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RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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The Matt Kohrs Show (Oct. 20th)
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#LiveTrading #Stocks #Options #StockMarket
Please be sure to LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and turn on them NOTIFICATIONS.
Let me know in the comments if there is anything I can improve on moving forward.
Thanks for Watching!
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
On its way up to the hotel room of my fian but I never made it there s I'm tearing through my life like a t coming on hotter than a big potato she spin me around and see later on a hat but another instead we the red I you she was blowing through my door like a going out star in general a sensible guy but that guy died when she I'm te through my life like a tornado coming on hotter than a big potato she spin me around and see later to ha her but I love her instead go well I lost my job and all of my money of my friends and half of my mind so messed up. It's a little funny and I thought for sure that she was mine now I'm alone trying to get right picking up the pieces of my busted life if she walked into this room tonight I'd say baby won't you come my like a tornado coming on hotter than a big potato she spin me around and she R A ha another instead want to ha another instead uh oh hey oh hey what's up duties oh oh hey um what's going on happy Sunday happy October 22nd happy Whatever particular thing that you are celebrating right now I myself not that any of you have asked Uh, crushed the gym yesterday. crushed the gym today. tried to actually work out so hard today that it wiped the memory of the Penn State Ohio State game yesterday.
I don't know how many of you guys watched it, but it was horrible. it was absolutely horrible. Penn State Lost so arguably the worst of the two teams. um, but both were sad.
Both were not in no way representative of being in the like top tier in the Big 10 top tier in all of college football. It was a horrible, horrible game um, and particular Lally worse for Penn State But it's all right because uh, the Eagles are going to win it back today. I Know there is a tough road ahead with the Miami Dolphins the Miami Dolphins uh are definitely a team to be reckoned with this particular season. but I think I think the Eagles could pull it off I Really really do so.
Um I don't know I I Try to do as much as I could at the gym this morning to just like, literally beat the PSU OSU game out of my memory. I I Don't need any proteins in my brain to instill that into my long-term memory. Um, it's already embedded deep into my subconscious. but dude, it was.
It was something. It was something. So hey, at least for your uh, college football I Hope you had a better weekend and for your Prof professional football I Hope whoever you're watching right now, um I Hope your team's about to win already, winning, Going to win whoever you're rooting for unless you're rooting against me. But besides that, I Hope whoever you're room for absolutely crushes it.
Um I Know there's a lot going on I know there's a ton going on. So uh, we're going to try to make this quick, painless, and kind of rip through some of the interesting things that we're seeing in the Old ston. Market If you, for some reason decided to not trade last week, in all reality, you missed quite a bit. The market absolutely vomited broke not one but two major support lines. So I want to talk about the technicals I Want to talk about the price action I want to get into some interesting things we're seeing in the options market and I know things look crazy negative right now. Uh, but the options Market is actually suggesting that there might be a little bit of of a bullish reversion. So I want to go over that and basically the massive negative gam exposure that we saw going into options expiration that is no longer there. So basically these options market makers are going to be able to un hedge and they sold so many puts that never ended up in the money.
so they can un un hedge that to hedge a put selling, they go net negative so they might be able to unwind that position, adding a little bit of upward momentum to the market. So I'll be explaining that we're in the middle of earning season. Last week we had Tesla and Netflix Netflix crushed it Tesla got crushed This upcoming week we have Microsoft we have Google we have Snapchat we have meta. we have Amazon So five big Tech names coming out this week, so we'll talk a little bit about that.
And then of course, on the political macroeconomic scale, there's a lot of tension not only in the Middle East of what's going on with Israel and Palestine, but obviously what's going on here in the US with the Speaker of the house and upcoming election. All that good stuff. So we have a lot to talk about, a lot to chitchat about, and if anything I think we should start this off with a bit of positive news. If you haven't already, sign up for the newsletter Ma.
