Eternal Sunshine breaks and vice the Golden Age to start to counterweight I Wish that you would stay wait for way too late, a mouse to shut four days like to call it out I Don't think we can escape me. five steps again. Foreign. Good morning, good morning, good morning happy.

Monday May 1st we're starting a little bit early today I Get it? I Put that we're starting at 9am I Wanted to start today because we have a lot going on. namely: Banks collapsing FRC First Republic Bank Yes, the stock that I bought because I thought I was dip buying it I let everyone know that I was it was degenerate. It either goes to zero or it's coming all the way back up. Turns out it's going to zero so we're going to be explaining why that happened.

Uh, it is now being fully acquired by JP Morgan It is a nice, nice sweetheart deal. That's exactly why JPM Stock as of now is ripping in pre-market because it was such a great deal. Like I mean it. Phenomenal deal for them.

And really, this is an example of the power of psychology and media. FRC was a legitimately good bank if you talk to anyone who used FRC Their clientele was very happy with them. It was a strong bank. They weren't making some sort of YOLO decisions with mortgage-backed Securities They weren't making yellow decisions with bonds and a rising interest rate environment.

This was a legitimately good bank that could not withstand the psychology of a bank run. Their deposits plummeted, plummeted well at well, more than 50 and just they couldn't stop the hemorrhaging. This was a very fear-based thing. This, it was absolutely crazy.

Absolutely crazy. Before we get into it, wildly different, wildly different than 0809. This isn't like where Banks were getting into mortgage-backed Securities and then taxpayers had to pay off these bad bets. It wasn't like that JP Morgan is the person coming in fully acquiring FRC Uh, so we're going to be getting into all the details of it.

Yes, taxpayers seem to be a little bit involved. uh, and we're going to get into the specifics of that and that's just like a one aspect of like the Nuance with the FDIC But this is crazy. This in a weird way shows you the social media power, the cultural power of things exploding. Because simultaneously we're seeing things like Pepe coin ripping uh, I myself am not involved in Pepe at all.

It is literally another troll meme crypto project that is now a top 100 project. So simultaneously we're seeing the positive bullish power of a following and things rip. and then we're also seeing the negative bearish power the same thing of a negative psychology and FRC disappearing. And the difference between the two is just the fact that one is a legitimate bank that is now collapsing even though financially it was sound and then people still it caused a bank run.

Just all the news of the news and noise around it. and then on the flip side we see something like Pepe that ever since my start my charts start on it. it's up 600 and it's just another troll thing that's the world we live in. How crazy is that? that? the one that is backed by absolutely nothing is a joke is now worth whatever.

hundreds of millions of dollars is now considered a top crypto project and then the other one's a legitimate bank That people got worried. So then they came in and got their money out and then that caused more problems which caused more money people to come in and take their money out and now we're seeing the collapse of it and leads to more of a banking. Monopoly I Cannot stress this enough how Wild the situation is for JP Morgan The fact that they were able There are rules in the U.S that no bank is allowed to get so large that you have more than 10 percent of deposits of all U.S banking and I guess they just erased that rule last night so JP Morgan could acquire First Republic Bank We are living in the middle of craziness so I wanted to start a little bit early today just so we can get into all of that. And don't forget other wild things going on.

This week we have an Fomc meeting this: Wednesday Apple reports their earnings Thursday AMC reports their earnings on whatever. Friday Uh, their. AMD I believe is tomorrow Pfizer Uber Lyft DraftKings So we still have all of these earnings. We have major monetary policy Federal Reserve updates and then just this is all happening when we have crypto doing crazy things.

especially some of these like this new meme project and then we also have Banks failing that arguably should not be failing in yet. We are here. This is craziness folks. This is absolute craziness and this is a perfect time for me to remind everyone that whenever you're in this casino, we call the Market I Don't care if it's the stock market, the options, the Futures the crypto Market It doesn't matter, The market understand there's nothing.

There's nothing nothing, nothing that is a guarantee at all. You could think like I did at this. Bank Bank was going to make a recovery because it was a solid bank and it went absolutely complete and I fully admit this is a it was degenerate and I made that very clear to you folks many many times over and over. This thing either goes to zero, it sold off for parts and that's exactly what happened or it made a fully recovery.

That recovery is not going to happen. But the point of this is if you're putting money on the table, be prepared for it to not come back to you. You need to bet accordingly. You're playing with real money.

Your financial health is involved. You have to Be smart. If you do not have a risk management system in place, you are going to blow up and that is the last thing you want to happen. So what we're going to do this morning is: yes, we're going to be talking about Pepe We're going to be talking about Crypto.

Yes, we're going to be talking about JP Morgan FRC and the craziness there. And then we're also going to do a little bit of chart review and we're also going to hop into just everything that is the overall economic situation. Uh, we know some important reports are coming out this week. name the Fomc meeting and we have to talk a little bit about earnings.

namely: Apple So there is a lot to get into. A lot. A lot a lot to get into. And it's the start of a week.

It's the start of a month. Happy Made everyone. I Know there's that saying sell in Maine Go away. Understand that.

Statistically, that makes no sense. There's no evidence that you should be selling in May and then just disappearing I Could show you all those stats I Was speaking about it last night with on the true Trading Group stream. Uh, just it doesn't That's this is a 50 50 month. half the time.

It's a good half the time. it's not so good. There's nothing really too special in terms of the seasonal bias for the overall month of May I Think it's a saying that it sticks around because people like to say it. It has a fun spin to it, but this is where we are.

So lots of craziness. Lots of craziness. Now before I get going with everything and we hop into the news. Are there specific things you want me to catch on before like this all goes today as I'm waiting for your questions to come in of like the major things that you are or aren't interested in.

make sure you destroy the like button. drop A like on YouTube drop a like on Rumble really helps out with the algorithm and promoting this other people. Most importantly, do not forget to subscribe if you enjoy the Mac Coors live show. If you like talking about everything going on in the world of the market, the economy, and really just trending breaking news, this is the place for you to be.

Uh, but I would also love to add in. We are very close to 69 420 subscribers on Rumble so if you want to be the person who's in before that obviously important important Milestone on Rumble make sure you're going over there and hitting that subscribe button. Um, that's what I have for you. But what are your questions? What are the major things you want me to get into? Obviously I have a list of things that I want to cover over but I kind of wanted to start because I figured there was going to be a lot of things that were on your mind this morning.

