek of 13th straight gains.
So we were referring that to the it this record this morning and we were talking about how like the last time that happened was back in like the late 1800s. but as things are closing right now it looks like it does not matter now obviously. I'm always here to teach you guys some things and we know right now Ai is a very very big thing, important aspect in our lives but also very important within the market. and there are things that I think we should rightly like.
there are things we should barely listen to in terms of. Should we be warned about it, give it a listen. What up? Council I Am here to discuss artificial intelligence AI is going to take all of our jobs and render us useless and I for one am stoked I Hate jobs I Had a job once and everyone there talked in weird voices AI is gonna 86 all of that. but but we'll still need money.
That is why I'm asking the government to step up and make sure we're breaded. We are proposing a small payment plan or a small PP of 10g a month for every citizen so we can party and look hot and enjoy our free time. Now we can't afford to just sit back and have Ai bust through and not have a plan. We got to make sure people have food and houses so we can party and rage. In Peace So instruct AI to pay all of us and then you dudes can retire gracefully before you get replaced and we'll see you at the beach. The bonfires will be epic. Everybody will be hot Martin Luther King thank you Martin Luther King What a way to end the speech? Uh I Feel like I Feel like that's all that has to be said. Nothing really add on there I Think it's all very very valid points.
Now on the flip side, this was not meant to be comedic and when you realize how real it is, this is incredibly sad. Just this morning we were talking about how Mitch McConnell is not fit To be in office I Also pointed out how other players such as Biden not Fit to be in office John Fetterman not fit to be in office Dianne Feinstein Not fit to be in office And just on the day that I say that this is what the latter in the group Feinstein decides to do Einstein They're just telling you they're just say I Just say I say I I Would like to support a yes vote on this? Um, it provides 823 billion. That's an increase of 26 billion for the Department of Defense And it funds priorities Submitted All right. Thank you.
Another phenomenal example of how they're They're obviously just there. Their brain is there. they're doing their job. It's not like they need their handlers or anything.
They are clearly clearly fit for the job that they are doing. Absolutely insane. On the note about government, um, what's crazy about Feinstein Feinstein Whatever we want to call her, she's actually one of the most prolific Traders Which begs the question: What? what's going on? You're telling me that that lady who can barely keep a vote is one of the most prolific political Traders Yeah, she crushes it in the market like so many other politicians do in a bipartisan pair of senators wants to ban U.S lawmakers, senior executive branch officials, and their families from owning and trading stocks. The bill from New York Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand and Missouri Republican Josh Hawley would not allow exceptions even for blind trusts.
Members of Congress and Senior White House officials would be hit with fines if they break the rules and the law would also beef up 2012's stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act Joining us now Senators at Gillibrand and Holly and welcome to you both and it's nice to see you uh, together. I'll start with you Senator Gillibrand. The the argument is that we don't want total business neophytes in positions of power. That's that's the Devil's Advocate That there's actually some benefit to having people that know how to maneuver around the stock market.
Um, I guess I Think that matters? No, no. What we're trying to do is that right now we have a law that requires transparency. It was called the Stock Act and if you buy and sell Um stocks and trade, you have to disclose what you're doing because the risk is that a lot of members have access to a great deal of non-public information and the facts show that members of Congress have a 17 higher rate of return than the S P 500 in their stock trading. So that would lend you to think maybe they're super super smart or they have access to non-public information and about one out of seven members. how funny would it be if she paused and she's like and we know they're not super smart Congress did not disclose their trades properly in the last Congress So we have a problem here and since Congress is not abiding by the rules that we put in place a decade ago I believe and I think Josh shares this view that they should be banned from buying and selling stock because they have so much non-public information. you know? I've said this before and I will say this again. Did you hear what she said there? They should be stopped from buying and selling stock. That's the loophole I am calling it out to you right now.
You know what the loophole is going to be that they're just trading options and other derivatives. So to me, I Don't know if these people who are attempting to make seemingly a smart rule a smart set of laws that politicians shouldn't be trading I don't know if they're just doing it to like win favor with the public and they're like, oh, that's an easy one because how are they overlooking this time and time again, they're like they shouldn't be able to buy and sell stock. Okay, they're not going to do it, they're just gonna be yoloing options, a thing that they're already doing. So if you're wondering where the loophole is going to be, it's in the fact that all these people were pushing for quote-unquote beefed up rules related to political insider trading.
It none of it's talking about options. which is crazy when we know that they're trading hundreds of millions of dollars worth of options. So I if this ever gets passed, and I hope it does, because it's at least a step in the right direction. whether they have the proper intent or not.