Locals.com It is the first link in the description of the video. Whether you're watching on Rumble or if you're watching on Netflix But check this out. We last week was the worst week for the zero DTE strategy I think it went six out of 10 60% This past week it batted a th000 it went 10 out of 10. So uh, a little bit of Applause for everyone who's been helping with this strategy.
a little bit of Applause for everyone who's been offering constructive feedback, constructive criticism. Um, but we went two weeks ago we had the worst week performance. for this the worst accuracy then this past week Not only was it the best week, but it was also a perfect week. So betting a th000 just every single day a spy and Q so hit it, hit it, hit it, hit it, hit it.
Uh. two per day five days a week? Uh we B A th went 10 for 10. Uh so none of them were even really that sketchy. so some that was it was awesome.
Uh, it's interesting how it seems like in the market you can back to back have your worst performance and then your best performance or vice versa. your best performance very quickly. Follow Follow by your worst performance throughout my training career I Feel like I've noticed that phenomena. Like quite a bit of how like just the volatility goes from absurdly negative to positive or absurdly positive to negative. Um, it's funny how life does that type of thing. So anyway, check this out Mls.com First link in the description of the video Um, the second link which is also the link pinned to the chat on both Rumble in YouTube is an interview that I did with a mathematician from Tasty Trade Tasty Trade. It is not only a brokerage, but a prolific content creation for the world of not just the markets, but specifically options trading. They're actually the outfit that created Thinker Swim that sold it to TD Baron Trade.
Now they have their own brokerage and they've been doing this for over a decade and they make a lot of educational content. A lot of people, at least in my demographic or maybe a little bit older. When we first learned about options, it was from Tasty Trade so for me it was a little bit of a full circle moment. Uh, but anyway I Was able to do an interview with one of the researchers.
her name is Julia Spina She Wrote This Book Right here the Unlucky Investors Guide to options trading. Um, if you were like new to the world of options or maybe like kind of like learning and you know a little bit, this is a great book. Um, if you are already an expert level options Trader Maybe not exactly for you, but if you're new to the world of options trading or kind of like a mid-tier option Trader Like some winners, some losers, that type of thing. this is a phenomenal book.
She is the author of it and I had the opportunity to do an interview with her. Very very cool cuz I Feel like a lot of the times when it comes to the world of trading. it's a lot of wishy-washy stuff like gut feeling. um, but she actually does not approach trading that way at all.
Hers is purely mechanical, purely mathematical. In the interview, you're going to see that she has like more degrees than I could possibly count. She's a very, very smart cookie. Um, so just for a little bit of a different perspective on the world of training I Think you guys are are going to like be very interested in it.
Obviously it's free. it's pinned to the top of chat on both YouTube and Rumble so after this, feel free to watch it. I think it's about 25 minutes. watch it on double speed.
um. and I think you're going to get some interesting math statistic based insights into the proper way to trade options. So I'm really proud of that one. I Think you're going to uh, enjoy it Now with that out of the way that's pinned to the top of Chat obviously, sign up for the newsletter Matt.
Locals.com All the important stuff is in the description of the video. So whether I use a piece of software, important interviews, the sponsor, the partner, my charting software this that the other thing everything's in the description of the video. So if you ever have questions about my software this that the other thing as I just alluded to, it's most likely 95% chance that's in the description of the video. so feel free to check that out. With that being said, let's get into it. Let's talk about some of the craziness of the market. So last week was interesting Monday and Tuesday kind of held up, but you could tell that the Bears was still pretty serious. This purple line is the 48 EMA I Actually like to run with the 50 a little bit better, but this one's just Auto set to the 48.
I mean you could change it, but whatever. Um, as you can tell, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Six days Rejected Rejected Rejected Rejected Rejected. Um. So going from two weeks ago to last week, the start of last week, we continue with that rejection pattern.