Uh, JPM will pay just an Apple for the assets I bet. Oh, they're getting it for pennies on the dollar. They've already stated that JP more JPM JP Morgan has already stated that they think this will return them five billion dollars over the next five years. Like this is an absolutely phenomenal deal for JP Morgan It's one of these things where like the rich get richer literally.

What just happened between last week and now is the world's biggest bank just became bigger and that much more powerful, that much more insulated we're starting to realize and this is a great quote. I Read on Twitter this morning of in times of panic, no rules apply I mean talk about monopolistic practices like they just they forgot about the rules like nope, please buy it, please buy it, please buy it. So if I own FRC shares, do they convert to JPM in any way? or do I need to pull out what I can? Well, I believe it's actually Frozen So I don't think you're going to be able to do anything I'm not reading anything of it getting converted to JPM shares I'm not reading that I wish it was, but it looks like the shares like I said early when this was all being discussed. FRC In my mind, there's two options.

It recovers to where it should be because yes, it was a legitimately good bank or goes to zero If they cannot stop the hemorrhaging of losing all their deposits, they were unable to stop the hemorrhaging of losing all their deposits. They also made this stupid decision to not take any questions during their earnings call last week and it looks as if it's going to zero I'm not 100 sure of it, but I'm already mentally prepared and I'm writing it off as like completely going to zero does not look like it's coming back. Uh, by JPMorgan it's already up like you should have been in JP Morgan beforehand if you were trying to catch the move off of this. so it depends on the time frame.

if you're asking like it as a long-term investment. I mean I don't really care about financials too much I know in the short term JP Morgan is looking pretty good I mean a lot of people got some dip Buys in around 125 and it's obviously come a decent way from there. Uh, if you're worried about JP Morgan failing I Highly doubt it because it is the biggest bank in all of America and there's no way in hell our government will let JPM fail. There's a couple other ones that are these smaller players that are maybe up on the chopping block, but I've already gotten burned enough trying to dip by some of these Regional banks that I'm gonna go to a different sector, you know I took my shot with FRC Apparently I should have been looking at something like Pac West or whatever.

We've seen this before. If you look at the charts from 2008 2009, there were stocks that went very low. Some of them were able to pull a U-turn and make a recovery and then other ones failed. CitiBank at one point was trading at 30 cents and then on the flip side bear Stearns went kaput.

It's a game of just picking the ones that might be able to recover and FRC I Guess just they were not able to stop the hemorrhaging. That's the end of it. uh Texas Roadhouse Yeah, maybe we should just be involved in Texas Roadhouse Well folks, okay, hit the like button. Please please please I see that there's six I'm injured of you already in here on YouTube so we can jack that up.

Might as well go for half of it at 300. we have over 200 of you watching already on Rumble so if you were watching on either, it's completely free. Destroy the like button. Don't forget to subscribe and with all that being said, let's start diving into all the stuff that you should probably know about this morning.

Why is that the chat not loading again? I Thought I Fixed this problem last week. Man, sometimes the rumble chat is work in here and then other times isn't all right. We'll come back to that because we have too many important things to go over so we'll figure that out in a second. Dow Futures are flat after failed First Republic Bank is sold to JP Morgan for pennies on the dollar Dao slightly up S P now NASDAQ slightly down really not moving oil Taking a considerable hit because there is renewed fear about what is or isn't happening in the world of China At first it was really popping because of the OPEC plus cut in oil and then on top of it, people are like oh, China is strong.

They're going to be needing a lot of this commodity for basically their I don't know we'll call it their Industrial Revolution But now there's a little concerns that they're not going to be needing so much demand. So oil taking a little bit of a hit. Not an incredible hit. We basically went from 83 down to 75 and it seems to be holding in the mid 70s.

so that's a small screenshot. But I do want to let you know for the month of May it is pretty much a nothing month. We start out very choppy, then there's a bearish buys and then to conclude the month of May there is a bullish bias. so choppy at first bearish balias followed by bullish bias For those of you who are a little bit more interested in today, specifically today, just today, the first day of May does have a bullish bias.

Over the past 25 years, this day has favored the Bulls 72 percent of the time as in buying it open, selling at close, and then the profit factor is 1.81 and this is what the equity curve looks like on the left of your screen. If you were to buy it open, sell it close in the Futures Market holding. For just one day out of the 25 years worth of training, this is exactly what your Equity curve would look like. So I just just want to share that with all of you.

That from a seasonal perspective May is at first choppy, then bearish, then bullish, essentially net neutral. But today individually does end up favoring the Bulls this week. In general, if you look at it individually, it goes Bulls Bears Bulls Bears Bulls. So it just goes back and forth.

Bulls Bears Bulls Bears Bulls We go back and forth. It's not like we have pockets of strength and pockets of weakness. This whole week from a seasonal perspective essentially just ends up ping-ponging back and forth. So I just wanted to share that with all of you and then let me bring this screen back up up up up.

So overall, the month itself choppy today does favor the Bulls in terms of earnings. Major things you need to be paying attention to. So if I was this morning Norwegian was this morning, we could hop into that. This after market closed this afternoon, we have MGM Resorts Tomorrow we have Uber Pfizer BP Mirror Marriott marathon after close, we have AMD I Know there's a lot of AMD fans in here, so check that out.

We have Ford we have Starbucks Wednesday we have CVS We have Phillips 66. Uh, so we're definitely clearly getting a lot more uh, oil-based companies this week after the market closes on Wednesday Qualcomm Uh Thursday We have Datadog. We also have Apple. We have Shotify.

We have Modernum I Wanted to call out Moderna to all of you just because I Do think it's interesting that the CEO has been selling a lot of her stock. Uh, so I Kind of find that a little sus also on Thursday coinbase DraftKings and Lyft and then on Friday which is abnormal for AMC but it's reporting before the Market opens on Friday I Find that a little bit strange, so just want to put that out there to all of you. The a major thing of this week in terms of macroeconomic events now that we have all the earnings out of the way is the Fed. We have the Fomc meeting.

We're getting the results on Wednesday at 2PM As I'm saying this to you all live, there's a 90 chance of a 25 Bips rate like as in, they're pretty sure it's gonna happen a one-quarter of a percent rate hike uh, which will end up bringing us to five percent. We're currently sitting at 4.75 This will Jack us up to five percent. So that comes out at 2 P.m this Wednesday Obviously I'll be streaming it and then at 2 30. Jerome Powell The chairman of the FED will be doing a press conference so obviously we'll be streaming that as well.

