Thank You Foreign Foreign Foreign Show Where I am Matt Cores and you folks are the show And welcome to today's episode of Raiders of the Lost Stonk Temple of the retail sales coming out in a mere 90 seconds now. Maybe this is your first time meeting me, seeing me, hearing me, meeting the goonie Community as a whole and that's fine. We're going to make introductions in a second, but today is a very special show because the Market's been rippity skippity Duda and we're about to find out another macro economic report which will basically cause the market to keep rippity skippity doo-dying up or are all the Negative Nancy Bears on Twitter are going to be right and we're going to finally turn around? Well, time will tell, time will tell. We're gonna find out in 60 seconds.

So we're going to listen to the retail sales report coming out. Hopefully fingers crossed. Our boy Rick Centelli will be reporting it. He's the only person I really respect in this world of Finance reporting.

he's just an absolute barn burner of a guy. Then from there I'm going to give you a quick breakdown of what happened yesterday. a highlight of what to look forward to today, the remainder of the week. I'm going to share some updates of my current positioning on the market and then from there we're going to be doing some chart review and all that good stuff.

So hey, I hope you're having a good one I hope you had a better day yesterday than I did I Hope you made some money I hope you're ready to make a shitload of money today. Don't forget to hit the like button. Don't forget to subscribe. Become a goonie macross.locals.com It's in the description of the video.

Don't forget to check out the interview I did with the market maker that's in the description of the video on both Rumble and YouTube Everything's in the description of the video and with that being said, let me switch this over. Uh oh uh oh SpaghettiOs Oh, that is working. All right here we go. Happens again.

Watching every data point along the way Rick Santos is currently at 450 55. excuse me 450 55. everybody of course is continuing to monitor how the economy is performing from the perspective of the consumer. the bulk of the U.S economy at a time.

This is our boy. Rick's recent PODS of course looks to be temporary. Is the meeting coming up in July most assuredly is going to see a quarter point increase. We're a few seconds now away.

Here we go: Release of the June retail sale. Uh Becky We're expecting a number up about half of one percent in the rear view mirror is up three tenths. The most recent high water mark is up 2.8 that was in January of 23 and you can see it's taking a little bit of time before I can see anything passing through on the wires. Uh, maybe the most important aspect of this number is most likely going to be how it responds to the Reese the control setting.

All right. Headline number looks like it's populated across the wires. up two tenths of one percent, up two tenths of one. they were expecting 3.5 It came in at points look definitely not as strong as we were expecting.

lower than expected. It's interesting when you strip out Autos dollars, that's one percent. Both these numbers are a little light than expectations, and if you look at X autos and gas station sales exactly as expected, out up three tens, so it improved by one tenth. Once again, these numbers are close, but still a little disappointing on Headline I Don't see the control number and when it ultimately comes out of course, will be probably, uh, tickering it or we can say it on the air Becky But at this point in time, that's what's out.

We could see that interest rates left 450 55. Expectations: The equity markets are moving a bit higher, and that's most likely because rates move down and that has been the big move thus far at a day where it had an intraday high of 511.. that failure really across the curve and the pause when you add that in has certainly made a difference in the market. All right, the control numbers coming out and I'm a little bit shocked.

It's up six tenths of one percent. That is double what we're expecting. And to find a higher number, of course you would have to go to Jan of 23 not that long ago and that was up 1.7 percent. That's the high water mark.

So Up Six Tenths is pretty good. We should continue now. Dollar Now companies try to Divine whether they like it as much now that that came out, because interest rates move back up pretty much towards Unchained right at three and three quarters on a tenure back to you Andrew Okay, Rick thank you. Um, we're going to get over to Steve Wiesman now who's been crunching the numbers and uh, has a view on all this.

Steve Yeah, I mean the headline is lower than expected, but Rick is absolutely right to emphasize that Control group and I'll tell you why because that control group is a number that feeds into GDP Uh, so the Zero Six I think should generally flatter the second quarter. GDP Reports that are out there. Uh, last month when we did our rapid update, we were at 1-3 Uh, different from the Atlanta Fed, which is a 2-3 for the second quarter. But I think a bottom line on this is that we are not necessarily at or near the recession that many have predicted.

to begin. the Dollar is going Wilds on the job this morning, they are less sure about it, actually almost brought it down, sold off to a breakdown level, and then skyrocketed all abilities. Next week when we do this, and I'm talking about survey, but at the moment there is less concern about a recession given what's happened. The other number I'm looking for is real earnings that tends to come out with this report.

I Don't have it right now. but I think the story is the dollar is down towards skyrockets higher and it came right out like it saved itself. it was about to break down. Better people have more money.

Installation is not going up as much as previously. Um, we have had some move into Autos Phil's been reporting about that and we'll see what happens with things like food and discretionary items because ultimately, if prices are not Rising as fast, maybe people gravitate backwards. Maybe bouncing a little right now. Kind of unchanged.

I Don't understand the retail and consumer environment. uh, with less inflation as a big part of it Becky change may be a foot meaning meaning what Steve meaning that we're seeing consumers get tapped down I'm sorry Becky I'm having a little trouble hearing you. What are we saying sorry? uh, just a change of foot meaning what? I hear Steve I'll let I think you're having audio problems. We'll let you go on this.

Thank you. We'll see you later on. These retail sales numbers is Bill Simon who served as Walmart from 2010 to 2014. he's currently on the boards of both Darden and Haynes Brands and he is president of WSS, Venture, Holdings and Bill.

Good to see you today! Hey Becky Good morning, How are you good? Are you surprised to see lower than expected consumer spending from retail sales? Yeah, a little bit. Uh I Really was expecting them to uh to meet or beat uh, but it's a little a little bit of a head scratcher. Um, and and I think maybe what we're missing is is the housing numbers. The rent numbers not obviously not in retail sales that still haven't Uh, haven't come down to the level that that make things more affordable.

That might be the thing that's offsetting. uh, the retail sales at this point I mean that would make sense. Bank of America Put out something yesterday saying that they're consumers, that they follow the Bank of America Institute and that's based on their own numbers from all the clients that they see across the country. That consumers who are renters are getting pinched a lot more because they have seen serious rent inflation and haven't been able to get out of that.

