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RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
DISCLOSURE:
I have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMC & GME either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives.
Of the plan, i don't think you understand - i see them on the ground while they take some rubber bands. I'm working on my foreign exchanges out in japan, quarter million philly 50 grand in michigan appearance in atlanta. That's another 20 bands bring it back to the crib ain't invested in my daughter. Yes, she only three months, but we working on a brand new y'all can keep the bando.
I got a plan to put my baby in a lambo and buy your properties in melee and orlando and let her run the family business when i'm 50. I might learn to play the banjo country boy with dope dreams. I'm trying to open up a clinic for the dope fiends and drop a mig in on the schooling of some dope team. You see the money ain't, the mission, but the mission is to make it make a difference.
I'm the man what up well i'ma, break it down one time on the man and i'm letting y'all know yeah we getting there look, i think they get it. I know i got some critics, but still i'm fully committed to building a legacy with my family. That's a great team, great friends, living the bread from 2018, keep the circle small, as you can hard, as it may seem, put the vision down in the paper. No time to daydream, put the plan out an emotion and make it mainstream.
We gon get you out of the struggle and help you make green strike. King ain't got no problem, we're still whipping up some fake beans and rocking chucks with a t-shirt and some straight jeans and take the money that i would have wasted and go open. Restaurants in beijing, but we international and tune them out when they start saying you irrational. You see, i'm really setting up for the giving girl and getting knowledge to my daughter.
She gon na finish what i started like i told you, i'm the man put up well, i'ma break it down one time on the man and i'm letting y'all know hustle baby. You know, ah welcome. Welcome, welcome! Welcome back to another fun-filled week of trading, we're kicking off the newest trading month of may a new month, a new you, let's see, if we're going to all stick to our new trading rules, a lot of stuff to go over we're still in the craziness of It still in the thick of it with earnings, so we'll be going over all the earnings we'll be looking at the big picture of what's going on. In terms of the macroeconomic backdrop, particularly this week, we will be talking about monetary policy.
What do i mean by that you're like what the hell is monetary policy, the fed? You know those people in like weird suits. You know that organization that has over 2 000 employees that, like 400 of them, have phds and then yet they're still wrong about inflation. Those guys yeah yeah, they have a big meeting this week. It starts tomorrow.
It ends on wednesday may the 4th we get the result at 2 pm et and then powell himself, the chairman of the fed, will be speaking at 2. 30.. Now that's going to be wildly important because you don't fight the fed. That's the trend basically do not fight the fed if they come in hawkish. Look for things to sell off, i'm talking about equities and crypto if they come in dovish. Look for things to rip higher it's in this scenario and this time around hawkish is bearish. Dovish is bullish, so obviously we'll be covering that as we get closer and closer. I just want to call it out, because i mean this week last week this week.
It's going to be two of the most volatile weeks, we've seen in a hot minute now, on top of it, of course, there's still drama in the whole twitter saga, so we'll be going over that. I have some other interesting things i want to get into about. Crypto in general, just because we had the berkshire hathaway meeting and they were talking about equities and bubbles, and they were basically calling bitcoin and really crypto. What was it a venereal disease? They were calling it rat poison and they were also calling it evil.
And when i say they, i'm talking about warren buffett and charlie munger, so we'll be getting into that and then we'll be laying out some levels, and i know a lot of you, my my fellow d-gens in here you're, probably more interested in market open because we're Gon na let the robot rip again today and basically what you guys say, goes and i'll give you the recap, but the quick tl dr on how the account is going uh. It was funded with 20k and we started on tuesday of last week. We've had four trading days. It went 10 for 11 were up 12 grand, which is over a 50 gain in four trading days and literally you've seen all the trades i've been showing it to you and hey positive news on all that.
I also figured out how to make things bigger, so you guys can actually see the numbers without like having to squint really close and like bring your phone or your computer like right up to your face. So we're crushing that one and i'm excited for that and really i think it's going to lead to some bigger things. In fact, big announcement for the whole moon gang community listen up and i'll remind you guys of all this in a little bit as more and more people come in, but big big, an announcement, so everyone this is what's going on over the past couple weeks, we've Been testing out new things on the channel and one of the things i'm seeing is a lot of people are like okay power hour no power hour. Do we want crypto? Do we not want crypto? The common vein i'm seeing is basically we need a more consistent and also it seems there to be a desire for a longer a longer show.
