All right now. hahaha Foreign, Welcome back to another episode of Mad Money with me your host Jimbo Kramer When we are gonna speedrun how fast we can blow up our trading accounts, you're not seeing anyone out there do this type of content everyone in the world of. Finance They're so fixated on losing money. Well, we're fixated on it.

They're fixated on winning money. That's why we do things differently here. We do it all differently here. Everyone's like, oh, this is where you buy low, sell, high, ride the trend, make money, minimal risk.

My question is why other people need to eat too. They really do. and for other people to eat, that means they need to make money. So someone in the trade has to be a sucker.

so we we might as well be the sucker if that makes any sense. I Hope you guys got your coffee already your Penn State Grandpa mug ready for the day I Also, um, also had a full red bull already. it's gonna be. it's gonna be an interesting day.

it's uh, definitely going to be an interesting one. So a couple things going down today and there's two crusty old white guys speaking. The first crusty old white guy speaking happens at 9 30. so in a mere half hour and his name is Jerome Powell Even though his name sounds cool, he's all right.

I Shouldn't say he's bad, but like I don't think he's like particularly cool if that makes sense. Anyway, he's the Chairman of the Fed, the cabal of a central bank that decides our Financial Health He'll be speaking at 9 30 our time, but he's actually in Europe Then he's speaking again tomorrow. just so everyone knows. but it's really early in the morning.

it's at 2 30 in the morning. and uh, that's for some special conference I Don't think many of us are going to be getting up for that one. But anyway, so he's speaking today again tomorrow. But the other crusty old white guy talking today is a guy by the name of Joe Biden who is currently the president of the United States So he'll be speaking at 1pm I Believe in Chicago about the his economic plan.

so I figured we should do a specialty stream and also do that one. So two big speeches today and there's going to be some others coming down later this week. Speaking of later this week, we also get the GDP revision tomorrow Thursday so we could start the stream early and then on Friday we get the Pce report the Personal Consumption Expenditure, which is another inflation report that comes out also an hour before the Market opens, but that one's on Friday So we have some important macroeconomic reports, we have some important speeches, and we also just have some important news updates. So to bring things into more recent happenings you might have noticed maybe late last night or early this morning that Semiconductors I'm talking about Nvidia AMD Intel Micron that stuff.

Look at the ETF SMH the van X semiconductor or something. something I forget at this moment in time. but that's the ETF that tracks that world. You know those little processing chips CPUs p Uh, Gpus things important in the world of data centers you're going to need it for AI You're going to need it for crypto mining.

all that stuff. It's an important piece of technology. Well, anyway, those are all down Down down. There was a report basically I believe it was first reported by The Wall Street Journal Came out late last night.

not late that late. Well, I guess it depends really. I go to bed at nine so it's kind of late for me. it was close to my bedtime.

But anyway, uh, report that there's going to be kind of more of political interference basically. Uh, decision made by the US government to stop quite a bit of the chips being sold from Nvidia and AMD and the likes to China. So obviously these Revenue goals like let's look at some of these lofty goals such as Nvidia that had a target of like 11 billion for the quarter. Well, if they're not allowed to sell, kind of makes it difficult to hit a revenue goal.

So that's why the likes of Nvidia AMD Intel Micron All those companies are down. maybe even Broadcom I haven't looked at Broadcom this morning. Uh, but I'm assuming they're all under pressure. so definitely a major watch for me.

Another major watch is going to be the overall. Market the Spy The queues. yesterday. after a week and a half of trending down lower highs and lower lows, we actually had a nice breakout to the upside.

Granted, we're coming down a little bit this morning because we did have a beautiful push yesterday. but I Want to see if there's a continuation if there is a continuation. Obviously in the short term. I'm going to be bullish now.

I Don't really necessarily feel good about it. We know the seasonality of the end of July Excuse me. The end of June is a bearish one, but then when we get going in July it becomes bullish. Uh, the seasonality of the day? not necessarily the best.

Do I think everything's overvalued? Yeah, I think it's overvalued. But as a day trader as a swing, Trader you just gotta stick to price action. typically. The trend.

Your friend. It's not saying the trend, your friend if it makes sense. Also, in your head that makes you sleep better at night. But inherently, when you're making money or losing money, it's because of price action.

So we can sit here and bitch and moan and complain about things not making sense. and being like it's fundamentally overvalued, undervalued, blah blah blah blah blah. I Lost my mind in dark pools. And it doesn't matter because what we're doing here is attempting to make money whether you're a day trader.

swing Trader Investor: your goal should be to make money and ideally a lot of money with a little bit of risk. And seems like that whole little bit of risk thing is something that we all tend to throw out the window. but hey, sometimes it makes for good content. Sometimes you're down over ten thousand dollars and you decide to YOLO half of your account into one DTE calls in a bear Trend And then the market magically turns just because of a recommendation that your Barber got you gave you when you're getting your hair cut and then it turns out you go green on the game day.

like I mean sometimes that just works some. Sometimes that's the real world of trading and that's exactly why we call this mad Money with Jimbo Kramer If you haven't already, folks, destroy the like button murder, Kill it, unalive it, throw it in, elbow into the temple, just push the front of its face into the back of its skull. Whatever you're doing right now if you're talking to your kids because you're dropping them off at school, if you're are talking to your manager because you have to get the game plan for the day. if you're simply saying bye to your spouse because they're about to leave for like a multi-year chip in China tell them to shut up for one second.

You have more important things going on and that more important thing is for you to hit the like button and don't forget to subscribe. Even if your kids are like oh, like I need to talk to you about something. Be like yo. Shut up kiddo.

We have the rest of our life together, but you can't always have the opportunity to smash the like button before the Market opens. So I just want to share that with everyone. Also, maybe if you want to show a little bit of love to today's stream sponsor I'm talking about Street People Uh, you guys have probably never heard me Pitch this before. It's a new Innovative Robo Advisor You can buy and sell stock the way you normally would, but on top of that, they have pre-built AI trading strategies and you could also build your own AI Trading strategies with chat GPT So I think it's awesome.

