Just because it's easy. but that don't make it better in our lives. Foreign can we take it back In real life? Oh brother oh brother I'm brother oh brother Ahoy me mateys I'm stealing that from Robbie Who is literally just saying oh boy. So hope everyone's having a good one.

Hope you are ready to cross it. Today it is. Friday non-farm payrolls coming out in a mere five minutes. Yesterday was a horrible treading day at least the way I was trading it because I didn't have a fun time.

So I'm hoping today's a little bit better. Fully expecting some volatility, fully expecting some whips off because it's non-farm payroll day. It's not. It's just it.

It is what it is like. that's going to be the day. The day is going to be nuts. So I hope you guys are absolutely ready to crush it before we get into all that I want to share a dream that I had because like, you know how sometimes like dreams are supposed to mean something and you're I don't know whether it's something going on in your life if you're supposed to I don't know.

take away a more important message from it I want you guys to tell me a little bit about what this dream means. So um I was outside and it was sunny and for some reason my scalp got really really burned my scalp and then some. I Don't know. dreams are weird because they're non-linear but some time passed and then I was getting my hair cut and they're like oh wow, your scalp's really burned.

You should take care of that. I was like okay and then a couple of days pass and it kind of scabbed over. It was like this brown black like my whole scalp. It was like really thin.

so like it was like the color of the scab but like picture like super thin, almost like a plastic. and then I like started to peel it off and it came off and then I also lost like most of my hair. so I don't know. Like all my hair became very blotchy as I pulled this off because of my scalp sunburn.

What do you guys make of that? Do you think that's anything profound? going bald? It's a sign to shave your head. Interesting interest. Gross. I I just didn't there.

Maybe there's a better message here. Maybe there's not a better message there. I'm kind of asking you guys, you're too white. did I eat it I did not eat it I I Actually the emotion within the dream was uh, like a lot of concern.

That means go short old age New York City Air is corrosive I think we're we're getting somewhere I think we're really honing in. it's due to being a bag of mayo. Um, bad trades. That's all.

Definitely going bald. Zombie life means you're too white. burn my scalp so bad the skin wouldn't wipe off. It might mean that means Clint Eastwood is the next moon Lizard Man President and you're the first mate and he's gonna burn your feet.

These are all very very valid interpretations of the dream of random neurons firing when I am sleeping. So I very much appreciate it. Thank you thank you thank you YOLO your whole account on calls today I don't know if I'm feeling that. Was it a manscape ad that was not a manscape ad no scalp trades today.

Ooh muffin pics please. Oh my. God Why did I just say that? Um, what a wild day. But anyway, it might mean that I can't believe I just read your name out without thinking about that at all.

No scalp trades today. you know, as concerning as your username is I think that might be some good advice. we doing bits Now this isn't a bit. This is literally just the dream I had last night and I found it concerning enough that I wanted to bounce it off All of you.

Try apple cider vinegar instead of aloe Vera. The vinegar will take this thing out of the burn and cut down on shed well. I Want to clarify that my scalp isn't actually burned. This all happened in the dream.

Do you see this head of hair I have going on? I mean I Don't know if it's gonna last forever, but there's no UV Sun Penetration to the scalp. It's just. this is some thick. This body isn't just thick, This head of hair is pretty thick too.

So I want to clarify that in real life, like right now, my scalp is not burnt, but within the dream it was burned just to get the story I Don't want I Don't want tabloids picking this up I Don't want page six to picking this up Matt has a burned scalp. It's just simply not true in real life. Super thick head of hair. Uh I just don't want there to be any confusion on this.

But anyway, now that you guys have successfully kind of knocked me off my game today, it's time that we speed up and listen to the Jobs report. Expectation: 225 Let's see if we come in hot or cold. Chief Investment strategist and portfolio manager at Hightower Advisors as well as a CNBC contributor. Let's get going.

Just a couple of schmoes of Steve Leesman and uh, you guys got anything I can say about you that that would rate with these other people I Don't think so do we. At least when you you like the Dead pretty good fly fisherman Spies four, Three Nine sixty is that 439 85 popping a little bit right now? Um, we are Lavornia I Can't wait to talk to you I know I'm looking forward to it because you gotta! You gotta convince me that you've been right. Let's see. Let's see.

Let's see. Let's see. Um I Don't know what you think Rick But we're gonna know soon enough whether ADP is any good. What are the numbers please? Yes, everything's going up.

Initial reaction is positive above yesterday 109 000 on the no no, did not come in hot June Expectations: Nine thousand that's coming in low this level and I have to go on the way. Remember bad economic news. Good for the stock market is popping for a reason 268 000. interesting.

We look at manufacturing payrolls, they were up 70 80 reported yesterday, dropped from 3.7 and we all know that was the highest since Feb of 22. that was last month to 3 3.6 so it moderated. but it's definitely unemployment down 1.4 that we had in April And of course we understand that is something that the Fed's going to pay close attention to. Average hourly earnings up four tenths of one percent higher than expected matches April You have to go all the way back to July to see it up more.

When it was up five tenths that was July of last year and if you look at average hourly earnings year over year, they were up a whopping 4.4 percent. This is the new metric against inflation for many. it's the wage component up 4.4 percent each year over year people you have to go to February Market popping on the news. So even though it's come down a bit it was five percent in November of last year.

it is still definitely above the last several months which was 4.3 4.4 and 4.3 as you see, so we're hovering at that zone. and if we look at hours, worked 34.4 a tenth hotter than both what we're looking for and what was in the rear view mirror. Labor force participation rate: 62.6 It remains exactly on top of last month and 62.6123 fourth month in a row. And finally, the underemployment rate known as U6 6.9 percent.

It pops two tens, six point nine percent. You have to go all the way back to August of last year to find a higher number. At seven percent, interest rates have dropped drop drop drop dropped. Matter of fact, prior to the number, we're hovering in a two-year around five percent.

Now it's at 492. 492. And if we look at the 10-year it was hovering around 406, it's now hovering at four percent. And we continue of course, to monitor the equity markets.

Usually when interest rates go down, the equity markets go up and they did pop a little bit, but they're kind of right back to where they were. We need to continue to monitor equities, have a lot on their plate, and just to summarize some things very very quickly here: guilt yields. A 10-year guilt in UK is up nearly 30 basis points this week to the highest level since 08. Boone yields are up 24 basis points this week our ten years yesterday.