So here's what we're going to start today we're going to do the new show from 9 a.m to noon. It's now going to be a three-hour show and when this within that show we're going to do everything, we've been doing, but i want to add more things on, and this is really going to relate to quite a few of you we're going to start bringing on More guests we're going to start doing some other things. Obviously, we're going to be continuing with the trading we're going to cover some of the pop culture things we're going to look at some of the degenerate bets that really make me smile that we're seeing on wall street bets uh we're gon na start, bringing on more Guests and whatever is like the hot sector of the day, we're gon na bring people on that have a little bit more expertise than myself, because i have zero expertise. We're gon na be bringing them on to talk. So we're going to have expert guests we're going to have you guys doing call-ins we're going to still do this active trade and as the trading account gets bigger and bigger, we're going to start doing more fun stuff with it, whether it's some like hood rat stuff, That'll make us all smile, or maybe just better things for the world like identifying some good charities or maybe doing some trading accounts for some of you guys, maybe funding it overall, the stream's going to get bigger and we're going to do more and more and more And now, on a personal note, what's happening with me: is this airbnb that i'm in i'm not going to miami quite yet. I just need a little bit more time, so i'm going to be hopping over to a different airbnb for a couple months. So i'm going to do my best to make it a full-on studio, but then, by the time i get to miami, it's going to be a legitimate full-on studio and overall there's now more people on the moon, gang team. We've been hiring it's getting bigger and bigger and bigger, and some of the things like this has been something that's been in the works now for the past month, i'm very very, very excited, and the goal of it is to really create the best content.
I possibly can, for all of you we're going to create an awesome community. It's just going to get bigger and bigger and bigger. It's already awesome we're just going to get sizeable and what the goal is is basically we're going to take out mainstream financial media. If you think of your cnbc, your fox or msnbc or cnn, any of these dinosaurs that choose to speak about finance, they are all on our hit list.
My goal is not looking at: what's going on rumble or youtube or twitch the goal, our competitors are, these guys in the stuffy suits, who they say what they're told to say. They really don't have that personal connection with anyone. What this is going that that's, where it's going bigger than all those guys that is now the goal of this channel, the biggest financial news source that you guys actually care about, that you can actually trust so we're going to get rocking with it today. Are there going to be some kinks along their own 100, but i think that's one of the coolest things on this side of the camera.
Is i get to talk to you guys this? All these decisions came from asking you guys of what should we be doing? Um, so for me uh when in doubt i always come back to you guys the community and ask what do you want the most so do not ever hesitate to reach out to me, ask shoot me a dm hey. I like this idea. I didn't like this. I think you could do this. These are people you should talk to. This is our group. I very much view this. The whole moon gang.
That's exactly what it is, we're all in the moon gang together. So if you have any ideas or if you do like something, don't like something, i'm just a dm away, so i wanted to cover all that before we get into the whole market breakdown today and obviously we'll either clip that or just i'll remind you guys later, But let's turn this all over and before. Actually we got to give a special shout out to today's stream sponsor public hey. If you want up to 70 of free stock sign up for public, you could use the code matt or you could just click on the link in the description of the video.
It's also pinned at the top of chat. It's free free, 70. Up to 70. You sign up, there's no payment for order flow.
There's, no market makers, it's a brokerage that you can actually trust, especially if you saw what happened with robin hood last week. It is a dumpster fire of a situation and that's what happens when your clientele retail traders, like you retail traders, like me, just don't trust them public is something i wholeheartedly trust and right now it there's no love lost. I mean you sign up. You get rocked when the account and you could get up to 70 free and you can see if it's for you, but once again it the code is matt.
It's pinned to the top of chat. You could just go to public.com course and in terms of the stocks that i'm kind of just like diamond, ending, that's the account that you can see them in if your friends are on public or if you want to see what i'm in, you can actually like Verify if they're holding not holding if they bought if they sold on public, it has a little bit of that social media aspect that i think is very, very cool, so once again sign up for it, you have nothing to lose now. Let's switch this over to the important stuff, really probably while you're in here like okay, how are we going to make money today, or maybe you're in here, to see what type of degenerate trading i'll be doing to see if i'll make or lose money anyway, we're? Looking a bit red the dow, the s p and the nasdaq are all in the red earlier this morning they were showing some greenness, but it's not holding. In fact, in pre-market, we have now hit a new year-to-date low on the s p.
500. Obviously, it's not 9 30 yet so we have about 20 minutes to go to see how that's all going to play out, but we're seeing quite a bit of red oil is coming down, potentially most likely going to be testing that key psychological and key technical level Of 100 and also pay attention to yields, they are ripping. Once again, this whole scenario of why i talk about yields. I know a lot of the times when i'm doing this um the dow just flashed a little bit of green when we're talking about yields going up. Remember that's going to be moving inverse to the overall market so as you're seeing a spike in yields as you're. Seeing a spike in the dollar as you're, seeing a spike in inflation, which is going to force the fed to be more hawkish all this has the end result of more of a bearish environment on equities and on crypto. You got to pay attention to it because whether you have a favorite ticker or not all these are going to be in the same boat of if the market is like collapsing on us, which i don't know. If it's going to do that, do i think there's going to be a serious sell-off.
100. I don't know how bad it's going to be, because the name of the game is ride the trend, but you got to be paying attention to the overall market. Even if you don't even want to trade it, if you just care about one or two or five individual equities or cryptos whatever's, your favorite, you still have to know what's going on in the overall market which brings us to this week. Don't forget about the fed.