Like I said, there's some pre-built ones you could build your own and you could also buy and sell stock the way you normally would. It's all up to you. You could do like. kind of a hybrid approach if you so choose.

The one that I've been fascinated with recently is the Congressional trading strategy. Basically, it just mimics Congress whatever they're buying, you're buying. whatever they're selling. you're selling if you look at its performance on any major time frame.

Um, basically when it started in 2020 as in the AI strategy, the last year year today, six months, three months in the past month, every single one of those time frames has outperformed the S P 500. Which is odd because that means all of our politicians are outperforming the S P 500. And if our politicians are outperforming the S P 500, it makes you wonder: how do they find the time Hedge funds? Half of hedge funds don't outperform the S P 500. So you're telling me people whose job it is 24, 7 to focus on the markets, half of them don't beat the market.

But then people who are elected and should be spending all of their energy on making the best locality or state or country for their constituents, they're out performing it to a noteworthy degree. In the past year, the Market's up 15 roughly and Congressional trading strategies up 30. They're not just barely beating it. they've doubled it.

That's the world we live in. But anyway. uh, if you can't beat them, join them. If you want to mimic political trade, Streepy, in my humble estimation, is by far the easiest way to do it.

Click on the link or just download the app put in the code Matt When you sign up, That's how you get a bonus five to five thousand dollars when you get rocking. And on that note, we should get rocking. We should get rocking spy ripped all day. Apple Still, someone is apparently the sucker buying it at new all-time highs and I truly just don't understand it at all.

But hey, that's what life is. You could see AMD getting crushed. You can see Nvidia getting crushed. how's Micron Micron is reporting soon? Just so you know, just for the earnings Micron down Uh, let's see if this ever loads.

Intel down Broadcom down Every single major Semiconductor Company is down this morning on the news that there's going to be a little bit of political interference in the world of these semiconductors allowed to be trade. So we're going to be talking about that. We're also going to be talking. uh, obviously when the Market opens, we're going to be listening to Jerome Powell He starts speaking at 9 30 so that's now in a 20 minutes.

So obviously we will be listening to that. We will be paying attention. and I think it's going to have a pretty large impact on the market. but among other things, there are some important things going down.

Let me open this up and we'll save that one for later. S P 500 futures inch lower after Tuesday Tech fueled rally so massive rally in the overall. Market Also, in particularly the NASDAQ being helped quite a bit by Apple I mean Nvidia was going Netflix was going all the major Tech players were moving yesterday. Do I think it's reasonable? Well, it kind of depends on how you define reasonable I don't think it's reasonable I Think everything's overvalued, but sometimes that doesn't matter.

Sometimes fundamental value doesn't matter unless you're a little bit longer term. Sometimes we just have to look at the concept of are things breaking out breaking down, moving, average balances over extensions if you're a short-term Trader as in a day trader swing Trader Yeah, it's good to know fundamental value, but it's not necessarily going to be the driving reason for your entries and exits. So hey, just something to discuss. Early this morning, we got an update.

In the world of real estate, mortgage demand grows driven by sales of new homes, the average contract interest rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgages with conforming loan balances increased to 6.75 from 6.73 So interesting still. Sky High Applications to refinance home loans Rose three percent for the week, but were 32 percent lower than the same week one year ago. applications for a mortgage to purchase a home also Rose three percent from the week and were 21 lower year over year. Now not directly related to this, but something I still found fascinating uh I don't know did I let I I hope I liked it just so I could bring it up to all of you usually I save things by just smashing the like button so I don't know if you guys have seen this graphic.

uh uh Airbnb Prices drop like Airbnb Oh, here we go. This is crazy. The Airbnb collapse is real. Revenues are down nearly 50 percent in cities like Phoenix and Austin Watch out for a wave of force selling from Airbnb owners this year in the areas hit hardest by the revenue collapse Airbnb Revenue collapse the top 10 cities.

we're talking serious double-digit drops Tennessee Arizona Texas South Carolina Texas North Carolina Maryland Tennessee Colorado Colorado All in the top 10 all down 37 all the way up to 47. It's actually wild I Didn't realize that this was going on in Airbnb but some of the most popular areas getting absolutely decimated and then they were showing some of the revenue like taxes just getting screwed on this deal like I thought things were coming down but not to this degree. so I just wanted to share that with you. Apparently the idea of this this travel but instead of like recently I found that Airbnb prices are being set too high I Don't know if anyone else has noticed this phenomena.

but a couple of years ago like 2017 2018 2019 if I was traveling, my go-to was Airbnb because I knew that it was cheaper than hotels. but whatever's been going on really in the past couple of years I've been checking both of them. Whatever area I have to go to I'll get an Airbnb and I have to look at a hotel and hotels are in my recent experience way cheaper and I think the thing here is with Airbnb the weird extra charges that they have a lot of the time related to cleaning. Like at first it seems cheaper, but then I look at the taxes being added on and then I look at the cleaning being added on and sometimes it's not even like comparable like hotels.

Nice hotels are sometimes quite a bit cheaper. So for any of you traveling in the short term I highly recommend you check out both options because I feel like I'm part of the reason that Airbnb revenues have been diving just because it's just not cost effective. I I Just don't understand I Don't know if it's just me, but it seems like those extra add-on fees are becoming absolutely egregious. but I would definitely love to get your thoughts on him.

Speaking of thoughts: we are going to be getting thoughts from Jerome Palette 9 30 today. that's the main watch of the day at least in the morning and then at 1 pm. ET right after lunch Joe Biden will be speaking like I said I believe in Chicago talking about his economic plan so we could do a specialty stream for that if you guys so choose. Once again, that's at 1pm.

uh Jerome Powell Speaking again tomorrow very early in the morning and then an hour before the Market opens. we get the GDP revision and then on Friday we get the next inflation report, the Pce the personal consumption expenditure. In terms of media, it seems to be less popular than the CPI report another measure of inflation. But if you listen to the Fed they allegedly weighed the Pce inflation report more heavily than they re-way the CPI report.

You might be thinking yourself, why do they that do that? It depends. It really comes down to like what's in the report and how they get to it. The Pce report relative to the CPI report is thought to be more Broad in the things it's measuring and also more timely. less of a lag.