But here's the rub: You know that two-year note yield that reached up towards 511 yesterday it failed to close above its March high yield close it was March 8th I believe at 5.07 percent as a technician. Wow, if we fail to close above that I have to be trading intraday through it, especially on Friday a weekly closed right yesterday. They start to look like a double top. Is that horribly bearish? No, but it's something to pay close attention to because many believe we're going to start to see steepening.

not necessarily driven by the Jordan, but maybe driven by one elongated treasury which may get stickier as we start to see the FED get non-farm payrolls coming in lower than expected Tuesday unemployment coming in also, probably weeks, almost a month Joe And the Gang back to you. Thanks! Rick We're going to bring in the rest of our paper I Just want to say let's see what the Market's up on it Pretzel saying I want a crappy number which is you know you don't want people out of work and I wanted ADP to be wrong, right? and I said 160 was what I was hoping for and I didn't really think it would be 160. but if you had my revisions at the revisions in, it's even worse than that. It's even worse than in a once.

This just took off a hundred and thousands of the prior months. This is crazy though. Our entire throw away everything we thought we knew yesterday all of a sudden I wouldn't throw everything away. Let me let me introduce you.

do your thing. Betsy Uh is is here. Uh, Lavornia's here Stephanie Rick and Steve you so you're feeling you know I Just said to you, Are you going to be able to justify all of your uh your your sort of dovish Joe When the Fed added 400 billion of liquidity following the Svb debacle and then the treasury with the FED effectively backstopped all the bank depositors that was backdoor QE and that stabilized things. and then with the debt deal, the treasury general account having gotten run down but then the reverse Repo facility now offsetting that rebuild.

there's a lot of liquidity in the market and that's improving sentiment Lifting equities, higher monetary policy will work. Monetary policy will slow things. This data these data suggest we're moving in the direction of weaker activity. We're not there yet, but we are going to weaken and the FED is going to regret as much tightening as they're doing.

But we're not there yet. Let's see you. Saw the reaction yesterday. You know the 10-year and the two-year both Bitcoin acted like yeah, this is the most Market Honestly remark we have we've ever seen.

Do we just forget, Is it a new day above? yes it is crazy. Well I mean I think we've had the hottest labor market that we've ever seen. Uh, but I think that the key word there is had Um, it's clear that the labor market is starting to slow. We look across all these industries.

We're seeing industries that lost jobs last month. So we're seeing negative, uh, a negative handle on some of them. Uh, job growth was 149 000 in the private sector. Uh, so even weaker.

And here's a fun fact of 167 000 of the jobs out of this month went to women. so women took most of the jobs. Uh, you know that's a one month fluke. but I've heard it here.

First, women are stealing their jobs coming from. They're coming from the kinds of industries that women tend to work in like Health Care uh and education services. according to CNBC women are stealing their jobs Stephanie Am I Wrong Do you feel whipsawed after yesterday? And then I mean the average? It is definitely some lip sauce I guess but this is like compared to yesterday it's a totally different feeling. Now it's almost as if someone in the market knew because they were buying it off.

It is the entire afternoon. we know from other facts News definitely didn't leak or anything. No way would that ever happen. Remains pretty strong I mean ADP fine.

If it wasn't what they ever literally numbers, it still was double the expectations. Challenge your great job! Cuts Fell 49 percent Initial claims The four-week moving average is 263. Not near close to a recession which would be 350 to 375. the jolts numbers.

There's still 1.6 jobs available for one unemployed person, and even in the Ism Services Read yesterday, the employment numbers got back into expansion, so nothing really changes from this number today, especially given that wages while they are coming down to Joe's point, we're not there yet. We're nowhere close where the FED wants it to be. and I know the job numbers and the wage numbers and the inflation numbers are backward looking. but this is the Fed we have.

They're a backward looking fed and so they are going to continue to tighten. Is it is it one? Is it two? Is it three, But we are. The good news is we are in the eighth or ninth inning. In terms of higher rates and higher, higher uh, tightening if you will, rates are going to stay high, but I don't think going to cut anytime soon.

So Rick your your whole Treatise is New Life breathed into your nutrients. You think we get one, two, or three or you you think we we could stay, We could get zero. Well, I'll tell you what. Joe Here's something fascinating.

There's no doubt the entire panel realizes that this number was not too hot in any respect. But yet, if I do my quick math on fed fund Futures they haven't moved. They're basically around 88 chance of a quarter point increase in the July Market's coming down a little bit but still holding the game move for the September meeting despite this number. I think that the Federal Reserve most likely is going to go Joe So I'm probably going to be wrong and I will send Steve his cheeseburgers.

but I think in nine months to a year when we go back I might have enjoyed eating the cheeseburger, but I think I'll have a bigger smile because I think the FED will have regretted maybe the last quarter point cut. although in the grand scheme of things to go from zero and a quarter to add another quarter to it at this point probably doesn't matter. There's one other thing that I find really important here: Joe And that is consider the technicals going on around the globe and we heard Stephanie Link one of the best Traders We we all know Stephanie has a a resume that's a mile long and she's correct. It's hard to discern looking at current data that were recessionary bound, but here's what I say.

You know what? We're only one citizen in this global economy we're all stuck with after Covid and whether you look at Germany whether you look at Taiwan if you look at all some of the previous engines of growth, whether it's in Europe whether it's in Asia they are slowing and that contagion is certainly not going to benefit the US much longer post covet. What a normalization that we monitor. but I am so glad Cam that if I had a big position in equities I'd stick with it. However, I still think that you need to definitely keep the nose sniffing for any telltale signs of the global Dynamics affecting U.S economy and more of a slowing process.

That means you you moved around a lot. I Got one thing on my it says Squawk Box you heard it from Rick years or something. Um May was what 3 39. we were so excited about that 339.

Where is it? What was it really? what? Uh, hold on, hold on I Think we got a little insight on uh, but this is how Rick stays on top of his game. Um, and I just want to get that number up here. Um, it has Leisure and Hospitality up just 29 000. I Don't know if I believe that number has Rick been in the White House lately legal adjustments because it cuts both ways.

