Boy oh boy do we have a lot to talk about. My name is Matt I'm a degenerate Trader and this is your daily update of what in the heck happened in the world of the Mark It's the economy and we'll just say life in general for this update. I Want to talk about what's going on with the potential Biden impeachment I Want to talk about what happened at the Apple event, the unveiling, all the new products and prices and all that good stuff I Also want to give a little bit of a preparation for tomorrow because it's a CPI day. AKA In inflation day I was looking at all the data and I think I found a little bit of an anomaly that could potentially make us some money Before we get into all that.

obviously give me a little bit of help with the algorithm. Smash the like button if you enjoy this type of content and obviously don't forget to subscribe for today. Tuesday September 12th the NASDAQ closes lower by 1% Tuesday as Apple slides and Tech suffers Oracle sheds 133% I Don't know if you had time to look at the market today, but man oh man was it a bit of a blood bath. We have the overall Market down half a percent, the NASDAQ down in excess of 1% Apple getting hit almost 2% and overall it's just generically red.

In fact, the only thing that was green was oil which is now almost $90 a barrel obviously. I Want to break all of this down, but I also want to remind you that maybe just maybe it's easier to make money in this life than actually Trading in the market. Sugar Baby says she's made half a million traveling the world with her wealthy older clients. What am I doing? Why do I put in effort to learning about trading, investment, tracking the political seam, doing fundamental breakdowns, coming up with better strategies, coming up with better content when I can make almost half a million by just being a sugar baby, wa just just let me know where to sign up because folks I guess some people are playing this game of life on easy mode while the rest of us are just I Guess trying to figure out even normal or maybe some of us are on difficult mode just wanted to share that I don't know if it'll make you feel better.

Honestly, when I read it made me feel worse, but I wanted it to share it with you nonetheless. So let's actually move on. GOP House Speaker McCarthy endorses Biden impeachment inquiry. Now this is starting to get a little bit interesting I know with Trump we've heard about impeachments, we heard about indictments.

but now with Biden this is kind of the one of the first times that maybe getting a little bit of steam. And here's what Speaker McCarthy actually had to say about it. That's why today I am directing our House committee to open a formal impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden This logical Next Step will give our committees the full power to gather all the facts and answers for the American public. It's exactly what we want to know.

the answers now. I Don't want to get too down the political road because I'm by no means a political expert, but obviously you should pay attention to the world of politics because it could have a big impact on the economy. So I want to get your thoughts and your opinion. Is this a Witch Hunt or is there something legitimate here that Biden should be looked into? Obviously, let me know in a comment below.

Speaking of legal proceedings, literally as I'm filming this video, we just got a big alert coming from the World of Crypto. Check this out. Co-founder $4 billion Crypto Ponzi Scheme gets 20 years in prison Crypto Queen Partner remains at large Carl Greenwood Co-founder of the fraudulent Onecoin cryptocurrency was sentenced to 20 years in prison two decades. His partner known as the Crypto Queen on the FBI's top 10 most wanted list remains at large.

The massive pyramid scheme amass over 4 billion from millions of victims worldwide. According to the Doj, that's no small scale stuff. We're talking about $4 billion. That's billion with a Obviously, when you look at it like that, it seems like maybe 20 years is not as much as like you would think With like 4 billion dollars, millions and millions of victims and one of the co-founders is still at large I assume eventually Justice or at minimum hopefully Karma catches up with these people but just wanted to give you an update there in case you're tracking what's going on in crypto and all the crypto scams and all that good stuff.

But really, let's return this to some of the bigger news of the day with Apple. Here's everything: Apple Just announced at its 2023 event: iPhone 15 models, new Apple watch and new airpods. If you heard just like the money leaving your wallet, I'm right there with you. This stuff is expensive and as much as I personally don't want to go out and keep buying it for some reason I keep doing that and I feel like just an absolute crazy person.

