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WILL NIO BREAKOUT OR BREAKDOWN?
What is next for this monster EV stock?
In this video, I share my current NIO option position (on Robinhood), and I'm down BIG! After going over more of my general thoughts as they relate to Nio, I do a full technical breakdown of the stock. I highlight all of the key price levels that will be in play over the next few days. Enjoy!
Let me know your thoughts on Nio Stock in a comment below!
#Nio #NioStock #NioPricePrediction
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Welcome welcome. My name is matt and on this channel we talk about stocks trading and investing today. I will specifically be focusing on neo because we're really not seeing the follow through that i expected from the neo day event in this video. I will be sharing the details of my newest neo position and then i will be doing a full technical breakdown of the stock i'll be mapping out the key price levels that will be in play over the next few trading days.

But before i get into all that, if you enjoy this type of stock market content, don't forget to join the moon gang by hitting the subscribe button. My goal is to hit 10 000 subscribers by the end of january, and your help with that would be truly appreciated. Also, if you want free stocks, make sure to check out those links to both weeble and robin hood in the description of this video, and now that i got all of that out of the way, let's get started alrighty you know me, i try to be as Transparent as i possibly can so, let's hop right into the details of my new neo position, or, should i better say, neo predicament. Of course, neo trades on the ticker and i o and the stock is currently just below 61 per share.

Here is my new position on the stock. It is five call options, but before we hop into this, let's rewind a bit, so i can give you a better foundation as a quick side. Note, if you use robinhood, you can see your history involving a stock by scrolling down and then simply clicking on show more so heading into the weekend. That was the neo day event.

I owned five call options with a strike price of 56 and they expired on january 15th. The premium that i paid per contract was three dollars, which means that the position as a whole cost me 1500 to make then fast forward to monday the neo day event was a success and the stock gapped up, but there really wasn't much follow through and i Didn't quite like the action that i was seeing, so i sold all those options in two separate chunks. The first trunk was at 8.75, and that was two of them and then the second chunk was three of them, and that was at 8, 10, a pop. So if you do the math on all of this, that means that i profited 2 680, but i really wouldn't call it a profit because right away, i took that money and rolled it into another neo position.

This time the strike price was 75. The expiration date was february 19th, and the premium that i paid per contract was five dollars and fifty cents, which means that the position as a total cost me two thousand seven hundred and forty five dollars. The reason i did this was because i really didn't like the action i was seeing on monday after the neo day event, but my gut still told me to be bullish. Now i don't know if i'm being a bit too optimistic or what's going on, because as of right now, the position is down over a thousand dollars.

Do you think that i should cut these losses or ride it out? Because this is just a momentary decline? I would truly love to get your feedback in a comment below. In the meantime, though, let's check out, what's going on in the charts, okie dokie, the stock market just entered power hour and neil's, really not having the best day, it's down 2.3 percent and don't forget that you can help it out by dropping a like all jokes Aside, the support really does help out this channel. Anyway, new is trading just below 61. and yes, it has had a few red days, but i don't want you to lose sight of the bigger picture thus far.


In 2021, it's up almost 25, which is very, very good. This is the current technical situation that neostock is in for those of you who are new to the channel. Here's a quick recap of what's been going on. Neo has been publicly traded since 2018 and it really came onto people's radar in june of 2020 and for quite a while.

It was following this white trend line and then in october, when the rest of the overall market and specifically the ev sector, was struggling neo. Actually had a gap up and technical breakout and posted a new relative high just below 30 dollars, and then it came down, reaffirmed this trend line and from there it was off to the races. The first major hiccup came on november 13th, and this is when citron research came out with some bearish tweets about the company, but i really wouldn't worry about that, because they've also said negative things about tesla and nvidia and look at where those stocks are at now. Anyway, support was eventually found at 45 and the stock bounced all the way up to its last all-time high of 57.20.

From there the stock did sell off, and support was eventually found at 38, which is exactly where neo bounced. On november 9th. From there we had a small bounce and then the stock actually undershot that support again at 38 and rallied all the way up to 49.40. And we saw the formation of this triangle, which is also referred to as a bullish pendant, because they commonly break upwards.

And that's exactly what we saw in neo following this breakout, we did see neo struggle a bit just below 50, which makes sense because it's exactly where it was rejected three times before, and then this was followed by the bulls, pushing it higher and the bulls and Bears battled it out for four days at 54.20, which is where the stock was rejected on november 13th, but then we had the neo day event and the stock gapped up and made its current all-time high of 66.99. Since then, the stock has slightly been selling off. I think it's better called consolidation, but the main technical development that i just need to bring to your attention is going on in the rsi. If you look at the last all-time high of 5720 and now the current all-time high just below 67, the stock has clearly gone up, but the rsi hasn't.

