Foreign. Thank you Thank you Foreign Thank you Oh brother Good morning, good morning, good morning. Welcome back to the Matt core show where I'm Matt Coors and you're the show. This is what we're talking about for today: Thursday July 6 or as I like to put it, the day, we're going as hard as Hunter Biden If you don't know what that means, you might want to check out the thumbnail over on Rumble if you happen to be watching elsewhere.

If you are watching elsewhere, you're probably just thinking about how we are currently battling the Bulls And if you've looked at the pre-market action, the market is going down Down, Down, Down Down. and as many of you know because you're in The Goonies Community backwards.locals.com it's in the description of the video. Make sure you check it out. I Posted my position and you know that I was degenerately betting against the market as in I was betting on the market coming down the Spy The ETF tracking the overall market closed out the day at 44313.

As of now, in pre-market trading, it's at 43979 getting as low as 4392 2 8 And there's a couple reasons for this: We have to talk about the Fed, the Fomc meeting minutes. What's going on with ADP What's going on with initial jobless claims? What's going on with the unemployment report tomorrow? What's going on with BlackRock What's going on with Crypto? There's a lot to talk about, but it all summarizes to the fact that the Market's going down Down Down takes a little bit of a break down down downtown takes a little bit of break down down down and what does that add up to That adds up to my degenerate puts going Sky High in value. So when the market closed yesterday, I had 300 spy puts July 10th was the expiration date, The strike price was 440. the average price was 85 cents.

It closed out the day at 74 cents, which means I was down by about 13 13.5 if you want to be specific. also known as 3.5 K So when the market closed, I was down 3.5 Stacks bills I guess whatever you want to call them. but when the Market opens, I should roughly be up about 30 of those bad boys. Which means for me, between Friday where I think I made somewhere between 55 and 60k and then today just two beautiful back-to-back trades.

Now I don't want to get too egotistical because I honestly think that Karma could really destroy me here. So I don't want to count this one officially as a back-to-back trade quite yet just because it's not over I didn't lock it in it. It's the one thing to be up on paper. it's another thing to actually be locked in.

So I don't want to put any bad vibes out there at all. So we're gonna see how the Market opens if it does. Knowing me, this is what happened. if you've been watching me for any amount of time when I carry a big put position a big bearish position.

from one day to the next, it seems as if I get lucky in the pre-market action and then the entire normal trading day. it just goes up and up and up, destroying my position. So I'm being very cognizant about that because it's just happened to me so many times lately and usually I had the rule of trying to not trade in the first 15 20, 30 minutes of the day. But if things are just ripping against me, I guess like a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush or whatever the hell the saying is.

So oh wait, my guy's not on. Come on guys, you know my astronaut needs to be on. Why? No no one thought to tell me about that. None of you.

None of you thought to tell me that the moon wasn't on. You thought we could go through a full trading date without the Moon being on. What's wrong with you people? What is wrong with you people? So anyway, that's what we're going to be talking about on the Matt core show today. We're going to be seeing how I can manage my fully degenerate, messed up position.

Uh, before we get to all of that though, if you guys haven't heard about it, the new competitor to Twitter is out. This is by Facebook AKA Meta and I think it's actually under Instagram, but it's called Threads. Threads is being branded as the Twitter Killer. It's Mark Zuckerberg's Twitter So basically one billionaire has Twitter a different billionaire has threads and each billionaire I guess gets their own social media.

but anyway, it's just like Twitter It just came out yesterday. If you want to join this platform, make sure you follow me. It's pinned to the top of chat. it's in the description of the video.

Uh, it's just you go to Threads.net slash at Matt underscore Course Once again pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. Follow me on threads. I'll be following you people back. We just started it.

We could be one of the first trading communities on the platform. Uh, it's pretty raw. it just started. They definitely have a few Kinks to work out.

Um, and but here I am making some good jokes. How long until this place has thread space calls? Also will they be called sweatshops? I Thought that was pretty funny I thought it was pretty funny. It got the guy got nine good laughs I'm gonna say that Lakes are equivalent to laughs. So I'll be working on more of my comedic content over here.

But check it out Threads.net it's Matt Underscore course pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. Make sure you guys are signing up on that note. Here's a little look you see at the market vomiting. uh you could honestly probably see it a little bit better in the Es.

You could probably see it a little bit better in the NQ. Let me switch this over to the Futures Market. It's just a pure vomit. Like it bounced a little bit.

yesterday. this was the close right here around 4 P.M and it just the overnight session. not so hot. popped at the beginning in the London session, then vomited and made a little bit of a recovery until around 7 45.

Then we got the ADP numbers. Then we got the initial jobless claims number and it's just a continuation in the vomit. In all reality, we're at 4446 right now in the S P 500 Futures Contract I Do have a big support at 4440 right here so we're pretty close to it. Might bounce off of it if that doesn't hold.

I'm basically watching 4 400, maybe 4410 but like really close to 4400 is what I'm personally targeting and you see the same thing in the NASDAQ just a vomit Fest The market is getting hard, hit hard and it's it's twofold. It's because of the update from the Fomc meeting minutes which came out at 2PM. Yesterday we watched it and even during it I was expressing my confusion of why the market popped at first and just didn't completely vomit. It tried to vomit.

Then it bounced. Uh I Just to give you a quick replay of yesterday, let me bring up the 15 minute at: 2PM We got the Fomc meeting minutes and I was thoroughly thoroughly thoroughly confused at the Market's reaction. So it was right here. Uh, 14 o'clock which is also known as two if you believe in the linear nature of time.

We popped that first didn't make sense to me. It didn't make sense to me because of what was in those meeting minutes. But Matt what was in those meeting minutes I have a job I have a life I Have to go to school I have to take care of a kid I Don't have time to watch you every single day I Fear not I understand that we all have a life I'll explain to you in the Fomc meeting minutes out of the 18, this many 18 voting Fomc members, 16 of them. and if you're into fractions, that's eight over nine, that's 88.888 repeating.

percent of them said, hey, we're getting at least one more rate hike 16 out of the 18 said, that's what we see going on. Two of them were like, eh, we don't want to do that and then 12 of them. We're looking at the potential of two rate hikes. For you mathematicians out there, that's two-thirds That's the exact same percentage of Jonas Brothers that don't have diabetes the exact same.