The company announced the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 plus complete with USBC charging starting at $799 It also unveiled the iPhone 15 pro and pro Max starting at $999 Another key announcement was the brand new Apple watch made with 95% titanium and with a 72 hours of battery life as well as the latest airpods. My question to you is are you a Die Hard Apple junkie? Are you going to go out and buy all this stuff? $1,000 at minimum just spending more and more and more. Or do you think maybe we're just going to hold on to our older models I Want to point this out because I think it's kind of interesting. Apple has a unique business.

I guess tactic of create the problem, Sell the solution. And we all know that by looking at the charges and the times they've changed them throughout history. Apple Will charge 29 buckaroos for a USBC adapter for your new iPhone The shift from USBC chargers for the iPhone 15 will mean that Apple's users old lightning cables will no longer work as I said. What a business tactic.

Create the problem, Sell the solution. and I guess they've done it well enough that it's literally the most valuable stock in the entire Market at this moment in time because apparently people like myself and hey, I'm not saying I'm better than cuz I go out and I continue to buy it. We continually get duped into buying and buying and buying especially. And this is the one that really makes me angry is the fact we know that they intentionally slow down the older phone models to force you into go into buying the newer phone model even though we don't necessarily need it.

It's not that it's just necessarily getting old literally older phone models as you download the new software updates. Apple's gotten in trouble for literally slowing down the models. But anyway, that's the big update In terms of the political scene we know Biden and McCarthy impeachment inquiry and then the big announcement in the world of just Tech is the fact that Apple all their new stuff I'm sure it's going to be bought up on the other side Oracle missing on earnings obviously going down and really the overall. Market Not looking the best today, but that might be erased as early as tomorrow.

So if you fast forward one day to Wednesday September 13th at 8:30 a.m. ET an hour before the Market opens, we are going to be getting the August 2023 CPI report. This is going to come out from the bureo of Labor Statistics and this is the Consumer Price Index which is just a fancy schmancy way of saying inflation. There's two inflation reports, the CPI report and the Pce report.

They're very related, but there are some nuances and I just want you. You know that this historically has had a big impact on the market, because don't forget, right now, we are in a very inflationary State and our current monetary policy set by the Federal Reserve is attempting to battle inflation. And we know that they've been doing this because we've had the second and third largest bank blowups of all time in the recent rate hike cycle. To battle that exact thing.

inflation. A little bit of, um, an anvil, a hammer in an anvil situation rather than like a surgical tool When you just just raising rates. It causes a lot of problems and they hope one of the things that it's going to do is bring down inflation. But obviously there could be secondary and tertiary effects such as Banks blowing up when I was looking into this today I Found something interesting now obviously to set the scene.

First of all, check this out tomorrow when we get the report. These are the predictions. The core: CPI When you're taking out food and energy, they're expecting a month-over-month increase of 2% When you're looking at normal CPI including food in energy, month over month are expecting 6% and then year over-ear the number that's going to get all the headlines and everything like that is going to be 3.6% and that's the one that is about 1.6% too high. It should be in the realm of 2% but obviously we're coming in almost about 100% higher than we should be.

So that's the Line in the Sand And first of all, to better set. like our understanding as we're going into this: I see the bad case, the good case, and most likely the happy middle neutral case. So obviously if we come in extraordinarily high, if inflation is just higher than it should be, that is setting us up for another rate increase in September. Now I'm in no way saying this is likely, but the next Fomc meeting the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

That's where the FED decides what to do with our federal interest rate. Well, that Fed rate is going to be set on Wednesday September 20th if this CPI comes in way too high. Surprisingly, High There's a good chance that we're going to get a rate hike at that point. Now that's not what the market assumes is going to happen.

What they're assuming is going to happen is okay. the rate maybe in line, maybe a little high, a little low, but that's where it's going to get into the nuanced argument of sub sectors of the CPI report. I would argue that there's two sub sectors. we should really be looking at services and shelter.

Both of those have proven to be a little bit sticky. So Services is things like medical services, financial services, other things. and a a lot of the times they're looking at the correlation and the trends with wages. Now recently over the past couple weeks we've seen a little bit of wage growth coming down.

