Stupid! Thank you Thank you brother. Hello, hello, hello happy Monday July 10th Folks this ain't a normal Monday This ain't a normal Monday by any means. this is Matt's birthday week Monday So every single day Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday We're going to be celebrating, we're going to be partying, and hopefully we're going to be making some money in the market. But if not, I think we'll be able to make some good jokes, see some funny videos that we could react to I Think around, we're gonna have a pretty positive Bueno time.

Uh so I Hope you folks had an enjoyable weekend I Hope you had a fun weekend and if it wasn't relaxing I hope you partied your butt off and you had a really, really good one. But it is time to get back to I Guess the Grindstone Crazy week ahead of us. Lots going on. It's the start of earning season.

We're gonna have a gazillion and a half fed speaker speaking Big Technical developments in some of the major ETFs and also some of the major stocks. Uh, we have a lot going on. a lot going on. but before we get to that I need to share a little bit I need to share a little bit of some of this shenan I Got into this weekend so uh, this time last week my mom calls me up and she says Mateo she doesn't call me that she calls me Matthew In fact, she only calls me Matthew I don't think she's ever called me Matt in my entire life she calls me Matthew she calls me up she says Hey me, you the fam we're gonna go to uh Wildwood and this was not a random suggestion.

Growing up my whole life we would spend like a long weekend. My family, my cousins, Aunt uncles like everyone would go down to the weekend and just whatever. Get one of those Beach motels and like you know they have the efficiency kitchens. It's just easy for little kids.

It was right on the beach and you just hop over and like you're there. It's easy. It's easy for parents. It's easy for the kids.

There's a pool, there's the ocean. like what's there not to love. So it's kind of like a blast from our past. Like a Nostalgia thing we went to that exact same place.

Now for those of you who maybe don't know what happened in Wildwood this weekend. Well the power generation substation caught on fire. It was a blaze. What that also means is the entire Wildwood and Wildwood Crest aisle had no power.

Zero power. It was like wait like it was as if we went back hundreds of years before. Ben Franklin invented electricity you know? So it was pretty wild. and I mean to the point that there that none of even the street lights were working, nothing was working.

The aisle did not have power. So we got there and it quickly became a little bit of a conundrum. My sister and her husband were coming down and this is relevant to the story, but it's a long trip from where they were coming from and she was driving a Tesla and I did some quick math I'm like well they're probably gonna get here and like uh, like they're going to be low on power themselves I'm like if she gets onto the aisle with her Tesla and then the Tesla dies, there's no way to charge the Tesla So then she's stranded in a place that has no power. No.

AC like the grocery stores like the running out of ice, they're running out of water I was like oh this is this is quickly becoming an absolute debacle. so I'm walking up and down the beach and once again because there's no power even the towers around whether you have Verizon a t not really working but I fortunately found like a bar and was able to call her and like don't come on the aisle and I was trying to explain what's going on and of course I lost service I was like dude what is going on and then I I was like she at least knows something up so I'm like maybe she's smart enough to not come on the aisle and we we were right so my mom and I would get back out and we'd call her and we're like don't come she's like where do we go and first thing I do I shit you not is look up a Texas Roadhouse to see where the because like that's where all the best plans come from. You should be planning at a Texas Roadhouse So I look up where the closest Texas Roadhouse is and unfortunately my sister and husband had like already passed it. I was like ah so they found just another random restaurant and we go to this random restaurant and we're coming up with a plan.

We're in a nice area I Don't know how many of you are familiar with New Jersey beaches but this beach. the area was called Avalon and there was like maybe a beach that was connected to its Stone Bridge or stone something and it's actually some of the highest rated beaches like in the Northeast and they were beautiful and everything. but also part of the reason they were so nice is because there's no like hotels or airbnbs. Apparently it's just like where the affluent people from New Jersey New York and I think Philly have homes I don't know I've never been there before my in my life but it was super nice.

the beach was nice, we're having dinner there and we come up with a plan and we're like you know what? I look it up and now it's late. it's like 7 8 p.m and we're trying to get a hotel for that night and we don't know what to do. So one of the closest places that has a ton of hotels is obviously Atlantic City So we're like okay, this is good for a night. we get up to Atlantic City and I'm like well what should we do and I'm looking around I just search things to do.

Atlantic City and both Bill Burr and Anthony Jeselnik are playing. If you guys don't know who Bill Burr and Anthony Jeselnick are are, they're Comedians And they're not just any comedians, they're like in the game of Comedy. Right now they are top tier comedians. Unfortunately, we weren't in time to make Bill Burr show, so we went to Anthony Jeselnik and I'm just saying that because it was later Builders was at eight, we weren't going to make it there in time.

so we ended up going to Anthony Jeselnik and um I've seen his specials I've never seen him in person if you have the opportunity to see him in person I Highly, highly, highly recommend it. He was hilarious, absolutely hilarious. Saw him at the Borgata and enjoyed it. Enjoyed it.

Worth the money. worth every single dollar if you have the opportunity to see them. uh I obviously didn't get to see Bill Burr and the reason I was bummed out about that is because he's one of my favorite comedians and I've never had the opportunity to see him live and I was like oh this is gonna be it So I was a little bummed out about that but like Jess I'm like he crushed it. He crushed it, He crushed it, He crushed it.

So anyway now we're leaving and if you're at the Borgata in Atlantic City they like make you walk 18 million miles away to the Uber and Lyft station and I think the trick. there is probably another like Casino psychology thing is where everyone's parking and the cars are dropping off and blah blah blah you. They make you walk back through like 80 of the casino to just get to where the Ubers and lifts are and I think that's like another casino psychology play to keep you in the casino. but anyway we were too smart for that.

So we get out there and we're waiting. I'm I'm there's sister, her husband and my mother and there's this couple and they were like middle age and you could just tell they were drunk guys like eyes barely open and he's trying to figure out his phone and then he's with who I presume to be his wife and she was not by any means. No matter what she was doing it looked like she was always about to fall but then she never fell and when she caught herself she just she still had a cup of beer. A still a cup of beer and she would drink it like she looked like she was about to smash her face off the pavement.

This lady was a walking zombie. She was blacked out and she would just she would gather herself and then just drink some of her beer and she'd stumble a little bit more and their whole up. We've learned. Their whole issue was they could not get an Uber or a lift they thought they called one.