So that's why the FED allegedly likes it a little bit more. Also, the things you should be paying attention to this week: Micron A semiconductor reporting right after the market closes today and then tomorrow after the market closes, we get Nike but we're not really even in earning season anymore, so there's not that many. Why is everything running slow today Biden says he thinks the U.S Economy will avoid potential recession quick before you have any time to think about it. Do you agree? or do you disagree? Do you agree or disagree? When Biden says he thinks the U.S economy will avoid potential recession, that's kind of a clunky headline.

Either we do avoid it or we don't. How do you avoid something that is potential? Trust me. I'm a guy who knows all about potential and not having it. This is interesting to me, will avoid potential recession.

That's not. that's not a good head I Think that's not even grammatically correct Biden says he's he thinks U.S Economy will avoid potential recession. Either you think we're going to avoid a recession or you don't. How do you avoid a potential recession? We already have a potential recession like we're living in.

like there is potential for a recession. So how could we avoid literally what reality is Anyway, poor title from Bloomberg but maybe they just needed a couple more words. President Joe Biden Told donors he thinks the U.S will avoid a potential recession that economists and banks have long been predicting. So we have economists and Banks who think there might be a recession and then we have a guy who has no economic or financial.

or Wall Street Background: I Don't know. Seems like it's a pretty fair fight. Economists have been saying a recession is coming next month. it's been coming for 11 months.

Well guess what? I don't think it is going to come. Um, he's citing strong labor market and his efforts to Tamp down on inflation. Yeah, which is weird because it's the thing that we're doing to fight inflation. Might be what's prompting a recession.

You can't You can't really have both. Tamping down inflation is inherently the Federal Reserve Through monetary policy, not making an accommodative environment. if you don't have an accommodative environment, you're increasing the chances of a recession. And a recession would be a side effect because obviously what they're really trying to do is Jack up unemployment rate by about one percent.

We're roughly at 3.58 Looks like their SCP projections are going for 4.5 within a year. So I I I Don't get it. It seems like really backwards. but hey, I don't know I've never been elected president of the United States So maybe I just don't know something Biden pitches voters on benefits of big government bidenomics whenever I hear big government instantly, it's almost a knee-jerk reaction.

I Just think, go fuck yourself big government I don't understand why anyone actually really votes for big government and I get it. It might be a function of my age and my lack of experience. Yeah, I get it. Maybe I'm just I don't have enough of life behind me to like understand that.

maybe big government is good. But at this moment in my life, in my current vantage point and based on the experiences I have to this moment, anytime the government's like yo, we should be bigger. We should have more power I Don't know if there's a time that that's actually like worked in the citizens like benefit. Um, once again, maybe I'm just uninformed.

Maybe I'm just like not old enough. Maybe I just don't have enough experience. That's totally possible. but I I just to the minimal experience I have now I I Don't know a time when big government's like yeah, no, no, we we wanted that.

It worked out well. It totally worked out well. President to make major economy speech with ion 2024 vote Hilltop Industrial Drive as GOP Rivals Hammer on inflation. Well, literally in the last article, he was trying to hammer on inflation.

So that's a little bit of a conundrum if you ask me. But anyway, Biden Speaking at 1pm, we will be doing a specialty stream if you're watching right now. I Just want you to know that we're going to do a specialist D stream at 1pm and I expect you there President Joe Biden is about to launch his most ambitious effort to persuade skeptical voters that the U.S economy is thriving on his watch, a case that's key to his re-election prospects. I Mean the economy isn't like horribly messed up right now, but thriving is an interesting word.

I guess I'll leave it to you guys. you guys are normal people within this world. or at least so I'm told. um, do you think that the economy is thriving I Know, imagine, try to be as analytical about the situation as you can.

To me: I See, unemployment is low roughly out of five decade low, so that's actually really good. The labor Market's tight, but inflation is Sky High So how could a How could an economy be thriving if inflation is Sky High So like I'm not necessarily saying it's bad I'm not saying like we're in a financial crisis I'm not saying we're having a depression because there are strong reports, but there's also some very bad reports. So I don't know. Thriving is interesting.

like I I don't understand that one. Um, if we were just trying to be as like quantitative as we can keep gaming streaming like a rock star, Thank you. This is a game. This is the new Call of Duty The President will deliver what the White House is calling a major dress in Chicago on Wednesday to outline the theory and practice of biodynamics.

He'll draw a contrast with small government philosophy and Republican opponents have a spouse for decades and argue that his more interventionist approach is already delivering benefits for lower income. Americans in particular and rebooting the U.S industry. What the fuck like Does no one see the like? Am I the crazy person Am I just taking crazy pills rebooting U.S Industry Well, why do we need to reboot the U.S Industry If the economy is thriving, this is just classic political speak. And it happens on both sides.

If you're left, yeah, it happens on your side. If you're right, yeah, it happens on your side if you're in the center. Yeah, it happens on your side too. This is just classic political speak.

It's not a left-leaning thing. It's not a right-leading thing. It's a political thing. And what I mean by a political thing is it's statements made by these elected officials where they say a lot but mean absolutely nothing.

And if they do mean something, you can commonly find a way where they just instantly contradict themselves. how can you say that we have a thriving economy and yet we need to reboot the U.S industry like that's not. those things don't go together, they they just don't go together. Uh, But once again, um, he wants to draw contrast with small government philosophy as in he wants a larger government and I'm just of the opinion that whenever we have a larger government, it just doesn't work out well.

Is this clear sign yet that Biden 80 plans to put the economy at the center of his campaign for a second term, which would prove a high risk strategy after two years of Rapid inflation? Americans are generally unimpressed by the state of their economy, and things could get worse if there's a recession before election day, as many forecasters expect. Oh geez, the Biden speech won't contain any new proposals. Instead, the President is seeking to focus on strengths of today's economy, especially the hot Job market, and combine that with a story about how his initiatives will dive drive a deep and Lasting transformation a deep and Lasting transformation on apparently something that's already striving, which is an interesting way to consider it all. More than 200 billion in Ronal loans potentially stolen from frosters According to Watchdogs This is just adding up in terms of the government messing up things that relate to money and I'm not even talking about that.