I want to let you know what's actually going on in terms of like numerix here wall street week, ahead, rocky stock market faces fed tests with eyes on tightening plans. So that's qt, quantitative, tightening before you've, probably heard of qe quantitative easing that's when they were putting a bunch of money into the whole system. Quantitative tightening is taking it out and it's that number how many billions a month are they going to do right now? The estimation is between 90 and 100, which is a number that's never been done before, but if they come in on top of that number, that is very hawkish and, as you know, in this scenario, that means very bearish. A volatile stock market faces the critical test.
Next week, when the u.s federal reserve is expected to raise interest rates and give more insight on its plans for tightening monetary policy to fighting surging inflation worries over an increasingly hawkish fed have helped drag the s p down 13.3 percent so far in 2022, it's the Steepest four-month decline to start any year since 1939, one more time for the people in the back what we just experienced in the past one third of a year past, four months, the steepest decline to the start of any year since 1939. My point in really emphasizing this is what you're dealing with what you're seeing in the market. It's abnormal. This isn't really a commonality of what's occurring, you're, actually kind of really witnessing historic volatility and historic actions, not only within the market but obviously also from the fed.
Now, more from the quantitative start of things, we're kicking off the month of may april, typically very bullish. We didn't see that in this april, if you're just starting now look at the last month, it was not the bullishness that we typically see in seasonality. This time around in may uh seasonally it kind of dips, but not much, but there is more of a bearish hue. I would say for the first three quarters and then right at the end of may we get a pump until about mid-june and mid-june. Just so you know is also quadruple-wishing, we'll talk about that when things are a little bit closer, but i just want to let you know where we're at from a seasonal perspective of just what those influences are or aren't, but this time around. Yes, this bearishness might be aligning with like the bearishness really of the fed and our overall economy. An embargo on russian oil could trigger a recession in europe, and investors are underpricing disruptions to energy supplies according to barclays. So, as i was talking about oil, it's coming down a little bit, but there is a renewed whoa.
All right, you got ta chill siri siri, really just coming out of nowhere. Just listening to all of our great training advice, all right anyway, renewed thoughts, and i think they're, fair thoughts that oil could continue to be ripping to the high heavens, and this is talking about europe - doing an embargo on russian petroleum products. Obviously, that would lessen global supply at least supply that can be utilized, and if that happens, demand is going to be staying. The same remember we saw reports coming out of europe that they think demand's actually going to be going higher into the april may june time period, so demand going up supply going down.
That means price continues to go up so something that needs to be paid attention to and honestly, if there's a lot of red in the market, you might have one thing that kind of escapes that redness, it might be an investment into some of these energy plays Energy stocks are still under appreciated as the best equity investment right now, amid soaring commodity prices and slowing supply according to jp morgan, so the ones that i'm a little bit biased towards right. Now, probably i really like devon energy dvn just because it has a really good dividend. So that's something that i'd be comfortable just getting in and like kind of just sitting there and collecting the dividend payments quarter over quarter. You could obviously look at the big ones.
Such as exxon or chevron, there's many ways to do it or you could play an etf or you could play oil directly through the commodities market or you could do an oil fund or you could. If you want to go the way of buffett, you could play occidental, which is oxy, there's many many ways to get exposure to energy. So i just wanted to list a couple there to all of you. Another sub sector, that's doing very well, is real estate.
In fact, in the past two years, two years - 24 months, real estate has popped by about 6 trillion and what i mean by pop by 6 trillion. That's how much new wealth has been created in the past 24 months of just people owning houses, they've gone up in totality by 6 trillion. That's trillion with the t in just 24 months so and that is kind of a a common really inflationary. Hedge is buying land buying property, and that is obviously i mean for any of the homeowners out there. If most likely, you just paid more in taxes on your house, because real estate is just popping through the roof, you're hearing all these crazy stories of bidding wars. In fact, it's getting so insane that the bidding wars are actually spilling over into the world of rentals and people are out bidding each other on just rental places. So if you're the owner, it's awesome, but if you're, just the person who's renting right now, like costs are going sky high, absolutely sky high. So we've heard a little bit about bill gates.
Lately uh he was getting completely dunked on by our boy, elon musk. When elon said hey, do you want to lose your boner quickly and he compared him to the pregnant, like man emoji on twitter, uh, well, he's backing in the news and not in the best of ways. Bill gates says, there's way above a five percent risk. We haven't seen the worst of the ronan 19 period, so people kind of calling him out of hey man like he might be right, but a lot of people on social media are at least saying.
This is a little bit more of fear-mongering. Now i'm not a virologist myself, i'm not a scientist, so i'm not the person to ask of is it. I mean i read things such as, like italy and greece. They just relax some of their guidelines around this they're going for tourism so like they relaxed it.
In a positive way, last week or two weeks ago, uber got rid of their face mandate. Uh, i believe planes right, i think planes you don't have to have your mask on anymore they're. Dropping that so it seems like people are like it's going in the way of getting better. So maybe that's why a lot of people are calling them out for fear-mongering, but it very quickly turned from a conversation of rhona to bringing up our boy epstein.