But I think they were at the point where they were inebriated so much that they couldn't figure out how to calm. And first of all, kudos to them for not driving. I Know many people in situations like that they're so drunk that they're making the horrible, horrible, horrible decision of deciding to drive. so I don't want to bag on them too much.

Uh, because I think they still didn't do anything illegal. they just did something more funny. they didn't even do anything. Immortal They were drunk and they were getting an Uber That's like what you're supposed to do.

but the funniest thing happened. So and a little bit of being there, there was one lift guy in the front who's clearly waiting for people who just were not coming out of the casino and we saw this very drunk guy in this very drunk girl go up to the Uber and he's like uber right? and the guy's like no, no, like we talked like it's not you, uh, like. So obviously it was a mismatch, but they just saw an Uber and assumed it was theirs. But we could tell from the conversation that this couple was so drunk that they like had forgotten that they already approached the driver of the Uber to see if it was their Uber And the guy's like no, he's trying to be respectful.

So now the drunk couple they're they're doing their stumbling. They're stumbling down to every Uber and Lyft in the entire line. Every single one they all get denied. They walk like 10 cars deep and then they come all the way back to their starting location and they're just there.

He looks at his phone a little bit more and as if just this was all based by a Time Passage The guy walked up and he's like just so shit-faced He walks right out to the guy driving the Uber the first Uber that once again he's already spoken to multiple times. He's a you take me home and the guy's like excuse me you take me home now and everyone's like what like as if like all right we've we've done this charade enough I know you're my Uber driver I'm your passenger. You're gonna take me home now. He's like you take me home now and it was like so absolutely wild and he still denied them.

the Uber guy he's like no man I I am actually not taking you home now. you take me home now. Oh man. So great night.

Well kind of weird that the power of the substation went out, but then obviously things did turn around. We got to Atlantic City and it was fun. Jessalyne crushed it. the Uber dude absolutely more hilarious and then uh I decided to go out with my brother-in-law and uh, the gambling is just so dumb folks, it's so dumb we eat.

We put a cap on how much money we were gonna spend and we played blackjack and roulette. Out of all the Blackjack we played I won one hand, he won zero and out of all the roulette play, he won one spin of the roulette wheel and I won zero. Statistically, our performance was mathematically impossible. that's how bad it was.

We just burned through all of our money in like 20 minutes and we kind of looked at each other like what is going on and for whatever reason for that weekend, all the table minimums. There was no table minimum below 25. So we blew through a lot of money and we blew through a lot of it fast. Uh, but it was statistically an anomaly of how bad we were and hilarious thing he's like I always bet on red five.

Uh, for whatever reason he did it in the past because of some I don't know football player that he likes and he bet on it and he lost and it was like essentially his last bet. He's like this is it So instead of doing the red black bet on a roulette wheel, he did the like 35-1 payout. He put a 25 on uh five red it rolls doesn't hit it, we go bust, he's out, he's out, he's out, he's out very next roll. what was it Exactly it was a five red the very next role after his final bust the number he always always always bets on just bet on it Miss very next roll it was a five red.

So after that not only uh Financial but also emotional defeat we just did the only reasonable thing and we just decided to get belligerently drunk in the at the casino bar and that's exactly what we did. and I'm pleased to report that when I went up to the in you the the bartender a real man's man like had gravitas towards him about him you know and he's like what do you want and I was taking so off guard I just looked at the menu and I ordered the very first thing that I saw like they had a special cocktail list and they're like the very first thing was White Russian folks I don't know what a right White Russian is I've never had one in my life I've never heard of it I've heard of the People white Russians I've never heard of the drink White Russian so I ordered it. It came out two girls walk up and the one girl's like what's that and I said I have no idea I got distressed I got scared I got nervous when the bartender came up to me and said what do you want I just repeated the first drink that was on the list because it was the only drink in my mind and I said White Russian and the girl goes oh and I was like what what and she's like that's vodka and milk I was like no no no no no I got like a normal cocktail like if it's on the cocktail list, it's gonna be normal. She's like yeah, that's what a White Russian is it's vodka and milk.

So at this point I basically have a mental breakdown because in my mind I'm picturing vodka and milk and I think to myself at what level of alcoholism do you have to get to that your morning cup of milk is watered down with some like Tito's vodka. um so I was thoroughly confused. Third, I was like no way, no way are you telling me that people on this planet to shove milk and vodka together and she's like yeah, no people do it and then I look at the other girl and I look at my brother-in-law and they're like yeah, I know it's actually pretty good and I'm just in disbelief I'm like no, this is all um like a Truman showest thing, you're all in on it. You're gonna try to get me to drink milk and vodka.

Two things that should not go together. That's that's not reasonable. That's not how same people in this world act and then they're like no, try it Man, it's actually pretty good. And they kind of left out the fact that's not just vodka milk, it's vodka milk and I believe like a coffee liqueur.

Uh, and it's that final ingredient that actually like really turns it around. Uh, and I had it and it turns out that they Rock So as scary as it might sound and I think this is a good life lesson. Sometimes we're judging a book by its cover. This particular book was a milk book shrouded in vodka and I judged it.

and in reality you have to get a couple chapters in and you realize that there's a coffee liqueur in there and it makes the book and in this metaphor particularly the drink awesome. So if you ever have the opportunity, uh, give it a whirl because it is definitely not as disgusting as it initially sounds. So that's what I did with my life that was the lead up to today. but also I guess I should announce on Friday it was a little bit celebratory because all of you who are on the locals Community you realize that I crushed it again.

Well I also think I put it on Twitter and threads but I bagged like another 23k out of those spy calls I got out around like 1 30. so once again me to the move I know some of you did calls and then puts because Friday was insane. what goes up must come down. That was kind of the vibe of Friday that whole must come down thing I didn't know that was happening because for those of you listening to the story you know I was on an aisle that had no power which means I had no service or Wi-Fi so I didn't know what was going on in the market.

so basically as I got there I killed the position I was like cool I that I'll take my money and if you ask me at that moment in time I was like I bet when I get service and I look at the market it kept ripping and I would have made more money and like that's just how my luck goes. but in reality it actually turned out to be like damn near top ticking it. which once again it only happens by luck. you can never really plan to top take something, but apparently the market sold off very very very hard.