I'm not talking about the deficit I'm talking about basic things like this: 200 Billy accidentally giving away to fraudster with Ronal loans uh six Billy accidentally miscounted for when it comes to Ukraine Like it just we're not talking Millions We're talking billions of dollars that you just wish someone a little bit more intelligent maybe has a little bit more attention for detail which driving this particular train because all I see is just egregious waste and from our government. and once again, this is the story is all the time. I'm not particularly picking on the current Administration I would pick on any single Administration ever because I think everyone is egregiously pissing away our tax dollars Chinese AI stocks follows U.S reportedly ways curb on chips. This is the big issue right now with semiconductors.

This is why Nvidia is down. Amd's down all those are down Chinese AI Sucks fell Wednesday on news that the US is planning to impose more chip restrictions on China China's CSI Artificial Intelligence Index slip 3.76 inspur Electronic Information Industry and it keeps going going like just all getting completely nailed. The Wall Street Journal report, which cited sources familiar with the matter, said that the curbs could come as quickly as next month to stop Nvidia and other chip makers from selling to customers in. China Just a clear hit to the revenue Nvidia drops on report U.S plans more AI chip curbs for China Nvidia LED declines in tech stocks after a report Washington could close loopholes in the sale to China of powerful chips used to train artificial intelligence, potentially denting sales and the world's top semiconductor Market Nvidia which gets about a fifth one fifth of its revenue from China slid 4.6 in pre-market trading before the New York Stock Exchange open rival AMD fell about 3.7 So if their projection is 7 billion just from data center, 11 billion in Revenue I mean a fifth of it.

Let's say they lose the half of the fifth if they're able to close up the loophole or not. or depending on where we are. that's serious we're talking about in the short term like in excess of potentially a billion dollar hit like this is a series Serious update: Nvidia This year design less capable chips that fall under thresholds that require a license from the Commerce Department before export to China or other countries of concern. Washington is now weighing action as soon as next month to expand the curves to include those lower powered semiconductors.

so we were never really sending them our top stuff, but even the lower stuff that was made so they can still I guess play in this type of Commerce The US is potentially saying no way Jose to that. so definitely something to watch today. Nvidia is definitely one of my main watches of the day. Google violated its standards in ad deals.

According to a research firm, about 80 percent of Google's video ad placements on third-party sites violated promise standards According to a new research study. Obviously Google disputes it, but we might be wanting to want to watch Google today to see if this update from The Wall Street Journal has any negative lasting impacts. So definitely Google on the watch list as well Google distances itself from plan drag performance after employee petition Google has distanced itself from a planned drag show After some employees signed a petition opposing The Pride Event: a few hundred employees signed the petition opposing the drag performance claiming it sexualizes and disrespects Christian co-workers and accused Google of religious discrimination. The company said the drag performance remains open to the public but is encouraging employees to attend a social gathering at Google offices instead.

Why are offices having drag performances? I worked in Corporate America for a little bit and the corporate America I worked in there. there wasn't drag performances there that that didn't happen. Also, when I grew up in school, we didn't have drag performances either. so neither the only time I like actively knew about drag performances were in college and that was because it was college.

But as I was a student, elementary, middle and high school and then as a corporate employee, drag performance is really weren't coming across my radar that often. and they definitely weren't companies supported. and I don't know what a drag performance necessarily I don't understand the connection to LGBT like if you're a drag performer, you're a drag performer. I Also, don't necessarily understand like the religious thing of saying that it's like anti-christian or anti-catholic I don't think Jesus was writing around about drag reform I'm just getting confused I'm actively confused about this whole drag stuff and why it seems to be like the hot topic of the day.

like are we having more or is the media just reporting about it more and maybe I just lived under a rock? Uh, but it's just the amount of media hits related to a drag performance. Uh, confusing me at the moment in time Costco cracks down on membership card sharing now I Know that was a tough transition. This actually has nothing to do with drag performance. it's just I don't want to confuse anyone in the audience this I'm bringing up because to me it has the same kind of Vibe of what Netflix is doing Netflix with the whole no, don't share your password anymore Costco is saying don't share the membership and we actually saw that it kind of panned out pretty well for Netflix Now I know that there was a general backlash in the world of like, why would you make us pay for this service We want to keep stealing your service.

So yeah, maybe there's a general backlash, but in terms of the business, it's probably just going to cause more people to sign up for Netflix And in terms of Costco I feel like it's just going to cause more people to sign up for Costco So maybe we'll take the public reaction which is most likely going to be negative, but then look at the actual business reaction: I Think it's just going to drive more membership signups Fanatics Increased its offer to 225 million to acquire points bet U.S assets I'm just bringing this up because recently we saw kind of the World of Sports gambling pop a little bit DraftKings pen so maybe worthwhile to put on your radar. And last but not least, the seasonality for today Wednesday June 28th After testing this individual day over the past two and a half decades, the polls of 148 of the time profit factor is 68 per 68 cents. As then it's the net loss and that's why the bias is leaning bearish. I'm not calling it an actual bearish day.

it's somewhere between being bearish and being neutral somewhere like kind of leaning bearish. But let's see how things really end up playing out. Five things. No before that, Bell goes dingy ding ding today Wednesday June 28th We're almost wrapping up the week and the month and Q2 and really halfway through the year shaking it off.

Yeah, we had a nice bounce back in the market. Summertime Blues We're actually seeing Yeah. I Mean this isn't we're seeing Delta United and Southwest actually do pretty good recently. Obviously people are getting mad about a lot of delays, so that's beyond frustrating.

But in terms of stocks, they're looking pretty good. Pride Month Battlegrounds Once again like this, we're seeing it everywhere. Starbucks Filed a labor complaint against the Baristas Union Arguing the group engage in a smear campaign against the company over its Pride policies. We're seeing a lot of this: Costco cracks down.

we cover that. Ukraine sees Putin's end coming soon. Well, we definitely hope it happens. Will it happen? That's a completely different story, but as we get ready, hang on, Hang on.