Whatever that may, maybe they do, maybe they don't I don't know anything going on in their mind, but to not see these glaring loopholes I mean it is pretty pretty evident. Now the last thing: I Want to talk to you about the government today? Just something to consider because this could have an impact also on the stock market. U.S Government shutdown threatened as Congress to parts for August House GOP canceled expected vote on AG funding bill Government Funding will expire September 30th without a deal the U.S House budget process ground to a sudden halt Thursday amid simmering conflicts over spending levels and hot button social issues raising the risk of government shutdown ahead of the September 30th deadline, lawmakers in the House and Senate are leaving Washington this week for an extended August recess with budget disagreements entirely unresolved. Nothing like them going on break when they haven't resolved what they need to resolve Always blows my mind. The house isn't scheduled to return until September 12th with a long to-do list that includes passing 11 of the 12 annual appropriation bills and reconciling differences with the Senate over the course of just 12 planned work days that month they work for 12 days out of the month. Apparently After coming back from a break. What a job! What an amazing, amazing job! Well there you have it. That's what's going on with our U.S government Right now.
let's talk to the about the US economy. So early this morning, we got the GDP report U.S Economy Powers ahead boosting chances of averting a recession GDP grew at 2.4 Pace in the second quarter, topping expectations despite recession calls gross domestic product Rose At 2.4 percent annualized Pace In the second quarter, topping the two percent estimate according to Investing.com they were expecting 1.8 so no matter who you're asking, it was beating the estimate. Consumer spending powered the solid quarter, aided by increases in non-residential fixed investment, government spending, and inventory growth. a Commerce Department inflation gauge increased 2.6 percent down from 4.1 percent rise in Q1 and well below the estimate for a gain of 3.2 As you can see, we have a little bit of breaking news right here with the Dow Dao sheds 250 points to hit session lows on Pace to snap historic winning streak.
Not so. Bueno So yes, this morning we did get the GDP report came out an hour before the market opened. The economy is stronger than expected, less initial jobless claims than expected as well. So we actually got two strong economic signs this morning.
And then also in terms of pending home sales, they were expecting a drop of 0.5 percent, actually came in at an increase of 0.3 and I do want you to know that for tomorrow: Friday 28th I Hope you're watching this in time. An hour before the Market opens, we get the next inflation report. The core Pce report gonna be very important core or really the personal consumption expenditure. that inflation report coming out an hour before the Market opens.
So yeah, today's a wild day and I fully expect tomorrow to be another wild day now. Part of the reason things were looking so incredibly good. Oh my. God We are just selling.
Look at this. This selling is is just the Bulls are getting steamrolled right now. Absolutely steamrolled. Metastock surges after earnings as year of efficiency pays off.
So that's why we had such a nice Gap Up is because Meta did great with its earnings. We're now below the Spy is below the low of yesterday, and the queues are almost at the low of yesterday. This is getting wild if you got puts on this. Congratulations I didn't get puts because today when the market opened I was like oh, it's going to be a bit of a bearish day and the first time I really could have got put I mean I'm trying to I guess Do a real-time breakdown with all of you folks here. let me see this over here. Um, I suppose I could have tried to capture this, but technically that would have been breaking my rule too. I Don't like to make a new position this close to the end of the day. So I on the breakdown, the pop-up of yesterday's low and then the re-breakdown of it right in this bar somewhere roughly around like whatever 4 53, 25-ish we'll call it I could have taken that, but that would have been breaking one of my like not so important rules but a rule nonetheless to not be trading right at the end of the day.
That's the first time I could have potentially got in because all the way up until really up until about 2 30 something like that I was not like we were still above yesterday's low. In fact, we opened above yesterday's high just where where we were on the daily chart. I was not geared up to take any put play so I theoretically could have taken this on the re-test the breakdown. but and it's just just a day that necessarily wasn't for me.
So things looking really good partly because of Meta, partly because of the GDP report, partly because the market thinking hey, maybe we could pull off this soft Landing but I almost wonder this is just me thinking out loud here I almost wonder since I am a fan of the concept that the market inherently Works in to punish the most amount of people at the one time I wonder if the Market's finally wow we are going to go higher like I almost wonder if this is the point where because of The Gap up because of the earnings because of the GDP I wonder if today's Gap up ends up being really the high water mark because I wonder if that was the point where the Bears finally threw in the town and they're like, you know what? we were just wrong. We don't have any, we're just not going to get it right. I wonder if the Bears threw in the towel and now that they thrown in the towel, the Market's like okay, cool no, we are overextended. time to sell off that type of a Vibe very well could be.