Once again, bill gates says he made a huge mistake: meeting the jeffrey epstein for fundraising, dinners, promoting the gates foundation, and now it's like 100 100, giving us one of the most awkward interviews that could possibly be had. You have to listen to this. This is obviously from pbs. What did you know about him when you were meeting with him as you've said yourself in the hopes of raising money at the end, like the awkwardness just rips, through this with him uh, i regret doing that.
He had relationships with uh people, he said you know, would give to global health, which is a uh interest. I have you know not nearly enough philanthropy goes in that direction. Uh. You know those meetings were were a mistake.
They didn't result in uh what he purported and i cut them off. You know that goes back a long time ago, so far giving him the nice media response. It was reported that you continue to meet with him overseas. This is where it goes downhill, um and that, in other words, a number of meetings um. What did you do when you found out about his background? Well, you know i've said i regretted having those dinners uh and there's nothing, absolutely nothing new on that. Is there a lesson for you for anyone else? Looking looking at this well he's dead, so uh, you know in general, you always have to be careful uh and wait. Did you catch that part uh? You know in general, you always have to be careful uh in general. You always have to be careful like maybe not the best use of words for what happened to epstein, and you know the you know, i'm i'm very proud of what we've done in philanthropy very proud of the work of the foundation uh.
You know: that's that's what i get up every day and focus on um, so yeah he's dead, it's so wild like dude bill, get a little bit more media training, like probably the most awkward way to handle that so right away. That whole saga is resurfacing now, because bill gates is back in the news with the whole virus and now they're pointing out his connections to epstein, because that's the way the internet goes now over the weekend, they berkshire hathaway run by warren buffett, charlie munger. They had their meeting and, of course, you always get. Some interesting quotes out of them very interesting warren buffett and i would say interesting in both ways.
Some things i wholeheartedly agree with and then other things that i'm like dude, maybe you're, just a little bit too old. Sometimes the stock market is quite investment, oriented and other times it's almost totally a casino, a gambling parlor. That's us he's talking about us he's saying i don't like these complete degenerates and he's talking about you he's talking about me and that existed to an extraordinary degree in the last couple of years, encouraged by wall street. I think it's resume worthy.
I hope you guys are talk like updating your linkedin right now i mean you know what we're talking about we're talking about the fact that warren buffett he spoke about you. He said i don't like these d gens in my game: hey guys congrats now he did have some harsh words on the world of btc. If you told me, you owned all the bitcoin in the world and you offered it to me for 25 - i wouldn't take it because i wouldn't know what to do with it. I would have to sell it back to one way or another.
It isn't going to do anything now, 25 for a dude who's worth many billions. I think that's been a little bit frugal. I mean i've spent way more dump money on way, dumber things than owning all of bitcoin and i get he's being a little hyperbolic. But i think he's just kind of missing of what bitcoin is and we'll be talking more about that we'll be doing a deep dive into like what this does.
It doesn't mean where i think he personally got it wrong, which i understand is absolutely hilarious. He's a legendary investor, who's made billions of dollars, and i am a guy who yields at a camera for a living and i've made a couple attendees. We were not very very far away from having something that might have been a repeat of 2008 or worse um. This he's referring to how it played out the pandemic, but in terms of the economy in the stock market. I don't know if we're necessarily done because think about it this time around when we got out of 2008, it was because the government intervened this time. Things were already being assisted as much as they possibly can, so we can't count on the assistant if we fall this time, because it's that assistance that got us into the situation we're in. So it's very much a catch-22. So i don't know if this is necessarily a chapter.
That's concluded. The best thing to do is basically shut up and have a bunch of people facing consequences that they didn't ask for in the first place now this is in response to him talking about political issues. So, okay, one of them, i think's interesting, the other one. I think he's just congratulating us and one of them i disagree with this - is the one i agree with.
So when it comes to politics, the best thing to do is basically shut up. I very much would love that for many companies out there like. I don't need to hear from triscuits why i need to have some political opinion or not like this concept, that every single brand has to put out political comments on every single political development um. I think this is a breath of fresh air of just the best thing to do is basically shut up.
If you're trading stocks go trade stocks, if you're making triscuits go make triscuits if you're, making cheez-its continue with making the best snack of all time. If you're someone who just continues to give us the nectar of the gods, sangria great, we don't need your politics involved in that now, a little bit older, a little bit his senior charlie munger uh, really not mincing his words in the slightest we've got people. You know nothing about stocks being advised by stock brokers, who know even less now he's really banging on robin hood here and i do have something i want to talk about with charlie munger and robin hood and all that. But i can't help but feel that he's really thrown a low blow at me personally on this one: hey, charlie munger, if you want, i know you can make quite a bit of money off a youtube boxing match.
We can set it up with dana white and if you want to throw down mr munger hey, let's do it. I feel like it'd, be a fair fight in my life. I try and avoid things that are stupid, evil and make me look bad in comparison to someone else. Bitcoin does all three, so both buffett and munger are just not having it with bitcoin, like i said, we'll be getting into more of that now.