Homeowners who are locked into a lower mortgage rate have been the ones that still have some some money that they can do disposable income that they can play with a little bit more. Your bigger worry though, really, Bill is more about inflation than word about recession. Why is that Yeah exactly? You know, not till we see the labor market start to to loosen up a little bit. I think uh you know the risk of of a recession is still very, very low.

We're actually quite good at recovering from recessions. We sort of do it, you know, every few years and have done it quite a few times in the last 25 or 30 years. It's just this stubborn, difficult, deep inflation we haven't seen for a couple of decades. Stubborn difficulty.

We're not really that good at shaking it up. And so Matt have you met back under control? And then we can? If if we find ourselves in a in a mild recession I I have no doubt the economy will will grow its way out of that who think that inflation has come down pretty substantially. At least you've seen it tame to a certain extent. You don't think that Trend continues.

You don't think the FED has done enough at this point to break it. well. I Mean there's inflation and inflation is a rate. So if you look at the two-year stack now three years stacked at things like food you're in the mid-20s 20 increase over a couple of years in food.

Uh, food inflation? Um, things that consumers you know obviously need. Um, and then and then you sort of look at the countertop near Full Employment and and uh, you know, wage rates continue to rise to offset Bank of America to be up and down now. So we're in this sort of inflationary potential. inflationary that really needs to get under control.

And while the rate of inflation has eased, which is what the numbers showed, the absolute price increase over the last 24 months is still quite astounding. I Guess if you're sitting on the board like: Darden Restaurants where you're trying to find people to hire. Has it gotten harder? or is it still difficult to try and find people, Do you still have to pay more money for that? Well I think you have to make yourself page and then take care of your people. and I and I think companies that Apple down slightly have had less difficulty finding rivie and uh, people to work in.

Companies that are trying to, you know, still operate in the low cost area. uh, particularly in wages. Um, lose a better job and and better wages. And that's really kind of the the model.

I I Think it's tough out there in certain markets and you know to fill the roles and it's really sort of potentially limiting expansion. Roblox And so it's difficult to fill new jobs. Bill Thank you Thanks Ben Coming up I Want to watch ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street And more insight into this morning's Bank earnings and will BlackRock face Fallout From naming the Saudi Aramco seat Yodowitz board Yale Management goo. Just Sonnenfell will join us.

Stay tuned, you're watching Squawk Box on CNBC Stay tuned while you're watching Squawk Box on CNBC Squawkbox Get your Squawk on early. There's two types of people in this world. people who squawk into a box and people who squawk outside of the box. What kind of Trader are you I'm Joe and I like to squawk? Have your cup of joe with Joe and the squawk team I Don't know.

I'm just working on some new um potential sayings and catchphrases for him. Kapow, We're here to squawk. We're squawking live. If you can't squawk the walk.

Don't walk. the squawk. You just got squawked. Dude, that one could work like if they are talking to someone and they kind of trip them up because like once in a while they'll hit him with some good questions and then it's just like you just got squawked and then I'm almost picturing the Nickelodeon like all that gringu it just falls on them.

Should I just make that show I'm starting to think that that could be my shows like we're there. we're interviewing nice people and business suits and stuff and then if I ever prove them wrong I get up I just like scream at them I rip my shirt I'm like you just got squawked and then all that Nickelodeon glue like the that green goo comes down on them and then that's just like the normal show. um I think it's promising I'm not seeing chat I think I lost chat because for me saying something so absurd I know chat like I'm not seeing any new chat messages the last thing I see is have I met her. Um so I don't know if you're talking to me right now, if if you aren't talking to me, it's actually arguably like a little bit more awkward.

In all reality, it's actually probably like super super awkward. Uh, because I'm not seeing I'm not seeing any messages. it's just completely. um, just me now I don't know if I'm having Tech issues, but YouTube's if you're saying something to me.

uh, it is not coming through squat box where the whole show is people talking about stocks but also wall squatting like all we care about is just like huge legs just like massive quads, massive hamstrings, stride striated calves. and like then they just talk about stocks as well. he doesn't see us I See you guys on Rumble Rumble's working for me. Uh, but YouTube chat is definitely not working for me unless they're not saying anything like that's totally possible.

like it is theoretically possible that they're not coming up. BlackRock The world's largest money manager at the Forefront of the years situations largest oil company to its board Jeff Seinfeld of Yales. So Blackrock's all been about ESG Environmental, social governance, blah blah blah and they literally just highlight like on the board. Now it's like a lead oil dude.

like just to go from like one position of like we're ESG We're doing what's right for the planet. Everyone needs to follow us. We're virtue signaling from our high horse. and then they just hire an actual oil dude.

Oh man, this world's too funny. It's too funny. So we either need to create my own show squat box or Squawk Box but we make it a lot more aggressive. A lot more aggressive.

So that's what I'm going for. All right. Well, that's going to be happening. I Kind of want to listen to that because I think it could be interesting to know his reasoning I Just want to know how like a billionaire fancy suit and tie dude like awkwardly handles this whole situation because it has to be super super awkward.

super awkward. Uh so I'm ready for that. Uh, the Spy coming down like 20 cents and the dollar just showing serious strength. Here's the breakout line I have on the dollar.

It broke below it in the middle of the night. vomited saved itself, retested that trend line vomited again early this morning, and then off of those retail sale numbers popped again. If you're just joining now, retail sales headline expected was 0.5 five percent coming in at point two and then if you take out, what was it? If you take out the Doom minus Autos uh, the expected was 0.3 Came in at point two so both the headlines and uh minus Autos came in lower than expected. The fact that we see.

So this is interesting to me because I think there's two ways to interpret it and I think that's why the market got a little confused at first. So on one hand, we are looking at a situation where if the consumer is getting a bit weaker, that is what the FED wants to happen with their monetary policy. So maybe that's indicative of them being closer to the end of the rate height cycle. So that's arguably bullish.

But on the other side of what I just said was the fact that consumers are weakening. If consumers are weakening, there's less money going into the economy, meaning that earnings comes down for a lot of these companies because less people have less like they have less disposable income. So it's kind of a catch 22 right now. and I think that's why.

First, the market went up and the dollar went down and then it quickly reverted. Obviously there's other things to pay attention to. we know Bank of America just reported. We know Morgan Stanley just reported.