So just make sure you know this. Wednesday There's going to be a like some extra stuff going on so I just want everyone to know about that. The major news of the day is First Republic Bank and it's the exact reason why my long-term portfolio just took a pretty sizable hit. JPMorgan Chase takes over First Republic after it's seized by Regulators JP Morgan Acquired all of first Republic's deposits and a substantial majority of the assets.

So I did a little bit of a deep dive into like what the actual details are and this is what you need to know. JP Morgan from First Republic acquired 173 billion dollars worth of loans, 30 billion dollars worth of Securities 92 billion dollars worth of deposits and none of the corporate debt or none of the preferred stock. and they also had to pay the FDIC 10.6 billion. and then they also had to pay back the other Banks 25 billion because a little bit ago remember how 11 Banks injected 30 billion to try to save FRC Well, 5 billion of it came from JP Morgan So the other 25 billion is gonna have to get repaid individually to those Banks now some when asked this and I just I know people are coming in right now and probably curious as of now I've seen no information related to FRC shareholders getting paid out or getting JPMorgan stock.

which leads me to believe that it's probably going to zero. but I just want to clarify I as of now like this is an influx situation I haven't read anything about it because I haven't seen anything about it. That's why I believe they're probably just gonna end up letting the stock like go to zero and I don't think there's going to be like any Kickback from that whatsoever. But this is what a lot of the media had to say about it this morning.

so let's give it a little. listen. it's been with so many different bidders, the FDIC in the middle and of course Janet Yellen tell us about it. Yeah, it's historic.

It was a competitive bidding process this weekend was fast and furious. But yes, the news this morning is that JP Morgan is acquiring First Republic directly from the FDIC which seized and immediately sold the faltering Bank This transaction the result of a competitive bidding process at least according to the FDIC and JP Morgan includes a majority of First Republic's assets, including 173 billion dollars in loans and 30 billion dollars in Securities Specific terms for First Republic's underwater assets are not quite known yet. We should learn more about that over the course of the next few hours, but the FDIC and JP Morgan entered a lost share agreement where they'll basically share in the losses and potential recoveries from some of First Republic's single-family residential and Commercial loan. I Just want to pause it there for one second notice how we're hearing more and more Banks kind of fire off the warning signal related to us real estate but specifically commercial real estate.

uh Morgan uh oh sorry about that. Um, it really all kind of started with like the Svb thing of people like uh yeah, like commercial real estate now looking so good then fast forwarding. fast forward to earnings season where Morgan Stanley like really pointed out in their earnings announcement that they are worried they had to like upgrade their like basically credit facility to protect themselves. and now this is even part of the FRC deal with JP Morgan of protection in their commercial loans I cannot State this enough, but it looks like the commercial real estate sector is under a lot of pressure and I don't know if it's being clearly called out to everyone.

so I Want to put that on your radar Whether you just want to protect yourself and avoid it. maybe you want to be a degenerate and bet against it. Do your research obviously, but pay attention to what's going on in the commercial real estate sector. Loans it purchased of the former First Republic Bank and JP Morgan will assume about 92 billion dollars in deposits that includes the 30 billion in uninsured deposits that were infused into First Republic by itself and other large things.

That means they lost 10 billion from the failures of Silicon Valley after losing 100 as part of this transaction, JPMorgan intends to repay the deposits from its large banking peers or eliminate them as part of the consolidation. First Republic will go down as the second largest bank failure in U.S history that's bigger than than Silicon Valley Bank In a statement out earlier this morning: JP Morgan Chairman and CEO Jamie dimon said quote, our government invited us and others to step up and we're just basically saying our government told us it's okay to become a monopoly, develop a bid to execute the transaction in a way to minimize costs Insurance Fund that FDIC estimates that the cost of that Deposit Insurance Fund will be about 13 billion dollars as a result of this transaction. JPMorgan will not be assuming first Republic's corporate debt or preferred stock shares currently trading. Uh, just under two dollars per share in pre-market so not quite at zero, but they've gone down about 98 so far this year, guys.

Okay, Leslie There's so many questions this morning that I think so many people have. The first of which is you know JP Morgan was obviously in the hunt PNC Was there this weekend. we saw Bank of America in there there. were questions about whether the Federal Reserve and the treasury were going to have to waive some of the requirements around size and they did.

Bank of America in particular already are. I'm curious if we know if what kind of waivers were necessary to to complete this transaction and ultimately what we really think the cost is going to be to the FDIC I know 13 billion dollars is that figure that's being Band-Aid about. But I'm assuming that if if there are potentially larger losses, is it cut off at 13? Yeah, or could it could or could it be higher? Well, yeah, I think it could be higher. They've got that lost share agreement there in place, which um, you know would suggest that it could be higher depending on what the recoveries look like.

Uh, for the various assets that they are embarking on that loss share agreement with. but no, it's a it's a great question in terms of what, uh, the various regulatory thresholds are. That was my Uh main question as well, because there was a lot of reporting over the weekend, largely from other outlets that suggested um, you know that PNC would be the leader here just because they don't necessarily have to, um, get around those regulatory constraints in terms of making a bigger Bank bigger. So hopefully we will learn more in the various calls that are happening later today, but there there isn't any um detail in the the releases that we have so far with regard to any changes for those thresholds.

No. I've been trying to chase that down. the other one I was trying to chase down maybe you've done better than I have is just the idea of were there were there any waivers around uh, future lawsuits, legal liability, and the like given the experience of Jamie Diamond in particular had in 2008 around Washington Mutual around bear Stearns the list goes on and the amount of liabilities and ongoing Uh ongoing lawsuits that then took place for four or five years and I think he would say not only cost the bank billions of dollars, but a headline risk if you will and whether that is in the offing as well this time. Yeah, that's a great question because in the release JPMorgan says kind of what they're anticipating in terms of restructuring costs, but they don't have a specific line item with regard to Legal liability and and any kind of expectation they have on that front.