He really did so once again. I disagree on that this one i feel like in a personal assault on me and then the third one is one i agree with. It was disgusting. Now it's unraveling there's been some justice and this is all in reference to robin hood. It was disgusting. Now it's unraveling there's been some justice, so i do want to talk about payment for order flow and what's been going on with robinhood and all of that. But let's save that for after the market opens, and we see that craziness, because i know we're getting kind of close there. Don't forget with twitter we're still in that drama, and the newest thing is there's a lot of people saying: hey changes are on the horizon and it looks like we might be getting a new ceo so something to pay attention to in terms of netflix.
They just canceled meghan markle's animated series, um they really these people with - i don't know big namesake and they've done deals with netflix and spotify. A lot of them have been losing their positions lately, obama's to an exclusive deal with spotify. Now. Is that why why is it so good that other people are giving them more money? Does spotify not have the money to pay or spotify saying actually the numbers that you think you have aren't that good to us and we're gon na? Let you out of the deal, obviously i'm not an insider to spotify, so i don't know but just interesting interesting to see these big name people with the deals and something is there's a lot of change afoot.
Speaking of change, we're going to obviously see massive change in the markets if you want to quickly screenshot this or check it out on earnings. Whispers here are all the major earnings this week, uh ones i'll be paying attention to devon energy. Remember that's after the market closes today. I like that one just because of its dividend before the market opens tomorrow we have pfizer marathon hilton after the market closes amd.
So that's what i'll be looking at over the next two days. Modern is on wednesday, and just to give you a quick update on that one, they are now applying for the fda to give their shots to people who are under six years of age. This one has nothing to do with the market. I just needed your opinion on it: florida-based tropicana introducing cereal specifically made for orange juice.
Now your initial knee-jerk reaction might be whoa. Is that legal and it is i looked it up - there are no laws against using your base liquid as orange juice, instead of milk. So i know i know it might be crazy. Go talk to a lawyer.
Your mind will be blown similar to mine. That you're allowed to do this, i don't know, is this. I need to know. Is this bullish, or is this bearish, because i know it's absolutely absurd, but yeah we're going to have oj based cereal, and i just it has to mean something i just don't know, particularly what it actually means.
So i wanted to share that with you very quickly. Amc short interest is the same as it's been. Gme short interest is the same that it's been. We have not been seeing big moves in ames or jimmy lately, so if you want to quickly screenshot this, but it's been the same for about the past month now now turning it over to the market, let me quickly switch to the one day. Um, you guys know the name of the game. We are 10 for 11 trades. We the account it's slowly but surely growing. The first week was a huge success.
The main lesson i have learned is to trust all of you at, like you guys have been crushing it whoa all right, we're gon na end this morning's poll. Just so i can prep up the code and it looks like you guys have been betting heavily heavily on the bearish side. 62. All right.
The fact that you guys are this confident. You know what this is telling me: we are going to go for a thousand dollars out of the gate at 9, 30 in less than a minute or just a minute, we're going to sell three contracts, we're going to pray for market, open volatility and we're going For 1k, 1k 1k 1k: we're going to see how this all goes, get ready, get ready, get ready, get ready, get ready, get ready, um, i'm hoping that you guys can see this today we have um, i made it bigger. I made all. I changed all the font i possibly could so i hope you guys can see this, but the algorithm is turned on that's what this green is in the top left.
You guys voted to the downside. We're gon na see how this goes. We're gon na see how this goes uh. We are seconds away, get ready 20 seconds, let's basically see if you guys are about to how are you going to kick off the week? I i see why you guys are saying on the bearish side, because things are not looking the best in pre-market trading.
We did in fact hit a new year-to-date low, but that was pre-mark, so i don't know if it like really fully counts. But let's see if the code's working today, the casino is open. Um, you guys weren't that right out of the gate, team uh very quickly went down. A thousand very quickly went down one thousand.
What were you guys messing with me this morning? What's going on here? Also, why can't i adjust this um? It should be down like one more. Why can't i adjust that this is not a fun opening. I should have listened to the minority here. The one-third of you had this right, and also i just want to quickly drag this down to a thousand.
Why can't i do it? I guess because the code see and why i figured this out. I was thinking about this quite a bit over the weekend. It's because it fired here, but then it got the fill at the next bar open. So it's that little difference that it's calculating it kind of actually on the wrong entry point: it's calculating it on the previous bar.
But then you can see that slight difference in the jump, but i wish i could just by hand adjust it anyway, as you can see we're going for 880 750, and if we were long we would have got filled like right away right away come on. I need my money where's, the money where's, the money, all right, all right all right and we can easily track that just with the spy. Remember: that's the s, p, 500 futures market and the reason i'm using it is just because it's a like a lot more leverage. It's way more fun for the game, it's way more fun for our particular game and just to remind you, we're trying to get the fill at four thousand one hundred and twenty up it's coming. Are we going to get the foo? Are we going we're almost break? Even again, come on come on chat, you've, never you've. Never, given me bad information, let's at least go back like just give me a little bit of green. Just give me a little bit of green come on break even break even just. Let's just see the green in the account we got ta kick this week off on a good foot.