So I know sometimes you guys do prefer when I give you more music based mathematical comparisons but the same amount of Jonas Brothers Who do not have diabetes is the exact same percentage of Fed members who think we could be getting two more rate hikes and remember that's bad. Well, diabetes is bad. But also the other thing, it's because they're so aggressive. They're fighting inflation.

To fight inflation, you have to slow the economy down. So you put downward pressure on the economy. When you're putting downward pressure on the economy. a lot of times, it has the adverse effect of bringing the stock market down just because less people have things such as disposable income, that thing that you need to keep the economy going.

So they're just saying Hey Brother and this is from the Fed. This is like what Pal says they're saying Hey Brother Things are a little hot right now, we we just need to chill. We need things to slow down a little bit and that's basically what was confirmed. So remember, even though we got the Fomc meeting minutes yesterday, they were the meeting minutes for the June meeting and basically we saw that people weren't the most stoked about taking a breather.

They were accepting of it, quote unquote, accepting of it. It was a unanimous decision, but there were a couple voices who were like maybe we should do another 25 bips this time around. But anyway, in June, they decided not to. But it does very much increase the chances of a 25 Bips rate hike in July which will be on Wednesday July 26 is when we find out.

So this pop made no sense. Then this drop made sense. I was like yeah, no that the FED is hawkish. you don't fight the FED There's a reason we have that saying.

why would we fight the FED Like this concept of the market attempting to call their Bluff is a silly one because they they're not the bluffing type. They kind of just always have pocket aces. and then the market started to pop. We saw this absolutely insane V-shape recovery and through throughout all this I had those 300 puts and the reason I didn't get out is twofold.

One, my risk was 444. You can see as high as we got was like four, four, three, seven seven. so we didn't really get to my risk. I Also want to point out that there was no volume.

This pop was not generically confirmed by the market. It was confirmed by a low amount of bulls and bears. low low volume this entire pop when we sold off. All right, a little bit of a higher volume.

Also, when we sold off into the clothes, a little bit of a higher volume, but this pop right here this like huge. I Guess it's from 225 to about 310. This clear v-shaped recovery, not much volume supported it. so I figured okay, it's a neutral day I Wouldn't consider yesterday to be bullish or bearish I Think people were apparently still hungover from setting off all their fireworks, weren't back at the office, weren't actively training.

It was a very, very low volume day in general, which you can obviously see on the daily chart if we fast forward to the right day. here. you can see how low volume it is relative to recent history. Like we, it was as low as May I guess 8th and 9th.

whatever was going on there. Not much of a mover, just a very very low volume day across the board. So it's just whatever the movement was I Just didn't think it was really confirmed by the market. If it was bullish bearish, it's still in my mind, added up to being neutral then.

I Kind of got lucky this morning sock Futures Fall Thursday as Traders assess Fed Rate Outlook So yes, they were assessing the Fed rate Outlook But the reason it really started to sell off past 8 AM this morning is because of this Dow Futures fall more than 200 points as strong jobs, data points to more fed tightening. Remember, we are like that little hit like what's what's her powers that little telepathic lady 11. We live in the upside down. Good economic news is bad for the stock market because the stronger the economy is, that potentially means what the FED is doing is not working and they might have to be more aggressive.

It So whenever we see economic strength signals like we got this morning, it does increase the chances of the FED having to be more aggressive in the rate hike cycle. And remember when the FED increases its Fed rate. That ends up setting kind of the tone for what's going on in the world of mortgages. What's going on in the world? uh, some student loan repayments? What's going on? uh in interest rates? Like there's just a lot that the FED fund rate ends up setting the tone for.

So just to connect it a little bit more to like your real life. So anyway, recap of yesterday: Fed sees more rate hikes ahead, but at a solar Pace meeting minute show we kind of knew that and I think a lot of economists are coming out and a lot of like pundits and the speaking heads on TV end up talking about this concept of like oh like we think they're hawkish but it always just comes in a bit more hawkish. and for whatever reason the Market's been ripping from March till now and I've been saying this for weeks and weeks and weeks and I will say it again. I Truly do not think that this rally will go I Think a lot of novice Traders and investors are thinking that this is the start of an overall bull market and I just don't see it.

I Think that the market, especially getting into the later half of this year is going to have serious problems I See major companies not being able to hit their earning guidance goals that they set in previous quarters when things seemed a little bit better when we had this anticipation that the FED would stop sooner than they clearly are. I Mean, at one point in time people were thinking we were going to get rate Cuts in 2023. at the end of 2022, there are people who are literally calling out for rate Cuts in 2023, these people are paid for that job. They have the fan fancy pedigree on their wall and they were that wrong.

Understand right now that the fight we are in it is an arduous ordeal. It's not going to be done overnight and I think really when it comes to these companies earnings in the second like basically Q3 and Q4 of this year, we're going to start to see a lot of major companies missing their goals because I think the FED is it takes time. There's a big lag effect, but especially when you add in some things such as student loan repayments which are going to be starting in October You're just gonna have less money in the economy. It's honestly as simple as that.

And it's not just here in the US Hong Kong Stocks tumble three percent Asian Markets dip after fed minutes point to more rate hikes. Then comes this morning mortgage demand drops the lowest level in a month as interest rates rise, they're Rising because the FED fund rate is going to keep going up and then things got even more crazy around 8 15. private sector companies added 497 000 jobs in June more than double expectations they were estimating 220. We came in at 497.

When you're adding more jobs, that is suggesting a stronger economy. and remember right now we're in the upside down. We're a strong economy. Not so good for the stock market because the market is assuming that's going to force the FED to be even more aggressive, more hawkish.

Janet Yellen arrives in Beijing on mission to find common ground for U.S and China This is the start of a three-day trip. I Just want to put it on your radar because I'm assuming we are like just there's going to be random news updates for it. So this will obviously be important, especially in the world of semiconductors. So if you're watching the likes of Nvidia AMD Intel Micron Uh, Taiwan Semiconductor Broadcom because you're going to want to be paying attention to how this does or doesn't go China says it.

Told the US and Europe about export controls in advance. China's minister of Commerce said Thursday The country told the US and Europe about its week weeks exports ban in advance. China did so through export control dialogue channels. She said the ministry had yet to receive any applications for export licenses.