So we're going to look at a little bit of what's going on in the financial sector. but the dollar continuing. Remember inverse relationship. The CEO of Aramco I mean Nasser to its board the world's largest.

This is so funny. has been a proponent of the financial industry's adoption of ESG strategies. BlackRock says the move. We'll give it a unique perspective on key issues.

Uh, joining us now to talk about the decisions. That's why they did it. Uh, studies University School of Management as well as a CNBC contributor on face value. Uh Jeff It's good to see you, but on face value.

Blackrock's Global they do have a presence in the Middle East I could almost accept that. Uh, you know you can't change the world because you can't change the world and one Fell Swoop being part of it being part of the process. Maybe you work from from within and and maybe affect an improvement in things that you see in the world. Are you? Do you dismiss this out of hand as a um, a smart move for Larry Fink and BlackRock Uh, I Dismissed this out of hand, but not for the reasoning you said.

I Share your perspective as a globalist I Don't share your perspective on appeasement always being the right way to go or the current terms of Engagement that often doesn't work I Don't know what it means, but I Like the sound of it, the Saudis are entitled to a voice on this board. They've got a trillion dollars invested in there I Think they've entitled The Voice but not this guy. Uh, I mean Nasser might be a delightful person, but it's symbolically and substantively representing a ramco that is the wrong player here. unless uh, Larry Fink really wants to blur their image on the ESG front and that's pretty good.

Uh, but the Aramco has not been in support of U.S policies. They have been undermining the Allies whether or not it's to help Putin with these uh, completely unjustified production Cuts I mean cutting their nose despite their face. They've cut about the the four billion barrels a day of production in the last 10 months completely unjustified unless they either want to help Putin or try to hurt the bidened economy or Lord knows what they want to do. Uh, make up for their their failed Investments elsewhere as they've tried to diversify and it's been a fiasco for them in the from the division fund to Neo has been disastrous.

So whatever their motives are, it's not in our interests. and it's because of these misguided motives that we've actually cut the 100 billion dollar Actually put a pause on a an unparalleled 100 billion dollar weapons transfer of highly sensitive systems to the Saudis for full control I mean Jeff they uh so if if they awkward right if it was just a hydrocarbon producer the biggest in the world but didn't have all of these the this history of being anti uh, against our interests, the United States what would then would it be okay or is it because then I think we get into the whole issue of of China and and what uh how companies should be um, negotiating that are walking that fine line. uh because there's a lot of things that chant and it's weird for for me watching you over over the months. Jeff In terms of Russia how strident you've been, you don't speak out against China uh the same way.

I don't really understand that. Uh, well the topic today is I Love China Saudi I'm not opposed to Saudi uh I'm opposed to Aramco being represented given the misconduct of Aramco. and I've shared this with a couple of board members on the Aramco board. Uh, that that's a problem if uh uh China by the way has been uh, surprising dollars starting to come down, markets starting to pop Again, what we're doing in in Russia in fact Tesla just below 290.

uh uh, some of the largest veterans community about dollars of last year. all of them uh from Bank of China to Icbs, we don't need to listen to him. instead you need to listen to me. So mark it at first one up, then came down, then popped a little, then vomited.

then now coming back up and that's perfectly correlated with the dollar popping. Remember in first relationship. Now the dollar is getting smacked at this trend line trying to decide if it keeps one of representing strength or come down and just completely crater through 99.60 if the dollar Index tracked by Old Dixie here dxy goes below 99.60 I think the market I think we're talking 452, then 454 5-ish I have a couple levels I'll go over but I'm also particularly interested now in the strength of Nvidia and Tesla Nvidia I Believe reports next week Tesla reports this week Wednesday and I'm going to be asking you this in a second. But for the people who are early to class I Want to have a like a core team meeting with you guys right now Tesla Reporting earnings on Wednesday Are you bullish or are you bearish? And hypothetically, let's say my Financial Health was on the line.

Hypothetically, if my Financial Health were on the line or if your Financial Health were on the line, would you be bullish or bearish on Tesla's earnings? Where where are we all that like and this is this is. This is for the core group. We have about a thousand people in here right now. Core Group People You're the opinions I Really want before all those late bed heads get in here.

you know. Bullish on Tesla Bearish Bullish. So two to one bullish. Three to one.

Right now the vote is three to one. Super bullish. Four to one, Five to one, two, Three bearish. Uh oh, it's getting closer to 50 50.

buy the rumor, sell the news. I've been cheated Bullish? Uh. Bullish Bearish. Okay, it seems like the edge is going to the Bulls, but there are definitely some bears in here.

Definitely some bears that need to be respected. but more Bulls coming in on Tesla Tesla to 320 on Thursday Poll Bullish bearish Parish I Honestly don't know, but I have a feeling they'll Miss They sold more vehicles but at a cheaper price. Geez, impossible to tell. Big sales but cut margins.

That's what. I'm that's why I'm asking you because it's a little bit of a tough one. A little bit of a toughy but also another thing I Want to throw out there. Don't forget all the recent Partnerships for their EV station.

So I don't think that's necessarily going to have an impact on the bottom of the Top Line this time around, but it could theoretically have an impact on their guidance, so something to consider there. Yahoo Plus sub here. Bear sideway squawkish cyber truck. Why are we so early? Uh.

because retail sales came out came out lower than expected. Point five percent was expected and it came in at point two. Uh, and because of that, we saw the market pop, then come down. We saw the dollar pop coming down.

Now feels like the move is just kind of getting almost reverted back to where we were right before. So it sounds like today, not really much of a gap up gap down. it feels like it's more going to be the normal trading action. which hey, I'm fine with that because I know yesterday we did essentially grind up all day, but it was just so boring.

It was such a low volume, low volatility, non-exciting push. So I'm hoping for some nice nice moves. Nice nice moves. But anyway, that's why we're early.

What is it? Mexican Beer Modelo was the top selling beer in the US for the second month in a row passing. Bud Light Once more. Oh yeah, Bud Light The decision that they wish they could take back I mean that whole thing. What a fiasco.

they're honestly I don't think Bud Light Well, the Bud Light brand Under Anheuser-Busch ever escapes what went down like I Don't think it's gonna be a thing that's ever forgotten. Uh, the dollar getting rocked right at that trend line. coming back down once again. I'm waiting for the test of 99 578.