Let me switch these all to the one minute and let me get our boy Biden up on the big screen. Is he speaking at the session? Will resume shortly. Okay, so I have that you guys can't hear it yet allegedly and it will probably be happening. but um, he's speaking in Europe at the ECB the European Central Bank so that's equivalent in Europe that's the equivalent to our fed.

Uh, so he's speaking over there and he's going to be speaking again tomorrow. So we have this up. it's ready to go. I'll move it over on this screen and then I'll kind of just chop it up so it's a little so you can watch.

Also, the market open so let me do this very very quickly. All right, we have that and we have this. All right. All right.

All right that is rocking. and let me just add this to the screen because we are going to get going. Oh golly, we have 15 seconds everyone. Buckle up.

Uh, as of right now I have no positions. You guys saw me degenerately trade some calls yesterday I got absurdly lucky. uh as of right now I am completely completely flat right here I have no Futures Physicians I have nothing going on in my wee ball account. uh I'll let you know how that changes.

but I don't really want to do anything until I know what by or until Jerome Woody is or isn't saying the casino is open. Best of luck to all. play responsibly if not have fun. All right.

well We're Off to the Races You guys know me I want to sit on my hands for the first 10, 20, 30 minutes. just kind of see how things are shaking up, especially when we know Biden suppose or excuse me I keep saying Biden Biden is speaking but that's at 1pm. the chairman of the FED Jerome Powell is going to be starting momentarily. Let me actually add that to the screen just so we can see what he is saying or isn't saying.

Uh, let me get this added to do that doesn't look exactly right, but let's see what we can do. My name is Matt I am so fat. Oh yes I am Sometimes I Cry and wish I would die but that's because I'm a fat matte Fat Matt Fat Matt Fat Matt All right, well are we resuming or not, brother, Come on, come on. all right.

the session has not started yet. We are just waiting. uh uh, where are we at? Where are we at? Uh I Didn't really ask you folks quite yet. but what's your Vibe on the day? Are you feeling bullish? Are you feeling embarrassed if we look at the daily chart? Uh and I would feel more bullish if we get above 436.

We'll call it 75 a breakout from yesterday's high in this previous High Um, right now we're kind of mid-range and I wouldn't feel that bearish unless we get below like 432. So we kind of have a wide range today. so I'm not feeling in terms of the S P 500. I'm not feeling like the most jumpy like I need to make a position right out of the gate just because I know we're far away from the high.

We're far away from the low. The fact that we potentially put in a low on the daily chart right here in this three bar setup. Not counting today, but the previous three days, the metal bar has a lower high and a lower low. and on each side of it, the left and right side.

it's surrounded by bars that have a higher high and a higher low. so there's a chance that this is a low setup obviously I'd feel more comfortable about it if we actually get above like let's call it 437. But right now, uh, relative to yesterday's close, we did gap down into yesterday's bar. We're a little bit over half range, just kind of waiting.

honestly. uh, waiting to see how it all plays out I'm very much watching Nvidia Nvidia is a major one on my watch list today just because. uh, we did have a decent recovery. Well, huge push in Nvidia Went from fourth or 373 to 440, coming down all the way to 401 and remember, this is where it's a trillion dollar company right above 404 I believe so it's just above that trillion dollar Mark But I'm wondering if maybe this ends up breaking down I don't know I'm going to put some alerts on Nvidia Uh, definitely something on my watches.

looking for the breakdown of 404.50 and looking for the breakdown of potentially 401 if it comes super early. I might just miss it. but I see Nvidia trending down as the NASDAQ is actually going up. Don't forget.

Not Only was the spy in the NASDAQ strong yesterday, but so was the Russell 2000. The small cap sector was absolutely crushing it. Uh, does anyone know what's up with Netflix someone's asking me about Netflix What do you mean? What's up with it? It's just bouncing like the rest of the market did. Looks like it's going in the way of the spy and the queues it's been.

It's almost tracking perfectly with it. Huge rip up coming down for about a week and a half and now we're pushed into the upside. I Don't think there's a particular update from Netflix Uh, and obviously it's going to deviate a bit from the cues in the Spy but I see Netflix going up I see the cues going up is Apple also going up. everyone just keeps buying Apple Blows my mind.

Absolutely blows my mind. but hey, um I can't even though it blows my mind I Can't hate on them too hard because apparently they're making some good money from it, making some good money from it. Uh, it's a Blairish day I Feel shout out Robbie Robbie You're up early Netflix is a pump and jump. Just saying it's a pump and dump.

I Mean it's a pretty legitimate business. Most of the time when you're saying a pump and dump, you're referring kind of to like a random know nothing stock. I mean this is 180 889 billion dollar company. It's tough to call that one a pump and dump I mean they have a legitimate business with like I mean it's it's Netflix It's not like some shitty thing like Lord sound Motors Workhorse Gns Gtii those are like I would argue more of quintessential pump and dumps Tesla Will probably go down next week.

uh I'm curious what very well my I mean I have a little bit more of a bearish thesis myself I'm just kind of curious. like what your reasoning is for it I'm also wondering why is this guy not speaking Mullen Trash. A lot of these are just run by such scummy. CEOs uh obviously the CEO of Lordstown motor I don't know if you guys saw that video yesterday I put it up on Rumble and YouTube uh, he's proven himself to be a massive scumbag.

The CEO of Gns proven himself to be a massive scumbag, the CEO of Mullen proven himself to be a massive scumbag. I Just don't understand how such immoral scummy fucking people are getting to such levels of power. I Just don't get it. did you get your crypto back from? Voyager Yep, Yes.

I sent it to my own self-custody wallet. So I am out of the clutches of out of the clutches of the the Voyager at this point in time. but I took a big hit obviously with it I mean from the high of that account value to what the money I just got out I think I lost 90 percent yeah I got 10 back and then from like the date where it was all Frozen and like the money I got I got about a third of it. so obviously that when a high it came down they froze everything from the Frozen moment to what I got I got about a third oh are we going I think we might be in business I hear some crowd crowd participation Maddie Happy Anniversary Love when you sing but the lyrics need some work Thanks for all you do love the Moon Gang Christina I'll never eat Cheetos for the remainder of my life and not think about our Twitter interaction.