Then everything changed on Wednesday So you're probably well aware that Friday of last week was a big options expiration. But maybe what's not so evident is that on Wednesday that was actually a volatility expiration. and the way the money was structured in the volatility contract this time around, you could actually argue that that's what was keeping the market up because inherently was keeping volatility down. So when Wednesday came around and that all expired, well, the train started to come off the track and then on Thursday That's when Daddy Pal, the chairman of the FED Jerome pal gave gave a speech at the economic Club of New York Sadly I wasn't invited.
that was the one that if you're watching the live stream. he was about to speak and then a bunch of climate protesters broke in and they're like uh, what were they saying like off Fossil Finance Jay off Fossil Finance as if he has anything to do with like going green or clean energy or oil like he's the chairman of the FED He doesn't deal with commodi or energy Royal It was a little bit ridiculous, but hey, it is what it is. So anyway, that was exciting but didn't really have anything to do with the market. What had an impact on the market is he continued to Echo his previous stances of rates higher for longer.
So what does that actually mean? Well, we actually saw the clear effect of it was people thought it was going to go that way. It clearly did. This is the 10year, it actually ended up tapping 5% This is the 10-year yield. and if you look at any of these yields us2 y Um, obviously that's now at 5.3 and I'm bringing that up because TLT which is the 20 your treasury bond ETF is absolutely vomiting.
Remember, they move inversely yields up bonds down, bonds up, yields down. They always have to move inversely. That is how these are literally structured. So anyway, we're in this situation where we have yields ripping.
We also happen to have the dollar ripping now last week. You could argue it took a bit of a breather, but the dollar has really been ripping since mid. July So like the dollar just going on an absolute tear. Yeah, maybe a little bit of consolidation last week.
but I don't know. like it's still obviously. look at this cloud, look at the EMA Cloud All the EMAs are pointing to the upside. If anything, this is a just consolidation. potentially before another rip if this thing starts to push 107. If the dollar, Index pushes 107 and we continue to see yields up. as in if this gets above and holds above 5% If we're in a scenario where we see the 10year yield above 5% we see the dollar Index above 107 and things are trending to the upside. I Would bet quite a bit of money that the market Market is going to continue to go down.
Um, so I Just want to bring that to your attention CU This is really the Hot Topic of what happened at the end of last week of why did we have this major breakdown on Thursday It's a fair argument that probably because Jerome Pal reiterated his stance of rates as in the FED fund rate, which has the trickle down effect to impact all these other rates such as yields and credit card payments and student loan payments and mortgages, there has a big impact on really lot of our day-to-day life. So when he's saying rates higher for longer, well, that cause yields to go up more, cause the dollar to go up more, and then that's when we saw equities start to really get knocked down. Uh, and then on Friday Obviously we continued even more down and broke another important support and we ended up basically closing at huge support from very early. October Um, with all of this put together, clearly there's a lot of things to pay attention to right now.
we're just effectively talking about monetary policy, but obviously the situation of the increased volatility in the Middle East The increased volatility here in the US political system with the Speaker of the house. None of that's helping this, but I would very very much argue that what we're seeing is more so of economic or Economic Policy driven rather than this news. I mean we've actually seen it historically before. like when you announce global conflict that actually tends to be bullish for the market.
So I'm not necessarily saying, um, obviously that whole situation, it's disheartening. It's sad, a lot of innocent people are losing their lives. so like I'm not in any way saying that's positive, but global conflict does historically tend to be a bullish I guess factor is probably the best way to put it for the overall stock market. So really, this dive on Wednesday Thursday Friday I would argue it's led by monetary policy specifically rates higher for longer, and we're starting to see some very real world impacts of that.
So if you look at at Tesla Tesla had a major major breakdown. We've been talking about this in the newsletter for a couple weeks now broke below the trend line, closed below the trend line had its earnings GED down, it missed on everything in its earnings and then things got even worse when Elon Musk Obviously the CEO of Tesla and kind of a pseudo CEO celebrity. it was the most pessimistic earnings call he's ever had. It was one of the worst earnings call of all time and he was very doomsday and obviously he's just talking about as yield go up. A lot of the times when people purchase Vehicles you're not buying it outright. A lot of people end up having to put it that in some sort of loan situation, so the loan itself is going to be more expensive when interest rates are continuing to go up. It's well known that Vehicles like automakers, very price elastic. so when things jack up like that, it's basically forcing them if they want to hit their delivery.