Sometimes when it's stronger, Yes, but I I Think that the Leisure and Hospitality businesses do perhaps a lot more hiring than maybe indicated in the survey. Uh, other sectors are kind of all over the place. We did have a a strong hiring in uh in Education Health Services I Think the FED is going to welcome this number. Ultimately, it shows what Joe was talking about, even though which was this gradual Market turn is almost the opposite of what you were talking about yesterday.

Jobs with lower wage inflation Less Jobs certainly turn a little bit there. That's the key to the normal vomiting excuse are holding they believe they need to see is not holding that pot. Step back once again. Liquidity still Bitcoin turning dollar turning conditions to the by the population to the one good number one bad number Unemployment going down.

Not so good for the stock market. which is this at least based on current monetary policy. Time to see which way the market and the current right now 100 000 number is uh, weaker than we thought we dodged a bullet. What is this in terms of it? I Think the strength could be a little bit? Yeah, they've gone from basically an unchanged 20.

they're now trying to stealing my math right. Barn Burner Fire 20 Definitely understand I've got 23 percent. remember Rick and I have um, uh, 42 down from say 48 or 47. uh on November here.

So the the first, the first Hike's still a lock around 90 and there's going to be a debate over whether or not that second one is needed I Don't think the FED will do it. if it's not needed it. We'll do it if it is yo Rick's pest. The last inflationary period we had was the early 80s.

Oh, what's remarkable is if you look at the data in real time, we printed nearly 400 000 jobs in July of 81. that was the exact same month that the unemployment rate bottom for the site. definitely. Elizabeth we're in reception in August So yes or no on this person being a lizard, that's very important.

And I did notice the temp hiring was down 13 000 I think it's down 601 80 on the airplane, not a real person. That's construction because that's where you've got the whole body thing between activity and hiring. Yeah, he's talking about. which is which is why wages seem higher.

Even though hiring is lower, the earnings numbers are generally cover only a subset of the overall population. The compensation data and productivity which are based off of the tax filings, showed a big down revision from about four and change to three. I would focus on those broader measures of of laboratory Betsy's got to fit you got? wrap it all up Betsy Confirmed. What do we take away from from this? All these uh, realize that you know this isn't actually a great number.

This is a number that we is something we can sustain. We can't sustain that in three 400, 500 000 jobs a month. We need to see this survive. I'm getting.

but I feel like she's fun. We're gonna have a soft landing. Something about her and like at first you might think no way really soak in her vibe. I bet this lady is a fun.

Train is rolling. She's the kind of person like Eight Pictures competition. Really? Okay, um I'm a fan. Yeah, have the burger because it's a good thing Now because of the carbon footprint.

That's why you have a you have carbon footpods while you're eating those cow farts and then if you eat the burger then you just add to it All right? Uh, everyone. thank the burger down. Thank you. Uh, pick your own.

yeah, what's your own? So it's just yeah. You guys get the point. Climate crisis? Do you guys get the point? Recap: If you're just joining right now, today is the first Friday of the beautiful month of July Why is July a beautiful month? Well, it's the month of my birthday. that's important.

but anyway, it's the first. Friday So we got the unemployment report. The unemployment rate came in a little bit later than expected. Uh, well, depending on it was 3.7 last time, the expectation according to market Watch this time was 3.6 It came in at 3.6 but some other sources were expecting 3.7 so it was either inline or a little bit lighter than expected.

So if it's in line, it's neutral. A little bit lighter than expected. That's a good economic report which is not so good for the stock market, at least based on current monetary policies. So that's one thing to know.

Now if we look at the non-farm payroll. Expectation was 240, came in at 209, so that is not good for the economy, which is actually based on current monetary policy. Good for the stock market, so that's a little interesting. And then if we look at hourly wages, uh, came in at 0.3 or it was expected at 0.3 Came in at 0.4 so a little bit higher than expected.

Not so good because remember, we're trying to slow it down. Hourly wages year over year expectation was 4.2 but it actually came in at 4.4 So similar to the month over month reading, the year over your reading came in a little bit hot. So this it's it's a mixed bag. It's actually a strange report.

So if you look at the non-farm payroll I would argue that the number was bullish for the market. but then if you look at hourly wages, month of month, and year over year, I would argue that it's actually bearish. and then depending on what source you trust the most for the predicted unemployment rate, it's either neutral or actually a little bearish. Um, so that's strange.

Definitely. I would argue mixed bag. We saw the market pop on the news right now it's actually coming down. it's continuing to sell at the moment.

Uh, I would argue from like a technical standpoint, we're also kind of in a mixed dangerous Zone Uh I Want you to know in terms of seasonality? today does favor the Bulls but it's not a guarantee. The Bulls have won this day 60 of the time. The profit factor is 2.45 as in every dollar put on the table for this individual day at open, getting out at close and every dollar put on the table has returned two dollars and 45 cents. The buys is bullish, but once again this is.

this is a hit rate of three out of five times. It's not like I'm guaranteeing it. this is the seasonality of the day. Speaking of which, if you're not a member of Goonies become one Macquares.locals.com It's in the description of the video Macross.locals.com I Give you this seasonality for free.

There's also a premium version It's ten dollars a month I intentionally priced it very cheaply. Uh, I think you're gonna enjoy it? Check it out. You can get a free month by putting in the code goonie but anyway, this is even in the free version. so if you're premium or free, you're going to get this.

Uh, just in case you're trying to swing a position. I Also did post the seasonality for Monday Monday is very neutral. very choppy. so I just want to get that out there in case you're like, well, hang on.

If I get into today, what can I expect in terms of seasonality on Monday Monday July 10th it's it's a neutral day. You're not being, you're not fighting headwinds, you're not being supported by Tailwinds It's kind of a just a bust of a day. It was neutral, sold off a little bit, recovered back to neutral. So like just I want you guys to all know about that So as of right now, the market right at 8 30 popped.

We got above yesterday's high at 4 40, 10. liquidity grab smacked. Honestly, I wouldn't be the most surprised if that opened. It sells off and does a liquidity to grab at the low.

We've seen crazier things happen. Yesterday was an absolute chop Fest today. I Wouldn't be surprised if it's an absolute absolute chop. Fest Maybe, well, not.

Maybe. Definitely worthwhile to pay attention to what's going on with the dollar. Remember, the dollar and the overall Market do have an inverse relationship. It's not perfect.

It's not like every single time there's a red bar in the dollar, there's a green bar in the spot. but they generally drift in opposite directions. So uh, right now the dollar is coming down a bit and as you see here, let me get it on the same time frame so you can kind of see it. Uh, dollar vomited.