Obviously with that being said, there are other earnings so we know uh, Chipotle Miss McDonald's actually impressive Global growth Southwest ended up having some issues as well. Um, after the market closes today I Just want to throw on your radar Ford Intel Roku and then before the Market opens tomorrow tomorrow Exxon and Chevron Also PNG Speaking of oil, where we we at right now. oil is actually still holding. oil is doing its thing just below 80 a barrel.
Obviously the volatility is there, but still holding on. I Cannot get over this sell-off it is just kidding me. It's just no, no stop in sight. Absolutely crazy.
Absolutely crazy. Now before I share my one trade of the day right here. I Just want you to know tomorrow Friday July 28th Um it it's leading bullish. Uh the Bulls have won it 60 of the time. The profit factor is 1.27 It's not absurdly bullish, but I would definitely argue. leaning bullish. So not the most bullish, but leaning bullish so that is the seasonality for tomorrow. and now I do want to share my one trade of the day that did not go over too well.
Um, here, let me get rid of this. for now, let me get rid of this. Um, it's gonna just be easier to see. So where were we? It was right around here.
Okay, so before we came into today I was looking at pre-market I was like wow, we're way above yesterday's uh I'm just trying to like almost at like particularly high today. So we knew coming into today that we were opening above the high of one, two, three, four days and pretty much above all the way back to five days. So it was the opening with quite a bit of strength. So I was like okay, because of that, we're above these highs.
we're above the lows. My mindset is to look for bullish opportunities I want to trade with a larger Trend To me, the larger trend has been to the upside. that's why I was looking for bullish opportunities. Then today we open I Don't trade in the first 15 20 minutes.
then we came down. okay I'm not really seeing any strength. In fact, we had a little bit of bearishness between 11, 35 and 12. So okay, whatever.
But then comes right here. This breakout I was like, okay, we're trending down, we're puncturing I guess these previous highs I see some higher lows clearly. at this point at 12 25, there was a bit of a bullish uptrend and then obviously reasonable risk could be placed here at 382.59 So I went long into this breakout, had reasonable risk and it obviously just didn't. Some of these trades are not gonna go in your favor.
so I was looking for the bullish trade thought I saw the opportunity, thought it had reasonable risk. reward risk could have been placed and this is all up to you at 32.59 with a reward of the intraday high or potentially a breakout on a run. So going and we'll just saying like maybe you were looking particularly for this break just to give like you exact numbers here. So in terms of risk reward, let's see how it actually would have uh, been done I Just want to get you the exact ratios of the opportunity I took and once again it did not work out.
Obviously as you can see what happened in the market um, but roughly in the realm of what is it? risk to reward ratio 2.4 so that's a nice one. If these hit roughly 40, 50, 60 of the time, you're gonna still get paid. So I like to trade, it just didn't work out for me this time. Went up a little bit, chopped came down I Thought in here was actually about to recover I Really like this 1pm bar and then by the time we got to 105 it just got destroyed.
Um so I mean obviously it's up to each individual of how they want to handle their own risk to reward tolerance. I Was looking for the bullish trades. it just didn't come today and that's gonna happen. Please keep in mind even some of the best Traders They're only winning 40 50 60 of the time you're not going to be finding a strategy that's like 99 accurate. It just does not work like that. That's not how trading works. it's more of understanding that you're basically flipping a coin, but looking for your winners to be considerably bigger than your losers. That's how you really get ahead in the game of trading and then basically to protect myself like um, or so I obviously knocked out of that one.
Um, wherever you had your risk, you're probably gonna get hit. You could have risked that that like any of these lows, you were eventually hit. and the reason I didn't chase this down is obviously I don't want to chase any breakdowns. The only time I could have really gotten in because like this was such a brutal self was around here around I guess 3 20.
but I mean it came back into the EMAs as you saw before and then it started to break down here I could have caught that and maybe a little bit of a trade but just I mean it wasn't really. just there was no setup I didn't want to chase try to stick to my rules. We had a big reversion day and it didn't work out how I wanted and yeah if I switch bearish at 1pm that could have been amazing. It could have been like a six figure gain day but it just just not for me.
Um so hey, that's what it's all about I just want to be like let you know of how I looked at it what I was seeing the one shot that I took that clearly just did not pay off. If you somehow have a methodology that told you to get into puts today and you held this whole sell-off I wish you a massive congratulations, you killed it. You made a ton of money. You deserve all the money you made.