Target to continue to drop the price of their vehicles. If they continue to drop the price of their vehicles, it eats into their net margin and eating into the net margin. As an automaker, not so good. So in the short term I mean Tesla it did close below the low of mid August here I mean I think there's more pain? Uh, in the short term I Want to be very clear in the long term I'm still bullish on Tesla In the long term, we're talking about 10, 20, 30 years, what it's doing in the world of EVS What it's doing in the world of Robo taxis.
What it's doing in the world of trucking, What it's doing in the world of AI What it's doing in the world of Robo AI Workers like what it's doing across the board I mean even just the fact it's sting on so much Bitcoin is another thing to be bullish on in the long term. I'm very bullish on this company, but that doesn't mean that in the short term it's going to perfectly align. No. I Think there's various serious headwinds to pay attention to.
So little bit of negativity coming out of the world's Auto leading automaker. Uh, positive news for Netflix. So coming into its earnings Netflix took a nose dive from 450 all the way down to 350. Obviously a 20% decline.
Not a good situation, but when it came to its earnings, it was good. It the revenue was in line. The EPS was a slight beat. Their future guidance for the next quarter's EPS was a slight Miss but the reason it gapped up and then ran another like 6% after gapping up 9 or 10% was because of the new subscribers they were expecting.
6.2 came in at 8.7 So really, their bet on the pass for Crackdown sharing. Like what they're doing of saying hey, no, like sign up for your own Uh, they were obviously able to convert a pretty solid amount thus far beating the already very high expectations. So thus far my point in doing all of this is we've had two major earnings already in the world of the tech sector, which has a huge implication on the overall. Market just the way market cap.
Works Anyway, Tesla Missed Netflix beat. So thus far we're one for two. Whether you're bullish or bearish, doesn't matter how you look at it, it doesn't matter what side you're on. Thus far, were one for two.
This upcoming week, we have some big ones. Microsoft Microsoft Recently had a breakout in early October about a third of the way through October and now it seems like the breakouts not necessarily holding, it's still on top of its. EMA Cloud It's at an important support So Microsoft is very much at a decision point and what's going to decide if it actually keeps going up or if this breakout is a fake out. probably it's earnings after the market closes on Tuesday the exact same day we hear from Google Uh, Google's been trending up. it's on top of its em. Cloud Higher highs, higher lows. The Bulls are in control recently. Like the overall.
Market Wednesday Thursday Friday of last week it started to sell off so I'm watching it but I'm not the biggest. Google Trader The other one on the exact same day Tuesday after the market closes is Snapchat I'm I'm not trading it, but I'm paying attention to it because it does give you a better sense of the strength of advertisers Right now. Snap a very ad driven business. I Mean it's just social media and that's literally how they're making their money.
Um, so paying attention to it. but another one that last week it popped up on top of its 48. EMA EMA Cloud Crossing Back over. so heading into it, there's a little bit of optimism, so definitely paying attention to that.
Uh, the very next day we hear from Meta Meta another one that actually has been outperforming a lot of its peers lately. So we're seeing Meta and Snap I'm in no way saying that they're like the same business, but they are a related business. They're very much an ad driven business. So Snap and Meta performing well recently for that type of advertising, social media advertising.
uh, Meta ripping. potentially a fake out breakout, maybe just bouncing off of this 48. EMA So snap Meta in a similar situation. Meta reporting on Wednesday of this upcoming week we also have IBM just another tech name.
this one's not doing the best obviously broke down, came back up, retested, got smacked again I don't know if many of you are big IBM Traders but just something to pay attention to. and then the other major Tech name of the week is is Amazon Amazon Was doing really, really well and then it got kind of merked in late September when the FTC announced that it's coming after the company for potential antitrust. basically um, anti- monopolistic issues like or they're accusing them of having monopolistic practices. So the FTC uh, not the biggest ands of Jeff Bezos's brainchild at the moment in time and it came back up.