Well, hang on. Let's go to the one minute I'm still on the wrong time frame. Dollar vomited at 8 30 right when the Spy popped and now the dollar started to bounce a little bit. And that's exactly when the Spy sold off.

And now that it's making a decision, you're seeing a little bit of a decision being made in the Spy very important to track track. Excuse me the dollar Index dxy Dixie is the US dollar against the Euro. It's against a grouping of other currencies, but the main weighting is the Euro. Then it goes the Yen.

Then it goes the pound. Then it goes to other bullshit currencies that I don't care about. But anyway. Uh, so track the dollar.

watch what's going on there. but the spy and the queue is kind of tracking perfectly together Bitcoin Popped from 30.1 000 all the way up to 30.3 Came all the way back down. Now it seems like it's on its way back up. I Want to clarify from a technical standpoint and from a catalyst standpoint.

As in the news the unemployment report, it does seem like very choppy mixed bag scenario. I Could very much see a breakout I Could very much see a breakdown from a seasonality standpoint. Today clearly does favor the Bulls. So right now I'm actually really happy I didn't carry any position.

Um, if you watched me at all yesterday, you know I didn't have the best time trading. Um, yes, I made money. It was a profitable day, but it just wasn't solid trades. So I decided to just scrap everything and come back either today or Monday Fresh So if I see an opportunity today, obviously I'm going to strike, but I don't feel like any particular pressure to do anything I Kind of want to see how things are going to play out.

Also, remember upon reviewing all the other employment report days over the past eight. Um, I have the odds written down here If we look at the last eight unemployment report days, out of the last eight, four of them were Gap UPS Four of them, fifty percent were Gap UPS Six of the eight were from their opening of the day to the clothes were green, so obviously that's going to include some of the Gap UPS There was one Gap up that ended up going red, but there was four Gap UPS As in we opened up above the high of the previous day. We're actually not that far away from it if we open above 4, 40, 10. Yeah, that would be another Gap up.

But the other metric. the six out of eight is just from wherever we open to where we close green. So six out of eight? or if you're looking for a percentage, um, what is that? Three out of four so 75 75 percent were green and fifty percent were a gap up. So I just that's the last eight.

And obviously history doesn't really repeat in the stock market, but the saying is that it often Rhymes So something to know. It kind of is in line with seasonality today. If we look at it from a technical perspective, you not the best Hammer camel. but hey, Hammer not a camel candle.

If we get above the high of 4410 and hold I could see a very realistic upside Gap Filter 441.90 I mean that's the low from Wednesday July 5th 441 90. I mean that is kind of an easy setup of a play, but I'm not necessarily fully sold on it I Want to see the momentum I Want to know if there's going to be like a hardcore Market Switcher Rule the old Kansas City Shuffle Beat sometime between 10 30 and 11 30 like we saw yesterday. like we've been seeing so much. but uh, there's definitely some craziness going on.

So be prepared for whipsaw. And how could you be prepared for whipsaw? Okay, be a little bit more mindful of your risk, be a little bit more mindful of your leverage. Understand that today. Yeah, there could be fake outs in the upside.

The downside could be the classic Seek and Destroy do a liquidity grab like a buy stop and then go to the other side to sell stock like it could be a wild wild amount of things. So just be careful here as of now: I Have no position I have no live position in Futures I Have no live position and options. Obviously, if that changes, you folks will be the first folks to know. So just wanted to put that all out there.

That's kind of like the foundation of the day Before we move on show a little bit of love to Streepy. Streepy is the sponsor of today's stream. You've heard me Pitch them before. I Absolutely love this product.

It's a robo advisor so what can you do it? First of all, you download it. It's free to download. You could get it on your iPhone you could get it on your Android you just go to streetpeat download it when you're downloading it the very first page put in the code mat right here. We actually have done so many signups for them.

They gave us our own little landing page so if you want to check it out, um I mean it's pinned to the top of chat it's in the description of the video but put in the code Matt and you'll get a 30-day trial. So you might be thinking, well, hang on what? It's free to download what is the trial for. Well, you can buy and sell stock the way you normally would that. That's it's commission free.

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Check it out. Check it out. Check it out. It is free to download and if you use the code map, you can get a one month free trial of all the strategies and also building your own.

I Highly, highly, highly recommend it. Actually, all of mine are in the green right now. I use some of the ones that are pre-built from them and then even my own I have honey badger and I have the value Hunter I'm in there in their bond one and I'm also in their top government contract recipients one and also I'm in the one that mimics U.S Congressional Stock Trading Yes, the there is one that whatever Congress is reporting. whatever they're buying, you're buying whatever they're selling, you're selling.

You can get that through here. I Highly recommend it. Check it out. Use the code Matt When you are signing up, it should be on the very first page.

If you have any issues with it, reach out to me DM Me: message me on MySpace Send me a carrier pigeon, do whatever you need to, but I'm more than how happy to try to help you out with it. So yep, show a little bit of love to shrie and obviously shout out to the street B Team for sponsoring today's stream payrolls report Friday likely to show jobs Market that is still hot. Well, that was wrong Mr Jeff Cox Uh, they expected 240 came in at 209. uh I guess CNBC was expecting 3.6 which came in in line, but hourly wages month over month and year over year came in a little bit hot.

Traders brace for U.S Payrolls with global yields at 15 year high hot US Labor Market leading to increased rate hike bets. As of now, it's pretty much a done deal that when we get to Wednesday July 26th we're getting another rate hike. In fact, there's a 95 chance of it. So currently we're at five percent right here and this is the chance of going to 5.25 It's gonna excuse me I Got scared there for a second.

It's gonna happen. Just accept it that that's going to be our life. When we get to the end of July it's gonna go up. Mortgages are probably going to end up popping above eight percent.

This: This is the life we live in right now. Interest rates are going higher. The question is is how much higher when we get to September 20th when we get to November 1st when we get to December 13th All the conclusions of the next three Fomc meetings after the July one are we going another one: Are we going from 5.25 to 5.5 Or are we just going to chill at 5.25 I don't know, your guess is as good as mine. As much as I call and text and FaceTime Jerome Powell he.

he just won't let me know, he just he. He won't let me in on the big old secret so that's a little bit of a bummer. but I don't know I'll take him out to the bar or something, get him a little drunk, and I'm sure he'll spill the beans on what the fed's doing. and as soon as I find out, I will let all of you know.