This is referred to as bearish divergence, and it means that there's less buying strength here than there was here and it's commonly indicative of a future decline or consolidation now to be completely fair. No technical indicator is perfect and there's also no rules on how long this consolidation slash decline has to last i'm just worried at the moment, because the last time we saw this was from november 13th. Up until november 24th, the stock went higher, the rsi didn't, and the sell-off was a bit of a considerable one. Now, i'm in no way saying that this has to happen again, but there is a chance that it could.


Obviously, i don't want it to because i own those five call options, and i would much rather prefer that a new support is found somewhere between 56 and 60 dollars and then that will allow the rsi a chance to cool off and from there once a foundation. Is built, the stock can shoot higher and not only post a new all-time high, but we very much wanted to bring the rsi with it to get rid of this bearish divergent setup. I don't know if traders and investors are concerned about neo raising money through those convertible bonds, but all i really know is that the neo day event was an absolute blockbuster and i expected quite a bit more. Hopefully, eventually there is follow-through and now to get a better idea of what neil might do over the next couple trading days.

Let's see what's going on in the 4-hour chart, if i'm being completely honest, this particular time frame makes me much more confident in my bullish position on neo from late october, up until mid-november new was in this upward channel, which is also referred to as a bear Flag and that's because they commonly break downwards, there's a good chance that this one was particularly prompted by those negative tweets from citron. But it really didn't matter because a new support was found at 45 and from there neal rallied all the way up to just below 58. from there. The stock did sell off in this downward channel, which is referred to as a bull flag, and that's because they commonly break upward.

We saw that action play out in neo, but this one was kind of weird because after the breakout, the stock just rode the top of this trend line all the way down to an undershoot of 38. from there. Neo did bounce and we saw the formation of this triangle, which is called a bullish pendant and that's because they commonly break upwards and we saw that take place right at the end of the year. If you fast forward a bit, the stock did push higher, and this was mainly because of the excitement surrounding the neo day event and then, after the neo day event the stock gapped up and had a new all-time high just below 67..

Since then, the stock has been selling off so why in the world, am i saying that i'm excited about my position? Well, that's twofold! First, on this time frame, there is no bearish divergence in the rsi, as you can see on this spike up to the current all-time high, the rsi was higher than all of the previous spikes. Hence there's no bearish divergence and second, this is the third bullish pennant. As in triangle that we've seen and the last two times, we saw that the stock did break upward, so i really wouldn't be surprised if we saw that on time number three. Obviously i can't tell the future so there's no guarantee that the scenario will play out this way, i'm just using the past patterns as some form of blueprint and mapping it onto what should happen now.


I'm also looking for support to be found somewhere between 58 and 59 and from there i'm looking for a test of this white trend line and then eventually a breakout. If this bullish situation does come to fruition, i would recommend paying attention to 46, followed by 47. For points of resistance and on the other hand, if i am completely wrong, look for support to be found at the bottom end of this trend line, and then that would be followed by 54 20.. As things currently stand, my personal recommendation moving forward would be to pay close attention to neo filling out this new triangle, because eventually it will break whether that's up or down that'll.

Give us a better idea of the next major move in neo stock price also make sure that you're watching for any divergent setups in the rsi. Now i'm in no way saying that this will happen soon or perhaps at all. But if, in some weird way, neil were to retrace all the way back down to this support at 50, that would be an excellent investment opportunity. Once again, i'm not saying that this has to happen, but if it does, you can bet that i'll be buying.

As many shares as i possibly can, i would truly love to get your thoughts on neil personally, i thought there would be much more follow-through in the stock following the neo-day event, but clearly i was wrong. Do you think that the stock is about to drop, or do you think that this is just a small period of consolidation and we're about to see a new all-time high? Let me know in a comment below as a quick reminder: if you want five free stocks, make sure you check out those links to both weeble and robin hood. The promotional deal will be ending on january 15th and, of course, if you enjoy this, video don't forget to drop a like, and if you haven't already don't forget to join the moon gang by hitting the subscribe button. I really appreciate you spending a portion of your day with me thanks for watching and until next time best of luck in the markets.


20 thoughts on “Nio stock price prediction: big move coming?! // nio analysis option trade review”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Shae Akins says:

    Matt am on the same boat as you. I think we should buy a put to gain some of our losses and sell our calls Tuesday. Your thoughts?

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars chin kuo says:

    i bought 80 call at 2022/1. u know u r beting. so do they. they r killing short term call!!!

