What's going on moon gang welcome back to another dumb money update and if i, if i'm gon na shoot you straight today, was no bueno in the market, not a good day. It seems like everything was in the red. Now this particular update video. It will be a bit longer, but there's a lot of things i want to dive into, and i truly believe that they're all important so we're going to save the amc.

Jamie talk the technicals, the short interest of flow for the end of this video. If you want to fast forward to that, but at the start of it i kind of want to dive into what happened in the overall market today and more specifically, well, i'm kind of excited about tomorrow, at least from a statistical standpoint. So with all that being said, let's hop right into it, alrighty, so just for a little bit of foundation. Amc closed up the day at 40, 29 and jimmy was at 190 220 but, like i said, we're going to save that for the end of the video.

So let's talk about the overall market you're going to see a bit of a pattern here: s p 500 gapped down sold off kind of clawed back in the last half hour of the day, ended up down. 1.67 percent nasdaq 100 same overall pattern dropped 2. At the end of the day. Russell 2000 same pattern dropped two point: three: eight percent.

Now these huge indices, whenever you see a move greater or less than like one percent like the absolute value of one percent, i mean that that's a notable move, it's very, very rare to see an entire index move more than one percent, whether up or down, then, Like so the fact that they're all red by considerable magnitude that tells you that something pretty considerable, is going on and a lot of people are blaming it right here on evergrand. What china developer, evergrand debt crunch means for u.s investors, so very very quickly. What you need to know about this, it's a gigantic real estate company in china, and it has about 300, it's technically 305 billion dollars in debt, that's billion with a b. So if they end up defaulting on all this, that means there's a lot of players out there who are going to get burned.

That's a huge magnitude i mean i was reading a study that that's about two percent of china's entire gdp. This is a huge monstrosity and it seems as if the house of cards is coming down. Evergrand is facing a default on its debt burden of roughly 300 billion. That crisis has echoes of lehman brothers bankruptcy.

Ed yardini says it's unlikely. Evergrand will have a fallout quite as severe as the lehman bankruptcy when the global economy and credit markets collapse and said he sees it as analogous to a different event a decade even earlier, if it's similar to anything it's similar to long-term capital management, which is the Calamity that occurred in 1998, but that was dealt with very quickly by the federal reserve and the major banks, and it didn't have any global implications. Well right here, six and one half dozen to another i mean i could argue that there's already global implications. I mean the entire u.s market sold off the european market sold off, so it depends on how you're gon na define that, but really the connection between all three of these.

It's the same scenario where you have a small group of people who think that they're, better and smarter than everyone else, they're working to line their own pockets. Their frankenstein monster that they created end up falling down and the average global citizen is the one left over to foot the bill to me. It just seems like a repeat of the same old story that we've heard before so. Obviously this has had a negative impact on the market, but the story doesn't end there don't forget that the u.s is having its own problems.

What the federal debt ceiling showdown could mean for you, congress must suspend or raise the debt ceiling or the country runs the risk of default. If lawmakers can't reach a deal, it will increase, borrowing, costs, delay social security checks and the veteran benefits and disrupt financial markets across the board. Stop me if you've heard this story, but once again there is political gridlock. They don't seem to care too much they're on recess, i'm sure they're still happy collecting their paychecks going on vacation when they want, and still the average person, at least in the us, we're suffering from this.

It's the same story, time and time again, so that's not good for the economy, but wait. It does not stop there. This wednesday we are having the fomc minute, so basically the federal reserve's having another meeting and we're trying to find out if they're going to remain as dovish as they've been before. So when you're dovish you're going to keep interest rates, super super low, it does help with economic growth and their entire.

Their entire point is to kind of keep unemployment as low as they possibly can, and this time around they've been very, very dovish to the point that interest rates will still, of course, stay low. But it's the question of like we've been hearing these rumors. Are these little bit of murmurs about? Are they truly going to taper their asset purchases? Are they going to stop all these bond purchases that have been backstopping the economy? We might find out more information about that on wednesday. Here's how i personally see it if they say we are moving forward with the tapering we're going to stop it completely, not good, and then there's kind of a gradient like whoa, okay, we might do it kind of medium or maybe very slow where people it depends.

How digestible this is to the stock market of like how aggressive will they be or won't they be with their tapering? So that's what i'll specifically be interested in on wednesday of this week, but just so you know also of wednesday this week. Well, the asian markets are on holiday right now and that's actually when evergreen will start trading again so, depending on how much their local population and market participants are going to freak out. You never know so kind of some interesting action on wednesday, and i also think before that, at least in the us markets. We're gon na have interesting action on tuesday september 21st, but let me dive into that a second, but just so you know there is a fourth headwind that markets are riding into right now, right here, seasonality.

So if you look at the second half of september, typically very, very bearish, so between a huge debt crunch, going on in a massive company, evergrand 300 billion dollars that people might just not get their payment, we have the debt ceiling political gridlock in the u.s. We have fomc uncertainty and seasonal weakness. Well, when you throw all four of those together, that's not that's not the most bullish recipe out there and i'm bringing all this up, because i don't want people freaking out thinking. Something is specifically going on with amc and jamie.

