Hola Amuse Amigos This is your update for what the heck is happening in the world. Today we have a little bit of political breaking news related to that guy who's the son of the most powerful person in the world Well Turns out he's being indicted. Then we're going to turn our attention to what's going on in the overall economy, in the market and big macroeconomic reports going down today. Obviously we'll be getting into those and then more so in terms of trading the Overall: Market Beautiful breakout and hold.

Looking for some upward levels and then in terms of individual equities, we're going to be breaking down the most successful IPO of the Year Shout out to Arm and also a big update related to AMC and the delusion. Basically the Tldr there is that the dilution is done, but have some other interesting details I Want to point out to you So before we get into all that, don't forget to hit the like button. Don't forget to subscribe. and now let's rock.

Thank you! By the time the closing bell went dingy ding ding ding today Thursday September 14th things were looking pretty good. Dow Jones Stranger points for best days since early. August As Arm debut revives, IPO Market Hope Just a little bit of a reminder, the IPO Market is definitely heating up. Obviously Arm had a successful debut.

On top of that, we now know Instacart and both Birkenstock are filing for their IPO So it's exciting to see where this is gonna go now before we get really too far down to the world of the economy in the market and degenerately trading. As I alluded to before, we do have a little bit of a political update. Mr Hunter Indicted on Firearms charges Hunter The son of the Prez was indicted on three criminal counts related to his possession of a firearm. A court filing showed the charges of U.S District Court In Delaware came weeks after the unexpected collapse of a deal with Federal prosecutors.

Biden is charged with two of the counts with lying about his illegal drug use in connection with the purchase of a cold revolver. Former President Donald Trump complained that the gun charge is the only crime that Hunter Biden committed that does not implicate crooked. Joe Biden Before you pop off in the comments: I Get it. I Get it.

A lot of politicians and a lot of politicians. kittens do things that are not appropriate: illegal, nefarious, suspicious, questionable, whatever word you want to use. and I fully agree with you. I'm not one of these people who thinks one side does it all right when the other side does it all wrong.

But right now, it is pretty crazy that the son of the most powerful person in the world is getting caught up with a firearm charge. That's absolutely ridiculous. If you do a little bit of a deep dive into this, it's one of those situations where people who don't have a name or money or access and I'm getting in serious, serious, serious trouble and then the people who are opposite, have a name, have money, have access end up getting a slap on the wrist. So no matter how this goes, I'm sure probably half the country is going to end up being pissed off.

I Supposed to focus on some good? we could focus on the green. Bullish. Good fact that the overall Market was pretty green. Here's a quick look at the S P 500 heat map.

Obviously there's a little bit of weakness in names such as Netflix and Visa. but beyond that I'm seeing quite a bit of green the overall. Market The S P 500 gained 0.86 the NASDAQ gained a similar 0.82 Here's a look at the arm: debut. Started trading in the realm of 56.

Closed out the day, uh, near 63 in some change. so pretty successful day there. I Do have an update on AMC which actually had some fundamentally good news. The dilution is over, as in the supply at this moment in time is no longer being increased and we saw that when AMC was up in excess of eight nine percent this morning and then unfortunately bled off all day.

So I'm gonna give you some thoughts of why I Think this might have happened, but once again, that is quite a bit of conjecture. But first, let's get rocking with the overall market and the major macro economic reports of the day. So at 8 15 this morning, an hour and 15 minutes before the market opened, we found out that the European Central Bank the ECB the equivalent of our Central Bank Here, our fed. that's just what they call it over there hikes rates to record level hints at possible Peak Now this was a bit of a surprise because most people were predicting that they would hold their rates constant.

but in fact they ended up increasing it by 25 bips. 15 minutes after that, we got some big U.S Reports First let off by retail sales U.S Retail sales Producer prices jump on Rising Energy costs U.S Retail sales and producer prices both Rose in August By more than forecasts driven by higher fuel costs, that risk tempering household spending and keeping inflation elevated, the value of total retail purchases increased by 0.6 from July. Following downward revisions from the prior two months Commerce Department Data showed: Thursday excluding gasoline sales climbed a more modest point two percent. So they have a very valid point here.

if you check out oil of what's going on, it's been ripping ever since. Honestly, you could scroll back a little bit and you're gonna see the high 60s around 67. From that point in the late June till now, we're now above 90. just absolute Rip City Clearly not helping with inflation at all.