So yes, with um, all jokes aside, with the unemployment rate right now at 3.6 it's too low. We know from the set the summary of economic projections that the FED members are attempting to get unemployment up an entire percentage. Point going from about 3.6 to roughly 4.5 is their target and you might be thinking whoa, whoa whoa, why do they want unemployment to go up? That means more people don't have jobs, less people with jobs doesn't seem good. Well, that's one kind of brutal hardcore way to slow down the economy is to make sure people apparently don't have jobs.

Um, I argue. One way we could slow down inflation is cutting government spending, but they don't want to hear that. they don't want to hear that discussion. Biden doesn't return my calls anymore I'm like, hey, inflation's pretty bad.

We could fix it by not putting trillions of dollars into the economy and also just misplacing billions of dollars in our efforts to apparently support. Ukraine That seems like a good way to slow down the economy, but no one really wants to talk about that one. No one. everyone.

Everyone apparently thinks that the way to fix inflation is exclusively from screwing over the people within the U.S Opposed to a government just spending less money? Um, which is strange. Feels a little bit strange if you ask me, but hey, that's the world we're in right now. Uh, some individual stock news Medis Threads Apps draws Millions Seeking a Twitter alternative I'm on threads Matt Underscore course it's in the description of the video. Follow me.

This might be the Twitter killer. It might not be the Twitter trailer. I'm still on Twitter I'm also on threads. be there.

Join me. Follow me. I'll follow you. We'll have a fun time.

Let's make the stock community over there and hopefully all the dipshits that are on Twitter stay over there and don't come along I Don't know I am reading concerning things about how much data meta AKA Facebook is scraping from you. Apparently it's horrific, but I I'm not supportive of it. but I'm already so interconnected in all social media that I assume every single government in the world personally has my data morally. Philosophically I am not supportive of it I Want to be very clear but just the way I've interacted on the interwebs world, there is no piece of my data that like isn't known by every single World Government even World governments that don't have internet still probably have my data.

So I I Don't think it's gonna really change much, but apparently already over 50 million signups? How crazy is that? Are you surprised that it's being received? Received an indication of how sustainable it will be, how sustained the interest could be on this new app. I Definitely knew that there was tent of demand for a Twitter alternative I Don't think I expected it to grow that class and I think that that's up some into two things. First of all, that's true I did want to find uh, the Twitter but second of all that was it the desks that the address is connected to Instagram We've met a huge leg up in creating a network here. It feels very much awesome when you go to thread the same public figures, personalities, celebrities and influencers brands that are on Twitter and on Instagram Dude, they were really pushing Gordon Ramsey's account.

how expensive of being an influential place to post which I think is what was missing from a lot of the other Twitter copycats that have sprung up since Elon Musk took over. Yeah. Sarah I Have to say you know, as someone who's like I don't need another social media platform. The onboarding process was so smooth that you know I was almost just kind of just giving away.

So you know horrifically, sign ups does not necessarily translate to active subscribers or users, right? Is there kind of a this might be a stupid question, but do you think this is their actual names? Sydney San Francisco New York Because if so, that's kind of some weird names. a window that Threads Meta really needs to take advantage of to be able to convert those into longer term users. I Think you have to see this. this network continue to grow and then the most important thing is going to be building.

The Habit The social networks have this initial surge of of interest and excitement, but really, it's going to be about when you decide my personal life over a video of one of your segments. Do you click on on Instagram First, Do you click on Twitter First you click on threads first I Mean having no, those are locations I Don't think so I Think that's their names for our communication building. It's pretty sure that's their name. Still needs to do that in order to make this.

That's why it was under them. Your location would be the internet really big. um, shrinking when people just get in a little smacked. Again, what people want the product to turn into all the features and you guys feeling embarrassed that users are requesting? I Was gonna say is this a final look What sort of features could we expect and no, this is this is the Bare Bones version and I think that um, Instagram is working around the clock to try to make it better.

I You know I Talk with users today. People really want better search and they want to be able to toggle between accounts. They want to be able to schedule posts, especially if they're professionals on on these apps. I mean obviously there's never things direct messages Um, you know, being able to to use threads without having it linked to an Instagram all sorts of asks on the wish list.

but for now, people are just happy to have an alternative Network whatever you say San Francisco Whatever you say. All right. just want you to know. At 11 30 today, there is one more thing going down.

Fed President Goolsby is doing a TV interview once again 11 30 A.m ET Today, the Chicago Fed President doing um a TV interview Alibaba surges on report China to unshackle ant with fine china likely to announce 8 billion won fine, Lifting scrutiny bolsters hope of private. Enterprise Revival So Ant Group is a was gonna be like a blockbuster um Financial IPO and they didn't allow them to go through with it like this whole ant. IPO has been. um I don't know.

somewhat hindering Alibaba For years now they very much wanted to release it. It was going to be one of the biggest IPOs was going to be crazy but then the Chinese the CCP kind of got involved and they said no, no no no no brother, you're not going to do that but now now it might. it might do it I don't know something to pay attention to uh I haven't traded Baba in years now. but for the Baba traders in here I Just want to bring this to all of your attention.

Uh China hits Alibaba affiliate ant group it's 985 million fine for violating various regulations, but maybe that's the end of it. So anyway, something to pay attention to if you're trading or investing in Baba Five things to know before the stock market bill goes Diggity Ding ding ding today Friday July 7th Well well well giving back and this isn't really talking about charity, it's talking about the fact that the market did Pop came back a little bit, try to pop potential double top here and then we got smack so time will tell. I think if we go below 438, that's a little bit of a warning shot I think if we go below 437, that's a a warning Cannon shot and then obviously if we end up cracking below 431, that's just like being invaded by an alien civilization of and all they do is warn you like that's how serious that warning would be. So a little bit of concern below 438 37 gets a little bit more serious below 437 and it's It's super super duper serious below 431.

those are the downside levels. I'm watching on the Spy now. if we get above basically 440, yeah, then I'm just watching the upside Gap fill at 442 and then above that if it keeps going I'm watching 444. those are my upside levels.