This is for um, a Partic. There was two types of metals I believe gallium and germanium. China produces most of the world's gallium and germanium, which are not found naturally, but produced by refining other metals. Obviously, they're important in the development of something that the U.S must really want.

So obviously this is the reason I bring it up is it just is a little bit suggestive of the heightened tensions between China and the US and really, even China and kind of like Western Europe The big news of last night. If you weren't paying attention to the market, but we're paying attention to the world of social media related to Mark Zuckerberg and meta and Facebook and Instagram and what they're now calling the Twitter killer Instagram Unveils Threads app a threat to Musk's Twitter So it turns out that the fight between Musk and Zuckerberg isn't just a physical one, which I really hope that that cage match happens. it's this whole concept of billions of billions of dollars in social media and the growth rate in a couple hours of like thread being a thing. the threads app being a thing I think it took a couple hours.

they got five million users in four hours or something like that here. I have the article for you, but it truly is nuts. Of course I made an account so hey, if you want follow me. um, it's pinned to the top of chat.

it's in the description of the video threads.net slash at Matt Underscore course. this is me. I'm verified Mac Core's Matt underscore course. Follow me.

Follow me. Follow me. Follow me. Follow me.

Follow me. Follow me. Follow me. Follow me.

uh I'm on threads I Think it could be fun I'm honestly like Twitter is good Twitter has a lot of usability that I Like it's the best place for breaking news and Threads has a long way to go. I don't think they have hashtags? um, the like. There's no way to toggle between only seeing the threads from people you care about versus random ones that they're promoting. but it's also literally not even day one.

We're not even 24 hours into this, so I'm gonna give them a couple months here to kind of like really figure it out. But for me, even though I like a lot of aspects about Twitter it's also a cesspool. And then there's also issues like this guy Mario Fall Who? maybe you guys didn't find out about it. but apparently he's only the biggest Twitter space person because he bought it the whole account like he just had like a bunch of fake ones.

So um, hopefully that guy doesn't come on over to Threads. but he's being accused and once again I Don't know if it's true or not, but a lot of the evidence that people were posting are suggestive of some pretty bad things. So and like he's only there now because Elon started to promote him in his account like doubled overnight and just in general Twitter is a lot of like has a lot of Cesspool features so it has bad things going on. it has good things going on and I hope I don't know if it's gonna happen but I hope that on threads, just most of those good things survive and some of the bad things stay over on Twitter But who knows, you never know.

This thing might be the hottest app five years, ten years from now. it might be the biggest and the best thing or it might fail and they might close it up the way they like the way Vine was actually closed by Twitter You don't know. but for me, I'm always willing to try out a new piece of social media. and here's what you need to know about it in terms of its competition with Twitter.

So Threads, it launches this: Thursday How much can it capitalize over some of the recent turbulence over Twitter Like it took 16 17 years for for Twitter to get to the scale that it has today, which is, you know, in the order of 250 I think million users threads is not going to be doing that over a compressed time frame. Nonetheless, Facebook has often meta have a far better oiled advertising machine than Twitter has, so there is if they get it right, the potential for quite a lot of upside. What an interesting thing to look at though. If you think actually about the closest rival to Twitter, it's probably LinkedIn you know, sort of professional audience often.

Um, you know I don't think we're on the same Twitter journalists and politicians Twitter but sort of adjacent in in LinkedIn They haven't actually benefited massively yet, at least from all the issues at Twitter the revenues up 200 million year on year in the most recent quarter. Maybe there's a bit of a lag as as some of the advertisers change Tack and look towards them, but it may be quite a good metric for the the sort of space being vacated by Twitter and at the very least, the time scale required to fill it. I mean having another social media platform launcher made a lot of other ones. launching seems a bit daunting for advertisers to try to get their grip on where they should be, where they should be, more where they should be lost.

I Know we don't know the pitch for advertisers, but what do you figure it would be from threads from Meta to say okay, we know we're new, but come advertise with us. Well, it's a lot easier for them than it was in all the advertisers, right? the kind the the Rival being ginned up by um, uh, you know former Twitter Executives what the hell is Blue Sky Mata has the existing relationships with advertisers so they can go along and they say like if you want to get all the advertisers from Instagram or Instagram if you want to get a different demographic I won't identify, you can use Facebook Uh Trend news agenda setting audience then we hope to have threads. It's easier for them to to build that up and also you can just pump the same ads through these different channels. If you're selling on the base of the people you reach rather than the platform you use, then you know there's nothing.

There might be nothing stopping them pumping it through that, So that is, you know clearly an opportunity for them. They have far better, better in advertising. You're talking about quite a lot about probabilistic and deterministic advertising. So probabilistic is we think they vaguely fit this demographic Deterministic is we know exactly who is on the end of this device, who is watching this piece of content.

Deterministic is the stuff that people want, because then they can Target their ads with far greater accuracy even with some of the anonymity settings that are now in play because of things like Gdpr Facebook Instagram Meta have that very good deterministic data. Um, and that is something that's what it generally doesn't have. One of the reasons that Twitter actually is interested introducing the verification blue ticks. Sure, partly it's a revenue play which actually helps them Target better ads So that's the big release.

It's also part of the reason I'm not just talking about it to talk about it. It's part of the reason why men are ripped so much yesterday. actually one of the best performing socks of the day by just like what we voted to its market cap, it's actually up even more. It gained 2.9 yesterday, up an additional 0.7 this morning trading at 296..

look at the rip Met has been on. Look at this Insanity of meno let me switch over to the weekly metal was as high as 385 vomited from 385 down to 88. Folks appreciate how far of a drop that was that dropped 77 Zuckerberg During that time period, it was the largest wealth loss by an individual of all time ever. All time ever.

This 77 drop cost Zuckerberg on paper, billions and billion I think it was in the tune of like 80 billion dollars. maybe 90 billion dollars. But anyway, ever since they stopped throwing so much money into VR and started doing things such as this, we are now as high as it's a recovery of 224. So obviously we're not at the all-time high, but we're not far off from it.

From the all-time high to the high that we hit yesterday down 22, Far better than being down that 80 so making a strong recovery. Obviously people are really liking it. If you look across the S P 500 today. this is one of the few that's actually green this morning and it all relates to the success of threads Meta launches Instagram threads and a direct challenge to Twitter Threads.