So I agree. that's something that hopefully we'll learn more potentially in the investor presentation that's due out at seven, but we also have a slew of calls um, in the eight o'clock hour as well that we should be able to get support so we still have a lot of info especially Regulators They may not have wanted JP Morgan to get any bigger, but they also are in a position of wanting to make sure they're getting the best possible deal for the remaining assets of this bank. They don't want to look like they were picking a smaller bank at higher terms as I think we saw earlier with some of the assets that got sold off some Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank They want to be in a position of knowing that this is going to go okay and First Republic had a garbage portfolio. It was worse than Silicon Valley Banks Just in terms of the loans that they'd been providing mortgages for really expensive houses at very low loans for very long periods of time.

I Mean that's that's something that you probably have to be pretty big to be able to take over and deal with and say no problem, We're going to do okay with us. Not only that, but then they had to reach out in order to fill the the Gap that they had on their balance sheet. They had to reach out to the uh, the Fed, and take out loans in order to kind of continue operations two percent of the FDIC Windows operating essentially at a loss I Think you're right Becky that you know if the portfolio a lot of them a deal maybe a bit more distressed over the last few weeks, but clearly this was the outcome. Uh, that that had to take place in order to get the deal done.

and I think the FDIC did learn from the events of March and decided that this kind of season sale idea where they immediately seized it but lined up a buyer in the meantime was the best outcome to kind of ring fence the issues here. All right, so that's a pretty good explanation. Uh, there were a couple other things I wanted to get into. So for those of you who are maybe better at you, want to read it rather than listen to someone talk about it, These are the major points of the deal: JPMorgan will pay 10.6 billion to the FDIC and then there's some other kickers in there.

And that's why they're talking about the 13 billion number FDIC to provide 50 billion five-year fixed rate financing. So it's kind of being financed by the FDIC which is interesting. JP Morgan repay the prior 25 billion. We talked about that because remember 11 Banks banded together they gave 30 billion to FRC So the other banks are going to get paid back.

they're 25 billion First Republic 84 branches and eight states will reopen today as branches of JPMorgan. So this is: JP Morgan acquiring all of FRC All deposits of First Republic will become depositors of JP Morgan and will have full and instant access to their deposit. JP Morgan says deal will have fail Fair excuse me. fair value mark on acquired loans at roughly 22 Bill JPMorgan Will not assume first Republic's corporate debt or preferred stock.

There's other information in here that we should probably hop into. I Kind of saved it all under my legs. We'll listen to that. We'll listen to that.

This is the second largest bank failure ever. Uh, so the first one was Washington Mutual At 307 billion, this is the second largest one ever at 229 billion. Before this, there was a rule that you weren't allowed to have one Bank controlling more than 10 percent of U.S deposits. So they thought JP Morgan was out of the ruling but occur.

Apparently, our government said, well, we really don't care at all. Um, this is kind of interesting in acquiring: First Republic Bank JP Morgan has bypassed laws against acquiring Banks while controlling 10 percent of U.S deposits shared 13 billion in losses with the FDIC Received a 50 billion dollar loan from the FDIC effectively bought back its own deposits. expects to profit 5 billion over the next five years. Once again, expects to profit 5 billion over the next five years.

That's why in real time, JP Morgan is up quite a bit in pre-market trading because that's a pretty good deal. Added 18 billion in market cap this morning alone. The crisis has taught us that rules do not matter in times of panic. Total assets of the 511 U.S Bank failures from 2009 to 22 339, 339 billion total assets of the three U.S bank failures as in 508 less over the last two months was 548 billion.

Think about that. 511 banks failed over what a 13-year period. And it totaled 339 billion. Three banks have now failed in two months and it costs 500 or the total assets was 548 billion.

Absolutely crazy. This one I think is a good one. I Think that's the key point you just made because there were other banks in there over the weekend and if you think about it at the end of the day, ultimately with the FDIC chose here is to allow J.P Morgan to take over more than 10 percent of the department. I Don't know why more people are a little bit of a desperation situation where I guess the bids from U.S Bank Corp and PNC were so low.

In other words, those banks are not really I I Don't think they're They were strong enough and my client, our clients, a lot of our clients around the world don't think those Banks were strong enough to do this deal. So at the end of the day, you had to go to Papa Jamie and papa Jamie you know and and put more than 10 percent of deposits of the United States of America into One bank I mean it does speak to the situation I Think there's a lot of hope that this will kind of put a coda on what we've seen at least so far with the bank banking turmoil that this was the last big unknown resolution. but Charlie Munger out over the weekend with the financial times just saying that they are still concerned, he's still concerned with what he sees in terms of commercial real estate and the potential I agree at some of the banks for about commercial real estate is looking a little toxic right now Exactly. Um, this is I was just going to bring that up.

Nobody's closer to Buffett and Monger than you you are and for Charlie to come out you know I don't know. unsolicited for the second third time in the last two months, he's making a statement there. and if you look at the insurance companies. one thing that I made very public in February A point that I made is that the banks were underperforming the S P 500 by a very large margin that's kind of a canary in the coal mine.

Now the insurance companies are underperforming the S P since early January by 14 that is one of the largest uh, underperformances. In that short period of time you're going back. You got to go back to Lehman or covet so it's very clear I think and from what I'm hearing from clients, there's about two trillion dollars of losses on the commercial real estate side because all of most of the financing was done one two, a little bit under three percent over the last you know decade on all these commercial real estate transactions those loans are I Think a lot of them are dramatically impaired with a five percent risk free rate that's being put forth by the FED funds rate. So the FED is up against inflation.

but everything they're trying to do to kill inflation is actually further impairing a lot of banks on the commercial real estate side. so do you think? And the only thing I'll say on Charlie Munger I Don't know that he was trying to make any specific point. He was giving a pretty broad-ranging interview to the Financial Times Obviously What was happening in the banking sector would be front and center among the questions that they'd be asking him. I Don't think he was trying to send a particular message I think he's just talking and speaking his mind ahead of the annual meeting for Berkshire Hathaway Well, you'll hear a lot more of this this coming Saturday but Larry What do you think this does if anything to the Federal Reserve and with the FED coming out on Wednesday with the decision and then the commentary, what we'll hear from the Fed: Fred Chairman: Um, what's at risk for what this means for other Banks Well, in talking to clients around the world on this commercial real estate problem, you really have to get the FED funds rate back down to two percent.