In fact, let's just set up an alert because if that's breaking down, that would even in the short term, make me still bullish on the overall. Market which I know is crazy to say because the Market's been nothing to him, nothing but ripping and you're seeing live examples of it. Me: when I'm like, okay, this might be the top time to go bearish trying to pick the top. It's a Fool's errand and if you do it, congrats to you.

but just know you're absurdly lucky right now. There's no legitimate signs of this thing slowing down. We have not really had a close below the previous day's low. In some serious time, we're just getting higher highs.

We're getting higher lows. The trend is clearly to the upside and in terms of accuracy and just giving yourself more comfortable trades if you're trading with whatever the overall larger trend is and that's going to be relative to your timeline. So if you're a day trader and you're looking at the one minute, well, you want to make sure you're in in Trend with like the 10 and the 15. if you're a day trader, more of a swing Trader You want to see what's going on with the daily and then you're trading on the 15..

So basically in the shorter time frame, you're going to want to look for pullbacks of the overall major Trend whether bullish or bearish and then you take a trade in trim. Now obviously this is one methodology. There's many, many ways to trade. but I think that concept is something that's in important for a lot of people, especially if you're newer to the markets thinking okay, like what's a type of strategy or methodology I could like be working on I Think that's a really good place to start, identify trends on a larger time frame and then try to trade with that Trend and then in a smaller time frame, look for the opposite movement for you to get your entry.

So right now, a real life example of that. let's just here. I'll pull up an example. Let's look at the 15 minute on the spy.

Let's look at the five minute on the Spy So we know the daily. this is the daily on the Spy You Could argue that the trend is clearly to the upside. It's been to the upside actually since October higher highs, higher lows, we are trending up, we are trending up. We are trending up.

So if you know your Trends up well, then you could just look for some weakness. So for example, you could have bought on Friday on this first pullback. Now obviously it wouldn't have been the best day. but by the time you got to today, you were fine.

And then if you're looking at yesterday, all right, We popped. We came down, we made some support. We popped off of that, Then we came down again, made some support, popped off of that. Um, so this is what I'm talking about of.

identify the larger Trend I TR ATT attempt to trade with the overall trend and look for a Distortion to the opposite way in a smaller time frame just to get a better entry. Now Is this going to work 100 of the time? Absolutely not. I'm telling you right here. If you think you're coming up with a strategy that's going to be making a hundred percent of money, a hundred percent of the time, that's not gonna happen.

But when you do it with that methodology, you're increasing your chances because you're trading with the overall trend. So you're just hoping that you're not like top ticking it or bottom taking it in the negative. Direction And then if you're wrong, then, well, the fact that you waited for an opposite way movement. that inherently means you're taking on less risk because you were closer to whatever support you are looking at.

uh, in either direction and then you could cut it if appropriate. So I think that's one thing that can be discussed. Matt Do you have any positions? Yes I have calls for Friday for Friday So I don't have any like zero DTS no 1dt Really what I'm looking at is how the Spy reacts to 452 I Want to see a test I Want to see a Breakout I'd like to see some consolidation and if that happens I think it could set up a next leg higher. My reasoning for that is a little multi-faceted Firstly, the banking industry I Think all of them have beaten except for PNC So if you look at all the major Banks they've all be in.

We're going to be going over Bank of America they reported this morning, but last week Wells Fargo City and JPMorgan all beat BlackRock beat uh Bank of America B Bny Melon B PNC mist and we have Goldman Sachs tomorrow. So across the board, financials are looking pretty freaking good. I'm also feeling optimistic about the tech sector right now and I'm mainly watching what's on the screen Nvidia and Tesla Obviously I'm always checking in on Apple but Apple is honestly within spitting distance of another new all-time high. So like I like to check in on Apple and Microsoft just because they're so dominant.

They're so influential. But right now, the Absurd strength that we're seeing in Nvidia what we're seeing in Tesla Even a little bit of what we're seeing in Netflix the Bulls seem to be in control. Now Are they going to remain in control indefinitely? Absolutely not. But once again, I don't have a magic crystal ball.

that's my astronaut guys. that's not mine. so I'm not allowed to use it for it to tell me what's about to happen in the future. So once again, trying to trade with the trend and in all reality, my bad trades from yesterday and my bad trades from Friday won't My bad trades from yesterday were because of the dumb decisions I made on Friday The the root of the cause for that is because I was attempting to pick the change of an overall trend which is very, very, very silly to do.

Lit the trend tell you when it's over, you shouldn't be the person who's like I think it's done now just like arbitrarily wait. Like if we're ripping to the upside. Wait for some sort of price breakdown? Wait for a slew of bad economic reports, Wait for a slew of bad earnings reports. But right now, price action is only to the upside.

The dollar is very weak, the financial sector is absolutely crushing it, and now this is setting up to find out what's going to be happening in the tech sector. Obviously, we're going to be hearing from Tesla and Netflix this week and then next week this week and then next week we're going to be getting even more big Tech names. So if they all end up beating two, yeah, I think this could keep going Now there's two interesting things I want to say here from like a little bit of a higher level view. A fair question is like well why is everything still going and I don't really have the evidence on this I don't really I'm not some sort of crowd psychologist I'm not some sort of Market master.

All I know about is Texas Roadhouse Texas Roadhouse and relationship advice. That's really my forte, that's my expertise but with that being said, I'm of the opinion that the market punishes the most people possible once again. I am supportive of this idea that the market causes the most people to lose the most amount of money and right now it's not hard to go on to mainstream Financial media to go onto Twitter to go on to Reddit to go on to whatever and realize that everyone and their mother is calling out how everything's overbought. I mean if you go, scroll on.

Twitter Right now you're gonna see everyone talking about oh my God there's Divergent RSI The price is too high. we're at this ATR movement every like. there's no way we can keep going and guess what happens because of that and I'll trust me. I'm one of these victims that just happened to me on Friday I was like oh, that's a good point.

We are really, really overextended so I took a bearish position and then La Dee Da the next day on Monday I got my face ripped off by the Bulls Eventually this turns over I'm not saying that we're just gonna forever keep ripping and ripping and ripping, but I do believe we fall over when less people are positioned to take advantage of it. I very very much believe that the market punishes the most people at any given amount of time. and right now I'm seeing a lot of people overly confident that we have to fall down. Let me tell you one thing about the market, it doesn't have to do so I just want to throw that out there and as and this is almost I guess.