As a text-based messaging app that looks very similar to Twitter People will be able to use their Instagram usernames on threads and follow the same accounts on threads they do on Meta's photo sharing app. The release of Threads is noteworthy considering that Twitter has suffered a wave of mishaps under the ownership of Tesla CEO Elon Musk leaving the popular social messaging app vulnerable to competing apps. I think that's what we're seeing right now? Uh, actually, I did want to. How do I find Zuckerberg on this? I want to find the exact um I don't know how to like? Is there not even a search on this? Whoa.

Whoa. Okay, that's cool. that's cool. Um, is it just Zuck it is okay Zuck He did tweet how many signups they got and the number was freaking astounding.

If this loads, they were having obviously some tech issues on day one launch. All right. if this ever loads, if this ever loads, if this ever loads, if this ever loads, if this ever loads, we'll have to come back to that. But I believe they got 5 million sign ups in the first few hours which is absolutely insane.

All right. In terms of today, we got the ADP Employment Number at 8 15 came in higher than expected at 9 45. We're gonna get the PMI Services number at 10 A.M We are also getting the Ism services so we do have some reports 15 minutes into the trading day and 30 minutes into the trading day and then tomorrow an hour before the Market opens, we get the unemployment number right here. U.S Unemployment rate We're looking at 3.6 This comes out the first Friday of every single month and it's gonna have a big impact on the market, so pay attention to that in terms of the seasonality.

For today, this is seasonally a bullish day. Thursday July 6th The Bulls have won this day historically over the past 25 years. 56 percent of the time. A little bit better than flipping a coin.

The Profit Factor is 1.83 as in every dollar put on the table has returned a dollar 83. On average the bias is bullish at first a little bearish, then kind of neutral and over the past six years pushing to the upside. I Do want to remind you of my core position right now. Uh I have a lot of these I have 300 spy puts.

The strike is for 440, the expiration is July 10th. My average cost for the premium is 85 cents. My risk was the Spy breaking and holding 444 that never came. We got really close about 50 25 cents away and this was posted 19 hours ago.

The update because I did three different average Downs Um, this was posted at 11 30. this is why you should be on Goonies Matkors.locals.com This is where the Goonie Community is once again in the description the video Macquares.locals.com If you want the seasonality, you get it for free. If you want my trades and other people's trades and just people who are talking about this, it's ten dollars a month. Hundred dollars for a year.

You could try it out for one month for free by using the code. Goonie uh I mean I mean this trade alone I'll even show it to you I mean well you can see from the Spy selling off if I switch it back to here, this is probably going to make 30 grand. Which means that what you could pay for locals for the next 300 years of your life just in case we ever figure out eternal life. So this one trade crushing it right there.

Um, so that's what. I'm gonna be watching out of the gate obviously I need to handle that position. But the other five things you should know before the stock market bill goes. Dingety ding ding ding today July 6th Managing Expectations.

Um, the Federal Reserve I in my opinion has been straightforward. Hey, inflation's bad. We think it's going to take more than a year to resolve. We're going to be aggressively finding it.

We're not stopping and the Market's like nah but like bro like it could be cool and then the fed's like no, we're seriously fighting this so we'll see how that all go. Zuck's new threads: Yes, um. loaded 10 million signups in seven hours? Holy Steve Goonies Never Say Die Steve Shout out, hope you're crushing that Yeah, short position. Uh, past five million signups in the first four hours.

So the first seven hours as in the rate started to pick up. three more hours. then I got a whole another five million. That is crazy.

The app, get the app to like reply and post well this is I guess sucks but make sure you follow me on threads. Follow me. Follow me. Follow me.

Follow me. Follow me. 10 million sign ups in seven hours. That is absolutely insane.

Absolutely insane. Yellow arrives in China that's going to be today, tomorrow and the next day. so we're gonna be getting some updates about that. Without a doubt, that's the spirit.

JetBlue is walking away from the Northeast U.S partnership with American Airlines in order to focus on closing its deal to buy a low-cost carrier spirit. And then uh, the guy from the Wagner group. uh, Evgeny. he like that mercenary group in Russia that had like kind of a 36 hour coup.

Uh, apparently we don't know where the dude is and I'm if I had a guess I would say he's probably not alive. But anyway, that's just my guess. So let me drop this to the one minute just so we could get ready for the market open. Uh, we could watch Meta because of threads I Know Mullen's going up.

Mullen is doing a 25 million share buyback. It gained 69 yesterday. It's up 65 today. this is Mullen in the bottom right of your screen I Want to make something very, very clear here: Mullen Lots of volatility, lots of a percentage movement.

It's a good active trade, but Over My Dead Body would I invest in this piece of garbage? Please understand, there's a massive difference between an active trade to the upside and to the downside. then there is an investment. If you're talking about investing, you're talking about a strong fundamental company that CEO isn't a complete scumbag that you think will grow years down the line. Very very different than an active trade because of a catalyst based on news.

So I just want to be clear about that I have no mull in position. but I just don't see how this is gonna end well for Mullin investors. And on that note, dignity ding ding ding. The casino is open.

Welcome to the show. All right, let's see where my account is at. Uh, so this is how we're opening today. When the market closed yesterday, I was down 3.5 K I am up 41 000 right now I'm in at 85.

they're trading at 222. I have 300 of them. so I'm up just over 40K My account yesterday closed at 89k. It's obviously 133 now and this is what happens every time.

is it goes in my favor and then it just seems to rip all freaking day. I Just want this to come down I do have targets I'm not just blindly holding I do have very specific levels I'm looking for that I want to show all of you if this ever loads right. Here here are my levels: I'm watching 439 which is the low from Friday June 16th and then I'm watching this downside Gap Fill That is kind of a downside gaffle. even though now we have an upside Gap filter to 441.90.

we're in the middle of a gap between four Four One Ninety and Four Three Eight Two eight, the top pink one and the pink one. We're in the middle of a Gap region which we we gapped up. We gapped down. We're skipping over that like we're playing like Hopscotch apparently in like the stock market so it's a tough call.