And when you talk to the big Consultants that work, this is a little bit more broad now. I Just wanted to talk about how uh, this 10 deposit rule got thrown out the window and also I do think it's interesting that multiple people are like there is clearly fear in corporate real estate, so be careful if you're looking at that particular asset class. I'm I'm not long I'm not short I'm not doing anything I'm just kind of paying attention to it. So uh, they were talking about a little bit about Charlie Munger Charlie Munger reportedly warns of trouble for U.S commercial property Market Um I Know it's not the thing of most interest for everyone in here, so I just wanted to share that with you if you guys want to dive a little bit more into it.

More than happy too. uh Jack Dorsey criticizes Elon Musk's leadership at Twitter it all went South Twitter's former CEO Jack Dorsey openly criticizes Elon Musk's leadership of the company in a series of social media posts last Friday Dorsey said it all went South and that Musk should have walked away from the acquisition. He made the remarks in conversation with users on another social media platform he has invested in Blues: What is Blue Sky What is Blue Sky Does anyone know anything about this apps? See what's next? Blue Sky will launch you and join the waitlist to try the beta before it becomes publicly available. Uh, okay, whatever.

The critiques reflect a notable change in the tune of Dorsey who once called Musk a singular solution to The Takeover of Twitter. So obviously they're not the best of friends. Uh, whether you like Elon or you don't, Obviously, the metrics of Twitter are all pretty much improving. Yes, I Get the revenue from advertisers has been dropping just because like a lot of companies like, we're not going to advertise anymore, we don't like what you're doing, but the usage is spiking up.

And yes, I get that a lot of these companies are going to be virtue signaling and they're going to pull off uh, the platform and act like it's some big thing. But when they win the I guess cultural backlash from many people within the country stops against Twitter I Guarantee you all those companies are going to return because they're gonna like the uptick in users and usage and it's just a marketing opportunity for them. So I don't think it's a thing that's going to last too long. Softbanks arm registers for Blockbuster us IPO So SoftBank and arm arm is another semiconductor play Thinking Video think AMD think those Gpus, the graphic processing units think AI think crypto.

think data centers. Uh, so they're going to be going for pretty large IPO later on this year. So once again this year, I think anywhere from like eight to ten billion maybe 9 to 10 billion is going to be a very, very big IPO So I Just want to put that on your radar. Obviously we're not that close to it, but when we do get there, uh, we're going to be covering it a little bit more closely.

Five things to know before that bow goes dingety ding ding ding today Monday May 1st Turn the Page Uh, another week? Uh, we're getting underway right here. Well I want to talk about Pepe but we're going to come back to that. So the market is looking strong. Uh, I Do want to point out a couple structural things: shoulder head, shoulder shoulder at 405 head at 382, shoulder at 405 inverse Head and Shoulder things are looking pretty strong.

Yeah, we had some weakness. it did break down, fake out breakdown then it's starting to pull back around. We broke above the resistance at 4 15. uh, we even closed above the recent High things are looking strong I question how much more it has to go into it I will be watching 418 in some change and then I'm really going to be watching for 4 21 22 which is a gap though from mid-august of last year.

by the time we get into the mid 420s I Think that this run is going to have to take a noteworthy breather I Don't think we are in the phase of the market going rippity, skippity, dude off for the rest of the year, If anything I am looking for more so of a sell-off. Uh I think in the short term we could have a bit more of a pump in a medium term. I'm looking for a sell-off and then by the time we get to the end of the year September October November That's when I'm personally looking to be like, okay I think we might actually be getting into like the full-on next like bull phase of the cyclical aspects of our market. So I don't think we're out of the woods yet.

I think our monetary policy has to answer a lot of questions. Obviously, there's craziness in the world of banking. There's other sectors that are under pressure. So with all that being said in the short term, yes I do have some upside Targets in the medium term.

if you're looking at the next handful of months, I think we're going to be under some pressure and then by the time we get to the end of the year, that's what. I'm looking to really reload some of the ammo into my long-term account into some of my favorite plays such as whatever Microsoft Nvidia Apple Meta Amazon all that type of stuff. so just want to put that out there for today. Individually, we're down a little bit.

I'm watching 418 I'm watching 421 and on the downside, I'm watching 413. those are my upside and my downside support and resistance to see what is going on there. Obviously, we're going to be listening to anything involved with. First Republic Bank JP Morgan We have the Fomc meeting on Wednesday We have Apple reporting on Thursday Lots of big macro things to be paying attention to.

More earnings coming up like I said Thursday Uh, feel free to screenshot this or go to at E-whispers on Twitter Dorsey Rips at Musk we covered that Monger has a warning specifically in corporate real estate, so please pay attention to that as well. Now let's talk about Crypto. So on the banking craziness: Crypto: Rip: That makes sense. People are viewing it as a safe haven, especially Gen Z and Millennial who are a little bit more apt to get something like Bitcoin before they get something like gold.

The reason I'm bringing that up is because both are clearly thought to be a store of value. a safe haven where everything else is going to put. So we did see a pop in Bitcoin We did see a pop in Ethereum and then things started to sell off and now once again, we're in this mid-range Bitcoin sitting at 28.6 K East sitting 1850 so pay attention to that. But the thing that everyone was talking about last week and now this week is: Pepe This is another meme coin.

This is, uh, in the same realm of big or excuse me Doge Shiba It's another meme coin that, to be fair, has made a lot of people quite a bit of money. It is up 587 ever since I could start charting it here on Tuesday April 18th I own no Pepe Um, if you want it I Wish you the best of luck. Um, similar to FRC You have to understand this is a degenerate play. This isn't like you're investing in a health insurance plan.

You're sitting on it. This is. it's high risk. High Reward if that's your type of thing.

Good luck I hope you crush it I Own none. If there's a fall, maybe I'll get like a hundred bucks of it. Just as like a yellow thing. You could see it's trading at Zero Zero Zero Zero Zero Zero Zero.

Like One One Seven right now. Huge percent in gains. Uh, it's now a top 100 project. It's a volatile thing.

It's a fun thing. people are making money. It's a degenerate play I Beg of you only if you want to get involved than this. If you want only put the money on the table that you are willing to lose, this could so quickly get rugged.