More specific to the PPI the producer price index: August Wholesale inflation Rises 0.7 percent hotter than expected, but core prices are in check and this was a little bit of the silver lining the fact that core prices people the market seem to be okay with. But just to give you kind of a little snapshot of all the numbers this morning. So 8 15 early this morning, early early this morning, the Rise of the Sun. We got that decision from the ECB.

Once again, it was the surprise rate increase by 0.25 So from 4.25 up to 4.5 if you look at core retail sales, they were expecting 0.4 came in at 0.6 Initial jobless claims pretty much budget line the PPI they were expecting point four percent month over month came in at 0.7 and then retail sales depending on who you asked, they were either expecting 0.1 or 0.2 coming in at 0.6 So when this was all reported I think it's safe to say that the initial reaction was a little bit suspect you could see it kind of here. Uh, we ended up dipping a little bit. but then we popped this morning in the trading action. yeah, little bearish for maybe the first 45 minutes.

and then ever since it basically touched the high from yesterday, it was off by one cent. From there, we were just pretty much Rip City into a clear breakout level. Might as well do it now, but this is the high from last week and we're just starting to see that. Oh okay, that's the exact level we ran into and got rejected today.

So what I'm looking for is the test of that 451 level tomorrow. If you can get above and hold above, then I'm looking at 454. But if it gets rejected, I'm looking for a smack back down into the region of 448. I'm not necessarily leaning bullish or bears I'll let the price action tell me which way I should play it.

but I think that 451 level is a very key breakout area. Speaking of breaking out, Arm made its debut today. So ticker symbol Arm for company Arm. It's in the world of semiconductors.

Think of Nvidia Intel AMD Oracle all that good stuff as I Covered before. You probably haven't heard of Arm, but you've definitely used products related to Arm. In fact, if you're watching this video right now, there's a better chance than not that you're using something that was designed by Arm. but it's in the world of processing chips, chip designer arms.

Debut gains deliver win for owner. SoftBank Arm shares climb up to 22 in win for SoftBank Intel Apple Nvidia Among Tech Giants Backing Arms listing, Arm climbs 25 and NASDAQ debut after pressing IPO came at 51 obviously just to see where we are now. it was priced at 51, ended the day at 63 and some change. so arguably a pretty successful IPO Arm Holdings has started trading on the NASDAQ Under the Ticker Arm.

The Chip Design Company is valued at a steep premium relative to the rest of the semiconductor. Market SoftBank still holds about 90 percent of Armed Stock. Just to let you know, I Do believe that Arm will be a successful company just because of where its position within the industry and the way technology is going. I Think that arm will continue to ride off of that wave.

But also on that note, I don't have any position on arm I'm not long I'm not sure I don't have calls on my puts I'm not touching it just because I don't necessarily like trading IPOs I Think they're more of a crap shoot than anything else. So when things settle down, I'm gonna start watching it a bit more in terms of my own trade and or investment. But right now I'm more so watching it just for the popcorn, the volatility, the craziness. Speaking of popcorn and craziness, AMC Had a very good pre-market session.

We ended up closing in the realm of 824 and then it pushed as high as almost a dollar higher, in excess of a dollar higher. And that was all on a pretty solid fundamental update. We got this right here: AMC Entertainment Holdings has a now announced today that has completed its previously disclosed at the market Equity offering launch on September 6. AMC Raised approximately 325 million of the new Equity Capital through the sale 40 million shares before the commissions and fees at an average price of approximately eight dollars and 14 cents.

So the reason it popped was because we know the dilution's over. Think about it as simply as this: when you're diluting, you're increasing Supply The demand is roughly the same So That obviously means price goes down, but when it gets announced that it's all done well, you're no longer inflating Supply So the market generally reacts in a positive sense, and that's obviously exactly what we saw right here. Now this leads to the question of well, why didn't it hold if this is arguably fundamentally solid. Now, obviously, this is just conjecture.