This is the level I'm looking for I'm actively looking for four, Three Eight Two eight this high from Thursday June 29th I'm looking for the market to come there I think it's gonna hit it? It's just kind of a question of when because obviously my puts do expire and just when you're considering Theta you want the most time possible. So I I can't be too pig-headed with it. but I'm obviously watching very very closely because I want to properly make my money. so I'm watching that.

downside Gap The region even though if we hit it, there's still technically an upside Gap though between whatever the current high of today is all the way up to once again, four, four, one ninety, there's the upside: Gap fill the 441.90 and the downside: Gap filter to 43828 obviously I put so I'm looking for this downside. Gap though so I have levels I'm not just like generically holding, but we'll see how it all goes. We'll see if I'm going to get lucky or not today. Uh, obviously.

uh I wouldn't mind scaling out a little bit on the break of 439 so about 30 to 40 cents below where we are right now. Obviously I'm gonna also be monitoring some of these other larger players like Apple and Meta. and Microsoft so Apple's popping. Not the best for me.

Um XLF The financial sector was strong yesterday, so I would love to see some weakness in it. Uh, XLE is strong. so the energy sector showing strength right now while the financial sector is not doing anything too special. Tesla Tesla actually popped up to almost 280.

Meta is selling off actually just went red on the day was Green at first. Microsoft Okay, this is my first. Target Let's see if this is just a liquidity grab or not. Microsoft is actually down a bit so Tesla's looking good and Apple's actually holding.

Right now, the cues are coming down. though. the cues are coming down interesting. We'll see how this goes.

Is there a way I could just put this up on the screen above my head? All right. let me see if I could add this just so you guys can see the pillow. Now you know. Window capture ad source uh uh, ad Source Weeble Desktop Okay, can you guys see this? I'll put it right over my head.

Is that good? Does that make more sense? I Need thumbs up for thumbs down I Feel like I did edit it properly? Nope. that still doesn't look the best. Doing a little bit of touch up, you know I Want to make it look nice for all you people? No. Still not quite there.

Still not quite there. Maybe it doesn't make more sense to go down here. Does it look acceptable? Maybe in the top right? How does that look up? There does in the bottom left Maybe I Guess is that a good spot for it? The bottom left. If I does it? stop updating those.

The question is: if I bring this up I don't I want to make sure it keeps updating? Does it or does it get? Frozen No, that's updating right? because I had to bring the screen down and I didn't know if it keeps grabbing it. it looks like it's still updating. Did I just get banned? No, we're not really Banning people when I'm crushing it the side next to me. so you guys like it better over here Like that.

makes more sense. Whatever. Uh I can't send message I'm reading your message right now and everyone's reading your message right now. All right.

so we are below this first: Target Remember I have my target set up 439 my next one and we need to set an alert on it. ADD alert. Uh, 43828. Without a doubt, 43828 alert set.

This is the downside. Gaffle: This is the highest from Thursday June 29th. But I Also do want to point out that I do have some deeper targets than that. if I were to throw up the 15 minute.

Uh, I am looking at four, four, two seven but from there I'm looking in this range I Want to be very clear about this: Uh, this is a nice profit Target Zone that would be farther down than what we're talking about, so definitely would love to take a bit of profit here. We'll make it green, Just so that's evidently clear. This would be a lovely profit. Zone if it hits I don't know if it will a Boy Can Dream Uh, we're coming up to the low from two days ago right now on the Futures Market I I Very much like marking out previous highs and lows, this is the low from Friday June 30th.

So we are coming up to that and and ideally we'll be there shortly. Oops. Did not want to do that. Uh, let me go back to the 15 minute.

So we are a couple ticks away from the low from Friday I care about this four, four, three three and then from there I'm basically watching 4425 and then from there I'm watching this Zone which is exactly where I would love to take the line share of my profit if the market gives it to us today. I'm seeing a lot of weakness in the market. Uh, and we'll see how it all goes. We'll see how it all goes.

When did Matt get into those puts yesterday? It's actually right here I put it on it was in the morning yesterday, but right right right right right here. So I Posted this 22 hours ago: 11 30 A.m 7-5 stream position Update: Spy Puts 4 40 July 10th 85 Spy My risk with Spy breaks and holds 444. this is why you should be on Locals Macquares.locals.com here. I'll pin it right now so you guys can find it and this is just to know what I'm doing.

But also there's other phenomenal traders in there. Like my whole point with this: like I don't really like the concept of like selling signals or anything like that. My point is just to like curate a really cool trading community of people who like share ideas. We're not all going to be right all the time, but like it's just to share trading ideas and Concepts and it's nice I mean many hands make light work.

so when there's a community of people who like know what they're looking at and sharing ideas and talking about things like I only see it being a benefit is Mullen still going all right. This is what I was worried about. was like this fake outbreak down below this level I want this to get smacked? Look how quickly that changes. The account went from 57k to 52k just like that.

Just like that. This is brutal, brutal, brutal, brutal. What? I could do What I could do? How much did I spend on this whole position? 25.5 k 300. So this whole position to create it cost me 25.5 k 5.

So I could sell a hundred at two dollars and 55 cents. and if I do that, that's the whole position and then the leftover like I'll have 200 left over. It's completely risk-free so I might not be making any profit on it, but I at least wouldn't be risking any. What's it trading at right now? it's trading at 252.

that feels like that's the smart play is if I could sell a hundred of my 300 at 255, it's trading at 254 right now. I I Carry no risk I might not make profit, but I at least don't risk any money. All right. So Quantity: 100.

It's trading at 256 right now. Let's go for a little bit of a reach. Let's go for two 70. I have a hundred limit for 270.

It's trading at 258 right now. Okay, the order is in. It's the orders in the orders and the orders and the orders in um and we'll see if that gets hit. We'll see if that gets hit.

Um so if it does get hit, that at least what's that if 15 times 100, no matter what, I'll be making 1.5 K on the trade. if this gets hit which it looks like it's about to. Worst case scenario: if this gets hit which I think we're gonna see it in my open p l it should drop right there. See how it just dropped to 37k your boy got hit.

So right here. uh, full monitor. So here. uh I just filled a hundred at 270.

So basically I bought 100, bought 198, 78, 80. those were my fills from yesterday. Seven five this morning I just got out of 100 at 270. my break even was selling 100 at 255.

the fact that I'm 15 cents above that sold 100, it guarantees me a profit of 1.5 K So the absolute worst way this goes for me. The absolute worst way this goes for me is a profit of 1.5 K And it's just more of how can I manage the rest of it. This is all just Casino money. Now it's all Casino money now.