So to those of you who played calls in the first half of the day and puts in the second half of the day a massive massive congrats to you. uh when I was getting out I posted all that in locals and we could go over that but become a goonie today and that's kind of where we're at as we're starting today. I Just want to let you know I have no position on right now obviously in my long-term investment account. but in terms of my active options in terms of my active Futures right now I am flat.

we're starting off the day flat I'm waiting to see how things open up because it's going to be a crazy week. It is the start of earnings season I Believe we have like six or seven or eight Fed members speaking. We have other important macro economic events. There's a lot going down this week, so I hope everyone's rested, relaxed I hope you're ready to go I Hope ideally we're sticking to some of our trading plans and whatnot.

Um, talk about Oh here's this. Solar. What is your name? Solar and Mag Solar and Mag. Uh Solar and Mag you were the person who told me that I was wrong and then you got called out by literally hundreds of people on Twitter for being so so wrong.

Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar. Hey Solar ask me how much money I made on Friday for my trade that you said was bad. Wait Solar. Do me a favor and ask me how much money I made on Friday for that trade that you said was bad.

Can you do that for me? Solar Can Can you do that So Solar Solar can you? Can you ask me how much money I made on that trade that you told me I was wrong and it was a bad trade. Solar I made twenty three thousand dollars? So like. that's like 23 followed by three zeros. Which is kind of funny if you think about it like relative to what you said and then what actually happened in a weird way, you could actually say that I was right and you were wrong.

Like that is one potential realistic interpretation of the events is that I was fully right and and you were wrong. So one potential one potential interpretation of those events would be that I knew what was going on and was reading reality properly and you weren't very like Technically it could sum up to that. So just throwing that out there just wanna I'm connecting a through story for some of the viewers who might have missed on. Friday There was a viewer in here who told me I was wrong and then and then I ended up being right.

Which inherently, if you tell someone that they're wrong and then you end up being wrong, you're actually the wrong one. So that's kind of what it's sums up to. Um, 23 000 interpretations. Oh man, Solar, you can cope as hard as you want, but people actually ended up cutting your comments and posting it.

undermine. So as much as you want to tell people, that's not like what happened in here, uh, it's all up there. People were screenshotting your comments. They saved it because they had a sneaky suspicion that's how it was going to go.

So you if you guys you could also re-watch the stream on Friday That seems boring. Uh, but fortunately for us, some of our Vigilant viewers in here decided to keep receipts and just a a public public embarrassment for you. But hey, that's how it goes that that's this world sometimes. All right before I Have to continue with my verbal jousting of Solar in here because I think it's absolutely hilarious.

There are a couple things we have to get over because there's nine minutes till the Bell goes Dingety ding ding ding. And on that note, most importantly, shout out to today's stream sponsor. It's pinned to the top of chat. It's in the description of the video.

My Streetbeat account is crushing it right now. So I'm making the most money off of the Bond strategy because I put the most money into it. But percentage-wise uh, the well. the Congressional one, as you might expect, is crushing it.

The top government contracts also crushing it. Those are all three of those are pre-made trading co-pilot strategies from streetpeat. But then I have two of my own. one is the honey badger and the other one is the value.

Hunter And percentage-wise I think they're up five, six, seven percent. I could check it in a second after the market actually opens. But if you want to use their pre-built AI trading strategies, you can. If you want to build your own, you can.

or if you just want to buy and sell stock, you absolutely can. So when you're signing up, we've got enough sign up here that they decided to create our own landing page which is pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. But just download it. It's free to download and you if you want to use the A AI trading strategies which you don't have to.

but if you want to, you could get a one month trial by using the code mat. So once again, download Street Free to download. Make sure you're entering that code Matt on the very first page. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, feel free to reach out to me.

You can always get me on DMS especially on MySpace a carrier pigeon, whichever is the easiest for you to reach out to me. More than happy to answer some questions about it and obviously shout out to Street Beat for sponsoring today's stream. And on that note, let's take a little look you see at the market. So this is what I was talking about.

Uh, the market ripped and I got out right around 1 30, 1 45 I I was scaling out before that. Once again, it's all in local. So I I just looked for the meat of the move and that was the meat of the move and obviously you could have played it all the way Back to the downside which was crazy and I know some of you in here did play it. That's amazing.

Massive Congrats I missed out on it. but it does set up an interesting situation where we kind of pushed. we had this island top and we sold off and made a recovery. This when we didn't have this bar on Friday I was like oh man, that's a good setup for this Upside Gap fill to 440 190 which is where I started to scale out of my profits.

So we got that upside gapville and as you can see, it was smacked hard when it smacked hard like this and it gives up quite a bit. That makes me feel a bit bearish when you go one way, like quite the distance and then you can't hold it. Generally that means the reversal is probably more likely than that continuation. So today is kind of interesting.

Yeah, uh, on. Friday not yesterday last. Training Day the low was four, Three Eight thirty. We're currently trading at Four Three Thirty Four.

we're trading at the low of Friday So I mean I Want to say well man, if that were to break down, then I'd be setting up a target of 437 and below that we would have other downside targets such as 436. the issue here is like okay, like well, what risk are you going to take on So for me I think an ideal scenario would actually be if we got some sort of pop at the start. Maybe it popped a 439, It popped to 439.50 And then we see some weakness that it starts to come back down. just something that we could more realistically anchor our risk off of.

Like yeah I Suppose you could just whatever, buy calls, or buy puts or do whatever you want right at open, but that's really tough because where are you going to Anchor your risk So as the plans been for a while here, I am just gonna wait those first 5 10 15 minutes, 20 minutes, 30 minutes just to see how things are really opening today. especially because there's major things going on this week. Stock futures are flat ahead of key inflation data this week and the start of Q2 Earnings season earnings season is now going to be underway. So Wednesday we get the CPI report Thursday We get the PPI report Thursday We also get jobless claims Friday We get consumer sentiment Q2 2023 Bank earnings begin, which is typically the start of earning season.

We also get airline in there and then, uh, eight Fed speakers are speaking. So it's a crazy week ahead. So that's what is going to be going down this week. And it's basically just following up some of the other crazy things that we were seeing, such as just the Market's reaction to the Fomc meeting minutes last week, also just some of other Fed member conversations we have things going on internationally with Yellen and particularly China.