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Village Bier Garten Restaurant fb Stephan says:

    better cut at open on Tuesday. If you didn't know, theres a war at hand and China companies are at risk. Should all play out next week. The Risk is too high per the reward. Thank me later

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Glorifikatus says:

    There was the Nio Day hype and now we are getting correction, presidental politics, most stocks dropped, people riding emotional dump. If you do some fundamental analysis there are so many bullish factors coming soon. If you are in the red truly think that you need to hold and be patient.

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Lucian Limbutu says:

    GAXY is the future,this stock is a monster,this is the future.
    GAXY to the moon🚀🚀🚀🚀 on near future.
    Buy now,this is amazing stock guys.

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Technology Innovation says:

    You were in hyperspeed (vs slow motion in most of your vids) in this video! Good content as always!

    Nio will pull back to the 57 support over the next week or two before we see another run.

    Always buy your contracts with an extra couple of weeks – it's cheap insurance and helps with this exact situation you're in!

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars I am Grutt’ says:

    Matt, I am. a new subscriber to your channel. (And long on Telsa since late 2019) Have you reviewed FISKER? Why is no-one talking about this US EV Company? Thanks!

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Mantas Bekešius says:

    Ride it out, we just need catalysts. And we have them, but not officially announced. Mr. Eq really likes to keep things to hes chest until its completed

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jbosquez611 Bosquez says:

    I think a pull back is needed. The lack of interest on the convertible loans and not all of them qualify really stopped the bull run. So unless they make an amendment to those note. Or strong numbers in q1 reports I don’t see it going to make a strong move back up. Started position with 50 shares. Reinvested to 140 from small pull backs over the last few months. My target entry is 50.00 per share. But I’ll need to see the baseline is holding. Or wait till he low forties. I’m still long Nio.

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Eddie Heath says:

    Love the video Matt, cant help but think the stock will drop lower soon. I don't tend to hold stocks for very long myself. But i think once the vaccines start rolling the majority of investors will get back into cyclical stocks. I think EV stock prices will increase but not at the current pace.

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars SNOOK AROO says:

    sorry i wish i understood opitions bettr but i dont a video would b good on them one that was done almost child like,lots of us out here dont see and understand theroy. anyway i enjoy ur vids ur analysis cant b beat thanks again

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Steve Snow says:

    Ouch $75 for 19 of feb.. cut losses while u can champ. And I’m invested heavily in NIO myself 👍👍👍

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Dick Large says:

    NIO is about to blast off🚀, NIO is building a second factory next to the existing factory. Suppose to put out 100,000 cars 2 shifts a day.

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Adrian Z says:

    I'd hold. There's no bad news at all. Also, Nio has been accumulating tons of cash lately. With their contract with JAG expiring in May, I'm predicting a move to increase their manufacturing capacity big time. I see some major catalysts coming soon.

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Muhammad Zunnun Ibna Mostafa Mahmud says:

    Hi..I have added a different bank account in Robinhood by clicking your free stock link, but I didn't receive any free stock 🙁

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Saurabh Ghosh says:

    Thanks Matt, I made 15 percent on the days to NIO event. Yes it went down, but market is saying it will reach $300 this year. lets hope

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Kronic Nacho says:

    Should I buy now or should I wait to see if it drops a little more, and is it better to buy in shares or dollar amounts? I was gonna buy dollar amounts.

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jason Foster says:

    Got my fingers crossed, lost a lot of money on stupid, poorly executed trades this week and need a pop to keep my account above the PDT cutoff.

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Giovanni says:

    Why isn’t anyone talking about NMGRF look at it now please 🙏20x It has to do a lot with graphite which is needed for electric vehicles . Thoughts ?

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars TFC says:

    Here’s what I think happened: The positive NIO DAY!!!! Shouts were so ubiquitous it became a positive echo chamber with everyone repeating how exciting it was going to be. And it was good, but some evaluations have said that the new sedan just isn’t that exciting, it’s expensive and it’s a year out. That’s not exciting. So while there was a NIO DAY stock bump it was underwhelming and therefore we are seeing the weak hands fold. Just like in poker. Enough people were underwhelmed that the weak hands have been exiting all week because it’s clear this is not going to be a TSLA, at least not yet. Also, those convertible bonds, the ones that do pay interest, those will be worth $97 at maturity.

    I don’t know what you should do at this point because I don’t understand options well enough to realistically evaluate what you’ve gotten yourself into. If I knew options and made what you made on those calls, I would have banked that money and watched for a while because the day after NIO DAY was disappointing. Even today, when you could have bought in there were only 99 million shares traded, and average volume is 182 million. Apple average volume is 129 million, Tesla average is 50 million. ??? So where are all of the NIO buyers? I don’t know. But I’m going to keep my ten shares. Tomorrow I’m adding to Repligen (RGEN), FUTU, TWLO and SWKS assuming no catastrophes.

    All my best Matt

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