Try to get this upside Gap Fi to 13520 and just didn't have enough I guess gas left in the tank got smacked and now it seems like it's taking a quick nose dive back down to the potential double maybe ending up becoming a triple bottom at 124. So right now, we're in earning season after this week, earning season is going to be going on for another two weeks. so earning season is about a four to five week Affair and we're pretty much in the middle of it. Hold tight, My apologies I Decided to not take my anti-histamine today. I'm just kind of raw dogging it when it comes to cat dander. I Just figure it's time for my body to toughen up. I'm like dude, if a little kitten's dried saliva is going to make your internals crumble, maybe you're just not the man you thought you were going to be. So this is my mental Warfare against my own body.
I'm I'm looking at the histamines in my body and I'm saying hey buddies, if if you're going to overreact like that, like just just grow up, just grow like stop, it's a little kitten, You don't need to have this type of visceral outward reaction to it. If you want to keep it on the inside, do it. So I'm just basically saying eff it f it to his the means and I'm just I'm just doing it with my life. You know this is.
this is just how I do it. Uh, so my apologies for that. This is obviously 100% why I'm never really invited back on the Kelly Rip a show very quickly I Want to talk about oil strong ever since it bottomed in late June Rip from 67 got up. uh, shot past the resistance in the mid 93s, got up to the mid 94s hard smack.
and then ever since the conflict in Israel the war in Israel broke out oil slowly but surely trending back to the upside. So obviously if you're in the world of energy oil, pay attention to the names like Exxon Chevron Oxy Devon Marathon There's so many oil plays out there. so just for the people who are trading energy oil, that type of thing, pay attention to it. Israel itself is by no means a major oil producer, but the reason oil is now trading at an elevated price is people are taking in the some some level of statistical chance that the conflict could spread in the Middle East Um, obviously if it spreads a little bit, that could impact the actual trade routs.
and if it spreads a lot, it could actually impact the countries that are producing oil. And thus if Supply goes down, demand stays the same. price has to increase. That's just that's just the law of physics.
Don't ask me, it's just who made the rules I didn't make the rules, but it just it is what it is. Um, so want to bring that up to you as well. And now, uh H Actually, before we get into the overall Market Bitcoin's been looking awesome. Really, really awesome.
You guys know me. I'm a fan of Bitcoin I'm a fan of Ethereum. If I had to pick one I would actually just pick Bitcoin Um, but hey, I'm not a single lover type of a dude I do like Bitcoin I do like Ethereum I like Bitcoin the best I don't actively trade either of them I have a chunk of Bitcoin I have a chunk of Ethereum and I just sit on it and I sit on it and I sit on it and when I'm tired of sitting on it I continue to just sit on it. Um, so got back to the 30k region.
There's a lot of optimism right now of a spot Bitcoin ETF getting approved right now in real time as I'm filming this. we do have a Bitcoin Futures ETF but that's the difference between being cash settled and physically settled. And really the lame in terms of that is when you invest into these ETFs an exchange traded fund, Are you investing in something that's just tracking the price as in cash settle? That's what a Bitcoin Futures is or is it physically settled? As in it's the real thing. so we don't have the investment into an ETF that within that fund is the real thing. So a Bitcoin Futures ETF it's going up or down based on the Futures price. so it's just the net gain, net loss while a spot Bitcoin ETF When you're investing in that fund, that fund is legitimately buying Bitcoin and storing it. So as of the point that I'm filming this, we don't have a spot. Bitcoin ETF But it really really feels like we're knocking on the door uh, and getting approval.
It was months ago, where, uh, particularly the SEC More specifically, Gary Gendler, the chairman of the SEC had no real reason to keep denying it. But he did, because if you ask me, I don't think he's really on the side of retail. But hey, that's just my own opinion. That's my two cents on the situation.