Oh no! It's going the opposite way, come on, just just bring it down just what's warren buffett doing. Why isn't warren buffett, helping what leverage uh the futures market? I mean that's a very in-depth conversation, because different futures contracts have a different leverage rate uh, but the tldr is extremely leveraged. If you think options are leveraged, uh like futures are even more leveraged, i mean, as you can see, a couple points went the wrong way and that was already down like a thousand like it's just that little distance was a thousand bucks. Then again, not only is it leveraged, but i also did three contracts, so that gives you kind of an idea all right.
Well, this is taking a little bit too long for my liking. So you all know what that means. You all know what that means. We're gon na have to do a little bit of manipulation just a little bit there.
We go we're gon na break the magnet out there. We go we're gon na drag it down. Obviously we need some red there. We go magnet, always works.
It's a surefire thing. It's a surefire thing magnet is on and we're most likely going to hit our profit target, all right, we're back in the green. Let's go, let's do this: let's do this come on! No! No! No! No! No! No! No fill it give us our money. Give us our money come to daddy, come to daddy where's, my money i got to pay.
My bills got ta pay my bills, nope we're close. Well, we were up jesus. No! No! No! No! No! Oh whoa is me just just give us our fill, so we can focus on the next trade come on, come on order boom 887, just like that. Obviously, there's a little bit of transaction fees, but the closed p l already is 878.
bada bing bada boom winner winner chicken dinner congrats guys you guys are on the ball today. I knew it. I knew easy calm cool collected. We did it, we did it team, easy, peasy, lemon, squeezies, easy peasy, lemon squeezies, all right.
Well, the magnet, obviously well the magnet really up the market right there. Sorry about that, if you guys are long, just understand that you shouldn't be fighting against the magnets. If you have magnets on your chart, let's put it this way, there's always new people coming in saying matt that doesn't make sense. Why would we put emojis on the chart like how there's no way that actually does anything? I would answer that question and it's a fair question: there's always new people cycling into the market? Why would they give us emojis if they didn't, do anything think about that? The fact that they are being offered to us? It tells me that yes, you're supposed to use them, for example, if you want it to go up, you could use a rocket if you want it to go down. Maybe you saw this last week we attached an anchor to it. Hence why they give you an anchor folks. This is all science like. I don't make the rules, it's the classic, saying, don't hate the player hate the game, but there's a reason they give you this stuff.
I mean look at this. If you guys want to see it go down a little bit more, i need to properly attach it uh. Where do we have the three? Where is our anchor? How do we properly attach this? Is it in this one path? Nope nope, nope nope cancel. Oh, my anchor, you just need where's our anchor string here we go there, you go, that's how you bring the market down now a lot of you be like.
How did you learn this? Well, i learned it from two major players: uh one just fortunate to have connections on wall street and they're like yeah. No, this is what a hedge fund looks like if you want to know what goes on on a daily basis like within melvin capital. Point 72 citadel, any of those. It's all people who are fully informed about the world of emoji-based training right now, there's a good chance that some of the biggest hedge funds on this planet - they just have gigantic anchors and or magnets, depending on the day and obviously there's seasonality and whatnot, and it Takes a lot of people to be informed now, another fair question might be well.
How did people learn about this in the first place and really there's just super old documents written in latin that, like it took years and years to decipher and there's not many people who, like fully understand it, but there's a couple things that are shared here and There with the rest of the community um, but as you can see, pretty damaging pretty damaging to the overall market. It's just it is what it is. In fact, this is so bad. We just hit a new year to date, low we just broke a year.
To date, low, which is absolutely ridiculous - absolutely ridiculous, uh, you guys are this - could potentially get out of hand. Is there anything that's green surprisingly, netflix is green. Uh twitter is green. Well, that's not that surprising.
It's a red day! It's it's looking to be a quite the red day. Now after we watch the volatile opening, there are like i said i want to talk about robin hood and payment for order flow. How is hood doing i'm expecting a new all-time low, almost a new all-time low? Let's see robin hood price target on robin hood, i'm going to take a page out of the rich greenfield playbook and call out a cent. I don't think it's worth nothing, but i do think it's worth a cent very basically as close to as nothing as we can get it. That's my price target on hood. As i said at this point months and months ago, when i was asked about it uh i am, i can sum up my robinhood position in three words, my opinion on robin hood, bearish, bearish bearish - that that's the three words i would use on robin hood now. If you guys want you can stop the market from selling off by just getting rid of your anchor. You could just cut the anchor and then obviously like with a normal anchor.
If you cut the line, that's exactly when you see the bounce, because folks, i'm not making this up. This is why you need emojis when it comes to trading, just cut the anchor and it bounces. This is science. This is science all right.
How are we doing we're a couple minutes in 10 minutes and let's see what the big players are doing, the big players, the big players. So, in terms of four days out, we have uh right away the thing that jumps out at me. The premium is two-thirds bearish already like first 10 minutes into the day. Uh there's been money thrown on the bearish side, but what's interesting is for four days out we're actually seeing some tesla calls.