This could so quickly go to zero. Can you make money off of it? Yes. Is this something I would invest in and think has like an amazing future? Absolutely not. But that doesn't mean you can't degenerately trade it in the middle day traded, swing trade it.

just. I'm telling you, it's a high risk High reward, so play it somewhat responsibly. All right, let's go back to the overall market and let's open that up. Let's switch to this Market Looking a little bit weak right, now as we get going with the day, but not the craziest thing beings.

banks are failing. um I did want to call out to you one play we were talking about this on the true Trading Group Um, we are just below 105. One play I want to call out is I like this concept of playing Amazon from 105 down to 102.50 a little bit of a struggle in the cloud computing sector for this business. A little bit of weakness right now.

the market You could argue is a little bit overextended. so I just want to call that play out to all of you if Amazon stays below 105 if it cannot recapture 105. I Do like the concept of maybe a little bit of a swing trade. maybe it happens within a day, but Amazon down to 102.50 I'm a fan of that play.

Obviously we could watch FRC to see what does or doesn't happen there. It's a debacle I'm just kind of assuming all the money I put into it is going zero. Definitely just should have known that as soon. I Should have known that even though I thought the bank was a pretty good bank I don't necessarily agree with Becky quick that all their loans were garbage I Actually don't really agree with that at all.

but um I should have known that even though I like the bank, it wasn't enough to overcome the fact that Kramer was bullish on it I Should have known. Honestly, it's all my fault. Like, as much as research as you can do, as much of a strong, well-researched thesis as you can have, as soon as Kramer comes out in agreement with you, you probably know it is time to run. Um, that's the lesson I learned of.

It's just if grammar Kramer agrees with you, you just better run for the hills, better run for the hills. So lesson learned for me. and maybe I can make some of this money back on the overall Market I Wanted to pump a little bit more I would love to lay in a pretty serious short position on the overall Market If we get that, pop up to like 422 425 but obviously time will tell so we have about a minute and a half left. Uh, before that Bell goes ding ding ding ding.

So hit me with your questions. Obviously here's the plan for the day. The first 10, 20, 30 minutes we're gonna watch the market open. Let me know if you see any crazy High Flyers Insanity I mean I guess we could actually even put up Pepe because why not? It does seem funny to kind of pay attention to.

Uh, we'll put Pepe up. Dude, this thing is just absolutely ridiculous here. I'll switch this one to the 15. so there's Pepe for you for all you absolute crypto D gens in here.

But other than that, what are you guys interested in? Uh, what? We're gonna watch the market open first 10, 20, 30 minutes. then from there we can do chart reviews. We can see if we have any interesting Gap plays. we could see if we have any interesting breakouts breakdowns maybe identifying.

I Kind of want to start doing a daily segment right after like maybe 10 a.m like wait for the first half hour to trade and then spending the next 10 to 15 minutes of just doing daily chart reviews to see if we can identify any interesting swing plays. So if there's any ones that you want to see obviously like, let me know. um is FRC halted? Yes, it is halted. It stopped trading as soon as this.

like a lot of the information of the deal broke so it got halted at eight. Um, this isn't a circuit breaker hole or anything like this. this is more of the government like it's probably halted. Pending news is the actual designation? Uh, hang on, let me get rid of that.

FRC it happened at Eight I don't even see it on this list right now. FRC It's probably a halt pending news if I just had to guess uh FRC informs investors is a bank customer Q2 FR it's just being acquired by JPM and I think if you're a shareholder, you are probably not going to be getting uh as of now I don't think you're getting anything from it. Looks like this is just trading into the abyss into the abyss. But with all that being said, dingety ding ding ding the casino is over.

Best of luck to all. Play responsibly if not have fun. All right, we could actually put JPMorgan up here JPMorgan up 2.6 on the day 2.6 JP Morgan is having quite the day actually don't even need that anymore JP Morgan heading at 1.8 How much was it? 18 billion to its market cap? Massive Gap up and it's It's basically a free five build to them. Over the next five years, they are essentially socializing their losses with the FDIC they got an amazing 50 billion dollar loan and probably an extraordinarily small rate from the FDIC.

The deal is insane. We just gave the nicest sweetheart deal to the biggest bank in America That is the situation we are currently living in. the nicest, sweet heart deal to the biggest bank in America That all just happened. that all just went down.

Um, absolutely crazy. Absolutely insane. What do we have? Um, so uh, hit me with your comments. What charts do you want to break down what major things you want to talk about? If there's videos or something you want me to respond to just DM it to me on Twitter at underscore Course Once again, if there's stories, videos, shorts, something you want me to react to send it to me on Twitter Uh, DM into me at Matt Underscore course.

but in the meantime, comment a way of what charts you want me to check out. Uh BBY that's done. Another one that was worthwhile to go to zero, but we could definitely look at the chart. Is it even trading? Doesn't it get delisted? Wednesday it's over Enph E-n-p-h Did I ever get to the bottom of the rumble? Hate Wait Jason What Rumble Hate QQQ Top QQQ uh what? Rumble Hey I was unaware that there was Rumble Hate Gnus G-n-u-s uh uh, what else? What else? What else? What else? What else? I'll add in some of the major ones for you folks because you're being slow this morning.

Tesla Amazon um Meta UNH T X R H uh. Silver Silver. We might as well look at gold. We might as well look at all right you're saying Sofi uh what else? we got the UNH Shout out Bonobo Bro Bonobo bro.

um Bbby still active Yeah, because I think it's getting delisted on Wednesday the Third emph a lot of W-r-b-y-w-r-b-y didn't Kramer say he wanted to short that one. so should we be going long on it? snap AAPL Apple Mullen Julian Just 11? Mullen I Mean it's just a trash play Mullen Mullen Mullen Mullen Mullen Mullen uh top I Mean that here I'll write it in Oh well. I already have it, but that's a clear Short play that just was a squeeze out of nowhere. it's going to come back down.

Gravity is going to win on that one, Bud I believe Anheuser-Busch is actually reporting this week I think Thursday someone please correct me if I'm wrong. Remember my major play for all of you? Um that I really like if Amazon stays actually can I just play this with you. Hang on I Forgot to open my brokerage today I Forgot to open my brokerage. Hold tight.

Hold tight. Hold tight. hold tight. Uh positions closed positions.

Okay, okay, all right I'm just freeing up some. oh the premium I've been selling's looking good looking good that Theta decay. All right I'm just freeing up some Capital Market Orders good, good, good. Thank you.

Nope that one's not where I want it. That one's not where I want it. This one's trading at Four Cents I Got in at 18. good.

This one's trading at three cents I got in at 37. Good. We'll take the money on that market order. Good Good Good good, good, good.