Uh, but now it's gone on for so long that he hasn't had a legitimate reason that he's kind of being forced into, like, finally, finally accepting it. So just want to give you, uh, an update on the world of cryptocurrency. I'm in it I'm invested in it I Don't actively trade it I know a lot of you are in Bitcoin I Know a lot of you are in Eth. So as things get more exciting with it, as there's important news, obviously I will continue to uh, cover it.
but in the short term I'm not actively trading it I I own it when it's down I invest a bit more slowly but surely and when it's up I Just cover it and I sit there in green bullish Glory with all of you now returning to the market I Just wanted to point out yes, I get it the Spy Important breakdown here at 2 430. Another important breakdown here at 424 and it seems like we might be coming down to this 420 level to test the recent low from early. October If this were not to hold, then I'd be watching 416 and Below 416 my next Target would be 410. That can totally totally happen.
but I don't think it's necessar going to happen out of the gate this upcoming week and hear me out. I might be a crazy person and you guys might be like yo, there's Matt the crazy person. But let me just explain the method to my madness here. So this is the spy and we're looking at Gamma Gamma is the derivative off of Delta.
So in the world of Greeks Delta is the increase or decrease to your premium. Everything else. Tell concept. If the underlying asset goes up or down, $1 Gamma is the rate of change of Delta So just a little quick refresher there.
I'm sure a lot of you are very, very familiar with this. So anyway, looking at the Gamma, you can be in Net Gamma. Which means you sold a lot of options. Uh, a net negative Gamma? Excuse me, or net positive Gamma means you're long. A lot of options. So if you're long calls, long puts you are long Gamma. If you are selling calls, selling puts you are short Gamma Negative Gamma. So selling premium makes you negative Gamma.
Buying premium It doesn't matter if it's calls or puts, buying premium makes you long. Gamma Gamma has a very interesting relationship with Theta because they both increase the closer to expiration. So as you are getting to like that zero DT from like a 3dt to a two to a one to a zero. Uh, your Theta and your Gamma are really really really getting high.
But the way to take advantage of them. They're almost adversaries in a sense. So the magnitude of these numbers are increasing. But if you're selling calls or selling puts, the fact that Theta is increasing, that benefits you.
But the fact that Gamma is increasing That actually could hurt you because you have a lot of Gamma exposure. So like right at the end when there's maybe an hour to go in the market. if the market goes up or down a dollar, Well, you have a lot of Gamma exposure and it's that. Note that I Want to get in.
So this current expiration was actually from Friday What was that the 20th of this past week? Uh, the orange on the top are a bunch of calls for Friday and the reason I'm focusing on Friday's expiration is because it was A it was the monthly options expiration Like we had a lot a lot of money in the world of options on Friday That was just prompting a lot of volatility. A ton of money was in Friday's expiration. So anyway, on the top you have a bunch of calls. so and what you have on the X-axis On the bottom here are all the different strikes.
so all the calls for all the different strikes and then on the bottom the Blue Line These are the puts for obviously all the different strikes on the X-axis the Y- AIS over here is the gamma exposure. So anyway I want to focus on this right here. The 420 strike had about 5x more gamma exposure in the puts as it did in the calls. So what does that actually mean here? Well, it means that options market makers and like I know it gets a little crazy.
but remember, opt options Market Making is a single dealer Market If you are buying calls an options Market Maker is selling it to you. If you are selling calls and options Market Maker is buying it off of you. You are not participating with hedge funds. You are not participating with institutions.
You are not participating with other retail Traders The way you might in the equities AKA Stock Market When you are trading options, you are playing against the house. You are always playing against the house when you were playing options. Uh, trading stocks is more like playing poker. while trading Op options is a bit more like playing. Blackjack When you're trading options, you're always playing the house when you are playing equities. I Suppose you are playing the house sometimes, but also you could be playing other players. So imagine poker. but like the dealer is also actively allowed to play is maybe the best metaphor.
So anyway, this is important because you could see in the net situation what the average participants playing against the houses and thus we could also the opposite deduce the houses numbers. So I Know this is a bit confusing, but just give me a second cuz I Really think that I could tie this together? As you can see the put bar, this massive blue candle shows you how like basically the market makers were extremely negative. Gamma: they were selling as many puts as you possibly can. which tells you that the general populace was buying a bunch of puts.
But what's interesting is look at the strike. it's 420. The strike is 420. We concluded the day when the B By the time the bell went ding ding ding ding.
the market was at 42119. Which means that right here you have a lot of people trading who were long into puts. They bought a bunch of puts, options, market makers sold them a bunch of puts. You have a lot of active traders who bought puts at 420 and got burned, got burned, got burned, got burned.