Um so I'm making money on this play and I'm not carrying any risk whatsoever. My risk is only making 1.5 k. Um so now I can just let it ride now I could just see how this rides. um obviously I still want Max money like like I still have that pressure but at least I don't have pressure of going down in my account.

Really my goal with it. The account is currently valued at 149. Not long ago, that account was at like 30. 40K Talk about Mullen or you are not in a Mullen has nothing to do with Apes Do you guys really think Mullen is an ape stock? If if you think Mullen has anything to do with the Apes you're a little bit stupid.

Mullen is a shitty EV company run by a scummy CEO Its fundamentals are trash. The only reason it's going up right now is because they announced a 25 million share buyback. It doesn't have good fundamental projections. It doesn't have a good fundamental project.

The leadership team is a joke. It is only up right now because of a catalyst. If this current catalyst is tricking you to investing in it, that's exactly what it's doing. You are being tricked.

You are being deceived. You are being duped. It's a good active trade High volatility to the upside downside. So if you're a day trader, yeah, have that and play to the upside.

Play to the downside. But if you think this dumb is getting you to invest, uh, come on, come on. it's just trash. It's absolute trash.

Up to a 25 million share buyback, it's not guaranteed. Oh I Didn't know that. That's a little weird that it's not guaranteed. Interesting.

Interesting. Interesting. We are trolling you. What about my emotions? You are the exit liquidity on Mullen Dude, it's so bad.

I mean I get particularly frustrated about it because I know people are getting tricked into buying it like if you look at Mullen This is like one of the in my opinion, this is one of the biggest scam companies right now on the public markets. The same with Gns, Gns and Mullen they deserve to be at zero. They're trash, trash, trash, trash. Absolute like.

And as I said yesterday, it's almost offensive to trash because some trash has value I don't think those companies have any value. Any value? Uh, are you talking about AMC Honestly, AMC right now is pretty trashy too. Uh, the Spy try to vomit a little bit right there. Uh, but we did not break that level that I'm watching the four three, eight, two eight.

this is the high from Thursday June 29th I Could have tried to be a little bit more patient and scale out right now instead of getting out at 270. I could be getting out at 290. So if I did that, um, that would be another two grand that I would have been guaranteed. So instead of being guaranteed 1.5 K would have been guaranteed 3.5 k.

But like what if it bounced before then I would just be mad or like what if I did this and it bounces right off of it. See if I wanted it to hit two eight, how close did it get? It got to three two so I was off by four cents. My apologies I Know you guys come here for perfection I Know you guys only come to me because you're like we need a guy who calls it out to the exact scent level and not a guy who is off by four cents. and I completely understand.

Please understand. Uh, right now, the Market's a little bit more volatile, a little bit more jumping because the Ism Services just got reported profit. Do you have those numbers? PMI numbers just came out buddy crushing it. Yeah, right here.

Okay, ISM Services comes out at 10 PMI Services just came out at 9 45 What are they saying about it? Yes, Carl lots of numbers Rick come out. This round is S P Global Services Mid-month read was 54.1 Well, it increased to 54.4 and it Remains the fifth consecutive month above 50 in expansion territory. Same is true for the composite PMI by S P Global 53.0 is mid-month read: Carl 53.2 A bit of improvement. Also, the fifth month above 50 in expansion mode, we still have jolts may read to come along with another group of Pmis from ISM services and we see that interest rates are toying with some cycle high yield closes 507 for twos we're now testing and above four percent for tens.

Squawk on the street will return after a short break. Foreign Rick Man 54.4 versus 54.1 causing the market to go up ever so slightly. jolted down but a little bit of a pop. Uh, I Don't think it'll be that the most influential like I Don't think that the PMI number is going to be like predicting the direction for the rest of the day, but who knows.

As of right now, this is the pop back. We went right from that level I was talking about. Technically I was off by four cents. Um I had four, three, eight, two eight.

It hit four, three eight three two. Oh, side note this right here. Um I Don't want anyone thinking to like watching this to think that it's some special big brain prediction that you have to be training for years and years and years to know to be able to call this out. If you have the ability to open up the internet and watch me, you have the ability to also predict these types of things because it's really not that special.

It is truly not that special at all if I just show you this just to clean this up and make it a bit clearer. Okay, so before the market opened, let's pretend that this bar right here was not yet Trading You you see a gap? There's this low. There's this: High There's a huge gap in this region between Four Four, One Ninety and 43828. It was an untested region.

and there is, for whatever reason, and we could get into that. There's a phenomena for the market to love to test untested regions of supply and demand. That's what this entire thing was before the market opened. This right here was an untested region of supply and demand.

Let me make this back to White Looks a little bit easier I Think it's a bit. this was untested. Now Obviously, you could argue that this is untested. and also at this point now, there's a little baby area that's untested.

Basically this four cents. So these are currently two untested areas. So I would argue. Yes, the market and we could get into this later has an affinity for testing these untested areas of supply and demand.

So there's this region from what 43962 all the way up to Four Four One ninety. And there's also this region from 43832 down to four, three, Eight Two eight. So there's a four Cent region below and a multi-dollar region on top. So in terms of like, if you're wondering, how did Matt call this out? why was he like okay, I almost called it out I was I was four cents off? That's all I said Oh wow, this is an untested region.

That's all it was. There was nothing special to it I'm not doing some like Einstein level calculations looking at the volume and the Macd and the RSI and anything. no that didn't happen at all. It was more so of like uh, almost like a child's level pattern recognition where I was like huh? that's untested I wonder if it's gonna go test it So like there's so much that happens in the stock market where I feel like people just because they're quote unquote Traders just because they're in Wall Street street that it seems like they want to feel better then and they want to feel as if they're doing something that you're incapable of doing.

and I'm telling you this right now that in terms of like learning the functional things of trading stocks Futures options, crypto it's honestly really easy. The major thing that differentiates a profitable Trader versus a losing Trader It's really just discipline. It's not knowledge of the markets, it's just a person who can stick to their trading plan. It's not even that difficult to make a like a profitable trading plan of course like there's better ones and of course you always want like the best one you can find.

but in reality if you found a basic trading program and actually could just stick to it, there's a very good chance that you would be a profitable Trader or even more of a profitable Trader it's I I've said this so many times and I just want to reiterate it: maybe we have a new viewer in here I Truly believe success in trading is made up from three things. Of course, there's going to be some luck. Maybe you get Lux with like lucky with a gap up gap down, blah blah blah You Could argue that I was somewhat lucky this morning with such a sizable Gap Dump Yeah I agree I Think that's 10 of the formula. 20 of the formula is actually skill.