All right we're locking in some nice gains. um from Just Premium. I'm so like I've sold. uh there's only ones break even.

the 22-23 for May 5th, 18 and 19 is a little bit underwater. Um, all right so it's oh fuck am I already missing the Amazon Play uh uh amzn options amzn amzn we will be looking at. Um they do not have much volatility to them do they? uh I'm gonna go for the 12th instead. What do I want to do? Um, how do I want to play this? Amazon Amazon Amazon Amazon Amazon Amazon Amazon man I'm starting to already lose the trade.

it's going a little too far without me team. Okay no I did not get my full fill there. Unfortunately did I get my full fill has been filled? Okay, cool. uh I'm gonna go for it I'm gonna play this Gap film on Amazon this is what I'm particularly looking at.

Uh, we were talking about this on the true Trading Group stream last night but I really did like it of basically paying attention to this breakdown at 105. uh, not holding and I'm looking to capture at this support right there 102.50 Obviously my risk will be 105 if it pushes back up there I bought puts at 102. I just got into them this morning. Um, the information on it is positions Amazon 102 put May 5th I got in at a dollar fourteen.

Um so they're kind of break even right now, but that's where I'm in. I'm just looking for this kind of a gap fill situation. Not really a gap fill, but just a clear support level. Once again looking for Amazon to come to 102.50 The only thing like it's been pushing up and we obviously do have a little bit, this is referred to as a bear Channel Higher highs, higher lows.

perfect parallel lines on the top and on the bottom. They do commonly break down. it's just a question of when maybe it breaks down this time. I'm not really betting on that though, just because mine expire this Friday So I want to be very, very clear about that? The position I'm in the options expire this Friday So if it hits today, I'm just taking my money I would be willing to swing it one day, but in reality my risk would be if it comes back above 105 and holds above 105.

if that happens, I'll be cutting it for a loss today. The Overall: Market Looking strong. The Spy looks like it broke above. its high, about to break above.

its high from yesterday. broke Above It by Five Cents so about to break above 416. once again, my upside Target on the spy for now is 4 18, 31. That's what I'm watching and then past that, we have the Gap fill to 421.22 which is a gap from mid August of last year I believe like August 18th, August 19th.

But these are my two upside targets. Obviously we've been having a pretty nice push lately. Pretty nice push lately. Someone said Nvidia WTF what's going on with Nvidia Nvidia Strong.

Whoa. Uh, so it's still in this range. A very clear range at 280. uh, 280 or 260.

Um, this is Major resistance. We have major resistance scattered from 280 up to 290.. So 280 to 290 if it gets above it. if and that's a big if that's quite a bit of strength from Nvidia Personally I think I would be afraid to get involved because it's already moved so much from the lows in October This thing's up 156.

so if you're not already in this party I think you're a little bit late to it if you want to play it, obviously, just be smart about your risk. I mean if I had to get in right now I would choose to risk 260 262. this would be my risk region. but then all of a sudden you're risking your reward are out of whack because if you're like, well, hang on it's only up to 290.

That's ten dollars of a gain, but in reality you're risking like potentially 18. To the downside: so the risk reward not necessarily in your favor in video showing a lot of strength I In no way am disagreeing with that. in video representing a lot of strength, but at a certain point, something could be strong and you still have to ask yourself what's the risk and what's the reward in this situation. the spy showing a lot of strength JP Morgan Chilling at 142.

not long ago you could have picked this up for like 125. uh Pepe Not moving yet but this thing gets volatility out of nowhere. Uh, to clarify, my live positions right now are essentially a put position on Amazon attempting to play it down to 102.50 Uh Pepe kind of going flat I have no position there, spy going upward I just have sold premium um, so nothing too special and I have nothing really going on with JP Morgan Microsoft All right. Amazon Apple Tesla Tesla's at 162.

Oxy's going up to 62. oil having a bit of a recovery. Uh I Know some of you are talking about gold and silver silver, so let's check in on that. How's gold doing? Gold back above 2000? So it popped off of this trend line.

kind of going flat, but recovering I am bullish on gold and then silver. You guys were also talking about silver. Silver above 26 exploded, came down. uh, got above 25.50 Silver having a very good day watch for resistance at 26.50 After that, you're talking 27.50 26.50 would be a big breakout, so be careful about buying here.

Once again, a risk reward argument. but if you got on this initial breakout, I mean you're already looking pretty good. So these precious metals having a pretty good day? Um Bitcoin Flat. Not really doing anything? Uh, Ethereum is now flat.

Recently they all popped and they weren't able to hold it really. I mean for the degenerate traders in the world of crypto, right now, the major watch happens to be Pepe just because of how crazy it's all gone. Uh, but oil's going well I'm watching Pepe just to see if there's anything fun there. Oh I know some of you were talking about top.

It was a squeeze play from last week. Looks like it's starting to die. Uh, if if you have the ability to locate shares on loan to short I would be far more interested in shorting top than I would be going long on it. This is another short squeeze like crazy low float play out of China it exploded.

It went from 19 all the way up to 260 and now it looks like it's starting to die I would argue I mean if I had to play it which I don't have any shares located to short but by the time this thing goes under 48.60 the low from this explosion day I'd then be looking to play The Gap filter to 24 bucks like that. Honestly seems like a very easy twenty four dollars per share of a game like this thing will not last. It's a pump, it's a dump. It's going to be done.

Uh, just it's a matter. It's honestly is a matter of time. I can't tell you exactly when I wish I could I wish I had a crystal ball. but I think top is going to end up coming right back down to these values of where it was in like the six dollar range.

maybe even worse. but this thing in my opinion is a dead man walk talking. Same situation that we saw with Gns. Remember how The what's his name Roger Hamilton This guy was trying to pump it.

Talk about how like his company was like naked shorted and whatnot. Yeah, he's all about naked shorts and he's saying that's what's going on with his company. Uh no, it's not true I don't I like the fact that he's trying to fight against Naked Shorts I Appreciate that. that's good, but it really has the vibe of he's just trying to get the ape Community because when he started talking about it, people got excited, it pumped up and now it's an absolute dump.

This is a trash company I Like him because he seems to be supporting um, the fight against naked Shorts. but I do question if it's legitimate it. it seems like he might just be doing it to get more eyeballs on a stock. I Don't know I'm just throwing out assumptions here.

but I mean Gns was such an evident evident pump and dumb. Speaking of pump and dumps Mullen dying I mean this was this has been and always was a short Trka I mean the amount of people I mean there were multiple people within the X8 Community who were like this is great This is going to keep going. There's YouTubers telling you to get this and they loved it and it was going above it on it was going to keep ripping and then it got trash. Uh as soon as it had this red day we talked about how like it was probably gonna die and that was at 56 cents.