For those of you who don't know, Christine and I together as a team, internet bullied someone who's internet bullying me and it I was at the gym no I'll explain it now because it's more important. um I was at the gym and this girl who looked overly tan was saying something stupid and then I saw Christina's response. the very first response under it was shut up Cheeto and I was drinking water at the gym I think it was on the treadmill or something in Philly and I just spit my water everywhere and now for the remainder of my life I Just think of that interaction when I eat Cheetos Restrictive territory to Institute should send goals and is it possible to do so without creating a recession? Did you guys vote Polish to Parish on the day? The members of our next panel will bear a great deal of responsibility for bringing inflation back down to two. and not only that, but keeping it there Sarah Eisen The closing bell anchor at CNBC will be moderating this session.

Sarah Over to you thank you! Claire And let me just say, as a business and financial journalist who started out in Foreign Exchange, this is pretty much as good as it gets. So thank you for having me, um, talking to the Big Four today and what? I Love I'm excited for this conversation because it's always fun when when everybody's in different places and going at different speeds are looking good. maybe disagreeing if you dare to do so today. So thank you all President! Lagarde I'll start with you as the host of this meeting on on the view from Europe I'm curious where all of you are in terms of this policy path.

We've certainly seen a fight against inflation. You've been very clear that there's more work to do. How much more Six, thank you so much! Sarah It's very nice having you in, uh, in this closing moment and I'll take this opportunity to thank all the contributors, those who have prepared papers, those who have worked with the presenters and all the panel members, it's been really, really a rich conference and I want to to thank you. So as far as the European Central Bank is concerned and the Euro system at large, we have covered a lot of ground.

We have increased Apple new high our interest rates by no less than 400 basis points in a very short order, less than a year and and we still have ground to cover. And I Think that as I said earlier on, we are data dependent. We will decide on a meeting by meeting basis, but we know that we have ground to cover and if our Baseline stands then we also know that we will very likely hike again in in July What about September that I will not tell you and for a very simple reason that I just mentioned we are data dependent, we'll decide meeting by meeting and you know we'll tell you. For the September meeting we will have received a lot more data, information, survey results and it's going to be another projection meeting prepared by the the staff of the ECB So we will have a lot a lot in our hands to Uh to make our decision then Governor Bailey You surprised the market recently raising interest rates by 50.

you did a double. Why did you feel the need to do that? A double? Well it really picks up on the theme that Christine has just uh just developed. First of all, I mean he turned out uh to be much more resilient and that's a good thing. I mean there's many good aspects to that, but what goes with that resilience is signs of uh although tight labor market which is which is showing through in Pay uh pay Awards uh but also showing free I mean we've got a an unemployment markets historically right at the low end so that resilience is coming through that way.

but when we looked at the at the again to Christine's point when we looked at the data because we too are being driven by evidence at the moment. the cumulative data both particularly on the labor market and on the inflation release we had which to us showed clear signs of persistence uh caused us to conclude that we had to make really quite a strong move. At that point it was justified my own. My own view on that was if we were really of the view that we were going to do 25 and then we were really sort of baked in front of the 25.

based on the evidence we'd seen, it was better to do the 50. Uh, and then we will. as Christine said we will be bouncing off of two days ago, have you received a lot of flack for the move? Well I think at the moment I can understand why. Uh, there are critics of of us and central banks.

We have a job to do. It's I'm very clear that our job and all of us at that care I Think our job is to return inflation to Target and we will do what is necessary I understand the concerns that go with that, but I'm afraid I always have to say that it is a worse outcome if we don't get inflation back to Target something I know you, You've all been saying chair Powell You've said it many times and yeah, ripping again thus far and you're not calling it a skip. So what are we calling it? Well first of all Sarah thank you and Christine thanks for hosting us here in uh in Sintra. So um, what we're calling it is maintaining the level of the Federal Funds rate at its current level for the for this meeting.

Thank you thank you Um, and we did that. If you think about it, we've We've raised the Federal Funds rate by 500 basis points since a little more than a year ago and we think so. We've come a long way. We also think that there's more tightening power coming through.

really? policy hasn't been restrictive for very long. We started at you know, negative real interest rates and we've now moved up to where we actually are in restrictive territory. But we haven't been there very long so we believe there's more restriction coming. And what's really driving it you know to Andrew's point and Christine's as well is very strong labor market.

We've got a labor market that you know where jobs are being created. There's strong wage gains and that's driving spending, driving real incomes and driving spending which is driving more demand and continuing to drive labor markets. So the the labor market is really is really pulling the economy and um, my colleagues and I as you as you will know wrote down Nrsep two more additional rate hikes. The median was quite a strong majority, actually running into a little bit of a wall.

Great hikes and the reason for that was if you look at the data over the last quarter, what you see is stronger than expected growth. Uh, tighter than expected labor market and higher than expected inflation. So that tells us that although it's not, it may not be restrictive enough. Let's see if we put it on the higher lower.

so I Don't get why you didn't raise rates at the last meeting, especially I Think it was a surprise that it was a unanimous decision to hold rates steady. When you said a majority, think that they still need to go farther on raising rates. It's really, just. um, as you get closer and closer to the goal, What we're aiming for is a stance of policy that's sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to two percent over time.

As you get closer to that, you, you get closer to the place where the risks become more imbalanced. So you know. We did 475 basis point hikes in a row starting in June of last year. In December, we moved down to 50.

Then we did three consecutive 25 basis point hikes. So this is really just a continuation. We're going to move. move the decisions a little bit, make them a little bit with a little bit more time in between them in an effort to get more information from the data to see how much restraint is really coming from these.

You know, through the pipeline from Ray hikes that we only made now, in many cases, six, eight, nine months ago. So that's why we did it. So maybe in every other meeting hike, we've not decided that. So yeah, it was not to raise rates at the June meeting, we have not made a decision to go to that.

it may work out that way. It may not work out that way, but I wouldn't take you know moving at consecutive meetings off the table at all. I'm trying Governor Weather I Mean First of all, it's great to talk to you. We haven't heard much from you outside of your policy.