There are some tesla puts as well uh we're having some q puts those are 46 days out in terms of the short warrant in terms of the short term ones, the ones that are basically people are trying to get exposure to. What's going to be happening with the fed, don't forget: that's wednesday, 2 p.m, and then we get j pal speaking at 2, 30. uh the four day ones are an amazon put for 115 000. We have a spy put that just came in 18 days out.
Big money, 1.52 million for tesla call call call those are for four days out kind of undoing what we saw in some of those uh. A tesla put for four days out a spy put for four and nine uh big spy put. This is the biggest trade of the day, 3.85 million on spy for 18 days out 18 days out 3.85 million. So do all these big players always get it right? No, not necessarily, but it is interesting to see over the past about week and a half the options market has been, notably notably bearish in terms of the spy people looking at levels.
Yes, we just hit a new year to date, low um, year-to-date, we're now down 13 on the week, we're down 3.3 on the month, we're down 10 those types of percentage moves for the overall market. It's noteworthy, i think the next stop. You have two options: 404 and 400 400 is a gap fill and you guys know how i feel about gab fills but basically you're, looking at the high of april first, what's that a little around a year ago april, 1st of 2021, we have a high of 467., if we do not quickly - and i mean quickly recapture this level - i would be watching 404, which is previous support, and it's also the closest thing to fill this gap and then the actual gap bill is at 467.. So we have a gap, fill aligning with the key technical level. So once again, i'm not going in on those plays yet because i want to see if the bulls are going to step up at the level we're at right now. Obviously, i will let you know, and this is what happens. Obviously, the jokes with the anchor, but in reality this is also a key level, so you can naturally expect that some people are going to try to buy it because your risk is minimal. Think about it.
If you're coming down to support - and you invest that support, if the support breaks, you could cut your losses with a paper cut, so people are going to try to throw money on it and it's just more like you're looking at your person, you're right you're. Looking at your person to your left and you're, saying: okay, are we all gon na buy it and if enough people buy that's when you get this pop um, this makes a lot of sense. Will the pop hold well over the past week, none of the pops held like given enough time they all sold off, hence why we just hit a new year to date low. But when you cut the anchor and when you realize you're at support, that's you don't want to get greedy, you were at it and it broke down a little bit, but then a buyer stepped up and we're pushing.
So. This is why you have to be careful with those levels. That's why, before the market opens, you should be doing a little bit of your own ta, saying: okay, here's how i'm going to react in this scenario scenario: a b c d: that's what you need to do you had to know this was an important level and It popped above it so if you were shorting it down, not the worst idea to lock in some of the attendees uh spy yeah green on the day, netflix getting a bit of a pump hood, somehow going up green on the day, tesla going up. Let's see how twitter is doing twitter coming down, taking a little bit of a breather that tech, heavy sector, the qs, the nasdaq 100, a little bit of volatility right there interesting interesting, how's, the small cap sector, doing tracked by iwm, that's also pushing so we saw About 10 minutes of selling off and then a pop, and then this is kind of a good rule of like as long as you're, not trading like a complete degenerate like me, like, if you're actually trying to formulate like legit trading plans.
Even if it's a day trading plan, that's why i personally, like the mantra of like let's see how the first 15 minutes play out, because if you chase into this well, you could get rocked pretty hard and it's fair. You could say, but matt you traded at 9 30. like you broke your own rule and you're right, i'm a degenerate, there's a difference between being a degenerate and like we could still talk about like actual good training methodology and good training ideas, um, there's a complete Difference it's one of those things is like do, as i say, not as i do uh folks psychologically, i'm working through a lot of things. So, like there's no way you should just like copy what i do. That would be that's a recipe to lose. Um amd uh pushing remember earnings tomorrow, someone monthly spy calls to at least 4 20. now. Okay, we need to talk about this because i've been seeing more and more people like okay at this level of support should you buy spy calls.
Let me give you my opinion on why spy calls are always a bad idea, always a bad idea, and this gets into a little bit of the nitty-gritty of how options hang on the spy getting rejected at its intraday high. Should we short it? Should we short it? You think this is coming back down getting smacked, getting smacked team danny said yes and danny's like a real, a real straight shooter. So if danny says yes, he knows what he's talking about as you heard order filled order filled order, filled order filled order filled. Oh wait, you guys didn't see it danny told me to short, so i went short and we're already up 900.
already a thousand um. How do i get out of this? Okay? You guys get the point. Oh sorry, it's frozen. Can you guys see this right now, my screen's being a little bit laggy on me? Um, you get the idea, we'd love to see a retest of basically 4100 in the futures market.
That's going to be a level of attraction just because it's a key psychological level! People love to buy and sell at these nice levels of 4100 or even the 25 increments. We shot back up it kind of turned right back over and we'll see how it goes and my risk pretty reasonable, we'll see how it plays out we'll see how it plays out, but back to our important conversation of why. I don't like spy calls think about this when it comes to options, if you're looking at a spy call option, there's a couple things that come into play of how it gets its premium, i.e its value. Yes, is it the is part of the equation of its pricing, the value of the underlying asset, as in almost 412 in real time, that's important, 100, but there's two other things that are also extremely important and need to be considered.