This is the entire market, pull up a random ticker, very, very good chance that it was in the red today and today, being monday september 20th, we dropped. I mean every major entity dropped over 1 2. That does bring up something pretty interesting, that i think it is worthwhile to discuss, and i have that right here. What i have in front of you is, i did a little a little back testing and what this back testing was there's a good chance.

You heard of the term turn around tuesday from the high level what is turn around tuesday? Basically, we people many people. There are many books. Many people have talked about this previously. They've noticed a pattern that, if monday is weak a red monday commonly it leads to a positive green tuesday.

So what i did here was actually get some facts and what i did was saying: hey if monday drops by more than one percent, what is the chance of tuesday being green so monday down by more than one percent? What is the statistical performance of buying tuesday morning at open and then selling tuesday afternoon when the market closes? Here? Are the results from that and i ran it from 2005 until 2021, and i just did this when markets went digital but anyway, this trade monday being read by more than one percent buying tuesday morning selling tuesday afternoon has fired 92 times out of those 92 trades. 57.6 were profitable, so better than flipping a coin, but what's interesting is the profit factor is 2.1, so basically for every dollar lost more than two was gained. Pretty interesting, don't get too bogged down in the size of these profits. I basically just did it on a 100 lot size trading spy.

You could have done 150, whatever. What you care about is the profit factor, the percent of profitability and really the number of trades. So right there here are the stats behind turn around tuesday. There's a clear market edge in trading it.

So that's why i think tomorrow, tuesday september 21st, statistically there is an edge in betting on it being green. So if you're a betting person like i am uh, maybe there's something you could do with this data. But please remember: i'm not a financial advisor, i'm not a fortune teller, i'm just a person who happens to know how to code a little bit, and i did some back testing for you, but i just wanted to give all of you listening watching right now. Some hard facts of what happens on turn around tuesday, all right.

So now that you have a better idea of what's happening with the overall market and why tomorrow could be interesting with it going green and then maybe some craziness on wednesday and for the remainder of the week. Let's talk about amc and jamie specifically right here. All right so amc from a technical perspective. It got pushed below this trend line that was formed between august 11th and august 20th, but look at that.

It retracted all the way back up to this trend line closed right at it bouncing off of the support at 39.. So i like that, it shows that we had demand come in at one of the weakest points of the day and push it right back up where it's still technically pretty interesting. So i'm 100 looking for this to hold and then what i'm really looking for is a gap fill play up to 44 20, which is the low from september 17th on friday, because if you see today, the high didn't overlap with the low from friday. So i'm very much looking for amc to get up there sooner rather than later, and of course, on top of that, we do have these other layers that we've called out before, but mainly i'm watching 45.

Then 48, then 50.. But just so you know we still have that support at 39 and we also have additional support at 37.. One of the most common questions i got today was today's sell-off in amc because of shorts. I don't think that's really what the numbers indicate they borrowed.

971. 000 shares but the net return. The net return was 2.21 million, so the short interest is 18.55 percent, but with this being a sizable net return well, not huge, but at least relative to the amount of borrowed shares, i'm not seeing a crazy amount of shorts. I think some people did short it today, but i still wholeheartedly believe that this all relates to the general market sell-off and nothing with amc.

Specific and honestly, i would argue it's the exact same thing going on with gamestop, but anyway the utilization is 91.64 and the shares on loan, given this today is probably around 104 million, and just so you know the average age of all. These shares on loan currently 66 days in terms of the flow it did favor. The bears today makes sense. A lot of the bearish action was favored today in the entire market, the premium was 53.5 bearish and 46.5 bullish.

Just so, you know before i move on from amc with the turnaround tuesday phenomenon that i was pitching for the overall market as iwm the qs and spy go green tomorrow, which i think is the mathematical odds. I think we're going to seem see the exact same thing in a lot of individual socks, including amc and gme, speaking of which here is gamestop, bouncing off of the support between 188 and 190 closed out the day at 192. I'm looking forward to retake this golden level at 200, gamestop really really likes it and then from there i'm back to watching 212 to 215. So we still have the support 188, and there is additional support at 178.

today, in reference to gme, they borrowed 197 for a net of 131. The short interest is 12.46 utilization 34 and shares on loan of 6.68 million in terms of the flow once again, very, very similar to amc it favored the bears same thing 54 to 46, so roughly the same numbers, so i just wanted to get that out there. So you know more about the truth of the situation, the actual facts and numbers and not just random guesses of what did or didn't happen in the market, the options market, the flow really the general market. I think there's a lot of info out there, that it's producing fun, fear, uncertainty and, and it's just because people aren't grounding their statements and opinions.

In fact, so that's what i try to do with these update videos is try to give some people some actual fact, but for me, amc and jimmy do i think this play is over absolutely not. What we saw today was a general market, sell-off, amc and jimmy happen to be victims of that heading into tomorrow. Specifically, i think that the odds do strongly favor the bulls, but let's see how this plays out. Remember not a financial advisor with all.

That being said, i would love to get your thoughts on anything that i mentioned in a comment below and remember until i catch you next time from me and chair best of luck in the markets, you.