Palestine I Think the world wants to know why you're the global outlier. Here, you have decided to maintain your easier monetary policy in the face because it's ripping their Market higher. So a simple answer would be. although the headlining rate of inflation is about three percent, which is well above the two percent inflation.

Target We think underlying anything new intraday low on the supply, but not yet on the keys. That's why we are keeping policy unchanged at the moment, even though we've seen measures including including Core right higher than the two percent level is also above two percent. But let's say let's look at the rate of increasing wages, which is, uh, an important determinant of underlying inflation. It has risen, but is now running at around two percent below four thousand Four hundred.

If you want a two percent inflation rate wage inflation that's consistent with Bitcoin holding 30 000 each 18.50 Why all above two percent If you're seeing productivity growth rate is positive, so there's still some distance to go, There's just going to be another fake alley policy. Being different than all these policies of your of your colleagues, the Yen has gotten very weak and continues to weaken by the minute. Is it too weak? We monitor the situation very carefully monitoring the situation. Yes for intervention purposes.

No, no, it's the jurisdiction of the ministry. Dude, she is not holding back I Appreciate it. Intervention: President Lagard, How how they should moderate from these levels because we've already seen a nice moderation for you to feel comfortable, taken a pause, or potentially going the other way. Well, this is not what we're considering at the moment.

Okay, but if I look back at what we've covered inflation was I think the highest reading we had was 10.3 We are not 6.1 Headline: Uh, Core has moved a bit down, but we are really looking at both headlines, which is the measurement that we have agreed in our strategy and that is visible for people for the consumers of Europe. But we're also looking at underlying inflation. And on that front, you know we. we are not seeing enough tangible evidence of the fact that underlying inflation, particularly the domestic prices, are stabilizing and moving down.

So we're looking at as many measurements as we can because we want to be in sufficiently restrictive territory for long enough so that we are oil down to 67 a barrel. Oil is getting hit pretty hard. Why is it so sticky? Governor Bailey And why is your inflation rate higher than that of Europe? Well, let me distinguish uh, headline and cool for a moment. So yeah.

I Love this information. I Do expect it to come down. Let me distinguish between headline and course. Now that's a little too deep.

I Mean, what is to do with the fact that these are the highest amount of energy measures in the UK in the years? So obviously some quite quite sort of discreet sort of jumps down. and they gotta work on that inflation in the UK throughout the rest of this year. And indeed, actually, you know energy prices are now somewhat weaker anyway than we thought they thought they would be even quite recently. So it's Core.

That's the issue. Just as Christine has said, core is is much stickier. Uh, I think I Come back to the labor market again. We have a very, very robust labor market and strong labor market in in the UK.

One of the Striking things about the UK is that the size of the labor force is smaller than it was at the outbreak of Covid, so we have had a shrinkage of the labor force. We're seeing some reversal of that now, but we're still not back to where we were pre-covered So that is that is causing. Uh, you know the position of the labor market to be very tight. and I See this when I go around the country talking to firms because I Can you know what What they say to me very frequently is that their plan is to retain labor as much as they can, even in the event of a downturn because they've been concerned and it's been difficult to recruit lately, so that's that's certainly taking place.

So I would say there's a backdrop of a very tight labor market, a small cab bringing things down. also I don't think Brexit is a is a part of that labor market story I think a lot more of it is actually to do with uh, frankly, you know the response to covert Future's Market trying to hold down to four thousand four hours some people come out of the labor force. during the covert period, other countries have tended to see that that position reverse more quickly and more strongly than we've seen in the UK Governor WETA When it comes to the inflation path for you, I mean I know you'd like to see it continue to rise from here, right? What would it take for you to really strongly consider abandoning the yield curve control and negative rates? So we we have a forecast or a projection of inflation path that looks like it's going to go down for a while toward the end of this year on declines in import prices and it's Spirit over to domestic prices. And from there on we are forecasting some increase in the rate of inflation into 24..

But we are less confident about the second part. if we get re if we become reasonably sure about the second part is going to happen, that could be a good reason for a policy change if you see a steady increase. Uh, if we are reasonably sure that the second part is going second part of the forecast is going to. But didn't you learn from from these three that inflation turned out to be not transitory.

Excuse me? I Mean it wasn't one of the lessons from the last year that inflation wasn't transitory and that there are some elements in it was not? Yeah, that there are some elements of it that are sticking and proving difficult to fight, right? So the second part is the sticky pump. but it's still. as I said, we think less than two percent. We hope to make sure I went long in the Futures Market I'm risking the interest.

We've seen some progress in the U.S Certainly, if you look at the headline CPI from nine percent down to four percent I Know you're focused on core, but risk what would make you feel feel better about it that you could remain on hold. So the progress on Headline inflation coming down is certainly welcome and ought to help keep inflation expectations anchored. But I think it actually helps to break to think about core inflation broken into three pieces, the first of which is Goods inflation and we've seen Goods inflation coming down uh, for six months now. and that's because Supply chains are are improving, the shortages are more or less gone, and also because consumption is moving back to services and away from Goods So that part of the story makes sense.

Uh, Housing Services is the next piece and between that and goods, you have a little bit less than half of the total index. and you see now the new rents that are supposedly getting stopped out on that or at lower increases or no increase. And so there's significant, uh, disinflation in the pipeline there. but it's going to take 12 months or 18 months to get there.

The place where we haven't really seen much, my risk is 34. in non-housing Services which is a little more than half of our core Pce inflation index and that's you know, uh, hot Hotel Services you know Financial Services Health Care those things. It's a very labor, generally very labor intensive. Some of it's quite sickly cyclically extensive, but some of it's not.

The point is we really, that's that's where we're not seeing a lot of progress yet. And and the reason is that um, or one explanation for it is that uh, labor costs are really the biggest Factor by far in that in most parts of that sector and we're so what we need to see. We've We've seen a lot of signs of softening in the labor market, but it's just kind of beginning. We need to still get a better alignment of supply and demand in the labor market and see uh, more softening in labor market conditions so that inflationary pressure can can also begin to subscribe.