The former group is obviously going to be my downside levels right now: I Don't have the biggest bias on the day I Know seasonality does favor the Bulls, but if we learned anything from reviewing the most recent unemployment report days, quite a bit of volatility. Quite a bit of volatility, so just be a little prepped. be a little prepped. Island Reversal Trend Change Yeah, this people I see on Twitter are really calling this out right here.

This is kind of considered to be an island top, so yeah, that's not the best sign. That's a little bit bearish, but you could also fairly call this out right here as a hammer candle, which would be bullish. So um, I'm not saying that one charting pattern is stronger than the other. I Think as time goes on, we are getting closer and closer to a pretty serious sell-off whether five, seven, ten percent, something like that.

I'm not calling for doomsday, but I do believe the Market's overvalued I Think this is far too extended I Think there's going to be some sort of pullback? Uh, you might agree, you might disagree. Um I would like for it to happen and I would like for it to be a beautiful Trend Because those nice beautiful trends like you know how we just have green green Green Well I would like to see a nice red red Red Red red. a trend that we could just ride and ride and not freak out too much about. like I'm I'm looking for a nice layup of a trade.

Something Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezies I Want a cup of coffee? and uh, what's what did my high school teacher always say? A cup of coffee, Slice of pie? ah what did he say He always when he wanted to say something was easy Cup a cup of coffee. It was cup of coffee, slice of cake, slice of pie, Cup of coffee. We always. we didn't make fun of them because we all kind of liked this thing.

but it's gonna be. It's gonna be a cup of coffee, Slice of pie. You know, a cup of coffee, slice of pie. one of those things.

cup of coffee, cup of coffee, slice of pie. So anyway, these are the levels: I'm watching. it's gonna be Easy Peasy Lemon squeezies. Uh I'm gonna charge one of you with making sure that I don't go on tilt today.

The way I almost did yesterday I'm very unhappy with yesterday now. don't be like but Matt you made money. Yes I made money but I made poor trades. So I basically just got fucking lucky.

So important thing to consider. the Dollar's starting to pick up strength. Obviously remember the dollar market moving inversely. Recently we've been seeing quite a bit of strength out of Apple currently at 191.

Uh, pretty much at yesterday's high. Apple has been basically saving the cues of the spy and the tech sector. Microsoft Also strong. Microsoft Coming below, its close.

just by a dollar. Not much. still put in a very, very strong day yesterday. Obviously, now that we're talking about threads and Twitter and blah blah blah.

maybe worthwhile to watch what's going on with. Meta Meta Actually sold off yesterday. Um, and we're pretty much right where it closed out. So definitely watching Meta I Actually think even though Meta I think in the long run will benefit off of threads.

Just my personal opinion: if you look at it in like any short to medium time frame, I think Meta's another one that's egregiously overextended. egregiously overextended. We still have a gap upside gaffle all the way up to 317, so please be mindful of that. But look at this rip.

from November to now, it went from 80 to 290. it added hundreds of percent to its market cap. This is. this is insane.

This is absolutely insane. So once again, I Still believe many things are overvalued right now if you took a medium time frame vantage point of the market. I'm not talking about day trading thing like that because on any given day anything can happen. But clearly we have a certain group of companies that they're just fundamentally overvalued.

They're they're p E ratio is absolutely insane. and I'm talking about what's going on with Apple: What's going on with Microsoft What's going on with Meta: What's going on with Nvidia What's going on with Google Amazon There's a lot of things that are overvalued, but just because they think they're overvalued, that doesn't necessarily mean they're coming down today. It means that I'm being a little hesitant. and I'm not just going to YOLO long into it.

but I'm I'm waiting I'm patient. Uh, obviously if I'm doing short-term stuff, if it's trending up, I'm going to play it. But in the back of my mind I still think things are looking a little bit toppy. that's my opinion.

We'll see if I'm right or wrong I just want to share my thoughts. obviously I'm 50 of the time I'm right 100 of the time. So please keep that in mind. It's not like I'm the All-Seeing Oracle of what's going on here.

we look at the 15 minute yesterday more morning we vomited. We had a hardcore bounce that made me want to rip my hair out. Maybe that's what my dream was about. Do you think I wanted to rip my hair out so bad because of this bounce yesterday that I had a dream about losing my hair? Maybe Maybe.

maybe. Um So at first when the report came out today at 8 30 we saw a pop. then it came down and it had a little bit of a lower pop and now we're seeing a bit of a weakness. but it is once again surprise surprise popping.

So just uh, I'm staying calm, cool, collected with it I Want to be very, very clear that in my opinion, my interpretation of the uh report we just got this morning that we all listened to with our boy Rick Centelli. It seems to me that it's a very much a mixed bag seems like a very evident mixed bag. Which means many days I attempt to not trade in the first 10 20 30 minutes. That will definitively be true today.

definitively be true today just because like I could see whips Galore and I just don't feel like I'm not in the mindset to get whipsawed today. so um, that's my opinion obviously. I'm not telling you what to do, just want to share my thoughts. obviously.

I would love to hear your thoughts. Speaking of which, things we have just over 15 minutes ago before that Bell does go ding ding ding ding. So as of now, now that we've covered all the major news of the day, you know the seasonality. You know what might be happening on Monday blah blah blah.

all that good stuff. Tell me, how are you feeling if you're feeling bullish or bearish, let me know if you're feeling bullish. Uh, maybe you just want to comment a B because bullish starts with B and then if you're feeling bearish, well I guess bearish also starts with a B so you could comment to B as well. So if you're feeling bullish or bearish, I'm just curious I'm collecting some data I want to see how good you guys are? Um, just let me know by hitting the B uh B for bullish and then if your bearish also hit, hit the B as well.

I see whips Galore Kinky Bat Oh Dustin you're gonna make me blush. Um I See, you guys are hitting the heart. but that's not really the B thing. Um B Okay, so Stormy's bullish.

but Jay's bearish. We have some bullish. We have some bearish. Jan is bearish.

Zero's bullish. Brian's bullish. Uh, big big bullish bull. Oh bullish and bearish.

You guys are going for the whip saw. interesting mate. Or maybe be okay you guys. We have a mixed crowd in here today.

Seems like you guys are leaning a little bit more bullish just by saying all seeing some of these bees come in. uh, interesting. What is with is this new on? YouTube I'm seeing like a bunch of Hearts fly I'm seeing a bunch of weird emojis come through I I Don't get what that? What is this for? You just can send emojis I'm just clicking on it. What happens? You could just you can just Spam emojis now I wonder if they thought about that before? You know.