Do you know how Greeks work? Do you know how Futures contracts work? Do you know how Market imbalances work? Do you know how basic technicals work? Do you know how to read? whatever? Wyckoff Elliott RSI Macd all that stuff. That's the actual like functional knowledge. So so we're at 30 in total now the other seventy percent. The third thing in this equation I Truly just to believe is your discipline.

Can you stick to a trading plan? Tesla Just got its downside Gap though that we were calling out yesterday if this ever loads, why am I having such a uh or no? I was actually looking for this for a breakdown. maybe the potential start of a gap Bill to 264. Do I want to play that 275 risking 280 risking five dollars to get ten? That's a two to one setup I Kind of like that I Kind of like that. Let's see how I could do this.

Options, Options. Options. Options. Options.

Options. Options. Options. Options.

Options, Options Options Options Options Options Okay I just got some Tesla puts Tesla 265 July 14th Uh I got a fill at four dollars. It's trading at 397 right now and I I can make this so painfully easy. My risk is right here. Today's high: 280 My target is down here.

This downside: Gapville to 264.45 I Like playing Gapvilles. Uh, I think that they have a positive expected value if you can manage your risk appropriately. So I'm playing for this Gap fill. It's currently trading at 274.68 My Gap to the Target is 264.45 My risk is 280.

I have a two to one risk to reward. Uh, where's my risk reward calculator? Is it This guy right? here? This is my risk. This is my reward. Um, so what is this? Uh Target So basically, in terms of the stock, I'm risking 1.77 for a target of 3.87 I Feel a little bit more confident about it.

The risk reward is 2.2 so obviously the number bigger the better. I Wouldn't really ever recommend going below two, but also that depends on your specific trading strategy. The more so, the reason why I'm willing to take this trade is because I know Tesla is generically going to go in the way of the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ. Actually, this now has a big gap up and also a gap down.

Oh I Like this: Yeah, the accused have not hit their upside or their downside. Target the same exact way as the Spy um wait what was that is the Spy dude my computer. why is this website not loading? It's taken. Dude, this is pissing I think I have too many programs open is I don't know if it's my CPU or like what's going on Matt how come SPX shows the gaps but not spy? uh different trading times SPX spy and Es all tracking the S P 500 have different trading schedules So based on their opening and closing of.

Like whatever that trading schedule is, you can see uh, certain gaps and I just realized that this is now showing you that number is actually the Tesla number. So hang on. let me edit this. Let me edit this.

Uh uh. there you go. So for the kids who are just joining into class, first of all, you're late demerit. Second of all, the top position is a Tesla position and the bottom position is my spy position.

Both are puts. what kind of computer do you have? um let me see if I can I mean I think I have a 30 80 like it shouldn't be I think it's something honestly with chrome because like my other programs aren't showing issues. uh NZXT GPU load is 24 percent, the clock is 765. the CPU is five percent like I'm not seeing a spike in the load I mean is a is a GT GPU load above 30 is that bad? The Fan's not on.

Maybe my fans broke my Ram is 38 percent. oh my Ram it is. Chrome out of my Ram is the load is 38. 13 of that is Chrome.

So something's going on with my Chrome Um, if there's any computer whiz is in here, that could explain to me why Chrome is just like my computer right now. Hmm. Frustrating. Well, maybe I have to cash out early so I can just buy a new computer.

Uh, it's fine. That's good. Not at all. Okay, so that's not a problem then why and what's my problem? Okay, okay I might I'm gonna need a little bit more time, but I kind of want to use four, three eight Six one as my risk.

Uh, but I need some more time to develop I'm just looking at this order block that smashed it so I'd feel confident if it actually could stay below it. I'm also going to be watching this uh, 439. but just to remind everyone of how things played out on Friday My goal here is not a magnitude goal. If you're looking at the numbers above me, these are numbers like that is so dumb to think about that.

that right. There is pretty much what the average American family makes I think it's 60k, uh, and I already locked in whatever percentage. Um, you can't think of it that way. your goal.

or at least Michael. This is how I View: Trading is taking the meat of the move for whatever time frame you're on. so it's going to move from whatever high value to whatever low value. if I can capture 60, 70, maybe 80 percent of it I did my job.

that is. My goal is capturing the highest majority of the move. I can if I got 100, that'd be awesome I didn't because I didn't top tick my entry and I'm not gonna bottom tick my exit. It's not going to work that way.

your goal like if you're thinking oh, I want a bottom ticket and I want a top take. Dude, we all do. We all do. We all do.

We all do. but understand the chance of you pulling that off is slim to none. You can get close, you can consistently get whatever 70 80 percent of the move. but if your goal is to maximize it like that, you're just not going to do it because there's too much luck involved.

like in the very, very small time frame when you're trying to bottom take top, take all that stuff it, there's just too much. Randomness So similar to Friday Let's just take a walk down memory lane. Dude, look at this. Why is it going so slow and it's particularly trading View: I Don't know if I have like cookies on it or like what the hell is going on, but here's what happened on: Friday This is Thursday and Friday of last week I got in around here maybe on some calls on Thursday and then I had to average down in here so I definitely didn't Bottom ticket: I mean the bottom was 435 and my average was actually closer to like fourth the high 437.

so my average was in here. So for a decent amount of the day I was like underwater so I I basically took this. this was my move. let's just call it this.

I was able to get out on the breakdown uh around here is like four four Three Sixty but this low of it is kind of like the level that I exited. so to me that's the meat of the move obviously. uh I wish I could have gotten lower I wish I could have got in over here. that would have yes been a better entry and yes I wish I could have exited up here but I didn't but still I got the most of the move that I could.