We also have macro economic reports coming out of China. There's a lot going down, so I think it's very, very silly to expect things to just not be violent and volatile. My base case right now is a lot of fake out breakouts. A lot of fake out breakdowns basically buy side liquidity, sell side liquidity.

Lots of fake outs, lots of whipsaw. It does set up an environment where we could potentially see more broadening patterns higher highs and lower lows. so you almost get like that microphone shape those suck. They're very difficult to trade in.

They are like a horrible, horrible, horrible environment to trade in because it's just indicative of series serious whips all. But that's going to be my base case. which means yeah, Okay, unless you're feeling really, really good, unless your risk is really, really small, probably a good time to be silvising down unless you like are just feeling that confident about a play. But even with high high confidence, that's obviously not going to be a guarantee.

it works out. This is all a game of just the percentage of risk to reward, the ratio of risk to reward. So be careful and just be prepared for the fact that a lot is going down this week. We're going to be hearing from not only the airline industry, but the financial industry and then on top of that we're going to be hearing from Fed members talking about monetary policy.

So your base case, in my humble opinion, should be Ridiculousness So get all prepped up for that. This is the end of the beginning of the battle against inflation according to economists. Yeah, I Mean obviously we've been trending down like if you look at the CPI report, we were in the nines. Now we're coming in in the 30s, so we're coming down.

But the expectation from the FED according to their summary of economic projections is not to get inflation back to two percent until after 24 as in about a year and a half. So it's not like this is a thing that's going to go away in the next week or month. The the base case is basically six more quarters to get this shit right. This is a slow going, painful process.

so in the larger picture, that's something to prepare for. I'm of the opinion that the second half of this year and we're about to find out in earnings I Think the second half of the year is going to be painful I Think there is going to be a shallow recession I'm not here to call doomsday I Think it's silly when people do that without like truly hardcore, credible evidence or reasoning. But right now. I Think the bar for earnings is simply too high, especially when we still see some issues in the economy when we see the restart of student loan payments.

I Think it's not that insane to be like oh okay, just money's not going to be flowing into these businesses, thus making it harder to hit the pretty lofty targets set in the previous earnings. So I think the high guidance may be going to be problematic, but we're going to know a lot more over the next two to three weeks, which will be setting the tone essentially for the remainder of the year Now after the Market opens. I Want to talk about Powell and the Repo crisis and the FED I Also want to talk about the what's going on in banking? Uh, so just so you know, here is a quick look at what's going on with earnings this week: on: Thursday Delta Pepsi Progressive Check those out! Obviously Delta sets the tone for all the other airlines. If Delta does well, I'm expecting United and Southwest to also do well if they miss.

Obviously, I'm expecting a American United Southwest to all Summit And then on Friday we get JPMorgan United Health Group So that's a big Healthcare play obviously. JP Morgan City Wells Fargo three of the main four Banks that's all going down this week. You guys got to be prepped up for it. so please know that and before the Bell goes slow, start to the second half gallon returns from China, We're going to be talking about that Kings and conflicts on Biden's agenda.

We will be coming back there. Enter earnings. It is the start of earning season. Thread signups swell.

So in five days, it now has over a hundred million. So this number of 70 million. That's actually old news and they're already up to a hundred million users on the Twitter replica. AKA threads.

Zucker's New I guess copy cat like thing which is just wild I Want you to know that for today? Monday July 10th It's a neutral day in terms of seasonality. The bulls have won this day 56 percent of the time. The profit factor is 1.01 and as you can see from the equity curve, it's pretty much neutral. So in terms of seasonality, we're not really running into headwinds.

we're not being supported by Tailwind So I just for today individually. in terms of seasonality, I Don't think it's really going to come much into play. and on that note, dignity, ding ding ding. The casino is open.

Best of luck. Oh, play responsibly If not, have fun. And as we're waiting for this Market to officially get rocking for the day, this is your friendly reminder to absolutely murder The like. Button helps out with the algorithm on YouTube and helps out with the battle Leaderboard on Rumble So don't forget to like And subscribe on both if you want to support your host.

Mr Matt Corbs All right. Let's do this thing folks. Let's do this thing. Let's do this thing.

Let's do this thing Let's do this thing. Uh, what is this one? What is this one? Um, what's everyone's vote on the day? Bullish or bearish? Thumbs up for bullish. Thumbs down for bearish. Where's everyone's vote at? Remember I'm attempting to sit on my hands and do nothing for at least the first 15 minutes.

Ideally, it would be nicer to wait even the first half hour, but sometimes I just get a little bit too excited so we'll see how this all really ends up playing out. But where's everyone's thoughts at for the day? Let's see how good you guys are. Chop First first vote we're hearing is chop might be I mean things have been pretty choppy. Matt You see Rivian hitting 30 today? Is it theoretically possible? Yeah, Rivian's been on an absolute tear lately, showing a lot of strengths, a lot of strength.

I Don't know if I would personally be chasing it just because even though the momentum clearly favors the Bulls the risk is far away. So I just don't know if the risk reward ratio necessarily makes sense in my book, but if you've already been swinging it, a massive congrats to you. Whoa. Side note: when I was on the Avalon aisle or whatever I don't know what it's called, people who are more familiar with New Jersey will be able to correct me on this.

but whatever. the Avalon Isle which I believe is where some serious New Jersey money is. uh, rivians all over the place I think I saw more rivians on that aisle than I did Teslas all over the place all over the place. Um, so weird little side note: I just wanted to share with all of you Weird little side note: I wanted to share with all of you my internet friends folks murder the like button both on Rumble and on YouTube Did we make the Rumble homepage today? Sometimes if we start out strong? oh, we did.

some days like the way: I I don't know I'm trying to figure out their algorithm a little bit more, but I notice on certain days especially Monday Tuesday Wednesday It seems like in the first half of the week if we start out strong, like if the numbers pop, we somehow get featured. So shout out to the Rumble Fam! You guys are currently representing the whole Rumble industry. so let's not embarrass ourselves. Let's not embarrass it that that's the kind of things that happen when people as a community step up and murder the like button.