It's now trading at 20 and honestly it's gonna probably end up falling even more. Um, Bbby I Believe this is being delisted on Wednesday Trash Another one that as soon as this happened right here in August September with Ryan Cohen this was our sign for the whole world to probably short the stock you could have got in. I mean even in the worst case scenario, around seven bucks and you could have written this down all the way to 11 cents. So pretty much you could have just gotten a free seven dollars for every single share you short hid if you were willing to hold it this long.

Absolutely crazy. Someone said AMC is squeezing. Finally, No, it's not. It's trading at five bucks.

Ape is trading at a dollar like that's not squeezing. Come on, let's be realistic folks. let's let's be a little bit more realistic. Um Tesla just chilling in the low 160s Apple Looking really good at almost 170 looking really, really strong.

Actually, we had this like we have this interesting, uh, kind of wedge formation going on here kind of building out I Wonder how this is going to play out into it turnings once again Apple Reports after the market closes this Thursday What? What's this? Thursday The the fourth. So after the market closes, pay attention to Apple there Fomc meeting on Wednesday AMC actually reports Uh, before the Market opens on Friday Lots of stuff going on. Lots of stuff going on. Spy strong.

The spy showing some strength. Let's look at the Futures Market do the 15 minutes. Lots of strength red, white and blue. All the exponential moving averages are properly stacked on top of each other.

The price action is above the exponential moving averages. Looks like we're running a little bit into resistance here. Clear psychological level at 4200. Looks like we might be taking that out in the near future.

The Bulls had a apparently a very, very restful weekend because as of now, it's representing strength. We're seeing strength in the oil. Market We're in seeing strength of the overall. Market Maybe people are happy that this FRC deal apparently is behind us.

Could be. Uh, we're gonna see. We're gonna see. we're gonna see.

I Know that there were other ones that you guys called out that you want to see. Hang on. All right you asked for Bbby we went over that. it's trash I Believe it's gonna stop trading on Wednesday Enph I mean another semiconductor.

huge gap down showing weakness. uh I wouldn't short it right now because you're already chasing. Maybe if it spins back around I'd be interested. It looks like it drastically missed on its earnings or, well, technically it be, but they probably had to have pretty negative guidance for this to happen.

So I'd be watching for this to maybe spin back around. uh I'm not playing end phase in any way, but it's ugly looking. I mean obviously it would have been nice to shorten in here, but it's chasing to be shorting now or to be buying puts now QQQ uh the NASDAQ Overall Market looking strong, holding above 322 looks like it got its Gap though all the way back to August if it continues I'd be watching 3 30. 330 is what I'd be watching on the upside on the queues.

Uh, the risk. It's not the worst right now, but the recent drawdown is kind of far away. So like you wanted to get in on this recovery here, not at the current breakout level. It's all about risk reward.

We talked about top I mean it was another low flow of like a micro float squeeze play. Uh, this is going to come back down. Gravity will win I Don't know when but I do believe that this thing is coming back down to five. Six bucks.

Uh, if you want to be a degenerate and day trade on it, have at it. I Wish you the best of luck I Just beg of you to respect your risk. uh genus. This is another one that it only went up because I don't know, it's just so I don't even know why it went up gnus um movies Entertainment genius Brands I mean look at the trend: lower highs, lower lows I Don't see this thing recovering like why would it recover? uh Tesla I'm still interested in the downside Gap play even though there is an upside so there's two gaps on Tesla and I Guess whatever way the current consolidation breaks, you could play that Gap Though if we break above 170, you could play it to 177.

If we break below 150, 152, you could play it down to 146. Uh, just have some patience on that play. But two nice Gap fills on Tesla's chart Amazon I just have a short-term short position on it I Bought puts I Think this comes back down to 102.50 it's just been building up I Think we're coming back down to the bottom side of this range. It's just a little weakness and it's cloud computing sector.

Nothing too crazy there. I Still like it in the long term. Meta showing a crazy amount of strength. In fact, we're almost building like if it gets, we might be starting another.

Gap Though, if it gets above 248 which is the top of this gap down, we might be getting back up to this region 317 which is nuts I have no active Meta position live right now, but talk about a recovery. Um UNH Healthcare play I like like it I collect the dividend. it's just been kind of going sideways not doing too much. uh Texas Roadhouse txrh strong I still owe no Texas Roadhouse I Wanted to get a below 100.

It's turning out 111 showing strength. It's a play that I love that I'm just not involved with because, uh, risk reward folks. Uh, we went over silver, We went over gold. How'd Sophie do they reported early this morning gapped up strong being sold off.

So if I I mean right now the world of Finance these Banks uh, anything involved with loans obviously approach it with a very risk off mindset. Crazy things are going on. Warby Parker this is a stock Jim Cramer said he wants to short which is hilarious because now up 3.4 percent. Uh, if you want to inverse Kramer I would just be risking the most recent low at 10 20, it's trading at 10 90.

I'm not playing this one, but in reality, you'd also want to be looking for this breakout about above 1180 for some form of a confirmation. so maybe pay attention to that. Anheuser-Busch is reporting this week. Uh, obviously there's a lot of social craziness going on with Anheuser-Busch so I'll be paying attention to it I Have no play I Don't imagine how any of their stuff could be good right now.

You have pressure from one side to cut off the partnership with Dylan Mulvaney Then you have pressure from the other side saying like, if you don't keep the partnership, you're a trans folks So they've painted themselves into a corner like a crazy crazy situation. so I'll be listening to it because I'm just curious from the social sentiment standpoint, how much of their sales actually took a hit. Is it all just social media talk? or is there a legitimate business punishment for doing what they did? So we're gonna end up finding out once again I have no position on it I'm just paying attention to him. We talked about Mullen we talked about Apple we didn't talk about Snapchat Snapchat gap down after their earnings coming back a little bit.

Maybe there's an upside gaffle, but I mean Snapchat's just been a failing company like pretty much ever since. it's IPO like it did well at one point craziness in 2021, the end of 2021 and ever since then, just dying, dying, dying, dying. uh, and really, it died and now it's just not doing anything to me. There's better.

Capital Efficiency. This