Like me doing a live stream journal for myself and trying to understand my own psychology of what's it like when I have winning trades? What's it like when I have losing trades? Where did things go wrong in the losing trades? Where did things go right in the winning trades and a review of the latter half of last week and what went on yesterday my review of that is I need to be more definitive of trading with that overall trend rather than my buy is coming in thinking that I know when things are going to change. No one knows when things are going to change and we know you make the most money by following an overall trend. So for example, even though I think Nvidia is clearly overvalued, clearly overvalued, it's kind of silly to take puts on Nvidia when it's showing absolutely no weakness, the only chance that works out for you is if magically when you think it's going to turn if that happens. and obviously there is some sort of statistical chance of it.

but there's also a statistical chance of like that stripper at your local bar actually loving you. So like, there's certain things that we have to appreciate. Yes, they are theoretically possible, but maybe just not statistically accurate so just want to throw that out there. and I think you guys are really going to like that analogy and metaphor I Think it'll probably hit home for quite a few of the people in here, and maybe maybe we'll get some things to click in your mind on that particular analogy.

OMG I Told you that three months ago. the whole bar thing is that what you told me when duck suspenders I actually still have those? They're right over there. I Love my ducks suspenders. So anyway, we do have some things to go over.

Welcome, welcome welcome. if you're just joining now I Want you to know that you are in fact late to class demerit. This is why we can't have nice things is because too many people are getting too many. Demers In fact, it's gotten so bad we had to take away the Golden Star system which once again, you can get it back as soon as the other channel the Evergreen Channel hits a thousand subscribers over there on YouTube But until then, all we're giving out is Demerits and no gold stars to undo all that negative negative.

Karma So just want to throw that out there. But before we get into everything for today. I Need you to know that yesterday? Dao Rises For sixth straight day, closes at highest level of 2023. So that's kind of the vibe that even though everything's overvalued, it's it's not slowing down.

Stock futures are little change ahead of busy earnings today. Well, let's actually see what they say. Let me reload it once again. stock futures are little change following weak retail sales.

So so earnings. So so earnings. Well, let's dive into that. Uh I Want to come back to this.

This has nothing to do with the market I Just thought it was a crazy story. the US national being held in North Korea after Crossing border. according to the um, a U.S national may be a North Korean Custody After crossing the inter-korean border without authorization, the person was touring the joint security area. Yeah, Maybe I'm my mind on this is torn.

like obviously there's massive horrific negatives of this dictate the dictatorship, the authoritarian world of North Korea but also like when you know it's bad, when you know it's bad. should you even be close? like what? like you're taking undue risk I guess I Think about it in terms of risk reward. So even if I'm touring the what Is it the Joint Security area if I'm Touring that what's the actual reward You know what? What's the reward Just to say you did it when the risk is is if you step on the wrong side of the path, you're now in a dictator's prison. I Just I I Guess that's what I don't get of it like I'm upset that there's any risk at all because that the fact that there is risk means that something's going wrong and these are inherently humans and it's a whole history and it's obviously bad.

but that doesn't take away from the fact that the risk does exist. Okay, and if there's large risk now, there has to be even more reward. and then you look at it and you're like, well, what's the reward And there isn't much So like I just I I Just don't really get it. U.S National on a JSA orientation tour cross without authorization the Military Democration Demarcation demarcation line into the Democratic People's Republic of Korea we believe he is currently in DP arcade custody and are working with our kPa counterparts to resolve this incident.

You could just accidentally stumble onto the wrong side of the path and you end up getting thrown in prison. Just tells me I don't want to be anywhere near that path because I'm not the most observant fella and sometimes I like to wander about I don't understand but hey I guess that's some breaking news. Once again, not related to the market but I didn't want to share it with you. Okay, before we get into earnings: I This is what CNBC was talking about BlackRock appoint CEO of Oil Giant a Ramco to its board thinks his BlackRock to get unique perspective on key issues.

Uh, Butter Al-sad won't stand for re-election to board next year. It's kind of funny. it's kind of awkward. So obviously as they said in the CNBC interview, they kind of have a right because they have a trillion dollars invested with BlackRock and with that kind of money, you're going to get a seat at the table.

But also it's a little bit awkward because Blackrock's all about this ESG thing and now you're putting like oil right on your Void like oil representation. So BlackRock under a little bit of heat, people on both sides of the argument are not happy. Now to earnings coming out this morning was Bank of America BAC the final of the four major ones. So last week we got JPMorgan City and Wells Fargo all three beat.

This morning we got Bank of America It also be even though in pre-market it's down a little bit now. Ever since the retail sales report Bank of America's top analyst expectations amid higher interest rates. so coming in at 88 cents when the expectation was 84 and the revenue was 25.33 billion when the expectation was 25.05 So beating on top and bottom lines, while analysts expected Bank of America to be one of the top beneficiaries of rising interest rates, it hasn't played out that way. The company's net interest income one of the main drivers of A Bank's Revenue has been under pressure lately as loan and deposit growth has slowed.

So even though it beat where we at right now, let me go to Bank of America Pac bouncing back actually Bank of America now in the green. so it went green. and then on that 8 30 report, we came down and now bouncing again. So in the green and that kind of makes sense because it beat on earnings.

Morgan Stanley beats estimates on record wealth management Revenue in terms of earnings, it came in at a dollar 24. The expectation was a dollar fifteen Revenue was 13.46 billion when the expectation was 13.08 So going the way of all these other ones, the only bank I know of that has missed thus far is PNC JPMorgan City Wells Bank of America BlackRock Bny Mellon Morgan Stanley Aldi PNC missed the other one were a lot of Wall Streets paying attention to comes out tomorrow and that's Goldman Sachs ticker symbol GS Actually how is Goldman Sachs Reacting to this dude, The dollar pop came down, reverting looking for another test of this trend line. Let's see who ends up winning that fight I Just want to see Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs is up slightly right now actually XLF In general, we've been just tracking the financial sector green. It pushed a lot yesterday, went sideways, took a bit of a hit this morning, but already bouncing back to these pretty elevated levels.