That's the kind of positivity we can see. All right. where are we at. Microsoft Getting hit Tesla Getting hit is Apple getting hit Apple is getting hit Nvidia getting hit Netflix is going up Netflix showing some strength Netflix showing some strength.

How is Baba doing ever since that ant IPO Well, it's still just below 90 so it's actually kind of holding those gains. Uh, are people people are stoked about what's going on in the world of financials. Energy looking good too I mean oils back to 73.50 a barrel. so energy definitely shown a bit of strength.

Uh, but it makes sense because if you take a look at oil, here's the oil's been popping back up ever since. Wednesday June 28th so uh, kind of at resistance now 74 Rejection Rejection Rejection: so above 74. we have some weird choppy area so I'd just be watching the nice whole dollars if you're trading oils 74, 75, 76 but definitely some bullish momentum In terms of the Spy I think I forgot to go over this. these are the major levels I'm watching obviously I like to Mark out the previous trading days highs and lows and then also two days two training days ago, high and low.

So I'm looking for the break of 440. maybe potentially setting up a run to 442, maybe 440 250 if it were to push there. Totally possible. But my base case is a little bit more bearish today just because of how hard the rejection was on.

Friday In that case, I'd be looking for a breakdown of 438. We'll call it 30, 40, 50 Something like that, The low 438 is pretty much a dollar below where we are now and then. That would in my mind set up a test of 437 and then obviously we have some a couple additional levels below that if we get there. But my main watch for the day is a break above 440 or my first watches of the day I should say is a break above 440 or breakdown below.

We'll call it 438.25 something in that realm. But financials started out strong. Energy started out strong Healthcare Actually pretty decent. Um, utilities pretty decent.

So overall, like some of the major sectors are looking good, some of the individual equities that have been keeping the market up not so good. I mean Apple and Microsoft just took a pretty hard hit out of the gate, but it seems like a lot of the other players I mean the fact that the Spy is holding the fact that the cues are coming back even though Apple and Microsoft aren't tells you that maybe this small grouping of the market that is kind of responsible for most of the gains this year? They're weak. like kind of whatever those Super Seven or whatever people are calling them. Uh, we're seeing some weaknesses in those Apple Microsoft that's down Nvidia down but bouncing a little bit Netflix Strong Salesforce Not doing anything Tesla down.

Uh. Google Rebounding? Yeah, so these the hot names that everyone seems to be watching are kind of underperforming right now relative to what we're seeing across. Uh, the major Market ETFs So watching Calm, cool, collected I haven't done anything, um, quite yet with my positions I Do want to quickly show you this though. This is a very, very quick recap of what happened on July 7th.

So on July 7th and I'm going to dedicate this explanation to Solar in here. Uh, Solar. So I bought 200 at 59, another 50 at 59, another 50 at 53.. So my average was 58.

so I had 300 with an average of 58. Then I sold 100 at 160 and this was just right when we popped above 442. That was an upside Gap though on the spy and then I got out of 200 just because it started to looks weak around like 1 30 and this was basically when the Spy was once again breaking back down below 442. So if you do the math on that, um I mean you could do the math but I made 23k.

so the account was at I think like 111 and now it's at 135. uh, I kind of either want to take out 35 000 now and just bring the account back down to 100K just to. Obviously at some point you have to pay yourself. but then part of me is also well.

hang on. Maybe try to get it up another 15K to 150 and then just take out 50 000. So I just want to throw it out there that it is on my mind to basically quote unquote, pay myself, and take out some of this money. I'll let you know if and when I decide to do that.

Uh, if and when I decide to do that uh uh, what are we doing here Matt boasting about his second good trade of the year. Uh, technically it's my third good trade of the year. so if we're going to keep count, we might as well keep an accurate count. Um yeah, we if you want to throw out facts, we should throw out like real facts, not your not your fake news I wouldn't I wouldn't quote it as my second good trade.

it's technically my third good trade and I want that to be known that should be sung from the heavens? Ah Tesla way I see some comments on Tesla What's going on with Tesla What are your main watches right now? Is anyone watching anything really getting going? I mean the Spy popped but now it's just kind of flat. Um I would be careful of this. So like I said I am looking to go against it. but also in my mind is I remember the fact that the going trend for the market lately has been to have fake out breakdowns and fake out breakouts and what I mean by that is even though I'd be watching this low at 4 38.90 it does seem to have this phenomena of where it breaks down because people are going to have stops there.

Stomps those people out the people who went long here. they get shaken out and then they just rip it back. So even though I have this bias of going against the market I don't know if necessarily my signal to get in would be a snap of 438.90 which looks like it's coming soon now. it might in reality be a perfect play.

It might just vomit right from there and like whatever. Um, but I'm just I'm playing it a little bit more defensively just because I don't need to force anything, especially on this particular Monday Most Mondays are kind of choppy and messed up anyway, but this particular Monday it's the start of earnings season. We have eight Fed members speaking. We have a slew of other macro economic reports I don't need to do anything dumb, especially after like crushing it on Friday So I'm just waiting for that opportunity.

What's up with DraftKings What is up with DraftKings It's been like kind of on a run lately. Yeah. DraftKings turning it back around after getting slaughtered. A nice breakout at 24, some consolidation.

a pop. Now it's up at another level of resistance at 28.. after that, I'd be watching 31. I Just to be completely transparent with you right now I have no positions on DraftKings 28 seems to be really important.

Rejections, support, support, support. Uh, rejection Sell-off 28 seems to be a pretty pivotal level to DraftKings So I would be watching this right now, but once again, it's been on a nice tear. I mean not long ago it was all the way down here at 11. So strong recovery on this calendar year year to date DraftKings is up a hundred and thirty nine percent.

Um, so it's been doing really really well I Obviously wish I got a chunk of it I didn't I have no position I wouldn't be chasing here, but it's definitely showing some momentum without a doubt. Without a doubt. Without a doubt. All right, how are we looking spy still showing some strength I do want to remind you today, specifically at 10 A.M Wholesale inventories and the FED Vice chair bar will be speaking at 11 A.M we have the San Francisco fed president Daley she'll be speaking and then Messer she'll be speaking also at 11.