Now this is interesting because you have a bunch of traders who got burned because obviously they were out of the money and the fact that it ended up out of the money means options market makers had a huge win. I Mean we're talking about half a billion. We're talking about 536 million of put exposure that the market makers now have. Granted they had about a 100 million in calls so that was actually in the money.
So even the difference there is s $400 million on this strike alone. For this expiration date, they were massively net. negative Gamma: that's like I Cannot stress the importance about of this enough because what does this mean going forward? So we know people, we know the house one. That's the best way I Can sum this up is if you're looking at the 420 strike for the Friday October 20th expiration the house one on that play and if you net it out, it's about 400 million If if you just look at the put side, it was about half a billion 536 million.
So remember if they're selling a bunch of puts as the Market's going down like it, it's just absolutely plummeting. You have institutions, hedge funds retail yoloing into puts, they're like Market Down Put Put Put Put Put Put Put market makers, they are legally obligated to sell you puts. so they're like, all right. I mean I Guess if people want this many puts, we're going to sell them a bunch of puts.
But these market makers if they're good at one thing, they're good at balancing out their books. So if they have a net negative gamma situation, this heavily net negative, this heavily net negative right here. I mean huge amounts This net negative. Well, they hedge that out by going short. They hedge It Out by going short. That's how you bounce your book out when you're so heavily net negative gamma. You bounce things out by taking short positions. They want to be net neutral That's What Makes You net neutral now that the Situation's over.
Now that that Delta effectively ended up to b0 Well, they can unwind that hedge because they don't need the Hedge anymore. So to tie this all together, the fact that this play for the stock market went bust and the house won means that the house can easily well. now to balance out their book, They're going to want to be net negative or excuse me net neutral. They don't want to force themselves to keep this net negative short position anymore.
Which means they can get out of the short. They don't have to hold a short against the market because the situation it's over now. So because of that, I just want to let you know that we're at support. So the market broke one support broke a second support.
We're coming up to a third major support. And now, yes, the options Market still does have a negative gam exposure, but not nearly as much as it was on Friday So we can see an un hedging of a situation from the market makers. and that actually the most. I Guess the tldr of this is that that that could actually represent buying.
That could actually represent bullishness in the market because we just have more of an appetite for buying. So my reason in bringing this up is when the Market opens on Monday opens on Tuesday opens on Wednesday Yeah, there's many other things to consider. We have macroeconomic events. We have a warn the Middle East we have earnings.
Yeah, there's other things to consider, but in that host of things you should be considering, you should be considering the fact that Options market makers at least at the start of the week, they could have their they themselves are not going to be bullish, but their decisions to bring their books back to neutral could actually have a net bullish, A net bullish impact on the stock market. So when I'm pairing that together with the fact that we're very close to support, don't be surprised if coming out of the gate if the market starts to get back above 423 424, maybe 425 426. So I just want to bring that to your attention because, uh, the fact that we've already had three very red days Wednesday Thursday Friday Coming up to Support and now paying attention to the options Market Please do not be surprised if there is a momentary pop now. Obviously other things can change it if Microsoft Google snap meta IBM and Amazon all Miss That's not good if tensions continue to rise or God forbid boil over in the Middle East that could be negative, pay attention to oil If The Fed members decide to like be even more hawkish. that could be negative. So like yeah, there's a lot to consider. but I'm just hearing a lot of more people talk about like the Doomsday of political events of global conflict events. and I'm not really hearing enough people talk about the pure mathematical impact of what we're seeing in the options Market Because these numbers are very, very big.
To summarize this, there was a lot of people yoloing into puts for Friday For 420, we ended up being above 420. Which means those YOLO those Deens lost the house won and even though the house won I Guess that's good for the house. it's bad for the hedge funds institutions Banks and Retail traders who yoed into the play moving forward. What does this mean? Well, to bring their book back to neutral, they kept it neutral to really I guess size up this but now that it's over, well I guess we could literally just look at the next expiration.