Let's check out the energy sector not really moving much. Let's check out utilities not moving much. Let's check out Healthcare Also, not moving much. So the big movers of the day are the financial sector a little bit of volatility there, and then also the tech sector, which it's just been as volatile as could be lately, but volatility at least to the upside.

So if you're bullish, if you have been making some money. speaking of retail sales, speaking of banks, this is important to know more. Americans are getting turned down for loans according to Fed data Americans are increasingly likely to get turned down when they apply for credit according to a new Federal Reserve survey that shows the combined impact of high interest rates and a cautious turn among the country's lenders folks. I Hope I'm wrong on this, but my prediction for the second half of this year the half we're in right now is that this is actually going to end up getting worse.

The rejection rate for loan applicants jumped to 21.8 percent in the 12 months through June the highest level in five years according to the latest edition of the FED survey. Overall, credit applications declined to the lowest level since October of 2020. So obviously this is going to be very intertwined with the real estate market. It's going to be really intertwined with the hike in Fed rate less people are going to apply if they have to pay for a higher percentage.

But on top of that, the fact that lenders are willing to take less risks kind of showcases the fact that they know something's going on. They know some. There's some Rumblings in the underbelly of the economy. I Don't think that's a surprise to most people listening to me right now now.

Does that mean it's going to play out this day? No, the market could keep going. Remember, the economy and the stock market are very interrelated, but they're not the exact same thing it was. John Keynes Who said the market can remain illiquid or illogical longer than you can remain liquid. So we could all sit here.

We could put out point out the negative information of what's going on in China We could point out the negative information of inflation. We could point out the negative information of the weakening consumer. That's an accurate economic take that is fine, but that does not necessarily translate to what you should be actively trading right now. If anything, that's more of like an investing positioning type of an argument.

Rather than what are you day trading, what Are you swing trading? It's good to know what's going on in the rest of the world, but if you're a day trader or a swing Trader If your trading time is anytime below like a couple weeks you making some sort of big call out of where we're going in the next couple quarters, it might be right and that might help you with your long-term account, but in terms of your active trading account, it it just doesn't matter that much. Um, obviously. I Think many of us can agree that the market is going to eventually end up coming down. It doesn't just keep going up, but you're not the person who needs to be like Oh I'm attempting to top ticket wait for actual weakness to come about.

Before you do anything, try to trade with the overall trend. Chipotle Signs first ever franchise partner to open locations in the Middle East One of these days my dream is Texas Roadhouse Signs first ever franchise partner to a guy named Matt Course that's my dream Headline: Texas Roadhouse Signs first ever franchise partner to a guy named Matt Course I Want to be the first Mac cores on this planet to be a Texas Roadhouse franchise owner and every single day I will crush those cinnamon butter bugs. That will be my dedication to not only myself, but to the company and really the universe as a whole. That is something I would be willing to do if I'm just granted the absolute amazing honor The Prestige of being the first Mac Coors Franchise owner of a Texas Roadhouse One of these days, Something to look forward to.

It's definitely a life goal of mine. but in the meantime Chipotle is making moves. Chipotle Announced today Tuesday is signed an agreement with Kuwait based. Uh, a ill Alicia I'm gonna butcher that.

My apologies, it's first ever franchise partner opened locations in the Middle East next year. Chipotle Currently has just over 50 locations in Canada and Europe. All are company owned and operated as are. It's roughly 3.2 000 U.S locations I Just want to point out how big of a deal that is like.

Same thing with Starbucks No one actually owns a Starbucks franchise Starbucks owns all of Starbucks Chipotle owns all of Chipotle Uh, kind of interesting that they were able to scale up and this. that's why it's such a big deal. CEO Brian Said The initial plan calls for two locations each in Dubai and Kuwait. so for any of you trading CMG out there, that's a ticker symbol for Chipotle Just wanted you to know in terms of macroeconomic events.

Well, we are about to get two more I Just want to check the time, but at 9 15 in about 90 seconds, we are going to get the capacity utilization number and the industrial production number. and at 8 30 this morning an hour before the market set to open U.S Retail sales coming in lower than expected. Tomorrow we get some stuff related to the real estate World Thursday normal Thursday and then on Friday Nothing scheduled. but please do not forget that we are in the middle of earnings season and from here on out for the next couple weeks it's just going to get more and more and more exciting.

Let me show you what's going down. So Bank of America this morning Morgan Stanley this morning Lockheed Martin was this morning too. they beat I did not see the numbers from Charles Schwab so if anyone has those, if you could, please share them in chat. After the market closes today, we hear from interactive brokers on Wednesday Goldman Sachs I misspoke earlier I thought Goldman Sachs Oh no, yeah yeah okay I forgot today's Tuesday that's crazy.

It's weird how the linear nature of time works. Anyway, after the market closes on Wednesday we get Tesla Netflix United IBM Big names also discover and then on Thursday American and Johnson and Johnson and on Friday we get American Express after the market closes on Thursday Capital One Feel free to screenshot this feel free to go to at E-whispers but I think a lot of people are paying attention to Tesla and Netflix Specifically, the fact that all other banks have pretty much been except for PNC tells me that Goldman Sachs is probably going to beat, especially because they're pretty related to Morgan Stanley in terms of the type of their business. So I don't see Morgan Stanley beating and Goldman not beating. Of course it could happen.

but I think I think they're pretty related in terms of their business model. so I'm looking for Goldman to be. but in terms of major Tech plays, we've had no reports yet so it's very tough to make a call on Tesla and Netflix based on what's happened in the past quarter for both of them. I Want to say I'm actually lean and bullish and I know that's crazy I know it's insane I know both of them are up a lot but Tesla the numbers I know their margins are less, but they sold a lot.

they have all those Partnerships Netflix cracking down on the password sharing. So if anything I think their subscriptions are going to go up, especially as Disney streaming is taking a little bit of a hit. so I think they could be eating up more market share and they're also getting kind of more Global exposure especially make Asian based content shows movies. So based on what played out over the last quarter, I actually am bullish on Tesla and Netflix Now the degree to which I'm bullish, it's a tough call.

It's a tough call and that's why I Wanted to ask all of you. Um, let's let's start with Tesla Then we'll go to Netflix right now. If you guys had to pick, would you be bullish or bearish on Tesla Now that we have more people in here, if you have to pick Tesla from Wednesday's close to Thursday's opening, the market closes on Wednesday 4 P.M Dingity ding ding ding. We're all tired.