Are you surprised that hasn't happened yet? After a 500 basis points of tightening already in a little over a year? Yes, Well, I think widely. it's been surprising that inflation has been this persistent. but I think the bottom line is that policy hasn't been restrictive enough for long enough to to start to see those effects. And and you know, the the service sector is not especially, uh, interest rate sensitive by the way as opposed to for example, the good sector.

So we wouldn't expect it to be the first to be affected. but we don't We would ultimately expect as demand softens and as the labor market conditions go more into balance between supply and demand, we would we would expect to see inflationary pressure subside in that sector as well. Do you guys coordinate? Do You Talk Amongst yourselves? Yeah. I mean do you call before policy meetings I Just want to follow up on what Jay said because I I think he's completely right and I think that the the this is what I call the Catch-22 issue where we have a cat unexpected catch down where manufacturing eventually will align or services will rely on manufacturing and that would be the logical consequence of the the lack time that it takes for services to align with Manufacturing and to you know see prices go down in that sector.

The catch up is that of of Labor because it is as Jay said labor intensive. it's generally relatively low productivity and low-skilled jobs in in those sectors and also those jobs that are going to seek the the catching up with pre-covered times and how that catch down catch up will be resolved is going to be crazy. That's important for where inflation is heading because if we see inflation going down in the So in that service sector and movement of wages while increasing increasing at a moderate Pace then we would be in a relatively good place. But that is totally question mark for the moment.

Yeah, it sort of raises the question chair pal about whether we need to see a much higher unemployment rate in the US and you're all dealing with the labor market to finally really break inflation. So you know that the way we think about that is that there seems to be a path still for labor market conditions to soften and for demand and Supply to get back into balance without the kind of large job losses that have uh that have happened I took a position on options, a degenerate level of job openings that still exist in the labor market. So it's still set 1.7 job openings for for every person who counts as unemployed that has been coming down. it's come.

Actually, the number of job openings has come down now by almost almost 2 million. And as you what you're seeing is you're seeing wage pressures. They're still high, but they're com. They're definitely coming down.

You're seeing surveys of workers and businesses. There we go. The labor market is not as tight as it was a year or two ago, so you're seeing a job creation is beginning to come down. There are a number of condition that would suggest that we're that we're getting the softening that we need.

We're getting it slower than we'd expected, but nonetheless, it's happening so it's still a possibility there. but you know they're So it's so uncertain right now that I in my view, the the least unlikely case is that we do find our way to better balance with without a really severe downturn. I Think there's I Think there's a significant probability that there will be a downturn as well though. but it's not to not to me the most likely case that's the hard Landing scenario or just this.

I wasn't even thinking of hard Landing I was thinking of even a even a you know a recession to me is not the most likely case. You just say the r words many forecasters do predict that is is Europe in recession President Oligar, these are my. Targets in the first quarter of 23 was actually completely flat. wasn't Uh, wasn't negative that we did not see a recession.

Um, but it it's It's stagnant to say the least. And uh, and the you know the expectations for Q2 particularly in the industrial sector. If I look at PMI numbers um are not are not particularly uh, are not giving us great hope that there will be a strong recovery. We see a second half of 23 um, up from the first half, certainly.

But yeah, but moderate forecast for the whole uh for the whole year. Do you agree with Chair Powell Do you think you can get away with this tightening cycle without dragging you up into recession? Our Baseline does not include a recession, but it's really it's part of the uh, no recession lady? The risk out there Are you willing to tolerate a recession if you go back to last. Autumn Last November when we did a forecast, we were predicting quite a long but quite shallow recession and the economy, as I said earlier has turned out to be much more resilient so far now. I Think you can.

You know you can sort of point to a number of things that underlie that. One of the things I would point to is the fact that we've had a very sharp falling Energy prices in Europe and that obviously has helped with the the whole question of the terms of trade shock that we've been having. It's it's it's it's done quite a bit to reverse that terms of trade shock and that feeds through International income. So I'm not surprised that we've you know we've had this, uh, this reversal in one sense.

What was surprising, but actually very helpful was of course, yeah, we did have this big Fallen Engine prices on a much better winter frankly than we thought we would have. So yeah, we're going through this year now and in a more resilient position than I expected. so we're not currently forecasting it, but obviously we have to watch it very carefully. How's the Japanese economy faring? I Mean it's very exciting if you look at the Japanese stock market at a 30 decade High What's happening? Fundamentally, 30 decade? Holy shit Fairly well.

I Think she means three decades 30 year. Apart from the contribution 30 decades, some inventory last 300 years have been wild brother. Domestic economy is expanding at a pace slightly above potential I think are driven by pentap demand. We relaxed pandemic related restrictions.

all in in May I'm trying to help the balls break out here. Consumption and investment. There's also a green GX DX related business fixed investment taking place, so investment is, uh, fairly strong at the moment. We thank the economy is going to expand it slightly above potential for some for some time, but there's of course a lot of uncertainties going forward in including what may happen in in Europe and the United States I asked a few guys coordinated or or talked about monetary policy before I mean is that does that happen? Should it? should it be more coordinated because you're all doing different things right now? Well, I mean it's not I mean obviously what we don't do is say what should we do because we're all setting a monetary policy for our areas and that's the yeah, that's the law in all of our areas actually, so we don't do that.

But we do talk a lot and I think it's important I mean it's important at all times, but it's particularly important in recent times at the moment, because we're facing such big Global shocks, We're going to try the Baby Blue today. Uh, you know they differ a little bit in terms of their impact and their effect, but there's some huge Global events going on that are affecting all of us, so you know I Think it's You know we do talk quite a lot and we see each other quite a bit because it's important. we do that and you know we share wisdom on how we're sort of interpreting the things that are going on around us. We are in a flexible exchange rate Laurel So we do the policies independently.

but of course we we exchange information, which is very, very valuable. Do you think that that Governor Waita? do you think that they are over tightening? No. dude, are you trying to get them to fist fight on stage? No, you don't. You approve of the of the policy.

You've had a very tight labor market for a long time in. Japan Even before covet yes, demographic demographics, she's not messing around to tighten the labor market for for quite a long flight. Did I just get screwed? Uh-oh and it's going to continue this way for a while. I mean the economic conversation.

It gets into an interesting