Putting it live. Interesting, interesting, interesting, interesting. Uh. I Know it's a stupid reminder, but an important reminder nonetheless.

Destroy the like button. We are at 188 on YouTubes Let's run that up to 500 before the Market opens. It just makes me feel like I've achieved something with my life and we are at 61 on. Old Rumble Let's run that up to 250.

if you're watching right now, take a quick quick second and destroy the like. Uh, and actually, what's what's going on over here I've hi. There's two viewers on Kik who are my two viewers. Maybe I'll just hanging out with these people all day because there's two of them.

Speak Now or forever old. Speak Now Or forever. Was it Speak now, Forever. Hold your peace I Have heard that before, but I just realized now that you have to spell it P-i-e-c-e it holds your piece I would assume as in like your information like hold your peace, not P-e-a-c-e as in like you can't hold that because that's like kind of a state of mind thing.

Is it hold your peace, Speak now or forever hold your peace I Think it's P-i-e-c-e I Think that's what it is P-i-e I Think that's right. Brain Blast chat Chad Sorry Matt asked for it. there's a laugh Emoji When you make us laugh, is there a thumbs down Emoji when I make you hate me Is that how that one works? A thumbs down emoji I Feel like dude I just I hate this kid I Can't stand this kid right now or is that just the exit button when you're like, all right I'm Gonna Leave the Stream We're at 272. you guys are halfway there on YouTubes and YouTubes you guys can do it I have faith in you.

There's some murmurs, a lot of us streamers get together and some of these other streaming communities. they're like, you know what those Goonies man they just they don't have what it takes and I say hey don't you say that about The Goonies They do have what it takes and they're like I don't know man. Word on the street is is they don't know how to hit the like button and I say hey, you don't say that and then they say why are you talking like that That's not the appropriate way for a grown man to be speaking. um, hold your peace is to stay quiet.

Oh so it is P-e-a-c-e I Think the Emojis are kind of confusing people because I see people loving to spam this Emoji thing but I don't know if it I don't get what the Emoji thing does I don't even have the option to spam the Emojis oh it is P-e-a-c-e Dude, you guys are blowing my mind this morning. Blowing my mind. the Wimbledon's going down Day three of the Wimbledon You know I'm not a tennis player at all, but there is a show called Point Break on Netflix and I Love it I think it might have made me a tennis fan and now I'm a fan of the uh okay, you tennis fans are gonna have to help me out on this one. he's from Australia and he's like the bad boy of tennis.

Nick Kiragos Kiragos Nick Nick Nick Nick Kiragos Kiragos Okay here goes: I don't know I like them because a lot of people don't and I like to side with like the villain of tennis. uh I should probably know if he's playing in this or not. He's definitely the bad boy of tennis like he shows up in. um EGA this is the best girl tennis player at least at the point of filming the show I think she's from Poland and she is just like a tennis playing Terminator she just don't care, she plays and she destroys and she wins and then she goes home and I think she's like 21 22.

this one IGA in action third round today 8 P.M Yes I think she's the best girl player um I don't know if she's like all time best girl player but at least in current modern tennis she like kicks ass. Uh so she's pretty cool too. She's pretty cool too. Old lady told me to smile because I'm too pretty not to in the Chipotle line today.

This is the face I gave her. Why am I being served this one hour poo Oh I need more friends I need the market to open I Need something to do I need something to do Dude, his back is big shit man. uh what do we have going on? Are we missing any other wifey stole my IP sure Grandma Let's put you to bed. What else are we doing? Are we missing anything? I don't know if there's any other major missing news.

You know. you probably know. You know the unemployment report. You know the seasonality.

Uh, you know that Elon is now suing Zuckerberg over the whole man threads looks awfully awfully close to Twitter Uh, Metis Twitter competitor crosses 50 million users and that was last night Matt you should take up fishing. You seem like a kayak guy. Actually, just last weekend I went kayaking down the Delaware and it was a blast. Uh I haven't been fishing a while I mean I I have fish I'm not against fishing I probably should.

I should probably do something that allows my mind to just like kind of chill out and decompress. but what? I like to do? This is like kind of a secret from me and feel free to steal it if you want. um Steal My Fit I like to whenever I'm feeling like stressed and overwhelmed and like anxious I like to just to notch it up another level like I feel like when things are going bad I just have too much going on and it's just Like man like I can't take just like one more thing. uh I like to just make it worse and then that Lets me through retrospect appreciate how good I had it beforehand.

Um, so that's a little bit of a mental health Tip from me is if you think things are going bad, you should intentionally make it worse and then that will help you appreciate on a relative basis the time before when things weren't so bad, You will hear that phrase again before you say I Do go fishing in a kayak grind set. Yeah, double down take on more pressure. You know what they say. No diamonds, no pressure, no diamonds, No pressure.

If you want pressure, there better be diamonds around. If you want diamonds, they're also more vice versa. If you want pressure, you got to pressure up the diamonds. No diamonds, no pressure.

That's what all the leading stock traders of the world they know and they embody no diamonds. No pressure. If you're not, if you're not seeing diamonds, there's no pressure around. Go to the one second we can wait for the market open.

We're not like we came down a little bit just to give you guys a little bit of a I mean here was 8 30. it popped it up. seemed like a liquidity grab. They knocked it all the way back here.

Wouldn't be surprised if this was some sort of like order block. fair value Gap bullshit it probably is I mean I see one right there so not a bad snag at four, three nine, eight five, you ride this puppy all the way down, pops up again, probably once again tagging this order block I think some people are probably going short there comes back down uh I didn't trade it and even though I just made it sound really really really easy. uh if I tried that yesterday which I did try yesterday on the Futures Market my ass got handed to me so once again 50 of the time it works. 100 of the time you guys are just Matt you're not streaming in 440p resolution.

Uh, that seems to be problematic. Do I not look Crystal Clear Do things look a little bit messed up? because if so, well I don't think I could fix it Midstream I'd have to fix it in future streams is is the picture not looking good? You guys are at 3 42 and as Trex has pointed out, you have seven minutes left. You get some 157 of you need to step it up today. Boys Team Team: I'm talking to you.