So we have two fed speakers at 11, the FED Vice chair at 10 and also wholesale inventories at 10 and then later on this afternoon consumer credit is coming out at 3 P.M So basically don't be surprised if at 10 A.M we see wild stuff happening at 11 A.M if we see wild stuff happening or in power hour if we see wild stuff happening. so some clear, ridiculous things going down today. Speaking of ridiculous things I Don't know if this is financial or not, but it it it just seems crazy. This is from Wendy's hey Zuck you should go to space just to make him really mad.

Obviously like this happened on threads. um and obviously people like oh, that's interesting Elon Protects Free Speech Zuck protects brand speech I guess referring to Wendy's but anyway, that's not the major point there. The major point is when Elon actual Elon's account right here 147.5 million followers said Zuck is a cock the world's richest man and current owner and operator of Twitter said that and you might think oh, he stopped there because that's already like pretty crazy and then right here I propose a literal measuring contest. The this is actual dialogue between two of the most powerful richest people in the world.

Zuck is a cuck. I proposed a literal measuring contest. So that is our reality right now. Apparently this is this.

This is what's going down. Is this? It is this? It is this. It is this. it.

All right? What is today? Uh, Today Today Today Today Today Today Today Today today. Okay. Do I want put? Is this an actual breakdown or is this just gonna be a fake out? Okay I need to be patient because it's not even 9 45 I was about to murder puts right here at 9 44. um but I'm gonna be patient.

We've been seeing these liquidity grabs and that was old man. That was bad Matt bad Matt Would have taken that breakdown and would have put 25k on puts expiring tomorrow but this is new reform map. This is the mat that has had a battle the Wildwood aisle with no electricity and no power. So I'm reformed I'm not gonna do it I'm not I'm not gonna do it Uh uh wow Matt Are you coming out of the closet? Well I'm not gay.

but do you have an issue with gay people? Like is that like a thing that keeps you up at night? Are you scared of them? because you might secretly be gay? Like dude, it's 20 23 you're allowed to be gay. but I would get it if I were secretly closeted losing money like you I'd be having a bad morning as well, already down on your calls, publicly embarrassed on Friday Your wife probably hung out with her boyfriend all weekend just for like some summer. Maybe they went on a boat or something like dude, it's all good. It's all good.

You're in a safe place. This is a safe space for you. Man, it's all good. internet.

These keyboard Warriors are some of the funniest people secretly straight? Don't tell anyone your secret savior. We're not going to be sharing that with anyone. Uh I was in Wildwood this weekend. We are stronger for it now.

Derek Why didn't Why didn't you reach out to me? We could have been baking on the beach with no water or ice or AC to gather it we could have. We could have had a a team event, but you didn't reach out. Derek this is on you. The dollar is vomiting.

Probably worthwhile to check that before. I Do anything because the Dollar's actually shown some serious weakness getting Crush But there it is coming up to a support level watching 102 28 on the dollar. Remember, the dollar in the market have an inverse relationship. It's not a perfect one, but commonly inverse.

All right. Is this it? Uh, let me check a couple other things. All right We whoa. so that is not looking so good I am looking at some Market internals.

They actually went bullish 12 30 on Friday but ever since then it's been some hard selling. Uh, let's look at the sunny bands Sunny bands were overextended but coming to back to that mid moving average. So I said four, four three four Okay oh man oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother. Well this is a good reason that you don't have to chase breakdowns or chase breakouts because we've just been seeing these reversals I mean I called this out to you before it happened and if you don't believe me, just go back in the Stream literally to when we were talking at 9, 43, 9 40 when I was like oh, we've been seeing fake out breakdowns a lot.

Wow, Wow. look at this. It's almost as if as if that was right. and there was a fake out breakdown because we broke below the support of 438.90 got as low as 438.63 and then we pop back up to almost the intraday high of 439.30 The chasing breakdowns and chasing breakouts clearly is just not a winning strategy at this moment in time.

Now, obviously, things like that can easily change in the future. Evidently, they can. but just right now on the intraday basis. Major equities.

Major ETFs We're seeing a lot of fake out breakdowns. A lot of fake out breakouts, so just be careful with that. Patience seems to be paying. Um, it definitely seems to be paying I Just made 65 on my puts.

You should stream because you just seem like such an awesome person and such an awesome Trader Solar I Mean if you're so so good, you should stream and show the world how awesome you are. or maybe you won't because you can't. It's also maybe another explanation of reality, but yeah, no, we totally believe you that you're super good. We uh, we, we all.

don't worry, we all believe you. You do not have to convince us for a second. we're all like, yeah, no, that guy's probably telling the truth. So silly dude, this guy's endless content I Don't know.

It's like getting to the point where like do I have to send him a part of my like ad Revenue or like, what do I do like? It's starting to get to be the point where like I feel like his uh, like probably legally entitled to almost all of my ad Revenue uh I'd Watch Solar measure up on a stream should we do similar solar should we do uh, something similar to musk and Zuckerberg do you want to do a measuring contest? We should. We could stream that and we could put it on my only fans and my Myspace if if you want to do that, we could do it, get a couple. the official measurement competition sentiment: Texas Roadhouse gift card and call it even. Is it flooding in New York uh it wasn't even raining when I walked into the studio today I It actually kind of looked nice out.

All right, is this the start of the end? What time is it? Ah, do I really want to trade before 10? It's starting to look weak. The cues are vomiting Microsoft and Apple dude I want this so bad? there it goes. but I can't I can't do it man I gotta wait I gotta wait I gotta wait I need to be I can't do it I can't I gotta be disciplined I gotta have monk like discipline I will not trade too early I will be patient El Tigre How did this body calls play out? Also, let's get some today. Thoughts on all the Airbnb news puts.

um, the Spy calls played out really really well. I was in at 58 cents I sold a third of them at a dollar sixty and then I sold the other two-thirds of them at a dollar I believe either 20 or 25. Um so I ended up bagging a huge percentage uh, but also quite a bit of money. So good percentage gain and also good money gain.

Um, the percentage gain I mean obviously was like I don't know 150 or 175 something like that I made 23k. So I appreciate you asking Lenny I hope you crush it yourself in terms of Airbnb a B and B abmb Airbnb So I've been seeing all that negative news that everyone has been seeing about how just like Airbnb their revenues are dropping like just huge percentage sell like uh, fallouts. but I'm not really seeing that in the chart which is like that's I guess a mismatch in my head. So I'm hearing all the news that all of you are hearing that's definitely negative.

but then yet, Airbnb's stock price is actually bounced from 104 up to 132 and it's actually looking pretty strong. So because of that mismatch like my bias is to the downside. but the price action is actually bullish. So as I'm just like I would wait for an actual Market structure shift to be like okay, we're putting in lower highs, we're putting in lower lows.