We bring ourselves to the gym. and then Thursday morning we all wake up bright-eyed and bushy-tailed What do you think is going to happen to Tesla's price? In between there, you think we're going to go uppity uppity, up where you think we're going to go down any down any down? Jeremy's calling out for 350 this week I mean totally possible. but bullish Bullish bullish. I have Tesla calls bullish don't answer bullish.

Bully bullish bullish. Big bull bear with bullhorns bearish. Barrel barrel-ish So now I think there's more Bulls in here. It's easy to beat the partier all right now.

let's switch it up now. let's switch it up. My question to you is Netflix Netflix Netflix Nflx. Both of these ticker symbols have rip it, rip it skippity Doo Dot Where you guys feeling Netflix Historically massive follow-ups but now we've been on a nice Ripper is is this on? its is Netflix on its revenge Arc Has Netflix been hit in the gym, putting on some pounds, dieting appropriately getting its mental health right? Is it on the Revenge Arc after everyone already broke up with it publicly is Netflix putting on its revenge Broad Netflix That show, what shows does it actually have? um I don't know I Really like all the ones that have been following around Sports Full swing Um, try to survive Point Break they had Wednesday Wednesday it's most watched show ever.

Stranger things I mean it definitely has some like very impressive like um I understand some of its content isn't I'm not saying all of its content is amazing, but there's a small subsection of its content that I always enjoy watching since the market run started well before the earnings season. I think Netflix Apple will continue to run for some time. Um, fair, fair fair. You guys are all bringing up some good points Anyway, those are earnings now for today specifically.

I Want you to know that the seasonality of today does favor the Bears The Bulls have only won this day 40 of the time over the last two and a half decades with the profit Factor coming in at 0.43 And this is the equity curve of buying it open, selling it closed on the S P 500 futures Market Buying it open, selling it close over the past 25 years. Obviously, the Bears do typically win this day, but not always. they've won it 40 of the time. So basically four out of ten times, two out of five.

whatever. However, you want to call it the Bears have the edge. but the it's not like they always win so just want to throw that out there. And also we should go over the five things to know before that stock market bill goes.

Diggity Ding ding ding today Tuesday July 18th Dao on a tear yes it is. Bank earnings Drive the day they crushed it look at XLF track XLF going higher and higher and higher Goldman drops recession odds hey, that's good. that's positive musk and Zuck will spar with Congress So two separate things. uh, musk that's going on of just like the data being given to the administration and Zuck it's that's more of the Karen Elizabeth Warren and talking about how Gary Genser and the SEC should be looking into like did they violate Securities Law with him getting Twitter like And basically she's talking to the Tesla shareholders, Alzheimer's and RSV breakthrough.

What's that? Millions of Alzheimer's patients could soon have more treatment options than seen Possible Only a few months ago Eli Lilly said it applied for FDA approval of its promising Alzheimer's uh treatment Don What is this? Don and Ab is that the name of the drug which slowed the disease in patients traded in the early stages of its progression. as part of its phase three trial, the company expects a decision from the agency by the end of the year. It follows the approval of that drug and that drug treatment whatever that word is which opened the door for broader Medicare coverage of the similarly promising treatment. Well, that's a big win for Humanity Massive Win For Humanity Hey, I'm stoked about that I'll take that all right.

Here's a little look you see at the market: Uh Bank of America making a strong recovery. Remember they did beat on earnings PNC did Miss on earnings. That's why it's down. Uh LMT Lockheed Martin B on theirs Uh, Bny Bny? Mellon Nope.

What is V and Y B N Y? I Want Bny Melon PNY Melon Investors ETF Does anyone know the ticker symbol for Bny Melon off the top of their head? By chance? these are all this. BK BK Something BK The Bank of Right here I Guess it's just BK Uh, slightly up up 0.14 but I know a lot more of you are interested in these big swinging Tech names and I noticed something interesting. You guys notice where we're at. You notice this perfect tap off of 292.

That ain't no normal run-of-the-mill tap off of 292.. that is saying we are knocking on the door of potentially a massive massive breakout. So this, uh, we kind of don't need this for this argument. I Just want to look at these two lines for now.

So if you look at the high from Wednesday June 21st and connect at the high from Monday July 3rd. Okay, that's where we got tapped off of. All right. Interesting.

Higher highs, higher lows Interesting. Interesting. but let me show you the weekly. it becomes a little bit more evident.

This is the all-time trend line. This is the all-time trend line. You see how close we're getting to it right here. Now granted, this is a massive push.

It's an absolutely massive push. But if it can break and hold above this and it's at a key technical level, key reasons like there could be some action now obviously. Breakout breakdown: I Give the odds roughly a 50 50 plus or minus like 10, but that's going to be close enough to the odds. But my point is, if this is a nice breakout, We've seen this before.

look at what happened on Netflix Got their breakout at 373 already trading at 450.. look at what happened with Apple, which is actually scary similar. It's scary similar, so obviously it's played out. It looks like it got its action a bit earlier.

but look at this one. look at that. So this broke out at 164 after a big rip and then is now up an additional 17.5 from there. Actually, in terms of chart similarities, Apple and how it was looking back here in April reminds me a lot of what Tesla is looking like right now.

So I'm looking for the break and the hold of this region, which could totally be prompted by earnings. It could also get rejected because of earnings. But this is the trend line. I'm watching on Tesla I think it's very, very important to have this on your watch list right now, because whatever it is I think there's going to be a nice trade here.

a nice rip to the upside or a smack at the trend line and it dips and maybe get some Gap fills. To the downside, whatever it is. I have no position on Tesla right now, but I do believe even larger moves are brewing in the background. So watching that coin nice recovery there obviously on coin I was just curious if it ever got Above This value I'm looking at 116 actually still holding pretty strong.

definitely holding pretty strong I know a lot of people still watching Carvana Chop Chop chop. you have to either wait for breakouts or breakdowns above 39 above 40 gets interesting to be a bull and about below 35. It gets interesting to be a bear Rivian recently taking a hit, but after a huge huge Ripper if I was a Rivian bowl and I wrote this all the way up, if we end up going below 23.60 if we end up going below 22, if we just somewhere, it's starting to look weak like you could. Actually, it literally looks like when you throw a ball into the air and it's arcing back down.