Coach Cores is here. Coach Kors is here and you guys gotta, you gotta step it up you you got I'm being honest here. You gotta step it up If you want to win nine times out of ten, we would not win today. I I Should probably learn the miracle speech nine times out of ten, we would not win but today is our day.

Gentlemen, Something like that. Something along those lines looks fine. It's just not 440p in an option. You look like a bag of mayonnaise.

Oh so normal. Your audio sucks I got you on full blast. Uh I think that's a you problem because I'm coming in at negative six decibels which is, uh, the recommended. Audio Level for videos like I'm like perfectly perfectly hitting negative Six.

so that's that's a you thing. that's that's definitely a you thing. What platform do you use to trade? It depends a lot of my strategic strategy. AI Training has been done on Street Beat.

Lately my Futures Trading has been done on tradestation. My options trading has been done on Weeble Um, is that the type of trading you're curious about? Audio is fine. Audio is fine, Audio is fine. but see, none of you are saying audio is perfect which makes me feel like I could bring my audio to the next level.

It should be like crystal clear. Like if you shut your eyes and hat on your headphones, it shouldn't sound as if I'm like whispering in your ear. that's the microphone I paid for. They're like hey, do you want a microphone that's like fine and people will hear you and like whatever.

it's good quality or do you want it where your listeners like are really actually concerned that you're breaking and entering and you're speaking to them in their house slash apartment slash at their job directly in their ear. Uh, and I paid for the the latter I paid I paid for the one that makes it sound like I'm It's legally concerning how close it should sound to you. You guys have problems sometimes I think it's me with a problem and then I read this chat and I'm like oh no, it's definitely them with the problem and I'm the normal one uh Matt I sent you a DM on Twitter Goonies related. Oh okay, let's see if I can find it Sometimes my Twitter DMS are weird.

Uh, what is your name Bravo uh uh, is it how to calm an angry woman? That one is that you someone sent me a meme about how to calm an angry woman and it says are you on your period or something? Oh, that's messed up. Oh, that's a good one. That's like probably the best way to get stabbed. Apple levels please.

Yeah, you guys definitely have a problem. It's not me, it's you. It's not me. it's you.

If it ever loads, I'm still having a problem with trading View and how it takes forever to load. Uh, the levels Jesus I mean yesterday I got this downside. well a gap below and then it got the upside Gap though actually to 190 62. So if you did that at open it was at 189.84 That was A nice push.

Actually, this upside Gap was 190 62. Um, honestly, if it breaks above 192, yesterday's high and it can hold that I'd be looking for a return to 194 in the short term. but I still think that in the medium to long term and it is currently overvalued. And then obviously, if it breaks down below yesterday's low of 189.20 yesterday's low I would be personally looking closer to the realm of like one 8750 188 Something like that.

That's what I'd be looking at, but obviously it's going to be highly correlated with the spy and the queues. Like just these overall market indices: Uh so I'd be watching that I'd be watching that uh, Apple levels Gala Granny Smith Pink Lady Honeycrisp Ally I Think you have a point. you're not wrong. What's the play? I'd Open The play at open is sitting on your hands today.

I That's what I'm gonna be doing. You could do whatever you want and whatever you decide to do I Hope it makes you stupidly rich I Hope it makes you so rich that you don't even have time to watch me anymore because you're too busy doing Rich things like drinking pina coladas on an island I Hope that's how your play goes for you. I am I'm I'm pulling for that to happen. but I think today is gonna be like a fake out whippy type of a day.

Uh so I'm I'm waiting for my moment to strike. but hey, whatever you do, uh, whatever, whatever your bias is, just let me know and I'll support you before you ask me. Ah, is today gonna be bullish or bearish? Just first tell me your bias and I'm just gonna agree with you I think that's actually the best way to make Financial content creation is just to agree with everyone. So be please.

New Rule: Before you ask me a question, let me know what answer you want like in parentheses. put the answer and then ask me your question and I'll just Jack you up. I will support your bias. whatever it is, whatever it is, whatever it is.

So that's the new rule. Give me your bias in parentheses, then give me your question and all I'm gonna do is support your bias. Uh so there you go and on that news, the casino is open happy Friday Make money that that's the main message right there. It's honestly, just make money.

So congratulations Lenny New ball. What's up Brother? What's up? What's up Brother? What's uh, evil? Yes. Matt Will you marry me in parentheses? Yes. Hey I Have to say it.

that's your bias. It's gonna happen. Evil. it's gonna.

it's gonna happen. Dude I'm in the middle. well and by I'm in it I kind of mean my fiance's in it. but once I'm in it because I have to listen to her talk about it which I feel like is the same thing.

But my completely real fiance has been starting to plan our wedding and basically at the end of the day I get like a multi-hour update of the many hours she spent on it. and do you realize how many hours of work it takes to plan a wedding? Um I mean obviously the married and or divorced people in here understand it. It is no menial task like at all. It is a pain in the ass.

Uh, it. There's so many decisions that have to be made. It's stupidly expensive. Do you guys know how expensive weddings are? It's it's just the number just keeps going higher and higher and higher and everything I I shit you not.

And honestly the lady was awesome and I could see that she was really really good. and I I think she does uh, wedding planning for like people, way more wealthy, way more successful, way more everything than me. Dude, she gave us a which way is Tesla going up or down is going up. good thing I got out of those puts yesterday a planner.

This isn't for the wedding. This isn't for flowers. This isn't for photography. This isn't for a DJ This isn't for food.

This isn't for makeup or a dress or a suit. This is just for the person who helps you get your shit together. And once again, I'm prefacing this by saying she's probably one of the top in the world. So I get it, you know I respect the fact that she's close to Numero Uno if not Numero Uno um her quote her minimum minimum was 50k.

That's just for the planner and granted she was awesome I respected her work. but I looked at my fucking bank account I was like that's not going to happen and that's a hard no for me dog. and my reasoning is is it would financially ruin me. it would it would it would skip the marriage.

Uh, you can easily spend 40K in one day planning. Oh man. so I'm not having a fun time realizing how expensive weddings are. Um, not really a fun time at all.

That's where I'm at on that. Do you think if I talk about it enough like if I keep you guys updated on it. Does that count as a business write-off I was thinking about this last night. uh did I like just break the American tax system? if I talk about it enough with all of you, will that just be a part of like my brand? they're like Matt the trader and also the guy who talks about his fiance planning a wedding is that then a tax write-off? My point is is if the IRS questions al