Um, so it's going to take some patience like I I know exactly where you're coming from. To me logically puts do make sense. it's just it doesn't seem like it's a pro the appropriate time right now. Um so I'm waiting.

Wait and wait and waiting. But a phenomenal question. I've been also watching Netflix uh right here. double top on the high, but it does have a higher low.

uh I Kind of want to know if Netflix is gonna wake up again and start pushing 445 450 so Netflix is definitely on my watch list for a bullish continuation. Tesla um actually we called this out I currently don't have the position I was a little bit too early on it, but I'm look looking for this downside Gap filled to 264.45 and it looks like Tesla's making a I mean I was in early on it I got in on Thursday the 6th and then I cut it because remember I was making other stupid trades. uh but honestly, the risk reward the way this one turned out like not a bad deal whatsoever. not a bad deal whatsoever.

So if you play that on Tesla I try to play this breakdown at 275 and I was making other bad trades that day. So I decided to get out and then At first I felt like it was smart because we ended up gapping up. but obviously I wish I held it because this thing is I mean it's down 1.8 percent today. Um, so definitely looking for the downside.

gavilion Tesla to 264.45 Nvidia honestly is starting to look a little bit heavy to me I know that's kind of crazy to say uh Nvidia I think it's the statistically accurate play to bet against Tesla on the breakdown of 413.50 but I'm saying that very hesitantly because Nvidia has been like kicking my teeth in. So I'm saying that with extreme amounts of caution to the point that I don't even know if I'm gonna play it. but I'm very much looking for NVIDIA to show continued weakness out of this consolidation on the breakdown of 4 13.50 So definitely watching that as well. All right, spy.

look at that right when I was gonna another brutal liquidity grab right here at 438.63 they bounce right out of it. Chasing these breakdowns as much as like in real time, it seems like it's the right move. It's just not the right move. It's simply not the right move.

Um, maybe the way price action like manages itself will be changing in the future. I Mean, it could be changing as early as today. Uh, but what we've been seeing just recent history tells us that chasing these right here at like 9 51 or chasing this at 9 43. It's just not the smart play because it seems as if you just have a bit of patience and wait.

there's bounces out of it where you could just get better fills even if you still want to play it in that direction. In terms of today though, I see Apple vomiting I see Microsoft vomiting we should probably throw up in video I'm watching that 413 level Tesla I Kind of already missed it. Um, unfortunately, definitely missed it. but looking for 264? whatever that was for that? Downside: Gap Film Can you explain where the liquidity grab is? So it seems? Yes, the way it's most commonly used is another way of just saying a fake outbreak out a fake out breakdown.

So right here let's examine this 951 bar. So before this at 9 44, we had a low of four, three, eight, six, three and then yet right here we go below it just briefly and then bounce right out of it. So this I guess when we went from 438 63 a fake out breakdown, we went down to 438.58 So even though it was only by five cents, there's going to be people who have stops at that level as in they get stopped out. So you could say that it was like a sell side liquidity grab because people were forced to sell even though they bounced it right back out.

and if those people were like if they bought it off that bounce, they would actually now be green. So a sell side liquidity to grab a fake out breakdown and then a buy side liquidity to grab would be another way to say a fake out breakout Because people start to get going shorts have their stop there. it breaks out but then it gets smashed right away. So it it does change.

I Mean and what I mean it changes just like the common verbiage right now. instead of saying fake out, break out fake Out Breakdown: I I see it more on Twitter and Reddit that a lot of people are starting to say liquidity grams like they basically are erroneously stomping people out. To the upside. and the downside, it's a fake out.

It's another way to say a fake out. Uh, does that make sense? Uh oh, someone just got deleted in here. Someone for spamming and asking about Brokers Well, you shouldn't do that because you're going to instantly get absolutely murked by my producer. Chaos I Wouldn't test them.

He didn't have the best weekend. his back's in pain, he's been having spasms so he's a little bit edgy so that basically means you're gonna get banned if you piss him off. And when he gets like that I don't want to get in his way. so I honestly wouldn't even be able to protect you today from him if he just decides to Merc your account, he's going to mark your account.

He's he'll get pissed Matt Can I get your thoughts about Neo bought calls on Friday that expires 7 21 at 9 50. I'm up. but I think it gets to 10 20. so why not just use a trailing stop loss I mean I I can't sit here and be like oh yeah, that's like 100 Totally gonna happen.

Like if if you're riding the momentum. Great. Ride it. Ride it.

ride. It looks strong to me. it popped up, came down, made a higher low showing some strength. You're saying 10 20.

okay I'd be even watching I would just keep writing it up. Yeah, you could watch 10 20. you could watch 10 40. you could watch.

it's just I would ride the momentum like my whole concept is the meat of the move. riding momentum. As long as we're making those higher highs, higher lows, stick with the trend I'd be trying to ride the trend so can it hit? Yeah, but it's by no means a guarantee by by any means. so I would just keep almost whether it's a mental or an actual trailing stop loss I would just keep riding up with it and if things start to turn Okay lock in whatever profits you're at at that time and like move on to the next play.

Um, I wouldn't be so per in that one like I Kind of like this concept of using exact levels to take my money when I'm doing like an upside Gap fill a downside gaffle. but if I'm just doing a trend following play when you said 10 20 my answer to that very specifically is oh I have no idea I I Just don't know it. the trend might stop before then or the trend could greatly exceed it I just don't know. And because I don't know that I wouldn't be calling out a specific level.

maybe based on your position you want to be scaling in and scaling out. and maybe you find like, key levels where you're like, oh, I'm in a scale out of X percent of my position and I'm a fan of that pyramiding in pyramiding out I'm a fan of it. You could call it scaling in scaling out, whatever. But overall, the concept of trend following is to just follow the trend as long as it's intact and I like that better than exact price levels just because what if the trend stops right before or what if it exceeds it greatly.