Now obviously it could just be a higher low and then I'd feel a little bit more confident. If we get above 24 25 great then I'll like move my stop loss to the recent low, but if it keeps showing weakness, well, obviously I don't want to give back that much of my gains. and even if I get out a little early and then it dips and turns back around, you could always re-enter but Rivien showing a little bit of weakness Microsoft actually showing some strength I'm looking for the I mean if this can get going to 351 I mean Microsoft's crazy strong, went up, came down sideways Consolidation fake out Breakdown: Trendline touch that that's a nice trade Microsoft looks bullish to me. Meta just non-stop Meta It gapped up after earnings came down light retest and then has been perfectly been following this trend line: I don't see really an entry in or exit right now, but if it comes down to the trend, lines show some strength off of that I'd give it a I'd give it a shot, why not? I'd give it a shot uh Nflx I know we looked at this but let's look at the daily.

Here was my target from when we got or when I got in around those 370s 380s. I was looking at the high 450s and we are getting very very close to that I wish I was holding my calls. This sell-off kind of concerned me because I was like uh oh we're going for this downside Gap though but it actually reverse courses early and now we're getting really, really close to it. so Netflix Awesome trade.

Honestly. Uh, Apple almost had an all-time high. The actual all-time high is 19448. This is a lot of confusing stuff going on, so let me clean this chart up a little bit.

Let me clean this up. clean this up great! Um Apple All-time High: 19448 I'm gonna set an alert there because if that goes, we know being the biggest company in the U.S Stock market. If that one's ripping, there's a good chance both to spy and the queues are also ripping. So definitely watching that.

And then there's a little bit of a downside Gap Phil and we might as well Mark out this bottom as well. So just some key levels I'm watching on Apple but once again I currently have no active position on Apple How's Amazon doing Amazon showing strength Overall, maybe a little weakness with this setup. a little bit of an island top I'd just be looking for this downside: Gap Filter 130 126 and then seeing if it reverts off of that and starts to go again, but it looks like maybe it's going the way of trying to clean up its chart a little bit. Uh, what else do we have? What else do we have? coin? I think those are all the major ones I have about two minutes left, two minutes and some change.

Are there other charts you guys want me to do? Just like a quick check of a quick uh, some called out Airbnb Airbnb Somehow ripping makes no sense to me because everything I'm reading about the company is how Airbnb listings are taking a huge hit. Um, if I were in it, if you were bullish on it and bought it somewhere in this rip up I would I would have scaled out some here at 144.63 because it was previous resistance and then if it keeps going, my next Target 152 to 157 I might cut those in half. Maybe I would Target that seems a little high. Honestly, my next Target probably 152 is where I choose to scale out a bit more I wouldn't be chasing this.

This is only if I was already writing it up because to chase it now like what's your risk level? Are you gonna risk 125? Are you going to risk 123. the risk reward isn't there in my opinion to be entering now. but if you've been swinging it this whole time, yeah, I mean I I'm now in the mindset of like okay I'd be scaling out a bit on that one. um Google Google Google Google Google Running into resistance well, shoulder, head, shoulder broke, the neckline, sold off, caught itself pushing back up.

If it can get above and hold above 126, that's pretty bullish and then like the real breakout I guess technically would be coming at 129. that's actually a key. Look at the support support all turning into resistance if it can get onto the top side of 129 130 I guess you could be watching some of these levels 131 I mean there there is an upside gaffle on Google all the way up to 140. Uh but to be fair, there's also a downside Gap though on Google all the way down to 113 with some other like weird stuff in here.

but I would just be watching this. we see this shelf. it got rejected one two three, four times before on top of 126 and a hold of that that definitely in my book could be some strength. um at least the way I look at it.

so I'll probably be setting up some alerts on that one now for today. In terms of the overall: Market I think things get interesting above 451 and then I think they go with gang boxers above 452 for the Bulls I think things get interesting for the Bears below 449 and then it really turns on below 448 and with that being said, the casino is open. Best of luck to all. Play responsibly if not, have fun.

All right. Little bit of a week opening, but we'll watch Tesla Tesla's been very strong, very strong Nvidia getting smacked Uh, 467 Strong recovery from yesterday's low to today's open and that related to um, some processing chip organization trying to reach out to the government saying hey, all these rules are a little bit silly. Uh, so a lot of semiconductors popping off of that noise off of that news. excuse me All right, Some red openings across the board I Want to see what the dollar is doing? The dollar actually kind of holding that bounce.

the dollar holding its bounce. Interesting. How's the financial sector doing also taking a hit at Open? So the Opening: I Don't know if people are taking profits or if they're not in love with the financial reports, but once again, I Really try to do nothing for the first 10 20, 30 minutes of the day I Sometimes for whatever reason, whether right or wrong, I end up breaking that rule. but I Truly believe out of many, many trading days if you were to review it most of the time, most of the time it seems solid to just wait and chill and see how things really settle just because there's so much volatility.

Volatility Opening: Market Churn. It's just to me. Just wait. Just wait.

Calm, cool, collected, calm, cool, collected. That should be the name of the show. Amazon Men is actually green. Xrp is going up a little bit Bitcoin just below 30 000 29.8k Ethereum at 1891.

runs at 8 30. Tesla's at 288 and some change. The spy catching a bid someone just said hello on a rumble rant. Hello brother, what's up dude, what's up Dude? uh, puts on Carvana.

not quite yet Carvana I'm not really seeing a breakdown on it yet I mean eventually I Think there's going to be nice money to be made betting against Carvana, but you just have to wait for actual weakness to start to develop. Throw Tesla up there I Know a lot of people are watching Tesla right now, if there's a particular ticker or crypto or something like that that almost all of you are watching and I just don't have it up on the screen, please let me know. I'm more than happy to switch some of these out. You break the rule more than you follow it though.

uh, statistically that's not right most days. I mean I track it like I track when I trade I track the time and it. That's just not accurate actually. I do break it unfortunately and and once in a blue moon, it's the right move.

but most of the time it's not the right move. But to say that I break it more than I follow it. that is actually just not accurate Is the dollar ripping I've seen some so the dollar is ripping. the Dollar's been dirty, the Dollar's been Dirty Man But the question is will it be able to hold this? Will it be able to hold it cardano definitely not watching