Number one is the time until expiration, with less and less time until expiration, as in expiring tomorrow versus a month or two out with less time. That inherently means that there's well. It statistically means that you're going to have less of a chance for a big move. Just because there's less time to trade, so inherently with less time until expiration, your contract is less valuable.
That's important! Now the other thing - and this is really the crux of the argument for spy - is volatility. When volatility is up, options calls and puts are worth more. So when you come into pricing, it's the value of the underlying asset, the time until expiration and volatility. But now remember when you're talking about the s p 500, if you're buying a call that means you're betting on the s, p 500 go up. But if the s p 500 is going up, that means that volatility is coming down so inherently if you're right, you're actually wrong, because you might be right and like hey man, i called it. The spy went up it popped here and that's great. You made a good directional call but think about what it means for the pricing of the thing that you just bet on. You're hurting the value of your call, because volatility is going to come down the s.
P 500 moves inversely to the vix, which the volatility right here. This is the that's what the vix is. It is the volatility of the s. P 500, as the spy goes up.
Volatility comes down. That's why i don't like playing reversionary bounces through spy calls, because, if you're right, you're actually kind of wrong now with that being said, you're like but well, how can i do it like if you feel very, very confident that the spy is going to bounce you're, Like well, you might be wondering okay like well. How can i get exposure to that? I think a more reasonable way to do. It is actually betting against volatility.
You could get u v x y puts so you're, basically saying i think the spy is going to go up, which we know there's an inverse relationship with volatility. As in if you're right, the spy goes up. U v x y is going to come down and as u v x y is going to come down remember this is a little bit more meta, but the volatility of volatility itself is increasing, so you're going to get kind of a like a bonus in terms Of your premium value as for owning uv xy puts that's why i don't play spy calls if i think the spy is going to go up, and i want to play it through options, i'm going to get u v x y puts instead, and it's just really How options are priced um if there are, if you have, questions, obviously feel free to let them fire and if you wholeheartedly disagree with me, feel free to also lit that fire, but understand that it'll probably also make me cry, because i don't like confrontation just throwing That out there so for anyone who has mean mean words, still learning, of course my iv crush, wouldn't be as bad for farther out expirations right. I see your point valid bro good, to hear in a roundabout way, this is still very equivalent to iv crush because when you're coming down your volatility is high and when you swing back around and you bounce, that's your iv getting crushed.
This is a roundabout way to talk about iv crush um and in that whole discussion i wanted to where were we the the play? That's live was up a lot. I just wanted to put in a price target a price target, a price target: mm-hmm um, okay, cool, oh, hey, that's cool uh! Why was that freezing uh? But are there any ater? People are screaming ater at me. Did it recapture 530? Because, if it did, it did remember, 530 is an important line in the sand for ater and just to give you the update on ater. I know there's a lot of aider gators in here. So let me just quickly throw this out to all of you. Shorts uh, so this is for a tyrion, 41 short interest costs. A borrow of 254 percent utilization is maxed out uh and it is on the threshold list honestly, this short interest with this cost to borrow and the fact that there's so many ftds fails to deliver. That's you need those consecutively to get on the threshold list, which tells me something is basically going on in the background that should not be going on uh.
This is it becomes a powder keg um for it to be a big big powder keg. You would actually want the float to be smaller, so i would say: that's like the one thing preventing it from being a five-star like set up. This is more of like a four-star, i would argue um, but another feather in the cap of a tyrion is the ceo. If you check him out on twitter is like out he's very public in his fight against the shorts um.
So, basically, in november, he tweeted out that the company has like uncovered information that they have been like illegally shorted. So i like that, the ceo is actually like fighting for his shareholders in terms of thinking that something sus is going on, which is probably a good point, because it's on the threshold list um so uh another cap, another feather in the cap of a tyrion. I would argue and uh i just wanted to change something: okay, spy, getting a little bit of a bounce which is not good for my position, uh. What else is going on rdbx? That red box is still going no way that thing is still moving.
Wow and people are saying it just halted all right. Let me give you the numbers on red box, um. Obviously red box tyrion. Just so you guys know.
I have no position in them. Uh once again, also on the threshold list, costs borrow 356 percent utilization, maxed out 51 short interest. And if you look at the float, we are at uh. How many shares this is a low flow 1.42 million.
So talking like, if we compare this to a tyrion in terms of potential explosiveness redbox would be more because it's a lower float company. What does that mean? That means that there's just less shares and when you have less shares, that means you have less luggage and, if you've ever been running through an airport before it's easier to run. If you have less luggage with you, um, that's something very important in like if you were to compare and contrast red box to a tyrion um. Both sky high utilization sky high cost to borrow sky high short interest, but in terms of potential, and just because you have potential, i mean i have potential, but we all see how that played out uh.
Just because you have more potential doesn't mean it's actually going to work out in a better scenario, and in this case the better scenario would be a higher percentage gain. But redbox i mean that's crazy right right here. You just saw a halt up.
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