You can come up with your own reasoning, but I Think we need to dive a bit more into the information here. The completion of This At The Market Equity offering significantly boosts AMC's cash reserves, addresses current liquidity concerns, and fortifies the balance sheet when coupled with the third quarter to date, 39 surge in Industry box office compared to the same period last year, and the record-breaking success of the highly anticipated Taylor Swift The Eras concert film. The proceeds from the At The Market Equity offering allow AMC to continue along its successful recovery. Glide Path through changing market dynamics including the ongoing strikes by writers and actors and capitalize on opportunities to further strengthen its balance sheet.

Couple things to talk about here and really, they start with it and kind of end with it talking about its balance sheet. So first of all, the fact that they raise money that's arguably good. They have more money on him. There's other things going on such as Taylor Swift and the Eras Tour concert film that's obviously just an additional Revenue driver.

It's good. We could argue about the magnitude of how good this is, but obviously more money in the door. That's a solid thing, but they kept bringing up balance sheet which made me want to go look into their balance sheet and this is the problem right here. It's more of the realization that they cause the stock to drop.

From the announcement of the at the market offering until now, we could do some quick math on that. They announced it on the sixth, so we're looking at the close on the fifth. to this point it's down roughly 40 41. And if you look at the current market cap of AMC which is 1.29 billion, that means for them to complete this at the market Equity offering AMC as a company loss about a billion dollars in market cap, which is obviously not the most ideal to lose a billion in market cap, but only raise 325 million.

But whatever market cap it does fluctuate with the market, so if the stock goes up, that might not be the best argument. I Think the concern is right here: Long-term debt about 4.8 billion. Well, obviously it's a drop in the bucket. When you only raise 325 million, you raise 325 million cause your market cap to go back down by a billion.

We do have 4.8 billion in debt and whatever. A lot of this isn't due for years and years and years. but I think this is the real concerning thing: the amount of money that they pay per year on their debt. So not paying down their debt, just the interest on their debt is between three and four hundred million dollars depending on what particular debt Bond you're looking at.

that's bad when you are not raising enough money to even pay off your interest payment per year on your debt burden. That gets really complicated. So right now, obviously things are looking pretty rough like I Don't think that's really arguable. now.

Obviously, the fundamentals can continue to improve as I alluded to before, the fact that the dilution's over. That's a good thing. There's Revenue drivers such as Taylor Swift But it comes down to a discussion of how good are these fundamental improvements and obviously they need to get better to take care of not only the overall debt, but I think more of a pressing matter is just the interest payment on the debt that I think when people are diving into the market, they're starting to think uh oh, that's not the best fundamental situation for AMC I Just figured some of you would want this. so I want to give you the information.

As of right now, the short interest against AMC is around 16. a little bit north of 16 the cost to borrow just below six percent in utilization. it's around 84. Obviously, you can do whatever you want with these numbers.

I Just get it asked a lot. So I wanted to share it with all of you. Now one thing to wrap this all up just for: Friday September 15th I Want to give you the seasonality you can get this I send it out for free every single weekend as a newsletter, but right here Friday September 15th The expected seasonality for the overall Market is leaning slightly bullish now. obviously the Bulls have won 54 of the time.

That's just better than flipping a coin. but I more. So want to point out how over the last 15 years we've had this nice uptrend in the equity curve that was simulated by buying it open and selling it close on this exact day. So going into the close of the week, I'm gonna argue that the Bulls have a slight upper hand because of seasonality, but really, it's going to be more so because of the nice performance we had today.

So obviously we recently pushed up, came back a little bit so we had some range bound action. Then we push, we opened up above it, almost got this Gap fill. It was technically off by one cent, but it's more so the recovery that we saw on the strength throughout the day. So I think the real battle is going to come down to how does the market and all the participants in the market react to that 451 level? That's what I have for you now.

I'll catch you in the show tomorrow morning 9 A.M Bright and early I Hope to see you there have a great evening.