Nothing too crazy, but we're basically about to find out is Services those is at inflation also going to be coming down a little bit so that's a major thing people are going to be looking at and then also housing. This is very complicated when it comes to the world of CPI because we know it's lagging by so much the way they do it. and that's not really. The point of this video is they kind of use this panel thing and they're looking at leases and a lot of leases are annual, but anyway, it ends up lagging where we're in real time by a couple months, so they're going to be looking at that.

But right now in terms of services and shelter, the Fed's coming into this a bit optimistic. Some of the recent numbers truly are encouraging. So those are the major sub sectors leaning a bit towards optimism looking for what's proven to be stick yes, and the sub sectors of inflation that we're really not getting a handle on actually coming down a little bit. So that's what I'll personally be looking at obviously in top of the overall numbers.

So I would say that's the base case. And then obviously we might get a surprise where the sticky inflation numbers actually come down a lot. And that might mean we're at the end of the rate height cycle. So obviously the very first case and the last case I think are the unlikely ones and I think if anything, we're going to see some good numbers, but maybe not as good as we really want to see.

So I think the highest are odds are for that middle case and if we end up seeing that, well, that's what's going to kind of put us right here. Going into this, there's a 93% chance that at that Fomc meeting on Wednesday September 20th 93% chance no rate hike. Obviously, if inflation is very high, the odds will actually increase for a rate hike and then obviously if they're very low or very promising, we probably won't see a change here. Obviously it could go from 93 to higher, but more so of the change is going to come in.

November Where about now? there's a little bit less than a 50% chance of 41% chance that we are seeing a rate hike So based on the CPI tomorrow? I'm not expecting much of a change in the odds of anything related to rates in the September meeting, but on the Wednesday November 1st meeting, that's where I think we could see some changes. so I'll be looking at that and just kind of getting a better idea of where we're going in the medium term. Now there's a good chance maybe you're watching this and you're like dude, I'm a day trader I'm a short-term swing Trader I don't really care about that. What's this data anomaly you found and that's exactly what I want to share? So on the screen is the last 10 CPI readings and I figured hey, maybe I could do some crunching of numbers, dive into the statistics to see if there's some sort of tradable event, some sort of repeatable pattern that might potentially make us money.

So out of the last 10, literally, five of the days were green and five were red looking at from open to close. Now then I started to think, okay, maybe there's a little bit of a correlation of looking at the previous day and I just want to double check my numbers here. The previous day, four were red and six were green, so that's pretty close to 50/50 itself. So not much of an anomaly there in terms of the day before or the day up.

But where I did find an anomaly is the difference from Market close to Market open and I thought this was absolutely fascinating I Just want to make sure I get all these numbers right. So of the last 10 CPI days from market closed the day before to Market open the day of CPI 8 out of 10, 80% 8 out of 10, four out of five were Gap UPS like actual opening up higher than the previous day's high. and then if we're just considering how many of them opened up higher than the previous day's Clos not necessarily a gap up, we're that number now increases to 9 out of 10. So no way am I sitting here saying it's a guarantee by any means.

I'm not saying 100% There's no such thing as 100% in the market. But what I am saying is there is a very good statistical chance that from where the market closed today Tuesday and where the Market opens tomorrow Wednesday I would bet that the Bulls are going to be in a bit of control just because of what I'm seeing statistically. what I'm seeing historically and obviously history doesn't repeat, but in the market it often. Rhymes So I just wanted to share that with you.

Nine out of the last 10, the market has opened up higher than where the market closed the previous day. Just wanted to share that obvious ly do whatever you want with that information. and I did want to cover one little extra thing here because I know some of you with that extra information might be doing a little bit of degenerate options trading. And now this is getting to the point that the Wall Street Journal is even writing articles on him.

Amateurs pile into 24-hour options quote unquote. It's just gambling. I Would like to give a a round of applause for all my degenerate brothers and sisters who like to engage in it. Is it just Gam Ling Most likely.

but I like to do it. so I'm going to continue to do so. In fact, I want to share you how two of the zero DTE call outs actually ended up going today. But before we get into that, look at the popularity of options trading.

average daily option volume. So this isn't just exclusively zero DT 1 DT or the weak of. But overall, this derivative product class is getting massively popular. 1990s.