So in both scenarios, you're missing out on money. Foreign though. Dude, everyone's coming up with good questions today. Um, and this is why I try to avoid these liquidity grabs because they're absolutely brutal and they rip your face off.

Do you think they're going to do one on the other side? now? That'd be kind of devious, but let's see if it happens. So uh, liquidity, grab down here. Without a doubt, screwing over all these people. They make you think it's gonna break down and it just doesn't and then they bounce it out and they tag a new intraday high and so this is a sell side liquidity to grab, knocking people out who thought it was going to break down and it got some shorts in there and now I wonder if they're gonna just repeat the process to the top side now.

Now remember with this we just got reports at 10 A.M actually CNBC Talking about it, let's see one of the highest on the street. The Firm Citing Servicenows expanding platform growing Pipeline and large profits, you have those numbers we're also watching: Nvidia it's up more than 180 percent since January as more looks like those reports might be popping it. but let's see if it gets run like I said, it could be a buy side liquidity per share and then a number of firms on the street initiating restaurant chain Kava. Uh, U.S Wholesale inventories month over month may actually zero percent versus negative 0.1 previous and the estimate was negative Point: One percent.

Shout out to Profit for always having that info. Much appreciated. Let's get some wholesale trade numbers from: Rick Santali Rick Rick Rick Rick Rick's in chat. Well, it moves from minus 110 to unchanged, so that is a bit of an improvement from its mid-month read.

But here's something interesting on inventories: We haven't had a positive number since November of last year we've had a couple of unchanged definitely and I think that's important to mention. We all know that inventories, Well, we've been depleting inventories and many are suspecting that this is going to be an area of growth adding to GDP At some point down the road on trade sales down two tenths of one percent, Down two tenths of one percent, we are expecting an up number, so that's also a bit of a disappointment. Interest rates? Well, other than the 30-year bond, which is basically unchanged to a slightly higher yield, all maturity's yields are lower. The two years still fail to close above its cycle high yield close which was in March at a yield of 5.07 percent and rates have dropped rather dramatically in the last 30 minutes.

Back to you guys. Rick Santelli Rick Thank you very much. Carl As you mentioned, busy week of data and the Highlight is going to be Wednesday's CPI report the big inflation number for Consumer prices and then we'll get PPI on Thursday It's important because inflation has been sort of the wild card and the stubborn factor which is leading the FED to continue to speak caucishly. Obviously big big move in the markets last week off the back of stronger data and even though jobs was amiss on Friday that wage growth surprised on the hot side and now we're trying to game out what Wednesday is going to look like.

This is just a track position for the numbers. We want to see that we want to see a three number in front of that and that's what the market expects, but a lot of it is because of the base effects. It was such a big number in June of last year. The month over month is important.

We're looking for 0.3 percent increase from the month of May that would Mark 440 should get really interesting. It's going to keep the fed from hiking in July The question is what happens with September That's going to be the that's what we're going to figure out. and there are a lot of reasons to think this number could be soft because it's been inflated recently by used car prices two months in a row that should start to come down. Shelter we know has a lagged effect.

Airfares should start to cool off a little bit, so the best hope for for stocks that are still, you know, strong with this. Better than expectations. Biggest drops we've seen since uh, Kovid began and um, interesting try very. And Adam Parker's got some interesting charts this morning on the the split between CPI and PPI which by the way is now negative year on year.

that's only the split to that degrees only happened a few times in the last quarter. Century So we'll see whether or not it catches up on the consumers and you would think that PPI would lead because that's wholesale what goes into the pipeline. Market Internals are definitely leaning a bit more bullish than they are bearing. just want to throw that out there for the Spy Market internals for the Spy Definitely leaning as of right now 1005 in the morning leaning a little bit more bullish than they are bearish.

Recovery has been weak. Look at that people. I haven't done anything I've just asked growing calls for stimulus in that economy. We spent some time discussing it in the last hour.

Sarah It's just fascinating. Is the dollar still vomiting? Metrics attitude? The dollar is still fine Dollar Breakdowns: Treasury Secretary just returning from China Also big breakdown on the dollar. geez of where we are in the job market just curious to see a dollar vomit. curious to get your take.

Overall, and any comments that Yellen may have made whether in China or about the U.S it sort of caught your attention I Mean for me, it was really about the delicate dance she's doing between on one hand the military concerns and the and the security concerns we have with China and on the other trying to make sure economic ties are sound. She did not use the word decouple. She used the word diversify when it came to supply chains, which is kind of a new friendlier word I Don't know. A lot of people think you can't separate the two, right? Because they announced the the rare earth metals are going to be are now their rules on that and retaliation.

A lot of people think for what we did with the semiconductors, we're expecting the Bite Administration to do even more restrictions on Chinese investment. so can you have a friendly economic relationship? It's good that we see a thaw, but there was no new policies announced and I think it's uh, it's ch it's challenging I think the investors. According to the research notes I'm reading this morning are encouraged to see her there. High profile visit, 10 hours of meetings.

That's good they're talking I'm sure CEOs who do business in China are happy too. but the bigger picture? Not sure it means anything necessarily for that relationship. and she didn't really make any headlines on the Chinese economy side of things. No, she did not.

the weakness. and again, to your point, there was no major groundbreaking of any kind other than simply the communication itself which is seen as generally a positive between the world's two largest economy. and she did not meet with Xi Jinping. All right, we get the point.

We get the point. We get the point. We get the point. Median monthly house payment by state Hawaii is almost 5K California's 4.6 Massachusetts is 3.8 Jeez.

New York's only down to three, but this is for a house payment I wonder if like the amount of Apartments the dominance of apartments in New York if that like messes up the math of it. Interesting entering the office for a full work week. One of the best athletes of our time. One of the absolute best athletes of our time.

Did you guys see the video of this lady who's like that man is not real and she left the plane? Carl Icahn IEP Confirms amendments to previous loan packs with lenders provides for principal payment of 500 million before September 1st quarterly principal repayments of 87.5 million beginning September 2024 and final payment of 2.5 billion at the end of the term. Whoa. Well, I Guess the banks are getting a little bit uncomfortable with icon get a little bit uncomfortable there. Interesting, a little bit uncomfortable Banks Not wanting to take on that risk I Don't know.

maybe Nate over at Hindenburg Research had a point. What's this? Uh, Cong