Foreign of great Capital Here to talk about the fact we're almost at the end of the calendar year, we're about to start a whole new one and the overall economy. The overall stock market has a bunch of question marks around it. What's going on with monetary policy or rates going up? Are they going to go right up as much? I Mean we're recently hearing about Finally, we already knew it was in the tech sector, but now in the finance sector, they're even laying people off. It seems like we might be heading into a rough time.

and I am No, by no means a doomsday alarmist. But do you think they're right? Do you think they're overstating? And do you think they're understating it? So the people listening right now? the sectors you're interested in and your optimism or pessimism? where are you at? Like the medium to longer term view. Okay, so we'll take a step back from a I Always play the long game and the short game. So long term game going to be in the stock market forever.

Dollar Cost: Average: Good Times Bad times: I'm not smart enough to know exactly when that's going to happen right? So time in the market, not time in the market, just basic basic Finance 101 and investing 101. short term I mean you got to be on the lookout because you've got to be tactical and strategic with your portfolio so things don't look good. I'll be honest, they don't. Um, you know the jobs.

Market Uh, it looks like a lot of the jobs that are being added right now because we're still adding jobs are mostly in the lower income sector as a Services sector, but in the higher income sectors like manufacturing, those jobs are being lost on tech jobs. As you point out the financial sector. as you point out, those are places where people have higher discretionary income, can spend more and that's generally better for the economy if those people have more money because they can buy more things. But that's not what we're seeing.

These people are getting laid off. So I think you're going to start to see the unemployment rate go up. This is exactly what the FED wants though, because it's been too low for too long according to them, too much money in the economy, and so if it if it starts to nudge up which they think it will and it looks like it will, they will start to not be so aggressive with the rate hikes and we have another one coming up next week. We've had five 75 basis point increases in a row.

People are now saying it's probably going to be 50 base points next week. If it is, we might get a short-term rally into the end of the year. What they call a Santa Claus rally. Um, but it doesn't look good Commodities Are down huge across the board, oils down a lot.

I Think it's down 30 or 40 dollars just in the last six months. That's generally not a good indicator. Copper, which is, you know, the PHD in economics is down huge too. Uh, so yeah, things don't look good in the short term.

and I think you're going to start to see in Q1 Q2 Earnings take a hit. Um, and so you know for me tactically right now: I'm not putting risk on I've taken quite a bit of risk off I've actually sold all my crypto Holdings in the last 30 days or two reasons number one: I wanted to lock in a tax loss I was down on most of my Holdings But secondly, I was concerned I hold a lot of my crypto in ETF in Canada that has a custodian that may or may not be in some trouble. So I want to speculate I want to speculate on the industry. but I don't want to speculate as to whether my crypto is going to be available tomorrow.

So I'm going to teach myself how to self-custody So I'm going to be buying back my crypto after 30 days. but I'm not investing in any new private deals I'm not really buying small Caps or micro caps I'm staying large cap liquid. Things that you know do well if the economy does well or doesn't like waste. Management is one of my big Holdings a lot of the financials.

the banks I've been adding to those so it's just right now. Uh, time to you know, buy companies good quality companies on the cheap. but I would never, never ever recommend exiting the stock market by any means. This is a long-term game and you got to be in it for the long run.

I Like that now. I Don't want to let the cat out of the bag, but for those of you who don't know one of the largest financial sub Stacks right here. Make sure you're checking out if we are looking at the year in debut. Can you explain some of the highlights and also low lights of just your speculation link where you got it really right and then maybe one where like For whatever reason the thesis fell apart.

Yeah yeah. 22 with some level of optimism like most of them most of the industry did because we came off such a high on 2021. So much money in the stock market in the economy I Thought it was going to hold up for longer. but you know one thing we always have to remember about the stock market and investors.

Uh, they look for 12 to 18 months at all times and so when it looked, you know the FED is raising rates aggressively. What does that mean? money's getting sucked out of the economy. It means everything's going to get more expensive. Companies borrowing is going to get more expensive so they're not going to be able to do as much of it.

Real estate across the board. By the way, real estate right now looks very scary. Um, there's a lot of like funds that are looking like they're you know, gating. um, redemptions like some like Blackstone which have typically never done this.

so that's a little bit scary. But yeah, I would just say that I Didn't anticipate that the market would go down this this fast. Even though the data still looked good, the economic data this year still looked good. It's just that the market is looking forward and you always have to remember that it's always going to move ahead of the data.

So yeah, that's what I would say about I I Very much appreciate that and obviously thank you for your time. And here's to see what ends up playing out in 2023. Hopefully all of our portfolios are a little bit more green? Absolutely. I Appreciate it.

Thank you.