But man oh man what a day we had. um not necessarily the most profitable day for me as in I didn't make any profit today, but this Market is just getting destroyed. Absolutely destroyed. We came almost to the low of this whole section today.
Dude is, is this the start of the end? Is this the start of the end? Uh, someone's really going off about Bbig? It doesn't look. What about Bbig is looking good to you? You could have gotten maybe today on this breakout, you could have got in at like 441, risking 380. So even that though percentage-wise that's still a decent percentage. Like you're risking 13 gr.
and right now you're up. You're up one to one. so it's one to one. and I guess if you have an idea that I could go here, it's technically like two to one, so it's in.
It's a fine active trade, but Bbig is a fundamental investment is not. This is not a good company, um, by any fundamental breakdown standards. But hey, if you're in it for an active trade I Wish you luck. I Just say be careful with it. Please respect your risk. Please please please please please please please please please please please respect your risk on that one. All right, so you see what's going on today. The polls are nowhere to be found.
They were out like I said partying way too much. Which brings up an interesting question of what in the world are we doing today. Technically, today's high is higher than yesterday's high. Technically, today's low is higher than yesterday's low.
So in the way that I look at things, it's still a bullish. Trend we have a higher high and a higher low. Things are going to get a little bit crazy if we end up pushing the slow, but we technically didn't do it. We hit as low as 375 31 and yesterday's low was 375 18..
So that's in the NASDAQ The Spies. The Spy is a different story. This is definitely a bullish engulfing channel. so on the S P 500.
this is definitely excuse me, not a bullish engulfing a bearish engulfing when you open above a previous High push all the way down and close below a previous low. That is the definition of a bearish engulfing channel. So uh, on the Spy things are looking a little bit beat up for sure. The cues are Holding On by like the Skin of Their Teeth uh Apple another bearish engulfing uh Microsoft We thought about this.
Do you guys remember yesterday in the wrap-up show of how I was pointing out uh that they there were millions and millions and millions of dollars being bought on Microsoft puts. almost as if someone knew something was going down, but all we saw for expiration today and tomorrow Microsoft puts were being loaded up. Um, so feel free to watch that stream from yesterday and we just saw millions and millions coming across for it. Meta still actually green on the day up four percent so I mean brutal intraday trading, but still green overall Nvidia holding up somewhat decently up one percent Amazon Also up technically green on the day, but nothing holding that early morning pop.
Truly crazy. Truly, truly a crazy day. All right, that's all the major things I have for you I do want to remind you tomorrow seasonally does favor the bull slightly. I want to put that out there? Uh, hang on, are we missing anything else? All right, we have that little bit of a pop and close.
actually in a weird way I'm happy I didn't take the trade because sometimes things like this happen like unless I perfectly timed it I Guess buying puts at this breakdown at 377. unless like and for even for me I would have been targeting this so I'm actually really happy I didn't get into this play really happy I didn't get into this play because I would have been sure it would have ended up being a losing trade for me if I ended up taking this because I would have been like oh I'm targeting 375 18. it technically never got there and then on this bounce back because of training options with data I would have been destroyed. So um, this is a good reason that I have those rules of trying to not trade so late just because the way options premium moves like you could get really, really really messed up. So actually kind of happy that I avoided that. But hey, once again for you folks, if you ended up catching the huge sell-off in the spy and the cues or whatever your Equity was that sold off. Congrats for you! I just wasn't in that mindset today so I kind of just avoided it. There was one little opportunity to go bullish, it obviously got smashed pretty quickly.
so depending on how you did it, that's up to you and your risk management. But other than that, just what a day. What a day. What a day! What a day.
And there we go. The Bell just went. dingy ding ding ding. So either that's the end of your fun to the day or on the other side, that might be the end of your misery.
So whatever it is, it is the den for today now. I Do want to remind you tomorrow tomorrow, Tomorrow tomorrow. I Will be streaming early because the inflation report comes out at 8 30. So we'll be streaming at like 8 20 8 25 so make sure you are ready for that.
We'll be posting some extra content tonight. streaming again tomorrow. it's Friday I Hope you guys are ready and I'm trying to think of anything else that's important. Other than that, if you want my charting software I use Trading View.
You could get some sort of affiliate referral deal pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. That's what I have for you I Appreciate all the Good Vibes I Appreciate all the love I Hope you have a good one I'll catch you back tomorrow. Peace out Thank you Foreign.
The Eminem thumbnail is underrated 😂