Still now it's increased by huge huge amounts. and right now in all that Spike share of all options volume that expires in 5 days or fewer. that's almost half of all options being traded. So I would say yeah, no, the degenerates are starting to really make their voices be heard.

We should stop pretending that what's going on is investing. It's just gambling. Imagine taking your own profession and your own opinions and your own. Market Ideology So seriously that like we have to stop pretending this.

Yeah. I Think most people understand that as G ging. but once again, they're adults. It's their money.

They can do whatever they want with it. If they choose to gamble in a casino, have at it. If they choose to gamble in the markets, have at it. That's what it is like.

I'm not necessarily saying it's smart, but I also understand that I have enough trust in other people that they understand it's their responsibility of doing whatever they want with their money. One more chart to show you right here. At one point it will be dangerous and then mentions of one day options called zero DTE on social media obviously from 2020 until now just continuing to spike and Spike and Spike on that note, I actually want to share some of the call outs I made to quickly explain these call outs I Should let you know that in the back end I've been doing some data crunching. My background is computer science I almost had a master's in statistics so this is what I like to do.

Is it nerdy? 100% But maybe my nerdiness will end up being beneficial to you. So here. Uh, this today Tuesday I made two different call outs. one for spy Z Te and one for Q's Zero.

DTE Uh, we made two yesterday, went two for two. Those both crushed it for today. obviously. September 12th Z DT On the Spy it was a call Credit spread needed to close below 448.

Double check this. Yes, obviously the Spy did it closed at 446 and just for the next one on the Q's I it ended up closing below 373. So just to double check that one with the q's I needed it below 377. So these are high odds plays.

they're not going long calls or long puts this is selling premium so super high odds that hopefully can just be repeated repeated repeated. So thus far in the week where we went, we increased from 2 to2 to now 4 for four. so keeping the 100% record alive and just slowly adding and adding and adding. now.

obviously if you believe in these signals, have at it, feel free to use them. If you think they're horrible and you want to do the exact opposite, hey have at it. But I'm going to trust in the math and the statistics that I found out through doing this. Obviously, if you're interested in checking it out, I'll put it in the description of the video but it's Ma.

Locals.com and on top of that, that's also where I put this. Weekly Newsletter I'm back Dumb Money Newsletter September 11th to the 15th in this Weekly Newsletter that is 100% free I Give out all the major Market events for the upcoming week. For example: Wednesday September 13th all the CPI stuff on Thursday retail sales PPI you're going to get some stuff from Europe all that good jazz I Give out earnings right now are not an earning season so this section isn't really that filled out. But most importantly, I give out some of the seasonality obviously all coming back to this statistical nerdiness.

but I Just want you to know that the bias for Wednesday it's neutral leaning a bit bearish. So the Bulls have won 61% of the time over the past two decades, but the profit Factor below one clocking in at 0.58 So even though the Bulls have won more often when the Bears win, they're winning with greater size. So I put leaning bearish. but it's neutral leaning bearish.

So my point in saying this is we're not really being supported by Tailwinds We're not really running into headwinds from a seasonality standpoint, tomorrow is a bit of a neutral day. and then looking at the data of the most recent 10 CPI reports I don't really have much of a gauge on what's going to happen from open to close. but I think from today's close Tuesday's close to Monday's open at when it goes at 9:30 remember CPI report comes in at 8:30 an hour before the Market opens I Would be willing to bet just statistically historically from Market close to Market open the next day when you're involved with CPI I'm very very much looking for things to be green to be in control by the Bulls That's what I have for you today. I Hope you enjoyed it I Hope you learned something.

and if not, who knows, maybe I'll be able to teach you something better in the next video. or maybe check in on a live stream. Maybe I'll be doing something more enjoyable at that. Obviously, if you enjoy this type of content, don't forget to hit the like button, don't forget to subscribe, and best of luck with your trading on an inflation day.