It's just a different histogram. Now we have different exposure on different ways. Um so right here this is 250 million it was -500 Million the next one I Know, like maybe the size of it. It looked a little bit wild, but for Monday it's half the exposure.
So with half the exposure, they don't have to have such a like a short bearish position. So once again, this is just looking at G Literally this website is called Spot Gamma so check it out! You can get a free twoe trial if you like want to get into the nerdy mathematical aspect of trading which in my opinion is the best way to be successful in trading. but whatever. I'm not going to twist your on to do it so I just wanted to bring that to your attention.
Obviously feel free to read the newsletter Maor Atl.com it came out this morning. It's free. You don't have to pay for this I break down the previous week and I also let you know what I'm looking forward to the upcoming week I give you all the major macroeconomic events nothing on Monday Uh, the crazy stuff really gets going on Thursday and Friday we get the GDP numbers and also the next inflation report pce I give you all the earnings and then the major ones that I think you're going to care about. But anyway Coca-Cola Verizon GE Microsoft Alphabet Snapchat Visa Meta IBM Boeing Amazon Intel And then we also have some energy plays on Friday uh seasonality for every single day of the week? uh Monday Historically bullish Tuesday Leaning bullish Wednesday bearish Thursday Neutral Friday bullish and then uh, this is actually what I'm most proud of from the last trading week was the zero DTE trading signals.
it actually bat at a thousand two every single day Monday to Friday and every single one was a hit. So very excited about that because two weeks ago was the worst performance of it and then last week was the best performance so kind of equaling it out so feel free to check that out. But a lot of easy easy plays in my opinion and then just all like we kind of already went through this but just the levels I'm watching on the Spy the Q Bitcoin itself looking really good. uh Tesla Clear breakdown. Looking forward to find support Nvidia I Forgot to talk about this but Nvidia Semiconductors as a whole these processing chips taking a noteworthy hit because the Biden Administration is increasing the regulations on these companies from selling their processing chips to China obviously kind of like a cold Wares like AI thing going on of like they basically America doesn't want China to have this technology because they don't want them to continue to develop their Ai and also just brought up Disney Disney looks like it's having a fake out breakout so maybe something to sell call Premium against but try to get going. couldn't kick going Disney looking a little bit sad and then um apparently what you guys are the most interested in is times I puked wall stair stepping this past week. uh, 2.3 so another just inciting data metric for all of you. Uh, but folks, that's it.
The Sunday streams are more of a higher level holistic view I Like to get more on Sundays into the nerdy mathematical stuff. If you want an even better options conversation, look at what's pinned at the top of chat In the description of the video, my talk with Julius Spina a mathematician researcher for Tasty Trade which is widely known to be probably the best educational service for options. so she's one of their researchers. We had a great conversation it got posted yesterday pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video I Know formula 1's about to start in 20 minutes I Know there's a lot of football today, so uh, I'm happy that you guys made the decision to stop by for a little a little bit hang out with me.
It means a lot to me. I Will be streaming once again tomorrow morning 9:00 a.m. bright and early I Hope to catch you there and we have some really, really good news on the Discord and all that stuff. So I'm going to be talking about that tomorrow when we have, um, more people paying attention to it.
I Just don't want to be reiterating the same thing over and over, but the tldr is the Discord will, uh, very, very quickly be fully rolling out to all of you who are interested who want to trade not only with me, but a lot of team members, a lot of other Goonies kind of creating a community of people people actively trading together. Instead of such a like a one-way conversation, we're looking for a multi-way conversation. so very very excited about that. That's what I have for you I Appreciate all the Good Vibes thank you thank you thank you Peace out Girl Scout Have a good one.
Can’t wait until you’re dressed up as a bull rider for the intro 😂
Matt u should do a vid on how to manage 0 dte trades. Everytime my 5-10th trade is a loss and takes back all my gains. So buying options almost makes more sense than selling spreads
Matt u old bag of mayonnaise you. ❤
Good vid.. I feel very slightly better on my 426 calls that expire this friday now. Darn degenerate brain undermining me every few months to kill my gains 🙁
The intro 😂😂 and How bout them Jaguars 🎉
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