So I think that's an important thing to understand with all this. if your goal is like oh I only want a bottom tick I only want a top tick I miss out on that region but I still got most of the move. Most of the move should be your goal at least how I view it. Maybe you have an amazing system that allows you to get 99 100 of the move and I'm jealous of you I Congratulate you I hope you keep crushing it I hope you teach me your ways I I'm just not at that level I I Just don't know how to do that.

So basically I'm trading in a way that like at least I I know a little bit and I'm a little bit more comfortable with. but like hey, if you're out there and you're like dude I crush it all the time and I get more of a percentage than you dude, teach me come on the channel, let's do a talk. Like the whole point of like doing this is just to like, share, and inform each other. Uh, we're coming up to my next Target right here.

Four Four Two seven. We could just call it Four Four Two five. This is on the S P 500 futures Market Uh, but we've seen some reactions here in the past. But anyway, Four Four Two Seven Four Four Two five.

key, technical level, key, psychological level. We're breaking below the low of Friday which I really like 4430. so I hope we don't recapture that at all at all at all. Um, but anyway, that's what I'm watching over there.

So with me right now, these numbers above my head I Get it? They're crazy numbers. They're a lot of numbers. It means a lot to me, especially when my January and February of this year were poor trading months. I think in January alone I lost 35k.

So the way I look at I'm like dude I could lock this in right now and all of a sudden I'm forgetting about some of my serious losses. like getting myself back to like where I want to be. the fact that like I could erase a month, month and a half of losses in one trade. Yeah, that's very, very enticing.

But I'm not focusing just on the number like that. and I admit it. I'm human when it gets to 50K when it gets to 75k when it gets to 69k when it gets to 100K Those are fun numbers. Those are nice numbers.

Just really. dude. I don't even care. These numbers are so disgusting.

I'm just going to take it I don't even care if it keeps going and I get it. That's human. That's totally like a human emotion that I have we all have and it's like, but really what I attempt to do with that 70 of a successful Trader I attempt to just ride the trend as long as I think it's intact So that's tough. That's really tough because sometimes you're asking yourself you're like, well, hang on, is the trend literally in your favor and maybe there's just like a little bit of a breather against you or is the trend actually changing and that's like kind of that gray area where it's really difficult and it's really, really easy to beat yourself up of being disciplined? or were you being greedy? And unfortunately we were talking about this in the Discord this morning which everyone is the right one is what you're going to say.

So basically let's say the market were to bounce right now. like right here, bounce off of it and just start ripping all day. Well a lot of you in chat would be saying dude, why were you so greedy, You were up 50k why didn't you take the money that's so stupid you were at that level like what's going on, why didn't you take it Okay well you could argue that I'm greedy, but what if we just had a healthy correction and then vomited even more A lot of other people would be like oh no, you were patient because like the trend didn't officially break and you were just being patient. So my point is in either of those scenarios, you don't know what the next bar is going to be.

we don't know what the true direction is going to be in whatever X time frame and it's super easy in retrospect when your Monday morning quarterbacking to always just have the emotional response of whatever the right one was. So if it bounces you're gonna be like dude I was too greedy. why didn't I just get out I Had the opportunity. but on the flip side, if we get a bounce and then an even bigger vomit and you got out early, you're like, dude, why wasn't I just more patient I should have lit my Winner's ride and this is kind of like a very, very cruel aspect of trading is: no matter what, no matter what, you can always look back at your trade, you could always look back at your charts and just be like dude, why didn't I trade this better Because like the point is is, we're never going to trade it a hundred percent accurately.

so you're going to be looking at it. the queues are they got their downside Gap though, so just be careful with that. That's definitely, um, of a brutal part of trading and I think a lot of us like fall into that and I think the easiest way to do it is kind of what I was referring to at the start of: just are you getting the meat of the move If you're getting 60, 70, 80, 80 plus percent of an overall trend for whatever time frame you're on, maybe you're looking at the monthly chart, the weekly, the daily, the one minute I Don't care whatever time frame you're on, if you're getting most of that move 50, 60, 70, 80, 80 plus percent and you're doing that time and time again, your P L will just keep going up and up and up. Matt Remember yesterday how you said you were up between 60 Matt Remember yesterday how you said you were up between 67 of the past nine months and we could see the downtrend bear Trend at any moment you called it baby.

Oh oh, you're saying for the overall Market Well hang on. I Wouldn't say we're officially in a bear Trend yet I Mean this is like one bad day after kind of a neutral day. Like we're still above this low. Um things I I Believe will change if we end up breaking this low.

But we just ripped. We came down, we double topped, and who knows, this could still put in a higher low. This could turn right now and rip all the way back up to 444 and break out. and at that point, yeah, it would pay to still be bullish.

but um I I Do think we're wildly overvalued I Do think the market is coming down? It's just I'm super hesitant to say when, because remember, the market can remain illogical longer than any of us can remain solvent. So as much as you might have a medium or a long-term projection, if you're in this short-term game of day trading or like, maybe a couple day swing trade type of a thing, you gotta trade with Trend Even even if that's against your bias of where you think things are going because of whatever fundamental like breakdown you have going on. um I I Really think like and that's tough because I know we cover the news and we'll talk about the FED we'll talk about whatever global conflict we'll talk about student loan repayments, this that the other thing and I think sometimes that can, um, in a weird way, like kind of mar your opinion of just like it's short term like this. If you're looking at what the Spy is doing yesterday today and the next day like if we're saying we're sub one week, understand that we could be in the most bullish environment and you can still have a brutally bad week.

We could be in the most bearish environment and we can still have an amazing bullish week as in if you're shorter term like as in a couple day swing all the way down to trade day trading. Sometimes I think it's actually good to not even be paying attention to the news because I think it can kind of mess with your subconscious. Um, which sometimes it benefits because this I was confident enough to get into it because of what the FED said. So that's really taking in news, but in reality the price action wasn't showing weakness yet.

so sometimes it benefits you. Sometimes it doesn't so much of this game. So much of this game is 50 50. 50 50.

If you want to know the odds of like winning on a trade, losing on a trade, it's roughly 50 50. you're probably not going to escape that plus or minus 10 15 You're going to be in the realm between 35 and 65 accuracy. So if you know you're still gonna even in the best case, if you're still losing 30 of the time that that's a lot. And like I get it.

We all want every single trade to be a winner. We all have that mental idea. even though we know it's statistically impossible, we all are trying to make every